Optimising Passenger Transport Information to …...The Expert Workshop is the second step of the OPTIMISM Delphi study. Section 1 of this report illustrates the aims of the Workshop

Optimising Passenger Transport Information to Materialize Insights for Sustainable Mobility

Coordination and Support Action FP7- 284892

Delphi Expert Workshop: Passenger Mobility Scenarios for Europe

Workpackage No.

WP3 Workpackage Title

Demand and supply factors for passenger transport and mobility patterns – status quo and foresight

Task No. 3.2 Task Title Future trends and their requirements for passenger transport

Start Date: 15/01/2012 Revision Date: 05/10/2012

Authors P. Delle Site, M.V. Salucci (CTL); D. Morris (CUE); A. Van Grinsven, A. Schroten (CE DELFT); M. Hepting, M. Redelbach (DLR); E. Arsenio (LNEC); E. Tavlaki (SIGNOSIS); L. Akkermans (TML); V. Carabias, M. Hoppe, T. Seppänen (ZHAW).

Status (F: final; D: draft; RD: revised draft)

F

Distribution PU

Document ID / File Name OPTIMISM_Delphi_Expert_Workshop.docx

Filename: OPTIMISM_Delphi_Expert_Workshop Print date: 05/10/2012 18:35:00 2/46

Table of contents Foreword .......................................................................................................................... 41 Aims and methodology ........................................................................................... 5

1.1 OPTIMISM scenario building process and the Delphi study ...................................... 51.2 Aims of the Expert Workshop ..................................................................................... 91.3 Methodology and organisation of the Workshop ........................................................ 9

1.3.1 Selection of experts ....................................................................................................... 101.3.2 World Café sessions ...................................................................................................... 111.3.3 Electronic voting session ............................................................................................... 15

2 Results .................................................................................................................... 162.1 World Café sessions .................................................................................................. 16

2.1.1 Socio-demographics and spatial structure .................................................................... 162.1.2 Politics and economy .................................................................................................... 192.1.3 Energy and environment (including fuels) .................................................................... 232.1.4 ICT for society and the economy ................................................................................... 262.1.5 Transport policy and planning ...................................................................................... 292.1.6 ICT transport applications ............................................................................................ 34

2.2 Electronic voting ........................................................................................................ 372.3 Impacts of Megatrends on passenger transport systems and mobility ....................... 39

2.3.1 Impact Analysis ............................................................................................................. 392.3.2 Importance of Megatrends ............................................................................................ 412.3.3 Vulnerability of Key Factors ......................................................................................... 42

Annex 1 OPTIMISM Workshop Agenda ................................................................... 44Annex 2 List of participants ......................................................................................... 45 List of Figures Figure 1 - OPTIMISM Conceptual Framework .......................................................... 6Figure 2 – Scenario building: Graphical representation of the selection of scenario

variables. .............................................................................................................. 7Figure 3 – Outline of the OPTIMISM scenario building process ................................ 8Figure 4 - Geographical distribution of experts invited to the Workshop. ................ 11Figure 5 – The World Café layout ............................................................................. 13Figure 6 – A view of the World Café morning session. ............................................ 15Figure 7 – Socio-demographics and spatial structure: average scores for the

importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors .......................................... 17Figure 8 – Socio-demographics and spatial structure: standard deviation of experts’

ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors .................. 17Figure 9 – Politics and economy: average scores for the importance and uncertainty

of trends of key factors ...................................................................................... 20Figure 10 – Politics and economy: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the

importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors .......................................... 20Figure 11 – Energy and environment: average scores for the importance and

uncertainty of trends of key factors ................................................................... 23Figure 12 – Energy and environment: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the

importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors .......................................... 24


Figure 13 – ICT for society and economy: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors ................................................................... 26

Figure 14 – ICT for society and economy: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors .................................... 27

Figure 15 – Transport policy and planning: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors. .................................................................. 30

Figure 16 – Transport policy and planning: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors .................................... 31

Figure 17 – Final list of candidate factors for the final voting .................................. 38Figure 18 – Results of the electronic voting .............................................................. 39 List of tables Table 1 - Passenger transport system key characteristics ............................................ 6Table 2 – Scenario building: Example of description of scenarios ............................. 8Table 3 – Range of experts’ characteristics according to the selection criteria ......... 10Table 4 – Topics of the Information Café morning session ...................................... 14Table 5 – Topics of the Information Café afternoon session ..................................... 14Table 6 - Socio-demographics and spatial structure: table relating to the eight

candidate factors ................................................................................................ 18Table 7 - Politics and economy: table relating to the eight candidate factors ........... 21Table 8 - Energy and environment: table relating to the eight candidate factors ...... 24Table 9 - ICT for society and economy: table relating to the eight candidate factors 27Table 10 - Transport policy and planning: table relating to the eight candidate factors

........................................................................................................................... 31Table 11 - ICT transport applications: table relating to the eight candidate factors .. 35Table 12 – Links between Megatrends and selected key factors ............................... 40Table 13 – Key factors ranked by rating concerning impact from Megatrends (key

factors marked in grey are around the average of rating) .................................. 43


Foreword This document is the report on the results of the Expert Workshop held in Rome on 18th

OPTIMISM project is a Coordination and Support Action of the 7th EU Framework Programme. The aim of OPTIMISM is to recommend strategies and policy measures for integrating and optimising transport systems. The focus is on the assessment of the potential impacts on passenger mobility that might be expected from developments in co-modality and ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) solutions for transport.

September 2012 within OPTIMISM project. The title of the Workshop is “Passenger Mobility Scenarios for Europe”.

A specific work package of OPTIMISM (WP3) is focused on building future mobility scenarios which will be used to model the impacts of ICT-based co-modality strategies.

The scenario building process started with the definition of a research scheme (OPTIMISM D3.1) which defined the framework for the analysis of factors shaping passenger transport systems and mobility patterns in order to provide an outlook on possible future developments.

The first activity of this process was the identification of such key factors which ended with a list of more than 50 items.

The next step was a literature review to collect evidence of passenger transport key factors and causal patterns (i.e. the identification of the interrelationships between key factors). During this activity, key factor trends with the characteristics of megatrends were also identified. Megatrends are fundamental, long lasting (more than 10 years), global or international transformation processes with a certain direction affecting multiple aspects of life.

In parallel to the literature review, the OPTIMISM Delphi study to build future mobility scenarios started with the design and implementation of a first expert online questionnaire, whose main objective was to collect experts’ opinions on the importance of key factors (selected from the list developed in D3.1) in terms of their impact on passenger mobility and the uncertainty of the trend related to the factor. 131 experts participated to this questionnaire and the results were summarised in the OPTIMISM document “D3.3 Annex 1 - Results of the Delphi first online questionnaire”.

The Expert Workshop is the second step of the OPTIMISM Delphi study.

Section 1 of this report illustrates the aims of the Workshop and how it was organised, and also provides an overview of the scenario building process. The core of the Expert Workshop programme was World Café discussions and an electronic voting session.

Section 2 shows the main results of the Expert Workshop: the outcomes of the World Café conversations, the result of the electronic voting, and the results of the assessment of impacts of Megatrends on transport systems and mobility.


1 Aims and methodology

1.1 OPTIMISM scenario building process and the Delphi study The Expert Workshop is the second step of the OPTIMISM Delphi study.

The objective of the OPTIMISM Delphi study is to support the future mobility scenario building process.

The “exploratory scenarios” approach (that is building scenarios starting from past and present trends of passenger transport factors) was preferred to the alternative “normative scenarios” approach (that is building scenarios on the basis of a desired or feared future vision).

The “exploratory” approach is based on a number of assumptions:

• future is not only a continuation of past relationships and dynamics, because it can also be shaped by human action (policy);

• exploration of the future can inform the decisions of the present (policy advice);

• uncertainty implies a variety of “possible” futures mapping a “possibility space”;

• scenario building involves both rational analysis and subjective judgments and, consequently, requires participative and interactive methods, and is based on evidence (knowledge from literature/models), expertise (knowledge from experts) and creativity (for example: identification of wild cards, i.e. low likelihood high-impact events).

The starting point of the scenario building process is the definition of the conceptual framework, which defines the system for which possible future scenarios will be built.

This system consists of four main blocks (Figure 1):

• Key external factors, which relate to those variables which are not specific to the passenger transport system, but have impacts on it and contribute to shape its development;

• Policy actions, which are the fundamental instrument, implemented at various geographical scales, to coordinate and steer the development of social and economic systems and naturally the development of transport systems;

• Passenger transport system key characteristics;

• Impacts on sustainability criteria (GHG emissions etc.).


Figure 1 - OPTIMISM Conceptual Framework

These four blocks interacts in different ways. Key external factors and policies shape the passenger transport system. Inside the passenger transport system the interaction between demand and supply results in performances and mobility patterns (Table 1).

Table 1 - Passenger transport system key characteristics Passenger transport system key characteristics

Transport demand (mobility and trip choices)

Transport supply Performances Mobility patterns

Driving licence and car ownership Vehicle type purchased Frequency, destination, travel time, mode, route, trip chain

Infrastructure provision Public transport services ITS services for inter- and comodality Prices (fuel, charges, fares)

Congestion and trip times Door-to-door service quality: information availability, comfort, reliability, cleanliness, security, ease of transfer Accessibility to transport systems and sustainable modes Accessibility to households and activities

Total trips, trips by car and by other modes Total mileage, mileage by car and by other modes Flows by mode Collective transport patronage Modal split Vehicle occupancy

The resulting transport system key characteristics generate various impacts on sustainability criteria (e.g. on the level of GHG emissions).

After having defined the conceptual framework, the scenario building process continues with the following 6 activities:


1. identification of all driving forces (key external factors, policy actions, transport demand factors and transport supply factors);

2. analysis of trends in driving forces and in the resulting mobility patterns;

3. analysis of the links between driving forces and their impact on passenger transport system performances and mobility patterns;

4. ranking of driving forces according to their importance in terms of impact on passenger transport system and mobility patterns, and the uncertainty of their trend;

5. selection of scenario variables, i.e. the dimensions or axes along which the scenarios differ (these dimensions are the top driving forces in the ranking made in step 4 in terms of the most significant combination of importance and uncertainty);

6. description of scenarios, this last step is concerned with the characterisation of scenarios by defining the trend of all key factors in the scenarios defined by the scenario variables (this step builds on the result of step 1 and step 3).

Figure 2 shows the graphical representation of step 5 “selection of scenario variables”.

Unc

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of t

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end

rela

ted

to t

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fact

or

Hig

h

Low

Low High

Impact on the performances of the passenger transport system and on mobility patterns

Figure 2 – Scenario building: Graphical representation of the selection of scenario variables.

The horizontal axis represents the importance of key factors in terms of impacts on transport systems and mobility patterns, while the vertical axis represents the uncertainty of the trends related to the factors. The “candidate” factors for being selected as scenario variables are those highlighted in red, which fall in the upper right part of the chart and are characterized by high level of importance and uncertainty.

Table 2 shows an example of description of scenarios. In this example, the two key factors selected as the two scenario variables are: 1) Economic growth and 2) ICT deployment. Four different scenarios can be defined by combining the two opposite trends for each of the two scenario variables: recession and growth (in the case of Economic growth) and partial (low) deployment and full (high) deployment (in the case of ICT deployment).


Table 2 – Scenario building: Example of description of scenarios Ec

onom

ic g

row

th Hig

h UG – Unrestricted growth

High economic growth coupled with rapid technological progress; there is little public support for promotion of a sustainable society

SG – Sustainable growth

High economic growth coupled with fast technological development, there is a strong impetus for a sustainable society

Low

BAU – Business as usual

Limited economic dynamism, coupled with limited technological development, there is no desire to push for increased development of a sustainable society

SB – Sustainable balance

Limited economic dynamism coupled with limited technological development, there is also a policy for the development of a sustainable society

Low High

Importance of sustainability principles

Figure 3 summarises the above-mentioned 6 steps relating to the scenario building process approach adopted by OPTIMISM. The tools used to carry out the relevant activities are a desk research (literature review) and a Delphi study consisting of a workshop and two on-line surveys.

The Expert Workshop was scheduled between the first and the second online survey.

The objective of the literature review was to collect evidence on passenger transport key factors and causal patterns (i.e. the identification of the interrelationships between key factors). During this activity, key factor trends with the characteristics of megatrends were also identified. Megatrends are fundamental, long lasting (more than 10 years), global or international transformation processes with a certain direction affecting multiple aspects of life.

Figure 3 – Outline of the OPTIMISM scenario building process

The objective of the first expert online questionnaire was to collect expert opinions on the importance of critical factors in terms of their impact on passenger mobility, and the uncertainty of the trend related to the factor. Experts were asked to rate a selection of the key factors identified in OPTIMISM D3.1 from the scale of "Not at all important" to "Extremely important" and from the scale of "Not at all


uncertain" to "Completely uncertain". Since only a selection of key factors was provided, experts were given the possibility to suggest up to two additional factors that they might consider critical and that were not already included in the list. 131 experts participated to the first online questionnaire. The results have been summarised in the OPTIMISM document “D3.3 Annex 1- Results of the Delphi first online questionnaire”, which was circulated to experts before the Workshop. Summarising, the results consist of a number of charts showing for each factor its average score for its importance and uncertainty of its trend, and a list ranking factors according to the most significant combination of importance and uncertainty. These results were the starting point of the thematic discussions held during the Workshop and the summarising charts are included in section 2 of this report (for a full account, please refer to the above-mentioned document).

As we will see in the next paragraph, the main objective of the Workshop was to identify the two scenario variables, which will permit to define four scenarios. The objective of the Delphi second online questionnaire will be to characterise these scenarios by defining the trend of all relevant factors.

The description of the four scenarios will be the input to the OPTIMISM modelling activities. More in detail, quantitative forecasts of the main input variables of the simulation models will be provided in the four scenarios. Then simulations will be run in each of the four scenarios in order to assess the performances of the passenger transport system and the attendant mobility patterns, as well as the impacts on the sustainability criteria (primarily GHG emissions).

1.2 Aims of the Expert Workshop The main aim of the Expert Workshop was the selection of two scenario variables among a list of passenger transport key factors. The selection criterion was to identify those with the most significant combination of importance in terms of impact on passenger mobility and uncertainty of their trend.

However, the Workshop was also organised to give experts the opportunity to exchange their ideas, points of view and experiences with other experts with different personal background, specialisation areas, companies and countries. In fact, the respondents to the first online questionnaire answered independently from one another exclusively on the basis of their own experience. These interactive and lively discussions about the foreseeable trends of critical factors and how these might shape future mobility patterns might result in a review of the ranking of key factors resulting from the first online questionnaire, and in the identification of additional key factors.

Since the modelling horizon is 2030, it is important to focus on factors which have long lasting effects on passenger transport systems. Therefore, another aim of the workshop was to collect experts’ opinions on the impact of megatrends on passenger transport system key characteristics. Megatrends are defined as fundamental, long lasting (more than 10 years), global or international transformation processes with a certain direction, including the economic and the socio-cultural dimension and affecting multiple aspects of life. The results of this activity have been included in D3.2 “List of potential Megatrends influencing transport system and mobility behaviour”. Section 2.3 shows a summary of these results.

1.3 Methodology and organisation of the Workshop The organisation of the Expert Workshop gravitated around its two main objectives:

• give experts the opportunity to exchange their ideas, points of view and experiences with other experts;

• selection of two scenario variables among a list of passenger transport key factors.

It was decided to use the World Café method to encourage interactive and lively discussions between experts, because of its relative simplicity, flexibility and effectiveness.


As for the selection of the two scenario variables, it was decided to organise an electronic voting (e-voting) session at the end of the discussions in order to take into account possible suggestions on additional key factors resulting from the exchange of ideas between experts. The e-voting enables an immediate visualisation of the results of the voting session.

The Expert Workshop agenda is in Annex 1. It includes the core parts of the Workshop, i.e. the World Café sessions and the e-voting session, preceded by a session of introductory presentations. The Workshop was held in Rome the 18th

The following paragraphs show the methodology for selecting experts to be invited to the Workshop, the organisation of the World Café sessions, and the organisation of the e-voting session.

September 2012 at the Auditorium Antonianum – Viale Manzoni, 1 – 00176 Rome – Italy.

1.3.1 Selection of experts

The experts invited to the workshop were in the list of 131 who responded to the first online questionnaire. This was in compliance with the practice of Delphi studies. In fact, the starting point of the World Café conversations would have been the results and the key factors rated by experts in the first online questionnaire. Furthermore, each respondent provided at the end of the questionnaire information on the transport mode(s) in which they were specialised, their educational background, etc.

In order to ensure as much as possible heterogeneous expert backgrounds, the identification of experts in that list was based on the following selection criteria:

• coverage of all transport modes;

• coverage of different educational background (Engineering, Economics, Planning, …);

• coverage of different type of organisation (public and private, Research/University, Industry, Public Authorities, Transport Operators, …);

• coverage of as many countries as possible.

Table 3 – Range of experts’ characteristics according to the selection criteria

Total Number of experts 24 Transport mode Air 3

Intermodal 12 Rail 7 Road 12 Waterborne 2

Educational background Economics 6 Engineering 12 Environmental Sciences 1 Planning/Geography 9 Psychology 1 Sociology 1 System analysis 1

Type of organisation Academic research 6 Consumer organisation 1 Governmental or public authorities 5 Industrial organisation 2 Non-profit research organisation 1 Research consultancies 5 Self funded and self sustainable Research International Association 1 Transport operators 3

Number of covered countries 15 (AU, BE, CH, DE, FR, GR, HR, IT, LV, NL, NO, PT, RS, SI, UK)


The final number of involved experts was 24. Annex 1 shows the list of participants to the Expert Workshop; in that list the experts are highlighted in bold character.

Table 3 shows the invited experts’ characteristics according to the selection criteria1 Figure 4, while shows the geographical distribution of invited experts.

AU BE CH DE FR GR HR IT LV NL NO PT RS SI UK Total

1 2 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 24

Figure 4 - Geographical distribution of experts invited to the Workshop.

1.3.2 World Café sessions

As already said, one of the objective of the workshop was to bring together, with the OPTIMISM Project Team, experts who had participated in the first on-line survey with the aim of facilitating interactive and lively discussions about the foreseeable trends of critical factors and how these might shape future mobility patterns.

To this aim, World Café sessions have been organised. World Café discussions can easily create the best conditions for a lively collaborative dialogue around the topics of interest. Moving from table to table meeting new people actively contributes to encourage participants’ thinking since they continuously confront with other participants’ ideas and perspectives.

1 Some experts have an educational background covering more than one subject, for example economics and engineering, planning and engineering, and so on. This applies also in the case of transport mode, for example some of them were expert on road and rail, intermodal, road and rail, and so on.

2

2

2

3

1

2

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

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1


A World Café session in general involves:

1. The creation of a comfortable environment. It usually consists of small round tables around which experts are arranged. The maximum number of experts is determined by the fact that too much people would impede a smooth conversation and the involvement of all people sitting around the table. In general, the more people feel comfortable the more they think, speak, and listen.

2. Relative brief conversation rounds. Each conversation rounds should be no longer than 20÷30 minutes and the number of rounds should be no greater than 3÷4 in order to prevent expert from losing concentration for the prolonged duration of the session. At the end of each round, each expert moves to a different table.

3. The presence of a table host. The table host welcome the first and next groups of experts and introduce them to the discussion putting them at ease and encouraging everyone to contribute their ideas and perspectives. At the end of each round the table host summarises the main outcomes and introduce to them the next group of experts.

4. The presence of a table record keeper. Experts carry their key ideas to new tables and exchange perspectives, creating the best conditions for new insights into the discussed topic. The table record keeper notes findings and ideas and in each round integrates the new findings and ideas with the ones of previous rounds in order to ensure a sort of “evolving” thoughts/ideas, where the new round discussion builds on the previous round discussions. The record keeper uses a flipcharts where every expert around the table can see findings and ideas and their progressive development.

5. Guiding questions. A number of guiding questions should be prepared in advance and asked during each round. These questions should guide the discussion direction and should be in a limited number in order to leave as much time as possible to the discussion.

6. Presentation of the results. At the end of the rounds, each table host presents the results of the discussions at his/her table in order to share the outcomes with the entire group of experts and the audience.

The World Café discussions in the OPTIMISM Expert Workshop have been arranged in a morning session and an afternoon session.

Each session lasted one and half hour and consisted of three rounds of 25 minutes.

Figure 5 shows the layout of the room where the Workshop took place; in particular shows the position of the tables used for the World Café discussions (the circles numbered 1, 2 and 3). Each of the three tables hosted eight experts besides the table host and a record keeper, who were members of the project consortium. The record keeper noted on a flip-chart the main outcomes of the discussion.


Figure 5 – The World Café layout

The topic discussed at each table in the morning and afternoon sessions are showed in Table 4 and Table 5 respectively, together with the OPTIMISM project partners who took part to the discussions as table host and record keeper.

In all World Café of the morning and afternoon session, except for table 3 “ICT transport applications”, the subject of the discussion was the foreseeable trends of critical factors and how these might shape future mobility patterns with a focus on their importance in terms of impacts on mobility and uncertainty of the trend related to the factor.

The World Café table on “ICT transport applications” was focused on exchanging ideas and views on the potential of ICT transport applications.

For each World Café table the following material was prepared in order to start and guide the conversation:

• Results of the first expert online questionnaire relating to the importance and trend uncertainty of key factors. Four charts in A2 format were prepared. Two of these charts showed the average scores of the importance and trend uncertainty for the specific key factors discussed at the table. The other two charts showed the standard deviation of experts’ ratings from the average score of importance and trend uncertainty. The standard deviation gives an idea of the level of agreement among experts.

• Results of the first expert online questionnaire – candidate factors for being scenario variables. For each table, a list of 8 candidate factors for being scenario variables was prepared highlighting


in bold the ones discussed at the table. These 8 candidate factors were the ones that occupied the first eight positions in the list ranking factors according to the most significant combination of importance and trend uncertainty average scores given by experts in the first online questionnaire. On the basis of the discussions at the table the ranking order might change and further key factors added for the final electronic voting.

• Guiding questions. It was decided to give experts as much as possible time to exchange their ideas and point of views. Therefore, only the following three guiding questions were asked at each table:

o Which are the foreseeable trends in the factors?

o Which are the foreseeable impacts of the factors and their trends on the patterns of passenger mobility?

o Are there other factors, in addition to the 8 from the on-line survey, that you would vote for?

Table 4 – Topics of the Information Café morning session

World Café Morning Session

Topic Host Co-host and record keeper

Table 1 Socio-demographics and spatial structure

Merja Hoppe ( ZHAW) Vicente Carabias ( ZHAW)

Table 2 Political and economical David Morris (CUE) Elena Tavlaki (SIGNOSIS)

Table 3 Energy and environment (including vehicles/fuels)

Michael Hepting (DLR) Martin Redelbach (DLR)

Table 5 – Topics of the Information Café afternoon session

World Café Afternoon Session

Topic Host Co-host and record keeper

Table 1 ICT for society and the economy David Morris (CUE) Anouk van Grinsven (CE Delft)

Table 2 Transport policy and planning Paolo Delle Site (CTL) Elisabete Arsenio (LNEC)

Table 3 ICT transport applications Lars Akkermans (TML) Arno Schroten (CE Delft)

At the end of the morning and afternoon sessions, each table host summarised to the entire audience (experts and project partners) the main outcomes of the discussions and, in particular, pointed out newly identified key factors to be included in the electronic voting.

Figure 6 shows a view of the World Café morning session.


Figure 6 – A view of the World Café morning session.

1.3.3 Electronic voting session

The aim of the final electronic voting session was to select the two scenario variables used to define the four scenarios. These scenarios will be used in the modelling task.

The electronic voting system used in the Workshop consisted of:

• software installed in a laptop;

• remote controls for selecting options;

• two aerials to catch remote controls’ signals and transmitting them to the laptop;

• a screen used to show to the audience the list of “candidate” factors and the corresponding button to push for voting them, as well as the results of the voting session.

The voting procedure was quite simple. The experts had to wait for the opening of the voting session (signalled by the green led on the remote control turning on), and then simply push the two buttons with the numbers assigned to the factors they decided to vote.

When all experts had finished to vote, the software took less than one minutes to make elaborations and show the results on the screen.


2 Results

2.1 World Café sessions In paragraph 1.3.2 we provided a brief description of the World Café method, as well as how the OPTIMISM World Café sessions were arranged. In particular, we mentioned the fact that for each table some material was prepared to start the discussions together with the following common guiding questions:

o Which are the foreseeable trends in the factors?

o Which are the foreseeable impacts of the factors and their trends on the patterns of passenger mobility?

o Are there other factors, in addition to the 8 from the on-line survey, that you would vote for?

The following paragraphs show the input material and the main outcomes for each table of the World Café sessions.

2.1.1 Socio-demographics and spatial structure

2.1.1.1 Inputs for discussion

The input material for this table consisted of:

• Two charts in A2 format showing the average score for the importance and the uncertainty of the trend of each factor relating to the table topic on the basis of the rating given by experts in the first online questionnaire (Figure 7).

• Two charts in A2 format showing the standard deviation of the experts’ rating for the importance and the uncertainty of the trend of each factor relating to the table topic, which give an idea of the level of agreement between experts (Figure 8).

• List of the eight candidates factors according to the ranking in terms of the most significant combination of importance of the key factors and uncertainty of their trend made on the basis of the results of the first online questionnaire (Table 6). None of the key factors relating to this topic belongs to the list of candidate factors.


Figure 7 – Socio-demographics and spatial structure: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors

Figure 8 – Socio-demographics and spatial structure: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors


Table 6 - Socio-demographics and spatial structure: table relating to the eight candidate factors

8 candidate factors

Factor Influential areas2

Energy prices

Energy and Environment Institutional structures (Integration of spatial planning, urban planning transport planning and economic policies) Transport Policy and Planning

Implementation and governments' support of sustainable mobility policies Transport Policy and Planning Implementation of sustainable development principles Energy and Environment

Internalisation of externalities Transport Policy and Planning

The impact that ICT technologies may have on the way of life ICT for Society and Economy

GDP development Economy

Market uptake and diffusion of vehicle technologies Vehicle Technologies

2.1.1.2 Outcomes

The Socio-Demographics and Spatial Structure session took place from 11:00 to 13:00. The session was hosted by Merja Hoppe (ZHAW) and the co-host and rapporteur was Vicente Carabias (ZHAW).

Café session discussion reporting

Urban sprawl might be more uncertain in the future than the results from the survey indicate, because the spatial development of cities is largely dependent on incomes. The affordability of houses will differ by country as the recent economic crisis shows there are income disparities which might increase in the future. Density and growth of urban sprawl may develop into increased urbanisation.

Evaluation of importance and uncertainty of factor Ageing Society is OK, but what about its impacts

Ageing is also related to Changes in Household structures, to Unemployment, and Level of income inequality.

on mobility? These are not clear at all. An actively ageing society with relatively high income may increase mobility. Different mobility needs for elderly people may result in an adaptation process of the transport system.

High migration flows and unemployment may impact the demand of mobility (also there is an uncertainty concerning ageing if immigration is high).

Effects of employment decrease due to economic crisis may be:

• Number of cars in the city decreasing;

• Less traffic in longer distances;

• Public transport use decreasing if it is not cheap enough.

Might have influences on tourism as well (“Europe is the museum of the world!”)

2 Influential areas were the 10 topics into which key factors were grouped for convenience in the first Delphi online questionnaire


Flexibilisation of labour (e.g. increased home office and teleconferences) can be a chance for people on country-side, but also an intensive to live further away than where they work, which may cause more mobility. However, commuters may be able to use time in long-distance trains for work. This development could be enforced through ICT as “working on the trip” could turn commuting into working-time.

Although there is a relationship between GDP development and Level of income inequality, the latter might have a higher uncertainty than predicted. The affordability of mobility, car-ownership and the amount of leisure trips were mentioned as affected variables. Therefore, Level of income inequality is suggested as additional candidate factor to be voted for. “Financing of transport system” is not clear at all. In the future, clusters of rich and poor people might result. Furthermore, mobility patterns might be influenced by this factor resulting in changing tourism patterns.

Attitudes are uncertain impact factors; eg. attitudes towards use of high technology. The speed of change of technology use makes it difficult to understand the impact on behaviour. Increasing speed could cause different needs of social groups in an ageing society: employees cause a demand for high speed commuting while older people may prefer less speed.

Attitudes towards time and speed: Work in public transport could change the perception of travel-time (as working time). Reliability of public transport is an important factor influencing the attitudes towards modes. The whole organisation of life and work may be affected in dependence on changing attitudes and cause different mobility behaviour and demand.

Organisation of social networks and way of life has definitively an impact on mobility patterns. But also the demand for tourism may influence the future. The preferences for trips may change depending on development of income and eventually more free time. This may affect activities and preferences for destinations.

2.1.2 Politics and economy



• two charts in A2 format showing the average score for the importance and the uncertainty of the trend of each factor relating to the table topic on the basis of the rating given by experts in the first online questionnaire (Figure 9);

• two charts in A2 format showing the standard deviation of the experts’ rating for the importance and the uncertainty of the trend of each factor relating to the table topic, which give an idea of the level of agreement between experts (Figure 8);

• list of the eight candidates factors according to the ranking in terms of the most significant combination of importance of the key factors and uncertainty of their trend made on the basis of the results of the first online questionnaire (Table 7). One key factor relating to this topic belongs to the list of candidate factors.


Figure 9 – Politics and economy: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors

Figure 10 – Politics and economy: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors


Table 7 - Politics and economy: table relating to the eight candidate factors

8 candidate factors

Factor Influential areas

Energy prices Energy and Environment Institutional structures (Integration of spatial planning, urban planning transport planning and economic policies) Transport Policy and Planning






2.1.2.2 Outcomes

The Politics and Economy session took place from 11:00 to 13:00. The session was hosted by David Morris (CUE) and the co-host and rapporteur was Elena Tavlaki (SIGNOSIS).

Introduction

This section presents the results of the table discussions on political and economic trends as they affect future mobility patterns and demand. The following trends, identified in previous OPTIMISM research, were discussed:

• GDP development;

• The geographical distribution of activities and trade;

• Share of the service sector;

• Share of e-commerce;

• EU enlargement;

• Citizen participation in policy;

• Cohesion and structural policy;

• Multipolarisation;

• Worldwide distribution of income;

• Shortage of resources and energy and the risk of conflict.

Within this list particular attention was given to the ex ante top-rated factor, GDP development.


GDP development

Participants pointed out a distinction between GDP development and GDP growth. The former, in broad terms, is concerned with the qualitative impacts of GDP whilst the latter focuses on conventional


measures of the size of GDP. As GDP growth slows in many developed countries and we enter a period when the expectation is that historical (post 1945) GDP growth rates will not be achieved, then the qualitative aspects of how GDP is allocated and spent will become more important. However, the absence of any agreed measurement criteria for GDP development makes discussion of its potential effects difficult.

However, the pattern is not the same across all EU countries. As GDP grows to a high level, its growth is decoupled from decisions on expenditures on personal mobility. GDP growth is not such an important factor, especially for Western Europe. Especially, car ownership is decoupled from GDP; that is, as GDP grows beyond a certain level the rate of car ownership per household does not grow so rapidly. This is supported by data from Western European countries. In less developed countries the more familiar historical pattern of GDP growth being accompanied by rapid increases in car ownership still obtains.

There is some evidence that demand for air travel may follow the same pattern.

The experts therefore recommended that a distinction be drawn between GDP growth and GDP development since they are conceptually distinct and, more importantly, the effects of GDP growth are markedly different across countries depending on the starting level of GDP per capita.

Cohesion policies affect GDP development, particularly in some countries, via the funding of infrastructure and the free movement of people. Thus cohesion policy was thought to be more important than indicated by the Delphi results.

The three discussion groups confirmed that GDP changes were the most important political and economic factor on the list and that it should retain its place in the “top 8” list.

Citizen participation in policy making

An important factor is the citizens and their active participation in delivering sustainable scenarios for the future. Nevertheless, this factor is of high uncertainty, due to the fact that politicians do not always act supportively. In particular, in some countries, there is little evidence that citizens’ view and ideas, even if canvassed, are acted upon or influence policy-making. Inter alia, this lack of responsiveness on the part of politicians could cause rebound effects whereby citizens stopped responding to calls to participate or even protested against the lack of action. The three panels concluded that this factor was of potentially greater importance than suggested in the Delphi first round results and of greater uncertainty.

However, the groups did not consider this factor significant enough to enter the “top 8” list.

Shortage of resources and the risk of conflict

The groups were surprised at the low level of uncertainty ascribed to this factor. In discussion it was suggested that the wording of the question in the Delphi survey was probably the cause. The survey asked respondents to rate the uncertainty of “the risk of conflict”. Discussants pointed out that “the risk of conflict” was, of itself, almost certain. However, if asked whether conflicts would have a significant effect on energy supplies and/or mobility patterns then the outcome was much more uncertain. There was also some indication that experts thought the shortage of resources, however caused, was a potentially more important factor than suggested by the survey results.

Overall, the groups did not consider that this factor should be included in the “top 8” list.

Other factors

• An important factor that is missing and should be considered is the advent of ICT systems that match supply and demand, a factor that will lead to dramatic change.


• Freight transport (in terms of growth and modality) should be considered as economic factor. This factor affects passenger mobility in that freight and passenger transport compete for space on the same scarce infrastructure.

• Infrastructure expenditure, due to lack of capacity, should be considered as an important factor.

2.1.3 Energy and environment (including fuels)





• list of the eight candidates factors according to the ranking in terms of the most significant combination of importance of the key factors and uncertainty of their trend made on the basis of the results of the first online questionnaire (Table 8). Three key factors relating to this topic belong to the list of candidate factors.

Figure 11 – Energy and environment: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors


Figure 12 – Energy and environment: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors

Table 8 - Energy and environment: table relating to the eight candidate factors

8 candidate factors









2.1.3.2 Outcomes

The Energy and Environment session took place from 11:00 to 13:00. The session was hosted by Michael Hepting (DLR) and the co-host and rapporteur was Martin Redelbach (DLR).


The most important outcomes of the intensive discussion are the following trends and impacts.

Trends of the identified influence factors

• The demand of the global energy consumption will rise.

• The availability of fossil fuels will decrease. This will conclude in higher energy prices.

• The energy mix will also change (substitution of fossil fuels). Alternative energies will become more important.

• The political influence on energy prices will become more important.

• More regulations of energy efficiency.

• Further technological development to aim for higher efficiency.

• Shift from variable costs (e.g. fuels) to fixed costs (e.g. solar cells, battery storage) for energy consumers.

• Limited possibilities to build new or additional (transport) infrastructure.

• Increasing awareness for environment by customers.

Impacts of the identified influence factors on transport development

• Increasing costs in transport in general as impact of higher energy prices;

• Increasing importance of electricity in transport (e-mobility) ;

• Low impact of energy prices on intra-urban or short-distance travel;

• But higher impact of higher energy prices on long-distance travel (less travel assumed) ;

• Higher willingness to purchase vehicles with electric or other alternative drive-train;

• Push for electric driven vehicles in general;

• Rebound effect: taxation of electric driving (to compensate for the decrease in fuel tax) ;

• Technical aspects of electrical energy supply like grid utilisation will become more critical;

• Perhaps more teleworking;

• Energy efficiency regulation have a strong impact on the vehicle fleet and the product strategy of the manufactures.

Additional influence factors (in relation to the mentioned factors in the questionnaire)

• Uncertainty of climate change;

• Innovations and technological breakthroughs (H2 production, battery storage etc.) ;

• Limited possibilities to extend infrastructure (land use) ;

• Consideration of the life cycle perspective.

The underlined additional influence factors (Climate change, innovation and technology) were chosen for the voting at the end of the workshop.


Comments

In the discussion one question came up: how to define “sustainable principles”. All participants recognised the importance of sustainability in the transport sector. But a common understanding of sustainability and how to reach it is needed. It is planned to discuss this further in the project.

2.1.4 ICT for society and the economy





• list of the eight candidates factors according to the ranking in terms of the most significant combination of importance of the key factors and uncertainty of their trend made on the basis of the results of the first online questionnaire (Table 9). One key factor relating to this topic belongs to the list of candidate factors.

Figure 13 – ICT for society and economy: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors


Figure 14 – ICT for society and economy: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors

Table 9 - ICT for society and economy: table relating to the eight candidate factors

8 candidate factors









2.1.4.2 Outcomes

The ICT for Society and the Economy session took place from 14:00 to 16:00. The session was hosted by David Morris (CUE) and the co-host and rapporteur was Anouk Van Grinsven (CE DELFT).

Introduction

This section presents the results of the table discussion on potential ICT developments as they might affect social change in general. Note that the more specific issue of how ICT might directly affect transport applications was discussed at a separate table. The following trends, identified in previous OPTIMISM research, were discussed:

• ICT R&D expenditures;

• ICT technological development and innovation;

• ICT impacts on the way of life;

• ICT market uptake and diffusion.

Within this list particular attention was given to the ex ante top-rated factor, ICT impacts on the way of life.


Initial comments

The groups argued that the four factors were not separable in the way in which might be suggested by the Delphi questionnaire. Nor were they ordered in a helpful way. The factors are all part of the process of taking initial research activities through to the satisfying of user needs. Logically, therefore, the ICT impacts on the way of life should come at the end of the list. However, all stages (factors) are necessary and discussions of relative importance should take account of this fact. In addition, groups stressed that it is often the linkages between the factors that is important rather than the factors themselves. Thus, for example, technological development does not always result in market uptake and policy may need to focus on the process of commercialisation as much as those of innovation and diffusion. The time between development and implementation does depend on the type of ICT option. There is no general rule. Institutional structures play a major role in ensuring that the linkages in the chain are strong enough. The factors R&D and development and innovation do not only depend only on spending money in these areas, but are also strongly related to the framework conditions and management related to these areas.

Market uptake also depends on market system/actors, for example big enterprises and small enterprises. When we look at smart-phone applications it seems that those are being brought onto the market by more and more small enterprises. There is a very low risk that consumers prevent market uptake, but costs and demographic factors can be seen more of a risk.

Groups agreed that the direction of impacts is unclear, while the impacts themselves are not.

ICT impacts on the way of life

Overall the experts felt that this factor was marginally more important than suggested by the initial results of the Delphi survey. On the other hand there was disagreement about the level of uncertainty. One group suggested it was more uncertain, another less uncertain and the third agreed with the initial results. Overall the level of uncertainty was adjudged to be reasonable. Groups suggested that what the impacts might look like is uncertain.

It is too early to say what the likely impacts of ICT on travel demand will be; they will probably be influenced by generation differences. The question is to what extent virtual mobility will be a


replacement of real-life mobility. This is still uncertain and rebound effects should also be considered. Virtual mobility can generate more traffic, but not necessarily in every case.

Online shopping and e-working might have an impact on (commuting) trips, but this does not necessarily result in beneficial impacts. There are limits to flexibilisation of work and e-working can also generate more traffic. The use of video meetings is mentioned and the fact that e-commerce results in more freight traffic to homes to deliver goods. E-learning might open possibilities for students (for example to study at Harvard via internet).

Working at home for example might also result in accepting a job further away from home. Because people can stay more at home it might result in other requirements on neighbourhoods, because people are more in their neighbourhood (or virtual neighbourhoods on the internet). The question is where this will stop? Will it stop and to what extent will this influence daily life and face-to-face contact?

However, the groups suggested that this factor should not be retained in the “top 8” list. The major reason for this is that the more precise impacts on mobility were likely to be more significant and than the more generic issues.

Other issues

It can be questioned as to what extent the use of ICT is something for the elite and to what extent it is related to income levels and can result in social exclusion. Income also influences modal split directly.

With respect to personalisation of information, privacy issues seem to be a bigger concern than technology. The privacy issues can result in the disappearance of ICT options, which people would not choose to use due to concerns on their privacy. However, there are already a lot of platforms where people do not seem to care about privacy issues (like Facebook). Creating the right framework conditions to deal with all aspects like privacy issues and other issues will take time, but even without these framework conditions there will be impacts. The framework conditions might influence the impacts.

It should be taken into account that there are differences between public transport and private transport with respect to opportunities.

Safety issues should also be taken into account, because ICT makes that we depend more on technology in daily life.

Differences between countries should be considered and how these can be explained.

It should also be taken into account that it is also about the way we travel and not only about more or less travel.

2.1.5 Transport policy and planning






• list of the eight candidates factors according to the ranking in terms of the most significant combination of importance of the key factors and uncertainty of their trend made on the basis of the results of the first online questionnaire (Table 10). Three key factors relating to this topic belong to the list of candidate factors.

Figure 15 – Transport policy and planning: average scores for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors.


Figure 16 – Transport policy and planning: standard deviation of experts’ ratings for the importance and uncertainty of trends of key factors

Table 10 - Transport policy and planning: table relating to the eight candidate factors

8 candidate factors









2.1.5.2 Outcomes

The Transport Policy and Planning (TPP) session took place from 14:00 to 16:00. The session was hosted by Paolo Delle Site (CTL) and the co-host and rapporteur was Elisabete Arsenio (LNEC).

Introduction

During the recording, the rapporteur used three different coloured pens (one colour for each round table panel views) such that commons opinions/statements by experts could be underlined in a A1 sheet once, twice or triple as applicable. At final, the group consensus could also be easily perceived by looking at the most underlined statements (i.e. a consensus around a TPP factor would have both green/blue/red colours). As such, the session final objective could be retrieved by reaching a consensus on the most important TPP factors and with most uncertain trends. At the end of the three rounds, the conclusions of the TPP session were presented to all experts.


The results of the on-line survey, which have been used as starting point for the discussions, had been indicative that the following 3 factors are expected as the most important, in terms of impacts on mobility patterns, and with most uncertain trend:

• institutional structures (integration of spatial planning, transport planning and economic policies);

• implementation and government support to sustainable mobility principles;

• internalisation of externalities.

The discussions in the three rounds were focused on the importance and uncertainty of these three factors. Additionally, the participants discussed the opportunity to include other factors to the list of the most important and uncertain factors.

Institutional structures

• In some countries a lack of vertical coordination in planning can be observed, with plans produced by different government levels (e.g. municipal and regional) showing conflicts; this is not the case in other countries were coordination is well in place.

• There is a policy gap through various policy and management structures, e.g. construction versus management.

• Plans are sometimes poorly enforced.

• There can be a lack of awareness of the interaction between land use and transport which is reflected in non-coordinated transport and land use planning, an issue mentioned in the European Commission 2011 White Paper on transport policy. However, individuals and decision makers are now more aware of the need for integration of transport and land use planning.

• In some occasions governments do not fulfil their planning function which is delegated to operators in the market, the so-called privatisation of planning (e.g. planning of the railway network). This also is subject to variability depending on countries.

• The designation of “institutional structures” can be replaced with other such as “market-based planning”. Another, probably more appropriate designation, is “governance”.

• A well coordinated and integrated planning and policy making activity is desirable for the aims of sustainability. Also, efficient governance is desirable.


• Various transport modes are coordinated by different agencies so there’s the need to integrate different agencies responsible for transport mobility (an integrated mobility agency was suggested).

• Institutional structures for policy integration are dependent on specific financial structures and implementing those may be more uncertain.

• The degree of coordination or deregulation of markets is subject to high uncertainty in the future.

• The TPP factor “Institutional structures” is, overall, not a key one to retain, although it needs to be remarked that integrated and coordinated planning and policy making is important for the implementation of the comodality principle.

Implementation and government support to sustainable mobility principles

• Regarding the importance of the TPP factor “Implementation and governments’ support of sustainable mobility policies”, it was considered as a key factor by all.

• This factor can replace the former factor “institutional factor” due to the fact that implementation and governments’ support to sustainable mobility principles can also be related to institutional structures.

• The other factor “internalisation of externalities” can be included in the factor “Implementation and governments’ support of sustainable mobility policies” because it is part of a sustainable mobility package. However, it is preferable to maintain a distinction between the principle, i.e. supporting sustainable mobility principles, and the various tools which can be used to implement the principle, such as internalisation of externalities.

• For the implementation of the sustainable mobility principle, it is of particular importance to consider measures that are able to affect users’ behaviour.

Internalisation of externalities

• “Internalisation of externalities” is considered unanimously as an important factor and very uncertain, among the others because mobility has a price.

• Efficient pricing for road transport is advocated by the European Commission White Paper on transport policy, whereby users pay a price based on vehicle-kilometres travelled, time of travel and congestion conditions. Such road pricing is more efficient than fuel duties. New technologies (ICT) will play a key role in the implementation of efficient pricing.

• The factor can be complemented by an additional term as “prices and charges”. The two factors are inter-related. As an example, increased prices for private road transport, in compliance with the internalisation of externalities principle, may induce public transport operators to increase fares if these are not subject to regulation.

• It is highly debatable whether implementation of the internalisation of externalities principle should result in higher prices for private road transport because this is already heavily taxed (the example of fuel duties in UK is mentioned).

• The methodologies for valuing the external effects are complex issues: which externalities can/will be subject to internalisation policies?

• It is difficult to value some external effects such as biodiversity.

• There is a need to consider a life-cycle analysis (LCA) of those effects as well, as an example the emissions of CO2 would need to be estimated from well to wheel, not just from tank to wheel.


• The internalisation of externalities is related to the future integration of markets and this could be subject to open competition of markets.

• Given the possible, and desired, shift of the vehicle fleet from conventionally fuelled-vehicles to electric vehicles, re-considering the taxation system of cars is a necessity. This is because governments will suffer a decrease in revenues from lower fuel duties; this circumstance can be regarded as an opportunity for implementing efficient road pricing.

• Overall, the internalisation of externalities is considered as a key factor: it is important for transport efficiency and its trend is subject to very high uncertainty. Also, this TPP factor is considered a difficult/complex issue to deal with in the future.

Other factors

• New mobility concepts, such as car sharing, could be a key factor only if future concepts can be very innovative and integrated, meaning that they would need to provide answers to the full mobility chain of each user and make radical changes in behaviour.

• New mobility concepts are, mostly, niche to date.

• Governments have an important role to play because they can provide indirect support to these concepts (e.g. prioritisation to these vehicles in traffic regulation, subsidies).

• Overall, it is considered that new mobility concepts should not be added to the TPP list of most important and uncertain factors.

Conclusions of the café sessions/round tables

A consensus was reached amongst the 25 experts being the “Implementation and governments’ support of sustainable mobility policies” and the “internalisation of externalities” the two most important TPP factors for shaping future mobility patterns and the ones that were considered to be associated with most uncertain trends.

It is important to note that it was observed a strong agreement of opinions by those selected experts (25) with those from the 1st phase of the Delphi survey (sample size: 131). As such, the 2nd phase of the Delphi approach reinforced both the validity of our research tool (Delphi approach) and the results obtained regarding the most important TPP factors to retain for further analysis.

2.1.6 ICT transport applications


The input material for this table consisted of the list of the eight candidates factors according to the ranking in terms of the most significant combination of importance of the key factors and uncertainty of their trend made on the basis of the results of the first online questionnaire (Table 11). None of the key factors relating to this topic belongs to the list of candidate factors.

The factors discussed at this table were not included in the first expert online questionnaire, and, therefore, no charts were prepared for this table. The factors discussed were:

• Travel information services

o Pre-trip to en-route info service;

o Static data to real-time dynamic info;

o Single mode to multi-mode info;

o General to customized info.


• Mobility services

o Ownership to use of transport mode;

o Single mode to multi-modal service.

• Traffic management

o Stand alone to cooperative systems.

• In-vehicle technology

o Driver controlled to autonomous vehicles;

o Cooperative vehicles & systems.

The conversation at this table was focused on exchanging ideas and views on the potential of ICT transport applications and possible barriers.

Table 11 - ICT transport applications: table relating to the eight candidate factors

8 candidate factors








2.1.6.2 Outcomes

The ICT Transport Applications session took place from 14:00 to 16:00. The session was hosted by Lars Akkermans (TML) and the co-host and rapporteur was Arno Schroten (CE DELFT).

Introduction

In this section we present the results of the discussion on ICT applications for transport (e.g. travel information, traffic management systems, vehicle control and safety systems, etc.). The following issues were discussed:

• impacts of ICT applications on travel patterns;

• challenges/barriers for ICT applications;

• potentially effective (future) ICT applications.


Impacts of ICT applications on travel patterns

ICT application may have several impacts on travel patterns:


• Transport demand; according to the experts most of the ICT applications will not have significant impacts on transport demand. Exceptions may be car-sharing and carpooling schemes, which may result in lower car ownership and hence reduced transport demand.

• Modal choice; ICT applications like travel information and smart cards may increase the comfort and convenience of public transport use and hence may stimulate a modal shift from the car to public transport. This impact will probably be larger for non-regular trips than for regular trips. The latter ones are often habitual and hence no deliberate choice on which mode to use is made; therefore, these kinds of trips are less affected by external factors, including additional travel information, etc.

• Road safety; driving assistance systems (e.g. anti collision systems) may improve road safety. Future development with respect to vehicle-to-vehicle communication, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication and (completely) autonomous vehicles may enlarge these impacts.

• Disruptions; ICT options may be very useful in case of disruptions (accidents, delays of public transport) by providing alternative routings/travel options. In this way travel times could be reduced and hence travel convenience increases.

For all impacts it is expected that they will be larger for younger age groups, because they are more convenient in using these kinds of applications.

Barriers/challenges for ICT applications

According to the experts there are several barriers/challenges with respect to the implementation of ICT transport applications that supports co-modality:

• Travel data ownership; many of the ICT applications are providing or using travel information. These data is mostly owned by transport operators or infrastructure operators, but these are not the (only) agents that will provide ICT applications to travellers. Therefore, open data should be guaranteed (decouple information from transport and infrastructure operators), preferably for free.

• Reliability/security of travel data; the travel data provided should be reliable and security of data should be guaranteed to overcome privacy issues.

• Standardisation; a certain degree of standardisation of travel data and other types of ICT based schemes is necessary to create a level playing field for ICT applications and hence the possibility to realise economies of scope. It was agreed that standardisation is mainly the responsibility of companies (since the most efficient applications could be better ‘chosen’ by the market than by the government), but that the government should set some guidelines to prevent the risk of a wide range of different, incompatible technologies/applications. Standardisation should preferably be organised at a European level.

• Usability; ICT applications should be understandable for all types of travellers (e.g. elderly) and should preferably be personalised as much as possible. For example, custom made travel information has a much higher value than general travel information.

• Acceptability; there should be sufficient public support for the ICT applications (e.g. privacy issues). It is expected that this support will grow over time, as was for example the case with the obligation to wear seatbelts.

• Implicit preferences for the car; a significant part of the travellers do prefer the car over public transport, even if public transport is more attractive in terms of costs and travel time. Travellers’ positive attitude with respect to passenger cars is closely related to more psychological factors like feelings of freedom. It is doubted whether ICT applications could significantly change these attitudes of travellers.


• Technology is evolving too fast; sometimes, private companies and administrations do not have time to respond to the latest technologies because even newer technologies are already being developed and marketed. This leads to either a startling effect for the administrations (not possible to commit to the latest standard) or a spreading of effort (too many separated efforts).

Potential effective ICT applications

Finally, the experts discussed future developments with respect to ICT transport applications, mainly focussed on ICT applications that could potentially be effective in supporting co-modality:

• Carpooling & car-sharing schemes (supported by social media and online platforms);

• Customised services (e.g. tailored information) will become more and more important in the future and will (partly) replace more general services.

• Autonomous vehicles; the potential impacts of this option is large, but the time frame is still very uncertain. The development of autonomous vehicles will probably be a step-by-step process and actually has already been started by different types of driving assistance systems (e.g. parking assistance).

• Mobility pricing; road user charging (based on an ICT based charging system) is seen as an effective way to support co-modality.

• Sensors; the use of sensors (in vehicles and/or infrastructure) could provide valuable real-time information and hence could be very useful as input for new types of travel services.

• Crowd sourcing and social media will become more important with respect to the provision of travel information.

• Interrelationships with other services will increase, e.g. entertainment.

2.2 Electronic voting The final result of the first online questionnaire was the list of the eight candidate factors for being scenario variables. These factors showed the most significant combinations of importance in terms of impact on passenger transport systems and mobility, and uncertainty of the trend related to each of these factors.

These factors are:

• Energy prices;

• Institutional structures (Integration of spatial planning, urban planning transport planning and economic policies);

• Implementation and governments' support of sustainable mobility policies;

• Implementation of sustainable development principles;

• Internalisation of externalities;

• The impact that ICT technologies may have on the way of life;

• GDP development;

• Market uptake and diffusion of vehicle technologies.


It was then decided to combine in a single factor “Implementation and governments' support of sustainable mobility policies” belonging to transport policy and planning influential area3

Finally, the World Café conversations resulted in the identification of the following three additional candidate factors for being scenario variables:

and “Implementation of sustainable development principles” belonging to energy and environment influential area. In fact, these two factors appear to be the two sides of the same coin. The resulting factor was named “Support of sustainable mobility policies”.

• Level of income inequality;

• Energy related vehicle technology development;

• Autonomous vehicles.

The initial list, resulting from the first online questionnaire outcomes, was modified and integrated with the new entries.

The final list (Figure 17) was shown to the experts at the beginning of the final voting session. Figure 17 also shows the buttons each expert had to press on the remote control to vote for his preferences.

Figure 17 – Final list of candidate factors for the final voting

Figure 18 shows the result of the electronic voting.

The two scenario variables with the highest importance and uncertainty, which was the expected final output of the Expert Workshop, are:

• Support of sustainable mobility policies;

• Energy prices.

3 Influential areas were the 10 topics into which key factors were grouped for convenience in the first Delphi online questionnaire: 1. Demographics and social developments; 2. Spatial structure; 3. Attitudes; 4. Economy; 5. Institutional and Political Factors; 6. Globalisation; 7. Energy and Environment; 8. ICT for Society and Economy; 9. Vehicle Technologies (alternative fuels and energy vectors, more efficient power trains); 10. Transport Policy and Planning.


Figure 18 – Results of the electronic voting

2.3 Impacts of Megatrends on passenger transport systems and mobility

2.3.1 Impact Analysis

Since the modelling horizon is 2030 and 2050, it is important to focus, in the scenario building process, on factors which have long lasting effects on passenger transport systems. Therefore, Megatrends have been used as they are continuing, long term flows influencing multiple aspects like economy, society and policy – shaping the determining factors of the transport system. To get an idea how this Megatrends will influence the transport system an impact analysis has been done. Experts were asked to link Megatrends with key factors (related to them) and to estimate the impact. These links are important for determining “priority” factors in the scenario building process. Table 12 shows the results of the impact analysis based on the results of the expert workshop. The participants were asked to rate the impact of the respective Megatrend on the key factors by 1 for low, 2 for medium and 3 for high impact. The table shows the results of summing those ratings.

For time constraints experts were asked to rate only a selection of the key factors identified in OPTIMISM D3.1 “Research scheme for transport system and mobility behaviour”. This selection mainly includes transport system key characteristics, but policy and planning factors, and ICT transport applications have been included.


Table 12 – Links between Megatrends and selected key factors

Exte

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Market structures

Regulation/deregulation of transport marketsDefinition of aims in strategic transport planning

Taxes (in general)

Pricing and charges

Internalization of externalities

Priorities in infrastructure investment policy

Subsidies and incentives

Traffic law

Institutional structures

Integrated (urban) mobility plans

Analysis and implementation of transport measures

Infrastructure planning

Privatisation of planning and PPP

Regional differences in economies

Peripheral regions and accessibility

Driving license

Vehicle ownership

Technology development and innovation diffusion

ITS (relevant to inter- and co-modality)

10-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60Total of ratings in pointsLegend

ICT for transport

applications

Rating of Impact Megatrends

Competition

Transport policy and planning

Cohesion

Passenger characteristics

1 = low

2 = medium

3 = high


2.3.2 Importance of Megatrends

The impact analysis gives insight into how important experts consider the impact of the identified Megatrends. The list of Megatrends ranked by the summarized experts’ estimations is the following:

1. Urbanisation;

2. Shortage of Resources;

3. Globalisation 2.0;

4. Climate Change and Environmental Ethics;

5. Technology Change;

6. Crisis of Mobility and European Policy Reaction;

Exte

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Transport Urban public transport

Individual public transport services

Railway and coach services

Freight logistics

Intermodality and co-modality services

Air transport services

Seaways and inland waterways services

Mobility needs, daily activities and leisure

Mobility needs of disable and ageing population

Type of vehicle purchase decision

Door-to-door travel time

Transport behaviour

Urban streets and public transport infrastructures

Roads infrastructure

Railways infrastructure

Seaways and inland waterways infrastructure

Airports infrastructure

Global trends in mobility patterns and in impacts on sustainability criteria

51-60Legend Total of ratings in points

10-20 21-30 31-40 41-50

Rating of Impact Megatrends

1 = low

2 = medium

3 = high


7. World Population Growth;

8. Demographic and Social Change Europe;

9. European Market Deregulation;

10. Increase of Inter- / Intra-national Social Disparities;

11. Knowledge Society and -Economy Europe.

This list shows that recent Megatrends, such as Urbanisation and Climate Change, as well as prospective ones, e.g. Shortage of Resources, Globalisation 2.0 and Technology Change, are expected to have great impact.

Megatrends describing social change, such as Knowledge Society, Social Change and Disparities are not expected to have great impact on the key factors of the transport system. Partially this contradicts results elaborated in the same expert-workshop, where the important role of income development and disparities has been stressed.

2.3.3 Vulnerability of Key Factors

Which key factors will be mainly affected by the Megatrends? Table 13 shows the key factors ranked by their vulnerability to Megatrends – based on the experts rating. All parts of the transport system, “urban” and “individual public transport” as well as “air transport”, seem to be vulnerable to the developments described by the main important Megatrends. This means Urbanisation, Shortage of Resources or Globalisation 2.0 are supposed to influence those sectors. A large impact on the transport system may also occur through effects on “regional differences in economies”, which has been ranked highest.

The impact of the megatrends will also affect policy reaction in different fields, such as “definition of aims in strategic transport planning”, “priorities in infrastructure investment policies” and “infrastructure planning”. Also “technology development and innovation diffusion” and “transport behaviour” are supposed to be highly affected by Megatrends.


Table 13 – Key factors ranked by rating concerning impact from Megatrends (key factors marked in grey are around the average of rating)

External Key Factors Rated by deviation from average rating of all factorsCohesion Regional differences in economiesCompetition Market structures Transport Urban public transportTransport Individual public transport servicesTransport Air transport servicesTransport policy and planning Definition of aims in strategic transport planningTransport policy and planning Priorities in infrastructure investment policyTransport policy and planning Infrastructure planningICT for transport applications Technology development and innovation diffusionTransport Transport behaviour Transport Airports infrastructureTransport Intermodality and co-modality services Transport policy and planning Pricing and chargesCohesion Peripheral regions and accessibilityTransport Railw ay and coach services ICT for transport applications ITS (relevant to inter- and co-modality) Transport policy and planning Integrated (urban) mobility plans Transport Freight logisticsTransport Mobility needs, daily activities and leisureTransport Type of vehicle purchase decision Transport policy and planning Internalization of externalities Transport Railw ays infrastructureTransport policy and planning Analysis and implementation of transport measures Passenger characteristics Vehicle ow nershipTransport Roads infrastructureCompetition Regulation/deregulation of transport marketsTransport policy and planning Taxes (in general)Transport Urban streets and public transport infrastructuresTransport Seaw ays and inland w aterw ays servicesTransport policy and planning Subsidies and incentives Transport Mobility needs of disable and ageing populationTransport Door-to-door travel timeTransport Seaw ays and inland w aterw ays infrastructureTransport policy and planning Institutional structuresTransport policy and planning Privatisation of planning and PPPTransport policy and planning Traff ic lawPassenger characteristics Driving licenseTransport Global trends in mobility patterns and in impacts on sustainability criteria


Annex 1 OPTIMISM Workshop Agenda


Annex 2 List of participants This annex shows the list of participants to the OPTIMISM Expert Workshop held in Rome on 18 September 2012. The experts are highlighted in bold character.

Surname Name Organisation e-mail address

1 Adamescu Ioana Olga DG Research and Innovation – European Commission

[email protected]

2 Ahern Aoife University College Dublin [email protected]

3 Akkermans Lars Transport & Mobility Leuven NV [email protected]

4 Anoyrkati Eleni Coventry University [email protected]

5 Arsenio Elisabete Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil [email protected]

6 Barbars Janis Latvian State Roads [email protected]

7 Berge Guro NPRA [email protected]

8 Bolles André OFFIS - Institute for Computer Science [email protected]

9 Carabias Vicente ZHAW - Zurcher Hochschule fuer Angewandte [email protected]

10 Carreno Michael Transport Research Institute [email protected]

11 Cerne Fedor Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning

[email protected]

12 Delle Site Paolo CTL - University of Rome "La Sapienza" [email protected]

13 Diana Marco Politecnico di Torino [email protected]

14 Fuellemann Christoph Swiss International Air Lines [email protected]

15 Hepting Michael DLR - Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft und Raumfahrt

[email protected]

16 Hoppe Merja ZHAW - Zurcher Hochschule fuer Angewandte [email protected]

17 Jaździk-Osmólska Agata IBDiM - Road and Bridge Research Institute [email protected]

18 Knoflacher Markus AIT [email protected]

19 Kompil Mert JRC- Joint Research Centre - European Commission

[email protected]

20 Kuhnimhof Tobias BMW [email protected]

21 Lomba Cipriano EFACEC [email protected]

22 Lowyck Bart Flanders Institute for Mobility [email protected]

23 Maerivoet Sven Transport & Mobility Leuven NV [email protected]

24 Maras Vladislav University of Belgrade [email protected]

25 Mazzone Francesco ACI [email protected]

26 Misanovic Slobodan GSP ''Beograd'' [email protected]

27 Morris David Coventry University [email protected]

28 Nijland Hans Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

[email protected]

29 Ochsenbein Gregor PostBus Switzerland Ltd [email protected]

30 Papadopoulos Michael European Aeronautics Science Network - Technology Innovation Services

[email protected]

31 Papagiannakis Apostolos University of Thessaloniki [email protected]

32 Papatheodorou Andreas University of the Aegean [email protected]

33 Peric Ana University of Rijeka [email protected]

34 Potters Paul Connekt [email protected]

35 Redelbach Martin DLR - Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft und Raumfahrt

[email protected]

36 Salucci Marco Valerio CTL - University of Rome "La Sapienza" [email protected]


Surname Name Organisation e-mail address

37 Schroten Arno CE - Onderzoek, Advies Enconsultancy voor Duurzaamheid

[email protected]

38 Schulz Angelika DLR - Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft und Raumfahrt

[email protected]

39 Shorthouse Steve Coventry University [email protected] 40 Skinner Ian TEPR [email protected]

41 Tavlaki Elena Signosis Sprl [email protected]

42 van Grinsven Anouk CE - Onderzoek, Advies Enconsultancy voor Duurzaamheid

[email protected]

43 Vannacci Lorenzo JRC-IPTS [email protected]

44 Wehmeier Thomas Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affaires and Spatial Development

[email protected]

45 Winder Andrew Egis France [email protected]

46 Wright David Coventry University DWright@cad. coventry.ac.uk

47 Zhang Qing CTL - University of Rome "La Sapienza" [email protected]

Documents

Optimising Passenger Transport Information to …...The Expert Workshop is the second step of the OPTIMISM Delphi study. Section 1 of this report illustrates the aims of the Workshop