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Opportunities in the MEMS Market
December 2012
About Semico Research
Semiconductor consulting and research company offering:
• Syndicated Reports
• MAP Model Tool- End Market Database & Reports
• Research Topic Portfolios
– Semiconductor IP and Design Starts
– ASICs, SoCs
– MEMS
– Semiconductor Manufacturing
– Custom
• IPI Report – Monthly report series accurately predicts semiconductor
revenue inflection points four quarters in advance.
• Custom Research and Consulting
More information contact:
Rick Vogelei 602-997-0337 / [email protected]
2
MEMS Market
MEMS Revenues Grows 23.8%
CAGR 2011-15 MEMS Revenues by Application
Source: Semico Research Corp.
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
Displays
Other Consumer
Other Industrial
Other Cell Phone
Smartphone
Automotive
Computing
Video Game Console
GPS
PMP
MP3
DVD Player
DVD Recorder
Blu Ray Player
Blu Ray Recorder
Set Top Box
DTV
Digital Video Camera
Digital Camera
Handheld Video Game
Smartphone MEMS Exceed Auto by 2013
MEMS Shipments by Applications (Millions of Units)
Source: Semico Research Corp.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
ns
of
Un
its
Display
Other Consumer
Other Industrial
Other Cell Phone
Smartphone
Automotive
Computing
Video Game Console
GPS
PMP
MP3
DVD Player
DVD Recorder
Blu Ray Player
Blu Ray Recorder
Set Top Box
DTV
Digital Video Camera
Digital Camera
Handheld Video Game
Digital Photo Frame
Micro Electro-Optical Mechanical System (MEOMS)
• What is it? – Specific form of MEMS for display applications
• Projecting images
• Direct view
• Technology Goal – Lower power
– Lower cost
– Improved imaging
• What are the applications? – Heads-up display (Automotive, Aerospace)
– eReaders
– Pico projectors
– Medical Apps
– Glasses and goggles
Who Are The MEOMS Players?
Projection (DLP)
– TI
– Microvision
– bTendo
– Maradin
– Mirrorcle
Direct View
– Qualcomm
• Mirasol
• Pixtronix
– Unipixel
MEOMS Sales Will Grow 79.1% CAGR
MEMS Oscillators
• Timing market $6.3 billion in 2011
• MEMS oscillators only $52.6 million
• Trying to compete with well-established
quartz crystal oscillators
Source: NXP
MEMS Oscillators
• MEMS Oscillators offer • Better reliability – better vibration and shock sensitivity • Longer Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) • Programmable frequency – enable fast delivery • Wider range of frequencies • Stability over temperature range and lifetime as good as or
better than quartz • Scalability due to the use of standard semiconductor
manufacturing technology • Small size – enables smaller package and integration into
multi-chip package • Lower power consumption
• But Quartz Crystal • Is well established
• System designers are accustomed to using quartz crystal
MEMS Oscillators Only 1% of Total Timing Market
Source: Semico Research Corp.
• Computing is
currently the largest
application for
MEMS oscillators
• Cell phones poised
for potential growth –
as many as 7 timing
elements in a smart
phone
Oscillator Units by Application
Companies Offering MEMS Oscillators
• Discera
• IDT
• NXP
• Seiko Epson
• Silicon Labs
• SiTime
• Abracon
• Eclipteck
• IQD
• Micro Oscillator, Inc.
• Sand9
• TXC Corp.
IDT pMEMS
More on the way…
MEMS vs Quartz Oscillator Penetration
Source: Semico Research Corp.
More manufacturing options • New manufacturing technologies
• Capacity from foundries
Eroding ASPs
More applications coming
More companies entering the market
Expect mergers and buyouts
Integration • One or more sensors
• Sensor with control logic
• Sensor with control logic, memory and other components
MEMS Market Trends
• What is Sensor Fusion
• Market Potential and Trends
• Challenges
• Future Development
15
What is Sensor Fusion?
• Objective: combine data to extract and use
information.
– Derive intelligence
• Encompasses both HW and SW elements
• Combining two or more sensors
– Discrete, multi-chip, or integrated
• Many data sources:
– MEMS, non-MEMS and cloud based
• Sensor Fusion algorithm that works with
OS and apps
16
10 Axis Frame of Reference
Source: Freescale
17
Why Sensor Fusion?
• Initial reason was to improve accuracy and
reliability of IMUs
• Add data to 3D axes frame of reference
– Altitude, ambient light, temperature, GPS, proximity,
touch screen, etc.
• Sensor Fusion a fundamental tool for advanced
apps and services for portable devices
– Information for different usage models
• Sensor Fusion enables context awareness, motion
tracking and augmented reality
18
Advantages of Sensor Fusion
• Improved accuracy of data
• Power savings – System Power management, turn off power hungry
components when not needed
– Off load processing for application processor
• Enable new applications – Necessary for context awareness, motion tracking,
voice recognition, gesture recognition, augmented
reality
• Flexibility of Sensor Fusion design and
algorithm features allow OEMs to
differentiate 19
Market Potential and Trends
• Progression of sensors to Sensor Fusion
– Simple interrupts: screen orientation, tap
detection, fall detection
– IMUs for LBS and navigation
– IMUs and other data sources
• programmable gesture recognition and context
awareness
• Increasing number of sensors and other
data sources
– Tapping the cloud for data
– More complex algorithms
20
Market Potential
• Sensor Fusion enhances user experience
with portable devices
– Drive new sales of products
• Growth driven by smartphones
– In constant motion, very personal
• Competing devices will add more features
to keep up with smartphones:
– Tablet PCs and notebook PCs (Ultraportables)
• Key growth markets today will provide
basis for future end use markets
21
Systems with Sensor Fusion
22
Source: Semico Research
New End Use Markets and Applications
• Gaming
• HUD
• Sports
• Health and fitness
• Personal medical
• Personal navigation
• Context awareness
• Voice recognition
• Visual recognition
• Augmented reality
• Automotive
Number of Axes
• Increasing number of
MEMS sensors and
other data sources
• Leverage smartphone
developments
• Windows 8 requires
9-axis minimum
• Regular feature
phones improve, but
price/performance
gap w/ smartphone
24
Source: Semico Research
Sensor Fusion TAM for MEMS Sensors
25
Source: Semico Research
Sensor Fusion Market Trends
• Sensor Hub
– Collects data from sensors and other sources
– Controller with embedded Sensor Fusion
algorithm
• Filtering, signal processing, other
– Interfaces with main CPU and OS
– Faster response than CPU
– Future integration with CPU
• Sensor Hub & algorithm partitioning debate
– Embed Sensor Fusion algorithm in Sensor Hub
vs CPU
26
The OS and APIs
• Windows 8 and Android designed for
Sensor Fusion
• Converting the raw data into useful
information for APIs
27
Source: Geek.com and Microsoft
Windows 8: 9-axis Sensor Fusion
Intel’s Sensor Hub Recommendation
28
Source: Intel
Sensor Fusion Market Trends
• MEMS sensor ASPs continue to erode
• Increasing number of sensors
• MEMS sensor costs for sensor fusion stay
within a tight range
– Increasing capabilities, stay within cost budget
• New applications will drive future MEMS
developments
– Lower noise, higher accuracy, lower cost
– Integrate HW accelerator for applications
29
Challenges
• Standards need to be developed
– MEMS sensors, e.g. measuring performance
– OS and APIs
• Sensors with lower noise, improved
accuracy and stability, lower cost
– High volume consumer markets
• Improved tools
– Sensor Fusion algorithm development
• More data sources and usage models
– Application development
30
Development Tools
• Time to market, fast changing consumer
products
– modeling sensors and their behavior
• Windows 8 offers Sensor Framework
• Intel offers SDK
• Evaluation kits from MEMS vendors
• More help for application developers
– APIs are very mathematical today
– Interactive system
• SF transparent to app developers
– Opens up more markets for SF adoption
31
Summary
• Huge potential in new MEMS applications
• Improved MEMS sensors
– Integrated HW accelerators
• Integrating Sensor Hub controller on CPU
• Improved development tools
• Standards for MEMS, OS and APIs
• Interaction with the cloud for data
• New end use markets
32
Thank You
Recent Semico Reports:
– Sensor Fusion: The Elements are Converging
– Augmented Reality: Envision a More
Intelligent World
– NFC: Security at Hand
More information contact:
Rick Vogelei 602-997-0337 / [email protected]
33
Questions for Semico
