Upload
dcford
View
131
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Author – Jim Feldhan
Presented by David Ford 3/16 with permission from Semico Research Corp.
March 9, 2009
Recession Frame of Mind
Some will emerge stronger
Long or Short ?
Shallow or Deep ?
Uncertainty
Recovery
Doom and Gloom
Recessions present opportunities
Cut selectively to invest strategically
Become indispensable to your customers*
*Be seen as valuable to your target employer
Fly Me to the Moon
• 3 former Presidents
• 168 Corporations
• Individuals
Buying land on the moon!
CRAZY?
• It is estimated there is 1,100,000 metric tons of He3 on the lunar surface
• 1 million metric tons of He3 would generate 20,000 terawatt-years of thermal energy
• 25 tons of He3 would power the U.S. for 1 year at current consumption. That is the max space shuttle payload.
• Could power the US for 10,000 years
Crazy or
Thinking Outside of the Box
“But the time has come to inquire seriously what will
happen when… the coal, the iron, the oil, and the gas are
exhausted, ……”
Green Markets are They New?
“Our natural resources are being consumed, wasted, and destroyed at a rate which threatens them with exhaustion…the coal, iron, oil, gas, and the like, does not reproduce itself ”
Theodore Roosevelt
1908 Governors Conference
“The exhaustion is certain to come in time. We can trust that
it will be deferred long enough to enable the extraordinarily
inventive genius of our people to devise means and
methods for more or less adequately replacing what is lost;
but the exhaustion is sure to come.”
Crazy or
Thinking Outside of the Box
• Synfuels International Inc. producing a high
octane gasoline from methane. Conceived at
Texas A & M, cost $25 per barrel.
• AlGa– Hydrogen on demand by adding water
• Solar power plastic
• Virus Li-ion battery
• Algae farm in Mexico ethanol from algae 6,000
gallons/acre/yr, corn's rate 370 gallons/acre/yr
sugar cane's 890 gallons/acre/yr.
Wireless Recharging
• MIT successfully demonstrated at 3‟ & 6‟ distances
• Ultimate in recharging convenience in home and office
• Wirelessly powering pacemakers and artificial hearts
Futuristic Windshield
GM researchers
are working on a
windshield that
combines lasers,
infrared sensors
and a camera to
enhance the road
safety.
Fuel Cells to Samsung
• Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Corporation
(DMFCC) will deliver disposable methanol
fuel cartridges to Samsung for integration
into portable electronics like notebook
computers, mobile phones and small
portable power stations.
• Toshiba also taking delivery
• Other technology Solid Hydrogen Storage
4G and WiMax – Its Here!
• 4G Long Term
Evolution (LTE) service
with the aim of
launching commercial
service in 2010
– download rates of 50 to
60 megabits per second
• The 700 MHz spectrum
previously used for
television signals, was
acquired by Verizon,
AT&T and others
„Super' Batteries and Capacitors
• MIT Technology Review is
reporting on a breakthrough
in manufacturing thin,
dense films of carbon
nanotubes that could
improve electrodes used in
'super' batteries
What‟s Different This Time Around?
2000/2001 vs. 2008/2009
– Growth rates, inventories, market reactions• 2000 tech bubble that burst in Q4 2000
• Dramatic capacity increases
• Increased inventories for 2 years and ignored the build-up
• Many Dot-com companies disappeared in 2001
– 2008 was a down year• No tech bubble
• Inventory reduction started in Q3 2008
• Little capacity expansion
World Semiconductor Market
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
$ in Billions
Inventory Excess
Recession Forecast
2012
Other Semico Summit Info
• For the 1st time, in 2008 there were more pings
for social networking…..
• Unlike other trade organizations, shows,
conferences; this Summit had 100 C-level and
20 non-C attendees, 10% MORE than 2008‟s
Summit
• All the major fabs (and vertical companies with
in-house fabs) raised their forecasts in the last 3
weeks
More…continued
• Virtually all the CEOs reported that their
major layoffs are done and expenses are
now below (low estimated) revenue.
– Company healthy now (tough but needed)
– Upturn in $ will result in profit
• Innovation continues – talent required!