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OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGES
Presentation by Mrs. Gabriela Ramos, Chief of Staff and G20 Sherpa, OECD
Global Summit of Women, June 6 2014, Paris
OECD’s membership and global reach
2
Key Partners: BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesia South Africa
Key Partners: BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesia South Africa
34 member countries34 member countries
New Members: Chile Estonia Israel Slovenia
New Members: Chile Estonia Israel Slovenia
Ongoing membership talks with Russia, Colombia & Latvia
Ongoing membership talks with Russia, Colombia & Latvia
Part I: Resuming Global GrowthGrowth in advanced economies is rebounding
Real GDP growthPer cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OECD
BRIICS
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database.
3
Part I: Resuming Global GrowthThe cylinders of growth are not yet fully activated and some risks continue to exist
Fixed investmentVolume index, 2007 = 100
Trade in goods and servicesVolume, year-on-year percentage change
2012 2013 2014 201570
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120United StatesJapanEuro area
Pre-crisis
2012 2013 2014 2015-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
World
Average growth of world trade (1990-
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook database; OECD calculations
OECD Financial Conditions Index (FCI)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014
United StatesJapanEuro area
Easier
cond
itions
Part I: Resuming Global GrowthThe costs of the crisis remain: Output gap
Source: OECD(2014), Economic Outlook5
Estimated effects of the crisis on the potential output per capita of individual OECD countries
Difference in 2014
Part I: Resuming Global Growth The costs of the crisis remain: Increased unemployment and inequality
Long-term trends in inequality of disposable income (Gini coefficient)
Source: OECD Income Distribution Database, www.oecd.org/social/income-distribution-database.htmNote: Income refers to disposable income adjusted for household size.
Part I: Resuming Global Growth The costs of the crisis remain: Increased unemployment and inequality (cont)Long-term trends in inequality of disposable income, cont.
Source: OECD Income Distribution Database, www.oecd.org/social/income-distribution-database.htmNote: Income refers to disposable income adjusted for household size.
Part II: Longer Term ProspectsPossible lower overall growth with rising middle class, and shifting regional wealth
Share of the global economy in PPP terms (2000-2030)
Note: These data apply Maddison’s long-term growth projections to his historical PPP-based estimates for 29 OECD member countries and 129 non-member economies.Source: OECD (2010), Perspectives on Global Development 2010: Shifting Wealth, OECD Publishing
• Projection of overall growth rate at 3% per annum until 2060
• Shifting wealth to developing and emerging economies
8
Part II: Longer Term ProspectsGVCs will continue to increase and shape the production landscape
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Foreign value-added content of exports by selected partner
country, 1995 and 2009(as a % of exports)
Foreign value-added content of exportsOECD countries (as a % of exports)
1995 2009
24,6% 29 %
Source: OECD/WTO (2013), OECD-WTO: Statistics in Trade in Value Added, in OECD(2013), InterconnectedEconomies: Benefiting from Global Value Chains. OECD Publishing
9
Part II: Longer Term ProspectsServices are increasingly strategic
10
OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index: Mexico
Part III: Future sources of growthFuture growth prospects will be based on productivity-enhancing innovation
Business investment in KBC and tangible capital, United States, 1972-2011
(% of adjusted GDP)
Note: Estimates are for private industries excluding real estate, health and education.Source: Unpublished update on Corrado, C.A. and C.R. Hulten (2010), “How do you Measure a ‘Technological Revolution?”,American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100 (May 2010): 99–104, in OECD(2013), Supporting Innovation in Knowledge Based Gapital, Growth and Innovation, OECD Publishing, p.24 11
Source: OECD (2010), The Invention and Transfer of Environmental Technologies, OECD Publishing.
Part III: Future sources of growthFuture growth opportunities will be green
12
Patenting activity pre- and post-Kyoto Protocol’s adoption (3-year moving average, indexed on 1990=1.0, in Annex 1 ratification countries)
Part III: Future sources of growthWomen’s empowerment and entrepreneurship will be a key driver of growth
Source: World Bank Gender dataset based on ILO Key Indicators of the Labour Market, OECD (2014) Women in Business: Accelerating Entrepreneurship in the Middle East and North Africa Region, preliminary version 13
Male and female labour force participation rates, 2011, selected regions of the world
24
54 58 62 6478 83 84 79 77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
MENA Low & middleincome
Latin America &Caribbean (allincome levels)
OECD members Sub-Saharan Africa
Female
Male
Part III: Future sources of growthWomen’s empowerment and entrepreneurship will be a key driver of growth Share of women-owned and women-managed
registered businesses in selected regions(firms with 5+ employees, latest available year, percentage)
Source: World Bank Enterprise Survey, in OECD (2014), Women in Business: Accelerating Entrepreneurship in the Middle East and North Africa Region, preliminary version, p.58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
All Countries East Asia &Pacific
EasternEurope &
Central Asia
Latin America& Caribbean
Middle East &North Africa
South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
Percentage of firms with female participation in ownership
Percentage of firms with a female top manager
14
Part III: Future sources of growthSustainable growth will need to be inclusive
Drop in inequality in many emerging and developing economies in the past decade
Gini coefficients in selected emerging market economies and developing countries, 2000 and 2010
Source: World Development Indicators, 2012, in OECD(2014), All on Board: Making Inclusive Growth Happen, OECD Publishing.15
Thank you.