Operational Oceanography Forecasting System in Developing ...godae-data/Symposium/GOV-presentations/… · • Developing countries are more vulnerable to ocean hazards due to lack

GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013


Operational Oceanography Forecasting System in Developing

Countries

Hui Wang

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center ,

State Oceanic Administration, China

www.godae-oceanview.org


Outline

• Background

• Operational systems in developing countries

• Discussion


Background

• Developing countries are more vulnerable to ocean hazards due to lack of knowledge of adjacent marginal and coastal seas, and moreover, capability in operational oceanography.

• In recent years some of the larger (richer) developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa have started building their own operational ocean forecasting systems in response to resilient economic growth.

• Overall, the field of operational oceanography in developing countries is either growing at a high rate, grappling to become established, or in most cases does not exist at all.


Why developing countries need their own OOFS?

• Have relatively more knowledge of their adjacent sea.

• In addition to the field observation network in the adjacent seas of developing countries, some developing countries, e.g. China, Brazil and India, have the remote sensing ability with global coverage.

• Own security consideration


China India Indonesia South Africa Kenya Negria Brazil Chile

Forum Themes

1. Operational Oceanography Forecasting

2. Ocean Research and Modeling

3. Ocean Observations and Data Analysis

4. Ocean data assimilation

48 scientists and students from 8 countries participated in the forum.


OceanSAfrica-South Africa an integrated capability for marine observations and forecasting

• The OceanSAfrica is a multi-institutional initiative that Aims to develop operational oceanography activities in South Africa and, eventually, throughout the rest of Africa.

• This goal was conceived at the first ACCESS OO meeting held in Cape Town in July 2009.

• It will now enter a second phase designed to build and showcase substantial national, regional and African capabilities as explicit components of international marine operational programmes.

• Its operational vision: “Through a combination of modelling and observations we will deliver regular and systematic information on the state of the ocean that is of known quality and accuracy on open ocean to shelf-scales.”

• South Africa is strong in ocean modeling, and has operational ocean buoy networks in place, and are currently assimilating observation data into numerical models. However, it has not achieve the phase of offering formal operational forecasts.


an integrated capability for marine observations and forecasting


INDOFOS-India

• In 2010, INCOIS setup the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS) based on an Indian Ocean setup of ROMS.

• In 2011, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System developed by NCEP, USA was also ported to INCOIS.

• During 2012-2017, INCOIS is planning to set up a High resolution Operational Ocean analysis and Forecast System (HOOFS).

• India offer formal operational forecasts, and moreover, has a formal, coherent and funded program/project to establish operational oceanography. It is strong in ocean modeling, and has operational ocean buoy networks in place, and are currently assimilating observation data into numerical models.



REMO-Brazil

• Oceanographic Modeling and Observation Network (Portuguese acronym REMO) main goal is to undertake research and technological development in physical and operational oceanography with focus on the South Atlantic Ocean and regions along the Brazilian coast using assimilative models and observational data.

• REMO started in 2008 and in 2011 it has joined the GODAE Oceanview. The project is now renewed for a 3-year period (2012-2015).

• Operational phase for the fixed regional grids along the Brazilian coast: i) E (2013), ii) S-SE (2014) and iii) N-NE (2014)

• Brazil is strong in ocean modeling, and has operational ocean buoy networks in place, and are currently assimilating observation data into numerical models. It is presently moving into a pre-operational mode. However, Brazil does not have a formal, coherent and funded program/project to establish operational oceanography.


METAREA V - Brazilian responsibility (WMO-

IOC/JCOMM) for marine forecasts and

warnings:

• N/NE grid – 1/24o

637 x 435 grid points

(56oW - 30oW; 10oN - 8oS)

32 Sigma levels

• E grid – 1/36o


(40oW - 32oW; 8oS - 19oS)

32 Sigma levels

• S/SE grid – 1/24o


(53.3oW - 32.4oW; 12.3oS - 33.7oS)

32 Sigma levels

• HYCOM – 1/12º and 1/24o

METAREA-V and S/SE grid


NMEFC-China

• NMEFC, Chinese national center for ocean forecasting

• Affiliated with the State Oceanic Administration that receives financial support from the Chinese government

• 358 scientists and forecasters

• Authorized by the State Council Academic Degrees Committee of Physical Oceanography and Meteorology to grant Master’s degrees

• Leading authority that specializes in marine environmental and disaster forecasting and warning systems, scientific research, and consulting services

• Actively engaged in partnerships with international scientists and agencies


National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) issues marine

hazards and environmental forecast products, including storm surge, huge wave,

sea Ice, El-Nino, tsunami , sea temperature, current, salinity, oil spill, green tide,

search and rescue…

Storm surge Tsunami Sea Ice

Red tide Oil spill Current

Tourist Destination

Seasonal ENSO forecast

Forecasting products

Warnings

Storm surge Wave

Tsunami

Sea ice

Environmental Forecast

SST Current Red tide

Green tide ENSO

&Climate

Marine weather Marine emergency

Leakage Search and

rescue Oil spill

... ...


1. Global Ocean

2. India Ocean

3. North West Pacific

4. East China Sea

5. South China Sea

6. Polar regions

-CGOFS

GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 11/20/2013

Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS)

• Purpose

– Provide ocean wave, temperature, salinity and currents

from global to regional ocean

• Provides improvements in wave and current predictions

– Incorporates the astronomical tides and river inflows

– data assimilation capabilities (Argo , altimetry, in-situ

data……)

• Enables future development

– Improved high resolution of bays, inlets, and barrier

islands


Schematic Diagram of CGOFS

Verification

preproce

ss

Data

Assimilat

ion

Regional Atmospheric

model-WRF

OGCM MOM4 、ROMS

NWW、SWAN…

Product

coupled

Atmospheric

forcing

NCEP/GFS Open boundary

observa

tions

improvement Network Specific users

figures、

forecast、data

Scientific decision-making


3D Visualization by WebGIS

Sea Surface Wind


Sea Surface Wind


Global Indian Ocean Northwest Pacific East/South China Seas

Res. 1°/3 1°/6 1°/10 1°/30

Model NWW3 SWAN

Wind forcing NCEP/GFS WRF

DA scheme OI

DA data HY-2 significant wave height

Products significant wave height，period，direction

Time 120hr

Release To: website & specific users with data and fiugres


Global Indian Ocean Northwestern

Pacific East/South China Sea

Resolution 1/4°, 50 L 1/12°, 20L 1/20°, 22L 1/30°, 30L/36L

OGCM MOM4 ROMS

Assimilation scheme

3DVar EnOI

Data assimilated

RTGSST，SSH， Argo T/S

MGDSST SSH

MGDSST SSH

MGDSST，SSH，Argo T/S

Product temperature、current (surface，20m，50m，100m，200m，500m,1000m，profiles)

Forecast range

120hr

Ocean Circulation Model Configurations


CGOFS Products

Global Sea Surface Temperature Global Sea Surface Current

Sea Surface Temperature Salinity at 400m Sea Surface Current

(2) Indian Ocean

(1) Global Ocean


CGOFS Products

(3) Northwestern Pacific

(4) East China Sea (5) South China Sea


Surface Current Surface Temperature


Resolution ： 18km

Model： MITgcm coupled

Initialization:：AMSR2 ( SSMIS)

Atmosphere Forcing: GFS

DA scheme: Nudging

Products: concentration/thickness/velocity

Time : 120h


Product showcase


Services

Escort mission in the Gulf of Arden

Radioactive Monitoring

Antarctic Support

Submersible Jiaolong

Arctic support

Zhongshan Station Great Wall Station

Fishery fields


1

2 3

4

6 5 5

7

1、West Pacific(Tuna) 2、Northwest Pacific 3、Mid-East Pacific(Tuna) 4、Mid-West Pacific(Tuna) 5、Southwest Atlantic 6、Pacific(Bamboo CE trawl)

7、Indian Ocean(Tuna)

Tidal Current

Temperature Tidal Current

Current

Surface Wind 500hPa Dynamic height Tidal Current

Salinity

Global 7 Fisheries Forecasts

Application (1) — Global


Global Coastal Tourist Destinations Forecasts


Forecasts for Travel Channel (20130521)

City Wave Temperature City Wave Temperature

Da Lian Slight 10.7 Maldives Moderate 29.0

Vladivostok Slight 5.9 Cape Town Moderate 16.2

Jeju Slight 17.7 Rio de Janeiro Moderate 24.2

Tokyo Slight 18.4 Lisbon Moderate 17.9

Shanghai Slight 19.1 Barcelona Slight 16.6

Keelung Slight 24.9 Bergen Rough 8.3

San Ya Slight 28.8 Hamburger Very Rough 11.2

Hong Kong Slight 25.8 San Francisco Rough 11.6

Bangkok Slight 31.0 New York Slight 13.0

Singapore Slight 30.9 Sydney Slight 22.4

Dubai Slight 27.7 Hawaii Moderate 25.8


Submersible Jiaolong Exploration in Pacific



•Update frequency: once per day

•Product: Temperature,

Current,

Significant wave height,

Wave direction

•Forecast range : 72hours

Escort Mission in the Strait of Malacca

Escort Mission in the Gulf of Aden

Application (2) — Indian Ocean


X10

140 145 150 155 160 165 170 17535

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175-5000

-4500

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

Tracer trajectory 3D-Lagrangrian drifter trajectory

Nuclear contaminant transport

from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant

Application (3) —Northwestern Pacific



Ecological forecasts

Surface Chlorophyll-a Feb, 2009 Surface Nitrate Feb, 2009

Surface Silicate Feb, 2009

GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 33

pCO2 ---- ecological forecast experiment (under construction)



Application (4/5) — East/South China Sea

Application on Emergency cases — Search and Rescue

Forecasts for trajectory of vessels

lost motion and drowning person


Forecas for SAR activities

near Xisha Islands during typhoon “Butterfly（1321#）”（2013）

Time： 2013.9.29. 5 ships 88 persons 3 ships sinking 14 lives died ,26 saved,48 missing


June 2011, Oil Spill in Bohai Bay July 2010, Explosion in Dalian Xingang

Factory explosion

Liaoning

Dalian Bay


Application on Emergency cases — Oil Spill


Polluted Area: 5500 km2

Affected coast lines: Tangshan, Qinhuangdao etc.

Comparison with satellite results

Conocophillips Oil 19-3 platform leak incident(2011)


Product: wind field, wave


National Marine environmental Forecasting and Service System for Fisheries security


• Provide forecasting service since the first

cruise to Antactic in 1984 and all the 28

cruises ever since, as well as the 4 cruises to

Arctic.

• Real time monitor of atmosphere， sea ice

and environment during the last two years

• Developed the first sea ice numerical

forecasting system for polar regions

Great Wall Station Zhongshan Station

Arctic Sea ice Antarctic Sea ice

Application (6) — Arctic and Antarctic Seas


Future Plan

• Improve global forecasting system

• Downscale from global ocean to regional and coastal systems

• Improve data assimilation schemes

• Seasonal forecast

• Marine ecosystem forecasting systems


Discussion

Areas which require attention in developing countries:

• internal and regional optimization of resources

• access to high performance computing

• improved capacity in data assimilation

• quality assurance of databases with high speed open access

• communal identification of existing and new efforts, projects and collaboration.


Collaboration and development can be strengthened by joint

• deployment of instrumentation such as XBTs and Argo floats

• research field projects especially in those regions that are not regularly visited by international research vessels

• joint funding application

• hosting of a summer school and promotion of a student-scientist-technician exchange program


• The community of developing countries should be formally organized. It was agreed in the 12th CAS-TWAS-WMO Forum that the Forum for Operational Oceanography in Developing Countries (OODC) was proposed and accepted as an interim name. The participants clearly articulated that the forum must be driven by scientific and technical objectives and as far as possible avoid political interventions.

• The OODC should be formally linked to GODAE OceanView as a task team (TT) to ensure international recognition and state of the art information sharing. Such formality should assist coordination in this community and fund raising for meetings.

A Proposal


Thanks for Your Attention


1

2 3

4

6 5 5

7

Tidal Current

Temperature Tidal Current

Current

Surface Wind 500hPa Dynamic height Tidal Current

Salinity

Global 7 Fisheries Fields


Global Coastal Tourist Destinations Forecasts

Forecasts for Travel Channel (20130521)

City Wave Temperature City Wave Temperature

Da Lian Slight 10.7 Maldives Moderate 29.0

Vladivostok Slight 5.9 Cape Town Moderate 16.2

Jeju Slight 17.7 Rio de Janeiro Moderate 24.2

Tokyo Slight 18.4 Lisbon Moderate 17.9

Shanghai Slight 19.1 Barcelona Slight 16.6

Keelung Slight 24.9 Bergen Rough 8.3

San Ya Slight 28.8 Hamburger Very Rough 11.2

Hong Kong Slight 25.8 San Francisco Rough 11.6

Bangkok Slight 31.0 New York Slight 13.0

Singapore Slight 30.9 Sydney Slight 22.4

Dubai Slight 27.7 Hawaii Moderate 25.8


Shipping routes wave forecasts


•Product: Significant wave height,

Wave direction



Submersible “Jiaolong” Exploration



•Product: Temperature,

Current,

Significant wave height,

Wave direction


Escort Mission in the Strait of Malacca

Escort Mission in the Gulf of Aden


X10

140 145 150 155 160 165 170 17535

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175-5000

-4500

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

Tracer trajectory 3D-Lagrangrian drifter trajectory

Nuclear contaminant transport

from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant


51

Search and Rescue

Forecasts for trajectory of vessels

lost motion and drowning person


• Provide forecasting service since the first cruise to Antactic in 1984 and all the 28 cruises ever since, as well as the 4 cruises to Arctic.

• Real time monitor of atmosphere， sea ice and environment during the last two years

• Developed the first sea ice numerical forecasting system for polar regions

Great Wall Station Zhongshan Station Arctic and Antarctic

Regions


Global Indian ocean Northwest Pacific East/South China Seas

Res. 1°/4，50 L 1°/12，20L 1°/20，22L 1°/30，30(36) L

Model MOM4 ROMSv3.5

Wind forcing

GFS/CGOFS-wind NMEFC-WRF

DA scheme 3DVar EnOI

DA data RTGSST，SSH，

Argo T/S

MGDSST

SSH

MGDSST

SSH

MGDSST,SSH，Argo

T/S

Products Temperature, Salinity、current (surface，20m，50m，100m，200m，500m &

1000m，sections)

Time 120hr

Release To：website, specific users, decision making

As: Data & figures


CGOFS-Global wave

Resolution：

1/3o×1/3o

Area：

0-360o，78oS-78oN

Model：

NWW3

Data Assimilation：

OI

Products：

Significant wave height、period、direction

Figures & data

Time：

120hr

Atmosphere Forcing

GFS

Documents

Operational Oceanography Forecasting System in Developing ...godae-data/Symposium/GOV-presentations/… · • Developing countries are more vulnerable to ocean hazards due to lack