OPERATIONAL AND OBSERVATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY: INTEGRATION FROM THE SOUTHERN OCEAN TO THE COAST

SOUTH AFRICA-NORWAY SCIENCE WEEK 2016

3 November 2016

Kirstenbosch National Botanical Garden

Dr Deirdre Byrne Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), South Africa; Mr Johan Stander, SA Weather

Service;, Drs Bjorn Backeberg and Stewart Bernard, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR); Drs

Charine Collins and Juliet Hermes, South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON)

SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL OPERATIONAL INTERESTS EXTEND TO ANTARCTICA

2

SOUTH AFRICA PLAYS A CRITICAL REGIONAL OPERATIONAL ROLE IN

MARITIME SECURITY

• In addition to WMO

Met Area VII

• Serves operational

security needs of a

number of neighbouring

countries:

oAngola,

oNamibia,

oMozambique &

oMadagascar3

Image credit:

Ansorge & Lutjeharms, 2007

INDIAN OCEAN:

The Agulhas Current is

one of the strongest

currents in the world:

average current speeds

of 4–5 knots recorded.

It is also one of the most

important shipping lanes

in the global ocean, and

also one of the most

dangerous… there is a

high risk of rogue waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN: The Benguela Upwelling System is the

strongest coastal upwelling system in the world, supporting a

rich fishery with catches of rock lobster, cods, hakes and

haddock, sardines and anchovies of over a million tons per

year.

CLOSER TO HOME – MORE DERIVED VALUE, MORE RISK

SUBANTARCTIC ZONE: The Prince

Edward Islands are bellwethers of global

climate change and extend the SA

exclusive economic zone ~1350

kilometers further South.

4

HIGH ECONOMIC VALUE DOMAIN

Economic activities in SA’s coastal ocean and

shelf seas are extensive, including

• Shipping: Ports and harbours

• Oil and gas exploration and drilling

• Fisheries and aquaculture farms

• Marine Protected Areas

Density map showing global marine

shipping lanes – South Africa lies at the

nexus of a globally important shipping

route.

5

Credit : Eric Mortenson, Doug Beghtel / The Oregonian, www.naturalbuy.com, USCG, http://i.livescience.com/,

Grantham et al. (2002)

Information on this slide courtesy of Dr Eric Bayler, NOAA WCOFS project.

Information about shelf currents

and conditions and better coastal

information helps to address

- Oil spills

- Harmful algae blooms

- Hypoxia

- Marine accidents

- Marine debris

- Coastal development

and provides information for

- Sustainable fisheries

- Safe navigation

- Cost-effective transportation

- Recreation

- Risk assessment

- Resilient communities

- Public awareness and education 6

• Coastal urbanisation stresses existing infrastructure, posing health and disaster risks to people and

eco-tourism (beachgoing, whale watching) and threatens the coastal environment.

• Lack of information prevents efficient utilisation of resources and puts lives at risk needlessly.

• Poaching, bilge dumps and oil spills threaten sustainable fishing.

Needs that can be met with the provision of timeous and relevant operational information:

• Coastal development - avoiding high-risk zones and sensitive ecosystems

• Shellfish harvesting – reduce health hazards posed by toxic algal blooms,

• Fisheries management response to Harmful Algal Blooms and other events,

• Effective tracking and prediction of bilge dumps and oil spills.

• Identification of foreign ships operating illegally in South African waters

• Better management of fish stocks

• Safer maritime operations from improved marine conditions and forecasts

SOUTH AFRICAN OCEAN ECONOMY:RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

7

STAKEHOLDER NEEDS AND REQUIREMENTS

• Improved ocean state nowcasts and forecasts

• Improved maritime sea state and extreme conditions alerts

• Improved tools for fisheries management

• Improved information for coastal developments and offshore

operations

• Climate and weather forecasts and predictions

Timely dissemination of all the above information8

THE THREE PILLARS OF OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY

9

In S

itu O

bse

rvation

s

Rem

ote

Sensing

Mod

ellin

g

Information Systems

DECISIONMAKING

Operational

Oceanography

It is not research!

Pathway through

which research can

have positive

societal impact.

WHAT ISAN OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PRODUCT?

• Clear Mandate

• Institutional Producer

• Regular and reliable

• Provides real-time information

• Fitness for purpose understood

(well-characterized)

• Defined product life cycle10

NEEDS AND REQUIREMENTS FOR OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY

IN SOUTH AFRICA

• Regular coordination with relevant stakeholders (SA Navy, government

departments, SAMSA, marine and maritime operators).

• Dedicated in situ infrastructure: Real time buoy systems, gliders and HF

radar.

• Increased shore-based infrastructure (e.g., computing, communications)

• Nowcasting and short-term forecasting from numerical models

• Routine generation of remote sensing products tuned or subset to local

area.

• Dedicated technical support and staffing

• Appropriate training programmes

• Ownership and commitment by lead Government organisation(s)

• Time-frame: 5-10 year development horizon

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IN SITU OPERATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEANSAWS OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS AND SERVICES IN METAREA VII

• Drifting Weather Buoys

• Deployment of drifting weather Buoys

• Maintenance of Moored buoys (SAWS instruments thereon)

• QC and Research in drifting and types of buoys

• Evaluation of instruments standards and manufacturers.

• Ships of Opportunity

• Provision of meteorological observations and upper air data for the International community.

• Regular maintenance and calibration of all International vessels participating in the programme

• Data capturing and quality control of all observation data

• Recruitment of new voluntary observing ships (VOS) with regards to observations and

deployment of drifting weather buoys

• Island weather stations at Gough, Marion and SANAE collection of data from these Islands

throughout the year

• Weather forecasting

• Forecasts and Warnings to all mariners

• Assisting in Search and Rescue with GDMSS as guide

• Hindcasting and research especially after maritime incidents

• Ice prediction as of 2017

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IN SITU MONITORING – CURRENT AND PLANNED

Current

• Routine surveys of top predators and protected species

• Rocky shores monitoring (coastal change analysis)

• Provision of meteorological observations and upper air data for the International community.

• Regular maintenance and calibration of all International vessels participating in the programme

• Monitoring for permitting (discharge)

• West Coast Integrated Ecosystem Surveys (ship-based, quarterly, comprehensive)

13

Photo credit: CPUT

Planned

• Operational buoy network (met., physical, and

chemical)

• Coastal water quality

• Acoustics

• Routine glider transects

A wide range of environmental satellite data in an appropriateIS architecture to ensure both value and redundancy…

Ocean BiogeochemistryOcean Physics

Sea State Monitoring &

Maritime Operations Support

Fisheries operational support

and compliance monitoring

Water Quality and Harmful

Algal Bloom Monitoring

Radar Currents,

Winds, Waves

AVISO / RADS

ASCAT

GlobCurrent

Sentinel 1 SAR

Radarsat-2

Temperature

ODYSSEA merged SST

MUR merged SST

Pathfinder SST CDR

SEVIRI hourly

NOAA VIIRS

MODIS Aqua

MODIS Terra

Sentinel 3 SLSTR

Ocean Colour

Sentinel 3

MODIS Aqua

MODIS Terra

NOAA VIIRS

Sentinel 2

Sentinel 3

High

space/time

resolution &

regional value

added sensor

products

Merged &

workhorse

operational

sensors

14

REMOTE SENSING - CURRENT STATUS –INFRASTRUCTURE UNDER DEVELOPMENT

VISION: COUPLED DOWNSCALING & FORECASTING

MODELLING - CURRENT STATUS:DECOUPLED SIMULATIONS AT A VARIETY OF

RESOLUTIONS, IN DEVELOPMENT

Regional scale

ocean circulation simulations

±10 km resolution in EEZ ±9 km resolution around South Africa

Shelf scale

ocean circulation simulations

Bay & harbour scale

circulation & wave simulations

<1 km resolution15

±5 km resolution 1-2 km resolution < 1 km resolution

Dynamic

downscaling

Dynamic

downscaling

Potential Fishing Zone Systems: development of

fishing support tools in conjunction with vessel

detection systems to reduce catch per unit effort

whilst improving compliance…

Harmful Algal Blooms & Water Quality:

development of monitoring and early warning

systems to help protect fisheries & aquaculture

capabilities and provide multi-stakeholder water

quality analytics…

Aquaculture Support Tools: development of earth

observation, hydrodynamic modelling and FARM

modeling to assist in the siting, viability and

operations of aquaculture facilities….

Development funded by

Operation Phakisa Initiative 6 16

DECISIONMAKINGKey Fisheries, Aquaculture & Water Quality Capability Areas

PRESERVE

OPERATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS:

DISCOVERINFORM

ACCESS USE

17

Protection

Monitoring

Event

mapping

Analytics &

visualisation

Geo-Spatial

Planning

MIMS – REPOSITORY OCIMS – DECISION-MAKING

Synthesis

Research is most valuable when conducted within a strong framework of large-scale, operational observations and long-term monitoring!

Climate trends, accretion of stresses, natural scales of variability and understanding of societal impact all provide essential context for shorter-term, focussed studies.

Large-scale context Clear societal benefit

Real-time informationLong-term trends

OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION

• Modelling and data assimilation R&D

• Localisation of in situ technologies

• Adoption of “best of breed” and lessons learned to

accelerate the R2O curve

• Human capacity development (Nansen-Tutu Centre)

• Collaborative projects (HF radar)

19

THANK YOU

BACKUP SLIDES

• In 2000, the estimated value of the direct benefits derived from all coastal goods and

services in South Africa was approximately 15% of the GDP. Indirect benefits

contributed another 12% for a total of 27% (source: State of the Environment Report,

2005 and StatsSA report P0441, 3rd quarter 2010). Including the delivery of goods via

maritime shipping increases the impact of marine activities by another 30% - to 57%.

• The ocean economy is a sector poised for major growth.

• Investment in ocean technologies provides the opportunity for capacity development,

high-tech jobs, possibilities for localisation of technologies and the further growth of

associated high-tech industries.

SOUTH AFRICAN OCEAN ECONOMY:IMPORTANCE

21

OPERATIONAL OCEAN INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES CAN SUPPORT:

Environmentally sound management of the coastal zone

• Ecological: hypoxia, HABs, pathogens, …

• Support Marine geospatial applications

• Support fisheries and other management

Salinity

SST

Predict the occurrence of Harmful or Toxic Marine Organisms

Courtesy of Dr Eric Bayler, NOAA WCOFS

project.

22

OPERATIONAL OCEAN INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES CAN SUPPORT:

Safe & efficient marine operations

• Information on sea state (roughness, swell period and direction)

• Marine Winds

• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability

• Accurate water levels a nice-to-have.

• Safety and Security – support Naval needs.

Emergency response

• Oil spills and bilge dumps – prediction and tracking, forecast environmental impact

• Search & Rescue efficiencyCourtesy of Dr Eric Bayler, NOAA WCOFS

project.

23

CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT

• Nansen-Tutu Centre-funded regional Data Assimilation R&D using HYCOM.

• DST-NRF funded R&D

• SAEON funded Shelf Modelling R&D on a ROMS platform (non-DA).

• CSIR-funded project on developing high resolution predictive and

observational capabilities for South African marine domains (coupling

HYCOM and Delft3D framework).

• Joint R2O effort.

• DEA- funded operational infrastructure and capacity development.

AIM AND PURPOSE OF THE SAWS MARINE METEOROLOGICAL UNIT

• Ensure that we attend to all International obligations as stipulated by the WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) and IMO (International Maritime Organization)

• Provide Marine Meteorological Observations data for usage by National, Regional and International Meteorological and well as Oceanographical Services/Institutions.

• Provide a reliable and up to date Marine Meteorological Weather Forecasts, which includes Marine weather related warnings to all users of the oceans but more specifically for the second biggest SOLAS (Safety Of Life At Sea) area, METAREA VII, for which South Africa must provide these services which includes GMDSS (Global Marine Distress Safety Systems)

• Provide a reliable marine warnings service for METAREA VII as part of SOLAS

• Ensure that we continuously contribute, present papers and participate in workshops, training sessions, panel/association meetings and or workshops and or conference on marine meteorology and oceanography

• Ensure that we build a strong relationship with all Marine related institutes of higher education, schools and or related organisation/institutions within SA with regards to marine Meteorology.

Through its marine and maritime activities, South Africa produces food, jobs, valuable

exports, and ever-increasing technical capacity. Aquaculture, commercial and recreational

fisheries, offshore prospecting and mining, renewable ocean energy, shipping, efficient port

operation, bioprospecting, coastal recreation and ecotourism are just some of the

industries that depend on reliable sources of marine information. And yet, the enormous

South African Exclusive Economic Zone (1,535,538 km2) remains largely

unmapped and unexplored. Even near the shore, basic surveys have yet to be

conducted in many areas.

We cannot sustainably utilise what we have not discovered, measured, and understood.

SOUTH AFRICAN OCEAN ECONOMY:THE CHALLENGE

ENSEMBLE OPTIMAL INTERPOLATION DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME

• Low computational cost

• Small sampling error (large ensemble)

• 3D-Multivariate, preserves model consistency

• Seasonally adjusted ensemble to account for seasonal and interannual

variability

• 7-day assimilation cycle

• Currently assimilating

1. Along-track sea level anomaly data from satellite altimeters

2. OSTIA sea surface temperatures

IMPACT OF DATA ASSIMILATION

Reso

lves

the e

ven

t sc

ale

Data assimilation improves mesoscale variability!

Gridded altimetry

underestimates EKE by a factor

of two

FREE run: Realistic magnitude,

incorrect spatial distributionASSIM run: Improved spatial

distribution

Global assimilative products

severely underestimate levels

of variability

Surface EKE from drifters

CURRENT WORK AND FUTURE PLANS

• Currently focussing on 2008-2009 time period.

• Future plans include assimilating

1. Ocean profile data

2. Surface currents from HF radar when available

EXISTING AND NEAR-FUTURE PROJECTS AND COMMON AREA/TOPICS FOR

COLLABORATIONS.

• BRICS proposed project – high-resolution physical and

biogeochemical modelling of the South African east coast (non

DA ROMS, Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM)), in conjunction

with Indian, Chinese and Brazilian partners. (Chinese partners:

Drs XUE Huijie ( ) and CHAI Fei ( ) of the South

China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of

Sciences)

• Indian Ocean Rim Association Academic Group operational

oceanography workshop to be held in Sri Lanka in November

• Hosting of COSS-TT in Cape Town in April 2017

Sentinel-2A MultiSpectral Imager

(MSI)

Image shows the default blue-green ratio

Chlorophyll algorithm OC3 at 10m

resolution for Saldanha Bay on 2016-10-

09

Output from ACOLITE, an atmospheric

correction and processor for Landsat-8

OLI and Sentinel-2A MSI, fully described

in Vanhellemont & Ruddick (2014, 2015,

2016)

Other ACOLITE outputs include:

Floating algae indices, Quasi-analytical

algorithm IOPs & Kd, suspended

particulate matter, turbidity, various

reflectance products

REMOTE SENSING: OCEAN COLOUR

31

National Oceans and Coastal Information Management SystemOceanographic and Ecological Decision Support Tools

Operation Phakisa Initiative 6: “National Ocean and Coastal

Information System and Extending Earth Observation Capability”

• Establish Earth Observation Technology Capacity for the South

African Extended Economic Zone as well as the extended

continental shelf by 2019/20;

• Establish and implement the Data and Earth Observation

Infrastructure required of the O&C IMS.

32

HYBRID COORDINATE OCEAN MODEL (HYCOM)

• Version 2.2

• 1/10º (±10km) regional HYCOM

• 30 hybrid layers

• Boundary conditions from Indian & Southern

Ocean HYCOM

• Forcing: ERA-interim reanalysis (1980–2014)

• Monthly river discharges from TOTAL Runoff

Integrating Pathways (TRIP, Oki and Sud 1998)

• Rivers are treated as a negative salinity flux with

an additional mass exchange (Schiller and

Kourafalou 2010)33

REGIONAL OCEAN MODELLING SYSTEM (ROMS)

• Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO)

• 1/12º (±9km) regional ROMS. Two high-resolution nested simulations planned.

• 42 sigma layers

• Boundary conditions from 1/4º (±25km) regional ROMS (SODA)

• Forcing: NCEP CFSR (1970–2010)

• River discharges and tides not included currently

• No Data Assimilation at present34

BAY AND HARBOUR SCALE SIMULATIONS

• Based on Delft3D suite

• Coupled wave-current modelling at sub-1km scale

• Limitation: poor boundary conditions.

• Sediment dynamics modelling

• Applications:

o Wave run-up and coastal vulnerability

o Under keel clearance studies

o Dredging operations

35

DEA’S MARINE INFORMATIONMANAGEMENT SYSTEM (MIMS) WILL:

Be based on international, open standards and best practices, e.g., OAIS / ISO-14721

(Open Archival Information System), ISO-19115 / SANS-1878 (spatial metadata

standard), etc.

Use third-party developed / supported packages wherever possible.

Be modular.

Be flexible.

Be format-agnostic – accept any data, although standard-conforming preferred.

Support data management features needed by science users – versioning, superseding,

search parameters.

Support the production of basic environmental indicators (e.g., HABs, upwelling index).

36

ISO-14721:2012 – OPEN ARCHIVAL INFORMATION SYSTEMAND OAIS RESPONSIBILITIES

An OAIS Archive shall:

• negotiate for and accept appropriate information from Producers;

• obtain sufficient control to ensure Long Term Preservation;

• determine what is the Designated Community, and define its Knowledge

Base;

• ensure that the information is Independently Understandable to the

Designated Community;

• follow documented policies and procedures which ensure that the

information is preserved;

• make the preserved information available to the Designated Community,

including a chain of provenance.

An Open Archival Information System archive intends to preserve

information for access and use by a designated community

37

Data Collection● ship

● satellite

● moorings

● buoys, drifters

● glider

● research

institutes

OAIS - ISO 14721

System 1

Servers /

Services● Apache

● LAS

● THREDDS

● ERDDAP

● geoportal

● FTP

● ssh

Data

processingQA, filter,

add metadata,

versioning

internet

(TENET/SANReN)

Backup /

Failover

System 2

Happy Userspublic,

research

institutes,

universities,

government

National

repositorydata.gov.za,

SMS, SADCO,

SAEON, OCIMS

International

repositoryWOD, NOAA,

GOOS, BODC

Database

WAF

SQL

NetCDFOther formats

Catalog

Metadata

CF

ACDD

SANS 1878

(ISO 19115)

http://oceans.environment.gov.za

.../las

.../thredds

.../erddap

.../ftpConceptual

Outline

Archive management

M

I

M

S

38

• Stakeholders are identified and prioritized.

WHO ARE YOU ALL, AND HOW IMPORTANT ARE YOU?

• Their needs are well-defined and met by the product.

WHAT DO YOU NEED?

• The operational agency has formally accepted the responsibility for operations.

WE’LL DO IT!!!!

• It has the capacity, infrastructure, and a business plan.

WE KNOW HOW WE’RE GOING TO DO IT!!!

• Criteria for the service level are in place, and met or being remediated.

WE KNOW HOW OFTEN AND HOW RELIABLY WE NEED TO DO IT!!!

WHAT IS REQUIRED TO BE OPERATIONAL?

39

• The production facility is suitable.

WE KNOW WHERE WE’RE GOING TO DO IT!!

• Sufficient staff are in place to meet the defined production and support schedule.

WE KNOW WHO IS GOING TO DO IT!

• The code or product is mature: reviewed, documented, well-characterized, and widely

adopted or peer-reviewed.

WE (AND EVERYONE ELSE) CAN UNDERSTAND HOW IT’S DONE

• A code and/or product maintenance/upgrade strategy and plan is in place.

WE UNDERSTAND THE PRODUCT LIFECYCLE

WHAT IS REQUIRED TO BE OPERATIONAL?

40

• The operational agency has agreed in principle to produce the product or provide the service.

• The agency is sufficiently capacitated and has adequate infrastructure, or budget has been

identified to make them so.

• A clear plan, process and timeline for migrating from R2O has been defined and accepted by

both (R & O) teams and their management.

• A supporting budget for the transition has been identified.

• Project risks have been identified and mitigation strategies are in place.

• Major stakeholders have been identified.

• Stakeholder needs have been assessed and expressed as quantitative and qualitative criteria

for timeliness and accuracy (fitness criteria).

• The product is being evaluated with respect to the fitness criteria.

• The code and algorithms are mature and documentation exists or is being written.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BEIN TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS?

41

Delivering Services Enabling Governance OCIMS

Data ICT Core Analytics User Experience

Protection

Monitoring

Event

mapping

Analytics &

visualisation

Geo-Spatial

Processing Platform

42

OPERATIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS INFRASTRUCTURE

• Department of Environmental Affairs HPC?

• South African Weather Service HPC?

• SANSA high-volume EO data storage?

• SAEON data dissemination infrastructure

• DEA national Marine Information Management System and Oceans and Coasts Information Management System

43