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Ongoing and finalised COM studies on Adaptation to Climate Change. Balázs Horváth European Commission DG Environment 3rd EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Copenhagen, 30 June 2009. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Ongoing and finalised COM studies on Adaptation to Climate Change
Balázs Horváth
European Commission DG Environment
3rd EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Copenhagen, 30 June 2009
White Paper Pillar I: Strengthening the Knowledge Base – an essential step
forward Build on on-going research projects and studies
IPCC AR5 scenarios 7th FP projects National research projects, INTERREG etc.
Fill-in gaps with specific projects Vulnerability indicators:
Preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change vulnerability indicators at regional level
Guidelines/Toolbox for adaptation strategies Design of guidelines for the elaboration of Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Assessment of adaptation policies Implementation of Land-use modelling: adaptation-related scenarios Water and adaptation modelling
Objective: provide structure and contents for the EU Clearinghouse Contact point: [email protected]
Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators
The project ‘preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change vulnerability indicators at regional level’ aims to:
Collect the existing information on vulnerability indices Assess the feasibility and provide options for the design of vulnerability indicators,
that can be used to assess further EU-wide adaptation policy Provide a first version of one option for a set of indicators with available data Assess the options for the further use of this set of indicators for a number of EU
policy aims.
9 months contract (AEA, SEI, IVM, PIK), final report due in Sept 09
Workshop on 18/6 (Brussels), presentation and minutes available on http://www.ecologic-events.de/climate_adaptation/presentations.htm
Further input expected from 2-3 July expert workshop
Guidelines/Toolbox for adaptation strategies
The project “Design of guidelines for the elaboration of Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies” aims at:
An inventory of existing regional adaptation strategies (RAS) in the EU MS
A preliminary assessment of the support framework/tools available at EU and MS level with regard to adaptation to climate change
Guidelines on the process for the development of a regional adaptation strategy
9 months contract (Ecologic, AEA, Alterra, IVM), final report due in Sept 09
Workshop on 17/6 (Brussels), presentation and minutes available on http://www.ecologic-events.de/climate_adaptation/presentations.htm
Land-use modelling: adaptation-related scenarios On-going service contract (14 months, ending Feb 2010) with Alterra, geonext, Object
Vision, Bio IS Objectives:
Define an integrated land use modelling framework ”EU-ClueScanner”, Building on experiences with existing modelling systems (SENSOR, SEAMLESS,
EURURALIS, ATEAM, PRELUDE, LUMOCAP, etc. Spatial resolution: 1 km2, Spatial extent: EU27, Temporal extent: 30 years (2000-2030)
annual changes, Land use classes: 17 based on CLC2000 Improve Policy-Science interaction (model as a tool for assessment and communication)
10 illustrative reference and policy scenario 1 scenario (X 2 ref cases) looking at land-use implications expected from selected
adaptation policy measures restricted to water management and soil protection as EC-legislation is being prepared for these
themes other issues such as heat stress, agricultural crop choice could be assessed at a later stage implementation foreseen later this year
Interim workshop to present modelling framework and scenario design on 26 June, Brussels
Results to be presented at a workshop on 12/11/2009, Brussels
Water and adaptation modelling
Objective: assessment of both vulnerability to climate change impacts and
adaptation measures with a specific focus on water related impacts and measures,
provision of an integrated analytical platform at a detailed geographical level, giving the basis for the identifications of adaptation measures to be either promoted or prevented at EU level.
Open call for tender on-going ENV.D.2/SER/2009/0034:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/funding/calls_en.htm
Study on the Economics of climate change adaptationin EU coastal areas (2009)
• DG MARE commissioned a study which:
Assesses coastal protection policies and climate change adaptation plans and practices in EU coastal areas;
Compiles most recent information about the theoretical cost estimated by models;
Provides extensive empirical information about past, present and foreseen expenditures on coastal protection and adaptation by competent authorities;
Compares theoretical costs against real expenditures and identifies disparities amongst regions (on i.e. vulnerability and costs of adaptation), sources of uncertainty, etc
Analyses costs and benefits, use of public funds
The main climate change impacts relevant for coastal zones are flooding and erosion, saline intrusion and freshwater shortage, and the loss of eco-systems
To date, studies and reports focus primarily on Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Scientific literature estimates the annual adaptation cost to protect Europe’s coastal zones against SLR: $ 0.2 billion and € 5.4 billion (per year).Benefits of early adaptation are clear (PESETA Study).
Europe’s total coastal protection expenditure (1998-2015): € 0.88 billion / year
Close to 85% of total coastal protection expenditure is borne by 5 countries (IT, NL, DE, UK, ES)
More than 60% of the normal coastal protection expenditure is dedicated to the North Sea
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Normal expenditure (€ million)
The Study includes Analysis and detailed information per marine basin, including outermost regions, and per country.
More info: http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html
€ 2.7
€ 8.1
€ 127.5
€ 1.4
€ 10.5
€ 117.6€ 1
647
€ 316
€ 3 421
€ 206
€ 95
€ 1 712
€ 131 € 936€ 462
€ 89
€ 288
€ 15.4
€ 1.6
€ 18
€ 267
€ 353
4%
63%
32%
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Europe’s total expenditure € 10.47 billion
EU
National
Regional
Local/private€ 237Outermost regions
Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change
DG AGRI
Jan – Nov 2007
AEA Environment and Technology (UK) in partnership with Universidad Politecnica of Madrid (ES)
Scope Impacts, risks and opportunities in EU-27
Potential adaptation options to increase resilience
Assess policies that may present barrier to adaptation
Main conclusions
Boreal, Atlantic and Continental north zones: increased precipitation in winter, decreased in summer; risk of new pests and diseases
Alpine region: temperature increases, impacts on hydrological cycles
Mediterranean zone: reduced water availability, heat and drought stress, increased competition for water resources
Measures can be applied in farm level, because a lot of them are management-related (e.g. change crop rotation)
Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation
DG AGRI
Jan – Nov 2008
European Forest Institute (FI) in partnership with BOKU (AT), INRA, Bordeaux (FR) and AISF (IT)
Scope Impacts, adaptive capacity, risks and opportunities in EU-27
Potential adaptation actions to increase resilience
Ongoing and planned adaptation measures in MS
Main conclusions
Adaptive capacity is large in the Boreal and Temperate Oceanic regions, but limited in the Mediterranean region
Some measures are well established, but experience is lacking on how tree species respond to rapid changing
Vulnerability assessments are almost completely lacking at national level
There is a need for monitoring and further research
Contact: [email protected]
DG REGIO - Regional Challenges in the Perspective of 2020: Regional Disparities and Future Challenges Follow-up of the Regions 2020 report
http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/working/regions2020/index_en.htm
Context: "Regional Futures Initiative", a network of think tanks and experts looking at future of regional trends established by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the World Bank and DG REGIO
Objective: improve understanding of the role of key challenges such as globalisation, climate
change, demographic change and migration, energy and social polarisation, play in generating and reducing spatial disparities in the European Union and neighbourhood countries.
provide a basis for Regional Policy discussion and choices in the coming years.
5 thematic workshops (Climate Change 7 May 2009) On the basis of a consensus result of the workshop the paper will be
finalised and reach the status of a solid basis for the discussion about the future of Structural Policy.
Contact: [email protected]