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One or two things about Evidence-Based Management

Pitstop Evidence-Based HR, VOV lerend netwerk,Gent, 27 september 2012

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Evidence-Based Management?

VOV leden, n= 86

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Evidence-Based Practice

1991Medicine

1998Education

1999Social care, public policy

2000Nursing

2000Criminal justice

????Management?

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Definition

Evidence-based management means making decisions about the management of employees, teams or organizations through the conscientious, explicit and judicious use of four sources of information:

1. The best available scientific evidence

2. Organizational facts, metrics and characteristics

3. Stakeholders’ values and concerns

4. Practitioner expertise and judgment

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Four sources

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Four sources

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Trust me: 20 years of management experience!

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Bounded rationality

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Bounded rationality

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Seeing order in randomness Mental corner cutting Misinterpretation of incomplete data Halo effect False consensus effect Group think Self serving bias Sunk cost fallacy Cognitive dissonance reduction

Confirmation bias Authority bias Small numbers fallacy In-group bias Recall bias Anchoring bias Inaccurate covariation detection Distortions due to plausibility

Het feilbare brein

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if you’re hyperventilating breathe into a bag

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elderly people who have an irregular heartbeat are much more likely to die of

coronary disease

give them a drug that reduces the number of

irregular beats

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How 40,000 cardiologists can be wrong

In the early 1980s newly introduced anti-arrhythmic drugs were found to be highly successful at suppressing arrhythmias.

Not until a RCT was performed was it realized that, although these drugs suppressed arrhythmias, they actually increased mortality.

The CAST trial revealed Excess mortality of 56/1000.

By the time the results of this trial were published, at least 100,000 such patients had been taking these drugs.

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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment

Doctors and managers hold many erroneous beliefs,

not because they are ignorant or stupid, but because

they seem to be the most sensible conclusion

consistent with their own professional experience!

available evidence.

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Half of what you learn will be shown to be either dead wrong or out-of-date within 7 years of your graduation; the trouble is that nobody can tell you which half

Sackett: remember that your teachers are full of crap, just like your parents.

Problem II: false information

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1. Incompetent people benefit more from feedback than highly competent people.

2. Task conflict improves work group performance while relational conflict harms it.

3. Being intelligent is a disadvantage for performing low skilled jobs.

Evidence-based?

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Evidence-based?

Competentie management Excellente zorg Kwaliteits management Het nieuwe werken Kennis management Magnet, Investors in People Plain Tree, Healing Environment Balanced Score Card / INK Lean / Six Sigma / TOC

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Think critically about experience, question your assumptions, and challenge what you think you know.

Don’t be a parrot!

(Show me the evidence!)

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1. Formulate a focused question

2. Searching for the best available evidence

3. Critical appraisal

4. Turning evidence into practice

5. Monitor the outcome

5-step approach

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Step 3: Critical appraisal of studies

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Best available evidence?

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Research designs

What is the BEST car?

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Which design for which question?

Research designs

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Twee type vragen

Effect vs Non-effect

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Type vraag: effect

Werkt het?

Werkt het beter dan ....?

Heeft het een effect op ....?

Wat zijn de succesfactoren voor ....?

Wat is nodig om het te laten werken?

Effect

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Type: non-effect

Needs: Wat hebben mensen nodig, waar hebben ze

behoefte aan?

Attitude: Wat denken of vinden mensen van ...?

Experience: Wat zijn de ervaringen van mensen met ...?

Prevalence: Hoeveel mensen / organisaties ....?

Procedure: Hoe kunnen we .... implementeren?

Explanation: Waarom werkt het?

Economics: Hoeveel kost het (tijd en geld)?

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Explanation

Which design for which question?

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Best research design?

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Best available?

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Evidence is not the same as ‘proof’ or ‘hard facts’

Evidence can be

- so strong that no one doubts its correctness, or

- so weak that it is hardly convincing at all

What is evidence?

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The best available evidence =

Studies with the highest internal validity

Studies with the highest external validity

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internal validity = indicates to what extent the

results of the research may be biased and is thus a comment on the degree to which alternative explanations for the outcome found

are possible (confounding).

Internal validity

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Confounding is the idea that a 3rd variable can distort or confuse (or confound..) a relationship between two other variables. For instance, when factor X causes disease Y, that relationship could be confounded by factor C that is associated with both factor X and disease Y. C would be an alternative explanation for the relationship observed between X and Y.

Confounding

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What are the confounders?

1. Shoe size & quality of handwriting

2. Body length & body weight

3. Number of storks & birth rate

4. Smoking youngsters & better lung function

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?Successful companies

Charismatic leaders

Reverse causation

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Levels of internal validity

1. Were there enough subjects in the study?

2. Was a control group used?

3. Were the subjects randomly assigned?

4. Was a pretest used?

5. Was the study started prior to the intervention or event?

6. Was the outcome measured in an objective and reliable way?

6x yes = very high (A)

5x yes = high (A)

4-3x yes = limited (B)

2x yes = low (C)

1-0x yes = very low (D)

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Levels of internal validity

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Levels of internal validity

It is shown that …

It is likely that …

Experts are of the opinion that …

There are signs that …

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Best available evidence: external validity

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Ecological validity: Is your organization so different from those in the study that its results may be difficult to apply?

Population validity: Is your population so different from those in the study that its results may be difficult to apply?

External validity: generalizability

Always ask yourself to what extent the evidence is generalizable to your situation:

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Generalizability

Keep in mind:

What works in one narrowly defined setting

might not work in another,

but some psychological principles

are generalizable to all human beings.

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Step 4: Turning evidence into practice

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Feasible?

organizational facts and characteristics cultural aspects stakeholders’ values and concerns political aspects financial aspects /cost-effectiveness / ROI priorities change readiness / resistance to change implementation capacity timing

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Tot slot:

Focus on the decision making process! (not the outcome)