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One billion
Opportunities
for Africa Building Human Capital for
Inclusive Growth
Africa‘s metamorphosis…
Demographic explosion
Rapid economic growth
Technological revolution
Political transformation
Environmental challenges
Aid landscape
2
Demographic explosion..
3
A strikingly large youth bulge in Africa
Source: CIA World Fact-book 2009 http://www.prb.org/pdf11/2011population-data-sheet_eng.pdf
4
Youth bulge.. the continent‘s greatest asset, or
potential risk ?
1 billion people today,
2.3 billion by 2050
Africa is the..
Most populous
continent after Asia
Youngest region
in the world
..And will have the
largest workforce
by 2040 surpassing
China and India
Source : UNSTAT. World Population Prospects 2010.
-
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
19
80
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
5
203
0
203
5
204
0
20
45
205
0
Millio
n in
ha
bita
nts
Working age population (15-64) in the world
Africa
SE Asia
Europe
LAC
South America
North America
China
India
5
Rapid but non-inclusive growth
6 out of 10
fastest-growing
economies are
in SSA (Angola,
Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad,
Mozambique, Rwanda)
6 out of 10 most
unequal
countries are in
SSA (SA, CAR)
6
60% youth unemployment in Africa and many underemployed,
especially the most educated…
24 25
34
2
22
3
20
48
31
25
11
21
27
3
10
2
6
24
14
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Unemployment Rate %, total and youth
Unemployment, youth
total (% of total labor
force ages 15-24)
Unemployment, total (%
of total labor force)
Double Trouble
7
Technology wave
The total African mobile
subscriber base is roughly 281 million and expected to reach
561 million in 2012
Yet Africa lags behind in
connectivity and internet access …only 3 out of 1000 are internet
users in Sierra Leone …1 out of 1000
has a computer in Niger
8
Africa lagging behind in the broadband race
9
Political shifts…less conflict.. more demand for voice and accountability
10
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
Voice and
Accountability
Political Stability
Government
Effectiveness
Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law
Control of
Corruption
Governance Indicators (World Bank, 2010)
SSA
MENA
Tunis
11
Environmental changes..
Impact of drought, food shortages on
nutrition, particularly in the Horn of Africa
12
Changing aid landscape
Economic and financial crisis
Global fund, decrease in HIV/AIDS funding
New donors e.g., China investing in infrastructure
Higher levels of remittances
13
Why the Bank should invest in human
capital
Core mandate: Inclusive growth and
poverty reduction
Infrastructure – labor intensive, requiring
specialized skills
Governance – 40-60% domestic spending
goes to social sectors
Private sector – mismatch between skills
produced and quality of education and
labor market needs
HEST – too few students in science
14
Why a human capital development
strategy?
Rising youth population is Africa‘s greatest
asset…
…capturing the demographic dividend…
………promoting inclusive growth……
15
Africa on the demographic upswing
Source: D Bloom and D Canning, “Demographics and Development Policy”, Development Outreach, April 2011
16
A one time opportunity ...
Source : ILO, KILM 7.
Capturing the demographic dividend similar to East
Asian miracle and unlike Latin America
17
Capturing the demographic dividend
Skills for competitiveness and jobs …
Using new technologies to build a knowledge economy
Only an educated and healthy workforce can
be productive
Value for money, accountability and voice in
service delivery
Integrate private spending in policymaking
Addressing governance, voice and accountability issues
Social inclusion and cohesion
18
Skills for competitiveness
and jobs
What will the Bank support ?
Skills development to support job creation and
private and public sector investments in
Infrastructure and other economic sectors.
Investments in Education will focus on better
matching the supply and demand for skilled
workers to address youth unemployment in Africa.
(NEMA)
Strengthening Science and Technology including
research and innovation as part of PPP
Regional Integration through regional centers of
excellence and regional networks of knowledge
20
Moving Africa from Knowledge
consumers to Knowledge Producers…
• Large numbers of
youth are being
pushed through the
education system,
but quality of
education remains
low—especially in
math and science
• Number of students
in higher education
in Africa has tripled in
the last 10 years
• ....yet the best
university in Africa
ranks 324th globally
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1
Zimbabwe
CAR
Algeria
Cap Verde
Mali
Burkina Faso
Namibia
Niger
Ghana
Eritrea
Madagascar
Congo
Cote d'Ivoire
Ethiopia
Guinea
Burundi
Cameroon
Djibouti
Marocco
Too Few Students in Science: fields of Study for students
enrolled in Tertiary Education
Science Engineering Education Social science, business & law other
21
Quality issue?
Or Mismatch between
demand and
supply?
Education level 200
0
2009 or
LYA
%
change
Preschool Gross Enrolment rate (GER, %) 17.5 27.2 +55%
Primary Completion rate (%) 54.3 70.2 +29%
Lower secondary (GER, %) 42.3 56.4 +33%
Upper secondary (GER, %) 20.1 28.0 +40%
Technical and Vocational Education
N.b. of Students per 100,000
inhabitants
406.
8 450.0 +11%
Parity Index (general secondary = 100) 10.8 8.8 -18%
Higher education
N.b. of Students per 100,000
inhabitants
509.
2 793.3 +56%
The parity index (in %) represents the number of enrolled students in TVET per 100 students in general secondary education. Source AfDB data 2011
Access to Education improving...
but skills do not match labor market needs
22
The most educated are more likely to be
unemployed or underemployed
Between 1999 and 2009, the number of university graduates in Sub-
Saharan Africa more than tripled, rising from 1.6 mio. to 4.9 mio.
Source: Mingat (2006) African Development Bank, 2011
Unemployment rate among individuals aged 25-34
23
Education not relevant to the needs of
the job market…
In Tunisia, almost 30% of higher education graduates in 2004 were
still unemployed 3 years after graduation(twice the national
average);
Although increasing, the employment rate of vocational training
schools leavers was only 61% in Morocco in 2008, nine months after
graduation;
In Gabon in 2010, almost 90% of unemployed youths (16-24 years
old) would have preferred to obtain a job in the modern sector; less
than 2% were ready to engage in self-employment;
In Tanzania, Vocational Education capacity is far from meeting
current needs. The current annual flow of students into vocational
education is less than five percent of the potential demand for VET
skills.
24
New Model for Higher Education in Africa
(NEMA)
• ICT-based
• Linkages with the labor market
• PPPs
• Develop critical thinking
• Participatory
• Evidence-based
• The African Virtual University has established
the largest network of
Open Distance and
eLearning institutions in
over 30 Sub Saharan
African countries and won
the 2011 ‗Education-
Portal.com‘ prize.
• The regional center of
excellence Carnegie
Mellon in Rwanda will be
the first highly ranked
American university to
operate a fully-fledged
campus in Africa
25
Value for money,
accountability and voice
in service delivery
What will the Bank support ?
Better governance for results and
improved value for money
Voice and Accountability with focus on
ICT investments
Private sector engagement in service
delivery
27
Building accountability towards citizens
Voice Compact
Client‘s Power
28
Fast track bank task force for private sector
engagement in HD
Address shortage teachers and health
workers…invest in Higher education to improve
both supply and quality
Governance …On average 40-60% of government expenditure in Africa allocated to social spending
Absenteeism, shortages of books, drugs
Silent corruption
Improve national procurement systems
Transparent financial management
Results based financing
Voice in service delivery
Value for money, accountability and
voice in service delivery
29
Value for Money, Accountability and Voice in
service Delivery
30
Creating participatory, accountable, responsive and
inclusive governance systems in social service sectors in
Africa
Increased awareness of accountability in
the conduct of public affairs
Increase decentralization and
participatory approach to the planning
and budgetary process
Increased citizens participation in
measuring results and effectiveness of
service delivery
31
Social Inclusion and
Cohesion
Safety nets
Conditional Cash Transfers
Health insurance
Productive Safety nets
Microfinance
Social Businesses
Nutrition: food security, climate change
and livelihoods particularly in the Horn of
Africa
What will the Bank support ?
33
Implementation
Instruments
PBOs to support systemic policy reforms for inclusive growth
Specific investments operations for institutional strengthening and innovations
Partnerships
ESWs
Impact Evaluation
35
Institutional Reform
Skills mix towards realization of pillars
Cross-departmental ESWs and operations
Country policy dialogue as part of
decentralization rather than project focus
HCD assessment as part of CSPs
36
Implementation example 1:
infrastructure
Operationalizing HCD in Infrastructure
All projects / programs in Infrastructure to
have a broader, deeper Capacity Building
components for Human Capital
development.
Increased collaboration between
Infrastructure and HS Department in the
conception, design and implementation of
projects
Training of Task Managers in mainstreaming
HCD in projects or as stand alone capacity.
38
Implementing HCD in Water and
Sanitation
OWAS & AWF projects designs use labour
intensive and simple technologies, where
possible, to create jobs for locals.
OWAS operations has a special focus on
sanitation to address health and nutrition
challenges.
OWAS & AWF operations are now taking an
integrated approach to respond to social,
economic & environmental needs.
39
Implementation example
2: skills for job creation
Background paper for the African Economic
Outlook ―Promoting Youth Employment‖
OSHD and EDRE jointly prepared a background
paper for the AEO
Purpose: to improve our understanding of youth
unemployment in Africa
Original contribution: analysis of 16 African
household and labour force surveys
Team led by 1 consultant and 5 research assistants
Also resulted in paper submitted to the C10
Ministerial Meeting 41
Implementation example 3:
Impact evaluation program
Impact Evaluation Initiative
Each new OSHD project to include an impact evaluation component
Purpose: to help RMCs generate evidence on the
impact of policies they implement and learn from other countries‘ experience to ensure evidence-
based policies
Close collaboration between OSHD and EDRE, with the latter providing technical support and
advice
So far: projects in Ghana, Kenya, Malawi and
Kenya 43
Conclusion
• A strategy to help Africa leapfrog its economic
and socio-economic development
• High return if timely investments is made on
• Using new technologies to build a knowledge
economy
• Mechanisms for value for money and accountability
• Inclusion
• Need to integrate private spending in
policymaking
• Importance for external aid to be catalytic: need to focus on results and efficiency gains
Consultations
o E-consultations
o Face to face multi stakeholder
consultations with RMCs, donors, private
sector, academia planned (March-May)
o June – Revised strategy submitted to
Board
“globalization and the information technology
revolution are creating a hyper connected
world. A world in which education, innovation
and talent will be rewarded more than ever.
A world in which there will be no more
"developed" and "developing countries," but
only HIEs (high-imagination-enabling countries)
and LIEs (low-imagination-enabling countries)”
Thomas Friedman
A changing Africa in a
changing world…