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On the Economic Role On the Economic Role of Social Indicatorsof Social Indicators
in Urban and Regional Planningin Urban and Regional Planning
byHelmut Maier
Leontief-Institute for Economic AnalysisBerlin / Germany
Paper presented on occasion of theSCORUS conference
14-16 October 2008 Shanghai / China
Subject, Aim, and Approach
• Aim Aim of this paper is to describe the present status of of this paper is to describe the present status of using social indicators within urban and regional using social indicators within urban and regional planning and decision procedures of public authorities planning and decision procedures of public authorities in Germany.in Germany.
• The methodological The methodological approachapproach is based empirically: is based empirically: Exemplarily it is focused an actual (but finished) land Exemplarily it is focused an actual (but finished) land use planning procedure including an environmental use planning procedure including an environmental risk assessment. Within this procedure the role of risk assessment. Within this procedure the role of social indicators is focused.social indicators is focused.
• Subject Subject of this empiric example is the public planning of this empiric example is the public planning procedure for the location of the future metropolitan procedure for the location of the future metropolitan airport “Berlin Brandenburg International” (BBI).airport “Berlin Brandenburg International” (BBI).
Remarks on Social Indicators
• Definition of a social indicatorDefinition of a social indicator: To understand these : To understand these explanations, it is sufficient to know that a social indicator explanations, it is sufficient to know that a social indicator describes social characteristic of a single person, of groups, or of describes social characteristic of a single person, of groups, or of the entire society.the entire society.
• In many cases a social indicator will not be measured In many cases a social indicator will not be measured quantitatively but solely verbal.quantitatively but solely verbal.
• In a particular case an economic indicator may be a social In a particular case an economic indicator may be a social indicator as well, an example is the rate of joblessness. Equally, indicator as well, an example is the rate of joblessness. Equally, an indicator of land use planning may be a social indicator, too; an indicator of land use planning may be a social indicator, too; an example is the fraction of area used for housing.an example is the fraction of area used for housing.
• Conclusion: Transitions to pure economic, geographic, and other Conclusion: Transitions to pure economic, geographic, and other indicators are floating and subjective defined, see also Werner indicators are floating and subjective defined, see also Werner (1975).(1975).
• Referring to SCORUS conference in 2006 in Wroclaw/Poland, it Referring to SCORUS conference in 2006 in Wroclaw/Poland, it is noted that social indicators (besides biometric indicators) are is noted that social indicators (besides biometric indicators) are even identified as the ultimate economic indicators, Maier (2006)even identified as the ultimate economic indicators, Maier (2006)
Bibliography
• Werner, R. (1975): Sozialindikatoren und politische Planung, Einführung Werner, R. (1975): Sozialindikatoren und politische Planung, Einführung in Anwendungen der Makrosoziologie. in Anwendungen der Makrosoziologie.
• Ministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Raumordnung des Landes Ministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Raumordnung des Landes Brandenburg (1994): Landesplanerische Beurteilung, Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg (1994): Landesplanerische Beurteilung, Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg International vom 16. Nov. 1994.Brandenburg International vom 16. Nov. 1994.
• Maier, H. (1996): Social Indicators in Urban and Regional Planning 1970 Maier, H. (1996): Social Indicators in Urban and Regional Planning 1970 and 1996, Where is the Progress? Paper presented to the 20th Conference and 1996, Where is the Progress? Paper presented to the 20th Conference on Regional and Urban Statistics (SCORUS), October 14-17, 1996, Madrid/ on Regional and Urban Statistics (SCORUS), October 14-17, 1996, Madrid/ Spain.Spain.
• Maier, H. (1998): Der Einfluß von Sozialindikatoren bei der Umwelt-Maier, H. (1998): Der Einfluß von Sozialindikatoren bei der Umwelt-verträglichkeitsprüfung, dargestellt am Beispiel der Standortplanung für verträglichkeitsprüfung, dargestellt am Beispiel der Standortplanung für den Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg International, ISSN 1428-7110den Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg International, ISSN 1428-7110 ..
• Maier, H. (2006): New indicators to measure economic effciency, wealth Maier, H. (2006): New indicators to measure economic effciency, wealth and poverty on basis of Natural Economics. Paper presented to SCORUS and poverty on basis of Natural Economics. Paper presented to SCORUS conference August/September 2006 in Wroclaw/Poland, in: Werkstatthefte conference August/September 2006 in Wroclaw/Poland, in: Werkstatthefte aus Statistik und Ökonometrie, ISSN 1439-3956aus Statistik und Ökonometrie, ISSN 1439-3956 ..
• Der Tagesspiegel, daily newspaper of Berlin, articles of different issues.Der Tagesspiegel, daily newspaper of Berlin, articles of different issues.
Basic Hypothesis
• As for urban and regional planning procedures social As for urban and regional planning procedures social indicators thoroughly are used within decision-indicators thoroughly are used within decision-making.making.
• But they play an economic role, too. They can be used But they play an economic role, too. They can be used and are used to hide different economic and financial and are used to hide different economic and financial interests within public decision-making.interests within public decision-making.
• For clarification: Social indicators can be used to For clarification: Social indicators can be used to achieve a majority for a certain decision which will not achieve a majority for a certain decision which will not hold if the hidden economic and financial aspects and hold if the hidden economic and financial aspects and interest are included into decision-making.interest are included into decision-making.
• In principle social indicators are inferior to economic In principle social indicators are inferior to economic and financial indicators (and restrictions).and financial indicators (and restrictions).
Federal Republic of Germany prefers a location close to Berlin
to limit financial subsidies for public traffic lines.
Metropolis Berlinwould agree to a more costly
location far from Berlin in caseof unification with Brandenburg, only.
Rural province Brandenburguses social indicators within the
land use procedure to promote the locationof airport BBI far away from Berlin,
and hideseconomic and financial benefit
from devolopment by this decision.
Empiric Substantiation:Airport Berlin Brandenburg International
Brandenburg2.7 m residents
Berlin3.3 m residents
Baltic Sea
Poland
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
Czech Republic
Germany
Saxony
Saxony-Anhalt
Thuringia
Lower Saxony
Bavaria
Schönefeld-Südnot compatible
Sperenbergcompatible
Jüterbog-Ostcompatible
Airport Berlin Brandenburg InternationalLocations evaluated by the land use procedure
Potsdam
Berlin
Substantiation Remarks on Airport BBI
• First plans for a big international airport for metropolis Berlin and province First plans for a big international airport for metropolis Berlin and province Brandenburg arose shortly after fall of Berlin wall in 1989.Brandenburg arose shortly after fall of Berlin wall in 1989.
• In May 1991 a holding BBI was established with shareholders Federal In May 1991 a holding BBI was established with shareholders Federal Republic of Germany (FRG, 26%), Brandenburg (37,4%), and Berlin Republic of Germany (FRG, 26%), Brandenburg (37,4%), and Berlin (37,5%).(37,5%).
• In June 1993 the supervisory board of the holding BBI decided to apply for In June 1993 the supervisory board of the holding BBI decided to apply for a comparable land use planning procedure for the locations Jüterbog-Ost, a comparable land use planning procedure for the locations Jüterbog-Ost, Schönefeld-Süd, and Sperenberg.Schönefeld-Süd, and Sperenberg.
• In May 1994 the comparable land use planning procedure including an In May 1994 the comparable land use planning procedure including an environmental risk assessment starts under authority of Brandenburg (and environmental risk assessment starts under authority of Brandenburg (and not of Berlin) because the competing locations are situated on the not of Berlin) because the competing locations are situated on the sovereign territory of Brandenburg. This procedure is a forerunner of the sovereign territory of Brandenburg. This procedure is a forerunner of the ultimate authorisation procedure.ultimate authorisation procedure.
• At 16 November 1994 the result of this procedure was reported to public, At 16 November 1994 the result of this procedure was reported to public, mainly based on social indicators: The locations Sperenberg and Jüterbog-mainly based on social indicators: The locations Sperenberg and Jüterbog-Ost are compatible, and Schönefeld-Süd is not compatible (viewing land Ost are compatible, and Schönefeld-Süd is not compatible (viewing land use plans, aims and interests of Brandenburg).use plans, aims and interests of Brandenburg).
Substantiation Remarks on Airport BBI
• However, the comparable evaluation of province Brandenburg from However, the comparable evaluation of province Brandenburg from November 1994 didn’t lead to an ultimate decision of the airport holding November 1994 didn’t lead to an ultimate decision of the airport holding BBI. BBI.
• The location Schönefeld-Süd came back mainly due to two developments:The location Schönefeld-Süd came back mainly due to two developments:• A delay of the ultimate decision by the shareholders Berlin (37,5%) and FRG A delay of the ultimate decision by the shareholders Berlin (37,5%) and FRG
(26%) within the holding BBI which were not convinced by this decision and (26%) within the holding BBI which were not convinced by this decision and listed additional cost not included in this land use procedure.listed additional cost not included in this land use procedure.
• A negative vote in May 1996 of Brandenburg people in a public poll against A negative vote in May 1996 of Brandenburg people in a public poll against a contract of Berlin and Brandenburg governments to unify both provinces.a contract of Berlin and Brandenburg governments to unify both provinces.
• End of May 1996 the three shareholders Berlin, Brandenburg, and FRG End of May 1996 the three shareholders Berlin, Brandenburg, and FRG agreed to adapt the existing airport Schönefeld to the requirements of the agreed to adapt the existing airport Schönefeld to the requirements of the planned airport BBI in 2010, with a capacity of 20 million passengers poer planned airport BBI in 2010, with a capacity of 20 million passengers poer year. This airport should replace the existing airports in Tempelhof and Tegel year. This airport should replace the existing airports in Tempelhof and Tegel of Berlin.of Berlin.
• Future conflicts arose which are not focused. In February 2007 the higher Future conflicts arose which are not focused. In February 2007 the higher administrative court of Brandenburg and Berlin rejected a claim of airlines administrative court of Brandenburg and Berlin rejected a claim of airlines against the close-down of airport Tegel in 2008, and a petition for a against the close-down of airport Tegel in 2008, and a petition for a referendum in Berlin aiming the future use of airport Tempelhof didn’t reach referendum in Berlin aiming the future use of airport Tempelhof didn’t reach the required quorum.the required quorum.
Substantiation Remarks on Used Indicators
• Overall 60 indicators were extracted from the report Overall 60 indicators were extracted from the report from 16 Nov. 1994 used for decision-making.from 16 Nov. 1994 used for decision-making.
• 34 of 60 refer to the properly land use procedure, 34 of 60 refer to the properly land use procedure, denoted S1 to S34, and 26 refer to the estimation of denoted S1 to S34, and 26 refer to the estimation of environmental risk assessment, denoted E1 to E26.environmental risk assessment, denoted E1 to E26.
• For the list of all indicators, see Maier (1998).For the list of all indicators, see Maier (1998).• Applying the rough definition for a social indicator, Applying the rough definition for a social indicator,
relatively unproblematic 17 social indicators can be relatively unproblematic 17 social indicators can be extracted. Some more might be added.extracted. Some more might be added.
• In a scenario we focus the estimated characteristics In a scenario we focus the estimated characteristics for these social indicators in year 2010.for these social indicators in year 2010.
E1 Number residents concerned by day by aircraft noise with permanent level over 57 decibels
E2 Number of residents concerned by night by aircraft noise with top level over 70 decibels
E3 Number of residents concerned by day by street noise with permanent level over 59 decibels
E4 Number of residents concerned by night by street noise with top level over 49 decibels
E5 Number residents concerned by day by railway noise with permanent level over 59 decibels E6 Number of residents concerned by night by railway noise with top level over 49 decibels
E7 Number of residents concerned by carbon black
E8 Assumed number of residents concerned by a catastrophe in security zone two
S12 Elongation of travel time of car driver to airport BBI (after close-down of airports in Berlin- Tegel, Berlin-Tempelhof, and the old one in Schönefeld) in minutes
S13 Travel time by express from station Lehrter Stadtbahnhof in Berlin to airport BBI in minutes
S14 Travel time by express from station Potsdam to airport BBI in minutes
S23 Concerned social institutions (kindergartens, senior housing, hospitals, schools)
S25 Noise burden of housing and settlement structure
S26 Number of residents to be resettled
S31 Area of security zone in square kilometres
S32 Fraction of settlement area within the security zone
S33 Important firms within the security zone
Social Indicators
Substantiation Remarks on Involved Social Indicators
• In a scenario In a scenario we focus we focus estimated estimated characteristics characteristics for these 17 for these 17 indicators in indicators in year 2010,year 2010,
for the three for the three competing competing locationslocations
•
Substantiation Overall Result Based on Used Indicators
• The location The location Schönefeld-SüdSchönefeld-Süd impairs population and impairs population and settlement in a region with high density of population settlement in a region with high density of population considerably stronger. Thus it avoids quite a few considerably stronger. Thus it avoids quite a few costly and economic programs and activities which costly and economic programs and activities which impair environment.impair environment.
• The location The location SperenbergSperenberg impairs environment in a impairs environment in a region with low density of population. To balance the region with low density of population. To balance the disadvantage of the considerable longer distance from disadvantage of the considerable longer distance from Berlin it needs and includes many costly programs to Berlin it needs and includes many costly programs to improve the infrastructure.improve the infrastructure.
• The location Jüterbog-Ost shows similar The location Jüterbog-Ost shows similar characteristics like location Sperenbergcharacteristics like location Sperenberg (we pass it)(we pass it)
Substantiation Details for Location Schönefeld
• - Highest impair of population by noise, E1 to E8,- Highest impair of population by noise, E1 to E8,• - Strongest impair of social institutions, S23,- Strongest impair of social institutions, S23,• - Highest impair in case of a catastrophe, S32 and S33,- Highest impair in case of a catastrophe, S32 and S33,• - - Highest impair of cultural monuments, E26,Highest impair of cultural monuments, E26,• - - Not compatible with the overall concept of land use of province Not compatible with the overall concept of land use of province Brandenburg, S1,Brandenburg, S1,• - - Least support of the overall concept of decentralized concentration Least support of the overall concept of decentralized concentration
of of province Brandenburg, S2,province Brandenburg, S2,• - - Least impair of fauna and flora, E9 to E13,Least impair of fauna and flora, E9 to E13,• - - Least impair of soil and ground, E14 to E16,Least impair of soil and ground, E14 to E16,• - - Least impair of air, E20 to E22Least impair of air, E20 to E22,,• - - Least impair of climate, E23 to E24,Least impair of climate, E23 to E24,• - - Least impair of landscape, E25,Least impair of landscape, E25,• - - No problems with former military areas, S24,No problems with former military areas, S24,• - - Highest values for growth of population, S3 to S5,Highest values for growth of population, S3 to S5,• - - Least expenses for traffic infrastructureLeast expenses for traffic infrastructure, S13 to , S13 to S16, and S18 to S21.S16, and S18 to S21.
White: socialYellow: may be social Red: non-social
Substantiation Details for Location Sperenberg
• - Least or little impair of population by noise, E1 to E8,- Least or little impair of population by noise, E1 to E8,• - No impair of social institutions, S23,- No impair of social institutions, S23,• - Limited impair of development of settlement and housing, S25, S26,- Limited impair of development of settlement and housing, S25, S26,• - - Compatible with the overall concept of land use of province Compatible with the overall concept of land use of province Brandenburg, S1,Brandenburg, S1,• - - High support of the overall concept of decentralized concentration of High support of the overall concept of decentralized concentration of province Brandenburg, S2,province Brandenburg, S2,• - - Highest or high impair of fauna and flora, E9 to E13,Highest or high impair of fauna and flora, E9 to E13,• - Highest impair of soil, E14 to E16,- Highest impair of soil, E14 to E16,• - Strong impair of water balance, E17 to E19,- Strong impair of water balance, E17 to E19,• - Strongest impair of housing and settlement structure, E25,- Strongest impair of housing and settlement structure, E25,• - - Biggest or big problems with conversation of former military areas, Biggest or big problems with conversation of former military areas,
S24,S24,• - - High growth of population, S3 to S5,High growth of population, S3 to S5,• - - Highest or high number of newly created working places, S6 to S11,Highest or high number of newly created working places, S6 to S11,• - - Highest or high need of expenses for traffic infrastructureHighest or high need of expenses for traffic infrastructure, S13 to , S13 to S16,S16, and S18 to S21and S18 to S21..
White: socialYellow: may be social Red: non-social
Substantiation Conclusion from the Detailed Evaluation
• The expert opinion of Brandenburg’s ministry from The expert opinion of Brandenburg’s ministry from November 1994 weights and evaluates the overall November 1994 weights and evaluates the overall concepts of land use and decentralized concentration concepts of land use and decentralized concentration of province Brandenburg very strong. of province Brandenburg very strong.
• Moreover it weights and evaluates impair of Moreover it weights and evaluates impair of population (of Berlin) measured by social indicators population (of Berlin) measured by social indicators stronger than the additional burden of environment stronger than the additional burden of environment and additional expenses for traffic infrastructure in and additional expenses for traffic infrastructure in Brandenburg. Brandenburg.
• Hence it concludes the locations Sperenberg and Hence it concludes the locations Sperenberg and Jüterbog-Ost are compatible with the requirements of Jüterbog-Ost are compatible with the requirements of land use planning and environment, and the location land use planning and environment, and the location Schönefeld-Süd is not compatible.Schönefeld-Süd is not compatible.
Substantiation Conclusion from the detailed evaluation
• It substantiates the necessity to improve the infrastructure and It substantiates the necessity to improve the infrastructure and the economic development of the mostly rural province the economic development of the mostly rural province Brandenburg – using social indicators. Brandenburg – using social indicators.
• It hides expenses for costly additional programmes to convert It hides expenses for costly additional programmes to convert military areas (of former Russian troops) at locations military areas (of former Russian troops) at locations Sperenberg and Jüterbog-Ost (indicator S24), as well as it Sperenberg and Jüterbog-Ost (indicator S24), as well as it hides additional and high expenses for the extension of traffic hides additional and high expenses for the extension of traffic infrastructure to a great extent will fall to the shareholder FRG infrastructure to a great extent will fall to the shareholder FRG (S18-S21). (S18-S21).
• Hence the high weighting and evaluation of social indicators Hence the high weighting and evaluation of social indicators could be and was used as an excuse to hide additional cost for could be and was used as an excuse to hide additional cost for the locations Sperenberg and Jüterbog-Ost which bring the locations Sperenberg and Jüterbog-Ost which bring economic benefit primary for Brandenburg.economic benefit primary for Brandenburg.
• As the shareholders Berlin (34,5%) and FRG (26%) of holding As the shareholders Berlin (34,5%) and FRG (26%) of holding BBI finally could escape from this evaluation, finally, BBI finally could escape from this evaluation, finally, arguments based on social indicators are inferior.arguments based on social indicators are inferior.
Federal Republic of Germany prefers a location close to Berlin
to limit financial subsidies for public traffic lines.
Metropolis Berlinwould agree to a more costly
location far from Berlin in caseof unification with Brandenburg, only.
Rural province Brandenburguses social indicators within the
land use procedure to promote the locationof airport BBI far away from Berlin,
and hideseconomic and financial benefit
from devolopment by this decision.
Empiric Substantiation:Airport Berlin Brandenburg International
