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On-Bat Project Micro SOFC for portable application WP 5 Project Management TeECon Consulting Dr. Hans-Walter Praas Radebeul, Germany Nov. 17 th , 2005. Outline. Background Field of interest Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project Assessment of application entrance strategy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
On-Bat ProjectMicro SOFC for portable application
WP 5
Project Management
TeECon ConsultingDr. Hans-Walter Praas
Radebeul, Germany Nov. 17th, 2005
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Outline
• Background
• Field of interest
• Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project
• Assessment of application entrance strategy
• Industrial partner evaluation process
• Application and energy source roadmap
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Background
• I: Technology has been developed, but still breakthrough waited– Japanese Toshiba, NEC, Hitachi, Fujitsu and Casio take lead (wow, they are the
losers in secondary battery…does it happen by accident?), the first product will be launched soon in 05CY (but they said “07CY would be the target year”…)
– Japanese NTT and KDDI expect FC can be “new power device” for 3.5/4G– Sad news is the stopping of Nokia’s FC development
• II: What is the killer application?– Cellular phone with TV tuner and HDD REC/PLAY– NBPC which runs 10-100 hours– Electric motor bike for ecology– It seems that co-generation system for house is more promising in Japan
• III: Conclusion: 1st gen FC will not compete with secondary battery– FC is charger as accessory, still equipment needs internal LIB/Laminate– If users accept such a device, which can be the next step for 2nd gen FC– If FC charger performs good, which can be the driving force to expand portable
equipment market and secondary battery industry would be also happy
– If IIT is consulting someone, we recommend to develop 2 cells 18650 charger with built-in AC-charger for power consuming cellular
Positive impact on rechargeable battery business
Source: Takeshita April 2005
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Field of Interest
Micro SOFC for portable application – a revolution of energy, when, what ….
Is the time right, what are the limits and show stoppers….
Rugged Computer
Consumer NotebooksProfessional Video
Soldier Power
Mobile phones / PDA / MDA
SOFC
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Evaluation process for ONE – BAT project
During the project periode the main task and validation belongs to an PROVE of CONCEPT.
Targed varification
Process varification
Application varification
Industrial partner
selection
The project validation (quarterly based) covers always a technical assessment, followed by timing, the competitions (on battery and FC) and potential application partners.
3m 4 – 8 m 6 – 10m 8 – 12m
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
LiB/LiP total Market volume = 1.25 Billion units in 2003
Position Company Volume (M Cells) 1 Sanyo 350 2 Sony 250 3 BYD (China) 125 4 MBI (Matsushita) 100 5 SDI ( Samsung) 75 6 LG 32 7 GSMT (Sanyo) 30 8 ATB (Toshiba) ~20
8 companies represent ~ 80% LiB/LiP marketshare
Assessment of application entrance strategy
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Market Overview: Portable Device Drivers
– Mobility is rapidly increasing (Laptop, Cellphone, PDA, MP3...)
– Product life cycle of mobile devices is shortening
– Run time of mobile devices and number of features is increasing
• Power source (Battery) capacity must increase• Application power consumption must decrease
– Different technical requirements depending on application (speciality
markets)
Assessment of application entrance strategy
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Energy density (volume, weight)
Power density (volume, weight)
Device design (form factor)
Environmental conditions (temperature)
Safety (UL)
Market Overview: Battery Drivers
Assessment of application entrance strategy
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Industry Value Chain AnalysisIndustry Value Chain Analysis
Battery Manufacturer
Battery Manufacturer
Partner
Pack AssemblerPack Assembler
PackAssembler
PackAssembler
OEMOEM
RepresentativeDistributor
RepresentativeDistributor
SmallOEMSmallOEM
End User End User
ODM
ODM
Distributor
Distributor
End User End User
Assessment of application entrance strategy
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Main applications Battery technology share, 2001, %
Power tools
Camcorder
Source: Avicenne, Arthur D. Little
Growth trendCAGR 2004 - 2008
Pricetrend
Li-ion5248
Battery technology share,
2006, %
NiMH
LaptopLaptop
PDAPDA
DigitalDigitalcameracamera
e-bike
Li-ion81
19NiMH
26%
20% NiCd5937NiMH
Li-ion
5929 NiMH
4Li-ion
NiCd
12
2%
Li-ion89
6NiMH
Li-ion88
9NiMH
NiCd5245
NiMH
Li-ion83
15NiMH
4
Li-ion
NiCd2
5Li-p 3Li-p
NiCd81
19NiMH
NiCd68
32NiMH0
18%
Market trends in portable application
Li-technology will dominate high end applications with Li-polymer substantially growing its share…
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Li-technology will dominate high end applications with Li-polymer substantially growing its share…
Main applications Battery technology share, 2001, %
CellphoneCellphone
Security
Source: Avicenne, Arthur D. Little
Growth trendCAGR 2004 - 2008
Pricetrend
NiCd5743
Battery technology share,
2006, %
NiMH
Household
RC ModelsRC Models
Cordlessphone NiCd74
26NiMH5446 NiMHNiCd-3%
-6%
NiCd100-7%
5%
0NiCd
6040
NiMH
NiCd77
23NiMH
74
26
NiMH
NiCd
NiCd91
9NiMH
Li-ion6528NiMH
Li-ion65
13NiMH9
Li-p
22Li-p
Market trends in portable application
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
BatteriesChargers
SafetyElectronics
PackAssembly
Integrated
EnergySolutions
Sustaining a profitable Sustaining a profitable business will require playing a business will require playing a
new game new game
Assessment of application entrance strategy
System concept for Batteries
SOFCBattery
Controlelectronics
PackAssembly
Integrated
EnergySolutions
System concept for SOFC
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Assessment of application entrance strategy
High value, low volume market creates acceptence and confidence
Full access to key
customers and
existing markets
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Industrial partner evaluation process
Independed of the energy system, large OEM main market requires reliable and very cost optimized energy source products.
medium value
low value
high value
medium value
Standard Product Customized Product
Spot Market
Packer
Handy
DSCPDA
Medical
Military
Health care
Sp
ecia
lity
M
ark
ets
Volu
me
Mark
ets
•Market entrance strategy depends of achievements during the first phase. Best approach is always in Quadrant I.
Laptop
Scanner
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
MA
SS
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N
Planning &Design
PilotRamp-up
production
Preparation
Commit to the plan:Accept plan
Agreement on timingAgreement on costsAgreement on CAPEX
Start deliveryto customers
Customer approvalQA & Production
agrees to deliver
Commit to go for the project:
Team leaderTarget dates
Design and samples
BSR :Market infocompetitorsTarget BOMResourcesCost R&DCost factory
Detailed planProduct specsand architecturePrototypesR&D resourcesR&D costsIndustrial scenarioInd. investmentsInd. resourcesTarget SMP/TR
Design/simulationFirst samplesMechanical samplesW/S samplesE/S samplesEquipment defin.Equipment install.
Definitive samples on factory lineProcess capabilityIndustrial infrastr.
Production running inCheck manuf. performanceCheck costsCustomer feedbackImprovements
QA & Production accepts design
Design/processes frozen
Yield on targetIndustr. set-up
completeProduction ownership
ProjectLaunch
PL
TransferRelease
TR
PlanApproval
PA
EngineeringSample
Approval
E/S A
StartPre Production
SMP
Industrial partner evaluation process
Industrial partner after prove of Concept
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Industrial partner evaluation process
Application assessment spread sheet (example for Li-Ion)
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Energy source roadmap
Large OEM Li-Ion manufacturer entering various applications
Source: LG –chem Roadmap portable batteries
SamllSize
Battery
LargeSize
Battery
’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
24V24V
Explore
E-bikeE-bike
EV EV
1st Gen. LB1st Gen. LB2nd Gen. LB2nd Gen. LB
High-Voltage : 5VHigh-Voltage : 5V
Fuel Cell, Super Capacitor,Solar Cell,etcFuel Cell, Super Capacitor,Solar Cell,etc
42V/HEV42V/HEV300V/
EV 300V/
EV System (Load leveling,etc)System (Load leveling,etc)
For Power toolFor Power tool LiPB for Note-PC LiPB for Note-PC
Non-flammable CellNon-flammable Cell
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
• The future will see increased mobility due to a wider range of utility of portable power sources• This will create the opportunity for new applications of portable power technology
Energy Requirement Wh/day0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Primary Batteries
Rechargeable Batteries
Communication
Sensing
Household Appliances
Free Energy
Micro ICE
Fuel Cells
New Applications
Energy source roadmap
TeECon
Technology Engineering Consulting
Confidential WP5_TeECon_17.11.05.ppt
Contact
TeECon ConsultingAm Gymnasium 4
01445 Radebeul
Germany
+49 – (0) 351 – 83 38 47 3
+49 – (0) 351 – 83 38 47 4 (Fax)
+49 – (0) 172 – 37 37 02 2 (Mobil)