Oil product demand Ladislas Paszkiewicz

SVP Strategy & Climate

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Oil demand dominated by transport and petrochemicalsEmerging markets underpinning rising demand

26%

18%

5%6%1%

11%

6%

8%

7%

12%

2015 world oil demand by use

Petrochemicals

Industry

Light dutyvehicle

Heavy dutyvehicle

AviationMarine

Other uses, includingrefinery consumption

Transport

Othertransport

Buildings

92.5 Mb/d

1

Power gen.

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Oil demand since 2000Growth dominated by transportation

Rapid non-OECD economic development

Clear elasticity of oil demand to price: acceleration since 2014 after oil price drop

Growth concentrated in transportation, but

also petrochemical feedstock and industry

90

2000 2007 2014 2017

World oil demand by sectorMb/d

2

+0.8%per year+1.6%

per year

+1.7%per year

Buildings

Petrochemicals

Transportation

Industry, agriculture & non-energy

Power gen

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25

50

2015 2040

More driving boosts passenger transport fuel demandEfficiency improvements mitigate increased driving

Demand for passenger transport:

High growth in emerging countries

• 2000-15 average: +3.6%/y km driven

• Assumption: km driven to grow 3.5%/y

• 2 & 3 wheelers continue rapid growth

Regulation drives faster efficiency gains

• New car fuel efficiency +3%/y

• By 2040, new car consumption: 3-4 l/100 km

EV penetration by 2040

• Case considers aggressive penetration:

50% of sales, 32% of fleet

• EVs drive fewer km/y (mainly urban users)

Passenger transportation* fuel demandMb/d

More vehicle

kilometres

Biofuels & nat. gas

EVs

Efficiency gains

+2 Mb/d2015-40

3

* Light Duty Vehicles (LDV) + 2&3 Wheelers + Buses

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25

2015 2040

Growing road freight oil demandContinuous increase in freight transport

Growth dominated by long-haul freight

• 2000-15 average: +3.4%/y tonne-km

• Assumption: tonne-km to grow at same pace

Faster efficiency gains expected

• New truck fuel efficiency +1.5%/y

• Big-Data tools help boost load factor

Growing natural gas penetration

EV technology less suitable for heavy loads and long distances

Road freight transportation fuel demandMb/d

More tonne-

kilometres

Efficiency gains

EVsBiofuels, H2 & nat. gas

4

Load factor

+6 Mb/d2015-40

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10

2015 2040

10

2015 2040

Global cap stimulating LNG substitution

Low fleet turnover slowing efficiency gains

Little alternative to jet fuel

Strong traffic growth for cargo and people

Increasing demand for aviation and marine fuels

Aviation fuel demandMb/d

Oil demand for marine fuelsMb/d

More tonne-

kilometres

Efficiency gains

More tonne-

kilometres

Efficiency gains

LNG

Biojet

5

Load factor

+1 Mb/d2015-40

Load factor

+4 Mb/d2015-40

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20

2015 2040

Sustained demand for polymers

Oil demand for petrochemicals Mb/d

+0.6 Mb/d oil, +2.3 Mb/d ethane and LPG in 2040

Growing oil demand for petrochemicals

Market growth & new uses

CTO/MTO

Naphtha

LPG

Ethane

GasoilRecycling

& bioplastics

6

+3 Mb/d2015-40

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10

2015 2040

10

2015 2040

Declining use of oil for residential heating Oil use persists in some regions and for back up and peak power

Declining oil use in buildings and power generationOil displaced by natural gas

Oil demand for power generationMb/d

Oil demand for buildingsMb/d

Moregeneration*

Other sources of electricity

Growth* Other energies

Efficiency gains

Nat. gas

Nat. gas

7

-2 Mb/d2015-40

* Growth applied to oil * Growth applied to oil

-3 Mb/d2015-40

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Industry, agriculture, and non-energy usesLittle alternative to oil in some sectors (e.g. feedstocks)

15

2015 2040

Oil demand for industry and other uses Mb/d

Industrial production

growth*

Nat. gas

Efficiency gains

Other energies

8

-1 Mb/d2015-40

* Growth applied to oil

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Regional weights in oil demand are shifting rapidly

Estimated oil demand by region

100%

2015 2040

Developing markets are driving growth

OECD falls from half to about 30% of oil demand

9

Europe

Asia OECD

Asianon-

OECD

MiddleEast

Africa

Lat.Am

NorthAmerica

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70

100

130

160

190

2015 2040

Sustained oil demandDespite EVs, efficiency gains, and substitution

Demand for mobility remains strong in

emerging countries

Natural gas is the main alternative to oil

• 15 Mb/d of oil displaced by gas

Aggressive case for EV penetration

Stronger disruptions needed to meet the IEA 450 ppm scenario

Total oil demandMb/d

Growth

Efficiencygains

EvsNat. gas

BioOthers

10

+10 Mb/d2015-40

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Oil demand sensitivities in 2040

Passenger vehicules

Freight

Marine

Aviation

+/- 33%

70% of sales in 2040

30% of sales in 2040

2040 Oil Demand (Mb/d)

11

EV penetration

Efficiency gains

in transportation

4

3

1

2

6

2

-3

-3

-1

-1

-5

-3

-7 7

+/- 0.5% per year

growth