EIA-scary Oil charts

8/7/2019 EIA-scary Oil charts

1/27

Meeting the Worlds Demand for

Liquid FuelsA Roundtable Discussion

A New Climate For Energy

EIA 2009 Energy Conference

April 7, 2009

Washington, DC


2/27

2

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

QuadrillionBtu Liquids

Natural Gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

History Projections

Source: EIA, IEO2008

36%

23%

6%

8%

29%

33%

24%

8%

6%

27%


3/27

3

World Liquids Consumption by End-UseSector, 2005, 2015, and 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2015 2030

QuadrillionBtu

Building Industrial Transportation Electric Power

Source: EIA, IEO2008


4/27

4

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

LightSweetCr

udeOil(2007

$/B)

Reference CaseHigh World Oil Price

Low World Oil Price

World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases,AEO2009 Real Prices

History Projections

Source: EIA, AEO2009, NYMEX

$130

$200

$50

Closing price on April 3, 2009


5/27

5

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MillionBa

rrelsperDay

Reference Case

Low World Oil Price

High World Oil Price

World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases,AEO2009

History Projections

Source: EIA, AEO2009

105

89

119

86

2008


6/276

NOCs Increasing Control over the Worlds

Oil and Gas Reserves

1970

85%

14%

1%

Source: PFC Energy, Oil & Gas Journal, BP Statistical Review

2009

65%

12%8%15%

Full IOC Access

Full IOC Access

Reserves Held by

Russian Companies NOC Reserves(Equity Access)

(Limited Equity Access)NOC Reserves

(Limited EquityAccess)

NOC Reserves

SOVIETReserves


7/277

Liquids Supply in 2030

Low Price Case

3%

7%

45%

45%

2007

40%

4%

1%

55%

High Price Case

1%

18%

30%

51%


Reference Case

1%11%

40%48%

OPEC Conventional

Non-OPEC Unconventional

OPEC Unconventional

Non-OPEC Conventional


8/278

Worlds Liquid Fuels Supply


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

MillionBa

rrelsperDay

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110Non-PetroleumUnconventional

LiquidsNon-OPEC

Unconventional

Petroleum Projects

Non-OPECUnconventional

Petroleum LiquidsOPEC Unconventional

Petroleum Liquids

Non-OPEC

Conventional Projects

OPEC Conventional

Projects

Non-OPEC Existing

Conventional

OPEC Existing

Conventional

AEO2009 Reference

Total Consumption

43

UnidentifiedProjects


9/279

Top 15 Liquids Producers

and Their Prospects


Russia

United States

Mexico

Canada

Kuwait

Norway

Nigeria

Brazil

Algeria Saudi Arabia

China

IranUAE

Venezuela

Iraq

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

2,00

0

4,00

0

6,00

0

8,00

0

10,000

12,000

Current Liquids Production ('000 b/d)

Ch

angeinTotalLiquidsProduction

from2007to

2015('000b/d)


10/2710

Top 15 Liquids Producers

and Their Prospects


Russia

United States

Saudi Arabia

ChinaIran

Mexico

Canada

United Arab Emirates

Venezuela

Kuwait

Norway

Nigeria

Brazil

Algeria

Iraq

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

2,00

0

4,00

0

6,00

0

8,00

0

10,000

12,000

Current Liquids Production ('000 b/d)

Ch

angeinTotalLiquidsProduction

from2015to

2030('000b/d)


11/2711

Costs of Production by Resource

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

Resources (billion barrels)

ProductionCost(dollars

-2008)

Produced MENA

OtherConventional

Oil

CO2

-EOR

EO

R

Deepwaterand ultra

deepwater

Arctic Heavy oil

andbitumen

Oilshales Gas

toliquids

Coalto liquids

Source: International Energy Agency, IEA


12/2712

Additional Slides

Country Sheets


13/2713

United States

Downside Risks & Upside Potential

Onshore fields might not be as responsive to EOR as

currently expected Independent E&P companies may not have access to

capital in the near-term

Legislation could open to development more currentlyrestricted areas

Legislation on climate change could provide additionalincentives to use CO2 for EOR

Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030

MillionBarrelsperDay


Index of Total Wells Drilled Annually

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndexto1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperB

arrel

Onshore Drilling Offshore DrillingTotal Drilling WTI Price

Source: I.H.S. Energy, 2007

2007 Oil Production by Com pany

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,0003,500

4,000

4,500

Othe

r

Chevron

Cono

coPh

illips

Exxo

nMob

il

Occid

ental

Anad

arko

ThousandBarrelsperday

Source: Global Insight, September 2008

Domestic NOC

IOC

Foreign NOC


14/27

14

Saudi Arabia


Production could be cut to support world oil prices

Kingdom could abandon commitment to spare capacityand high production levels

Field decline rates could accelerate

Production could be expanded to discourage

alternatives


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndexto1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperB

arrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Saudi Aramco Chevron

Th

ousandBarrelsperday

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Pathfinder 2009

Domes tic NOC

IOCForeign NOC


15/27

15

Russia


High levels of taxation could remain in place

Exploration in eastern Siberia and offshore could falldue to concerns about nationalization

Levels of investment could remain low.

Future changes in taxation policies could have largeimpact and encourage investment

Small firms could rebound faster than expected fromfinancial crisis


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndexto1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperB

arrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Rosn

eftLU

Koil

TNK-BP

Surgutnefte

gazTa

tneft

Gazprom

Priva

teIn

vestors Ot

her



Domestic NOC

IOCForeign NOC


16/27

16

Brazil


Changes to licensing and bid round structure could be

severe enough to discourage some foreign investors Subsalt potential could be less than expected

Unexpected technical difficulties could slow productionof subsalt resources

Changes to licensing and bid round structure could

work to facilitate investment and joint development Subsalt potential could be much larger than expected


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndexto1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperB

arrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Petrobras Shell Reps ol YPF Other

T

housandBarrelsperday


Domes tic NOC

IOC

Foreign NOC


17/27

17

Canada


Current conventional decline rates could accelerate

Environmental legislation (in Canada or the U.S.) couldlimit bitumen production

Decline rates at conventional fields might be slowed

Bitumen extraction technology could continue toimprove


0

50

100

150

200

250

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel

Onshore Drilling Total Drilling WTI Price


Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030


Conventional Liquids BitumenSource: EIA, AEO2009


-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Other

Syncrude

Suncor

Energy

ImperialOil

Husky

Energy

Petro-

Canada

Shell

Canadian

Natural

Resources

EnCana

ThousandBarrelsperd

ay

Source: Global Insight, 2009

Domestic

IOC

Foreign NOC


18/27

18

Algeria


Government could further discourage foreign

investment, as it did with the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law Sonatrachs ability to invest in production maintenance

and expansion could be hindered due to competinggovernment expenditure needs

Government could reverse nationalization tendencies

expressed in the 2006 Hydrocarbon Law


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Sonatra

ch

Cepsa

Eni

Anadar

ko

MaerskOil&G

as

Sinopec

Cono

coPhilli

ps

Oth

er

ThousandBarrelsp

erday


Domes tic NOC

IOC

Foreign NOC


19/27

19

Nigeria


Violence in the Delta could continue and expand into

deepwater locations Financial management at NNPC could deteriorate

further

Nigerian government might implement policies thatreduce violence in the Delta


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0100200300400500600700

800900

1000

NNPC

Shell

MobilP

rodu

cingN

igeria

Ch

evron

ExxonM

obil

Total

Eni

Adda

x

Cono

coPhillip

s

NPDC

Continen

talO

il

Statoi

lHyd

ro

Othe

rThousandBarrelsperday


Domes tic NOC

IOCForei n NOC


20/27

20

Kuwait


KPCs technical ability to maintain and expand

production could be hindered by politically motivatedmanagement changes

Political disagreements could prevent Project Kuwaitfrom achieving expected progress

Political disagreements could settle and allow Project

Kuwait to move forward KPC technical capabilities could return to previous

levels

Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Kuw ait Oil Com pany (KOC) Kuw ait Gulf Oil Com pany (KGOC)

ThousandBarrelsperda

y


Domes tic NOC

IOCForeign NOC


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel




21/27

21

Iraq


Violence could escalate as U.S. troops withdraw

Legislation and licensing issues between nationalgovernment and Kurdistan regional government couldinhibit large scale foreign investment

Security could continue to improve

National and Kurdistan regional governments could

reach agreement on licensing and jointly encourageforeign investment


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

67

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14001600

1800

2000

South Oil (SOC) North Oil (NOC) DNO Kurdistan

Regional

Government



Domes tic NOC

IOCForeign NOC


22/27


23/27

23

Venezuela


Nationalization tendencies could continue

Foreign investment could continue to be discouragedeither directly through government actions or indirectlythrough threats of nationalization and instability

E&P investment could become more limited due tonon-sector expenditures

Confidence in contract stability might be repaired,encouraging renewed foreign investment


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel




0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

PDVSA

Chevron

Total

BP

Petro

brasEne

rga

StatoilHydro

Shell

Other

ThousandBarrelspe

rday


Domes tic NOC

IOCForeign NOC

Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030


Conventional Liquids Extra-HeavySource: EIA, AEO2009


24/27

24

UAE


Government could refuse to renew concessions and

place additional pressure on ADNOC to achieveproduction goals without IOC participation

Government could renew concessions upon expiry orenable different structure encouraging IOC participation


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

ADNO

C

Exxo

nMob

il

Total

BP

Shell

Othe

r

ThousandBarrelsperd

ay


Domes tic NOC

IOC

Foreign NOC


25/27

25

Mexico


Government may be unable to adopt legislation to allow

foreign technology to be implemented Deepwater GOM resources could be much lower than

anticipated

Government could adopt legislation that allows foreigntechnology to be implemented

GOM resources might higher than expected


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030

MillionBarrels

perDay



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Pemex



Domes tic NOC

IOCForeign NOC


26/27

26

China


Declines at major mature fields could accelerate

Offshore developments could prove insufficient tocompensate for onshore declines

Offshore boundary issues might be resolved

Offshore resources might prove more significant thancurrently thought

Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

67

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030




-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

CNPC Sinopec CNOOC other


Source: PFC NOC Service, 2009

Domestic NOC

IOC

Foreign NOC


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingInde

xto1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Dollarspe

rBarrel




27/27

27

Norway


Decline rates at major fields could accelerate

Smaller finds could be unable to compensate fordeclines at existing large fields

Governments licensing terms could continue toencourage investment despite competition from otherpromising offshore developments

A significant number of small finds could be capable ofoffsetting some of decline in existing fields


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

DrillingIndex

to1995

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

DollarsperBarrel



Expected Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2006 2015 2030

MillionBarrels

perDay



-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

PetoroAS

StatoilASA

NorskH

ydroASA

Exxo

nMo

bilC

orp

TOTA

LSA

Cono

coPh

illips Other

ThousandBarrelspe

rday Domes tic NOC

IOC

Foreign NOC

Documents

EIA-scary Oil charts