Oil Monitor 300312

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    Oil monitorOil monitorOil monitorOil monitor 30 March 201230 March 201230 March 201230 March 2012

    Dr Zac PhillipsDr Zac PhillipsDr Zac PhillipsDr Zac Phillips

    +44 203 463 [email protected]

    NeerajNeerajNeerajNeeraj PPPPaliwalaliwalaliwalaliwal

    +44 203 463 [email protected]

    Alex OgbechieAlex OgbechieAlex OgbechieAlex Ogbechie

    +44 203 463 [email protected]

    In this editionIN THIS EDITIONIN THIS EDITIONIN THIS EDITIONIN THIS EDITION 1111DATA WATCHDATA WATCHDATA WATCHDATA WATCH 1111PUBLISHED RESEARCHPUBLISHED RESEARCHPUBLISHED RESEARCHPUBLISHED RESEARCH 2222OIL MARKETOIL MARKETOIL MARKETOIL MARKET 2222FROM THE TRADING FLOFROM THE TRADING FLOFROM THE TRADING FLOFROM THE TRADING FLOOROROROR 3333BIGGEST MOVERS 3NEWS ROUNDUPNEWS ROUNDUPNEWS ROUNDUPNEWS ROUNDUP 4444OILEX LTD (OEXLN) 4TOWER RESOURCES (TRPLN) 4MATRA PETROLEUM (MTALN) 4BOWLEVEN (BLVNLN) 5SALAMANDER ENERGY (SMDRLN) 5ITHACA ENERGY IN (IAELN) 6NAUTICAL PETROLEUM (NPELN) 6VOLGA GAS (VGASLN) 6AFREN (AFRLN) 7FAROE PETROLEUM (FPMLN) 7JKXOIL &GAS (JKXLN) 8PARKMEAD GROUP (PMGLN) 8SERICA ENERGY PLC (SQZLN) 9ENEGI OIL PLC (ENEGLN) 9STOCKS UNDER COVERAGSTOCKS UNDER COVERAGSTOCKS UNDER COVERAGSTOCKS UNDER COVERAGEEEE 11111111

    Data watch

    Indices

    Index Close Change

    FTSE All share 3,002 -39.6

    O&G 8,420 -215.2

    Dow 13,146 99.7

    S&P 1,403 10.5

    O&G 506 -6.5

    EuroStoxx 263 -3.0

    O&G 343 -8.4

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    CommoditiesCommodity Close Change Chart

    Crude

    BFO ($/bbl)

    WTI ($/bbl)

    123.5

    105.4

    -1.9 (-1.5%)

    -2.2 (-2.1%)

    3 Month Performance ($/bbl)3 Month Performance ($/bbl)3 Month Performance ($/bbl)3 Month Performance ($/bbl)

    Crude Futures

    BFO ($/bbl)

    WTI ($/bbl)

    116.9

    107.1

    -1.2 (-1.0%)

    -1.7 (-1.6%)

    Forward Curve (33Forward Curve (33Forward Curve (33Forward Curve (33rdrdrdrd month)month)month)month)

    Gas

    Henry ($/mcf)

    NBP (p/therm)

    2.01

    61.6

    -0.17 (-7.8%)

    8.5 (15.9%)

    Gas price ($/mm btu)Gas price ($/mm btu)Gas price ($/mm btu)Gas price ($/mm btu)

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    CurrencyCurrency Close Change 3 Month Performance

    USD/GBP ($/) 1.601 1d 0.014

    1m 0.010

    3m 0.047

    1.52

    1.54

    1.56

    1.58

    1.60

    1.62

    USD/EUR ($/) 1.335 1d 0.008

    1m 0.003

    3m 0.039

    1.25

    1.30

    1.35

    1.40

    1.45

    YEN/USD (/$) 82.2 1d -0.2

    1m 1.0

    3m 5.2

    76

    78

    80

    82

    84

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    WTI BFO

    90

    100110

    120

    130

    WTI BFO

    -

    5

    10

    15

    20

    NBP Henry Hub

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    Published Research

    Oil Market

    Crude oilUS crude inventories (see below) increased by record 7.1mm

    bbl to 353.4mm bbl. This week build was primarily lead by

    1.0mm bb/d increase (w-o-w) in crude imports to 9.3mm bbl/d.

    Crude inventories are now at a seven month high and are also

    in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year

    Crude Inventories (m bbl)

    Source:Source:Source:Source: EIA, Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Oil Price ($/bbl)

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

    Crude prices (above) have been falling entire week reacting to

    bearish news flow from across the globe, and the WTI / BFO

    spread has again widened.

    WTI / BFO Spread ($/bbl)

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

    In general, the oil markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical

    events. Earlier in the week prices fell on the Italys Prime

    Minister warning that Spain debt problems could reignite the

    European debt crisis.

    The prospect of a release of strategic oil reserves from the

    United States and some European nations like UK, France alsopressured oil. US government official has confirmed that they

    are considering a reserve release but no decisions had been

    made. Speculation over strategic oil reserves is likely to keep

    crude prices range bound.

    Distillates, Gasoline & Refinery

    Charge oilDistillate inventories fell by 0.7mm bbl (see below), and

    continue to remain in the middle of the 5-year observed range.

    Distillates Inventories (m bbl)

    Source:Source:Source:Source: EIA, Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

    353,390

    250

    275

    300

    325

    350

    375

    400

    Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    Jul 09 Jan 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Sep 11 Apr 12 Oct 12

    WTI BFO OPEC

    -35

    -30

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    Jul 09 Jan 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Sep 11 Apr 12 Oct 12

    135,866

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

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    Gasoline inventories declined by 3.5mm bbl partially due to

    increased seasonal demand and decline in imports. However

    the structural demand continues to remain week, as gasoline

    supply over the last four weeks is down by 6.1% y-o-y.

    Gasoline Inventories (m bbl)

    223,370

    175

    185

    195

    205

    215

    225

    235

    245

    Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

    Source:Source:Source:Source: EIA, Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

    Refinery utilization stood at 84.5%, up 230 bps from the

    previous week.

    Refinery Charge (m bpd)

    Source:Source:Source:Source: EIA, Bloomberg & Fox-Davies data

    From the trading Floor

    Biggest moversBiggest Movers

    Source:

    14,635

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    16

    17

    Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

    50.0%

    40.2%

    32.9%

    31.8%

    29.5%

    28.8%

    28.6%

    25.1%

    25.0%

    20.0%

    -12.5%

    -13.0%

    -14.3%

    -15.0%

    -15.8%

    -16.2%

    -16.7%

    -16.7%

    -18.2%

    -33.3%

    -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75%

    Odin Energy Ltd

    Greenvale Mining Nl

    Central Petroleum Ltd

    Gujarat Natural Resources

    Maverick Drilling &

    Meo Australia Ltd

    Empire Energy Group Ltd

    Ophir Energy Plc

    Grand Gulf Energy Ltd

    Oil Basins Ltd

    Europa Oil & Gas Holdings

    Blue Energy Ltd

    Capital Oil Ab

    Triangle Energy Global Ltd

    Oil & Gas Exploration &Roxi Petroleum Plc

    Syngas Ltd

    Mako Energy Ltd

    Globe Exploration Lp

    Kairiki Energy Ltd

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    News Roundup

    Oilex Ltd (OEX LN)

    CambayCambayCambayCambay----76H Well Operations Update76H Well Operations Update76H Well Operations Update76H Well Operations Update

    3333mmmm PerformancePerformancePerformancePerformance Oilex took another step forward towards

    the monetization of the block resources

    as it successfully completed a work over

    technique at the Cambay-76H horizontal

    well in the Cambay field onshore India. In

    the news:

    Procurement and installation ofequipment capable of managing thehigh reservoir pressure in the Cambayfield completed.

    The milling and clean out of fracturestimulation stages 8, 7, 6 and 5 havealso been successfully completed.

    What the above means is that four ofthe eight fracture stimulation stageshave now been fully opened and onepartially opened.

    Tubing will be installed once theremaining four stages have beencompleted and the well will then beflowed to surface.

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-

    detail.html?announcementId=11156569

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 18.75pChange (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -6.8%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg, Fox-Davies &

    Tower Resources (TRP LN)

    Moneyed Up!Moneyed Up!Moneyed Up!Moneyed Up!

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance

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    The announcement of a ~$32mm

    financing for Tower Resources should

    help restore investor confidence in a

    management team that has suffered the

    headwinds that exploration sometimes

    brings. With Namibia now the focus, the

    monies available should help the

    Company to once again gain traction. Inthis news:

    ~$32mm Equity Financing Facility withDarwin.

    Main purpose to provide fundingflexibility

    This agreement is in addition to itsexisting 8mm Standby EquityDistribution Agreement ("SEDA") with

    YA Global Master SPV Ltd("Yorkville").

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11156609

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 3p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -4.0%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Matra Petroleum (MTA LN)

    Momentum BuildingMomentum BuildingMomentum BuildingMomentum Building

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance Matras results this week have continuedto underline the Company's progress

    towards unlocking the value within these

    difficult reservoirs. Attention will now

    shift towards development, and the

    expansion of the reserves base. This

    news supports our 4p valuation and BUY

    recommendation. In this weeks news:

    Remedial action on A13 completedand production commenced with oilflowing naturally

    A12 underperformance isolated andattributed to poor completion;

    successful remedial action takenA14 well planned imminently3D seismic planned over the asset to

    delineate the productive horizons

    Cash or cash equivalents of 1.8million at year end

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11157901

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 0.9p

    ChangeChangeChangeChange (5(5(5(5----day)day)day)day) 5.9%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    Bowleven (BLVN LN)

    A Butterfly Emerges?A Butterfly Emerges?A Butterfly Emerges?A Butterfly Emerges?

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance The results mark the close of a year oftransition for BowLeven as it migrates

    towards the development of its

    discoveries. Sapele's volumes continue

    to improve, and while the all-important

    commerciality is yet to be declared the

    outlook remains buoyant. With the final

    development scenario for Etinde

    underway and a full work 2012

    programme fully funded, investors are

    well set for a year of intense activity.

    Following these results we reinstate our

    BUY recommendation with a 250p price

    target. In this news:

    Sapele-2 and Sapele-3 explorationwells encountered significanthydrocarbon intervals at multiplelevels, our fourth and fifth successfulwells in the Douala Bas

    Sapele-2 tested high quality light oilfrom Deep Omicron interval with apeak flow rate of 2,738 boepd

    Sapele-3 further extended the DeepOmicron and Epsilon fairways, with oilencountered in both intervals, 16kilometres from the original Sapele-1discovery well

    Substantial upgrade of Sapele DeepOmicron in place hydrocarbonvolumes following Sapele-3 wellresults. Deep Omicron P50 STOIIP andAssociated GIIP now estimated as615mm bbls and 1.5 tcf respectively.Resource revision on-going.

    Significant progress made towardsfinalising the Etinde developmentconcept, with the preferred approachbased on a hub and spokedevelopment

    Jack-up rig contracted for two firmplus two optional wells on Etinde

    2D seismic data set on the onshoreBomono Permit acquired in 2011 now

    fully integrated into existing datasetand first exploration well locationidentified.

    4C OBC 3D seismic acquired overparts of block MLHP-7. Interpretationto support appraisal/developmentactivities now ongoing.

    Group cash balance $124 million at 31December 2011, no debt.

    Fully funded for current explorationand appraisal programme on Etindeand Bomono

    Bomono farm-out discussions on-going.

    EOV disposal nearing completion.Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11156659

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 98p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) 11.3%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Salamander Energy (SMDR LN)

    Confidence BoosterConfidence BoosterConfidence BoosterConfidence Booster

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance

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    While the news underlines how farSalamander has progressed and the

    determination of its management in

    refining the Company's strategy, further

    work needs to be done to fully unlock

    the true value of the assets. The

    Company has re-aligned its portfolio to

    focus on three core areas and an active

    drilling campaign this year starting with

    the spud of the Tutung Alpha-3 ("TA-3")

    appraisal well should enhance the

    Company's upward trajectory. In the

    news:

    2P Reserves increased by 13.6% to75.3 MMboe (2010: 66.3 MMboe), with8MMbo added from Bualuang EastTerrace discovery

    Average daily production of 18,600boepd (2010: 20,300 boepd)

    Matured prospect inventory in NorthKutei, independent CPR points to676mm boe of gross meanprospective resources in four high-graded prospects

    Record pre-tax operating cash flow,before working capital changes,increased by 68% to $293.6 million

    (2010: $174.4 million) and profit beforetax of $112.6 million (2010: loss of$113.7 million)

    Year-end cash and funds balance of$85.8 million (2010: $99.2 million) andnet debt of $210.1 million (2010:$190.2 million)

    Deepened interest in Kerendandevelopment, Greater Kerendan area,Indonesia, and expanded acreageposition in Greater Bualuang area

    2012 average daily production rateforecast to be 12,000-13,000 boepdfollowing disposal of non-core

    producing assetsBualuang Bravo Platform on schedule

    for installation 3Q 2012

    Ensco-53 rig mobilised fordevelopment and exploration drillingin Greater Bualuang area

    Tutung Alpha-3 spudded, gasappraisal drilling ahead (the Tutungdiscovery is a gas-condensateaccumulation with a mean resourcevolume estimated at circa 60 Bcf)

    Signed 12 month contract for AtwoodMako jack up rig in Greater Bualuangarea from 3Q 2012

    Exploration drilling in North Kutei tocommence 4Q 2012

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11156730

    LastLastLastLast CloseCloseCloseClose 219p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -2.5%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    Ithaca Energy In (IAE LN)

    Assumes operatorship of Carna discoveryAssumes operatorship of Carna discoveryAssumes operatorship of Carna discoveryAssumes operatorship of Carna discovery

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance Ithacas confidence on the prospectivityof the Carna discovery which lies

    adjacent to the producing Garrow and

    Kilmar gas fields has risen. Ithaca plans

    to accelerate development studies on

    the field and the intention to submit

    Field Development Plan for approval

    before the end of 2012 is real positive

    news. In this news:

    Increased working interest from 16%to 32%.

    Assumes operatorship in the Carnadiscovery. The effective date of the

    Acquisition is January 1, 2012.

    The Carna discovery was made in early2009 with net pay of 127 feet TVD wasencountered in well 43/21b-5Z.

    The well tested gas at a grossstabilised rate of 8.8mmcfpd.

    New ownership structure: IthacaEnergy - operator (32%), Dyas Limited(24%), Centrica (40%), EWE EnergieAG (4%).

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11156565

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 199p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) 6.4%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Nautical Petroleum (NPE LN)

    Results of GCA report on the Kraken discoveryResults of GCA report on the Kraken discoveryResults of GCA report on the Kraken discoveryResults of GCA report on the Kraken discovery

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance

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    450Following on from the interim results on

    the 19th, this week's GCA report for

    Nighthawk establishes reserves from the

    Kraken discovery following the results of

    the recent series of flow tests (commercial

    flowrates from 9/02b-5z well drilled in Q3,

    2011). This news continues to support the

    stock specifically, and with a positive UK

    budget for operators in the North Sea, weremain optimistic fopr the continued

    growth of the Company. In this news:

    Independent Reserves Opinion (IRO)conducted by Gaffney, Cline &Associates Limited (GCA) on the Krakendiscovery.

    GCA estimates (net) 1P at 22mm bbl, 2Pat 42mm bbl and 3P at 68mm bbl.

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11156635

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 320

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -2.4

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Volga Gas (VGAS LN)

    Looking ForwardLooking ForwardLooking ForwardLooking Forward

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance This weeks results underline what has beena transformational year for Volga Gas, with

    2011 seeing the Company enter 2012 with a

    better cash flows and a growing core with

    which to provide fuel for future growth. The

    $10mm debt facility provides much needed

    development flexibility, which should see

    the Company close 2012 in a better

    position than it started. With current

    production up a further 16%, and an active

    exploration programme, the opportunity

    for further growth remains significant. In

    this news:

    Group average production increased93% to 2,147 barrels of oil equivalent perday (2010: 1,115 bopd) - Currentproduction of approximately 2,500boepd

    Revenues increased 118% to $28.6million (2010 $13.1 million).

    EBITDA up 256% to $8.9 million (2010$2.6 million).

    Net loss of $1.1 million (2010: net loss of$16.9 million).

    Operating cash flow before workingcapital of $7.6 million (2010 $5.5 million),after offsetting $3.1 million of gas salesfor loan repayments (2010: nil).

    10.1million in cash at 31 December 2011($26.6 million at 31 December 2010).

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11157937

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 102

    CCCChange (5hange (5hange (5hange (5----day)day)day)day) 1.7

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    Afren (AFR LN)

    2011 results underline progress2011 results underline progress2011 results underline progress2011 results underline progress

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance

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    2011 has been a transitional year forAfren, and it now has a portfolio which

    offers balance between exploration and

    production activities spread across

    geographies. It has lined up a high

    impact exploration programme which

    ensures that the potential for the

    medium-long term remains very strong.

    In 2011, the Company commenced oil

    production from Ebok field - a significant

    milestone. Further it also expanded its

    global presence through a series of asset

    acquisitions in Nigeria, East Africa and

    the Kurdistan region of Iraq. In this news:

    Net working interest 2P reservesincreased by 132% to 185 mmboe.

    Net 2P/2C reserves and resourcesincreased by 633% to 995 mmboe

    Cash at bank $292 mmRevenues were up 87% y-o-y to

    $597mm led by a 34% increase inhydrocarbon production (19.1 mboed)and 37%/54% rise in oil/gas pricerealizations.

    Net profit almost doubled to $125mmwith cash flow from operations

    recording 62% growth to $338mm.Group firmly on track for 2012

    production of 42-46 mboed.

    Net debt at $548 mm (Gearing 45%)Currently participating in high impact

    wells offshore Ghana and onshoreKurdistan region of Iraq.

    First phase of Okoro East to be fasttracked to H2 2012.

    Entry into the Kurdistan region of Iraqthrough acquisition of a 60%participating interest in the Barda RashPSC and a 20% participating interest inthe Ain Sifni PSC.

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11157965

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 130p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) 5.3%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)

    Flush with Success, the trick is to continueFlush with Success, the trick is to continueFlush with Success, the trick is to continueFlush with Success, the trick is to continue

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance It seems to be that 2011 has been a yearin which a number of companies have

    made the transition to Producer from

    Explorer, which is good for the sector;

    Faroe is now one of them. This balance

    has been brought about by monetisation

    of Maria discovery through swap deal, to

    discoveries on Butch in Norway and its

    first UK operated well - Fulla. We believe

    that while 2011 has been a

    transformational year, the momentum

    needs to be carried into 2012, and with a

    capex budget of up to 180mm, we

    expect this to be the case. In this news:

    Fivefold increase in 2P reserves to23.8mm boe

    Capex of up to 180mm - 100mm onexploration and up to 80mm ondevelopments

    Average production of approximately2,500boepd (economic productionaveraged approximately 10,100boepd)

    Turnover increased more than five-foldto 80.2m (2010: 15.1m)

    EBITDA increased significantly to40.9m (2010: 6.0m)

    Profit before tax, increased to 14.3m(2010: 26.0m loss)Secured $250m (approximately 156m)

    reserve based lending facility.

    Cash of 111.6m (31 December 2010:132.2m)

    Award of 7 new licences (3 operated)in Norway 2011 APA Round.

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11157934

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 166p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) 9.0%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN)

    Baseline established, rebuilding starts hereBaseline established, rebuilding starts hereBaseline established, rebuilding starts hereBaseline established, rebuilding starts here

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance There is plenty for the Bulls and theBears to read in JKXs statement as the

    higher revenues and drilling successes

    mask what is declining cash flows and

    lower production, and as always, for us,

    cash is king. LPG will make a full

    contribution in 2012, Russian gas

    should come on stream in 2012 and

    the recent decline in operational

    performance appears to have been

    arrested. Nevertheless, we believe that

    the optimistic outlook will take time for

    the market to believe and any resultant

    weakness in these shares following theresults is an opportunity, we believe, to

    pick up the stock as 2012 should be a

    year of better performance and

    improving outlook. In this news:

    Production down 12% to 9,045boepd (2010: 10,324 boepd);

    Operating profit down 14% to$82.1mm (2010: $95mm beforeexceptional items)

    Revenue up 23% to a record$236.9mm

    LPG project in Ukraine completedmid-year;

    Completion of the Koshekhablskoyegas field facility in Russia

    Phase II Koshekhablskoyedevelopment planned to doubleproduction from booked reserves;

    Drilling of two successful Ukrainianexploration wells in theMolchanovskoye "Wedge Zone"andthe Zaplavskoye exploration licence;booked reserves grew to90.7MMboe, with a reservesreplacement of 2.7.

    Full news story here:

    http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11159290

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 161p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -11.0%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Parkmead Group (PMG LN)

    The End of the BeginningThe End of the BeginningThe End of the BeginningThe End of the Beginning

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance These results mark the end of theCompany's journey from investment

    vehicle to junior E&P. these results are

    not about the reserve base, which is

    small, or the income, which is negligible

    (this year), but about the fact that the

    with ~$13mm in the bank, and the 2012

    appraisal and development programme

    funded, all the ingredients for near-term

    growth are now in place.

    Fully funded for its 2012 programme ofappraisal and drilling

    First UK North Sea acquisitioncompleted in November 2011(Platypus and Possum)

    Near term appraisal drillingSecond North Sea deal agreed in

    December 2011 (Pharos) gas prospect

    In addition to 4 UKCS gas basin blocksThird oil and gas deal agreed in March

    2012 - acquisition of a portfolio ofNetherlands onshore assets

    Four producing gas fields and two oilfields

    First production for ParkmeadThe full news story here:

    http://images.headland.co.uk/mmct2url.asp?ml=foxda

    vies&ea=fox-davies@fox-

    davies.com&cc=FOXDAVIES2826&url=http://www.lon

    donstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-

    news/market-news-

    detail.html?announcementId=11162042

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 20p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -1.3%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    Serica Energy Pl (SQZ LN)

    On to the next phaseOn to the next phaseOn to the next phaseOn to the next phase. Equity Funding on the. Equity Funding on the. Equity Funding on the. Equity Funding on the

    Agenda?Agenda?Agenda?Agenda?3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance 2011 has seen Serica complete its

    migration away from Asia, towards the UCS

    and Atlantic margin, and the near-term

    development of Columbus will herald the

    start of the new phase of growth. While

    past costs will be refunded by BP's farm in

    to its Namibian acreage, we believe that

    the scope for dramatic improvements in

    free cash flow are limited (cost cutting will

    have an impact at the margins), its yearend

    cash balance of $20mm in the context of its

    and its indicated programme of

    exploration, appraisal and development,means that the likelihood of an equity

    financing is likely as a means to supplement

    debt and other contractual financing

    arrangements in meeting the funding gap.

    Promising 2011 fiscal performance:o Revenue of $27.1mmo Cash from operations $7.5mmo Cash position of US$20 milliono No debt

    Columbus field development in 2012:o Negotiations concluded with BG for

    export via Lomond platform,

    subject to final documentation,partner and Board approvals

    o All engineering and design studiescompleted

    o NSAI estimate 11.2mm boe grossreserves in Block 23/16f

    Wells planned for Doyle and South Ottersubject to farm out

    Two further UK licences awarded at yearend

    85% Namibia's interest in central LuderitzBasin blocks (offshore)

    o Large structures identifiedo Secured farm-out with BP.o BP will carry full cost of 3D seismicsurvey and past costs (earns 30%)

    Six new blocks awarded in Irish RockallBasin, Serica operator

    o Three large prospects mapped:Muckish, Midleton, West Midleton

    o Farm-out campaigns commencedfor licences in the Slyne and RockallBasins

    Farm-out underway prior to drilling firstwell in Morocco

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11162084

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 37

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) -2.0

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    Enegi Oil Plc (ENEG LN)

    2011 results shows steady expansion2011 results shows steady expansion2011 results shows steady expansion2011 results shows steady expansion

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance

    0

    5

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    2011 has been a good year for theCompany, as it now has a portfolio which

    offers balance between near term and long

    term drilling activities spread across its

    operating regions (Tanzania and Canada).

    In addition to these areas, and in keeping

    with the Company's desire for a diverse

    portfolio of direct and indirect interests a

    range of assets at throughout the spectrum

    of the development cycle, the Company is

    also looking at further investment in East

    Africa as well as North and South America.

    With this approach, and the existing asset

    base, we believe that the Company is wellplaced to grow in 2012. While there is no

    doubting the portfolio's potential, we

    believe that further resources will be

    required for the Company to unlock and

    test this potential. In this news:

    Solo strategically increased its holdingsin the Ruvuma PSA in Tanzania from12.5% to 18.75% in the period and to25% subsequently

    The Ntorya-1 well (Mtwara block Tanzania), spudded 22 December 2011,currently at 2,600m.

    Loan with Reef Resources converted to aworking interest in Reef's Ontarioproperties,.

    A General Conveyance and AssignmentAgreement was completed in July 2011and Solo obtained a 23.8% workinginterest for the conversion of its existingloan and additional payments.

    Solo also obtained the option to acquirea further 14.3% for a further paymentonce Reef had raised at least that level ofindependent third party finance.

    In December 2011 Reef completed aCDN$1.96 million financing.Subsequently, Solo is currentlycompleting arrangements to take up theadditional percentage interest andexpects to complete that transaction inthe 2nd quarter 2012.

    The Company also commencedevaluation of a new explorationopportunity in Argentina under a Headsof Agreement with Obtala Resources Ltd

    Post period, a new exploration well;Airport North #1 was spudded inCanada. The well should be completedin early April.

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/m

    arket-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11162084

    Last CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 16

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) 10.2

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    Enegi Oil Plc (ENEG LN)

    Building on opportunitiesBuilding on opportunitiesBuilding on opportunitiesBuilding on opportunities

    3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance3m Performance

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    Today's results mark the close of a yearof transition for Enegi, and progress can

    finally be made on unlocking the value

    within its assets. In addition to building a

    portfolio of opportunities which offer

    potential for the Company to grow from

    alternate revenue streams number of

    sources, most notably the strategic

    partnership with Advanced Buoy

    Technology, there is also the Company'sLast CloseLast CloseLast CloseLast Close 16p

    Change (5Change (5Change (5Change (5----day)day)day)day) 10.2% more conventional development

    portfolio. We believe that with ~$550m

    in cash, an ambitious future

    development programme and limited

    revenue generation, in the near-term,there will need to be either a scaling

    back of the development programme, or

    a combination of farmouts and / or

    disposals, or as is more likely, a financing

    to accelerate the opening up of the asset

    base. In the news:

    Nearing completion of the workoveron the PAP#1 well

    o Data suggests well could beflowed continuously

    Potential for Shale play across assets(Green Point)

    Agreement with Advanced BuoyTechnology

    o Applying for licenses in the UKNorth Sea under the 27thSeaward Licensing round

    o Targeting marginal / strandedgas reserves

    Executing early stage prospectingprogramme (County Clare, Ireland)

    Strengthened management team andBoard

    o Technical and financialcredentials bolstered

    Full news story here:http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11162038

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

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    Stocks under coverage

    Company Ticker Recommendation DatePrice

    Latest Target Difference

    Aminex AEX LN UR Nov'11 5p 13p 160%

    Borders & Southern BOR LN BUY Nov'10 67p 150p 124%

    Bowleven BLVN LN Buy Nov'11 98p 250p 155%

    Circle Oil COP LN BUY Feb'12 21p 95p 352%

    Desire Petroleum DES LN UR Mar'11 29p 40p 38%

    Enegi Oil ENEG LN UR Nov'10 16p 25p 56%

    Falklands Oil & Gas FOGL LN BUY Apr'11 63p 250p 297%

    Great Eastern Energy GEEC LN BUY Mar'12 328p 440p 34%

    GulfKeystone GKP LN BUY Mar'12 262p 320p 22%

    Gulfsands GPX LN UR Jan'11 150p 350p 133%Hardy Oil & Gas HDY LN BUY Aug'11 158p 250p 58%

    Heritage Oil HOIL LN BUY Mar'11 143p 310p 117%

    Jubilant Energy JUB LN Buy Mar'12 31p 55p 77%

    Matra Petroleum MTA LN BUY Jan'12 1p 4p 290%

    Max Petroleum MXP LN BUY Mar'11 13p 50p 285%

    MEO Australia MEO AU BUY Feb'12 A$0.34 A$0.60 76%

    Range Resources RRL LN BUY Mar'12 13p 27p 108%

    Red Emperor RMP LN BUY Mar'12 42p 65p 55%

    Rockhopper RKH LN BUY Nov'11 328p 600p 83%

    San Leon Energy SLE LN BUY Feb'12 10p 60p 500%

    Sterling Energy SEY LN HOLD Jul'11 39p 30p (23%)

    Tower Resources TRP LN HOLD Jul'10 3p 4p 33%Victoria Oil & Gas VOG LN BUY Feb'12 4p 13p 225%

    Source:Source:Source:Source: Bloomberg & Fox-Davies

    NOTE:NOTE:NOTE:NOTE: Bold indicates Research this week

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    Oil Monitor 30 March 2012

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