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Oil Market Outlook
NGA Market Forum, April 21 –Hartford, CT
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are sometimes, but not always, identified by such phrases as “will”, “expects”, “is expected to”, “should”, “may”, “is likely to”, “intends” and “believes”. All statements other than statements of historical facts, including, among others, statements such as those regarding our future targeted financial position; return on capital employed; oil and gas production forecasts; reserve information; reserve recovery factors; plans for future development and operation of projects; estimates of capital expenditures and our expected exploration and development activities and plans; exploration expenditures; finding and development and production costs; expected start-up dates for projects; expected synergies resulting from the merger of Statoil ASA and the oil and gas assets of Norsk Hydro ASA; HSE goals and objectives of management for future operations are forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons, including the risks described in Item 3-Key Information in our Annual Report on Form 20-F/A filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found our website at www.Statoil.com.
These forward-looking statements reflect current views with respect to future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; currency exchange rates; political and economic policies of Norway and other oil-producing countries; general economic conditions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; global political events and actions, including war, terrorism and sanctions; the ability of Statoil to successfully integrate the oil and gas assets of Norsk Hydro ASA and the realization of expected synergies and cost savings from the merger; the timing of bringing new fields on stream; material differences from reserves estimates; inability to find and develop reserves; adverse changes in tax regimes; development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; the actions of competitors; the actions of field partners; the actions of governments; relevant governmental approvals; industrial actions by workers; prolonged adverse weather conditions; natural disasters and other changes to business conditions; and other factors discussed in our Annual Report on Form 20-F/A.
Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking statements. Unless we are required by law to update these statements, we will not necessarily update any of these statements after the date of this presentation, either to conform them to actual results or to changes in our expectations.
Oil and Gas Reserves
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors -- The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as probable reserves, that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Annual Report on Form 20-F/A, File No. 1-15200, available on our website at www.Statoil.com. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
Disclaimer
2
Presentation Outline
• Who is Statoil?
• Current Global Market Fundamentals
• US Oil Production Growth Potential
3
Statoil’s Business
International energy company with operations in
38 countries
More than 40 years of experience from oil and
gas production on the Norwegian continental
shelf
Headquartered in Stavanger,
Norway with approximately 22,000 employees
worldwide, and listed on the New York and
Oslo stock exchanges
Statoil’s strategy is centered around growth
and value enhancement through technology-
focused upstream strategy, strategic
midstream and downstream positioning, and
renewable energy and low-carbon
technologies
Eagle Ford Operator
Marcellus Operator
Bakken Operator
Eagle Ford
Alaska and Marcellus
Oil Sands, Canada
Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
Grand Banks, Canada
Oil trading, New York
2013
2012
2011
2010
2008
2007
2004
1996
1987
North American operations
Beaufort Sea
Kai Kos Dehseh
St. Johns
Marcellus
Eagle Ford Gulf of Mexico
Stamford
Washington D.C.
Grand Banks
Anchorage
Houston
Mexico City
South Riding Point Terminal Grand Bahamas
Calgary
Bakken
Austin
Williston
Chukchi Sea
Statoil Office
Statoil Asset
A reminder of the fundamentals of our industry
1970s │Big discoveries 2000s │Credit crunch and shale 1980s │The oil glut 1990s │Middle East
Volatility is the name of the game – predictions are uncertain
Brent price development
$/bbl
0
40
80
120
160
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Brent real Brent nominal
Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream
6
7
Global oil demand growth mbd
Oil demand outlook – medium-term Average annual demand growth of 1.2 mbd
Source: IEA; Statoil
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Other non-OECD China
India OECD Americas
OECD Europe Other OECD
Total
• Demand growth driven by EM
• China and India continue delivering
healthy growth
• OECD resumes its downward
trend
• Rising prices towards the end of
the decade will impact demand
8
US oil production mbd
Oil supply outlook - medium-term US expected to deliver average annual growth of 0.5 mbd
Source: IEA; Statoil
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Growth Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Alaska GOM L-48 conventional NGL Shale
US oil production mbd
9
Non-Opec production ex US mbd, change yoy
Oil supply outlook – medium-term Non-Opec ex US in slight decline
Source: IEA; Statoil
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Latin America Other non-OECD
OECD ex US Russia
• Reduced levels of investment in
the near term will bring less
production as the current project
portfolio runs out and natural
decline takes its toll
• Canada will add healthy growth
together with Brazil
• Russia heading for decline
10
Supply & Demand balance and
commercial oil stocks mbd
OECD commercial oil stocks mb, annual average
Global balance Tightening towards 2020
Source: IEA; Statoil
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8Change in oil stocks
94
96
98
100
102
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Oil demand Oil supply
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
stocks change historical average
Today’s capex reductions risk tomorrow’s bbls
11
Project delays due to low price environment mbd
Sources: PIRA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
By 2016 By 2018 After 2018
UK
Qatar
Kazakhstan
US-GOM
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Nigeria
Angola
Sources: IEA; Statoil
Supply & Demand balance (mbd)
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Oil demand Oil supply
Can a more competitive shale bbl fill the gap?
12
US Tight Oil Price Supply Curve Shale Crude Oil Production @ $70/bbl mbd
Source: ARI Consulting
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2015 2020 20252015 2016
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
0 20 40 60 80 100
$/B
bl W
TI
Remaining Recoverable Resource (BBbls)
2013 2016
Where will the barrels come from?
13
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Kbpd
Permian Eagleford Bakken Niobrara Woodford (SCOOP/STACK) Other
Cushing
~63% prod
closer to water
with sufficient
infrastructure
USGC
N.Dakota
Source: ARI ; Statoil
US Infrastructure beginning to catch up
14
NA Crude Differentials to Brent USD/bbl
-$40
-$35
-$30
-$25
-$20
-$15
-$10
-$5
$0
$5
WTI - Brent WCS - Brent Bakken - Brent
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Platts daily prices through Jan 2016.
NYMEX and Argus for 2016-2020 price outlook
15
Brent price short-term forecasts (USD/bbl)
30
50
70
90
110
130
2016 2022 2028 2034 2040
Brent price long-term forecasts (USD/bbl)
30
50
70
90
110
2015 2016 2017 2018
So, what can we expect in terms of pricing Large deviations, but all above futures prices from 2017 and onwards
Sources: Selected market outlook reports, Statoil * Lambert Energy’s medium-term Brent crude oil price
Presenter’s name: Matthew Partridge
Presenter’s title: Head of North American
Market Analysis
E-mail address: [email protected]
Tel: +203 905 7303 www.statoil.com
16