Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Oil and Natural Gas Outlook to 2035
US-Russia Energy Working Group May 26, 2010
Washington, DC
Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator
2Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Outline
• Energy overview (all fuels)
• Oil and other liquid fuels
• Natural gas
3Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Non-OECD countries account for 86% of the increase in global energy use
0
200
400
600
800
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Non-OECDOECD
495543
590639
687739
50%
62%
50% 38%
energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
4Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Use of liquid fuels and natural gas use grows from 2007 to 2035, but both fuels lose market share
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Liquids (including biofuels)
Renewables (excluding biofuels)
Natural gasCoal
Nuclear
History Projections
35%
27%
23%
10%
5%
30%
28%
22%
14%
6%
Share of world total
world primary energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
5Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Oil and Other Liquid Fuels
6Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Our outlook reflects uncertainty in oil prices by considering a wide set of price cases
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
$210
$133
$51
High Oil Price case
Reference case
Low Oil Price case
ProjectionsHistory
light, sweet crude oil price2008 dollars per barrel
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
7Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
OPEC producers maintain an approximate 40% share of total liquids production in the Reference case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
45
111
13
OPEC conventional
Total
Unconventional
ProjectionsHistory
52Non-OPEC conventional
85
48
34
3
liquids productionmillion barrel per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
8Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and U.S. lead increases in non-OPEC conventional supplies
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Russia UnitedStates
Brazil Kazakhstan OECDEurope
Mexico Canada
2007 2020 2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
conventional liquids productionmillion barrels per day
9Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Natural Gas
10Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 35% of increasednatural gas use
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Other OECD
Central/South America
Africa
Non-OECDEurope/Eurasia
US
108
125136
145150 156
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
11Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
The Middle East accounts for almost one-third the increase in global natural gas production
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Middle East
Non-OECD Asia
Africa
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
Central and South America
United States
Australia/New Zealand
Other OECD
PercentChange
2007-2035
-9%
164%
22%
101%
21%
104%
75%
125%
natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
12Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
EIA expects increased shale gas production to have the largest market effects in North America and China
gas production in 2030 billion cubic meters
Source: EIA
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
US China Canada OECD Australia/ Latin Other MiddleEast
Russia
Shale gas
Other natural gas
Europe NewZealand
America Europe/Eurasia
13Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
By 2030, we expect shale gas to represent 7% of total global gas production
Source: EIA
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Shale gasOther natural gas
global gas productiontrillion cubic meters
14Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Over the past 5 years, EIA has significantly lowered its projection of LNG imports into the U.S.
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
History Projections
AEO2005
AEO2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlooks
U.S. net LNG importsbillion cubic meters
15Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
2000 2030
Significantly reduced expectations for future U.S. LNG imports relative to conventional wisdom a few years ago
Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007
LNG trade expectations as of 2005-2006:National Petroleum Council’s “Hard Truth’s” study
138 billion cubic meters
per year
16Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
0
30
60
90
120
150
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
No new U.S. shale scenario
Reference scenario
High U.S. shale scenario
Shale gas production significantly affects projected U.S. gas imports, and could have similar effects in other gas importing countries
total U.S. natural gas imports billion cubic meters
ProjectionsHistory
Source: preliminary EIA projections
17Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
Monthly Energy Review www.eia.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html
National Energy Information Center (202) 586-8800Live expert from 9:00 AM – 5:00 p.m. EST
Monday – Friday (excluding Federal holidays)email: [email protected]
18Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
EXTRA SLIDES:U.S. SHALE GAS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR WORLD
NATURAL GAS MARKETS
19Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Since 1997, more than 12,000 gas wells completed in the Barnett shale
20Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010 Source: EIA
gas production billion cubic meters
wells drilled thousands
The result has been an accelerating increasein production from the Barnett field
21Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
U.S. shale gas plays
Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other shale formations in the U.S.
22Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
At this stage, the Haynesville and the Marcellus formations appear to be the most attractive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
Source: Smith International
rigs drilling for gas
Barnett
Haynesville
Marcellus
Fayetteville
Woodford
23Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production has increased 8-fold
010
2030
4050
6070
8090
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Antrim Barnett FayettevilleWoodford Haynesville Marcellus
Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting (2009 estimated)
shale gas production billion cubic meters
24Howard Gruenspecht, US-RUSSIA MEETING, May 26, 2010
Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Source: U.S. Geological Service, Mineral Management Service, private data, EIA.
technically recoverable gas resourcestrillion cubic meters
Unproved shale gas &coal-bed methane
Unproved conventional(including tight gas and Alaska*)
Proved reserves(all types & locations)
* Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect North Slope resources not included in previously published documentation.