Upload
koko
View
42
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Offshore Production is Important. 27% of U.S . oil production; ~$40 B /yr Katrina knocked out production & refining causing large spike in prices. Weather Impacts Industry in Many Important Ways. Fatigue. Extremes. Operations. Downtime Analysis. Pollutant Fates. Tows. Hurricanes. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Offshore Production is Important
27% of U.S. oil production; ~$40 B /yr Katrina knocked out production & refining causing
large spike in prices
Weather Impacts Industry in Many Important Ways
Tows
Operations
DowntimeAnalysis
FatigueExtremes
PollutantFates
Hurricanes
Generate waves up to 90 ft Damage infrastructure
– Production platforms– Pipelines– Refineries (50% of U. S. capacity)– Logistical support, e.g. shore bases
Affect cost of new facilities e.g. deepwater production facility costs $1 B
Generate evacuation costs & personnel risks ($100-$500 M/yr)
Changes in future hurricanes will affect all of the above
Ongoing Study: Climate Change & Hurricanes
Purpose: Estimate effect of climate change on future Gulf hurricanes
Scope– Modeling study conducted by NCAR– Validate by hindcasting past 11 yrs– Forecast 20 yrs in the next 50 yr– Funding from DOE & 20 Oil Companies– Finish in Feb 2010 with workshop of
world-wide expertsNCAR model results showing
change in hurricane potential in 2030 (blue indicates increase)
Summary
Gulf of Mexico is an important contributor to US energy
Severe weather (hurricanes) costs:– Capital investments – Storm-related damage– Lost production– Supply interruptions & price increases
To properly plan, Industry needs to estimate future hurricane activity
Regional climate modeling is only viable tool to estimate future change
Benefits of Regional Climate Modeling
for the
Offshore Oil Industry
Dr. Cortis Cooper, Fellow