Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Department of U.S. Department of EnergyEnergyOffice of ScienceOffice of Science

U.S. Department of U.S. Department of EnergyEnergyOffice of ScienceOffice of Science

Jerry ElwoodJerry ElwoodDirector, Climate Change Research Division,Director, Climate Change Research Division,Office of Science, U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change Research Division Update

BERAC MeetingMay 15, 2007

Climate Change Research Division Update

BERAC MeetingMay 15, 2007

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Update on Climate Change Research Program

Climate Change Science Program Synthesis Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Productsand Assessment Products

Strategic Plan for BER’s Climate Change Strategic Plan for BER’s Climate Change Research ProgramResearch Program

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Products/Reports (SAPs)

CCSP committed to produce 21 products DOE/BER responsible for producing 3 of those 21 Products to be government (CCSP) reports after peer and

public review and NSTC/CENR clearance

Purpose of SAPs:

1. Support informed discussion and decisions by policymakers, resource managers, and other CCSP stakeholders

2. Perform analyses structured around specific questions3. Help define future directions and priorities of the CCSP4. Satisfy assessment requirements of Global Change

Research Act of 1990

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

DOE/BER responsible for producing three Synthesis and Assessment Products

SAP 2.1: Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (SAP 2.1a) and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application (SAP 2.1b) – prepared by DOE FACA committee; NSTC clearance for printing and release imminent

SAP 3.1: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications – prepared by DOE FACA committee; peer review completed, public review initiated

SAP 4.5: Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the U.S. – prepared by experts at DOE labs; expert and public review completed, initiation of NSTC clearance process imminent

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy Strategic Planning: The premise for climate change research has changed

Less emphasis on climate change detection and attribution – stronger evidence of coherent warming in the global atmosphere, in the ocean, and in snow and ice. Recent scientific analyses concludes that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from energy production and use are major drivers of the observed climate change anomaly

More emphasis on climate change science to support informed decision making about future climate and how to deal with and respond to it

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Issue central to DOE’s mission – Energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols are a major driver of the observed climate change anomaly over the past century

Challenges are:

1. provide decision makers with scientific information that allows informed decisions, e.g., “safe” level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (level at which CO2 in the global atmosphere should be stabilized)

2. developing possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to deal with future climatic changes and potential adverse consequences that may occur before or after stabilization

Strategic Planning: The premise …(cont’d)

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy Strategic Planning: The premise for climate change research has changed

Need to answer questions that decision makers/society are asking or will likely ask:

What will happen? How is climate likely to progress over the coming decades to centuries under different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios? Could human-induced forcing cause abrupt changes in climate, and if so, how abrupt and how much?

What would climate change mean for us? What are potential impacts on human systems and on ecosystems and resources of value to humans?

What can we do about it? What are viable options and their efficacy in mitigating or adapting to climate change? When must specific alternatives for mitigation or adaptation be deployed?

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy Strategic Plan Challenges: Next Generation of Climate Change Research

Strategic Plan needs to map out DOE’s future investment portfolio in climate change research

Where to invest program dollars? balancing process research with computational

modeling and model development? Is there an optimal balance, and if so, what is it?

With constrained budgets, what research should be given the highest priority for funding to improve and provide a sound scientific underpinning of climate and Earth system models, including improving confidence in their application for answering policy relevant questions?

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Strategic Plan Challenges …(cont’d)

How do we ensure information from process research is better represented in models to improve their performance?

Where does DOE need to play a leading role? Where do we or should we depend on collaboration/partnering with other agencies?

What is needed to develop state-of-the-art models to effectively and efficiently utilize DOE’s leadership-class computing capabilities?

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

CCRD Strategic Plan: 5 overall goals

1. Advance climate & Earth systems modeling

2. Improve understanding and model representations of climate processes and Earth system processes that can affect climate

3. Improve understanding of human impacts on and consequences of climate change

4. Improve capabilities and infrastructure for conducting climate change research

5. Manage for results through strategic, problem-driven management approaches

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Strategic Plan Status for BER’s Climate Change Program

Draft plan - under review by BER staff

Plan is forward looking - defines the next generation of climate change research

Focuses on: 1. enhancing understanding of climate processes and Earth

system processes that influence climate, climate change responses and climate change feedbacks,

2. developing and improving climate and Earth system models needed to project and assess potential impacts on future climate of different emission scenarios and the potential consequences,

3. improving research capabilities, and 4. managing for results

Expect plan to be available for review prior to fall meeting

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Options for independent review of draft plan?

1. Workshop under “BERAC umbrella” with outside experts to review plan and address questions and assess if plan appropriate - provides recommendations, revises plan as necessary

2. Workshop under “BERAC umbrella” with outside experts to address challenge questions without seeing the plan – provides recommendations, and revises plan as appropriate

3. Workshop outside of “BERAC umbrella” to address questions and prepare report containing ideas and findings, but no recommendations (avoids FACA issue). Pros and cons of whether or not to consider the Strategic Plan in the workshop?