Upstream Engineering Centre

Ocean predictions and the oil and gas industry - room for improvement?

Colin GrantMetocean Technical Authority

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Ocean predictions and the oil & gas industry

• Ocean predictions have uses in 3 main areas in the industry

− Forecasts – real time operations and short term planning (1 to 5 day)

− Reanalysis products / hindcasts – operational planning

− “weather windows”

− Databases to establish design criteria such as 100 year and 10,000 year values

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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How useful are present ocean predictions?

• Waves

− Generally acceptable quality for both short term forecasts and as hindcast databases. Suitable calibration with measured data permits use for design studies and operability analyses.

• Currents

− Lack of accuracy in temporal comparisons – frequently miss peak events when compared to measured data. Issues of sampling. Some skill in certain regions on a climatological basis. Used with care by the industry, for design studies, often after calibration & adjustment.

• Water level

− Useful products for design when combined with extreme wave predictions to establish total water levels. Setting of platform decks.

• Temperatures & Salinity

− Industry not a major user. Hindcast archives used for design (flow assurance issues – hydrate formation etc). Oil spill weathering issues

• Sea ice conditions

− Increasingly important with the move towards Arctic environments

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Wave and current comparisons with data

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Major challenges & requirements

• Industry moving to deeper water and arctic areas.

• Deep water operations require knowledge of currents through the water column, both as forecasts and as hindcast databases.

− Riser and mooring design and control

− Combinations of parameters for response-based analyses using joint probabilities of key parameters

− Winds, waves & currents

− Wave crests & water levels

− Waves, currents and sea ice

• Example

− Gulf of Mexico

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Gulf of Mexico - Loop & Eddy Forecasts

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Macondo Oil Spill

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Macondo oil spill modeling

• Much modeling activity both by BP and the US Govt

• BP’s in-house oil spill model is being standardised on SINTEF’s “Marine Environmental Modelling Workbench”

− OSCAR – Oil Spill Contingency & Response

− DREAM – Dose-related Risk & Effects Assessment Model

− DEEPBLOW

• Require initialisation and boundary conditions from atmospheric and ocean models in order to run effectively

• Several other oil spill modelling providers e.g. ASA, BMT etc

http://www.sintef.no/static/ch/environment/numerical_modelling.htm

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Scenario – West of Shetland spill

• “My Ocean” Resource

• Time res – Hourly (+ daily mean)

• Spatial res - 0.1 deg

− (approx 6km)

• Depth

− Numerous levels to 600m

• Variables

− N & E Velocity

− Salinity

− Temperature

− Sea surface height above geoid

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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West of Shetland complexity

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0Longitude (W )

59.0

59.5

60.0

60.5

61.0

61.5

62.0

Latit

ude

W

X

Y

Z

Z

Wyville Thomson Ridge

M2

M3

M4

eddy

M1

cloud

MN

AW

NAW

8 9 10 11 Co

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Issues for oil spill modelling

• Availability of input data varies regionally

• Prediction of deep water oil spill trajectories is now a 3D dispersion problem

• Global models e.g. US Navy HYCOM – daily mean values

− Nest finer models from global models

• Use the ocean model that the regulator uses to enhance acceptability?

− Australia - Blue Link CSIRO / BoM / RAN

• BP long term collaboration with Imperial College, London

− ReEMS - Regional Environmental Monitoring System

− Open source codes

− WRF + ROMS (including sea ice) + SWAN + NOAH

− Main focus is climate change but also being used to assist in oil spill modeling

− Caspian used as a test bed (4km resolution)

− Work on Mediterranean, West Africa, Brazil etc

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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The future of ocean prediction?

• Linking modelling with observations

− In-situ, remotely sensed (satellite, aerial, HF radar etc)

− Formatting and geo-referencing issues

− Data assimilation

• Product development and dissemination

− Web / GIS based

− User friendly – aimed at decision makers, not specialists

• Integrated approaches to observation, forecasting and ultimately end user problem solving.

OP Net Seminar Oslo May 11 2011

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Questions