Ocean Climate ObservationState of the Program

Report to the

7th Annual System ReviewSilver Spring, MD October 25-27, 2010

David Goodrich

Acting Director, Climate Observations Division

NOAA Climate Program Office

photo courtesy of MeteoFrance

Building on Past Contributions …

Climate Observation Division

Mission

Build and sustain a global climate observing system that will respond to the long-term observational requirements of the operational forecast centers, international research programs, and major scientific assessments.

4

Ocean Climate Requirements

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Indicators of Change• Sea level rise• Ocean carbon sources

and sinks• The ocean’s storage and

global transport of heat and fresh water

• The air-sea exchange of heat and fresh water

• Sea ice extentGlobal AverageSea Surface Temperature

World OceanHeat Content

Global AverageSea Level Change

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Ocean Storageof CO2

Capabilities Required

• Global coverage by moored and drifting buoy arrays, profiling floats, tide gauge stations, and ship-based systems.

• Continuous satellite missions for sea surface temperature, sea surface height, surface vector wind, ocean color, and sea ice.

• Data and assimilation subsystems• System management and product

delivery

Ocean Observations are Critical to the NCS Implementation Strategy

Extremes in Changing Climate – Tropical Atlantic network supports hurricane information

Human Influence – Repeat Hydrography/CO2 Program assesses changing ocean biogeochemical cycle and acidification in response to human-induced activity

Five Societal Challenges

Water – TAO array data supports ENSO prediction, benefits US water resource decision-making

Coast-Local Sea-level Rise and Inundation – Argo supports global ocean steric component; major in situ networks

Marine Ecosystems – CORC support and California Current Ecosystem mooring with biogeochemical sensors

Composite system of systems designed to meet Climate requirements, but also supports:• Weather prediction• Global and coastal ocean

prediction• Marine hazards warning• Transportation• Marine environment and

ecosystem monitoring• Naval applications• 8 of 9 Societal Benefits

• Tide gauge stations• Drifting Buoys• Tropical Moored

Buoys• Profiling Floats• Ships of Opportunity• Ocean Reference

Stations• Ocean Carbon

Networks

• Arctic Observing System

• Dedicated Ship Support

• Data & Assimilation Subsystems

• Management and Product Delivery

• Satellites -- SST, Surface Topography, Wind, Color, Sea Ice

The Initial Global Ocean Observing System

All six global in situ implementation programs are linked internationally through

WMO/IOC JCOMM coordination

The Organizing Framework

International Partnershipsare Central

A global system by definition crosses international boundaries.

NOAA’s contributions are managed in cooperation with the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)

Global Ocean Observing System for ClimateNow 61% complete.

The Last 48 Hours

Argo Profiling Float Array

Surface Drifting Buoys1250 sustained array (achieved)

September 18, 2005

Analysis

• Sea level to identify changes resulting from climate variability.• Ocean carbon content every ten years and the air-sea exchange seasonally.• Sea surface temperature and surface currents to identify significant patterns of climate

variability.• Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh water to

identify changes in forcing functions driving ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions.

• Ocean heat and fresh water content and transports to: 1) identify changes in the global water cycle 2) identify changes in thermohaline circulation and

monitor for indications of possible abrupt climatechange

3) identify where anomalies enter the ocean, howthey move and are transformed, and wherethey re-emerge to interact with the atmosphere.

• Sea ice thickness and concentrations to identify changesresulting from, and contributing to, climate variability.

• The ocean is now prominent in the BAMSannual “State of the Climate” special edition.

Delivering Routine Ocean Analyses

Budget

Ocean Funding History

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$ K

FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Institutional Infrastructure

Product Delivery, Analysis/Reanalysis

CLS Argos Data Processing

Data & Assimilation Subsystems

Dedicated Ship Time

Arctic Observing System

Ocean Carbon Networks

Ocean Reference Stations

Argo Profiling Floats

Ships of Opportunity

Tropical Moored Buoys

Drifting Buoys

Tide Gauge Stations

Some Opportunities and Challenges

• Climate Service a high DOC and NOAA priority

• FY11 increase request in jeopardy• Ship Support

o Over $0.5M of unanticipated ship time costs

o Low priority for climate in Fleet Allocation• TAO Transition to NCS• Potential government-wide reductions

CPO’s Climate Observation Division

• John Calder – Arctic Program• Candyce Clark – JCOMM coordination, Ocean program

mgmt.• Kathy Crane – Arctic Program• Howard Diamond – Atmosphere, GCOS (NCDC)• David Goodrich – Acting Director• Sik Huh – International coordination (detail)• Joel Levy – Ocean program mgmt., Science editor• Gillian Lichota – Arctic Program • Chris Miller – Climate Change and Data Detection• Bill Murray – Climate Change and Data Detection• Claudia Perez – Administration, Finance• Steve Piotrowicz – Argo • Diane Stanitski – Ocean program mgmt., Annual

System Review• Sid Thurston – International coordination

Thank You