“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational

Capacity”

Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig

Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia University &

NASA Goddard Inst. For Space Studies2880 Broadway

New York, NY 10025

New York Bight Sub-Regional Meeting

May 13, 2008

Skating in Central Park 1890

Typical End-Winter View of Central Park Lake

Dakota Building

1900 2000 2080

UHIUHI

UHI

GW

GW

NYC’s Heat BurdenPast, Present and Projected:

Columbia University & GISS

~7oC / 13oF

2oC

7 days above 90oF 14 days above 90oF

3-4 days above 95oF

Most of Summer above 90oF

17-50 days above 95oF

GW = Global WarmingUHI = urban heat island

“Very Wet” Days (~2 inches)

Very wet days occur ~25% more often in the 2050s, and 50% more often in the 2080s

Source: CCSR

GCM Projected Change in Sea Level Rise

Draft April 10, 2008 Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research

Note: There are 7 GCM's and 3 emission scenarios used. Base = 2000 to 2004, 2020s = 2020-2029, etc…

Min-Max25%-75%Median value0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2020s 2050s 2080s

Sea Level Rise (cm)

Projected Change In NYC Area Sea Level

(Extremely Conservative on Greenland & Antarctica)

Former “Urban Dispersion Program” “Met Net”

New Columbia University “Green Met Net” – 4 nodes as May 2008

LI City

Flushing

MorningsideHeights

Bronx

Benefits to the people of NYC from MetNet Data

• Emergency-response planning: for accidental or terrorist releases

• Weather forecasts of precipitation, sea breeze movement, thunderstorm activity, etc.

• Climate-change evaluation & planning: risk deter-mination & mitigation strategies

• Ozone and PM/aerosol forecasts & prevention• Human-health impacts from heat, cold, & poor air quality• Energy planning based on local urban heat island

variations & of potential new sources (e.g., wind, solar)

• Measurements in real-time• Permanent and expandable facility • Secure two-way data-flow communications• Quality-assured data• Permanent data-archive• Secure-access to archive• Transparent graphical user-interface developed

with end-user input• Dynamic-forecasts for emergency-response• A decision support facility

Requirements of a NYC MetNet

Potential Stakeholders

• City of New York: OEM (Fire, Police), DEP, Dept. of Health, et al.

• New York State: DEC

• Federal: NOAA/NWS, EPA, FAA

• Business community sectors