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Key Climate Challenges for Coastal ZonesLessons from New York City and Hurricane Sandy

Cynthia RosenzweigNASA GISS/ Columbia University

National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure Symposium

Boston, MassachusettsNovember 12, 2013

Outline

• Climate Change Challenges in Coastal Zones

• New York City Adaptation Process

• Responding to Hurricane Sandy

• Sandy as Tipping Point

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Coastal ZonesKey Findings from Draft National Climate Assessment

• Coastal zones are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, inland flooding, and other climate-related changes.

• Climate change increases exposure of important assets, such as ports, tourism and fishing sites, in already-vulnerable coastal locations, threatening to disrupt economic activity beyond the coast and incurring significant costs for protecting or moving them.

• Socioeconomic disparities create uneven exposures and sensitivities to coastal risks and limit adaptation options for some coastal communities, resulting in the displacement of the most vulnerable from coastal areas.

Challenges of Multiple Jurisdictions From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v

From 2013 National Climate Assessment, Draft Chapter 25, USGCRP, 2013v

High water levels, strong winds, and heavy precipitation from coastal storms already impact coastal areas.

Warming ocean waters raise sea level through thermal expansion which will result in more frequent and extensive coastal flooding and stronger coastal storms.

• Barrier islands are being significantly altered due to erosion, overwash and new inlets created by strong coastal storms

• Sea level rise will increase the risks to populations in low-lying coastal areas and will lead to permanent inundation of low-lying areas, more frequent storm surge flooding and increased beach erosion

• Loss of coastal wetlands and salt marshes will reduce species diversity

4ClimAID, 2011

Coastal ZonesKey Climate Impacts in the Northeast

ClimAID, 2011

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New York City Adaptation Process

Source: NPCC, 2010

Stakeholder Task Force

CCATF

City-wide Sustainability Office OLTPS

Expert PanelNPCC

CWW

P

T

E

Mayor

City Agencies- Regional Authorities- Private Stakeholders

Integration across

Sector-specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transportation (T)

- Policy (P) - Water & Waste (WW)

- Communications (C)

University scholars and private sector experts

- Social, biological, and physical scientists

- Legal and insurance experts

- Risk management professionals

Leadership

Coordination

Implementation

Climate Science

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• In 2009, the Panel produced a set of climate projections specific to New York City region

• Full report published by New York Academy of Sciences in 2010

• New York City Codified NPCC in August 2012 legislation, requiring regular climate science updates

Mayor Bloomberg convened the First New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC1) in 2008. The NPCC – leading climate and social scientists and risk management experts – worked to identify future climate risks facing New York City

First New York City Panel on Climate Change

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Flexible Adaptation Pathways

Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue

Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response

Source: NPCC, 2010

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1. Identify current and future climate hazards

2. Conduct inventory of infrastructure and assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities

3. Characterize risk

4. Develop initial list of strategies

5. Identify opportunities for coordination

6. Prioritize strategies

7. Prepare and implement Resilience Plans

8. Monitor and reassess

Steps – Assess and Implement

NPCC, 2010

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Framing Adaptation

Types• Management/operations• Infrastructure – physical

components of each sector• PolicyAdministrative Groups• Private vs. public

organizations• Local/municipal, county,

state, national

• Reduce the level of physical, social, and economic impacts of climate

• Take advantage of new opportunities

Level of Efforts• Incremental action• Large-scale shifts

Timing• Short term <5 yrs; medium term

5-15 yrs; long term >15 years• Abrupt Changes - tipping

points/policy triggers

ClimAID, 2011

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Pre-Hurricane Sandy Adaptation Actions

NPCC, 2013

• Actions already underway in New York City to mitigate the impacts of climate risks– Planting over 300 Greenstreets,

vegetation that absorbs stormwater – Securing citywide high-resolution

LiDAR elevation data, which helps to identify the most vulnerable area

– Incorporating sea level rise into the City's Comprehensive Waterfront Plan

– NYC Office of Emergency Management launched enhanced emergency response and preparedness programs

• Post Sandy intensifying efforts

Hurricane Sandy

• Storm timing coincided almost exactly with astronomically high, high tide

• Tropical-storm-force winds extended 1,000 miles from end to end, making it more than three times the size of Hurricane Katrina

• Storm surge combined with high tide created a “storm tide” of over 14 feet above Mean Lower Low Water at the Battery

• Unusual storm track, Sandy turned sharply west just as it was reaching another peak of intensity

Storm Forecast Well In Advance 11SIRR, 2013CCSR, 2013

Hurricane SandyLinks to Climate Change Science

Median Minimum Sea Ice Extent 1979-2009

• It is not possible to attribute any single extreme event such as Hurricane Sandy to climate change

• Sea level rise already occurring in the New York City area (~1.1 feet since 1900), in part related to climate change, increased the extent and magnitude of coastal flooding during the storm

• Intensity of severe hurricanes appears to be on rise and may increase in future***

• Melting sea-ice may be changing pattern of jet stream, making westward-turning storm tracks more likely***

***Areas of active research

Sea level rise at Battery, NYC 1900-2009, NPCC

North Atlantic SSTs and Hurricane Power Dissipation Index 1950-2005, Emanuel

Sources: CCSR, 2013 12

New York City issued mandatory evacuation of Zone A on October 28, 2012

Out-of-state utility crews brought in before the storm

MTA closed down operations, moved rolling

stock, and boarded and placed sandbags at

subway entrances to protect against flooding

Evacuation – Not complete 43 people died in NYC 80%

from drowningUtilities – Not prepared

4 million without power in the tri-state region

MTA/DOT – Major flooding7 subway lines under East River,

3 tunnels closed

MTA

LIPA

Hurricane Sandy Immediate Preparations

13SIRR, 2013

Climate Change and a Global City 2001

The Potential Consequences of

Climate Variability and Change

Metro East Coast (MEC) July 2001

Hurricane Sandy Forecasting the Impacts

South Ferry Subway Station

Beach erosion and boardwalk damage in the Rockaways

Extensive power outages

Many impacts forecast well in advance

Spencer Platt Getty Images

Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems

and Vulnerable Communities

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Hard-hit areas

Sources: CCSR, 2013, MTA, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy Unforeseen Impacts

• Hospital Evacuations– Flooding and power outages forced the

evacuation of 6,500 people from nursing homes and hospitals

• Gas Shortages– Severe breakdowns in the supply chain serving

New York caused by storm damage to coastal infrastructure led to fuel shortages that lasted weeks

• Fires– Over 100 homes and businesses were destroyed

by fire, often electrical in nature, sparked by the interaction of electricity and seawater. Narrowly flooded streets hampered emergency response.

SIRR, 2013

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• The 2013 NPCC Climate Risk Information Report (CRI) provides new climate change projections and future coastal flood risk maps for New York City

• Both “A Stronger, More Resilient New York” and CRI reports released on June 11, 2013

After Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg re-convened the NPCC in January to provide updated climate risk information for the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR)

Second New York City Panel on Climate Change

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Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

• CCRUN conducts stakeholder-driven research that reduces climate-related vulnerability and advances opportunities for adaptation in the urban Northeast

• CCRUN scientists lead the technical team that developed the projections for the NPCC2 report

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• Illustrate a broad-based acceleration of climate change in coming decades

• Show significant climate risks for New York City, especially heat waves, extreme precipitation events, and coastal flooding

• Valid for New York City and the metropolitan region

• By 2050s, projected changes include– Annual temperature increase up to 6.5°F– Mean precipitation change between +5 and +10 percent– Sea level rise up to 31 inches – 1-in-100 year flood may occur approximately 5 times more often

with the high-estimate for sea level rise – More likely than not increase in the number of the most intense

hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin. – Unknown how the total number of tropical cyclones will change in

the North Atlantic Basin

Recently released (June 2013) climate change projections…

Key Findings for Future Projected Changes

NPCC, 2013

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• Increase coastal edge elevations – The City will increase the height of vulnerable coastal edges with bulkheads,

beach nourishment and other measures over time

• Minimize upland wave zones – The City will work to provide significant attenuation of waves—that is, to

knock down waves, or diminish their velocity—both off and onshore, before they reach neighborhoods

• Protect against storm surge– The City will use flood protection structures, such as floodwalls, levees, and

local storm surge barriers built, where possible, to the 100-year flood elevation with an additional allowance for future sea level rise

• Improve coastal design– The City will study how natural areas and open space can be used to protect

adjacent neighborhoods and maintain neighborhood quality of life, and will work to manage its own waterfront assets more effectively

• Governance – Developing partnerships to improve permitting and study innovative coastal

protections.

NYC SIRR Key Findings for Coastal Protection

SIRR, 2013

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NYC SIRR Key Findings for Insurance

• Strategy: Target affordability solutions to low-income policyholders– The combined impact of Biggert-Waters and the remapping of New York

City’s floodplain will result in significant increases in flood insurance premiums, which many New Yorkers, especially the city’s most vulnerable populations—including those with low, or on fixed, incomes—will not be able to afford.

• Strategy: Define resiliency standards for existing buildings– Sandy highlighted the limited information currently available on risk-

reduction techniques short of elevation, which is impractical, financially infeasible or physically impossible for building types common in New York City and other dense urban areas.

• Strategy: Incorporate resiliency standards in insurance underwriting– Measures that reduce a property’s risk of damage should be reflected in a

commensurate reduction in the cost of insurance

• Strategy: Expand pricing options for policyholders– Flexible pricing options can encourage more people, especially those not

required to carry insurance, to purchase coverage that suits their needs.

• Strategy: Improve awareness and education about insurance– Consumers must be aware of both their risks and the coverage their

insurance policies include or exclude.SIRR, 2013

Hurricane Sandy as Tipping Point

• Leadership in responding to climate change

• Municipal, state, and federal alignment

• Climate science in place and in time

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Need for federal coordination that recognizes local and state initiatives

References and Links• Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (www.ccrun.org)• NYSERDA ClimAID (www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid) • New York City Panel on Climate Change report available online at (

www.nyas.org) • Urban Climate Change Research Network (www.uccrn.org) • ClimateYou (www.climateyou.org)

– “Learn, Share, Act” about climate change

NPCC

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