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NUREG/CR-1856 P N L-3662 Vol. 1 An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates Around 52 Nuclear Power Plant Sites Analysis and Evaluation Prepared by T. Urbanik II Texas Transportation Institute Pacific Northwest Laboratory Prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

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Page 1: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

NUREG/CR-1856P N L-3662Vol. 1

An Analysis of Evacuation TimeEstimates Around 52 Nuclear PowerPlant Sites

Analysis and Evaluation

Prepared by T. Urbanik II

Texas Transportation Institute

Pacific Northwest Laboratory

Prepared forU.S. Nuclear RegulatoryCommission

Page 2: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

NOTICE

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored byan agency of the United States Government. Neither the

United States Government nor any agency thereof, or any oftheir employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, orassumes any legal liablity or responsibility for any thirdparty's use, or the results of such use, of any information,apparatus product or process disclosed in this report, orrepresents that its use by such third party would not infringeprivately owned rights.

Available from

Division ofU.

GPO Sales ProgramTechnical Information and Document ControlS. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Washington, D. C. 20555

Printed copy price: $5.50

and

National Technical Information ServiceSpringfield, Virginia 22161

Page 3: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

NUREG/CR-1856PNL-3662Vol. 1

An Analysis of Evacuation TimeEstimates Around 52 Nuclear PowerPlant Sites

Analysis and Evaluation

Manuscript Completed: October 1980Date Published: May 1981

Prepared byT. Urbanik II, TTIA.E. Desrosiers, PNL Project Manager

Texas Transportation InstituteThe Texas AEtM University SystemCollege Station, TX 77843

Pacific Northwest LaboratoryRichland, WA 99352

Prepared forDivision of Emergency PreparednessOffice of Inspection and EnforcementU.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionWashington, D.C. 20555NRC FIN No. B2311

Page 4: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates
Page 5: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

ABSTRACT

On November 29, 1979, the NRC sent a letter to 52 nuclear power plants requestingevacuation time estimates for 10 sectors within a 10-mile radius of each plant. Therequirements for these evacuation times are contained in NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, andinclude such factors as population density, weather conditions, warning time, responsetime and confirmation time. Fifty responses were received. The analysis of thesefindingsare presented for review.

iii

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Page 7: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ........ ...................

Qualitative Analysis ..... .................

Quantitative Analysis ...............

Median Times for 10-Mile Radius ...........

Medians by Rating ...........

Medians by Total Permanent Population . .

Medians by Sector Permanent Population . .

Median Times by Distance ...........

FEMA Assessments ...... ..................

Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References ........ .....................

Appendix A--Evaluation Forms for Individual Plants .

Appendix B--Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates for

. . . . . . . . . . 3

• . . . . . . . . . 7

. . . . . . . . . . 13

. . . . . . . . . . 13

. . . . . . . . . . 15

. . . . . . . . . . 18

*. . . . . . . .. . 23

*. . . . . . . .. . 25

*. . . . . . . .. . 27

*. . . . . . . .. . A-1

Individual Plants . B-1

Appendix C--Definitions of Evacuation Time Components ........

Appendix D--Evaluation Forms for FEMA Assessments ..........

Appendix E--Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates for FEMA Assessments

" C-1

" D-1

" E-1

v

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LIST OF TABLES

1. Names of Plants Included in the Study ......... ............... 2

2. Evaluation of Evacuation Time Estimate ........ .............. 4

3. Results of Subjective Evaluation ..... ....... ................. 6

4. Evacuation Time Estimates ............. ................... 8

5. Evacuation Time (Hours) Statistics by Component for 10-Mile Radius. 10

6. Median Evacuation Time (Hours) by Rating for 10-Mile Radius ........ 14

7. Median Evacuation Time (Hours) by Total Population Groups for10-Mile Radius .......... ............................ .. 16

8. Median Evacuation Time (Hours) by Sector Permanent Population Groups. 17

9. Median Evacuation Time (Hours) by Sector Permanent Population Groups. 19

10. Median Evacuation Time (Hours) by Distance ..... ............ ... 21

vii

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INTRODUCTION

This report presents the findings of evacuation time estimates requested

at 52 nuclear power plants by a November 29, 1979 letter from the Nuclear

Regulatory Commission. The letter from Brian Grimes, Director of Emergency

Preparedness Task Group, requested estimates of evacuation times for ten

sectors within a radius of about ten miles. Factors to be considered in the

analysis included population (permanent, transient and special facilities),

weather conditions, warning time, response time, and confirmation time.

Planning for evacuation as a protective measure is not a new concept in

emiergency planning. NUREG-75/111 (I) contained as a planning objective an

analysis of estimates of the time required to carry out evacuation

procedures. The planning objectives also included the development of

evacuation plans for the low population zones (generally about 2 miles).

Subsequently, NUREG-0396 (2) recommended that NUREG-75/111 should be applied

by responsible government officials in larger emergency planning zones

(generally about 10 miles) (2). The requirements of the November 29, 1979

letter referenced above are currently included in NUREG-0654 (3) which is the

current interim guidance. These requirements are currently under review and

revision.

The 50 responses represented in this analysis include only 49 separate

sites as James A. Fitzpatrick and Nine Mile Point plants both occupy the same

site. Two plants did not provide estimates. The names of the 52 plants

included in this study and the dates of the reports submitted are included in

Table 1.

Volume II of this study contains summaries of the evacuation estimates

and maps of the plume emergency planning zones around each reactor.

1

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TABLE 1: NAMES OF PLANTS INCLUDED IN STUDY

1.

2.3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

Arkansas (1-31-80)

Beaver Valley (1-31-80)

Big Rock Point (6-1-80)

Browns Ferry (3-20-80)

Brunswick (no response)

Calvert Cliffs (1-29-80)

Cooper (1-31-80)

Crystal River (1-31-80)

Davis Besse (8-13-80)

D. C. Cook (4-1-80)

Diablo Canyon (4-1-80)

Dresden (1-31-80)

Duane Arnold (1-31-80)

Farley (2-4-80)

Fitzpatrick (1-31-80)

Ft. Calhoun (10-2-80)

Ft. St. Vrain (2-80)

Ginna (1-31-80)

Haddam Neck (3-1-80)

Hatch (2-4-80)

Indian Point (1-31-80)

Kewaunee (1-29-80)

LaCrosse (1-31-80)

LaSalle (1-31-80)

Maine Yankee (5-23-80)

McGuire (1-31-80)

27.

28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

36.

37.

38.

39.

40.

41.

42.

43.

44.

45.

46.

47.

48.

49.

50.

51.

52.

Millstone (3-1-80)

Monticello (4-10-80)

Nine Mile Point (1-31-80)

North Anna (2-6-80)

Oconee (1-31-80)

Oyster Creek (1-31-80)

Palisades (6-1-80)

Peach Bottom (1-31-80)

Pilgrim (1-31-80)

Point Beach (3-26-80)

Prairie Island (4-10-80)

Quad Cities (1-31-80)

Rancho Seco (1-31-80)

Robinson (no response)

Saint Lucie (7-17-80)

Salem (1-31-80)

San Onofre (1-31-80)

Sequoyah (3-20-80)

Surry (2-6-80)

Three Mile Island (1-31-80.)

Trojan (1-31-80)

Turkey Point (7-17-80)

Vermont Yankee (1-31-80)

Yankee Rowe (1-31-80)

Zimmer (8-18-80)

Zion (1-31-80)

NOTES: Date of report indicated in parentheses. Fitzpatrick andNine Mile Point occupy the same site; estimates are onlyconsidered once in the analyses.

2

Page 13: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

The first analysis conducted on each evacuation time estimate submittal

was a qualitative assessment of the analysis. The standard for comparison

was the model plan requirements developed in a separate report entitled

"Analysis of Time Required for Evacuation in Emergency Planning Zones Around

Nuclear Power Plants" (4).

The evaluation methology used was a four part (excellent, adequate,

poor, none) subjective scale using the above mentioned criteria. Each of the

items to be discussed subsequently were given a rating as follows. If the

criterion was not addressed, the rating given would be none. If the

criterion is addressed, but given inadequate consideration, a rating of poor

would be assigned. Those submittals providing at least minimum acceptable

consideration of the factor would be given an adequate rating. Finally,

those analyses that are clearly of high quality and completeness would

receive an excellent rating.

Table 2 presents the rating form used which lists the various items

considered in the evaluation. The last criterion considered is an overall

assessment of the evacuation time estimate. The overall rating is not a

simple summation of the individual factor ratings because the importance of

the items considered varies from item to item. Although this analysis

requires professional judgement in determining ratings, the process does

indicate the area or areas where the reviewer considers the plan to be strong

or weak; therefore, a basis exists for resolving weaknesses in plans with

poor ratings. Some analyses for which inadequate documentation existed

received a poor rating based on the inability to adequately rate the

analysis. Table 2 also presents the distribution of ratings by criteria.

3

Page 14: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 2: EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map 6 30 3 .11

B. Assumptions 11 25 9 5C. Methodology 11 25 10 4

Demand Estimation11 29 2 7

A. Permanent Population 1- 2 1

B. Transient Population 6 23 2 19C. Special Population 8 33 3 6

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network 9 25 3 13B. Capacity of Segment 7 22 3 18

Analysis

A Components Considered 6 34 8 2Adverse Condition Considered 7 25 15 3

Overall 5 28 17 0

NOTE: The above numbers indicate the number of sites receiving the ratingindicated. The two sites not providing estimates are not included.

4

Page 15: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

Table 3 indicates the overall rating for each of the study sites. Appendix A

presents the detailed analyses for each site.

It should be noted that plans receiving an excellent overall rating

should not individually be considered as model approaches. Although an

excellent response exceeded the average response, in all cases some portions

of their approach could be improved upon. Taken as a group, however, the

plans rated as excellent represent the state-of-the art in developing

evacuation time estimates.

5

Page 16: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 3: RESULTS OF SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION

Overall Rating

Excellent Adequate Poor No Response

Diablo Canyon

Indian Point

Pi i grim

Rancho Seco

Trojan

Big Rock Point

Cooper

Crystal River

D. C. Cook

Dresden

Duane Arnold

Fitzpatrick

Ft. St. Vrain

Ginna

Haddam Neck

LaSalle

Maine Yankee

McGuire

Millstone

Monticello

Nine Mile Point

Oyster Creek

Palisades

Peach Bottom

Point Beach

Prairie Island

Quad Cities

St. Lucie

Turkey Point

Vermont Yankee

Yankee Rowe

Zimmer

Zion

Arkansas

Beaver Valley

Browns Ferry

Calvert Cliffs

Davis Besse

Farley

Ft. Calhoun

[latch

Kewaunee

LaCrosse

North Anna

Oconee

Salem*

San Onofre

Sequoyah

Surry

Three Mile Island

Brunswick

Robinson

*See footnote on page A-44.

6

Page 17: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

The number of plant sites evaluated in the quantitative analysis was 40.

Fitzpatrick and Nine Mile Point were only considered once in the analysis.

The two plants not providing estimates were not considered in the analysis.

Four plants (Browns Ferry, Diablo Canyon, San Onofre and Three Mile Island)

were not considered because the responses were not in a format compatible

with the analysis. It should be noted that although Diablo Canyon received a

an excellent rating, it's response was incompatible with the analysis format

used. Five sites (Davis Besse, Ft. Calhoun, St. Lucie, Turkey Point, and

Zimmer) were not included in the statistical analysis because their responses

were received too late.

Table 4 is the form used to summaarize the results found in each

evacuation time report submitted. The completeness of data varied greatly

among reports. As will subsequently be seen, some evacuation time components

were omitted frequently in the estimates submitted. The individual summaries

are presented in Appendix B.

It must be cautioned that the data submitted was not in the format shown

in Table 4. In some cases adjustments or interpretations had to be made to

put the data in the format shown. Furthermore, the assumptions underlying

the data are not consistent. The following results must be considered as

broad indicators of evacuation times at the various plants.

It is appropriate to note at this point that median rather than mean

values are used for comparisons in this report. The reason for selecting

median values is that in some cases extremely high estimates for a few sites

results in a mean value that is not totally representative of the data.

7

Page 18: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 4: EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

(D,{- (u- (V- Q- .- .,- .- d)-.LAl CLn Lfl (nQ ww d.4.J 0 0 0 0 L-- -. j-ci• I--

• L- CA U 0 V) . 0 .0 - 0 00. 0. iv F- a) Win W Wi WC U . "- 0-- (u' c "-

V)- - - 0 .- - ,-0 00 40 * ac->r•' u' r-{-.- 0 c • , 4-- •4J ,,1L : L,,• 0 L ,L ,,'al JC> a)-4 4.J a) -: • 0 Ca#.• 4J .r CL LJ QD..- a- r- .-

U 0.L) 0.L.- E L- 0 - 0 0 •0 a0ro E _- -Lo a .- rc.L- 0 4-'L to a •.. 0c. L (.-, c.W

Q- CL) S.=C l a__ : CLa) Q) (Ln '-v id) a) LO ) u 4-J 0 cn.- iL vwvs- ~a)L 0 r- C 'LA i ~ CL O~ 0 rZ oa ~>,•=- F-> ,a 1- 0 s- ,ts (a (a• • • ••- •o L> o , ,

>) CL E E EW a) r- c ~ a)o a) ~ 2-1 uLLJ 0Ls -> mv M > C (u <r0)

0)0 = 0 a- 0 '<CL C-0 C- 0L

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

--------------------------------

Page 19: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

The mean permanent resident population at 40 sites was 58,000. The

median population was 30,000 with the range being 6000 to 282,000. It should

be noted that eight plants used in the analysis did not report population

estimates and NUREG 0348 (5) population values for 1970 were used.

The evacuation estimates were requested to be provided for 2-, 5-, and

10-mile radii from the plant. The estimates were also requested for 90°

sectors, except for the 2-mile radius in which 180* sectors were specified.

The remainder of the analysis will center around the 10-mile emergency

planning zone. In addition, the effect of distance will. be examined by

looking at the results by distance.

Median Times for 10-Mile Radius

The 40 respondents reported results for a total 138 sectors. Not all

sites had 4 sectors due to a variety of reasons. Some sites did not report

on all sectors due to multistate jurisdictions, some of which did not assist

in the assessment. Some sites being adjacent to water bodies do not have 4

sectors on which to estimate land based evacuation. Those plants considering

water based evacuations had their over-water evacuation times tallied with

special populations so as not to distort land evacuation times.

A total of 109 of the 142 sectors had population data reported. The

mean sector population was 17,000. However, the median population was 5000,

and 75 percent of the sectors had populations less than 15,000. The range in

sector population was 0 to 151,000.

Table 5 presents the results of the analysis of time components for the

10-mile radius evacuation. Appendix C defines the terms used. It should

also be noted that separate estimates have been made for adverse weather

conditions. In most cases, adverse weather conditions resulted in increased

9

Page 20: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 5: EVACUATION TIME (HOURS) STATISTICS BYCOMPONENT FOR 10-MILE RADIUS

TimeComponent* Minimum 25% Median 75% Maximum #Sectors Mean

NOTIFY 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 6.0 116 1.9

PPRNC 0.1 1.0 1.8 4.0 8.3 108 2.7

PPRAC 0.2 1.3 2.8 6.0 16.2 100 4.1

TPRNC 0.4 1.3 3.0 3.5 3.7 11 2.4

TPRAC 0.6 0.8 1.7 4.1 4.2 7 2.4

GPTNC 1.0 2.9 5.0 8.0 21.0 111 5.3

GPTAC 1.3 3.0 5.2 8.8 18.3 91 6.4

CONFIRM 0.6 1.0 2.0 4.0 24.0 75 3.5

SPRNC 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.9 24.0 44 3.7

SPRAC 0.6 2.4 3.2 8.0 10.2 28 4.7

*NOTIFYPPRNCPPRACTPRNC

NOTIFICATION TIMEPERMANENT POPULATIONPERMANENT POPULATIONTRANSIENT POPULATION

RESPONSERESPONSERESPONSE

TIMETIMETIME

NORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSTPRAC = TRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME

GPTNC = GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME NORMAL CONDITIONSGPTAC = GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ADVERSE CONDITIONSCONFIRM = CONFIRMATION TIMESPRNC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITIONSSPRAC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIONS

SEE APPENDIX C FOR DEFINITION.

10

Page 21: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

response time. However, at some sites, the adverse weather alternative was

assumed to occur only in the winter when transient populations would be low

or nonexistent. Therefore, in some cases, adverse weather response time was

estimated to be less than for normal conditions when large transient

populations would be possible. Although this approach is not recommended, it

nevertheless was the approach used by some. The proper approach would have

been to consider other adverse conditions (e.g., rain) under peak demand.

Estimates for total notification time varied from 0.3 hours to a maximum

of 6.0 hours. A few of the studies looked at the interaction between warning

time and response time. A few studies estimated the distribution for warning

and preparation in determining response times. Others added total warning

time plus response time and indicated that the result overestimated the total

time required because some people would begin evacuating before others are

warned.

Further study is warranted in examining the interaction between

components because of the uncertainty concerning the effect on total

evacuation time. Improved notification systems may pose problems at some

sites since they could induce traffic volumes that exceed the capacity of the

roadway system. Thus, even though notification times were greatly reduced,

evacuation times might be largely unaffected or even increase. Such

situations would require careful traffic management in order to avoid massive

traffic jams. One satisfactory solution for these sites might be immediate

(15 minute) notification followed by phased evacuation in combination with an

effective sheltering program.

The median response time for permanent residents was 1.8 hours for

normal conditions and 2.8 hours for adverse conditions (see PPRNC and PPRAC

11

Page 22: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

in Table 5). The upper limits were 8.3 and 16.2 hours for normal and adverse

conditions respectively.

The median transient population response time was 3.0 hours for normal

conditions and 1.7 hours for adverse conditions (see TPRNC and TPRAC in Table

5). Transient population response time was a time component in only 11

sectors under normal conditions and 7 sectors under adverse conditions.

Maximum values were estimated at 3.7 hours under normal conditions and 4.2

under adverse conditions. As previously indicated, some estimates for

adverse conditions were less because transient populations were expected to

be smaller under adverse conditions which was assumed to be snow. Other

adverse conditions such as rain were not considered.

The median special population response time was 2.7 hours (44 sectors)

for normal conditions and 3.2 hours (28 sectors) for adverse conditions.

Maximum values were 24 hours for normal conditions and 10.2 hours for adverse

conditions. The lower maximum value for adverse conditions results from an

adverse weather estimate not being made for the site reporting the maximum

normal weather time.

As previously indicated, notification plus response time estimates were

summed to estimate the time required (not including confirmation) to clear

the sector after issuance of a warning. As previously indicated, most

estimates include a simple summation of notification and response time which

may overestimate the required time since some people will leave before all

are notified. The median general population evacuation time was 5.0 hours

(111 sectors) under normal conditions and 5.2 hours (91 sectors) under

adverse conditions. Maximum times were 21.0 hours for normal conditions and

27.0 hours for adverse conditions.

12

Page 23: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

Confirmation times ranged from 0.6 hours to 24.0 hours, with the median

being 2.0 hours. Confirmation time estimates were based on many different

assumptions. The effectiveness of confirmation seemed to be questioned by

many. The accuracy of the estimates seems questionable because of the lack

of good data on which to base an estimate.

Medians by Rating

In an earlier section of the report a subjective rating was made and

each of the responses were rated poor, adequate, or excellent. In order to

determine if the results differed by rating, the medians were separately

calculated for each rating class. Fourteen sites (51 sectors) had a poor

rating, 22 sites (73 sectors) had an adequate rating, and 4 sites (15

sectors) had an excellent rating. Table 6 sunmnarizes the evacuation time

means by rating for the various time components. The lower ratings appear to

have generally higher estimates for general population evacuation times.

However, subsequent analysis using the data segregated by rating did not

appear to improve the results observed. The remaining analyses include all

the data including responses receiving a poor rating.

Medians by Total Permanent Population

As indicated earlier, the population distribution while varying from

6000 to 282,000, has a median of only 30,000. A second stratification of the

data, based on total permanent resident population, was therefore made. Five

categories were established as follows:

1. 1 - 20,000

2. 20,000 - 50,000

3. 50,000 - 100,000

13

Page 24: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 6: MEDIAN EVACUATION TIME (HOURS) BY RATING FOR 10-MILE RADIUS

Rating

Poor Adequate Excellent Overall

# of # of # of # of

Component* Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors

NOTIFY 2.0 42 1.8 59 1.5 15 1.6 116

PPRNC 3.0 38 1.5 55 1.4 15 1.8 108

PPRAC 5.0 38 2.0 47 2.1 15 2.8 100

TPRNC 3.0 7 2.3 1 3.1 3 3.0 11

TPRAC 2.7 6 0.8 1 --- -- 1.7 7

GPTNC 6.0 40 5.0 56 4.7 15 5.0 111

GPTAC 7.3 39 4.9 37 4.4 15 5.2 91CONFIRM 2.0 32 2.0 29 2.0 14 .2.0 75SPRNC 2.7 10 1.9 29 7.2 5 2.7 44SPRAC 3.2 9 2.9 14 10.2 5 3.2 28

*NOTIFY = NOTIFICATION TIMEPPRNC = PERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITION!PPRAC = PERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIO?TPRNC = TRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITION!TPRAC = TRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIOl6PTNC = GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME NORMAL CONDITIONGPTAC = GENEkAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ADVERSE CONDITIOICONFIRM = CONFIRMATION TIMESPRNC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITIONSSPRAC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIONS

SEE APPENDIX C FOR DEFINITIONS.

SNSSNSSNS

14

Page 25: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

4. 100,000 - 200,000

5. 200,000 and up

There were 11 sites in category 1, 15 sites in category 2, 8 sites in cate-

gory 3, 3 sites in category 4, and 3 sites in category 5.

Table 7 summarizes the evacuation time estimates for the five population

groups. No clear trends appear in the data. Several other analyses were

performed including deletion of data receiving a poor rating and use of mean

instead of median values. These additional analyses also did not reveal any

consistent trends.

Because the population density could vary by sector, and since no trends

were found based on total population, it was determined that evacuation time

components should be evaluated based on sector population. The following

section examines the data based on sector population.

Medians by Sector Permanent Population

The sector populations were broken into groups for analysis as follows:

1. 1 - 5,000

2. 5,000 - 10,000

3. 10,000 - 25,000

4. 25,000 - 50,000

5. 50,000 - 100,000

6. 100,000 and up

Not all sites reported sector population so that the number of sectors

analyzed is less than for the total population groups.

Table 8 summarizes the medians by sector population. One trend noted in

the data is that permanent population response time (normal and adverse)

15

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TABLE 7: MEDIAN EVACUATION TIME (HOURS) BY TOTAL POPULATIONGROUPS FOR 10-MILE RADIUS

Total Population Total Population Total Population Total Population Total Population Overall1-20,000 20,000-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000-200,000 200,000 and up

Component* # of # of # of # of # of # ofMedian Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors

NOTIFY 3.0 29 1.1 46 2.0 29 2.6 6 1.4 6 1.6 116

PPRNC 3.0 35 3.0 42 1.3 21 1.9 6 3.5 4 1.8 108

PPRAC 4.3 23 2.0 46 1.7 21 2.8 6 5.6 4 2.8 100

TPRNC 3.5 1 2.3 1 1.5 7 3.4 2 --- - 3.0 11

TPRAC --- -- 0.8 1 1.6 4 4.1 2 --- - 1.7 7

GPTNC 4.0 30 3.7 38 5.7 29 5.8 7 5.0 6 5.0 111

GPTAC 4.4 17 3.8 37 5.1 25 7.3 7 6.0 4 5.2 91

CONFIRM 4.4 16 2.0 31 1.0 21 2.0 4 2.0 3 2.0 75

SPRNC 0.8 10 2.4 20 4.0 7 2.8 1 7.2 6 2.7 44

SPRAC 3.0 5 3.2 13 5.0 5 2.8 1 10.2 4 3.2 28

*NOTIFYPPRNCPPRACTPRNCTPRACGPTNCGPTACCONFIRMSPRNCSPRAC

NOTIFICATION TIMEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSEGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONCONFIRMATION TIME

TIMETIMETIMETIMETIMETIME

NORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONS

SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITIONSSPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIONS

SEE APPENDIX C FOR DEFINITIONS.

Page 27: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 8: MEDIAN EVACUATION TIME (HOURS) BY SECTORPERMANENT POPULATION GROUPS

Sector Sector Sector sector Sector SectorPopulation Population Population Population Population Population

0-5,000 5,000-10,000 10,000-25,000 25,000-50,000 50,000-100,000 100,000 and up

Component* # of # # of # of # ofMedian Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors

NOTIFY 2.0 44 1.0 18 1.1 17 2.0 9 1.7 2 1.4 6

PPRNC 1.4 43 1.5 14 1.4 13 3.5 8 4.2 2 3.7 4

PPRAC 1.5 38 2.0 12 1.9 14 5.2 8 4.8 2 5.8 4

TPRNC 3.5 1 2.5 2 3.0 5 1.3 2 3.4 1 --- -

TPRAC --- -- 1.7 1 2.3 4 1.5 1 4.1 1 --- -

GPTNC 3.9 42 6.5 17 4.3 14 5.3 8 7.6 2 6.6 6

GPTAC 4.4 34 4.5 11 4.5 13 5.7 7 8.5 2 7.1 4

CONFIRM 2.2 31 2.0 10 1.0 11 3.5 7 2.0 1 2.0 3

SPRNC 0.8 8 1.9 10 2.7 7 4.0 5 3.7 1 7.2 6

SPRAC 2.0 4 3.1 4 3.1 4 5.0 4 4.7 1 10.2 4

I-a

*NOTIFYPPRNCPPRACTPRNCTPRACGPTNCGPTACCONFIRM

NOTIFICATION TIMEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSEGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONCONFIRMATION TIME

TIMETIMETIMETIMETIMETIME

NORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CUNDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONS

SPRNC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITIONSSPRAC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIONS

SEE APPENDIX C FOR DEFINITIONS.

Page 28: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

appears greater for sectors above 25,000 than below 25,000. Another trend is

that special population response time (normal and adverse) appears to

increase with increasing sector populations. In order to further evaluate

these trends, the data was combined into two groups. Table 9 summarizes the

medians with only two sector population groups: above 25,000 and below

25,000. The trend toward increased permanent population response time

appears fairly strong. Figure 1 shows the actual distribution of responses

for the two population groups. The under 25,000 group shows a long tail to

the right distribution typical of the data in general. The over 25,000

population group shows an extremely strong tendency toward its median (and

therefore rmiean value due to the symetrical distribution) value.

It should also be noted in Table 9 that the smaller difference between

the GPTNC for the two groups may be explained in part by a higher transient

population response time for the under 25,000 population group. The special

population response times also continue to show a much larger value for the

over 25,000 population group.

Median Times by Distance

Table 10 summarizes the median evacuation time components for the 2-,

5-, and 10-mile radii from the plants. As would be expected, the times

increase with increasing distance. What is surprising is that permanent

population response time increase is less than proportional to the distance

and that general population evacuation time increase is nearly proportional

to distance for the increase in area from five to ten miles. Further study

of the effect of distance is warranted.

18

Page 29: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 9: MEDIAN EVACUATION TIME (HOURS) BY SECTORPERMANENT.POPULATION GROUPS

Sector SectorPopulation Population0-25,000 25,000 and up

Component* # of # ofMedian Sectors Median Sectors

NOTIFY 1.3 79 1.5 17

PPRNC 1.4 70 3.7 14

PPRAC 1.9 64 5.5 14

TPRNC 3.1 8 1.5 3

TPRAC 1.7 5 2.8 2.

GPTNC 5.0 73 5.7 16

GPTAC 4.5 58 6.7 13

CONFIRM 2.0 52 2.0 11

SPRNC 1.9 25 6.1 12

SPRAC 3.1 12 5.0 9

*NOTIFYPPRNCPPRACTPRNCTPRACGPTNCGPTACCONFIRM

NOTIFICATION TIMEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSEGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONCONFIRMATION TIME

TIMETIMETIMETIMETIMETIME

NORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONS

SPRNC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME NORMAL CONDITIONSSPRAC = SPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TIME ADVERSE CONDITIONS

SEE APPENDIX C FOR DEFINITIONS.

19

Page 30: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

LU

0LU

Z-

0

LUJ,L-,

C>

SECTOR POPULATION LESS THAN 25,000

MEDIAN = 1.4 hoursMEAN = 2.5 hours

0

0 1 4 5 7 8 9 10

PERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME (HOURS)

SECTOR POPULATION GREATER THAN 25,000

MEDIAN = 3.7 hoursMEAN = 3.7 hours

10-

~Ln 5-

I I

00 1

22

I I I3 4 5

I I I I I6 7 8 9 10

PERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIME (HOURS)

FIGURE 1: PERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSE TIMVEBY SECTOR POPULATION GROUP

20

Page 31: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

TABLE 10: MEDIAN EVACUATION TIME (HOURS) BY DISTANCE

Radius = 2 mi. Radius = 5 mi. Radius = 10 mi.

Conlponent* # of # of # ofMedian Sectors Median Sectors Median Sectors

NOTIFY 0.6 48 1.0 109 1.6 116

PPRNC 0.7 45 1.0 103 1.8 108

PPRAC 1.0 44 1.8 97 2.8 100

TPRNC 0.2 3 1.9 7 3.0 11

TPRAC 0.3 2 2.0 4 1.7 7

GPTNC 1.5 45 2.2 100 5.0 111

GPTAC 1.7 37 2.5 83 5.2 91

CONFIRM 0.8 37 1.0 74 2.0 75

SPRNC 1.5 9 2.5 24 2.7 44

SPRAC 2.0 8 2.3 18 3.2 28

*NOTIFYPPRNCPPRACTPRNCTPRACGPTNCGPTACCONFIRMSPRNCSPRAC

NOTIFICATI ON TIMEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSEPERMANENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSETRANSIENT POPULATION RESPONSEGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONGENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIONCONFIRMATION TIMESPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE TSPECIAL POPULATION RESPONSE T

TIMETIMETIMETIMETIMETIME

NORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONSADVERSE CONDITIONS

IME NORMAL CONDITIONSIME ADVERSE CONDITIONS

SEE APPENDIX C FOR DEFINITIONS.

21

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Page 33: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

FEMA ASSESSMENTS

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was requested' by the

Nuclear Regulatory Commission to make several independent assessments of

evacuation times around reactor sites which are located in proximity to high

population densities. Initially, twelve assessments have been made by three

contractors. Six of theassessments correspond to plant sites evaluated in

this report. The six sites are Beaver Valley, Indian Point, Maine Yankee,

Millstone, Three Mile Island, and Zion.

It should be noted that the evaluation framework prescribed by FEMA was

more general than that required by the NRC. For example, the FEMA

contractors were not required to follow the sector configuration specified by

NRC. The zone configuration used by the FEMA contractors generally

considered political subdivisions, demographic considerations and roadway

locations. One contractor also used a radius of exactly 10 miles in

developing time estimates. This was done to allow comparison of similar

evacuation areas among the sites evaluated.

The principal difference between licensee submittals and the FEMA

assessments is that the licensee submittals represented a much wider range of

techniques. Nevertheless, some licensee submittals were in fact done by two

of the FEMA contractors. The third FEMA contractor also used a subcontractor

that had prepared a licensee estimate.

The methodologies used by the FEMA contractors follows closely the

transportation planning techniques recommended in Reference 4. The primary

difference in the FEMA estimates and the techniques used by many of the

better licensee responses concerns the interaction between the various

evacuation time components.

23

Page 34: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

All the FEMA contractors elected to use distributions for the various

time components and combine them statistically. Two things, however, are not

completely clear-cut. First, little empirical data exists for developing the

distributions and that data which does exist is very limited. Second, it is

not completely clear whether using distributions increases or decreases the

evacuation time estimate. The fact that distributions allow some evacuees to

begin moving should reduce total evacution time. Furthermore, one FEMA

contractor concluded that gradual loading of the street system reduced total

evacuation time at one site studied due to the roadway configuration.

However, in some cases gradual loading could increase total evacuation times

due to assumed longer times to prepare and depart, thus underutilizing

roadway capacity.

24

Page 35: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the analysis of the evacuation time estimates provided by

the various licensees defines the range of times that can reasonably be

expected to occur during evacuations of the emergency planning zones. Given

the variety of methodologies and assumptions used, it is ill-advised to draw

any strong conclusions concerning the factors affecting evacuation time.

For exagiple, the variation in analytical methods may confound the trends

observed for the effect of sector population and evacuation distance on

evacuation times. However, with further refinement and consistent

application of analysis techniques, it will be possible to ascertain the

limiting factors in evacuation times.

25

Page 36: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates
Page 37: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

REFERENCES

1. NUREG 75/111, Guide and Checklist for Development and Evaluation of State

and Local Government Radiological Emergency Response Plans in Support

of Fixed Nuclear Facilities, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,

Revision 1, December 1974.*

2. NUREG-0396, Planning Basis for the Development of State and Local

Government Radiological Emergency Response Plans in Support of Light

Water Nuclear Power Plants, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,

December 1978. *

3. NUREG-0654, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological

Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power

Plants (for Interim Use and Comment), U.S. Nuclear Regulatory

Commission, January 1980. (Presently available as NUREG-0654, Rev. 1)**

4. Thomas Urbanik, Arthur Desrosiers, Michael K. Lindell, and C. Richard

Schuller, Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for

Emergency Planning Zones, Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers,

June 1980, BHARC-401/80-017.

5. NUREG-0348, Demographic Statistics Pertaining to Nuclear Power Reactor

Sites, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, October 1979. *

*Available for purchase from the National Technical Information Service,Springfield, VA 22161.

**Available free upon written request to the Division of Technical Informationand Document Control, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555.

27

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Page 39: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

APPENDIX A

EVALUATION FORMS FOR INDIVIDUAL PLANTS

A.-i

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Page 41: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Arkansas

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. AssumptionsC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population -

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall -

A- 3

Page 42: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

geaver Valley

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map _ _ XB. AssumptionsC. Methodology _'---

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population - XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

*Lack of complete documentation makes it difficultaccuracy of the plan. The overall methodology isis no evaluation for 900 sectors.

to assess theexcellent, there

A-4

Page 43: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Big Rock Point

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions x-C. Methodology --

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population - -- -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network- X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall x

A-5

Page 44: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Browns Ferry

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. AssumptionsC. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - XB. Transient Population - XC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall x

A-6

Page 45: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Brunswick*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area MapB. AssumptionsC. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent PopulationB. Transient PopulationC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of NetworkB. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components ConsideredB. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall

*No Response

A-7

Page 46: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Calvert Cliffs

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map - _

B. Assumptions -

C. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population X-

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered --

Overall X

A-8

Page 47: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Cooper

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions X

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network --- _-

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall *

*Time estimates provided for Nebraska side only.

A-9

Page 48: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Crystal River

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions - XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network -X

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered - --

Overall X

A- 10

Page 49: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Davis Besse

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X -

B. Transient Population -

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network -

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered - -

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall x

A-11

Page 50: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Donald C. Cook

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population -C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysi s

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered .. X.-

Overall X

A- 12

Page 51: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Diablo Canyon

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X -

B. Assumptions -

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population X

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment - -

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered _

Overall X

A- 13

Page 52: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Dresden

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall X

A- 14

Page 53: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Duane Arnold

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions X

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B, Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A- 15

Page 54: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Farley

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-16

Page 55: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

iFitzpatrick

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map - -

B. Assumptions T--C. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population ---

C. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall X

'Same location as Nine Mile Point.2Adequate methodology, not actually reported.

A-17

Page 56: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Ft Calhoun

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions - - XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - XB. Transient Population -X -

C. Special Population - -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network- -

B. Capacity of Segment _.X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XAdverse Condition Considered -

Overall X*

*Note: The rating is based on data submitted for Nebraska side. An estimatewas provided for the Iowa side with little documentation. The Iowarating would be poor for all items.

A-18

Page 57: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Ft. St. Vrain

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions - XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population X

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment - -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall -

A- 19

Page 58: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Ginna

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions X

C. Methodology. X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network - -

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-20

Page 59: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Haddam Neck

I tem Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map - xB. Assumptions -.

C. Methodology -

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent PopulationB. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall -

A-21

Page 60: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Hatch

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions -

C. Methodology - X.

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - X

B. Transient Population -

C. Special Population - X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network -

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-22

Page 61: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Indian Point

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall -

A-23

Page 62: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Kewaunee

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - X-

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population - -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X -

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered - ..-

Overall X

A-24

Page 63: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

La Crosse

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population X

C. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network - - XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall X

A-25

Page 64: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

LaSalle

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-26

Page 65: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Maine Yankee

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions - X

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population - -

C. Special Population

Traffic RoutingX

A. Map of Network -

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analys i s

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall - -

Note: Data not reported in detail.

A-27

Page 66: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

McGui re

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population X

C. Special Population - --

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered - X

B. Adverse Condition Considered - X

Overall X

Note: Results not reported in cummulative format as requested.

A-28

Page 67: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Millstone

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology -X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population -X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X•. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-29

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EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Monticello

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions -

C. Methodology A

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall X

Note: Some capacities reported appear high.

A-30

Page 69: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Nine Mile Point 1

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Ddmand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

1 Same locatian as Fitzpatrick.

2 Adequate methodology, not actually reported.

A-31

Page 70: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

North Anna

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient PopulationC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network - -

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

5. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X*

*It is not possible to assess the overall validity of the estimates sincethere is no information on assumptions or methodology.

A- 32

Page 71: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Oconee

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions -

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population -X

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall -X.

A- 33

Page 72: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Oyster Creek

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

* Population data considered, but not reported.

A-34

Page 73: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Palisades

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. AssumptionsC. Methodology _ --

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population - -

C. Special Population - X-

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X -

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall X

A- 35

Page 74: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Peach Bottom

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area MapB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

*Not reported, although considered in analysis.

A-36

Page 75: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Pilgrim Station

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population X

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A- 37

Page 76: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Point Beach

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network -

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered _-

Overall X

A-38

Page 77: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Prairie Island

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X -

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population --

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X-

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered --

Overall X

0

A-39

Page 78: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Quad Cities

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions -

C. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population -

C. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X-

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall X

0

A-40

Page 79: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Rancho Seco

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population X

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment x-_-

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall X

A- 41

Page 80: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Robinson*

I I

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. AssumptionsC. Methodology

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - -

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of NetworkB. Capacity of Segment - -

Analysis

A. Components ConsideredB. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall

*No Response

A-42

Page 81: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Saint Lucie

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions X

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment _-_ X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-43

Page 82: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE*

Sal em

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

BackgroundI

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions - XC. Methodology -

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population - -_

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network -

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall x

*A revised evacuation time estimate, which was received after the deadline forinclusion in this analysis, has been evaluated and rated excellent.

A-44

Page 83: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

San Onofre

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map

B. Assumpti'ons ._.L_-C. Methodology -_-

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population - -

C. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered - - -X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall -

A-45

Page 84: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Sequoyah

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X -

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network - -

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered -- -

Overall X

I A-46

Page 85: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Surry

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map _ XB. AssumptionsC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population X

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered -

Overall X

*It is not possible to assess the overall validity of thethere is no information on assumptions or methodology.

estimates since

A-47

Page 86: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Three Mile Island

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map - -.-

B. Assumptions -

C. Methodology - X

Demand EstimationAx

A. Permanent Population - XB. Transient Population -

C. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment - X

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall x

A-48

Page 87: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Trijan

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions- XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population X

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network - -.-

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered ..X

Overall .,X

A-49

Page 88: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATL

Turkey Point

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population XC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment -- "-

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall X

A-50

Page 89: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Vermont Yankee

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map

B. Assumptions -

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment - -

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall - X

A-51

Page 90: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Yankee Rowe

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. Assumptions X -

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population - - --B. Transient Population -

C. Special Population - - -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X _7-

B. Capacity of Segment - - -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered x -

Overall - X

*Not reported, but obviously considered.

A-52

Page 91: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

I Zimmer

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map X

B. AssumptionsC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population X

B. Transient Population X

C. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network -

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered - X

Overall X

A-53

Page 92: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Zion

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions ..X-C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population -

C. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X .B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

A-54

Page 93: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

APPENDIX B

SUMMARY OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATESFOR INDIVIDUAL PLANTS

B-i

Page 94: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates
Page 95: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Arkansas

!A

- -- r- -- -- .- - -.- ",(u cU a ) a) F

10) 0) 0) 0 L 01CL m m CL Cc C• -0 (A L 0 0 i- I - _ L- t-

toU wA 0 ) w U) c u C 0 .c • 10 4o0. 0. • •- .- • U) mC 0 A ac U.w 0.- c .u ea

C)4- 0 Ca . 0 0 .CL. ro C >0 >C >0V- 4

Jt4

U 0.- • • 0 0 04 0-..- 0 .4-' Q.- C - Ca,-z; to c : 0 a .4-3 Z 0 •0 0o 0.0 o-o0 o Lo J 0 • 0

W' 4-' O- 0 (- C " _0 Cl -c 0 L ) t .L ) -• L UL E 0 - 0 0 0 E 0 0v) SL L 6 M 0. A U 4- 4-' 0 u 4ý 0 4-S-U -,.- • j .. 0.. - 0.0)a)0 o " .- 0 C' ( 0 4-- -CL) C ' C- C -A • •

a-0 (aC r-. ~ ~ ~- u) c)0 0) ) c: -LA ~I) - - t •4-C- C- CU a a a) G Gi a,) C E CS..uJ cJ c-- (J . J - c-- CA - -• - CA s- t rio a) L. to a)t

-C. rL 0- o L- c ro ( S- v L n ro (AL S O L-> z 0 T;>> a) a- E_ E E a) • c F -c Q) cu -"0 '. ,

>0) a- S. - S- S-> VL S- o> C <~ a)0)0 o ) 0 - 0 -- o0 a) a). 0-

<. . i- = I- < (D C /

WITHIN TWO MILES

N 624' 30 60 90 60S 31 30 60 90 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

NE 1288 60 60 120 90

SE 5623 60 120 180 90 360

SW 421 60 60 180 90

NW 1023 60 60 120 90

WITHIN TEN MILES

NE 3956 120 60 180 120

SE 19858 120 60 180 120 360

SW 1365 120 60 180 120

NW 2163 120 60 180 120

Page 96: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Beaver Valley

4I

CL CL t C L4-) W3 0n 0 0A 0 Ul~ (A 0

E 03 . o. 0. C C C

o w) C cU Uc 0) ( U • aO *"Z 0 . 0r- 0 0. Q0 c. cl3U)w 03C jU 03 e0.-) V. 41 . Ua >C0 Cl 0 .IwQ 0 121-~ '04o 0. >.4-'

Ct) &-' o~ 4-30 o ~ o , C 0 *.-- 0 .- >"- C >"- >"

o 0Z . w T &- 4-' 0 ..- M,.- M 4- c.L- C C . Cr- f C- C *- *L0 4-) OV 0 .C 0. -- C .o~ & '1 OC- 0 L

- - 0 - 0 0 0 E 0 0Ct, L0. ' -0 e:o " C - .- '. --0 o 1 4 :0 4-o C.) , o- 000 30 0 4-- L) CrC) - -U) ' ~ '0- CLL 0o :3 Q. ' tL W At w). wo W WO E 0

Alo 13 22 to gE to 0 t0o s s- UVW. a- - & Ls-> toL '> C c~ <3 cu uw3 o V w L- 7 03 03 Q- 0.

________WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

All 1730A 225 270

WITHIN TEN MILES

All L55591 345 435

- - -- -I

Page 97: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

-3-g RQckPoint

ID

.0 0) 0) 0) - ai

E ~ ~ ~~ CL C 0 L au 0 0 0 •0 kA In •0 . 0 L, •0 • 0C- CL r d.- ',,n ) r- 4-) (D r- L;.- 'j -- 'o Z o--"

00 r- 0 CL- a € .0 w c w 0 .o 4J -0 4 - > .0.- "

4-10 4- •J 0 - 0 "'- 0 .- > ., > .- r- C - > "0".. 0 r- 4 4-L - .- •4.d Li " u 0 0 a"10 u "0

C)O4- 4-) )~i 4 0 0-4-Z' CL-' 0-L- CL- C C .ceO Cu• "'0 ea a C•' c- 0r"J 0-0 0- 0-0 • 0 0 4-) *0 0

C-) ,'-- aiw Cfl~ ,--- 0 to 4- o "0 41 • o o. 0-C,. 0m c 0_C.) 0=0..)r.0 - - - .,-- .u- ri o - 0 0 0 0 E 0 M0

CA L0- '00 (o0 u o yL U 4-)n 13- 4-1-0 4-J U- 0 4-0 4JI- 0-r -X.) 40 0-A(ii o.- E 0r-(

O-0 C Ls-. -a 0 '0.C to a 0- 0) a) a) 0) wa a) ~ Q)-EO.OJ.O i 4-) r- - = .,) *.n '0 L- (o a) '01 >-. F- e0o - 0 1- u m s LnO L•n S.- - 0 s- > o Z, 0 ->

> 0- EE E 2 CD r- E r- O(D o),0 = u"-LLI0 5.-&- s- > 'oL s- o> v0) d

a)0 o )J0 L- 0 0) 0L 0-

WITHIN TWO MILES

WSW-NE 12 14

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WSW-S 83 76

SSE-NE 37 26

WITHIN TEN MILES

WSW-S 95 75

SSE-NE 71 32

Page 98: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Browns Ferry

cx)!

•,• ~ ~ u &A- 0" t- - "A"-I-- -

0 0 0 0 0 •C L C C L C L :c0CA 0 ) 0 4 0) 0A LA I- 0"

0. c Lcf o 0 -of c Cmt CV) 4-) 0,U CL UU 0O .0 *.- > 0 *LJIx 02 ' 0 * W .C .4-) C Lo -'j I- 0- -

C 0 Ci a 0 0.- C0 o_4-' "0 CL 0 CL *-(• ' a) a -) 0- O C- 0 " - 0 Cl- 0 "•L 0 C-- 0j E - s- (- 0 u- EO Q 0 L 0(n S-. 4,. eo .e 0 -)-. -C -" C-- C 0 C-- (- o C (- 0' 4 c0 L.) c0 s*

0-~ 0)) s Ua- 0)0) 0S- n0 =- CL 0 a)C 0 0 0-C aL aL ai s-.. (vE v o)- C s*--- (v -u Cv 0- C 0- 0 .- E 0; 0-(aaCL tu L O C'- -o to (- '. LA Co Co > C 0 u --

>-0 Li E-0 Eri E= 0i c) E)0 a) Wo . -)W) OW U C (L i

S L L 0.. es> C- >~ ea s-a). 0, , " O 0 0- 00 0. 0-

WITHIN TWO MILES

All 120 240 600

WITHIN FIVE MILES

All 360 600 600

WITHIN TEN MILES

All 600 840 90 600

Page 99: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Brunswi ck*_ _

a) w a) a)2,-- c LA (A D D ( "(:"G ~ ~ 0 EA LAu•U • u' ' 0 "Ecl CL C C) -

?). 0 0A CA (A L L 0 0 0 U" ,- 0 "

c- CL a) (n aoC c di o .r- 41a0 (. cc- a~ C 0 C 0 ro- Z; '(C- ~au 4-'0 0- 4-J0 0- a 0 " 0 >.- > C >" >"

, "-.- L) 0 ..- 4-' .,- •) U-J0 ii0 0 l cc:) 0 ;- 4-' a) 4S 4-) 0 0.4-' 0ý. 0a.4-' 0. - C C-- " c (A ,- Cn C" 4- 0 "- 0 0 -.- 0a . 0 .0 0 CL 0v- a0 a e -- 0 ) o 0 0 4 a-, -a CL a D- - 0 C a_ - o C. ro L.) 0.(-.Lt E -3 C - c *---- .,- . ) r c 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 c000 (0 .- m Q. CA u 4J. = -1, 4- 0 4-3 L-" C C- 4 L.) Q-- C, tO " r.

a) 0 o-0 S- 4- C) CE CC .. C~ 5 ~ . - vL (

0- (0L 0 S_ r- ( r L- v ni- 0-0 .- > a) d) 0 "- >>a0 ) 0. CE E 1- a) C- >)• 0)-t) ".) u

1,10 CL S-S -> mO S- 0> C CL~ ClW o a) 0 S.- 0 - a) w) 0. u0

I m 0--- I ~ CL C.r I

WITHIN TWO MILES

WIHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

__________ - - - -I-I

!

i-i-i-i-i I

*No Response

Page 100: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Calvert Cliffs

co

0 E -E

4 a) 0 0 0 0 o • -- 0 •nE CL 0- Cý CL Cz a

LA EA. L) n I U)Li= . - •0 .- -- . 0

rYc- ,- 4-. a). 0) c- •: . c. cu c L;J "0- ,,I 7-XD '0- c" 0 CL I•"-(} •-•• •- "- 0 ",- 0y-0 Of a 0 " M 4- V 4-0"V) 4'J 0'- CL, 4j 0' rL r1- >1 . - C 3. ( .',. .- )( .(-~~~~e i0 roJii _ z ~

Lto -E0 c 0 r- 4- 0 C 0 C- 0 0 0 E 0 0

-) -E> S- 0 o- o--- -L- c ea " 0

________WITHIN TWO MILES15 1 E 15

*N f137 _ 1 23546 { ..8B 57 L - -

15 151 330 [285 570 0 S 6003

WITHIN FIVE MILES

30 30NW 2192 ____60 366 722 -~396 78 6

730 30SW 1431 j0 348 696 300 6.0 3

NE 0 FIV MILES30 30

SE 934 - 160 _ 354 708 384 1 768 0WITHIN TEN MILES

60 60NW 4903 120 456 912 516 1032 12n

60 60SW 6363 120 486 972 546 n1.2 L.n

60 60SE 10260 120 486 972 546 1096 120

N20 40NE 10 2-0 456 912 ý516 1032 2--0

Notes: * Normal (Top)/Adverse (Bottom)

Page 101: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Cooper

0,

a) a) a) a) a) a

4-) 0 0 0 ",- ._ .- .U ,- Ca--J0 o oI- • I-u C- C•I-uC•L/) a- CL 0 c r- $ o .o

Ln LA 0 V LA)LV) .' 0 0 *0CL -o F-- a) V) a ) r- WQ V J a• r- - - -- U -- "-

C 0 c 0 CL c- 0 - a- w0 a R34-) 1- 4-) s4a +14-)C.) 4-)0 4 4 0 'QCL M " 0 "- 0 .- > '- >-.- r- > >"

c-- C-,- . 0 " .- .Z- .-- . 41 LA'-0 ua 'a 0 ,iJ .0 () 4- .4-) a) Z ) 0 CL -..- a. .--. C C- - C

c_ C• C•A .- Ci A c 4-) 0 0fla - 1) I00 ,-j. 0"C Q0 0- ( 04- 0

L.J E C-- C "-- - U m C 0 C4- 0 0 0 E 0 0L/) sa- CL a ea C V Ln 4-) ~ s-1 4-) 0 4-) C) 4-3 0 4j L) a-.- Qa) s- - aa

a ja oa E 0 4-' a) C- CA *--.rtL ' aL (A)-- > taL 0 L a r L I-ta LnL 0 -> 0 0 .>

>a) 0- s- co =E=a) C E u Q CU) -) E ) s- E~UQj u s a) u 4) a C a) r a)~> aj F=c E E CU a• E- r- a) 0) cu -0J" '. , :2: (

LoJO_ -- s- s- > t s- t > C- a-t < u.

=00 L-- L0 SD U) U(

WITHIN TWO MILES

A-G 5 8

H- R 26 8 7WITHIN FIVE MILES

A- D 308 100

E -G 167 55

N- R 243 80 29

H -M 363 120 29WITHIN TEN MILES

A- D 3045 1015

E - G 455 150 3000 210

N - R 1940 632 15 64 . .......

H - M 1122 366 1 15 52 _

Page 102: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Crystal River

I00

L) L) 0) 0)

C•F- . C C • *' • . .j.- ..- - -0 0 0 0E ~~C CL) 0. 0. 0 0 Co ' L1) L flu Lm 0fI .0 n L 0

C 0 C- 0 (a. c- 0ý C 0 0C Qf0 'U 4-' -V4-J (0 4-) 104-1V) 410 - 4-'.0 0- 'UDC 0 .- 0 - > >*- .C L-C,) C-,- Z; 0- C *.-ý .4) .L.- j.0 WJ .0- LV L

r- CLn -'0 CIA C 4- - 0- 00 0 00 .0 -0 4-) " 0 "0r - u •i) Q) Eu 0 'U 4 - c - c - 0a C C- 0' ,-) t .o - C)

LLJ E0 r- u C 0 C- 0 0 0 E 0 0-C/i S.-0. 'UU 'u0r . ouU 4-'J = s- 4-)'0 4-)L-) 4-P 0 4JCL) CI- .L Q) s. - 0-u )w o E- o- c: - toC t- 'U C.) C: r-L) c 'U CA ,~'

(D 0)a L ) 4-) a) C- Cu, .- *,u s-L 'uW 'u z '0'uS. 0 o S.- 'U r 'U 'U ) to' u,) s - 0 S.- > 0 0> a) Q E E EU c E C= (u cu" u c.J C- s- s- s- > (as.- 'U > C -< ~ ca. 0Q0 0 a)0 (u ~ 0 .

WITHIN TWO MILES

A-H 0

J-R 0 601 120

WITHIN FIVE MILES

A-D 1522 15 150 210 165 225

E-H 100 15 45 105 60 120

J-M 0 I I 240 360

N-R 60 15 60 120 75 135 240 360

WITHIN TEN MILES

A-D 2940 15 165 345 180 360

E-H 9000 15 165 345 180 360 105 180

J-M 0 1 1 360 480

N-R 60 15 60 120 75 135 360 480

Page 103: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Davis Besse

I.

4-J • O On O in-n n -d)0 0) 0) 0 F )tECL CL CL C03. (:. 0I. I:. C- C,-t-

-in n inv)l ' inLf .L0 L *o 0 •o 0go. F - a. ) tn a)C c u (C 'A D r-. u F-

a 0 ' 0 . I-0 c 0O -a 0 O ro- + 4-. (0 4) ',) 4-JO CL 4j 0 C 0 -0 > >r, i - > "- > 0 -

Sr- ,- C_) 0 4 j ..4..) U• J u 0 r- O-C) @ ; 4-' (U4-' 4ji 0 CL 4-' 0.-.- 0.4-) CL-- C0 C 0*

L; r C C5; i 9 C 1 1- -- o_, 0 -- 0-0 ::. C LUM ()a u() 0 (a 4j) 0_ -0 0- c a- - 0 C Q- L r-. 'a go- 0

L-.- C .- C *-- C. "S -.u Co 00 c 0 0 0 E 0 0) E ,C-- (u m1L u 4-' S- 4- 0 .4-L) U 4-3 0 +-L 0j 1 ,) L. M-:S-O 0-,,

o) 0 E L•- 0 c C- .0 4- (a r L c CL -C ,- .c .,- E ,-a-a- - r_" I-c-- - CU -c- =c. cu (u w a) a)oj q) E to. ..- E S-.

4JiS- a) u 4-' (v r- c L' .r-- .,-c ( A S- 'aw '- '00>- . I-- #v 0 tu fa r (A to n S.- S..- ,-0 "r-

> 0- EE E r. CE c:o 4)J = - ' .. Ua u"Oua-S- S- S- > 'S.- to> C "Z0

)0 0 a) S 0 S- - 0 0 . 0.

WITHIN TWO MILES

1800 800 40 80 120

WITHIN FIVE MILES

Left 1600 70 140 120

Right 1800 75 150 120

WITHIN TEN MILES

Left 6600 120 240 120

Right 11800 210 420 120

Page 104: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

D. C. Cook

L) 0i U) U Cn

C3 CL CL CLa r0 ) 0 0(0 0 I Un (AU ' 0~ 0- I• E o. -' - . o. •

ro F- 0 cC r- w (1 -MC"•-U U 0AI l . 0 •*0 =0 0 0C0 C- 4- 0~ (1 CiC 0)1 0 -J >. >*of c:- -- C'-) o _ 4-- a•C0 oo L L- J40 0 - >4-- >-- C > 4- --Lit.- -, 0 *- * .. +-' .*• • *.+J uJO LAJ} 00 U-JV W: ,l

0 ~( c)4- En 04 4- 3 - 0 04 CL~ 04- 0.'a) C; Co Z, 2 0.- 03 0.-, r- * *83 - U" *0LJ E0 C,- . _0 * t c 0 c 0 0. 0 E 0- 0

S- C e"o ra Q. 0 4) S- 4. J 0 4- f- 4-) 0 4-i.. ) -. A-. .i S- n-.)C)0 E- - S.- C r- ,.-o 4- (a c C - oL) c to 0 o1"Q. S- C F-O M UC (01- n ~ =) Ca) (ua) a) Q) E -L S- :- E= -

( ) SU. a) . +'- cU C -C (A 0 -.- (- s- M q, . ' S- adi.a- F->- U•So- o S- ro 00 S- u! UL - o S- > o 0 " >

> z- r- -E C U .a) V ,LJJO.. $-S. $ -S-> to S- 'U > C- Cr- O UCLa)0 ou0 L. 0 S•• U U )L

WITHIN TWO MILES

B-J 210 2302 l--' 2n 1i r, 24.5 27n AT

WITHIN FIVE MILES

BCDE 160 420T9520 15 30 195 345 -84M0-

140 300-GHJ10 20 20 30 t80 260iD2

WITHIN TEN MILES

300 1020BCDE 360 20 35 75 054555FGHJ 300 720

- _l~ 920 2. -45- 34025 19

Note: * Normal (Top)/Adverse (Bottom)

Page 105: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Diablo Canyon

4-) 0 0) 0) Uu• u• ..-E -

ECL CL CL 0U - 0) LA0 A A L 0 0 0 0 - ~ 0

0. 0. -I- Win W r- a)- a)-C . .- . -- j-C 0 C- 0 a- = 0e 0 M c W 0 0 4-) 'D04--) O .4- 0 .4-

L/ ~ -4-) 0 0- QU C 0 C- 0 > >- C ; >L.) 0 C • .-. •.,- z- z JL. uJ' 0 U 0 t ,LJJ

0 0)) 4.)• . 0)..J .- ) 0.• 0 -4) .- 0-) I.- > - > - • C.5 -'U C" C 4- • 0" 0j0 0, 0 0 CL0 C-L L 0 CL0

r- EU 4.j - -0 0-C *00 0-C0-a 0L 'U -a 0-LLJ •: Cr-. C *.- r--- ..- . U 'U C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0

Q. . 0 Q'U 0. 0 o 4- D 4. 0 4J (" 4J 0 - S.)- a- -0 0-0)0) ~ .o C (a 0 a- UU aL CS- C ' n U

CL i. i-C -0- 'U.. 0r a - 0) 0) W 0 W) WE WL Q) S- to-Q)0Q) a0) U 4--' ai C -- CLA -~ -*,- LA (aL '0 'UL >

'ULa - 0 S. ro' to L a f.- SnL i-0 S> LA L.>0 W E- ES EW CD E C0- ) 0j = ~ =) -0

A 1.L- S- s- > s-L to> C C't00)0o 4) 0 LO i- -0 0) 0 - 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

QRA-F 5

WITHIN FIVE MILES

RAB 35

COE 28

EF 0

WITHIN TEN MILES

RAB 11763

COE 4965

EF 917

ALL 63489 29785 255 300

Note: This study slected to use a 6-milebetter reflect natural boundaries.not to divide population centers.

rather than a 5-mile radius and 67.5 degree sectors toThe 10-mile radius was expanded up to 12 miles so as

Page 106: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Dresden

4I.

4) a) cu W) c 0) cu W)

-UOf O Ofl OL, O 0 0 JL G) LA ILt CL c La a ac aLc C E C cU 2 Lo •o 0 o l0 .0 .0 .o .0

Cý 0- c.I *- 0) 0)- ()' 0)- U*L; - *- U4-J0 0 "-)C 0 4-- - . 414 , . C4. 4-, Q•4-) r4j. eO4-) (•4a *

0 4 .JC) -. ( L/ -C Mi L. C - .- - - -> > C " > .G > .1Ofcu4-' (U (V.- 0 (V j 0 C D * 4-) *0 'D WVJ WV 0 WVj WV0 a C' 4j-' " 41 4-'-- 0 CL0 a C a•- a -C a S - a C'0.- c U u• C r a•• - z-- 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 •0 *0 4- 0 • 0E 0) - C:- 0). 0 M0 4-) 0- U CI a(.. 0.L ( C-L U A (j ro .) aL

U La. C-a C ro : .C -a U 1z 0 0 E 0 0V) 0 t La. U'O.J 4-100 'a- 4-. - 4ý C- 4) J- 4 ) 0-- (.I n- 1 .S- C a- 4I0 o0 830 4- 0 4- C0 cLA aC'240 -C M0 - 0 L

M1 3 UL E Q) &- E L. 4- - E LU) 4- -0 (U L M eo) C tOL. '00M2 7 0 0 L. M t'> 3 6> %-0 > 0 -0 >

>) Z) CL E E =) ) 0. Z U-a-aJ S- 4- a- a. U 1/)

____________ _____ _____WITHIN TWO MILES ___ __

I80 30 830 660 45 20 __ 240

11 580 200 980 750 45 120 _____ __ 360 __

WITHIN FIVE MILES

I, Ill 4280 1430 1280 960 45 20 300

I, VII 760 255 1010 810 45 20 480 60

II, IV 1840 615 980 755 60 20 420 60

II, V 710 240 980 755 60 20 480

II, VI 1690 570 980 750 45 20 480

WITHIN TEN MILES

I, III, VIII 12340 4110 1580 1210 45 20 360 60

I, VII, XII 10840 3560 1010 865 45 20 360 120

II, IV, IX 9410 3140 1280 995 60 20 420 180

II, V, X 3400 1135 980 755 60 20 480 60.II, VI, XI 6870 2290 1050 810 45 20 480 60_1

Note: Evacuation times shown are in some cases less for 10 mile radius than for evacuation of a smallerpart of the same sectors. This is notreasonable, although possible from methodoloqy used.

Page 107: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Duane Arnold

I,

a/) L) a) a/ W atA 0n Ln uL

oJ 0) 0) VLA CCL CL C CL4-) 0) 0 0 0 0 I-- u I-- L/ U I-Ln I-- )

c . 0QL 0 a. c C-e C--V) 4- ) 4- u0/ • o • 0 >-0 • 'a0.-• .m • (U I ) i- 0 .C JLn /) - •. •J . .• •. O;", -)"

Cý c -0L 0 Z; O - •o C • - C • (- 4' -,, ' 'a'O' 04"C) ) 4-'0 4-) 4-0 C0 '- ZC 0 L.- 0L 4) CL- C_ c c

r-- r - ( C• ("• " a "- 0 0- 0 0 0 a *0 0 4-) 0 .00o (U -') "-C a) 0,C eo_ a- a- r,-) t, 0 ,-)

UAJ E~ C. f*--*.L U ( o 0 0 0 E 0 L 0V- s- CL .u) r CL u l 4- - .- s- 4-) 0 t-)L. 4-) 0 4- L) Q-- - a) c. 0-_ ra -)

Q)0 E - L-0 0 C 0 t - 0 4- C C -C c/ ) a. 'L0-Q0- Lc I-a. 'U(a .:3 CL a. ) a0)a) a) L)0 E~- -

NW9) 410 C5 CLn 55 a) 116 6u

(IJ~~0 c 0) a m aLJa s- L> fuL to> CL 0-a. a

00- 0)V aO LV 0)

WITHIN TWO MILES______

NW 129 43} 10 45_ 106 55 11_ASE 198 66 10 42 96 E 52 106 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

NW 522 174 30 58 119 88 149 60

NE 777 259 40 56 110 96 150l 6n

SE 1002 334 51 69 123, 120 1741 60

SW 1323 441 70 61 1151 131 185 60,

WITHIN TEN MILES

NW 4473 1491 160 138 192 298 352 120

NE 2649 883 107 84 138 191 245 120

SE 1!)1002 ý0334 231 402 420 633 651 120 165 192

SW 3525 1175 149 90 144 23.9 2U.. 1201

Page 108: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Farley

(- (V (uC~ Cn CA

4J (U 0 0 0

0 o .;= W- t A (uCr (D t-0 - 0 0. c- r 0 I ,0 c,

n -P0 13- -I 0 0- C r 0 - 0-.-- r.-.. 0 .- 4J- . ,--

0 )4,-J 4-1 0-' 4-)- 0 -P 0'- 0-4-)C-" m"'- 0 ) .,- a v t 0 -e 4J 4• 0 "- 0-C 0 -L.. ,Ci" 8 EU C,- C J -• *0- U~ t• 0mA LO. yu rO- UU 41) o- _ 0 o-)L r- - '0)0 E~ r O -~ '00 4- ' C-C0- to) L ) 0 u 4- .- Z 4 0 4J U 4J 0

-.0 s=1- 0 ' 1 rr.. to 0 4-

> o) a - E E E a) ES•~L a- s. .J ( - s-- f- >' ",-,-

w o •0 - 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

E 45 60

W 45 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

Page 109: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Fitzpatrick*

Q) ) 0) a)Ln Ln n in

4- u0 0 0 0 0 I-)Fu -i nE. CL a. CL C C

u A L n kA L 0 I *0CL a. u 4A- - - C .- .- r- -- (r-

C 0 C 0 0ý 0 0e C (Y C 0 r o - .' •U 41,1 4-w 0- .- 0 0. CL Cm ' 0 - > ~ > ~ C 'C.. r- - r 0 C .- &.W -- .) LJ0 U 0 .0 •C 0-W 41 -'-w 0 4 -' ,- 0 -0 4-) 0..-'004-) 0C C-- - '

=-u u , C - u' C- 0e.- 0- ( 0 - 0 0- .0 0 4-; *0 0t) - w Q) C. w 0t. G -) CC. 0. O CC a. .L) .u L (3 .L.-

W E C.-- • --- .,-L. U o C 0 C- 0 0 0 E 0 0V) - C .00 Cua to0- tU 4J) S.3 4-) 0 4-3 L) 4-) 0 4j L.) M.- Q0J 1-t .ai 0 o- r- - to 0 4- to C-L) C: r CL.) C o tA inCu1- a- to~ a . a) d) a) a) wO. w E S- ea. SE eo-

QS 78 e0- 0 S- 'o eto- L90 u u'S 1-0 150> 90aT) mN F E ELES ) C C-.) CI m di - a)Sj 37. S-1 1s-> .0 - to> C1 160 < aSo60 1-0 0 10 160) 0

2-~ a-. < - Z - c C.D U3f C/i V

WITHIN TWO MILES

S 10881 60 70 90 .130 150 90

___ ___ __ __ IWITHIN FIVE IILESSw 3733 60 ___ 70 100 130 160 150 - -

SE 2824 60 ___ 70 100 ___ - 130 160 150 - -

WITHIN TEN MILES

SW 35973 60 170 280 230 340 210 130 210

SE 9575 60 90 120 150 180 210

Lake 45

All 43772 60 170 280 230 340 360 130 210* Same location as Nine Mile Point.

Page 110: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Ft. Calhoun

I0cO

C) 0 cu c *

4-' 0) 0 0. 0 0 I-- -- U) 9 ' -E O) c cL CL CLC

U -(A) U) U) (n V) •0 .0 0 ,0.(• 'U I-- *.- CU U) •jr OJC UU CU U--•' u.'.- I- U.."- .)*--

a 0 C 0: c. QI- OC 0 C 0 (0- U- '4i 4-L) 4-).0 - 4-) 0 m- to C 0 0 *•- >. > G- C-" >0 > 0-.-. C- .) 0 . Z .0 b.LLJ "LJ 0o 4(1) ZU-.- 4 '- 0 . -'; D. 4- 0.'C - r- -. cv) 4.3 "0 4-) a 0 "to 'U CL c-.- 0 - o0 0 0..- -" * * 0 ( 0(-)6- C- Co -0 4-) 0.. 0-C 0-0 0-C 0a(-) r0.L-) r'- 0.aL. rL) r - ,- U- a .- -- C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0V)S- CL t u. Io• M- n U . = s-.,-- L 4-J 0 4-) •-) 41 0 4.• ). 0-Q- -I-,-- - -

)0 E",'- L- O c-", 'U O c4- ' C .) C CL) C 'U *. ' U0-0 cl s- C c 'U :3 CL 0 ) W- a--) 0) s-, 1- a- ( )- _ -(.>) L- u 4- a) r-- C ) *. .-- .,-. -O) > O '-"- >

CL ( oUL 0 -os LA '' 'UL ) LO L> 0 0 u ->0 0 EE ECU a ec: cu~ a) a) '.) cu a) <J Q- L- L> (aL 'o> c c< C L 0 ý

WITHIN TWO MILES ..... _i

G-R 187 62 15 180 10 205

Iowa

WITHIN FIVE MILES

N-R 7382 2077 15 180 42 237

G-M 892 274 15 180 20 215

Iowa

WITHIN TEN MILES

N-R 8317 15 180 56 251 -

G-M 2374 15 180 40 235

Iowa 15 90 20 40 125 145

Page 111: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Ft. St. Vrain

w

0 LI) 0 LI)

4J a- 0 0 0 0 -LI ' In F-LIE q? - 0- C0. D. -- c C

-- u 0 L • 0 • 0 "0C CL. (o F- .- 0 Ln WC I a) 'AC Ua )J .-- 0 "'--

c 0 0 CL F- D : OC - 0 Qc 0 ro .- ' (0 4-) 14-3S 4-) 0 - 4- ) 0 0- C 0 >- > . LJ "0 ,.1 0

L) 0 C r 4- .- .4- U-JV WV 0 V Vo W4-' Q -) a)4-, 41- • 0 0_- ,-. C 0-4-, 0-. C C - C C

r- (o Co ) • ", C I C - -) • 0"- o"V 0 .- 0o- .. 0 • 4) 0o 0L) to .- a 0' 4-) cl 0 aV 0 C l 0-V l- c 0L) CL L) R3 r,_~) CL-L)LA : C- Cu ',--,-- U 'V C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0

LA1-- 'VO (oO (uUC 0 4-'3 s - 4Ja 0 4-c-) tJ -' 4-)L) 0- - -10) s- - n- a)a)0 Er - 0 -- C- 0V L a c (tO- C L- . (o "-L-0-0 - L-C -- X: ~ a) 0-W a) a) a Ea - -E s-1

ca . s-x,• I- - 4 (. 3I10 4 0 (a 'V0- 315 (a 1L s2 94> 400>a) Z CL E E3E W cE c 4v o) WV ai - 00LU0- Ll s-s-1- > 'Vo s > Co >' c 0-

0-~~~C 0- -CFL ) C

WITHIN TWO MILES

I 140 64 350 315 5000 126 20194 1 _________ 240 ____

II76~ 35 3000 361 201 641__1 _ __ 120

WITHIN FIVE MILES

I & V 554 252 350 315 4000 360 20 40 420

I & VI 744 338 350 315 4000 180 20 280 480

II & III 374 170 3000 150 20 130 300

II & IV 1802 819 1500 144 20 3161 480 1 1 1 1

WITHIN TEN MILES

I, V, IX 4099 1863 350 315 7000 336 20 184 _ 540 60

I. VI, X 5121 2328 350 315 7000 246 20 274 540 18

II,III,VII 1736 774 3500 282 20 238 540 18

IIIV,VIII 2244 1020 3500 246 20 334 600 1 18_

Page 112: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Ginna

0

) 0) (A 0i U

W- 0 0 0 0 0 -f 1Vi IE (. . Q. CL a C- -

. 0. " tO• U) V'( VI Ai L0 O.0 *,-- O 0C0 .to-DC/lV '- JU (D - .- I-a .a . 0 a. 0 L - or C 0 M0 4-) 4j .0 4- V "--

C 4. 4) 4) 4 4-.- 0'C C.43 0 _ OO4) O L4J O .C . a ...

O..(3 :-" OCý •.•~~ %n a 4- '0 0*. ~ 0 .0 - *0 04) 4- Qo -a CL~ r- C..)

0tU ro U.) OL

-J E -*."- *.-L U aU•C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0Lf) La.C (a U toa CL tn 4-'3 : 4-) 0 4J (-) 4-' 0 4J C-) Q- - 0 a) CI .

C, 0 E S- O r- -t C oL) C U- r- a -- , 1 to V1S-0 L.C I-C tOC CL 4) 0. Q)0) 0) a)0)D - E S- ~ E S--a) a) S- 4) U 4-3 0V a C(A *- O to0 tOv rOCL> I> vOL 0t La to (A (aL o 0n L > z) 0 >

>0) ~ C E E EW C)aE C) a)~ = W0 *. uLLJC a- & LS S-> vOL t.O> C -<1 cu Z

o) cu 0 SO L -o 0V (D C. a.

WITHIN TWO MILES45

S 867 237 120 20 39 60 90

N 30 45 go 270 285

WITHIN FIVE MILES

SE 4820 1197 120 20 92 117 60

SW 4820 1198 120 20 92 117 5 12075

NW 0on-- 390 420

75NE 0 390 420

WITHIN TEN MILES

SE 12064 3414 120 20 114 236 135

SW 36803 10868 120 20 312 384 360720105

NW 0 15 550 595105

NE 0 L______ -5- 55059OF158 55 59

Note: All north sectors are Lake Ontario, and time estimates for lake sectors arefor evacuating boaters. Evacuation time shown under Special Population.

* Normal (Top)/Adverse (Bottom)

Page 113: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Haddam Neck

N)I-

0) ) 0) 0)

cu 0 0 0 0 0 i-' i- -uS 0.- . .. CL C aC

u v) Ln LfUI 0• 4 fl 0 .0 0- * 00. to w .- 0.) cu O,- W" 0C UW " w*c - " - -.

CL 0: c 0 w.I r- Cr 00 eo 4O ~0 -0 4-w4-J 0 4J 0 a- to - 0 - 0 > :; - c >'- > "

C. - - u 0 . Z . • • . -Z .L L 1 0 , -d "

CD4--• 4 4-J 0J Z 4- 0 C.LZ CL'- 0. 4- 0.C *- - Cto a LA LA 43 0- CL 0 .0 4-) C 0 0w w' w- w,--QLC - CLat

EL C'E C~ rý a =S.to C: 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0S- CL tu fu Q. 0 s- 4-D 0 4-" "L) 4-"-0 4-1L 0-- .0"0) 0 E*. o- C- a tO -0 m L C uL C r- u c L L

c-l. to.C (- 'u.C = -Q . o a)0-) 0) . -.) -;' S - .-

0 s-, U -' 0 C CU1 .. . .u '00 c,.- ,0,wto~ s- 0 s to to (as- 4Ato 4As- s-0 s- > 00 ~>>0Q) L 0 E EE EO C aE c: c) 0)j a)0 *)UD

LU- -- s- S.- .. > ea0- t > Ca. .a) 0 0)0 'a 0 L0- a) cu)O

WITHIN TWO MILES

AB 1304 869 0 0 2040 20 67 ,79

CD 1616 1077 407 271 2325 22 73- 96WITHIN FIVE MILES

A 3540 2361 4317 2878 3489 57 178 209

B 4025 2683 0 0 1571 59 165 192

C 2636 1757 0 0 2623 65 124 139D 2635 1757 1872 1248 6290 65 96 109

WITHIN TEN MILES

A 38316 25544, 5992 3995 6169 175 477 593 2401 -i

R. 7982 521 5 500 3877 4 .482 - - 527Z -

C 15890 10593 10866 7444 7384 260 - 495 1 354_A

D 10326 688415054 3369, 8791 2081 281 307

Page 114: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Hatch

NJ

S Q wa g(A vi Ln L4 •

• -.~ r c r_ O r -co- 00- 0,' 0•' 0 •' •0 "0.0 'U I-- .r'•- 0) 4./I JC GJU).)C .- u*.r- I-- U-• '•" "

a 0 c 0 Q. F- a: c e"0 o c y. -0 ro - U '-'j 04*>C 4-) 0 0. 4--0 0r cU " 0 c0 *- >.- > - - - >'--•r-C•'-C 0 Z -,-- ..-. • .4 L.) L K Lj." 0 u', "0 . "0a) Z)- 4-' di 4-- 4J' 0 0 -' .- 04' ' C C C'U CL/I .- CCI C o''0 o' oC. o0e *0 *0 ý .o .o0. c -U •- C- 4- 0 - 0- 0 0 0 0 I 0 L_0 0.)E-M E6 :, 3: 0.- *.-L. 0 90 0 0 3 0A-E,- 4-- 20 -&) 0 4-)60 L0)0 o r -o C U '-'0 CL 4-L c' , ~ '

EIII FIEuIE

L.0 -c F-0f. 'U.C : a- 0. (V a) ) 0 )) C'. - ~(u0 Q-) 4-' 0 a' C4A .-- *.-t/ o U. (aW 'S.. 'ua)o W

E- 5 4s- 0 51- 'U 270 36> 0 1 0 *>0 aj 0. E E EW cE co _0WO *. ~ UUi.Q &- s- s- > 'Us.- 'u > C- C'L

a)E o- 616 -a 45 9 0 ".- 135 165 3

WITHIN TWO MILES

E-M 6986 30 30 90 560 120 30A-E, M-P 266 430 30 30 6060090 -40

WITHIN FIVE MILES___

E-M 545 - 180 90 1801 1_ _ 270 360 180 - -

A-E, M-P 616 _ _- 45 90_ 120 135. 165 30~ .. 2. -

WITHIN TEN MILES___

E-M 2986 360 180 360 540372 360. ...

A-E, M-P 34 1 2 2240 360' 450 __600 690 240

Page 115: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Indian Point

l.A)

cu) a) cu )

A ) LC CA -4.UQ 0 0 0 0 LA t

E o o o0 0L 0. C C

CflU C) a)LI 0) C0 a' LA 0

0. C WIl WC W I) U.- --. ( - J -

C 0 C- 0 4- I-- O - 0 C3 C - 0 4,-' •)- ,n4- 4.(i)4-0 0CL'0 0 0 ý 0. 0 >r 4 -.- C0 4-C-f. - 4-) 0 0 C-*O '€- O .4-) Lilt- > " > .€- L" L'

CD )4-) 4-) a)4- 4-) ~ 0 0.4- 0.--! 0.4- 0.z C: CL .J CC0 -O 40- 0• 0-C 0-t) 0 Q- 0tCJ 0" 4) ) 0"L " 0.L

e' o • (U a) a)1 a) I 0 to 0 (- 0 - 1t.- -D CI- C U,. r.. o 0-0 L- .C0L

LiJ E C-- C 0 0 0 0 0 0S- OL0 r0Lo ca0. L/U Z-Sf S- 4-' 0 4-) L.) 4J 0 L-C-) 0-- -L (v -- 00a) 0 E ,- .- 0 -- ro 0 o r- C -) C C L-) C ' .

a_ S- a_. I-C 'C :3 CL a) Gi0 cu ww -S- ~ E .- L0)) U 4-) a) C - CL/ 0 ..- -L/) '0L (D)rL 0

a S- > 0 S.- 'o to a L A 1 rO C•-L S- 0 o > z . ) o " >> ) E- E E c E r- (U a) a ) . ".- -aLJ 0- L- S- .- > eo L. ra > C r- <0. 0j<.

" _ _ _ 0 - -~ < - I-s- 0 CD C C

WITHIN TWO MILES

1 32112 60 200 330 260 390 430 610112191 90 200 330 290 420 120 430 610

WITHIN FIVE MILES

1, 3 48167 60 200 330 260 390 75 430 610

1, 4 44436 60 200 330 260 390 440 620

2, 5 13229 90 200 330 290 420 120 430 610

2, 6 53410 90 220 350 310 440 120 430 610

WITHIN TEN MILES

1, 3, 7 101378 90 200 330 290 320 120 430 1610

1, 4, 8 100002 60 220 340 280 400 430 610

2, 5, 9 32178' 90 200 330 290 320 120 430 610

2, 6, 10 127267 90 220 360 310 450 120 430 610I _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ ________ _________

Note: Transients considered under special population category in this study.

Page 116: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Kewaunee

4t:-

a) (D U) E-(A-l I- LAc r - -r. c-4. "u 0 0 0 0 "- CA .0

E a. CL CL CL .0 c c 9). a. tAI- " . I U CA EA) Ac U 0 " . - - .!

c- 0 r- 0. -CL a cr- O ar- of 0 c 4-0 '0• 4-) > .-() 4-) 0 C- 4- 0 Q- eo C 0 .-- 0 .- > > . > -0 > "-wC.,- , c - L) . 4- .4-) U. L _" 0 r-I_ a-"-40 .-'- 04' -

C C *ca .o .to- r-U' ",--u C C 4--",- Ot" Oc0- 0 OV 0 "-) OL- 0L) to ,-- (u ý; ý w a) 0 eat 4-3 0-V " - r- 0- " 0 C L-C-) CL.-) (a 0-C- a0-)LA) E~ -3c C~ *.,-*. U to 0a 0 0 0 E 0 -0)V) s -C to .U 0 ... 3 U. .4-. " , L- 4 o 4-. .) 4.'0 4.. L) 0-,- "-UL . (A-- {%.'

u0 o E s- 0 C-'- O 4- ' c C-) C-- L.) c tot-A ea • •a- - c C - a - .(- = -L j U (D a o 'a 0. E- &- t: - a-)-0) s- v U 4-) a) C' CA , -A (' ;,z- 'o ... , oz >U

0 s-0o (a sC" A•C ) or .ti -s,0 &-.> 0

WITHIN TWO MILES_____-9 75 60 135 15

WITHIN FIVE MILES

w-5 o - 90 - 60 150, w -

6-9 _5 60 15 15

WITHIN TEN MILES

1-5 180 60 240 120

6-9 180 60 240 120

I I

Page 117: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

LaCrosse

(71

0) 0 0) 0 L n CCL C3 CL CL -r

g (0. 0. ( 0 - -o0 CA U0 0fU U') 0 0 .0 .ý. 0. ' I-- - 0. f • ) C- 0 ) n - , . -r- M 4 "0 -C 0 r- 0 0- c- Ix C 0 ix a r0 ea 41 V ~4J >a~ >4(n) 4-)0 0 - -}O . 0a - 0 . 0- - > 1; > . - C --- .- 0 • O"- - O-1 .,- O 4 4 L• O uO a 0 a0) Q) 4- 4-' 0)4 4-1)4 0 0.4+j 0l.- 0.-0.- C C cl r- rCC0 a)a a )0 CU1 4-' . 0" - av a_ a - r-v CL .0 W .. *u 0LiJ E C - C -- . - L - n 0 " C 0 - O. -OS- to c 0.C-) E O O(10 L- Q. r U (a a - u + z ,- S- 4-' 0 4-)• . 4-)0 4-) U a-,-- -L- (-- 0_a o E.- L. o .,- '00 4-- , a L.) C c c0 _ c to,- -CL0 L -C 0-0 ruC -c Z. 0c) a)) w ) 2 0w0) - E to-> 4--> nL 0 L- r-L - LO (A> 0 " L IV >

> ( 0.- E EW Q c c - ,= 0," '. , vUJ0. L- .S SL > VOL S- a> CL D-0. 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

E 15 15 45 30 60 60

WIThIN FIVE MILES

NE 15 15 45 30 60 60

SE 15 30 75 45 90 60

NW 15 30 75 45 90 60

Sw 15 30 75 45 90 60WITHIN TEN MILES

NE 15 105 165 120 180 120

SE 15 105 225 120 240 90

NW 15 105 225 120 240 120

SW 15 105 225 120 240 120

Page 118: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

LaSallie

rIM•

( ' CU 0) a) CU

4) 0)0 0 0 0E 0. Q- ci 0. C C E C C

LA (Ln A V) (A 0 0 .0. (U L a) r- a) (A 0) r-- .0 "'- "

C-0 C 0 C r- o O C ao 0 o -4-) - '4-' 44-A 4-'0 0- i-'0 Ci- r C 0 0 .> > > C >" >

,C.,- L 0 C ."- . 4-- • • L- J D z > iv 0 ILL .. L0 ) ' 4 -') 4-- 4- - o0 c_- a--. ,'0. 4-) _. '- C C C C

a- 0 C CA .- rO r- CA r- 4-) 0 -- 0-0 0 .- OU *0 0 4J •0 *0L" co- a)a) (A - a)a) 0 eo 4-' Q- 0 M a-C 0.(C O ) to CL C-0

E. E" C.- C -3 .- - .- L U cc C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0SL.- 0- C OU (0 ( l 4-) L3 S- - 0 4-') -'0 4-+JL k Q C1., C1 1- C-0

a)0 E . .- o0 C- . 00 '0 CL C C .) C ' I - (A_cl- L_ ' - i- - ,- u _- '- -,- 0) (0 a) 0 )0) E -- E-- ' •

(a; 5-0) U L -) 0) Cr- CIA a). -Ctfl ' S- ' a0) s05- '00-- 5- 0 to ' '05- IA'0n o CA -0 - > C) 0 ->> a• E E C E Ca) W -0 2f-..

LJ.a- 5 - ,- <- > z05- (a> C a) -T,

WITHIN TWO MILES

I 30 10 520 520 120

II 50 15 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

I, IIl 505 170 520 520 95 20 5 120_

I, VI 245 80 520 520 90 20 10 120

III, IV 215 70 65 20 35 120

II, V 195 65 - 651 20 35 1 1___1120 - -

WITHIN TEN MILES

I,III,VII 4250 1415 1275 1275 135 20 385 540

I.VI.,X 7635 2545 2070 2070 165 20 295 480. 120

II,IV,VIII 1905 635 75 75 85 20 495 -600

II.VIX 2870 935 230 2301 110 20 4 70 600

Note: Transients included in permanent population response time

Page 119: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Maine Yankee

co

a) ) () 0)C' C C *" ,- .- .'- ..-.

4(u0 0 0 0 0 tU' v-U' F -U - U0• E 0 . o. Do. r r a" C C_0 •*0 ", *0 0 .0

I ' a m 0 .w C- 0 .- c .- -.-- I- • --c 0 Cr- 0 a. r 0"0 ' M 4 0 0 4 M 4 '0 +0

-) 0 0 0 0 ,- 4- 0_ a C) a- m .>0~ > *.- .4-.. 4) U ~ W .0 "~J -

0~ ~~~~~ 4J4- 4-) wJ 4.) -- 0o 0.0 .- 043 0'4J 41 a C+ ) 4J-' 0* 4 a. -- CL -- r- .0 c~ 4-0

E: 0 .- M = 0 ,-) 0 0 o" 0 0 0c c 0 .0 00L)w-0 w~ VU0 Lf(. L-)

E,- 0 S.- 4 .) 0 = - .. ) -- tca0) E 0-.- 0-0(u E - 50 C to o0 4- 'U CL) Ca C0 ')v

1. 0 (u s- o 1 0- G 0 , .c, 0, - -o S. -I( (u s- t-u

CL 0 SL ra m_ ' VU S. t' L S- 0 s.- > 0 T; 0 -- >>0)E 0 EE EW CE Ccu) - *- ~)LL -s- sl S.- > 'UL s- > Co > ~ 0.

a0 0 -a 0- L0- 0) 0)i n V

WITHIN TWO MILES

1 66 78 90 60

2 66 78 84 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

3 66 90 108 60

4 66 108 132 60

5 66 90 180 60

6 66 102 120 60

WITHIN TEN MILES

7 .66 108 126 60

8 66 120 144 60 72 78

9 66 174 444 60 216 480

10 66 228 270 60 270 312

Page 120: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

McGui re

(A 0 0) 0_1C; C C -

4Q) 0 0 0 0 .- .0- "E 0 . 0. 0 0 . C C- C-

S( .,- CA L" (/)V) .0 0 .- • .00L -- ",- (.v OJC - OJC L- -- .2) C-- U -J

C,0.C 0 _" I- 0 C 0 -a t,"0 r- w 0 r"4-i 0 4-') 4. .0 a- 41 0 CL 0 ,- 0 >.. >) >. C ,- >,

-- r -- -- ." .4 -' . _- •4) LJ. u.J a 0 L1J _ ..

C C C-. 4 C-•- A CU 0 4.-- 0.- 04-) a o C * C CL) .2 12) Q) 0 go 4- Q *0 CL C 00.L EU z a C 3 - 0--S S- C)1 0 r- 2 35 0 05 50 5MN- 40 oC 0 U 412 S- 4-5 0 46J0 4- 0 +0 L) 75 a_ a) L . CL0)a)E0 E7S- 0 a.- 150 45- (a C C C C 0 (AENE-N 137L 145-6 toC = = 0) 85 Q) (U0a) I-0 - 4L

NNWW 12 4 3 C-a0 5 fa s- 85 0 a) 5)

>0) (1 0.. (1E EM CE CU ) -0 M-U&. -- 1> toL &-M> C a) Qj Cu

WSW-S 1147 0 $- 30 5 45 M0 3

WITHIN TWO MILES

WSW-E 31 ~ 0 15 120 35 0 0 3

ENE0j_24 _ 3525 30 145 60 0 0 75 90 45__________WITHIN FIVE MILES

SSE-E 1731 0 15 30 45 45 60 30

ENE-N 1374 12456 30 55 70 85 100 45

NNW-W 1225 4336 30 55 701 85 100 45

WSW-S 1147 0 15 30 4.5 45 60 30

WITHIN TEN MILES

SSE-E 19697 - 3738 15 45 65 -60 80 160 1051 135

ENE-N 13368 19618 - 15 - 45 65 60 80 45

NNW-W 6496 7159 15 45 65 60 80 45

WSW-S ?5119 663 15 60 80 60 80 60

Note: An apparent error exists as evacuation times are less for 10 mile radius than for 5 mile,, •,A. -,,

Page 121: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Millstone

ko

0n us u)C e- C- C- . .• " "

4-) 0) 0 0 0 0 I-- U - US j - -0E CL CL OC CL c•-0. c ,--*E O. (U .dJ .f (U - - I-- '-Q AA IAu•u S SU 0 4A 0 0

r- 0 C0 r- I- w~ cC ~00 V4- 4-))(A 4-0 0. 4. 0- Co 0 -- 0 * . .r - >, .

C -- C'-. 0 4-- ..-. • .'. UJ0 LaJ" 0 . , ") 4-4) 4-) 4"4S 4. -S0 .0 - 0 0 CL- 0 "- - 00 z '0 C - • 0 c c

,- - 0-0 0-0 *o 0 0. DA-)"J E r- - C *•r-1- s u r 0 0 0 0 E 0 0

,-- Q. nU 4J 3 0- 0 -" -.s.0- E-. 0 4-J L-) 4- 0 C-) C CL Co .-

o) 0. LC -0. C ~ra ' 0 . 0acC) 0c0 0c L 34) r- -S. IA

4343) 1-D u 41~ a C - l-_ k .- - .- 0 roL s- Wto 1- mOw.. o - 0 S.- fu ro to ul ( L As- 1- 0 S.-> " 0 Z->

>03 c 0. E E EO c E c4 a)~ ao 'a~ "aLd 0l. s- s- s -> toL (a > C. c CI, 0.

0) 0 a)0 - 0 a-,0 a)

WITHIN TWO MILES

N 6087 3044 1096 731 3494 8 90 107

WITHIN FIVE MILES

NW 12660 633C15721 10481 7076 33 227 266

NE 1778 2088c 12242 8161 4618 21 408 484 300

WITHIN TEN MILES

NW ?3669 1183124287 16191 8056 163 466 527

NE 34956 4747E 56742 3782 11405 125 -7- 667

Fischers I. 400 2100 _T 540 622

Plum I. 45 52

Page 122: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Monticello

0

a) a) 0) a

LA in U')A n0 C CC C w ")

V. 4-0 0 ) 4-) 0 CL 0 0 0 0> . - > IL- "

-- , • .z- 0l :L .. , 4- 0 .0

U~ ~~~~~ -n iin i nn Lr- 0- r0 I- au) i ) i j U J- H " i'(/1 4-)0 -.4) .C00 a_ C "" L.) C. I ~ >

C.,- E.0- ,- 0 C; C.- 0) 0-- s. u t0 C 0 0 0 0 O.0 0

o- s- CL to u r CL LA ) 4- "-:3 s- 4-3 0 0 4 -) L.) 04-) 0 4.- a_. w- *. C C)a)0 -E o - .. C 0t t-) to 0L fu .,Li .LL E C' -C1- L. a- m -c ý =a C CL0 C E00 0 E 0L U Cu. c i U 4-Y a) C-" ' .LA . 0 ,-)L.n (a &- ra a) L :. 0.a)we~s 0* 1.- -" ta - 'a C i C) a i

-- 0 - "a ' c int to t n- s- 0 5-> 0 0 ">>aE 0 EE E a) CE Ca) a) a- L) U0

LLJ a- L.L. L.> toL. to> C a a)aCU a)' 5-D Ca-i a)CL0

WITHIN TWO MILES

NW-ESE 266 10 15 30

SE-WNW 509 15 20 40WITHIN FIVE MILES

NW-NNE 1099 30 40 80

NE-ESE 1766 35 45 90

SE-SSW 4573 45 54 110

SW-WNW 1133 30 40 80WITHIN TEN MILES

NW-NNE 2855 60 80 160

NE-ESE 6609 75 100 200 _

SE-SSW 8890 90 120 240 200

SW-WNW 3620 1 65 85 170 -

Page 123: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Nine Mile Point

{3O!tU

E0 LD_ ul vi " {",-0 0 0 0I 0 "-

Vf) 4- O CL- 4-) O 0 -CL (-0'- . -- .- .,- •.-a > .

r-- r- u):• .- "•. r- - ,- 0 "- 0"- 0 .-- 00 • • 0 •0 4-) • 0 L L.)4a) 0 ,a)( u ( 1) 0I O C L. CL r-" c-_ "-0 M3 - a I• L-)D ro C>(. 0DLJ E :3 C- C e--• .- .,- U. t0• r- 0 O 0 E Q- C-aS- C . ( a U C U C . t n U) 4- ) S:: ' - 4 -) O 4 -3 . . 4 a O 4 -J U 0l , -- - ( G S -- r o. W3

0-0 S- --- C - O • n • ••- (a n- = O S.- a)"-CU 0) 0) u3 4- tn: s- (0 QI. >; ' ,) ;

a) 1086 70 90 130 150 90

WITHIN FTVE MILES

SW 3733 60 70 100 130 160 150

SE 2824 60 70 100 130 160 150

WITHIN TEN MILES

SW 35973 60 170 280 230 340 210 130 210

SE 9575 60 90 120 150 180 210

lake 45

All 14 3 772 60 170 1280 230 1340 1360 1130_ 210l

Note: Same location as Fitzpatrick

Page 124: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

North Anna

0,

- - - - ' ' - € • .- "- "

. 0. .- ) r (D LA a)U• 0 c0 .: - •0 . 0r- 0 C 0 0 . Iu 0 w 0 f" 4.-) 0 4."- to .1 J

4- 0 0.m 4 0 . ' C" 0 .- > - > ..- C > -- >

C.'-.- C.-- c) 0 4-) .. .4-) Lu 'a u. -a 0 LI 70 LLJJ) a) 4-) Q -4.J 4-) 0 0..4- ' 0. -- 0 41 a-- c c . r- Ca

C' C Ir- .-- Cc," C 4-' .,- 0 "- 00 0.- 0"V. 00 •0 4- 0 *0

.) a- ) tA cu ) 0 (a 4-) 0 -0 M C- c: . -0 a_.C 0" .) Q. L.) m CLL.) CL L-)

Lr E • C- C -- *L . C- u m r 0 c 0 0 0 E 0 0(AL- 'L t 'u0C tfU 4J = s- 4-J 0 4-)CL.> 4-) 0 4-)" U M .- S.- 0o ..ai 0 E .- Lo a. mU 0 4- 'U CL) c CL Cn LU- 'U (

M.0 C L s- 0 -a. (a= X 0L w) a)) w a)0 E- S- t E - L-

0) S- Hu 41 a) C- C5 r .--- -- m ( S- tu d Z s- u w0C to IUS- 10 o S 0 (a t m0S- . 0S- 0 - 2> 0 0 >

>0 ai E. E E 0) C E C a) a)i aJ-0 .. u~ UV

LLJ l L- s- s- > m s- 'Us> C c~ <. a) ww0o0 W-0 LO 0 - CL OJ

WITHIN TWO MILES

A -H 1721 45 45 61C 90~ 10EJ 6010 0

J 1 1 01010 3C300 42(360 0 0WITIN IVEMILES

A- D 839 90 90 135 180 22d 135 30 45

E - H 278 _ 60 90 150 - 150 21d 240 0 0

J - M 1860 120 180 420 300 54d 720 0 0

N- R 1976 1 120 240 420 360 540 720 0 0

WITHIN TEN MILES

A - D 2966 180 180 260 360 440 260 24 36

F - H 0..4- 10 180 0 270 360, 450 480 30 4-9

J - M 2800 240 180 720 420 9601 1440 0 0

- R 3754 240 240 720 1 480 9601 1440 0 0

Page 125: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Oconee

(w

0S 06 1 F- 60 F-E •T r- M

U U)E-E 1 24 4 1 00 U0 21 .0C. 0 o 'U W- a J ) =J 0)U) 4 W r u-, ~j.. - . U- 4i-3ES0 -0 1. I4 C 40 Q46C 50 124- 0 04-) (04- >W 4-) 0a 4-8 01 05 0 > -- >4- 90 12 30an: 50 92 C0 r- .4) .4- W0 12 0 0Co 0) 4-) 4-) 04) 4) 4.-' 0 .) 0.- 04' 0 ~ C C~C

I- C CU) *-' CU CC 4- ) CL 0 0 --- 0..0 *04-) M*0 0L) 78 2 -0) W 75.0'a 4- = a- a- r- (j 0. U 0g 0ES C t C.88 0283 U 0 250 E 0

CL 7 U to C67 WU 4 75 2 4j 0 0 .- 500 5WNW-N. ' 4 -C 7 0 5- fa =3 L ) r ) = 30)) 50 - L03W M W Uo CL C - CU) *'- *.-U Gi wU0 'UL E S

>0 d) M E E E5al0 r r- C4) 0U 0C'I *J a) CU1.130 LLI. - S..> to- 'u> CL CL0. 0030 0 4 ý S- 0 L-O 03 3

I C 0- < 1 .2 CS C-0V

_________WITHIN TWO MILES

1N-S 225 44 115 [J 60L_8020

SSW-N 63 j2711 - 20 1 1 60j 70 20

WITHIN FIVE MILES

NNE-E 1961 264 45 180 240 30 210 300

ESE-S 1444 546 35 90 120 3.0

SSW-W 1086 1775 45 90 120 30

WNW-N 500 3923 30 90 120 20

WITHIN TEN MILES___

NNE-E 7822 588 75 210 270 50

ESE-S 23888 3283 60 180 250 50

SSW-W 17495 3670 175 210 270 50 500 590

WNW-N 4279 5483 [75 210 270 50

Note: Data may not be cumulative for evacuation times.

Page 126: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Oyster Creek

wO

0) a) a) a)

4.) O 0 0 0 0 I F- 0 I• L-E 0- CL r_ c C

,,, .0 .0 .o .0

C 0 c 0 0. I- r r-- C l," 0 0-4- 143 to04- '0 4--C10 4-' 0 0-. 4-3 0 0- Co 0 - 0 ' >~ C- c > 0LJ-n:: - L) 0 C _0 .. .-. .- iJ J 0 LiJ ciJC) 4 -) " 4- O 4 )-0 O 0- O4- .-V C c* ".- 4- "- C "

F- ~ C- ~ ~ r '0 C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0LI) £0- OU • 1•*- . U1 c:-- - .- L-A 0 c -- a 0 0-- 0 ) 0 •0 £ 0 • 070)U0 t 4-3 0- c c£ 0 Cl. - - -C: 6 -) CL UL C 'Li , 0 -

>0) Eo ,--p ., 0- s- . u CE- C c" 0) 0 E OU O.s 0 ea eo0- L u• L 4-- :3 s- 4- 0 4--) 4- 0 4--) C L " s.- 0-

0u 00 E0 s 0 C-'r- r- r- 0) c tn--- L a---- 3--- ----- -- - -- -- r a-

___________ ~~~WITHIN rwo MILES____________r- -u -a)

A L - S- 601 J 30 75 90 135 > 90 120

B 60 102 18 m I 162 :4c I()_WITHIN FIVE MILES

SW 60 30 75 90 135 120 120

NW .60 48 102 108 162WITHIN TEN MILES

NE 120 240 420 360 540 90 120

SE 120 84 186 204 306

SW 120 30 105 150 225 90 120

NW 120 96 204 .216 324 90 120

Page 127: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Pal isades

U,

0) ) 0D V Q

4..)-) 0- 0 0 - 0 E • 0 o01 0 0. 0 . . C - C C

LU CA LA (AU tA LmU (A 0 0 0 .00. 0. ro U- ~ )U ) ), 0C UU '* --

C 0 a 0 0. I- a 4 -0 af a ro.4-) eu 4 4-)Ln 4-)0 cl. 4-) 0 a- fo 0 - 0 *->~ > >.- >.-

0 4-) 4-) LLJ La 0 a0)4-' 4-) Q) 4-3 4-) 0 0.4-) M..- 0.4-) M..- C -- a -

o C U( .,- t C t rC 4-) "- 0 -- o'0 0- oo0 o 0 0 4-) 0 0ou cu L ) ) 0e 4-) CL 0 m~ a ~ m a -C 0. L) 0L-) ro 0L> -c.

E rC C .-- .-- U_ C fu- 0 a 0 0 0 E 0 0•- (0. t U v . U•,U 4-) ."-" I.. 4'J 0 4-1C-) 4-3 0 4••-.) 0-- -. L. - - 0.0)

0) 0 E S- ._ t 0 4'- V a -L) C r-L) c U. "0.L .0 = I--0. to : 0. C--) .),-) 0) 0I0)• - a - $.- -" E -

a0) - U 4-1 (I C - _ L .- - .- (AU to s- ro0) s-L a)" >. I--• o - o C- ro m S_ (A LA S- o 0 - o - 0 ">

>0 E E~ aS5) c~ ca) a) ; Q) 0 U~ _a UJJ 0. . SI_> l r > C-< (C1 Q.) a)<

0)0C C)~ La S_ .o) 0. 0.

WITHIN TWO MILES

N-SSW 31 11

WITHIN FIVE MILES

ESE-SSW 28 29

N-E 58 135

WITHIN TEN MILES

ESE-SSW 120 124

N-E 158 165

Page 128: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Peach Bottom

0I

41 0) 0 0 0 0 Ln C CVa- CL M. CL C CL n (A V) LA VtA . 0 0 * .0.• C) CL LA Qj A GJ , O ° H , • *CC 0 C 0 0- I- O C O0 o C 0" 0•4-4J - J -0U 4-)

1/) 4J- O( - 0C 0 -0 c- .,- .- C 0 > "--a- .- 0 C w- . -*_ .4-) L. JO u " ' " 0 "r-0 14-) 4) () 4-) 4-) 0 . 4-1 (0..- L. 4" 0..- - C .- CI o C- 0 r,- t - - 4' • -"- O"D 0.- O0 0 O a .0 4-)I E C -- , ,- fo * - 0 a 0 0 0 E O uV) S CLO (aO u OO toO CL 0 L.3s 41) 0 4-L) U 4J' 4-iL 0ý ( - -L j (v .(a)0 o E .- S-- 0 C-.- t 0 4- (0 - ( _) rC C- C ) uE . --0- 0. S-a C e -0 . 9'-C = =. L a) a) w j oa) ai s- eos- toa(1)0 u-1 U 1 cl) C CU-) t; VLA toL 'u to -to i~ So.. 0 S. eo fa '0 s- 0i L- s 0 .- > u 0> ) 2 0.. E E E Q) a) C (v -•a' = . U -v

IoJ s- s- S.- > eo S. e > a •Lw)0 o J a) - S-V 0) 0) V)

- - - -- L 0-: <c F-~ F- <

WITHIN TWO MILES

NE 60 120

SW 60 120

WITHIN FIVE MILES

N. 120 240

E 120 240

S 120 240

W 120 240

WITHIN TEN MILES

N 180 180 540 360 720

E 180 180 540 360 720

S 180 120 360 300 540

W 180 120 360 300 540

Page 129: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Pilgrim Station

w) a) 0) a)

-) 0 0 0 0 -U -- f -CL c . a. CL CL a CoLA LA 0 ) Ln 0n -0 .0 _ .

C- 0 C 0 f I-= n C ý 0 o-r- C =0 M 4-) '0 4-)Ln 4-'0 0.- 4-Y 0 C1. I r- 0 0 . > > C• " "w C.- C-.- L) 0 - .- .4- ... . "-•) ,iV uJ-0 0 u.,Loo 0-) 4- 0) Z; 4-) L 0 0) 0.. z-L-:f 0.- C C,- C C

-" C C V I 0 . U -"u C C 0 " 0 " *.- 0 "0 •0 * 0 ) 0 * 00 'UM 4-) CI-t aC -0 M- C W 0-(c -) a.L 'UCL -L)

.J C- -:3 . - S-L . ro C 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0V) La. M U 'UD. 0 i CL) ZL5S 4J) 0 4-) 4-) 4-' 0 -4j () a_ - a_ L. CI 0-C )

a0) 0 E o C Cý CL) C -" - ea -LA(-. Q ) a)- ) a) 0- z -- E -. •-

w)a) W-) 4-) 0) C- CU *-- - U.-e'S uW

WITHIN TWO MILESSE 469E 1173a -T 31

WITHIN FIVE MILES

5748 1437 35 35NNW-NW 2241 897 2959 987 45 32 120 8A 1-55 16- 4 .5,

5T1612 45 45WNW-SW 10938 4160 15014 5005 60 8 l 1 27n I2q 1n 23n 6U

9525 2382 35 35SSW-SE 5619 2248 5210 1737 45 I00 10 -1 3;. 154. 45-. -

WITHIN TEN MILES

9219 2305 35 35NNW-NW ?1414 8566 13054 5018 45 2 1 6 2L5_ 1A7 44n 3iJL At -

= 2466 45 45WNW-SW 35394 4158 5009 8337 6- 119 175 91- 2S9 25. M

14302 3576 35 35SSW-SE 6625 2650 11639 3880 45 79 125 221 335 170 45.

Notes: * Transient includes seasonal (Top) and transient (Bottom)** Normal (Top)/Adverse (Bottom)

Page 130: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Point Beach

co

LI) LI LI) LA)>-C C C C *- '- 0

4-) 0 0 0 0 FLI) ý_U1E L a. CL. (. C C_ C-U 0'- ' 0l 0I LnL ) A •0 0 *• 0

0. M. F_ a) Ln ) OJC a)fl V 0 (D rz L; 104C_ 0 C_ 0 L. I-- C= C 0 f -C 0 i0-I-) Z.4)-) > >.-40 n-' 4-) 0 CL (0 • 0 0 '_>. >- C, - - -

C-' O ' • .,- L)•-u 0-•- C "-0* 0 ,-.- . .0- " jI:= ui c0 0- • 0 • 0VC1a 4-)) Cý a) 4r-L o*,- 4i - 0 *0F- C"- Cn C •- -C 0 C- 0 0 0 E:0 0 0

{•P ~~S 0 0 0• 0' C1 - a. a)0(• e - .- (.)c 0 u ,S_ rLa Za 0a ELL Z~ Z; = 4-) 0 4-) C) +-'0 4j -)L 0-. 3r J W S_S0 o-10 ~ tao 0 4-- a L) = C L) C '~Ln)'

OJOJLW 4- 0) - CI)W 'a) E~ S_ 'I- ~ Z t-0 L 'r 'LA~ ~L 10 1> 0 .- >

UJO LL 1> SaL 0> C 0)

a) 0 W10 S_0 &_0 a) V CL D

WITHIN TWO MILES25 1LPZ 265 90 1-i* 52 110 5_5 0 -*_

WITHIN FIVE MILES ***

25 15NW-N 33 97 5_* 50 1101 55 120 30--*

40 25SW-WNW 519 150 90* 65 40 75 ( -- *

25 15SSE-SSW 388 110 60* 30 110 55 -120 1_30* -

WITHIN TEN MILES ***60 40

NW-N 1613 447 40* A5 I 10i 2(n An*

140 70SW-WNW 43391500 -* 165 330 _2n _2n i2f----*

120 120SSE-SSW 15738 4610 1200 250 00* 210 450 135 50 240 480 120*

Notes: * Normal (Top)/Adverse (Bottom)•* Total General Population Evacuation Time estimated to be non-cumulative

• Estimates for 5 and 10-mile radius maybe non-cumulative

Page 131: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Prairie Island

'.0

LA Ln Ln Ln C. ,C- C C C: ' ~ I-I

4. )0 0 0 0 F- 0 -I La)- a CA a) r - 10 4- J") 0. Q 0 0- > C *o C

. •J In In• I/ L/)In .0 .0 "0

0- C. ro C- 0 0) 4j dJ Jn J L UI ~C" 0 C- 0 0. -- D C- 0 rC - 0 o'"' 0"-,V/' 4.J 0 .( -- . 0 . r- O C- 0 "'-- 0 >• .,-- C,- >-- . > "C" ,- C'.- 0 0 C *.. .. -- r.. ."- WV' ,&.J' 0 WV' tJV

Q )-' 4) a )- -)o CL 00 0a- .. -' r- C: - CLC? C• -- C C '- , r- 0- .0 0 0L nS- Q t 0) I no 0 ) 0 0 U ' 0 ! ýS 4 -) . 0 C 4 - ) D .C.- ) 4.- ) + j C LS 0 .- ) C .1 -4- o.

- a) 0 C - C " ,-1- U ,"0 C 0 C- 00 0 0 •0 0 0

,,-, 1-0• . U 4.u , C- C-n *)- o to ' o 0) o - >F-.0 '-1- 00 '0•-- I 0 (' 0- 10 S-> " 0 '>0a) 0. E E a) C: C0 ) 0V * : ~ UbLi , 1. S.. - ,> t ' . 'o > C1 ca_0

0)0 a) 'a 0 S-' a) a) o_ 0.

WITHIN TWO MILES

NW-ESE 238 119 15 20 30 35 40

SE-WNW 111 56 15 20 30 35 40WI1HIN FIVE MILES

NW-NNE 370 185 1 30 40 45 55 80

NE-ESE 610 305 30 40 45 q 5q AQ -

SE-SSW 2302 1151 40 52 55 67J100

SW-WNW 378 189 30 40 45 55 80 0WITHIN TEN MILES

NW-NNE 2153 1077 60 80 75 95 160

NE-ESE 4355 2178 50 65 65 80 13.0

SE-SSW 14016 7008 90 120 105 135 240

SW-WNW 1790 895 60 80 75 95 160

Note: Notification time assumed to be 15 minutes to compute total general population evacuationti me

Page 132: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Quad Cities

0

"0-~ G 0 0 0 0 I•A' "- ' 'inE ca ca~. CL 0. C o .c c

CA n(n in Lnn 0 .0 0 ~ .0.~~a 0.L - -- W i W n wW r- r- rl4- 4-wC- 0 r- 0 0. - c or 0 C 0 to4 >4-

) 0 cl- - 0 o.- ru C 0 ,- 0 ".- > >" - > -Of r- .- r .- (U 0 C * . *4.. ..- . 41. uJ ' ,j a 0C W 4- 4-, W4J. 4-. 0 0 .4-, a--- 0 .4- .- C r -'- r0 Z

Cr- Ca c t .,- - CiLn C 4-3- -- O• 0 .- o - .0 .0 4-'CO A-a u0 ca 4-J a-0 .CL -0 M-c CL3 r-) u.L to L.L) L.1UILL EJ C- C .--- .-- - r C 0 c 0 0 0 E 0 0

S- C to U ru0 C- nL) 4Ji M 4-3 0 4- L.) 4-) 0 4- L.) Q.. - (V to- ~CUO E -- S- 0 C- ru 0 4- ra r CL C -CL) C in*)t i n0 J W- 0 4-9 _ C- 0i to -'- * ,'-' a) a.- 'O sa- t

o- S-- 0 . co ca ccaL- icc S-L 10 1> U)0~> a).a E E EW Cir-E oa) aZ io . (uL.J0_ I.- &- -> raL S > C- ,L

WU o ) 0 s- 0 L0 W a- O-L ,c : ..- ,

WITHIN TWO MILES

1 45 15 ( 0 35 20 180

145 50 85( 680 75 20 300 --

WITHIN FIVE MILES

I,V 1350 4501 0 105 20 420

IVi 2815 940 30C 240 85 20 4--a-

111111 700 235 881 710 100 20 480-

II,IV 1350 450 851 680 115 20 420 - - -

WITHIN TEN MILES

I,V,IX 5310 1770 0 115 20 540

IVIX 42240 4080 1030C 240 115 20 720 300

II,III,VII 1510 505 885 710 125 20 540

II,IV,VII] 7265 2420 850 680 100 20 480 60

Page 133: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Rancho Seco

I.-

Clv 0) Q) 0) g) ) cuLn tA (Al - E

Cl) 0 0 0 0A LA CAu L• , • - . 0'-, C • C

•CL- M 0) A , d C Q L o o C .o 0C,' 0 C• - 0 r 0.n r 0~ " 0)U 0.J- LJ'" J-.r- I- U• . - •"

V) 4-'•0 - -0 0. " C0 C ,c-0 ha_- M.I) 4-) 13- ..4-). 0L CC~ ~: ~~ >~ >~

hr•€, - - U 0..-. .• Z; U; t>S L>0 0 ri OL- 0 0 C0o 4-) G)4-) 4J ,=o0 4J .-" 0~- 0.C.- ' C C C1 L

C L C0 0- 0 0 -C 0- 0 C 0. 0-010 E.- £0 0r 4aJ4 ~ CL i Cl C 0 C 'a. C£U I -

0.0.E £. C :30 UaC n u0 J) - a U

TL TO 0L 0 0 0-

R- G J14~ 92234 j35 * 3 6 __38 41 f• * **

H - Q 87 U56 _ Q. _% 40 * 31 6 4- 4346 22Q** **

WIITHIN FIVE MILES

R-C 55 35 _ 35 * 924 a 4459 30 ** **

0- G 35 22 4-_ a) C_ 35 * 9 24 44 4A27 S- **

M-fQ 478306 70 * 912 79t82 98_ ** **

H-L 229 147 55 * 11 28 - 66 83 132 ** **

WITHIN TEN MILES

R-C 303 194 155 35 6 221 270** **

D- G 2491 1594 200 * 20 66 220 266 343 ** **

M - Q 3674 351 200 * 20 64 220 264 652 ** **

H-L 1816 1162 200 * 20 64 r 1 220 264 760 ** **

*

**Preparation time included in warning timeLess time than for the general population

Page 134: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Robinson *

!"

CU CU a CL) EJC)0 ~tA un tA E

4-3 0 0 0 0 0 CA CA - -c a. oý CL a. c c C

( . I 0- (Afl L (AA• .0 '0 0r *- ' "

1" (4-- ý o- f.-.a > o - 0 •C .Q " . ,,,. oJ• ',c u 0 C> •, -u oL,'LJ - -

C 4-) 4 (v 4J 4-ý 0 041 X. 0. 4- r W c;LJ- (A C CA r- - 4- Z " 0 0 .0 0 0

L) Q) Q) a) 0.. (a Cl0 00 c- CL 0Lc t) k (uj E : C- C -- " rL S- u C- 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0

S- L fu Cu 'a CL V)u 1=S 4-') 4- u~ 4J 0 4-'J (-'o -'.- L a ) ~ CL L -- DQ-.o E Lo•, C -_ (, 0 CL c C (a It/ 'a (A

0-a-L S- -- c a_ eC_ -3 CL a) Q)W (1) Q)(u - -L &-E -Cd) LW U 4-' Q) C - cLA .- S-/ ma (1) 'L. '

ra 0 - 'a 'a 'e I -- L A l.A-L L L.> )>0. ý a- E E E Q) c~ EFc ) =~ Q)J .- ) -0Wa - L- L- L-> raL S- u> c c~ -: a

IV o 1)' L. 0 V 70 w CL 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

*No Response

Page 135: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Saint Lucie

0,

d)O 0)• ~ ~~ ~ V)"- • • Ln v) 5 •

4-. - Q) 0 0 0 0 • 0 • 0 • 0 *-,0 O. 00 '--- C C C C.- ) L J 0 . -- - -L.0 Ln

C 0 r0 -0 re C 0~0 c 04- 4)'s'~-V_ +-)Q 0.. o 0 C0 - 0 *.- o - >> C . o >0 - -- 4.3i u -0 0 L0V 04-) 4-) 0J 4-). 4-' 0 L 0.4-) O.*'n4- .- C

- rz Co r- t. c 4.) *- 0 00 0- 0 -- 0 (L0 *0 4- ) LC-) QV- )) W~ ()) 0 a- 4- 0 0 m-C a _-0 aC c~~- CA- ' 0-.) 0ALI. a C' .-.- .- L- r- 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0v) s LO3. to v f ,0ý tu 4-) = - 4-'0 4-'C3 -P-0 4-)L 0- L (u. (n 0 00)0 o . O C. 4- r- uL C S.- ' . ' IN-SSE 300110 12 3 0a) a) .- 0 cv U 4-' 0) C. VL) *.- *r- .- L s- 0 eaL (V>CLL 30ts0 17 Lo0 185> 3 0W>-S 0 a) 1 E8 5 C30) c Z: a)

uJ0 s- s-> tz s- ra > C C"t 0S0 a)-0 31 2 0) 225 30

------------------------------------------------------------------ -------- I __ -- -D -D

WITHIN TWO MILES

N'-SSE j j_ 301 110 1251.~ 30

WITHIN FIVE MILES______

N-NW 30 170 185 30WNW-SW 30 170 185 30 - -

SSW-SE 30 210 225 30 __

WITHIN TEN MILES

N-NW 30 380 395 30

WNW-SW 30 305 320 30

SSW-SE 30 325 340 30

Page 136: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Sa lem

Ir~

• 0) 0 0 0 0 I-- ' - -E".- 0- 0 ,- - .c c-C c

0 .. 0 -""- .-- 0 .- .0- *, 0.- - -c 0 c 0 0- 0- ct, cJ ry-f M) 4- 'j- j. 0' 4-)C) -0 0l- 4-'0 0 - CL eo r- 0 04- >- -- 4'

.0- .. 4-) •- .4-3. LUJ '• - 0 LLJ• - " "LLJC) - 4- ,) "c" 4- , 0 _-..' 0--.r-4-

4-' ea V) oi 0.. 0- 0 .0 4-' *0 *ý0E r- " .- L C = S- 0 c" 0 r- 0C 0 0 E 0- 0

LI) CL0 eIU u r u, 4-) 4-) 0 4-)C.) 4- 0 4-') -• .- 'Ia s- ol. CL_)E) o- r e0 4-r 'oo c- u r- r_ CL) Ca LA to 0U

CLEa L. c o 0- 0u 0) a)0) -E -0 .0E La) W 4-)- 0 u 1- (a eo. c- :' s- to aC)

C >--- >- ) ro L- 05 L0 ro) 1-0 ro s- S_ >Ljj L s- s- s- > (UL s- Co c~ <) cu

W000 0o 1o 0 0) a) c C- - 0- 0-l:= I-ca- CD! LI)D

WITHIN TWO MILES

E 0 0 0 0 0

SW_8 _ 15 100 1 1 0 0

WITHIN FIVE MILES

NE 468

SE 0

SW 89 15 105 165 120 180 - - _

NW 741 ___ 15 1__ 105 1165 1__ 1_ 120 180_

_________ ________ ____ WITHIN TEN MILES

NE 11451 - - -

SE 1574

SW 3112 30 330 510 360 540

NW 7775 30 330 510 360 540 __ II

Page 137: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

San Onofre

I

4:-

wJ (u w• (D W 2Ln W, U n-

u0) 0) 0) 0) LA CAE CL C C - a a C

L 0 A0• 0 (A 0 0 •0 0 i , •0 •0

in eai in (Ai .0 c: *- LA a t .0

r- 0 C 0 0. c- W.C 0 aC cý0 to 4-1 a4 41-> -04-40 0. 4-) 0 0. m Q 0 0 *, >" >- C " >

C- C~ ..- .-- L 0 0 Li" { 'm0j 04-1 4-3 0) 4-' 4-) 0 0.4 L .. 13.4-' CL -- C- C- a-Cto- Q- 0 r-V ,-n - tA c- 41• • 0 ",- 0 D 0 0 0" C. 0 •0 41 • 0 •0

0) a)n a) Cin C (a~ *10- 0- r- 0-- CL c0 L- :L *0)', E @ C,- ., - u v a- 0 0 0 0 E 0 0

.- a. C UL EU(. u' -mEZ :- L- 41) 0 4-#'C-) 4- ' 0 4-iL.) 0-- --I. a) a-. , . 0,

0) 0 L.- 10 r (a 0 '4- eU CL) C- r CL) C- LA in L, EQ0-0 to. =-a =. CD a)- . cu ww a) - 1 ~ ~

0.>L 0 .- 0 (-( US- in oU sn- s-o s-> 0 0 Z>>0o) m a.E-0 0 ) ~ w ~ .. ~ U

t±J (. S_> EU EU CU S_~ (U a-C :a)0o c -0) s- 0 1-) Ca- 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

All 300

Page 138: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Sequoyah

I

>) rU) U

4-) ) 0 0 0 0 FU ) 0) ''- o o o C• C E C C

I--C 0 0 1 O- U) o0 - .c- '_.- I-- 0..- ca

0 C- cC Q - -0L O r_ l 0 O 4- '0 04-) fO 4-L) '0 4-)

C. z~ C, C -~ .- C.) C 0 C- 0 0 0 JC-aAO . a) Z 4) 0 L ;~--0 "-."- 4-,0 "- L 0 " - 0"a0 "- ", -fa0 CO Lm C CC 4- C o 00 U) "0 0 L0.0.. , .C- - (•,I-0. • •. * O • • (D. 0)-0-- 0 0)0) " - S.- r- c- ,-L0- c--) a) a to 4--0) C_ 0- C ) 0 - O-U c•- O • O.,- , -- .C 0 _=- o .- s- " ro a U)C 0 - 1. -. 0 00 ED

s-C o >C0oU 4):34 -)~ U~ EE-) CE 4-) 0-- a) . L m aoo oa) 0> -0o > LC C_

0)0 0) a 0 S-o . -0 0). 0) 0.. a

_________WITHIN TWO MILESA774 219J 15 30 9 39 r- 0 54.-4 20 -- o0 l

1 & 156014521 L 0 15 30 18 48 n __ 63 93 120 115 135WITHIN FTWE MILES

A 4833 1372 15 30 31 61 76 96 120 115 135

B 1950 553 15 30 I8 48 63 93 120 115 135

C 3341 948 15 30 24 54 69 99 120 115 135

D 3173 1039 15 30 26 56 71 91 120 115 135

WITHIN TEN MILES

A 6840 1941 15 30 88 118 133 163 _18 160 I.9

B 2730 775 15 30 28 58 73 103 1 60

C 8900 2526 15 30 29 59 74 104 180 160 190

D 19020 5398 15 30 82 112 127 157 180 160 I.90..

Page 139: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Surry

I4•

w0) 0 0) 0)0E- C " C 0 ca_ .r- a

CL -J (A V) i (A L (A 0 0 -0 . .0to CLH r ) CL )C r- U 0)C U- c.. a- U" -

C 0 c 0 01 Of c e o W c 0 'O•4-) U4-) -04-) .J 4-)f) 4-) 0 O- 4-) 0 0- ' C 0 "" 0 >, *- • > >

C..-" C" , - L "{) 0 c *.-4-)Z0 u 0 0 " z0C0Q 04-) 4-) 0) 4-' 4-) 0 ý. 4-) CL.- 0. 4-) 0ý -- c Z

C'U aC~ V7 ' CU C -0 - 0 *- 0 0 * ~to r (A c 0 .-- 0 C -- 0 0 0.•00(a 4-- L a CL r- a- 'a C CLc C C.) L .), r , L : .L.

C0 0 0) uw•. s..,H->J r- 0 e- - 0 _ 0, o0 0 E oV') s> 0. ro ) e C V U -1 : " 4-) 0 4- -E C) U, 1 0. U--..a-

ri

WITHIN TWO MILES___A aH 0 o0 C 0 0 0(a 0 0 0 0 0

J-R I240 30 60 90 0 S. 90 120 60 0 0

WITHIN FIVE MILES

A-0 1074 0 135 195 360 0 0 330 495 70 0 0

E-H 3624 0 90 120 240 0 0 210 330 120 180 240

J-M 664 0 90 120 180 0 0 210 270 120 0 0

N-R 138 0 60 60 120 0 0 120 180 60 0 0

WITHIN TEN MILES

A-0 27940 10000 240 300 540 80 140 540 780 480 240 300

E-H 4736 0 120 240 300 0 0 360 420 240 0 0

J-M 4548 0 240 360 450 0 0 600 690 360 0 0

N-R 5283 0 120 270 36Q0.1 0 0 390 480 240 0 0

Page 140: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Three Mile Island

4%

>- r- r- r- I- -. . -

4.1 0 0 0 0 w (• I -• ,-3. (n. C. c r- C"U)) (A (flU) 0 0 "0 0 00L. -L ;6 0 a) W U.- - 'o i L- u J-

of 0 C 0 0 - C C 0 C 0 r4-1 ~4-)>.4- +3 4..O 0- C. 0 ,-- 0 >- c >' C U -'cc C•"'" r.- I 0 r I .- . 4) . .- .4-a I+> J0 J0I 0 c -0 W 4-J 4) GJ4." 4J - 1- 0 m 4-A 0.I'- M0.4 , .- , C , .

•- • m I -- ul -,- I •" u• t-4J - 0- o . x .,- 0o "o I 0 - 0 Z r • J m L.oI-t r-G 0U *-~ M U r- 0- c. faV0- 0V 0 4- 0L) ca aiw U)0.- w w 0 ro 4-2 m -0 0- -Cl -0 m r- CL(.) 0-l. U ~ 0LI0"A E ,r- - c=•- "-,- *.-L. U r r- 0 C- 0 0 0 E 0 0S0. toU tC0 U)U +j =. r S ) 0 4-)U 4.P0 4-) w S.- 1-. CL W.0

s- ~ ~ ~ ~ r o.o o• Ln tAC. • U 4a " .s- • o I .- ) - - -, .,- " .OO E- L0 C- uo 4-- 0 CL) C: L- C U- '0 U) &0-0 S... - -r --. fl W J m C w w w w-- - S.- o S-E t-o-wGJ w s U 4-) w ,- C o .-- - --., I - (U >- L '. 0J

to 0 S.- 0 i,. 0 S co s"S I > 0L> 0> 0 EG w CC) =~ wV -

A) 0 I (U-o i0 L---er 14D) 'w

WITHIN TWO MILES

Dauphin 60160 120 120 180County

WITHIN FIVE MILES

Dauphin n 180 240 480 420 660 300 600County" " '

i -.-

WITHIN TEN MILES

Couphnt _ 360 420 12601 780 1620 1440 2880Coun t

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Page 141: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Trojan

'.0

(fl wl C) Q) 0

>1r- 8 ( ' ' •"- "

4- ' 0 0 0 0 I- CLA I- dn j I--- ) F---L n

E m. Q. CL c. c w c c0. 0. r C-).C-)Ol) Cl) ) )" Cl) .0- *)-, *-- t. " ."

m W c" O O- F--"u 0A acJcQ 0 -r r,0 ~c ~0 et54-3 m~- ' 1-0~-

U*) 40 a_ 4-0 L 0 cl 0 0 ' >- C >. >

r--0 . z~- _0, . u- U-0 LZ0 -0 U4 J

C0 4J4~ +J WJ4J 4-' .- 0 04-' 0--- 0. 4-' L.~- c c c aic- o C-l) CA ,- Ccl) L A 0- 0- 0- 00 *0 0 4- •0 *0

,( D uL,- wo ( 0 m 4- CL_ " L_ C_ M- a a 0.c-) 0.._ ,u 0.L.) 0.LEJ E' C'- r "Z -- *,- s- u Co 0 a 0 0 0 E 0 0

V/) s-0 CL U to0 u o CL )nu 4-') = - 4-) 0 4- L.) 4-)'0 +-') u Q-- - J 0) CL a.)

a) E .- s- o C _- "u 0 -- to C)- c -.) c co - )a L..- c F-0-CL ýcU :3Z m. 0L 4) ) w ) Q)0a) - L &.. -E s-5

0) 0) s- 0) u +-' a) C - a CAl .- - .- u COL ilo q roL s- u

CL ~ m-- vL 0 s- co vo toS-LA t~o L S.- .- 0 5> 0 0 >

>. ~ C E E E (D c E c: (V (V = 'a 2ý -)U~U0LiC s-- s- > vOL s- > Cu >' 0- c

Q) W L. 0 L1- -a 0V)iD__ __ __CLZ CLc F- Z F-' V) (A

WITHIN TWO MILES

W-ENE 606 205 J2100 57 41 61 98 118 60

E-WSW 852 227 2100 45 37 56 82 101 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WNW-N 3266 1179 2100 120 103 123 223 243 60

NNE-E 1637 623 2400 82 56 71 138 153 60

ESE-S 2245 950 2100 106 52 70 158 176 60

SSW-W 1171 562 1800 43 56 76 99 116 60

WITHIN TEN MILES

WNW-N 54040 1810. 3600 86 255 272 1 341 358 120 220 281

NNE-E 3850 136" 2400 277 82i 12n 359 397 120I

ESE-S 4522 161 2100 103 73 q2 17A- 120

SSW-W 2214 911 2400 66 62 R& 128 147 1L

Page 142: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Turkey Point

CD

- c - - F V--) , ) - 0) - L,) "ECL C CL CL *-*

4-3 w) 0) 0 - a) 0 I

L n4 ) 0 - 1 0 -a _ m 0) I >) >) I 0 J C1 ) '0 J- 0 C 0 0. I-c D. C 0 . 4-0 LL'4-0 . 4, 'U4- L'

c'- r- 0 " c 0" c0 .0r- 0 ". L U•0 0-Z CL u JV

c u c)- - V-) a )+ - 4 - ' 0 - a - - ' _ 0 C L 0 - 4 - ' Q - c C J CL L * Cu 0..- J u- 0C - 0C 0-) 0-C Eu 0C)0,,) -. m. , ro C o&A 0 . .- 4-)o 0o 4 uo * 0

a)) 0~ E. s- 0 r- f,-L 0 4- 0o a 0- 0 0:() c E 0s00 -- 4 -- 0a[ - m -CL uo ) a a4 - 0 4 )) 0 -aj - s -) s - 0 - 0)0 E" .5 C) c - co.- -U .4- (A C L) Co CL) C >U*.M. uS. 0 S.- ra ea to s- toU (nS.- s.-. L >>0) z 0' E E E C E C-.) a)• a), .. U 7 L-o

Lu J- s--S.- s- (aL. mo> Cc~ - c-a)0o Q)V V-0 V)0)-~~0 - I a- __ __0z - I- ~~C CD

WITHINTWO MILES

N-SSE 30 90 105 60

WITHIN FIVE MILES

N-NW 30 100 115 60

WNW-SW 30 9L 110 60

SSW-SE 30 90 105 60

WITHIN TEN MILES

N-NW 30 255 270 60

WNW-SW 30 365 380 60

SSW-SE 30 90 105 60

Page 143: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Vermont Yankee

w

(1) a) .0) CLA 0) LA AA EC " - C -'. . - .C-

4-J. a) 0 0 0 0 .A CA a)I- 0A _ I aE L 0L _ oL C C

U S-.A .A0-- 'U .0 0 00 L-n "0'I) Q) cU 0C 42) a) 0~C 0 *- I '

C 0 " 0 CIL 0C n0 (X - 0 '4 4-' 0 4-0 '. 4-• 0 4-0.) - 0 ' - ' 0 C t 0 - " 0 > -. >-- t3 C >•.cc: " - - . ) 0 C **.- 0 .- .0..) UJ0 D J0 0 L0 0C) 0)D- 4- Q) 4-) *.L J L- 0- 4-4) 0-. Q'. O.- C C C

C'0 CU 2 Cu CA 4-) - 0 O0 0- 0V 0 *;0 4-)Eo CW CU a) 0 '4 4-' C1. L r- CL 0- C OL UL 1z 0t. CA

LI) E~ C z 2 = 0)0ý ' z U rt$ 0 0 0 0 E 0 00S- 0. E - LO C :3- &- 4-J 0 4 U 4-) 0 4-C C .) - Q- W-

a) 0 E:= C) - C 0 " o 0 L-) 0"0) " - 0_ 0 .- s ,. C -1.C, CL S- "o- :3 4-r Q) - a) a -• )U) ( 421-. • 2- ) .- 43J '420)

10 S42L 0 S-. .4 ro SoL I~O ' -0 1> -) >>0 CU a- E E SO- CVaE C c) 0u a)- 'a~ Q0

LLJ a. S. L. S-> ro S fu > C C' <) (1)a)0 o J a) 0 a- ) a) a- 0

i) V)

WITHIN TWO MILES

P-E 2060 687 35 69 78T35

F-N 218 35 70 80

WITHIN FIVE MILES

C-F 2240 1160 35 76 9245

G-K 850 460 35 74 84

L-P 500 360 35 18 36 53 81451

Q-B 3400 1640 1200 35 70 85

WITHIN TEN MILES

C-F 3100 23601 15 _ 32 64,67 1E10I67 11094

G-K 1 6800131801 5111 16235

L-P 1150 820 -35 26 52 61 9745

Q-B 1445016106 1200 35 180 18045

Note: Evacuation times only reported for controlling condition, either generalevacuation or special;facilities evacuation

* Normal (Top)/Adverse (Bottom)

population

Page 144: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Yankee Rowe

wU,

*a) O) 0) cu C)jCA IA 0 (c c 0- 0- C- in

S .0 0 0 i0

0. 0- ro I- - a~~n LAC ' JnGC U' .~- ~ 0 JC L 4 :- 0 )• a)- .c a " ( ) C ) U , " L - , - - '

c 0 C 0 0. - - C r- 0 ,- 0 '4-j 14-j '4- •4-(I •4-) 0. 0,JO 0- a C 0 "- 0 '- > >"- C >" >Cl. 4-.- .) 0 C LLJ •- .LJ0 -CD a) 4- 4-' a) 4 4.) 0 0. 4-' 0--G 0. 4- 0-. C; C .0CC'a r-A - C( Cn 4-' - 0- 0 0 0 -0 .4) *0 *

z"• "• " l - • " 0 "• 0 0 "• 0 c ca 0 4J L C• 0 - L.0l ,"-- 0 w 0) . C 1a) 0 (V -) 0-" 0QC- C.-. 0- L.'.) ,-) ' i 0--) 0..'Ll E r- o r' 0 C 0 0 0 .E Oct L 0 Qa 'ac 8 Au :3J .!2 4-1 0 4-J (.) 4-J 0 4JiLU 0--~ .1Ld) L -

QJ E-- L0 C~ a 4- roa CL) C CL) CL0 A - 0 CAC -0 E to 0 - S- E - S-d cd) Lda z = - d CL (Ao)4 -j 4) 'a) 'd 'a 0 'a0> -'rL 0 to Ma' 'aL CnA 0fl L > 0 -O '>

> cu 2 - E E Ed4) , - E C d) Wj d0 G.. -'LLI0L LL &- S-> 110 'a> c 0-a)0o d)0a SO L~d - 0-" Q

0 0- ~ C -~ D Lfl If

WITHIN TWO MILES

Q-F 9 2790 - 7 134'

G-P 225 go 2790 435 7113WITHIN FIVE MILES

B-E 42 192 2790 13 26415

F-J 315 154 2790 18 3735

K-N 240 114 2790 35 19 3735

P-A 530 114 2790 4- 21 41

WITHIN TEN MILES

B-E 1650 660 2790 35 41 82

45F-J 1400 560 2790 3 37 75

35

K-N 13175 5270 2790 3 55 110

P-A 700 280 2790 32l F64 I

* Normal Conditions Top Figure - Adverse Conditions Bottom Figure

Page 145: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Zimmer

ul

(• ~~ ~ LA O I- nI- •0-) 0 )0 0) 0 CA CALA L.C• CL M.C C r" _ C "a. " C l• . •

LA I- I 0 " n 0 , i -n - " 0 0I

0. -, 0'.- 1-O {"flr- I A . IJ . IAIA J.0 UJ0l *'- 0.I' L.0It 0 0 ao C C .I C a) Ua- Ia L. aa -- "LA 0 IL 0. r_ W. w C 0c - r .4-3 •3 I •Z• O •

-C a.-. 0 C ". . LA-" L-, ,'0 • I • O.-C ) 4-' 4-3 0)4- 4 -'+ 02 04-' 0 ~ 4-' C_. C 2 J L

L.o a 0" C;; '- '-- 00 0-- - 0 .0 -0 4-'-- 0U.- a) •- .a0)0) 0 e- 4-) O t a rC L r-C C_ L to 0LU 0-.)E* ICU- C .- -* *L U e Ca 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0Ln0 'SU CL0 eov o L U +.)' :3S 4-' 0 4-') U 4-' 0 4-) C-) Qil- Qw S_ 0 - CL 0UCU)0 E- L-0 C.- ra0 '4- (0 C L) a r_) C aA Lna L

0.x M.. :30 = CL 0. 0) 0) 0) 0j ) r; -L s- -E -01 U a'',0) C - C (A .- ° 0 v "S 0)

l . eaL 0 L_ ro t roLS AC .. r uL. S_0 S..> 0 0 >>" • 0- E E E Ci c E a a) •) ' I -) 4 QL .J Q S -. S- -> toL ea C C' ) (>)_

-D -. 0 L

WITHIN TWO MILES

- - I 15 * 60 65E609 185 25 20 -65 1 10 TT s ws

15 60 65W 359 109 80 64 65 _ 115 65

,, :W1THIN FIVE MILES

N 1 510 25 20 80 16-0 185- 8015 100 125

E 1417 431 25 20 8- 10 160 18---5 -

15 100 125s 858 260 80 64 120 1_ - _ 230 120

100 125 1 7W 12461 379 80 64 70 15--5 T 70 180

WITHIN TEN MILES

45 175 235N 12788 3887 475 380 140 265 325 140

45 155 205E 6515 1980 25 20 _ 280 5__ 3

45 155 205S 2303 700 580 189 300 7-1 1 410 455 000

-4 1 580 155 205 -

W 47741451580 189 110 1 1 1. - 6J 6 110

* Prompt (Top)/Without Prompt- Notification System (Bottom)

Page 146: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Zion

lJ

UI'

Ln Ln Ln

-. a) 0 0 0 0 --7- 0 L ) t- 'L

4- C• C Cl i LA L • 0d)i in cui .0 .0 *- 0u r0

I-- wi• n wc or" u, O)C• U- u .- I- UO•CAC 0 c 0 . i- of C Q 0 Of c cl 0 .O 4- 'V 4-' 10 4 -,

./ 4-' 0 0O" > " >4J L > > --C '-. -..- C0 C . • • . 4J L 0 L 0 0>L i Ci0 ' -I0)4-' .-. ) • JI} - 0 04- Q..,- 0•.4- 0-.- C C .,-- €-

C) ~ u) .(QCC 0~ *- 0-- 4-o 0..-; o -o "0 L 0 'a .0)-- a" LO t"n, t -u .• " 0 "• 0 _0 0 ,- 0 •0 4- •ý 0 0

cu ( Q) 0- 4-) C., 'aL 0CL L- 0 C-. c -~ CL ro C-) (~= E =3 C - ."- " - .i L- (a c 0 0 0 0 E 0 0Ln i ( uI uo t tu CL Ln UJ 4 -3 "3 &- a- 0 C-L cu• _) (-- _Qj • .cu 0 E - - ""- c o 0 ra c (. c c" C in -- co ,IA0-.0. a_ .. s -0 rfC :3 m a) a) a) 0 a) d)w - L. ~E

D u - - - - - ( u u 4-3 C- - c L .- . o -- C a) s-, - t a0)c el- 0 Lo o et$ rU to - LA •L- L > 0 S-0 "C->>) cu 0C E E E a) r- Co) c Z 0 ..: UJ ZL L> raL ro> cu~

-L a_ _-s -:-

WITHIN TWO MILES

j 28700 8735 435 35f 30 20 300 720

WITHIN FIVE MILES

1,11 38355 11750 660 531 30 20 360 720

1,111 4910015640 6140 4915 45 20 360 720

WITHIN TEN MILES

I,II,IV 11870% 3853ý 2709 21700 45 20 11260 720

I,III,V 15000( 4879 3909(31275 60 20 480 1440

Page 147: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

APPENDIX C

DEFINITION OF EVACUATION TIME COMPONENTS

C-I

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Page 149: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

The term "evacuation time" is used by different analysts to represent

different components of the time between detection of an incident and the

completion of an evacuation. For the purpose of this study, evacuation time

is divided into several components. This allows comparison of the same

components among the various sites.

The components of evacuation time are defined as follows:

Notification Time = The time required to get the evacuation notification to

all individuals in the specified area.

Preparation Time = The time required for individuals to prepare to evacuate

the specified area.

Response Time = The time required for all individuals to physically move out

of an area. This time component is shown separately for permanent

residents (PPR) and for transients (TPR). Furthermore, separate

estimates are also possible for normal (NC) and adverse conditions (AC).

The four possible response time components are: PPRNC, PPRAC, TPRNC and

TPRAC.

General Population Evacuation Time = The sum of notification, preparation and

response (both permanent and transient populations) times. Separate

totals would be made for normal (GPTNC) and adverse (GPTAC) weather

conditions. In most cases the total is an arithmetic sum of component

times; in a few cases the total is a statistical sum of component

distributions.

Special Population Respone Time = The time required to evacuate institutions

and the time required by other special conditions that are largely

independent of general population evacuation times. An example of a

special condition is the evacuation time required for recreational

C-3

Page 150: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

pleasure boats at sites adjacent to bodies of water. Separate estimates

are possible for normal (SPRNC) and adverse (SPRAC). weather conditions.

In addition to the above evacuation time components, confirmation time

estimates have also been required.

Confirmation Time = The period of time required to verify that the affected

population has departed. It may occur concurrently or subsequent to

evacuation. It is not considered an evacuation time component.

C-4

Page 151: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

APPENDIX D

EVALUATION FORMS FOR FEMA ASSESSMENTS

D-1

Page 152: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates
Page 153: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Beaver Valley*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map - X

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered _

Overall X

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

D-3

Page 154: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Indian Point*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map XB. Assumptions XC. Methodology -

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient PopulationC. Special Population .

Traffic Routingx

A. Map of Network XB. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered X-B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

D-4

Page 155: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Maine Yankee*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -

B. Assumptions XC. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population XC. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X -

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered X

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall X

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

D-5

Page 156: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Millstone*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Backgroundx

A. Area MapB. Assumptions X - -

C. Methodology X -

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population X -

C. Special Population -

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X -

B. Capacity of Segment X

Analysis

A. Components Considered XB. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

D-6

Page 157: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Three Mile Island*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map

B. Assumptions _

C. Methodology X

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population XB. Transient Population -X

C. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X -

B. Capacity of Segment -

Analysis

A. Components Considered X -

B. Adverse Condition Considered

Overall X

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

D-7

Page 158: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVALUATION OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

Zion*

Item Excel. Adeq. Poor None

Background

A. Area Map -X

B. Assumptions X

C. Methodology -

Demand Estimation

A. Permanent Population -- -

B. Transient PopulationC. Special Population

Traffic Routing

A. Map of Network X-

B. Capacity of Segment

Analysis

A. Components Considered -

B. Adverse Condition Considered X

Overall X

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

D-8

Page 159: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

APPENDIX E

SUMMARY OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATESFOR FEMA ASSESSMENTS

E-1

Page 160: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates
Page 161: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Beaver Valley*

a 0) 0) w) a) 0) cu(fl ul L E E

4-) 0) 0 0 0 0 FJ nI*u LE M- M M

'LA n 0 " " 0 C- 0 CI -0 -w ' w.- C Wc 0 .n v = .A-- 0 .-- " . * "

C 0 "- 0 a cc: 0 0 ; M 4 M

0 -** -) .- .4J LLI'a Luv 'a 0 UCD a 0) - P a)0J- 4-J - 0 L 04-) M.- 0-P- CL-- C C a C

r- to a LA f Aa 4J0- a0- 0, 0~ .0 .. 0 * .*to(a 4) 0 -r- 0-" C 0C)u Q-Cu M0 0-) 0CL

E C- 7" 'A -- .S- U to* C 0 C 0 0 0 2 0 0CL (- LOU C00 (AU 4-) - 4-) 0 4j1) 4-) 0 4-1 L.) CL-- 0a) (u -~ 00

oo 2 E- $-o C. (a0 ~4- fu CL C C-r-L) C: ' LA '0 UQ-0-L S-C = -0 CL ( :3 : 0- a, )) 0) w a) 0) -j E s- - -E &-

0).. a-) U 4-) r- v~) - S-Lf '01 'o 0 ~ '0)

•-Z (- - Z -- • Ln• tuF-~ L.L 0 L. (a CA S-l ~n0 uL10 L > 0 0 ~>

>- a)E E C)r-E C-aw, Q) ý0j =) Li -ujD0 M S- 1> '01S- f> r- a<

0)- 0 =,v 10 I-D0 0) V,0- 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

All R4290 20 243 252

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

Page 162: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Indian Point*

m

G) a) G) Q) (u a) cu 0)in kA in in E E E

4..- Q) 0 0 0 0 F- I ,- L -a) .- A '1

u Ln (A (A. i l (n 0 * " * * 0 - 0 "0 - F- Q) ifl a in LA ---- F- , -

C L F C" r (Y. 0 t a 0 C,00(a 41 .- "• 0 4-3 0 Z .1 44-JO 0 Q 4-J 0 a- a) 0 . 0> >, C > - >

Ca ~ -L 0 C; >. -4. 0 W, -a. LO LzJ zJ LI-U0) cu.. Z - a).) Z~ Ca- 0L 0-4- CL. --- i- C C *,C C C

F- Ca Cto a r CLA C- 4n 0 0-o0 0- 0-0 0 .0 4.. .'0 0u- aC )) in. aj a) .0 to .. Lj '0 aC C -aO Q-C a t-) CL) U 0-C- Q.L

U ES a-- C- ""--- I-S. - faC C" 0 C 0 0 0 E 0 0V) S-IO. ro , -C o U -w - S- 4-) 0 4-) LL.) +) 4 0 4n- . LL 0 -0) 0 """ 0a-C )

a)0o E~ 0 C. o 0 4- C'V C ML.) C a a L in(00 --. -CL Q). aE (D a)00 ) a)0a) S- - - i~ E -S-S-0 Q-) u- (D C - aCin L n C cC)I-> S- 0 5 u-aS 0Cr fuL inC iL- 0 S- > Q ~

>0Q) Z E. ES SQ) cE aCC) Q)~ a)~ 'a U~ 2--1.1)0- S-- L- > CCL &- o> C a~ < ) a)C

Q) 0 aiD -0 0 -- a c) (D CL 0

________ ____WITHIN TWO MILES

_________ ____WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

All 28407 510 520

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

Page 163: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Mai. ne Yankee*

LA CA Ln ,A E E Ea 0 0 0 0 V) F- 0 a w" 0-" 0E CL CL M C

'a (a 0 i-0."I C U E; - C

0. I " o- -" •-- , r $- .. oJ u" 0c wu" 0 0 *0 - 0 *0

C 0 CL 0 .- D~C w 0 MC MJ 4J 1~- 0 4-)-/) 4-A0 a_ oj 0 -L C 0 - 0 > >

L). 0 C -*- Z-' L>.-a1>0 w-0 0 LuJ alUC (U-Z 4- Cu-" 4r 0 L 0 4 J CL.- '.4-) L -"- C C - C C

to~ r-(A r-( C() C 4- -0- 0 C 0- 0VCý *0 *0. 0 *0o) (u 4-0- - - - () Gotju 4J =L)- 0CL)

0L ," 4 ,- a ,, 0-, Q_ C• u. ro " •",,•(]

S E CWITHN CV 0 CL0 0 0 E 0 0LI) S- L 0. ua (0 CL 0U 4-) : - S- 4-) 0 4-)LU 4J0 +4.jL 0Q.- r; 0-J di S 0- 0; - a

• 0 Epa- -0 o .r ro 0 '4- (0 CL C CFM Cn (A tr-a L00-(1 - _rC F-C a- .M = = 0. a) a)JO (u ( JW -iaj E .- LS t:. E iS-

Wa) LW U- 4) udi C - C (A -~ - ( -- 0 - etda) QdL rUI- o rUL o - c0 1- S.- V) rrL ( (AL S - -0 L-> 0 0 ">

> Q) a E E EO CjaE C ua, OJZ a-D -0Z ~(440 Q-S- S- > toL S- to> C C~ < CLurU

(uo Q) 0 LO S-10 a) 0) CL 0L

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

__________WITHIN TEN MILES

All 7874 13701 315 380

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

Page 164: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Millstone*

m

Lu l L U) E E EC- C- C- C- , - ., - .• - ,-

41' 0- 0 0 0 0 I-id" tA •" - Cla) . CL 0. 0.L C E C C

u"{--t-, - 0 t • I+ .4if .0' *O• *- *•o .00. 0. ra r- *- (A . C L " u .- ;a 0 C_ 0 0a. F- 1= C w0 =C a x0 M 4-J re- '4-) '4-J4J 0- O 3- +j 0 0L CC 0 - 0 >' >' > : >

0ý a) 4- 4- a) 4- 4-' 0 0.-' 0.- 04-) 0--- - CJ CI *,- cL C L L-_ to C 0 .,- ' CU- 0 a " 0 - 0"0 0 .- 0- .0 0 4-j . 0 .0

u 0 to )0 U)- a) 0 '0 4-' 0- -0 0CL_ 0-O 0Q-C Oa- CL M~ CA.. 0.L)Lu E C"- C" .r- S- U ra C- "0 C- 0 0 0 E 0 0(I) L0c. M 0 M00 C )L C 4-)~ = S 4-' 0 4-$L) 4J0 j CL) 0- C 0i CL- CL. 4-)a) 0 E.-ý L0 Cr.-. fu 0 "4-' ca C- C CL C u r- cca-- L.. -a 0. 0C -a =x - ca. Cu D J a) aiw) Qj-E -i y -E -a)) w0 S..w u 4-) o) C - CU Ln -~U rOL S- MO~ '00aCL - a - 0 S- co ea ru$ Ln S- 0 S-> 0 .3 0 .- >

>0 G Z Q. E E EW a) r- -a) o)~ 2-1 *D CJ0 U 0Li-OL L.~ S S..> eu~ '0 > C r-~ a) a)

0) 0 W-0 L0 L.t a) 4) 0. 0.a- a 0-r =- ý C CD Ln V)

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

All 2860J 20 319 204

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

Page 165: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

ThreeMile Island*

4 J G 0 ,)1 0. 0 o.

0. - LA •- - 0 0 _ 0 ..t. L -, l-----n w C 1'- .0 -C 0 M Q r ~0 r_ 0Wf0I TW VI4L +S

+j 0J 0- +-)0 0. to C 0 1- 0 .- > -- > >C >~r-C-r-.- U~ 0 4J .4 -.' *4 WJ WD 0L W0 Wu-

41 4)4J 4f) G4V j 4"J 0 L 04-1 0.-- CL4-% CL- C C a~CF- a M CI *'a M C-In r, 4J . 0 .- 01V0 - OV 0 0 *0 4. 0 *

wa (uG kA - 0) (u 0 to 4.. C"0 CL C M v o- C Q-. L C L.) (a 0L) 0L)W I C- FIE 0 0E 0 E 0 0

cA 11,- 0 C- (a0 4- 20 C - 0 2L0CL CL to r- L) C to (A

(1)G S.O. 4) 40) OJ *- S- j0.> 5-> 'aS. 0 . ' 'L i n to E- to> co "0 j

>GJ Zo L. EC. 0 E C) 0J --- > i iLLJO 0aS 'a SE >' to > u

a) 0 WJ 1-0 M- ) d . 0

WITHIN TWO MILES

WITHIN FIVE MILES

WITHIN TEN MILES

All .19550 20 180 202

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

Page 166: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

Zion*

0 CA 0 ,0 E E E

>1 C. C a C "-" ".4- u0 0 0 0 0 I-l t-u Ln V)-u

" E 0 0L 0- 0. 0, . C C0a 0. U L .u u uC a• -U .a) .C- I- U .0-

4 0 4-C 0 a- u, 0 .C- 0.-- > - > ",- >'-

0C- * ,.; .. .. ,- .C -"t 0,, 0 4-" ""tC) 43 - C-L 4J) CL -- CL0 . 4-3 CL -- C' a. " (C "o C a 4 C- 4-) " 0 -0 0-4 - 0a " 0.4-' 04-- 0 C * 0

.o Cv Q -LA 0 4- 4-) a- o- o CL- C C- Qo 0- ro (.-) C *0 -)L&) E a---) C -- - U C C 0 C 0 0 0. E 0 0V. .L a o CL o - J ::= S- - 4-' 0 4-iJ 4-) 0 4-I)U 0- • .- ) - a_, CL 0)

CLC -ý - 0 3-CL ) a a) Ca) Ci (u E'cu Q) -S- u 4-3 a) C r u) .- -. .-- u( ru ro a) M: S---- - r O (v ro 0 SL- (A ( v. .- 0 i.> o "0 >

> c a . E E E C c E C" w Z "a- ,.. U L)"uj 0i S- > (-- fa .-- > C ) < ( a)

Q)0 o u 0 LO 0 1 0.) ( 0 0. 01.

WITHIN TWO MILES

All 220

WITHIN FIVE MILES

All 220

WITHIN TEN MILES

All 24000( 285 350

*Estimate prepared by FEMA contractor.

Page 167: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

DISTRIBUTION

OFFSITE

(1) A. A. ChurmD.O.E. Patent Division98005 Cass AvenueArgonne, Ill. 60439

(300) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionDivision of Technical Information

and Document Control7920 Norfolk AvenueBethesda, MD. 20014

(2) D.O.E. Technical Information Center

(10) S. L. Ramos, ChiefEmergency Preparedness Development BranchU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission7920 Norfolk AvenueBethesda, MD. 20014

ONSITE

(30) Pacific Northwest LaboratoryW. A. Glass (1)J. M. Selby (1)T. H. Essig (1)A. E. Desrosier (20)Publishing Coordination (2)Technical Information (5)

Page 168: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates
Page 169: NUREG/CR-1856, 'An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates

NRC FORM 335 1. REPORT NUMBER A$sSigned by DDC)(7-77) U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION NUREG/CR-1856, Vol. 1

BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA SHEET PNL-36624. TITLE AND SUBTITLE (Add Volume No., if Hpropriate) 2. (Leave blank)

An Analysis of Evacuation Time Estimates Around 52 NuclearPower Plant Sites 3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.

7. AUTHOR(S) 5. DATE REPORT COMPLETED

MONTH YEAR

Thomas Urbanik II October 19809. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND MAILING ADDRESS (Include Zip Code) DATE REPORT ISSUED

Texas Transportation Institute Under subcontract to MONTH I YEAR

The Texas A&M University System Pacific Northwest Laboratory May 1981

College Station, TX 77843 Richland, WA 99352 6. (Leave blank)

8. (Leave blank)

12. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND MAILING ADDRESS (Include Zip Code)

Office of Inspection and Enforcement _oPROJECT/TAK/WORKUNTNO.

Division of Emergency Preparedness 11. CONTRACT NO.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission FIN B2311Washington, DC 20555

13. TYPE OF REPORT PERIOD COVERED (Inclusive dares)

January 1980 - October 1980

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. (Leave blank)

16. ABSTRACT (200 words or less)

On November 29, 1979, the NRC sent a letter to 52 nuclear power plants requestingevacuation time estimates for 10 sectors within a 10-mile radius of each plant. Therequirements for these evacuation times are contained in NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, andinclude such factors as population density, weather conditions, warning time, responsetime and confirmation time. Fifty responses were received. The analysis of thesefindings are presented for review.

17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS 17a. DESCRIPTORS

17b, IDENTIFIERS/OPEN-ENDED TERMS

18. AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 19. SECURITY CLASS (This report) 21. NO. OF PAGESUncI asrfied

20. tFCUfITY CASSdThis page) 22. PRICEUnlimited unc iassITi le! s

NRC FORM 335 17-77)

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