LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

Numerical modeling of air quality: also a challenge for scientists south

of Río Grande!

Laura Gallardo

Centro de Modelamiento Matemático, Universidad de Chile, UMI CNRS 2087, Casilla 170-3, Santiago, Chile,

lgallard@dim.uchile.cl

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

“...Andando en un camino encontré al aire, lo saludé y le dije...no sé quién eres, pero una cosa te pido, no te vendas...” El libro de las odas, Pablo Neruda

Outline• Air quality: VERY complex

problemS…

• One of many tools: air quality models

• Which is the situation South of Río Grande?

• What’s next?: A challenge and an opportunity

• Summary

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

A very important (The most important) air The most important) air pollution problem in South America pollution problem in South America is associated to the continental is associated to the continental scale biomass burning during the scale biomass burning during the dry season. With over a hundred of dry season. With over a hundred of thousands of fires each year …thousands of fires each year …

MODIS Rapid Response System

08/25/2002 – 14:15UTC

Freitas et al, 2004

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu26 - 2926 - 29 26 - 2926 - 29

Simulation Simulation 23 – 31/ August/ 23 – 31/ August/

20022002

Aeronet data:Aeronet data:Cordoba and Cordoba and Buenos AiresBuenos Aires

Affecting far beyond Amazonia

Freitas et al, 2004

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

Also ENORMOUS point sources of pollutants…again, not only health issues

Wood et al, VOCALS plan 2005; Huneeus et al, 2006

Chuquicamata ~106GgS/yr

CDNC

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And impresive and badly characterized natural sources e.g., volcanic fumarolic emissions

LGK Apr'06 IguazuCredit: C. Mayhew & R. Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/ NGDC,

DMSP Digital Archive

M-cities in SCA

> 75% of South Americans live

in M-cities!!

The M-city issue in SCA

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

Living in M-cities…for some rather wealthy but not that healthy!

BogotáSantiago

São Paulo•M-cities gather problems and increase vulnerability …from health issues to climate change

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

Often a bad combination of factors and events/decisions…

¡Fértil provincia!

Santiago del Nuevo Extremo, Valle central de Chile

72W 71.5W 71W 70.5W 70W 69.5W 69W 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Santiago

Andes Cordillera

Pacific High/Coastal Lows

+ 6 M inhabitants and growing60% of Chile’s economic activityLousy transportation system

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

In most cities, environmental policies are targeted at first towards diminishing acute health impacts

•Emission inventories are compiled•Monitoring networks are implemented•Measures are enforced, i.e., point sources are reduced•Environmental standards or guidelines are adopted

Sao Paulo, Brazil

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

When the objectives become more ambitious (long-term impacts, more expensive and less obvious measures, etc.)•Emission inventories have to be more accurate and be used in combination with models•Regional monitoring networks are needed•Efforts are oriented towards traffic emissions and planning

Santiago, Chile

LGK Apr'06 IguazuA SYSTEMIC APPROACH IS NEEDED: air quality modeling is one of the many concurring tools…

Molina & Molina, 2002

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SQcct

c

)'vc'.(-v..v

Dispersion and transformations

Emissions Removal

+IC & BC

Lavoisier, 1789

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constM

constE

amF

)'vc'.(-v..v

ccT SQC

Emission inventoriesObservations

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From molecular interactions to planetary waves...all at once!

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Are there any models around?...

PLENTY!!!!• WRF• MATCH• BRAMS• POLYPHEMUS• UAM-V• CAMx• CMAQ• KAMM• etc

DGF/WRF

CMM/MATCH/POLYPHEMUS

PUC/CAMx

DMC/POLYPHEMUS

USACH/CAMx

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Computers have become affordable and there are fast connections

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

In most M-cities where attainement plans have been developed, there are:

• Emission inventories for particulate matter, NOx, SOx,CO, HC, etc.

• Air quality data for “criteria pollutants” (CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, etc.)

• Methodologies change from city to city and even from year to year within a city

• Calibration and validation procedures and traditions differ a lot among cities

• Data are not always easily accessed

• The foci in analyses and sampling is very local and related to acute health issues

• These data are not included in global data bases

• Lack of PEOPLE and coordination!!!!

There is information

…But

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

What’s next?• Training and building of networks

– Short and long-term (PhD) training and exchange programs– Symposia and Conferences

– Connecting with global programs: ESSP…IGBP…IGAC• Developing regional capabilities

– Regional monitoring network and database (GAW/GURME)– Regional emission network and database (GEIA/AIMES)– Regional computer center and network (CLARA…)

• Finding key questions/problems– Biomass burning…pyrocumulus– Megacities…data assimilation– Megasources…aerosol-cloud-climate– Etc.

IGAC workshop Oct 2005 @ Santiago de Chile

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

A dear case: South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate

(SAEMC, 2006-2010)• To provide accurate regional

emissions and climate change scenarios for South America, with emphasis on the impacts of and on megacities.

• To establish the basis for operational chemical weather forecast for South American megacities.

• To strengthen and expand an active research and capacity building network in the Americas functional to Earth System Modeling.

• Mobile and Stationary emissions scenarios estimate and evaluation

• Dynamical down-scaling of climate change scenarios

• Pilot implementation of chemical weather forecast network and tools for South American megacities

• Prospective characterization of aerosols in and downwind from South American megacities.

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

Summary

To take over the

world!

•Air quality modeling capabilities exist and they keep growing in the region, but there are few people•There are growing needs for AQM applications•There is an appalling lack of observations and reliable emission data•Regional capabilities must be developed•Networking and collaboration are the key steps forward

LGK Apr'06 Iguazu

See you in Cape Town, September 17-23, 2006!!http://www.atmosphericinterfaces2006.co.za/