WHAT IS NUCLEAR MAINSTREAMING? DOES PAKISTAN

NEED IT?DR TUGHRAL YAMIN

ASSOCIATE DEAN CIPS

NUSTPAPER READ AT THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PEACE & STABILITY

ORGANIZED BY FATIMA JINNAH WOMEN UNIVERSITY RAWALPINDI22-24 SEPTEMBER 2016

WHAT ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?• NUCLEAR WEAPON. AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE THAT DERIVES

ITS DESTRUCTIVE FORCE FROM NUCLEAR REACTIONS, EITHER FISSION (FISSION BOMB) OR A COMBINATION OF FISSION AND FUSION (THERMONUCLEAR WEAPON).

• EFFECTS. A NUCLEAR DEVICE NO LARGER THAN TRADITIONAL BOMBS CAN DEVASTATE AN ENTIRE CITY BY BLAST, FIRE, AND RADIATION. NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE CONSIDERED WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

• USE. NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE BEEN USED TWICE IN HISTORY BY THE US AGAINST JAPAN

– ON AUGUST 6, 1945, A URANIUM GUN-TYPE FISSION BOMB (LITTLE BOY) WAS DETONATED OVER THE JAPANESE CITY OF HIROSHIMA

– ON AUGUST 9, A PLUTONIUM IMPLOSION-TYPE FISSION BOMB (FAT MAN) WAS DETONATED OVER THE JAPANESE CITY OF NAGASAKI.

– APPROXIMATELY 200,000 CIVILIANS AND MILITARY PERSONNEL DIED

• ACADEMIC DEBATE. USE AND CONTROL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS HAVE BEEN A MAJOR FOCUS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS POLICY SINCE THEIR DEBUT

WHO ALL POSSESS NUCLEAR WARHEADS?

WHAT ARE THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS DELIVERY MEANS?

HOW ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS SEEN?• AS SYMBOLS OF POWER &

PRESTIGE

• AS MEANS OF DETERRENCE

• AS A SOURCE OF THREAT BY:

– NON NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES (NWS)

– NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES (NNWS)

– PACIFISTS

– ENVIRONMENTALISTS

WHY INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR NON PROLIFERATION REGIME?

• NUCLEAR NON PROLIFERATION REGIME HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED TO KEEP THE NUCLEAR CLUB AN EXCLUSIVE ENTITY

• THE NWS WOULD NOT LIKE ANY HORIZONTAL PROLIFERATION

• MAIN PILLARS OF THE REGIME ARE – NPT

– CTBT

– FMCT

WHAT IS NPT?• INTERNATIONAL TREATY (OPENED

FOR SIGNATURES 1 JULY 1968;ENTERED INTO FORCE 5 MARCH 1970)

• 191 MEMBERS• INDIA, ISRAEL, PAKISTAN &

SOUTH SUDAN ARE NON SIGNATORIES

• DPRK OPTED OUT OF IT• NPT RECOGNIZES TWO KINDS OF

SIGNATORIES: NWS & NNWS• NWS AGREE NOT TO GIVE NW OR

NW TOOLS TO NNWS• NNWS AGREE NOT TO RECEIVE

SUCH MATERIAL

• NNWS HAVE INALIENABLE TO NUCLEAR POWER FOR CIVILIAN USE

• NWS HAVE OBLIGATION TO WORK TOWARDS EVENTUAL ABOLITION OF NW & GENERAL DISARMAMENT BUT NO TIMETABLE GIVEN

• IAEA MONITORS NWS & NNWS FOR COMPLIANCE & CAN RECOMMEND SANCTIONS TO UNSC IF A SIGNATORY IS FOUND IN VIOLATION OF THE NPT

WHATS WRONG WITH THE INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR NON

PROLIFERATION REGIME?

• IMMUTABLE. IT CANNOT BE CHANGED

• DISCRIMINATORY. THERE CAN BE NO NEW MEMBERS

• UNREALISTIC. KEEPS NEW NWS STATES OUT

• PARTIAL. WESTERN NATIONS WOULD LIKE TO BRING INDIA INTO THE NUCLEAR MAIN STREAM BUT NOT PAKISTAN

NON PROLIFERATION DOUBLE STANDARDS

HOW HAS THE WEST REACTED TO PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM?

• DEMANDS TO CONTROL, FREEZE & ROLL BACK• SANCTIONS (SYMINGTON, PRESSLER & GLEN

AMMENDMENTS)• PROPAGANDA REGARDING

– NUCLEAR BLACK MARKET– THE SAFETY & SECURITY OF ITS NUCLEAR– FAST GROWTH OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL

• DOUBLE STANDARDS AS COMPARED TO INDIA• MENU FOR BECOMING A NUCLEAR MAINSTREAM

NATION • ADVICE TO EXERCISE NUCLEAR RESTRAINT

HOW THE WEST VIEWS INDIA’S STATUS AS A NUCLEAR STATE?

• ACCEPTS IT AS A RESPONSIBLE NUCLEAR STATE

• US CONCLUDED CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL WITH INDIA IN 2005

• SPECIAL WAIVER GRANTED BY NSG IN 2008

• CIVIL NUCLEAR DEALS WITH SEVERAL OTHER COUNTRIES

• US SUPPORTIVE OF INDIAN NSG BID

• MADE MEMBER OF MTCR

HOW PAKISTAN HAS BEEN TREATED IN THE NUCLEAR WORLD?

• LEFT OUT IN THE COLD

• NO COUNTRY WILLING TO CONCLUDE A CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL

• NOT MANY SUPPORTERS FOR PAKISTAN’S NSG BID

• PRESSURE IN THE CD WITH REFERENCE TO VETO ON FMCT

• CONSTANT PROPOGANDA AGAINST – NUCLEAR SAFETY & SECURITY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

– RATE OF GROWTH OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL

– TNWs

A Normal

NUCLEAR PAKISTAN by Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon

© Copyright 2015 Stimson Center and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace All rights reserved.

WESTERN PERCEPTIONS OF A NORMAL NUCLEAR PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN SEEKS TO BE VIEWED AS A NORMAL STATE POSSESSING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AS EXEMPLIFIED BY:

• MEMBERSHIP IN THE NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP (NSG)

• A CIVIL-NUCLEAR COOPERATION AGREEMENT SIMILAR TO THE ONE ACCORDED TO INDIA

HOW DOES THE WEST WANT TO MAINSTREAM A NUCLEAR PAKISTAN?• SHIFT DECLARATORY POLICY FROM “FULL SPECTRUM” TO “STRATEGIC

DETERRENCE” (MEANING: GIVE UP THE SHORT RANGE BATTLEFIELD NUCLEAR WEAPONS)

• COMMIT TO A RECESSED DETERRENCE POSTURE AND LIMIT PRODUCTION OF SHORTRANGE DELIVERY VEHICLES AND TNWs (MEANING: DO NOT HAVE A READY ARSENAL. DEMATE ALL NUCLEAR WARHEADS FROM DELIVERY MEANS SUCH AS NUCLEAR CAPABLE MISSILES AND AIRPLANES AT ALL TIMES)

• LIFT VETO ON FISSILE MATERIAL CUTOFF TREATY (FMCT) NEGOTIATIONS AND REDUCE OR STOP FISSILE MATERIAL PRODUCTION (MEANING: SIGN FMCT WITHOUT DEMANDING THAT THE EXISTING FISSILE MATERIAL STOCKS BE ACCOUNTED FOR)

• SEPARATE CIVILIAN AND MILITARY NUCLEAR FACILITIES (MEANING: BRING ALL YOUR NUCLEAR REACTORS UNDER IAEA SAFEGUARDS).

• SIGN THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY (CTBT) WITHOUT WAITING FOR INDIA (MEANING: UNILATERALLY GIVE UP YOUR RIGHT TO TEST NUCLEAR WEAPONS)

WHAT ARE PAKISTAN’S OPTIONS?

• AGREE TO ALL DEMANDS AND BECOME ACCEPTABLE AS A NUCLEAR STATE

• REJECT ALL PRECONDITIONS AND REMAIN A NUCLEAR OUTLIER

• NEGOTIATE ON CERTAIN DEMANDS

• PREPARE A STRONG CASE AND PURSUE IT STEADFASTLY WITH LONG TERM AIMS

WHAT CAN BE NEGOTIATED & WHAT CAN’T BE?

YES MAY BE NOT AT ALL

NATIONAL SAFETY & SECURITY

DETERRENCE CAPABILITY

NUCLEAR POLICY

TNWs

FMCT/FMT

CTBT

SEPARATE CIVIL FROM MILITARY

REACTORS

INDIA’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

• JAWAHARLAL NEHRU (26 JUNE 1946) ANNOUNCED: “AS LONG AS THE WORLD IS CONSTITUTED AS IT IS, EVERY COUNTRY WILL HAVE TO DEVISE AND USE THE LATEST DEVICES FOR ITS PROTECTION. I HAVE NO DOUBT INDIA WILL DEVELOP HER SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES AND I HOPE INDIAN SCIENTISTS WILL USE THE ATOMIC FORCE FOR CONSTRUCTIVE PURPOSES. BUT IF INDIA IS THREATENED, SHE WILL INEVITABLY TRY TO DEFEND HERSELF BY ALL MEANS AT HER DISPOSAL.”

• INDIA'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM STARTED ON MARCH 1944 AND ITS THREE-STAGE EFFORTS IN TECHNOLOGY WERE ESTABLISHED BY DR. HOMI BHABHA WHEN HE FOUNDED THE NUCLEAR RESEARCH CENTER, THE INSTITUTE OF FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH.

• INDIA'S LOSS OF TERRITORY TO CHINA IN A BRIEF HIMALAYAN BORDER WAR IN OCTOBER 1962, PROVIDED THE NEW DELHI GOVERNMENT IMPETUS FOR DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A MEANS OF DETERRING POTENTIAL CHINESE AGGRESSION.

• INDIA FIRST TESTED A NUCLEAR DEVICE IN 1974 (SMILING BUDDHA), WHICH IT CALLED A "PEACEFUL NUCLEAR EXPLOSION." THE TEST USED PLUTONIUM PRODUCED IN THE CANADIAN-SUPPLIED CIRUS REACTOR, AND RAISED CONCERNS THAT NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIED FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES COULD BE DIVERTED TO WEAPONS PURPOSES.

• EXPLODES NUCLEAR DEVICE IN MAY 1998

• CONCLUDES CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL WITH USA IN 2005

• SPECIAL WAIVER GIVEN BY IAEA IN 2008

• MADE A MEMBER OF THE MRCR IN 2016

• MADE AN UNSUCCESSFUL BID FOR ENTRY INTO NSG IN 2016