Nuclear, Asian NuMisclear, Missile sil& Space e Digest€¦1 Nuclear, Asian Nu Mis clear, Missile sil & Space e Digest & Space Digest Volume 4, Number 14 A Fortnightly Newsletter from

Asian Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest1 Nuclear, Missile&

Space DigestVolume 4, Number 14 A Newsletter from the Indian Pugwash Society July 21, 2012Fortnightly

Convenor

&

Editor

Dr Arvind Gupta

Executive Council

Dr Anil Kakodkar

Dr Ashok Parthasarthy

Lt Gen(Retd) Satish NambiarDr R. R. Subramanian

Dr Rajiv Nayan

Dr Manpreet Sethi

Contents

Indian Pugwash Society

No.1, Development Enclave,Rao Tula Ram Marg, Near USI

Delhi-110010 Tel. No (91-11) 2671-7983 Extn 7014 & 7012 Fax No. (91-11) 2615-4192 Email: [email protected]

A. US & EUROPE • Port security: U.S. fails to meet deadline for scanning of

containers Washington Post• U.S. Charges Men in Plot to Violate Iran Embargo New York Times

US Lawmakers Say Iranian Missile Threat Needs Updating

Bloomberg

• Pentagon Finds, Iran's Ballistic Missiles Improving, Bloomberg

Germany's pricey nuclear burial, Climate Spectator• Nuclear waste in France set to double UPI.com• UK delays green power subsidy decision for second time, Reuters

Lithuania to hold referendum on new nuclear plant AFP

B. Iran, Israel & Arab World • Iran Former Minister Seeks Referendum on Nuclear Program -

Bloomberg• Iran Nuclear Talks Are to Continue as Their Tone Heats Up - New

York Times• Netanyahu involved in smuggling nuke triggers: Report - Press

TV • Mahdi Cyberespionage Malware Infects Computers in Iran,

Israel, Other Middle Eastern Countries - IDG-News-Service: Romania-Bureau

• Iran boosts missiles' lethality - Arabnews• Russia Calls on Iran to Pull Missile Deal Claim – Paper - RIA

Novosti • Bushehr Nuclear Plant to Run at Full Capacity in August RIA

Novosti• Saudi Men Charged With Illegal Nuclear Shipments Via China -

Al-monitor• Tehran wants resumption of nuclear negotiations with West, The

Israel Times • U.A.E. Will Start Building Second Nuclear Plant in 2013 Bloomberg

NewsC. Russia & Central Asia

• Initial Russia S-400 Interceptor Launches Scheduled for August, GSN

• Russia, Belarus sign nuclear power deal, UPI.com • Kazakhstan expresses its willingness to host Iranian nuclear talks,

Trends • Russia to help open Kazakh enriched uranium enterprise New

Europe Online

Asian Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest1 Nuclear, Missile&

Space DigestVolume 4, Number 14 A Newsletter from the Indian Pugwash Society July 21, 2012Fortnightly

Indian Pugwash Society

No.1, Development Enclave,Rao Tula Ram Marg, Near USI

Delhi-110010 Tel. No (91-11) 2671-7983 Extn 7014 & 7012 Fax No. (91-11) 2615-4192 Email: [email protected]

D. East & South East Asia• Report Sheds Light on North Korean Nuclear Program The Japan

Times Online, • We need nukes to deter the US, N. Korea tells ASEAN, Xinuha • N. Korea to 'completely review' nuclear issue AFP• Missile shield may spark China nuclear upgrade THE

ASSOCIATED PRESS• NISA warns of active fault beneath Shika nuke plant THE ASAHI

SHIMBUN• New fault-line surveys ordered at 2 nuclear plants, THE ASAHI

SHIMBUN• Diet inquiry: Nuclear crisis man-made Jiji Press • Japan moves a step closer to reform energy industry, Press TV• Japan approves renewable subsidies in shift from nuclear power, Reuters • Japan's largest anti-nuclear rally in Tokyo draws over 170,000 The Japan

Daily Press• Damages rules set for nuclear crisis evacuees Kyodo• KEPCO announces Japan's second reactor to restart on July 18 The Japan

Daily Press• Nuclear detector installed at Belawan Seaport The Jakarta Post

E.India & Pakistan

• Fatehabad nuclear plant to have no adverse effect: Scientist, PTI• Court reassured on storage of spent fuel from reactors, The Hindu• Full text: India, Pakistan joint statement, MEA• Australia working to ensure uranium supply to India, IRNA• Agni-I successfully test fired again PIB

F. Opinion & Analysis

• Nuclear weapons 'can be traded in' UKPA• Pursue the Diplomatic Track on Iran Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control

Association• How US Restraint Can Keep China's Nuclear Arsenal Small Hui Zhang,

Belfer Centre• The Sanctions Aren't Working By Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi &

Muhammad Sahimi, Foreign Policy• The Iran Nuclear Talks Impasse Council for Foreign Relations• Iran and the Bomb: Would a Nuclear Iran Make the Middle East More S e c u r e ?

Foreign Affairs, July 17, 2012• Why Iran Should Get the Bomb: Nuclear Balancing Would Mean

Stability Kenneth N. Waltz, Foreign Affairs• N u c l e a r - A r m e d I r a n W o u l d B r i n g ' S t a b i l i t y ' B u t R i s k s P B S

NEWSHOUR• Iran sanctions halt long-range ballistic-missile development IISS

Strategic Comment

Reports

Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission: The National Diet of Japan http://naiic.go.jp/en/

The United States Plutonium Balance, 1944 -2009

h t t p : / / n n s a . e n e r g y . g o v / s i t e s / d e f a u l t / f i l e s / n n s a / 0 6 - 1 2 -

inlinefiles/PU%20Report%20Revised%2006-26-2012%20%28UNC%29.pdf

All the articles are available from the mentioned sources in original format.

2 Volume 4, Number 14 July 21, 2012

US & EUROPE

Port security: U.S. fails to m e e t d e a d l i n e f o r U.S. Charges Men in Plot s c a n n i n g o f c a r g o to Violate Iran Embargocontainers

nal-security/port-security-us-fails-to-meet-d e a d l i n e - f o r - s c a n n i n g - o f - c a r g o -containers/2012/07/15/gJQAmgW8mW_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines#

Charlie Savage, New York Times, July 13, Douglas Frantz, Washington Post, July 16 2012

The Obama administration has failed to W A S H I N G T O N — T h e J u s t i c e meet a legal deadline for scanning all Department on Friday unsealed the shipping containers for radioactive indictment of two men — one Chinese and material before they reach the United the other Iranian — charged with S ta tes , a requi rement a imed a t conspiring to violate the embargo against strengthening maritime security and Iran by trying to smuggle restricted preventing terrorists from smuggling a equipment and materials suitable for gas nuclear device into any of the nation's 300 centrifuges for enriching uranium into that sea and river ports. country. The items to be smuggled had

been made in the United States.The Department of Homeland Security was given until this month to ensure that The investigation underscored tensions 100 percent of inbound shipping with Iran over its nuclear program while containers are screened at foreign ports. opening a window to a group accused of

being a global smuggling network. The But the department's secretary, Janet network is said to have sought to obtain Napolitano, informed Congress in May sensitive materials from companies in that she was extending a two-year blanket California, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio exemption to foreign ports because the and to conceal that the goods would be screening is proving too costly and shipped on to Iran.cumbersome. She said it would cost $16 billion to implement scanning measures at A 24-page indictment, handed down by a the nearly 700 ports worldwide that ship to grand jury in May and unsealed on Friday, the United States. accuses Parviz Khaki of Iran and

Zongcheng Yi of China of working Instead, the DHS relies on intelligence- together and with others to buy the gathering and analysis to identify “high- materials, including 20 tons of high-risk” containers, which are checked before strength maraging steel, 40 tons of being loaded onto ships. Under this aluminum alloy rods, radioactive system, fewer than half a percent of the materials, mass spectrometers, measuring roughly 10 million containers arriving at instruments and vacuum system U.S. ports last year were scanned before equipment.departure. The DHS says that those checks “Today's indictment sheds light on the turned up narcotics and other contraband reach of Iran's illegal procurement but that there have been no public reports networks and the importance of keeping of smuggled nuclear material. U.S. nuclear-related materials from being

exploited http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/natio

Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest3

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/world/ lawmakers-say.html middleeast/two-men-charged-with-violating-i r a n -embargo.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg, July 11, 2012

Iran's military continues to improve the accuracy and killing power of its long- and

Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg, July 16, 2012 short-range ballistic missiles, including designing a weapon to target vessels,

Two top Republicans on the House Armed according to a Pentagon report to Services Committee are pressing Defense Congress. “Iran has boosted the lethality Secretary Leon Panetta to update the and effectiveness of existing systems by Pentagon 's assessment o f I ran ' s improving accuracy and developing new intercontinental ballistic missile program. submunition payloads” that extend the Committee Chairman Howard McKeon of destructive power over a wider area than a California and Representative Michael solid warhead, according to the June 29 Turner of Ohio, head of the strategic forces report signed by U.S. Defense Secretary subcommittee, asked Panetta in a letter Leon Panetta.today for an unclassified update before the committee completes work on an $8.2 The improvements are in tandem with billion Pentagon request to shift, or regular ballistic- missile training that reprogram, fiscal 2012 funds. “continues throughout the country” and

the addition of “new ships and “We write out of concern with the submarines,” the report found. The report administration's plans for missile defense, obtained by Bloomberg News was specifically, the continued sharp decline in provided to the four congressional defense the attention and resources invested in committees last week to comply with a U.S. national missile defenses,” the fiscal 2010 directive to provide an annual lawmakers said. Pentagon spokesman classified and unclassified assessment of Carl Woog said in an e-mailed statement Iran's military power. The unclassified that “the department will review the letter version provides the latest snapshot of and reply to Chairman McKeon and Iran's so- called asymmetric capabilities Congressman Turner.” designed to counter the strengths of

western militaries.Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Panetta's predecessor, said in September The report summarizes what's been said 2009 that the intelligence community publicly about the status of Iran's nuclear “now assesses the threat of potential program and its aid to Syria, Lebanese Iranian ICBM capabilities has been slower Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite to develop than was estimated in 2006.” groups. It repeats the longstanding U.S. McKeon and Turner referred, as evidence assessment that Iran with “sufficient of a potential shift in that assessment, to foreign assistance may be technically statements in the Pentagon's latest c a p a b l e o f f l i g h t - t e s t i n g ” a n unclassified report on Iranian military intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015.power sent to Capitol Hill this month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07- 10/iran-improves-ballistics-missiles-to-target-16/iranian-missile-threat-needs-updating- ships.html

Iran's Ballistic Missiles Improving, Pentagon Finds

U S L a w m a k e r s S a y Iranian Missile Threat Needs Updating


Germany's pricey nuclear burial

UK delays green power subsidy decision for second time

Nuclear waste in France set to double

waste agency says the amount of such waste in the country will double by 2030, and some of it will remain radioactive for 2 million years.Christoph Steitz and Tom Käckenhoff,

Climate Spectator, July 18, 2012The current 45 million cubic feet of nuclear waste in France is likely to reach 95 million Peter Klimmek has spent his entire career cubic feet in the next 18 years, a report by at a nuclear plant in Germany. Next year, Andra, the agency charged with stocking he will retire – just months before his and disposing of nuclear waste, said. The workplace does. The nuclear plant in the current amount of waste represents 4 small and remote village of Wuergassen, pounds for every person in the country.halfway between Frankfurt and Hamburg,

has been Klimmek's passion for the past 37 With nuclear power the principle source of years.electricity in France, the Andra report warns of major problems stockpiling But by 2014, almost nothing will be left of waste, Radio France Internationale what once was Germany 's f i r s t reported.commercial boiling water reactor.

Germany's decision to shut down all http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/07/nuclear plants by 2022, sparked by last 1 3 / N u c l e a r - w a s t e - i n - F r a n c e - s e t - t o -year's Fukushima nuclear disaster in d o u b l e / U P I -Japan, is a done deal. "It gets under your 21671342208921/#ixzz21ASUEypC skin to see how this plant is being

dismantled," 63-year old Klimmek says, just steps away from a giant hole in the ground where the reactor vessel used to be.

Work to decommission plants mainly Karolin Schaps, Reuters, July 17, 2012includes removing and disposing of contaminated material as well as

(Reuters) - The British government on decommissioning the plants themselves

Tuesday put off for a second time a crucial while making sure that no radiation

announcement on subsidy levels for spreads. Spent fuel from reactors needs to

renewable energy, risking further delays be encased and then transported to safe

in projects that will help Britain meet its fuel dumps while cooling towers, often

legally binding climate change targets.regarded a blight on landscapes, then need demolishing. "All that will be left are

The government was due to announce by photos, footage but otherwise just empty

Tuesday new state support levels for hands," he adds, surrounded by workers

renewable energy projects from April in orange suits that are busy removing

2013, before Parliament breaks for summer parts of the plant.

recess.

http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commen"We will not be making an announcement

tary/germanys-pricey-nuclear-burialtoday. We will bring forward the proposals in due course as we are discussing and finalizing the details," a spokesman for the Department of Energy and Climate Change said.

UPI.com, July 13, 2012

Proposed new subsidy levels were first PARIS, July 13 (UPI) -- France's nuclear


announced in October and were due to be

finalized in the spring, but a first delay

moved the deadline to before the summer

recess.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/17/us - b r i t a i n - r e n e w a b l e s - s u b s i d i e s -idUSBRE86G0MT20120717

Global Security Newswire, NTI, July 17, 2012

Initial live-fire trials of Russia's S-400 antimissile unit are set to be carried out by the country's aerospace defense forces over a one-week period starting on Aug. AFP, July 15, 201210, RIA Novosti reported on Saturday (see GSN, June 29).

VILNIUS — Lithuania's parliament on

Monday called a referendum on plans for "The first tactical exercises will take place

an atomic power plant to replace a Soviet- at the Ashuluk range from Aug. 10-16 era facility closed under the terms of involving the force's S-400 systems and Lithuania's entry into the European Union. also the gun-missile Pantsir-C system in Sixty-two lawmakers voted in favour of live firing," Defense Ministry spokesman the opposition proposal to hold the Lt. Col. Dmitry Zenin stated.referendum, which will not be binding, in

tandem with the Baltic state's general The trial site in Russia's Astrakhan region election on October 14, while 39 were would host a pair of S-400 batteries from against and 18 abstained. the Dmitrov district near the Russian

capital, Zenin added.

"Visaginas nuclear power plant will be A high-level air force officer this week said built on Lithuanian land, with increased four aerospace forces battalions had danger, therefore we must ask the opinion received the S-400 system and another of the Lithuanian people," said opposition would obtain the equipment before Soc ia l Democrat B i rute Vesa i te . January. The S-400 is intended to take Lithuania's governing Conservatives down medium-range ballistic missiles, opposed the referendum plan, accusing cruise missiles and other airborne threats, the opposition of simply seeking pre-according to the report (RIA Novosti, July

election political gains.14).

"For some, getting into parliament for four Meanwhile, Russian ground forces head

years is more important than ensuring Col. Gen. Vladimir Chirkin on Monday

Lithuanian energy independence, and said his country would begin to use tires in economic and political independence for place of continuous tracks on certain half a century," Foreign Minister mobile antimissile units and other Audronius Azubalis said during the movable gear, ITAR-Tass reported.debate.

http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/russia-http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/articl conduct-initial-s-400-interceptor-launches/ e / A L e q M 5 h y y 8 c I 9 a D R f V x - l 7 X a u -fOI9zxXQ?docId=CNG.b875bca87dc5066fb2c7b7510ef57454.6d1

Russia/Central Asia

Ini t ia l Russ ia S -400 Interceptor Launches Scheduled for August

L i t h u a n i a t o h o l d r e f e r e n d u m o n n e w nuclear plant

Russia, Belarus sign


nuclear power deal

Russia to help open Kazakh enriched uranium enterprise

Kazakhstan expresses its w i l l i n g n e s s t o h o s t Iranian nuclear talks

the Kazakh president.

UPI.com, July 19, 2012Iran and 5+1 group (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States plus

MOSCOW, July 19 (UPI) -- Russia said it Germany) held three sessions of talks in signed a multibillion-dollar contract with Baghdad on May 23 and 24 after an earlier Belarus to help build the first nuclear round of negotiations in the Turkish city of power plant in the former Soviet republic. Istanbul in mid-April.Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a contract with his Belarusian Another round of nuclear talks was held in Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich Moscow on June 18-19. The Iranian outlining plans for a $10 billion nuclear negotiating delegation in the Moscow power plant, Russia's state-run news talks was led by Secretary of the Supreme agency RIA Novosti reports. National Security Council (SNSC) Saeed

Jalili, and the P5+1 group of countries was The plant, to be built by Russia's headed by Catherine Ashton.Atomstroyexport Company, will consist of two 1,200-megawatt reactors. One unit is http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2040978.htmlto be completed by 2018 and the second in #popupInfo 2020. Minsk had embraced nuclear power in the 1980s but its ambitions were thwarted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine. Nuclear power has also come under scrutiny in the wake of the March 2011 meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan. Russia said it would help KULPASH KONYROVA, New Europe f inance the Be larus ian pro jec t ' s Online, June 26, 2012, construction.

Earlier, Russia and Kazakhstan signed a http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy- comprehensive programme for co-Resources/2012/07/19/Russia-Belarus-sign- operation in the nuclear industry, which is n u c l e a r - p o w e r - d e a l / U P I - now being successfully realised. Uranium 81291342698194/#ixzz219WCW4Kr minefields have already been created in

Kazakhstan and they are operating based on modern technologies.

"Now we have reached production volume of 4,000 tonnes of uranium per year. And soon, the level of production

June 27, 2012, Trends will reach 6,000 tonnes of uranium per year. In other words, we and our Kazakh

Iran's Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Salehi partners are ahead of the implementation

told reporters that Kazakh President schedule of our joint programme," the

Nursultan Nazarbayev is ready to host head of Posatom, Segey Kiriyenko, told

future nuclear talks between Iran and the Kazakh and Russian journalists.

5+1 group (the permanent members of the UN Security Council-the U.S., Britain,

According to him as a part of the France, Russia and China) plus Germany.

programme Kazakh-Russian joint ventures have been created and are

Fars news agency reports Iran's nuclear already operating in Kazakhstan, citing

negotiations and the unrest in Syria were Yuronionvam, majority share of which is

among the issues discussed by Salehi and owned by Rosatom, as an example.


"I appreciate the leadership of Kazakhstan on-nuclear-programfor the timely accepted decisions on the establishment of this enterprise. Thus, they supported the process of integration between our countries," Kiriyenko said.

http://www.neurope.eu/article/russia-help-By Rick Gladstone & Thomas Eredbrink, open-kazakh-enriched-uranium-enterprise New York Times, July 4, 2012 Low-level talks between Iran and the group of big powers over the disputed Iranian nuclear program ended early Wednesday with both sides saying the deputies of their top negotiators would meet at a later date. Their announcement gave no hint of progress but nonetheless suggested that neither side was ready to declare the effort a failure.

Andrew J. Barden, Bloomberg, July 12, The talks, in Istanbul, were held against a 2012 backdrop of increasingly bellicose oratory by Iran and the United States because of A former Iranian interior minister and the nuclear impasse, which after a lull of opposition figure is calling for a national more than three months has started to raise referendum on Iran's atomic work, saying tensions again in the Middle East.the government must act wisely to exit a

“dead end,” Jaras reported. “The ill effects Iran has renewed a threat to close the Strait and pressure that Iran is bearing has of Hormuz, a vital Persian Gulf oil conduit, passed the limits,” Abdollah Nouri was in response to the recently intensified quoted as saying in a report published on American and European sanctions meant the opposition website yesterday. “To exit to paralyze the Iranian oil industry as a this dead end, the regime must make a pressure tactic in the nuclear talks. Iran has rational decision that preserves national also said the new sanctions will have no interests.”effect on its resolve to prevail in the nuclear dispute.Nouri's remarks follow the July 1 start of a

European Union ban on oil from Iran, the On Monday, Obama administration Organization of Petroleum Exporting officials disclosed the reinforcement of Countries' second-largest producer after American military strength in bases near Saudi Arabia. The measures build on the Strait of Hormuz as a signal to Iran not existing U.S.-led sanctions on trade and to try to disrupt oil-tanker traffic. At the banking designed to force Iran to curb its same time, Iran began a three-day military nuclear work, which the U.S and the EU exercise, test-firing missiles it said were say has military aims.capable of hitting American bases and targets in Israel.Iran says its program is civilian and

maintains that as a signatory to the nuclear http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/world/Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is entitled to middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks-to-continue-as-carry out atomic work on its territory. tone-heats-up.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-12/iran-former-minister-seeks-referendum-

Iran Nuclear Talks Are to Continue as Their Tone Heats Up

Iran/Israerl & Arab World

Iran Former Minister Seeks Referendum on Nuclear Program

Netanyahu involved in


smuggling nuke triggers: Report

Iran boosts missiles' lethality

Mahdi Cyberespionage M a l w a r e I n f e c t s Computers in Iran, Israel, Other Middle Eastern Countries

Mahdi is capable of logging keystrokes, taking screenshots at specified intervals, recording audio and stealing a variety of documents, images, archives and other Press TV, July 7, 2012 files, Kaspersky Lab researchers said in a blog post on Tuesday.According to a Wednesday article posted

on antiwar.com, the FBI partially Its name comes from a file called mahdi.txt declassified and released additional pages that gets dropped on infected computers. from a 1985-2002 investigation into how a According to Islamic beliefs, Mahdi is a network of front companies connected to Messianic figure who will rule the world the Israeli Ministry for Military Affairs before Judgment Day and will cleanse it of illegally smuggled triggers used for injustice and wrongdoing.nuclear weapons (krytrons) out of the

United States. Seculert discovered the Mahdi malware several months ago while investigating a The FBI investigation reveals that suspicious email message with a fake Netanyahu worked at Heli Trading document attached, the company's Company, the Israeli node of the network researchers said Tuesday in a blog post.during the smuggling operations. The

Israeli premier was in contact with Richard http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/articKelly Smyth, who at the time was le/259398/mahdi_cyberespionage_malware_ipresident of the MILCO International Inc., nfects_computers_in_iran_israel_other_midda front company for the Israel-based Heli le_eastern_countries.html Trading Company, then owned by

Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan.

In April 2002, Smyth was sentenced to 40 Arabnews, July 11, 2012months in prison and fined 20,000 dollars

for trafficking krytrons, tiny electronic The Iranian military has “boosted the devices that are used in high-speed lethality and effectiveness of existing” photography, strobe lighting and ballistic missile systems with “accuracy photocopying machines, but can also be improvements and new sub-munition used in nuclear triggers.payloads,” according to a Pentagon report. Por t ions o f the document were declassified on Wednesday after having been presented to Congress last week.

The report, dated June 29, 2012, is signed by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and says new Iranian abilities “extend the destructive power over a wider area than a

By Lucian Constantin, IDG-News- solid warhead,” according to Bloomberg. Service: Romania-Bureau, July 18, 2012 Iran's military improvements are

occurring in parallel with regular ballistic-A piece of malware called Mahdi or Madi miss i le t ra ining that “cont inues has been used to spy on hundreds of throughout the country” and the addition targets from Iran, Israel and a few other of “new ships and submarines,” the report Middle Eastern countries during the past concluded.eight months, according to researchers from security vendors Seculert and The report repeats the longstanding US Kaspersky Lab. assessment that Iran with “sufficient

9 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

foreign assistance may be technically c a p a b l e o f f l i g h t - t e s t i n g ” a n intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015. In February 2012, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said in a CNBC television

Emily Grannis, Bloomberg, July 14, 2012interview that Israel estimates Iranian missiles will soon be capable of reaching

An Iranian and a Chinese resident were the United States.charged with conspiring to sell uranium and cobalt to Iran, and successfully Iran is investing billions of dollars, Steinitz shipping lathes and alloy wire, using a said, to develop inter-continental ballistic Chinese company to evade U.S. export missiles. “We estimate that in two to three controls.years they will have the first inter-

continental ballistic missiles that can reach Parviz Khaki, 43, an Iranian citizen the east coast of America,” he said at the arrested in the Philippines in May, and time.Zongcheng Yi, who prosecutors called a “purported” managing director of http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/AMonalila Co. in Guangzhou City, China, rticle.aspx?id=277056 allegedly tried to ship a specialty steel, aluminum alloy rods, mass spectrometers, radioactive chemicals and other products from the U.S. to Iran in violation of a U.S. embargo.

RIA Novosti, July 19 The men were accused today in a federal indictment in Washington of using Yi's company as an intermediary for the MOSCOW - The Bushehr Nuclear Power

products between October 2008 and Plant, Iran's first, is scheduled to run at full

January 2011. Khaki and Yi were charged capacity in August, the chief of the main

with conspiring to violate the International contractor said on Thursday.

Emergency Economic Powers Act, conspiracy to defraud the U.S., two counts “Bushehr is planned to reach 100 percent

of smuggling, two counts of illegally capacity this August,” said Valery

exporting U.S. goods to Iran, and Limarenko, director of NIAEP, the

conspiracy to commit money laundering. m a n a g e m e n t c o m p a n y o f

Each faces a maximum of 105 years in Atomstroyexport.

prison if convicted on all counts.The construction of Bushehr has taken

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-more than three decades and has been dogged by delays. Russia signed a contract 13/iranian-charged-with-illegal-nuclear-

with Iran in February 1998 to complete the shipments-via-china.html

plant, which German companies first began back in 1975.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20120719/174683900.html?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Daily+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=6

RIA Novosti, July 18 7 f b a 7 f 5 8 f -RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=

Russia is trying to convince Iran to email

Saudi Men Charged With Illegal Nuclear Shipments Via China

Bushehr Nuclear Plant to Run at Full Capacity in August

Russia Calls on Iran to Pull Missile Deal Claim - Paper


withdraw its Geneva Arbitration Court bridge differences between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN claim over the scrapping of a 2007 contract Security Council and Germany but the for five S-300 surface-to-air missile sides agreed to continue lower-level systems, Russian business dai ly technical talks to see if there was a way to Kommersant reported on Wednesday.break the deadlock.“Iran's complaint is an irritating issue in

our cooperation which we hope to get rid The US and its allies accuse Iran of seeking of,” the Kommersant daily quoted a source nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran denies.in the Federal Service for Military and

Technical Cooperation as saying. http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-wants-According to Kommersant, the issue was resumption-of-nuclear-negotiations-with-discussed during Russian Foreign west/Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Iran in

mid-June. Tehran however refused to withdraw the suit.

Iran's Defense Ministry and The Aerospace Industries Organization, an Iranian state company, launched the $4-

Ayesha Daya, Bloomberg News July 19, billion lawsuit against Russia's state arms

2012corporation Rosoboronexport in the international arbitration court in Geneva

Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp., the state on April 13, 2011, seven months after then-

company developing nuclear power president Dmitry Medvedev signed a

plants in the United Arab Emirates, has decree terminating the contract, in line

begun construction of the first facility and with UN Security Council

will start the second in 2013.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120718/174661201.Safety concrete for the first unit was

html poured yesterday at the site in Barakah in Abu Dhabi's Western Region, Emirates Nuclear said today in a statement. Emirates Nuclear will apply for an operating license for the first unit in 2015 and will pour concrete for the second unit in 2013, it said.The Israel Times, July 17, 2012

The first of the four 1,400 megawatt plants TEHRAN — Iran says it hopes upcoming will be ready in 2017, with each additional talks with an EU official could pave the unit becoming operational every year way for the resumption of high-level through 2020, according to the statement.negotiations with world powers over

Tehran's controversial nuclear program.The U.A.E. is aiming to be the first Gulf Arab nation to develop nuclear power. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEP) (KEP) Mehmanparast says the July 24 meeting was awarded the contract to build the between Iran's No. 2 negotiator Ali plants in 2009.Bagheri and Helga Schmid, deputy of the

EU foreign policy chief, will be key to a http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-possible resumption of the stalled 19/u-dot-a-dot-e-dot-will-start-building-negotiations.s e c o n d - n u c l e a r - p l a n t - i n -2013?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+DailTalks last month in Moscow failed to

U.A.E. Will Start Building Second Nuclear Plant in 2013

Tehran wants resumption of nuclear negotiations with West


report-sheds-light-on-north-korean-nuclear-y+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=6program.html7 f b a 7 f 5 8 f -

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Korea Times, July 12, 2012

PHNOM PENH (Yonhap News) -- South Korea, the United States and Japan announced Thursday the establishment of a three-way security consultative body, laying the groundwork to build a trilateral

The Journal of Turkish Weekly, July 08, 2012 alliance in the face of North Korean aggression.

SEOUL — Japanese newspapers are The announcement was made after South reporting North Korea's late leader gave Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan, explicit instructions to mass produce U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and uranium-based weapons. The country Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro contends it is enriching uranium solely for Gemba held a trilateral meeting earlier in power generation. the day on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum.The Mainichi Shimbun and Tokyo

Shimbun published excerpts from Clinton hailed the new organization, writings purported to expose the North named the Steering Group and to be based Korean leader's order to mass produce in Washington, as an initiative to "build nuclear weapons fueled with highly-even deeper connection" among the three enriched uranium.nations and across the Asia-Pacific region to "bring even greater order and structure The Japanese newspapers say the to our three-way partnership."instruction was revealed in a 19-page

internal document likely compiled in "We all have a deep stake in greater February of this year for senior officials of responsibility to work together to North Korea's only political party. Kim strengthen and update a rules-based order Jong-il died in December of last year and for the Asia-Pacific," Clinton told his third son, Kim Jong-un, now runs the reporters. "So we welcome the newly-reclusive and impoverished country.framed Steering Group. And I look forward to our consultation today and to In Seoul, Unification Ministry spokesman our continued efforts to build even deeper Kim Hyung-suk was asked by reporters connections among our three countries," for the South Korean government's Clinton said. The death of North Korea's reaction to the published reports. Kim says long-time ruler, Kim Jong-il, and the it is not appropriate for the South Korean North's botched rocket launch in April government to discuss it as it has no way

to immediately confirm the authenticity. http://view.koreaherald.com/kh/view.php?ud=He says it is essentially the North Korean 20120712001425&cpv=0 government's responsibility to verify the

report or say the document is not real.

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/137807/

S. Korea, U.S., Japan move c l o s e r t o b u i l d i n g China & South East trilateral alliance

Asia

Report Sheds Light on North Korean Nuclear Program

Missile shield may spark


China nuclear upgrade

New fault-line surveys ordered at 2 nuclear plants

NISA warns of active fault beneath Shika nuke plant

not be built directly over an active fault. If the fault is identified as active, that could

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, July 19, 2012force the site to be declared inoperable and the Shika nuclear plant, which is currently

China may need to modernize its nuclear offline, to be decommissioned.arsenal to respond to the destabilizing effect of a planned U.S.-backed missile "I will make a decision after hearing the defense system, a senior Chinese military expert opinions," industry minister Yukio officer said on July 18. "It undermines the Edano told a news conference on July 17. "I strategic stability," said Major General Zhu will react promptly if it is learned anew that Chenghu of China's National Defense (the fault in question) is an active fault."University about the U.S.-led development of a missile shield, which has also alarmed This is the second time the Nuclear and Russia. Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) has

pointed out that an active fault may lie "We have to maintain the credibility of directly beneath a nuclear reactor building, deterrence," he told Reuters on the sidelines following a similar warning in April of a panel discussion on nuclear concerning Japan Atomic Power Co.'s disarmament, referring to the military Tsuruga nuclear plant in Fukui Prefecture. doctrine that an enemy will be deterred from using atomic arms as long as he can be NISA was expected to hear expert opinions destroyed as a consequence. during a hearing on the afternoon of July 17

and order Hokuriku Electric Power Co., the The United States is spending about $10 Shika plant operator, to conduct drilling billion a year to develop, test and deploy surveys if the need arises.missile defenses, which would include a European shield as part of a layered system. http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukus

hima/AJ201207170077 The defenses would also include ship-based interceptors that could be deployed in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific - for instance as a hedge against North Korea - plus ground-based missile interceptors in silos in Alaska and California. RYUTA KOIKE, ASAHI SIMBUN, July 19,

2012http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201207190026 The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency

(NISA) has ordered two power companies to conduct a fresh survey at two nuclear plants to determine if fractures running under the plants' grounds are active faults. The agency issued the order on July 18 to THE ASAHI SHIMBUN, July 17, 2012Kansai Electric Power Co., which operates the Oi plant in Fukui Prefecture, and A geological fault line that runs directly Hokuriku Electric Power Co., which runs beneath a reactor building at the Shika the Shika plant in Ishikawa Prefecture.nuclear plant in Ishikawa Prefecture is

likely an active one, a government agency NISA instructed the two utilities to submit has warned, despite the plant operator's survey plans, which are to include locations repeated assertion over 25 years that it is to directly assess the possible active faults, inactive.by July 25 for the Shika plant and within July for the Oi plant. NISA will examine the The government's safety standards adequacy of those plans at an expert mandate that key nuclear power facilities


meeting at the end of the month, and Kurokawa also said. "There were many conduct on-site surveys with the help of opportunities" for the regulators--the experts. Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency and

the Nuclear Safety Commission--and During the survey, NISA will not order TEPCO "to take measures that would have Kansai Electric to halt operations of the Oi prevented the crisis," the report said. "But No. 3 and No. 4 reactors, which were they did not do so."recently restarted. However, it will not allow the reactivation of the idled Shika No. http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T12070

5004390.htm 1 and No. 2 reactors until the end of the survey.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201207190042

AFP, July 12, 2012

North Korea insisted Thursday it needs atomic weaponry to deter a US nuclear

Jiji Press, July 07, 2-12 threat, and vowed never to give up its right to launch rockets as part of what it called a

An independent panel of the Diet peaceful space programme. Washington's concluded Thursday that the crisis at the aim is to "eliminate the political ideology Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in and system our people have opted for", March 2011 was a "man-made" disaster Foreign Minister Pak Ui-Chun told a rather than a natural one. Chaired by regional Asian gathering in Cambodia, Kiyoshi Kurokawa, a former president of according to a summary given to reporters the Science Council of Japan, the inquiry by his delegation.panel included the judgment in a 640-page report it released the same day on the North Korea's launch of a long-range rocket worst-ever nuclear crisis in the nation. on April 13 heightened regional tensions

and sank a deal with the United States "The direct causes of the crisis were all reached on February 29. Under that foreseeable prior to March 11, 2011," when a agreement, the North had agreed to freeze magnitude-9 earthquake and tsunami hit its uranium enrichment plant and suspend the Tohoku region, the report said. The nuclear and missile tests, while the US Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, promised 240,000 tonnes of food aid. however, was "incapable of withstanding" the huge disaster, it said. The US and its allies described the rocket

launch as a disguised missile test, while the Plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co., North said its aim was only to put a satellite the country's two nuclear regulatory bodies into orbit. The rocket failed soon after and the industry ministry "all failed to takeoff.correctly develop the most basic safety requirements," the report said. The http://news.yahoo.com/nukes-deter-us-n-

korea-tells-asean-130645847.html?_esi=1Fukushima crisis "cannot be regarded as a natural disaster," Kurokawa said in the report's preface. "It was a profoundly man-made disaster."

The government, the regulators and AFP, July 19, 2011 TEPCO lacked a sense of responsibility for protecting people's lives and society, SEOUL — North Korea said Friday it had

We need nukes to deter the US, N. Korea tells ASEAN

Diet inquiry: Nuclear crisis man-made

N. Korea to 'completely review' nuclear issue


no choice but to "completely review" the generation and transmission of electric nuclear issue after accusing the United power as well as deregulating the retail of States and South Korea over a plot to blow power. During the summer, METI is going up a statue of its founding leader. The to draw the Basic Energy Plan, which foreign ministry did not elaborate on what hopefully is going to reflect the proposal was meant by a review, but it will add to and its direction.concerns Pyongyang may be planning to conduct a third nuclear test following its If actualized, it will bring the significant failed rocket launch in April. reform in the oft-blamed energy industry in

Japan. The current system has created the Last month the North said it had no plans competition-free environment for the ten "at present" to conduct such a test. The major energy companies including Tokyo threat of a nuclear review came after the Electric Company (Tepco) and Kansai North arrested a man who was allegedly Electric Company (Kepco). trying to blow up a monument to Kim Il-Sung, an act which the foreign ministry The energy companies have argued that the described as a "war action as serious as the bundling of generation and transmission of armed invasion". power is necessary for the stable supply of

energy to all customers. However, a Pyongyang claimed South Korean numerous incidents, especially since the intelligence authorities had hired him to Tohoku Earthquake, have revealed the carry out the plot and that Washington was nature of the Japanese energy companies actively involved. "The consistent hostile that is self-serving and often disregarding policy towards the DPRK (North Korea) of consumers.pursued by the US is giving rise to the evil cycle of confrontation and tensions on the http://japandailypress.com/japan-moves-a-

step-closer-to-reform-energy-industry-146608 Korean Peninsula, making the prospect of denuclearising the peninsula all the more gloomy," the foreign ministry said in a statement released by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/articleYuko Inoue and Leonora Walet, Reuters, /ALeqM5jkYXGdG9a6NcFEfSocJhbbTUkrMJuly 18, 2012 w?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Daily+

Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=67fb(Reuters) - Japan approved on Monday a 7 f 5 8 f -incentives for renewable energy that could RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=eunleash billions of dollars in clean-energy mail investment and help the world's third-biggest economy shift away from a reliance on nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster.

Masao Hasegawa, Press TV, July 14, 2012 Industry Minister Yukio Edano approved the introduction of feed-in tariffs (FIT), Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and which means higher rates will be paid for Industry (METI) held an experts' renewable energy. The move could expand committee meeting on July 13 and revenue from renewable generation and proposed the general direction for the related equipment to more than $30 billion reform of electric energy industry. The by 2016, brokerage CLSA estimates.proposal envisions to free the energy

companies' monopolies by unbundling

Japan approves renewable subsidies in shift from nuclear power

Japan moves a step closer to reform energy industry


The subsidies from July 1 are one of the few http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120720x1.html#.UAlRTmEe7uO certainties in Japan's energy landscape,

where the government has gone back to the drawing board to write a power policy after the Fukushima radiation crisis, the world's worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986. The push for renewables is aimed at cutting reliance on not only nuclear, but

Adam Westlake, The Japan Daily Press, July pricey oil and liquefied natural gas for

12, 2012energy needs.

Kansai Electric Power Co. (KEPCO), the http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/18/usutility company responsible for managing - e n e r g y - r e n e w a b l e s - j a p a n -the nuclear power plant in Oi, Fukui idUSBRE85H00Z20120618 Prefecture, has stated that it will be restarting its second reactor since the Fukushima disaster on July 18th. The first was activated at the beginning of this month, after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Kyodo, July 20, 2012Noda gave his approval in mid-June. All 50 of Japan's nuclear reactors went into

The government Friday unvei led suspension as a result of the nuclear crisis

guidelines on compensation for real estate last march, with the last one going offline on

in evacuation zones near the Fukushima May 5th of this year.

No. 1 nuclear plant, calling for full payment of damages to people who won't be able to

Amid heavy public protest, Japan's central return home more than six years since the

government has pushed ahead with its crisis started. These evacuees are from the

decision to return the country to the use of areas with the worst levels of radiation

nuclear power. The power plant in Japan's among the three types of evacuation zones

western Fukui Prefecture was chosen the government reclassified in April.

because it supplies the heavily populated Kansai region, which includes Osaka, the

The guidelines propose paying at least 50 country's second largest city. It was

percent of the pre-disaster value of real believed that without the use of nuclear

estate to people whose assets are in the power, the region would suffer from

second category, where limited access is electricity shortages as high as 15% over the

allowed. In areas where the evacuation demanding summer months.

order is ready to be lifted, residents can receive at least 33 percent of the pre-disaster

http://japandailypress.com/kepco-announces-value under the guidelines. To determine

japans-second-reactor-to-restart-on-july-18-the pre-disaster value, houses will be

126488?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Daaccessed in three different ways, and the

ily+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=owners will be allowed to pick the highest

d 4 c 5 2 b 2 b 7 2 -price.

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The guidelines set the amount of damages for household goods, including furniture and electric appliances, at about ¥6.75 million for a family of two adults and two children in the worst areas, and about ¥5.05 million in the other two evacuation zone types. Adam Westlake, The Japan Daily Press, July

KEPCO announces Japan's second reactor to restart on July 18

Damages rules set for nuclear crisis evacuees

Japan's largest anti-nuclear rally in Tokyo draws over 170,000


possible entry of nuclear materials and 16, 2012, radioactive substances into Indonesia.

Despite the scorching heat on Monday, July Bapeten head Asnatio Lasman said the 16th, more than 170,000 protesters marched detector was donated by the International through Tokyo's Yoyogi Park to demand Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and was the the government bring an end to Japan's use first given to Indonesia. The agency will of nuclear power. As anti-nuclear protests later install the same device in Makassar, have been occurring nearly every week South Sulawesi; Manado, North Sulawesi since the end of March, this easily marks the and Semarang, Central Java.largest in the series, as well as one of the

largest demonstrations in Japan's history. “This device was especially given to Recalling the Fukushima nuclear crisis Indonesia as part of the IAEA's program, from March 2011, demonstrators shouted which is sponsored by the European Union, in chorus to stop the return to nuclear to strengthen global nuclear safety,” he said power, and for Prime Minister Yoshihiko on the sidelines of the launching ceremony Noda to quit his position.on Wednesday.

Leading participants at the rally included http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/07/Kenzaburo Oe, a winner of the Nobel Prize 19/nuclear-detector-installed-belawan-in literature, and Ryuichi Sakamoto, a seaport.html renowned Japanese musician and

composer. One 71 year old evacuee from Fukushima stated his anger at the lack of progress in compensating the victims who have had to abandon their homes, as well as little being done in the decontamination efforts. He added that the people of Japan will not accept a return to nuclear power until the Fukushima case has been completely resolved. PTI, July 15,2012

http://japandailypress.com/japans-largest- Chandigarh, Jul 15 (PTI) The proposed anti-nuclear-rally-in-tokyo-draws-over- nuclear power plant at Gorakhpur in 1 7 0 0 0 0 - Fatehabad district of Haryana would have 166711?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Da no adverse effect on the lives of the people ily+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign= living around it but would instead open d 4 c 5 2 b 2 b 7 2 - new opportunities for development of the RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=e area. This was stated by P K Bansal, a mail renowned scientist who came from

Mumbai and was interacting with villagers at Kumhariya to clear their misconceptions about the Nuclear Power Plant, an official statement said here today. He said there

Apriadi Gunawan, The Jakarta Post, July 19 were 20 nuclear power plants operating 2012 across the country and none of them had

reported any accident as per the The Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency international norms. (Bapeten) o f f i c ia l ly launched on Wednesday the operation of a radiation Bansal, therefore, urged the people not to portal monitor (RPM) at Belawan Seaport in oppose the setting up of the n-power plant Medan, North Sumatra, to detect the in Haryana as it would cause no harm but

India & Pakistan

Fatehabad nuclear plant to have no adverse effect: Scientist

Nuclear detector installed at Belawan Seaport


ensure its benefit to all sections of society. On the apprehensions about radiation, As practised in the other nuclear power Bansal said, "it is all around including in plants, after eight years of storage, the spent sunlight, air, soil and even in eatable items fuel would be stored in 'Away From and also in homes. It was known as natural Reactor' (AFR) facility. This may be background radiation". He clarified that the constructed either at the KKNPP or at some radiation emanating from the nuclear other sites which would be decided at the power plant was less than the natural appropriate time.background radiation with no adverse impact. Stating radiation helped in the http://www.thehindu.com/news/states/tamil-

nadu/article3658880.ece treatment of fatal diseases like cancer and it also made significant contribution to the promotion of new industry and agriculture, Bansal described radiation as a boon and not a curse.

IANS, July 05, 2012 http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/fatehabad-nuclear-plant-to-have-no-adverse- New Delhi: The Indo-Pak Foreign Secretary effect-scientist/1022880.html level talks ended on Thursday morning

wi th Pakis tan propos ing a jo int investigation into the 26/11 Mumbai carnage and categorically stating that Pakistan has not been involved in any terror

The Hindu, July 19, 2012 act in India.

Adequate technology and experience are Addressing a press conference after the available with the Department of Atomic talks, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Jalil Energy (DAE) and the Nuclear Power Abbas Jilani said, "I bring a message of Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) for goodwill, peace from the government and transporting spent fuel from one location to people of Pakistan. We talked over another by rail and road in a safe manner Confidence Building Measures (CBMs), without any public hazard. Jammu and Kashmir and promotion of

friendly exchanges. We discussed these This was stated in a note when a batch of issues in a cordial atmosphere, reviewed petitions relating to the Kudankulam progress on peace and security."Nuclear Power Project (KKNPP) came up before a Division Bench of Justices P. Below is the full text of the joint statement Jyothimani and M. Duraisamy for further issued after the two-day talks between hearing on Thursday. Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai

and his Pakistani counterpart. During the The note, filed through NPCIL counsel second-round of the resumed dialogue Krishna Srinivasan, stated that at process, the Foreign Secretaries of India and Kudankulam, spent fuel from the reactors Pakistan met in New Delhi on July 4-5, 2012 would be stored in the spent fuel pool for bilateral talks on Peace and Security designed for the storage of spent fuel including CBMs, Jammu & Kashmir and assembly. Promotion of Friendly Exchanges.

The pool capacity had been designed for http://ibnlive.in.com/news/full-text-india-storing spent fuel assemblies for eight years pakistan-joint-statement/269526-3.html and unloading of the total reactor core at any moment of the nuclear power plant operation.

Full text: India, Pakistan joint statement

Court reassured on storage of spent fuel from reactors

Australia working to


ensure uranium supply to India

Opinion & Analysis

Why Iran Should Get the Bomb: Nuclear Balancing Would Mean Stability

AGNI I Ballistic Missile Successfully Launched

reached the target point in the Bay of Bengal following the prescribed trajectory.

The missile was launched from Road IRNA, July 12, 2012 Mobile Launcher System and was tracked by Radar and Telemetry stations located New Delhi, -- Australia on Wednesday said along the coastline. Two Naval Ships it was in the process of working out internal located near the target point tracked the arrangements to ensure supply of uranium missile in the terminal phase of the Flight. to New Delhi. Australian Foreign Minister

Bob Carr conveyed this to External Affairs Indigenously developed by DRDO the Minister S M Krishna during their talks missile is already in the arsenal of Indian here in the Cambodian capital on the Armed Forces and was launched by the sidelines of the ASEAN Ministerial Strategic Forces Command as part of meeting.training exercise to ensure preparedness.

"As you are aware, Labor party had earlier DrSaraswat congratulated all the Scientists decided to reverse its policy and supply and employees of DRDO and the Armed uranium to India. Carr informed the forces for the successful launch. External Affairs Minister that they are in the

process of working out internal http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=0 arrangements which will enable them to

give effect to this policy of the Labor Party and as a government they will finalise this (arrangement) and come to India shortly with the draft," pti reported quoting India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin as saying.

He said Krishna appreciated the commitment and told his Australian

Kenneth N. Waltz, Foreign Affairs, counterpart that he was looking forward to July/August 2012Canberra taking next steps in this regard.

"The External Affairs Minister noted this commitment and said that he looks forward to the government of Australia providing the next steps in this efforts," the MEA spokesperson said.

http://www.irna.ir/News/Politic/Australia-working-to-ensure-uranium-supply-to-India/80226068

Press Information Bureau

India's 700 km range ballistic missile, 'AGNI I' was successfully launched today from the wheeler island off the coast of Odisha. It was a textbook launch meeting all mission objectives and the missile

The past several months have witnessed a heated debate over the best way for the United States and Israel to respond to Iran's nuclear activities. As the argument has raged, the United States has tightened its already robust sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic, and the European Union announced in January that it will begin an embargo on Iranian oil on July 1. Although the United States, the EU, and Iran have recently returned to the negotiating table, a palpable sense of crisis still looms.

It should not. Most U.S., European, and Israeli commentators and policymakers warn that a nuclear-armed Iran would be the worst possible outcome of the current standoff. In fact, it would probably be the best possible result: the one most likely to


restore stability to the Middle East.

POWER BEGS TO BE BALANCED

The crisis over Iran's nuclear program could end in three different ways. First, diplomacy coupled with serious sanctions could convince Iran to abandon its pursuit of a nuclear weapon. But this outcome is unlikely: the historical record indicates that a country bent on acquiring nuclear weapons can rarely be dissuaded from doing so. Punishing a state through economic sanctions does not inexorably derail its nuclear program. Take North Korea, which succeeded in building its weapons despite countless rounds of sanctions and UN Security Council resolutions. If Tehran determines that its security depends on possessing nuclear weapons, sanctions are unlikely to change its mind. In fact, adding still more sanctions now could make Iran feel even more vulnerable, giving it still more reason to seek the protection of the ultimate deterrent.

The second possible outcome is that Iran stops short of testing a nuclear weapon but develops a breakout capability, the capacity to build and test one quite quickly. Iran would not be the first country to acquire a sophisticated nuclear program without building an actual bomb. Japan, for instance, maintains a vast civilian nuclear infrastructure. Experts believe that it could produce a nuclear weapon on short notice.

Read more: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137731/kenneth-n-waltz/why-iran-should-get-the-bomb

Iran and the Bomb: Would a Nuclear Iran Make the Middle East More Secure?

nuclear-armed Iran could be deterred from deliberately using nuclear weapons or transferring a nuclear device to terrorists ("Why Iran Should Get the Bomb," July/August 2012). But he is dead wrong that the Islamic Republic would likely become a more responsible international actor if it crossed the nuclear threshold. In m a k i n g t h a t a r g u m e n t , W a l t z mischaracterizes Iranian motivations and badly misreads history. And despite the fact that Waltz is one of the world's most respected international relations theorists, he ignores important political science research into the effects of nuclear weapons, including recent findings that suggest that new nuclear states are often more reckless and aggressive at lower levels of conflict.

RATIONAL BUT DANGEROUS

Waltz correctly notes that Iran's leaders, despite their fanatical rhetoric, are fundamentally rational. Because Iran's leadership is not suicidal, it is highly unlikely that a nuclear-armed Iran would deliberately use a nuclear device or transfer one to terrorists. Yet even though the Islamic Republic is rational, it is still dangerous, and it is likely to become even more so if it develops nuclear weapons.

Iran's government currently sponsors terrorist groups and supports militants throughout the Middle East, in part to demonstrate a capability to retaliate against the United States, Israel, and other states should they attack Iran or undermine its interests. If the Iranian leadership's sole concern was its own survival and it believed that a nuclear deterrent alone could give it enough protection, then as a nuclear state, it might curtail its support for proxies in order to avoid needless disputes with other nuclear powers.

But Iran is not a status quo state, and its Colin H. Kahl and Kenneth N. Waltz,

support for terrorists and militants is Foreign Affairs, July 17, 2012 Colin H. Kahl

intended to be for more than just defense and retaliation. Such support is an offensive

Kenneth Waltz is probably right that a


tool, designed to pressure and intimidate least the option of building a nuclear bomb other states, indirectly expand Iran's without risk of military retaliation. The influence, and advance its revisionist P5+1 wants to remove that possibility. agenda, which seeks to make Iran the Those are difficult positions to reconcile.preeminent power in the Middle East, champion resistance to Israel and "arrogant The P5+1 continue to seek substantial limits powers" in the West, promote its brand of on Iranian nuclear activities. They clearly revolutionary Islamist ideology, and assert want Iran to stop enrichment at Fordow, the its leadership in the wider Islamic world... hardened facility that was revealed in 2009,

and to ship the moderately enriched Read More: uranium that's been produced there out of http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137781 the country. They also insist that Iran /colin-h-kahl-and-kenneth-n-waltz/iran-and- suspend enrichment more broadly, though the-bomb the exact terms they want are unclear, and

that Iran come clean about the military dimensions of its past (and possibly present) activities.

Council for Foreign Relations, July 5, 2012 Iran, meanwhile, has been vague about the potential for movement on the Fordow and medium enriched uranium fronts, and has Interviewee: Michael A. Levi, David M. made clear that it does not foresee limits on Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and its other enrichment activities. It has made the Environment and Director of the noises about some cooperation on the Program on Energy Security and Climate military issues, but there has been no Changesubstantive progress thus far. In exchange A u t h o r : T o n i J o h n s o n , S e n i o r for any meaningful movement on any of the Editor/Senior Staff Writerissues under discussion, Iran is looking for all the current and pending sanctions to be This week marks a fourth round of talks waived.between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the

five permanent members of the UN Which country has the most leverage in Security Council plus Germany) on Iran's this negotiation process and what can we controversial nuclear program. CFR's expect from them?Michael Levi, an expert on nuclear security

issues, says it will be difficult for the two Iran probably has the most leverage right sides to reconcile their positions. "I don't see now. It's the one building out its nuclear any signs of success at this week's meeting infrastructure--barring military action, it's or of progress going forward," he says. the only one that can start or stop that "Perhaps the best one can say is that there dynamic. That makes it difficult to come to wasn't a complete meltdown." Levi says a resolution that the P5+1 will be satisfied that real progress would "be a clear Iranian with. Iran also has the benefit of being able willingness to negotiate on its entire to play six different countries against each program (not just Fordow) and a clear P5+1 other. So far, they've largely held together, willingness to contemplate some residual but that's never entirely solid.enrichment activities."

The P5+1 are gaining more leverage as Can you briefly outline the issues--what sanctions mount--when you add new each side is asking for, and their sanctions, you gain a new bargaining chip: importance?you can remove them. But a stalemate with lots of sanctions and an Iranian nuclear The best way to think about both sides' bomb is a loss for the P5+1.bottom lines is this: Iran wants to create at

The Iran Nuclear Talks Impasse

potential military sites, particularly since those sites seem to have been extensively The EU began oil sanctions this week. cleaned by the Iranians. If they can offer What kind of impact will that have on

negotiations going forward? something to the P5+1 through this, without compromising their program, that

The new sanctions can only help the P5+1. might be a wise move. It won't, however, There is clear evidence that sanctions help much if at all with the P5+1 talks--after already implemented in recent months all, the P5+1 already believe that the Iranian have reduced the volumes of oil that Iran program has at least latent military intent; can sell and the price Iran gets for the oil they aren't waiting for inspections to that it's able to successfully market. Falling establish that.world oil prices have also cut deeply into Iran's bottom line. But we don't know Do you have any policy recommendations exactly how much pressure Iranian leaders for a way forward beyond more sanctions?are feeling. And sanctions alone are highly

More sanctions are great at creating unlikely to prompt Iran to submit to all of pressure--but the P5+1, and the United the P5+1's demands. Sanctions work best States in particular, need to lay a tough but when there's a plausible exit route, and it's plausible alternative resolution on the unclear if anything like that has been table. Richard Haass and I described one identified by the parties.such option in the Wall Street Journal earlier this year. Iran would end its Was this week's meeting successful in any

way? Are there signs of progress or what production of medium enriched uranium, might progress look like going forward? ship its existing stocks out of the country,

and the two sides would negotiate limits to I don't see any signs of success at this week's other Iranian enrichment activities, meeting or of progress going forward. including technology development. Tough Perhaps the best one can say is that there new inspections on a continuous basis (in wasn't a complete meltdown. That's to be many cases through remote monitoring expected: both sides have an interest in rather than boots on the ground) would prolonging the talks if they believe that also be necessary, with a tradeoff between they'll forestall an Israeli military strike stricter physical limits and more intrusive (and if, in the case of the P5+1, they believe inspections. The other side of the offer from that such a strike would be unwise at the the P5+1 would be an end to the nuclear-present time). I have a difficult time seeing related sanctions. This, to me, would be the progress come incrementally, at least in the best approach--I have no idea whether it sense of a partial deal. Progress to me would resolve the impasse, but it or would be a clear Iranian willingness to something like it needs to be tried. Right negotiate on its entire program (not just now, though, the prospects look bleak.Fordow) and a clear P5+1 willingness to contemplate some residual enrichment http://www.cfr.org/iran/iran-nuclear-talks-activities. Much more would need to come impasse/p28665 afterwards, but that would at least shift the definition of what's being discussed.

The Iranians are also in negotiations directly with the IAEA. Can we expect any By Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi & progress there, and will it help with the Muhammad Sahimi, Foreign Policy, July 5, P5+1 talks? 2012

We might see some progress in the IAEA O n l y d a y s p r i o r t o t h e o f f i c i a l negotiations, which concern access to commencement of the European Union's

The Sanctions Aren't Working


embargo on Iranian oil, Mark Dubowitz, the population, preventing millions of the executive director of the Foundation for households from being plunged into the Defense of Democracies, penned an op- deprivation and hunger. If one wishes to ed in Foreign Policy entitled "Battle Rial," take Dubowitz's argument to its logical calling again -- as he has repeatedly -- on the extreme, why not just embargo the United States to step up what he admits is foodstuffs and medicine directly -- they "economic warfare" against Iran and its sustain Iran's nuclear scientists and more than 76 million people. Economic personnel, after all -- so that they are sanctions kill people -- as shown vividly in incapable of furthering the technical Iraq -- and may eventually lead to military development of Iran's nuclear program?attacks that will kill even more. This is not "defending democracy," but advocating Sanctions were initially supposed to war and destruction. directly target Iran's nuclear program -- and

then, as the net widened, military In contradiction to the statements by the organizations such as the Islamic most senior officials of U.S. President Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and its Barack Obama's administration, from engineering arm, the Khatam-al-Anbia, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to Director along with persistent human rights of National Intelligence James Clapper to violators, such as officials of the Ministry of CIA Director David Petraeus, Dubowitz Intelligence. However, the sanctions have asserts that Iran is pursuing a nuclear turned into an all-encompassing iron fist weapon. He does not present a shred of geared to the destruction of Iran's most evidence or even a reference for his claim, important source of revenue, the energy which contravenes even Israeli military and sector. Dubowitz even advocates targeting intelligence assessments -- notably that of Iran's automotive industry -- a sector that IDF chief Benny Gantz and the former provides thousands of jobs to ordinary heads of both Mossad and Shin Bet. Iranians with no discernible connection to Moreover, despite questions over alleged the country's nuclear program.past weapons research, the International If Dubowitz's aim is not a diplomatic Atomic Energy Agency has found no solution, but rather driving an already evidence of the diversion of fissile material angry and restive population to the point of from Iranian nuclear sites for non-peaceful despair so that it rises up against the ruling purposes. theocracy, he should plainly state so. But is

such a goal even achievable at the present Although Dubowitz's approach has not yet time? The aftermath of Iran's hotly received a ringing endorsement from the contested -- and by many accounts Obama administration, many in Congress fraudulent -- 2009 presidential election saw have been more than ready to lend a unprecedented protests and the rise of the sympathetic ear. Dubowitz calls upon the home-grown Green Movement, which had White House to support legislation that been in the making for some 20 years. The would blacklist the entire Iranian energy movement did not realize its goals because sector as a "zone of primary proliferation the opposition was disorganized and did concern." This legislation, in its attempts to not have a comprehensive plan for how to link Iran's entire energy sector to its proceed. Its leadership and its advisers unproven nuclear weapons program, is an were quickly rounded up, jailed, and unprecedented move that seeks to deliver a silenced. The opposition, both inside and knockout blow to Iran by further eroding outside the country, is now in an even the revenues obtained through oil sales, weaker state. Still, the opposition inside which account for some 80 percent of the Iran and a significant portion of the country's export earnings. It is these funds opposition in the diaspora reject foreign that allow the country to purchase basic intervention and sanctions as a form of foodstuffs such as wheat and grain to feed collective punishment -- they know their


enfeebled position isn't helped by economic devastating human cost of the policies he so warfare and the threat of military attacks. zealously advocates. Military attacks occur

not against a program, but against nuclear Although there is little doubt that the facilities -- and they would be a clear hardliners around Supreme Leader Ali violation of international law, in the Khamenei's office, the top brass of the absence of a U.N. resolution and so long as IRGC, and leading figures in the the Islamic Republic has not attacked any Intelligence Ministry will continue to other country. Iran's nuclear technology, repress opposition to their rule, the moreover, is the result of years of research. constant state of emergency will only It cannot be destroyed by killing a few benefit them and legitimize their raison individuals or razing some nuclear d'être in the face of an external enemy. The installations to the ground. There is also no remaining oil revenues, which flow into the such thing as an attack only on Iran's country from oil exports to China, Japan, nuclear infrastructure, as it sprawls across India, and others, will stay firmly in the the entire country, often close to major hands of the hardliners and the repressive population centers. Thus, any attack on organs of the state. Meanwhile, youth Iran's nuclear infrastructure will result in unemployment -- which accounts for 70 thousands of casualties, if not more.percent of unemployment -- will rise higher, and the quality of life of the The Iranian government also shares underprivileged and retirees reliant on responsibility for tensions having reached government handouts for their meager this point. But it is not the sole party existence will decline further. deserving of blame. And despite

unprecedented "economic warfare," it will Punitive sanctions have a poor track record be able to continue its nuclear program -- in achieving U.S. goals. One should recall albeit at the cost of great suffering of the clear failure of comparable sanctions in ordinary Iranian people. A more balanced Cuba as well as Iraq, where they eventually and measured diplomatic strategy is led to a military invasion (based on lies and needed if the West is genuinely interested exaggerations) at great human cost. in ensuring Iran's nuclear program will Although regimes under such sanctions remain peaceful and cease to pose a might be weakened in relative terms to proliferation risk.other states in the international system, such steps only make them relatively more Unparalleled economic warfare and powerful vis-à-vis their respective military threats, on the other hand, will not populations and civil societies. only destroy the prospect of democracy in

Iran for many years to come, but will In the space of a single article, Dubowitz consolidate an already authoritarian also illustrates the inexorable slide from regime and plunge one of the most pro-crippling sanctions to military conflict. American populations in the Middle East Instead of considering the possibility of into economic destitution and apathy. engagement, he ends the article by Dubowitz should ponder the consequences describing what the United States should of what he suggests before so cavalierly d o i f " e c o n o m i c w a r f a r e " w e r e threatening the lives of millions of Iranians.unsuccessful: "The president needs to unite the country in moving beyond sanctions http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07

/05/the_sanctions_aren_t_working and preparing for U.S. military strikes against Iran's nuclear weapons program," he writes.

The very language Dubowitz employs misrepresents the facts and ignores the UKPA, July 19, 2012

Nuclear weapons 'can be traded in'


An independent Scotland could trade its personnel "would not be sufficient for the share of the UK's nuclear arsenal "for needs of the independent state".something more useful", First Minister Alex Salmond has said. He will back SNP http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/ar

ticle/ALeqM5idqwEXIGnpiQUwXzTAjF6iZWestminster leader Angus Robertson's GW7uQ?docId=N0274481342620026968A attempt to drop the party's decades-old

rejection of the nuclear-armed military alliance Nato, provided Scotland can ditch its nukes.

"The nuclear weapons concerned are not Scotland's nuclear weapons," Mr Salmond Daryl G. Kimball , Arms Control said at his Bute House residence. "If they are Association, July/August 2012, regarded as an asset, which I would find difficult to regard it as, then I am quite Nearly 10 years have elapsed since the certain that we can trade that asset for International Atomic Energy Agency something more useful." Experts predict (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had secretly that independence would herald built a uranium-enrichment facility. Nearly prolonged negotiation over the UK's seven years have passed since talks military assets. Mr Salmond was between Iran and the European Union "surprised" by comments from former Nato stalled and Iran resumed its enrichment secretary general Lord Robertson who told activities. Since then, Iran and the the Daily Record newspaper that the SNP P5+1—China, France, Germany, Russia, has to accept that "Nato is a nuclear alliance the United Kingdom, and the United and members will retain nuclear weapons". S t a t e s — h a v e f u m b l e d f l e e t i n g

opportunities to reach a deal that reduces Mr Salmond said: "When he actually was the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran in exchange Nato secretary general, in a speech to the for a rollback of proliferation-related Moscow State Institute on Foreign sanctions.Relations from February 21 2001, Lord Robertson said: In the founding act, Nato There is still time for diplomacy, but both committed itself to the famous three sides need to move with greater urgency nuclear Nos: no intention, no plan, and no toward a lasting solution. Iran apparently reason to establish nuclear weapons has not made a strategic decision to pursue storage sites on the territory of new nuclear weapons and does not yet have the members; a commitment still valid. necessary ingredients for an effective "Clearly Lord Robertson's memory is nuclear arsenal, but its enrichment escaping him. What he is saying about capabilities are improving. By year's end, Scotland seems to be different to what Iran could install more-advanced applies to 25 out of 28 member countries in centrifuges and significantly increase its the Nato alliance." enriched-uranium stockpile.

Angus Robertson's resolution, which will A deal that ties Iran's enrichment activities be debated by delegates at the SNP's and its stockpiles to the actual needs of October conference, states that Scotland Iran's nuclear power plants, combined with "will inherit its treaty obligations with more extensive IAEA safeguards, could Nato". This suggests that Scotland will not sufficiently guard against a nuclear-armed be a "new member" but a successor state in Iran. Pursuing such a course is difficult, but the SNP's analysis. Last month defence it is the best option on the table.consultant Stewart Crawford told the Commons Scottish Affairs Committee that Tighter international sanctions can help Scotland's defence equipment and slow the advance of Iran's nuclear and

Pursue the Diplomatic Track on Iran


missile programs and increase pressure on weapons grade, in exchange for fuel Tehran to negotiate seriously. Yet, assemblies for its Tehran Research Reactor sanctions alone will not halt Iran's nuclear and medical isotopes. This would be pursuits. The so-called military option consistent with the principle that Iran has would be counterproductive and costly for the right under the NPT only to enrich in all sides. Potential Israeli or U.S. air strikes full compliance with safeguards and only could set back Iran's program for no more for legitimate civilian purposes and could than a couple of years and would likely lead serve as a basis for a broader deal to limit its leaders to withdraw from the nuclear the size and scope of its enrichment Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and openly program.pursue nuclear weapons. Further cyberattacks on Iran's nuclear installations To help get to “yes,” the P5+1 should offer may buy time, but also deepen mistrust and to suspend the European oil embargo that increase the determination of Iran's leaders formally goes into effect this month, offer to to expand their nuclear program. ease the restrictions that will bar European

shipping insurers from covering ships that Given the infrequency of serious, direct carry Iranian oil to buyers around the talks with Tehran on its disputed nuclear world, or both. The effect would be largely program, the failure to achieve a diplomatic symbolic because most EU states have breakthrough at the latest meeting in already stopped buying Iranian oil. If Iran Moscow is disappointing but not does not follow through with tangible surprising. There is a risk that both sides steps, these new sanctions could be will harden their stances and effectively put formally reinstated.the tenuous diplomatic process on hold until next year. That would be a serious Failure to find a way to halt Iran's mistake. accumulation of 20 percent-enriched

uranium would be irresponsible, as it The three rounds of nuclear talks in 2012 would make it easier for Iran to acquire the have revealed the substantial differences capability for a faster nuclear weapons between the two sides, but an initial breakout.confidence-building deal is still within reach if both sides provide greater For its part, Iran could make a deal and flexibility and creativity. sanctions relief more likely if it would

immediately cooperate with the IAEA on I r a n ' s r e p o r t e d p r o p o s a l f o r inspections of key sites and personnel to “operationalizing” Supreme Leader ensure that past weapons-related Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's fatwa against experiments have been discontinued. In nuclear weapons, its call for sanctions relief addition, Iran must clarify when it will in return for cooperation with the IAEA, allow IAEA inspections under the terms of and its reported offer to consider limits on an additional protocol to its safeguards enrichment above normal fuel grade are all agreement.worth exploring. The task now is to acquire sufficient detail on the proposals, sort out Some cynics and critics of the diplomatic sequencing issues, and recalibrate positions option wrongly suggest that further to achieve a win-win deal at the next round negotiations with Iran only allow Iran to of discussions. “buy time” for nefarious nuclear pursuits.

The reality is that international and national The top priority for the P5+1 must continue sanctions will remain in place until Iran to be a deal that halts Iran's accumulation of takes the steps necessary to provide 20 percent-enriched uranium, which is confidence it is not pursuing nuclear above normal fuel grade and closer to weapons. Iran's enrichment program goes


IISS Strategic Commentno faster or slower as talks continue. Without a deal to curb Iran's nuclear pursuits, however, Iran's capabilities will Financial sanctions and oil embargoes only grow over time. imposed since December 2011 by the

United States and European Union http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012_0708/F respectively have tightened the economic ocus pressure on Iran and, along with United

Nations Security Council sanctions imposed in June 2010, could yet deal a knock-out blow to the country 's development of long-range ballistic missiles.

There is mounting evidence to suggest that, Hui Zhang , Bulletin of the Atomic whereas the sanctions regime has not Scientists, Vol 68, Issue 4, July 13, 2012prevented Tehran from operating an increased number of centrifuges for ABSTRACTuranium-enrichment activities or adding to its stockpile of fissile material, it has Under the guiding principles of its nuclear stymied efforts to develop and produce the policy - maintaining a minimum deterrent, long-range ballistic missiles capable of asserting a no-first-use pledge, and striking potential targets in western Europe avoiding a nuclear arms race - China is and beyond. If sanctions continue to modernizing its nuclear forces to assure a disrupt Tehran's access to the key l i m i t e d , r e l i a b l e , a n d e f f e c t i v e propellant ingredients and components counterattack capability that will deter a needed to produce large solid-propellant first nuclear strike. China's nuclear rocket motors, Iranian attempts to develop modernization has been focusing on the and field long-range ballistic missiles could quality rather than the quantity of its be significantly impeded, if not halted nuclear forces for the past three decades. altogether. There is no convincing evidence the

country has expanded its arsenal Liquid-propellant missiles significantly. Based on the Chinese

government's statements about its nuclear Soon after the start of the Iran–Iraq War in modernization efforts and available public 1980, Tehran initiated a two-track effort to information, the author estimates that acquire ballistic missiles and related C h i n a h a s a t o t a l i n v e n t o r y o f technologies to compensate for its barely approximately 170 nuclear warheads. This operational air force. The first track focused estimate is significantly lower than on the immediate acquisition of short-previous appraisals. range, liquid-propellant Scud-B missiles from Libya, Syria and North Korea for use against Iraqi cities during the latter stages For Academic Citation: Zhang, Hui. "How of the war. The perceived success of the US Restraint Can Keep China's Nuclear missile attacks led Iran to purchase Arsenal Small." Bulletin of the Atomic additional 300km-range Scud-Bs from Scientists 68, no. 4 (July 13, 2012): 73-82.Pyongyang, along with 500km-range Scud-Cs, in the 1990s, which it renamed Shahab-1 and -2.

Wishing to threaten targets as far afield as Israel, Iran began procuring medium-range

How US Restraint Can Keep China's Nuclear Arsenal Small

Iran sanctions halt long-range ballistic-missile development


No-dong missiles,known locally as Shahab- times heavier than the Scud-B. An 3s, from North Korea in the mid- to late- intercontinental-range missile would be 1990s. The imported No-dong/Shahab-3 even larger, weighing as much as 120 missiles, as received and initially tested by tonnes. While it might be possible to deploy Iran in 1998, had a maximum range of only missiles weighing 60 tonnes or more on 900km, meaning that they could only reach road-mobile launchers, they would be Israel if launched from sites near Iran's operationally cumbersome and vulnerable border with Iraq. In a quest to enhance pre- to pre-launch attack because of the launch survivability, Iranian engineers extended launch-site fuelling times and the spent almost a decade modifying the substantial logist ics and support Shahab-3 to create a longer-range version of infrastructure that must accompany the the missile, dubbed Ghadr-1. The Ghadr-1 missiles. Silo-basing would be a more has a maximum range of roughly 1,600km viable option, but deploying missiles at when carrying a relatively light payload of known and fixed sites would leave them 750kg and is believed to have entered vulnerable to pre-emptive attacks by an military service some time after 2007. If advanced military power, such as the US. fitted with a heavy payload, such as a notional first-generation nuclear warhead Solid-propellant missiles weighing upwards of 1,300kg, the Ghadr-1's maximum range would be reduced to The second missile-acquisition track roughly 1,100km. pursued by Iran focused on developing an

indigenous capacity to manufacture solid-Iran does not have the capacity to design, propellant systems. The approach did not develop and produce new, more powerful yield immediate results beyond the liquid-fuelled engines, and this is unlikely production of artillery rockets for use to change over the next decade. Available during its war with Iraq. However, over the evidence also indicates – but does not prove past two decades Iran has established the – that Iran cannot reliably build the liquid- technical wherewithal to build increasingly propellant engines that power its current larger, more powerful solid-propellant inventory of Scud and No-dong/Ghadr-1 motors capable of propelling longer-range missiles, a shortfall that likely leaves the systems.Islamic Republic susceptible to supplier controls and unable to add to its stockpile of Presently, Iran is developing a two-stage, operational liquid-fuelled missiles. Iranian solid-fuelled missile with a maximum engineers may one day establish a capacity range of about 2,000km. Once fully to produce near-copies of the Scud and No- developed, the missile, known as Sajjil-2, dong engines, but such endeavours are will offer Iran three significant strategic rarely successful – replica engines do not benefits. Firstly, solid-propellant missiles perform as well as the originals and often can be launched more quickly than their prove to be unreliable. liquid-fuelled counterparts, and they

require a much smaller logistical The relatively low energy output of the infrastructure to support operations, two Soviet-legacy engines available to Iran will f a c t o r s t h a t e n h a n c e p r e - l a u n c h certainly complicate attempts to develop survivability. Moreover, because of their and deploy longer-range missiles. compact design and construction, solid-Intermediate-range missiles founded on propellant missiles can be more easily fitted No-dong and Scud engines and capable of on road-mobile launchers. Secondly, the reaching western European cities, for Sajjil-2's range–payload capacity is superior instance, would necessarily weigh 60–70 to that of the Ghadr-1, which would allow tonnes, making them at least four times the former to be launched against targets in heavier than the Ghadr-1 and ten to 12 Israel from less vulnerable sites deep inside


Iranian territory, even when carrying a missile-development efforts elsewhere heavy 1,300–1,500kg warhead. And finally, have required a minimum of a dozen test Sajjil technology will provide a foundation launches, and more typically 20 or more upon which larger, longer-range missiles flights to create a combat-ready system, the could be developed indigenously, should Sajjil-2 would require at least another half-Tehran seek such a capability. dozen flight tests. Having historically

a p p l i e d d i s c i p l i n e d e n g i n e e r i n g The development of the Sajjil-2 began about management practices to its missile and a dozen years ago with the acquisition of space-launcher development efforts, there the necessary production equipment and is nothing to suggest that Iran would expect infrastructure, most probably from China. its military to accept an unproven strategic In May 2005, then-Defence Minister Rear weapon system. Admiral Ali Shamkhani announced that Iran had successfully ground tested a large Iran's missile-related activities suggest that solid-propellant rocket motor, which the reason for the hiatus is not that it is would later emerge as the roughly 13-tonne seeking to avoid provoking international first stage of the Sajjil-2 missile. opprobrium for violating UN sanctions.UN

Security Council Resolution 1929, adopted The initial but unsuccessful flight test of the in June 2010, specifically declares in new missile, known at the time as Ashura, Paragraph 9 'that Iran shall not undertake was conducted in November 2007. During a any activity related to ballistic missiles second test launch the following year, the capable of delivering nuclear weapons, missile, now named Sajjil, was apparently including launches using ballistic missile equipped with only an active first stage; the technology'. But Iran has repeatedly second stage was an inert dummy. A ignored this proscription and other successful Sajjil launch in 2008 was elements of the UN sanctions. The Sajjil-2 followed by three flight tests of a two-stage and Ghadr-1 were both tested in February Sajjil-2 missile in May, September and 2011, in clear violation of UNSCR 1929. The December 2009. The progressively shorter Qiam, a modified Scud-C missile also interval between tests – a typical feature of capable of carrying a nuclear weapon, was development programmes – suggests that initially flight tested in August 2010. And Iran was enjoying success with the Sajjil-2 during war games held in early summer effort through 2009. Surprisingly, however, 2011, and again in July 2012, the Shahab-3 Iran did not test the Sajjil-2 in 2010. Not and other shorter-range missiles were fired until February 2011 did engineers conduct under operational conditions. Finally, Iran the sixth flight, roughly 14 months after the placed two satellites into low-earth orbit December 2009 launch. No additional tests using the Safir carrier rocket, whose first are known to have occurred since February stage is based on the Ghadr-1 missile. 2011. Another satellite launch is scheduled for

this summer. Possible reasons for the hiatus

The discovery of a major design fault in the Though the paucity of Sajjil-2 tests over the new missile could also be responsible for last 30 months could be interpreted as a the suspension of testing. Interruptions in signal that Iran has completed the missile-development programmes are development process and begun deploying common and expected. However, the missile to military units, this is highly programme delays caused by design unlikely. Iran has not undertaken a defects discovered during preliminary sufficient number of test launches to flight testing are typically measured in validate the performance and reliability of months, not years. Moreover, five of the six the new missile. Given that solid-fuelled test launches conducted to date appear to


have succeeded, at least partially, As the size of the solid-propellant motor suggesting that the basic design of the Sajjil- increases, the complexity of the production 2 is sound. process and the need for high-quality

ingredients and strict adherence to quality-Explosions at the Bid Ganeh missile facility control measures becomes increasingly some 40km southwest of Tehran in critical to success.November 2011 could also have derailed the missile-testing programme, by robbing Obtaining propellant ingredients from the Iran of its core solid-propellant missile- same producer and using the same production and -testing expertise. Major- production process bolsters the quality-General Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, the control process. More important, perhaps, so-called 'godfather' of Iran's missile is the fact that using the same supplier for programme, was killed in the blasts along each propellant component minimises the with more than a dozen of his colleagues. potential introduction of minor deviations But even though replacing key personnel in the chemical and physical characteristics and resurrecting development activities, of the ingredients. Indeed, seemingly including the production line, could benign or undetected deviations can have a possibly delay the programme by years, the substantial and unpredictable effect on the explosions occurred nine months after the mechanical and combustion properties of last Sajjil-2 test in February 2011 and two the fabricated rocket motors. For this years after the sudden break in flight- reason, solid-fuelled rocket-motor testing activities. Also, the engineering manufacturers are loath to change d i s c i p l i n e e x h i b i t e d d u r i n g t h e suppliers during serial production.development of the Shahab-3 and Ghadr-1 missiles, the Safir space launcher, as well as Iran may have the industrial capacity to the Sajjil-2 efforts to date, indicates that Iran produce some, or even most of the key has institutionalised the fundamental propellant ingredients to support the knowledge, production practices and manufacture of small solid-fuelled rocket technical procedures that led to these motors, such as those that power the two-earlier successes. tonne Zelzal and Fateh-110 systems.

However, the quality of locally produced Supply-chain disruption ingredients very likely falls short of the

requirements for the production of the The most likely explanation, however, much larger Sajjil-2 rocket motors.centres on Iran's inability to establish a reliable supply chain for the high-quality Iran's history of importing key propellant solid-propellant ingredients needed to components underscores this assessment. produce the Sajjil-2. The panel of experts responsible for

overseeing UNSCR 1929 compliance, for Solid-propellant rocket motors run on a example, reported the interception in mixture of oxidiser salts, aluminium Singapore on 30 September 2010 of 302 powder and other minor ingredients bound drums of pure aluminium powder destined together by a rubber-like substance that for Iran from China. The seized aluminium acts as a fuel constituent and provides powder was suitable solely for solid-structural integrity to the end product. propellant production. Diplomatic cables After undergoing rigorous quality checks, made public by WikiLeaks provide each ingredient is introduced into a large, additional evidence of Iran's worldwide specialised mixer; once combined, the search for propellant ingredients, including ingredients are poured into a motor casing attempted acquisitions from India and and cured to form a solid, homogeneous China.mass with the consistency of a pencil eraser.


With each change in supplier, for each JUDY WOODRUFF: Now: two views on component ingredient, Iranian engineers whether a nuclear-armed Iran makes the would need to have revalidated the Middle East a safer place.production line for Sajjil-2 rocket motors, a costly, time-consuming process that would John Mearsheimer is a professor at the require additional ground tests to confirm University of Chicago. He's a West Point performance and reliability. Worse yet graduate and former Air Force officer. And from the Iranian perspective, production he's written extensively on strategic issues. engineers may not be able to manufacture Dov Zakheim served in the Pentagon rocket motors that behave in a predictable during the administrations of George W. and repeatable fashion because of Bush and Ronald Reagan. He's now a senior uncontrollable and possibly undetected adviser at the Center for Strategic and deviations in the constituent propellant International Studies.ingredients. Lacking a reliable rocket-motor production line, Iran cannot pursue a John Mearsheimer, I'm going to start with viable development effort capable of you.distinguishing between design faults and manufacturing defects, or of validating This all did start with that article in "Foreign missile performance over a range of Affairs" magazine by Kenneth Waltz. You operational conditions. And for the same don't go as far as he does in arguing that a reason, Iran will find it profoundly difficult nuclear-armed Iran would be a net positive. to manufacture large rocket motors for an But you do agree with him that it would operational missile with predictable bring stability to the region. Why?performance and reliability.

JOHN MEARSHEIMER, University of While it is impossible for outsiders to Chicago: I think there's no question that a identify the precise reasons behind the nuclear-armed Iran would bring stability to stalled Sajjil-2 programme, it is reasonable the region, because nuclear weapons are to conclude that trade sanctions have weapons of peace. They're weapons of disrupted Iran's access to key propellant deterrence.i n g r e d i e n t s a n d c o m p r o m i s e d development efforts. If true, and if future They have hardly any offensive capability applications of sanctions prevent Iran from at all. And if Iran had a nuclear deterrent, establishing a reliable source of propellant there's no way that the United States or ingredients regulated by the Missile Israel, for that matter, would be threatening Technology Control Regime, the Islamic to attack Iran now, in the same way that if Republic will not be able to create missiles Saddam had had nuclear weapons in 2003, capable of threatening western Europe, the United States wouldn't have invaded much less the United States, before the end Iraq, and if Libya had nuclear weapons in of this decade. 2011, the United States wouldn't have gone

to war against Libya.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-c o m m e n t s / p a s t - i s s u e s / v o l u m e - 1 8 - So I think that if you had a Middle East 2012/july/iran-sanctions-halt-long-range- where other states besides Israel -- and this, ballistic-missile-development/ of course, includes Iran -- had a nuclear

deterrent, it would be a more peaceful region. But the problem is that there is always some small possibility that there will be nuclear use.

And the most likely scenario is what's PBS NEWSHOUR, July 9, 2012

oftentimes referred to as inadvertent

N u c l e a r - A r m e d I r a n Would Bring 'Stability' But Risks


escalation. And this is where you have a DOV ZAKHEIM: Either because they will conventional war that starts off with no be afraid of Iranian nuclear blackmail, or intention of turning into a nuclear war, but they will be afraid that Iran could transfer inadvertently escalates to the nuclear level. technology to those who might attack them

in some way.And you can hypothesize all sorts of s i tuations, for example, where a I mean, after all, look at what Pakistan did conventional war between India and with its nuclear technology. Look at what Pakistan, which both have nuclear North Korea did with its nuclear weapons, escalates from the conventional technology.to the nuclear level. And, of course, the same logic applies to the Middle East. JUDY WOODRUFF: So you're saying it

would set off an arms race?There's only a small, a very small possibility that that would happen. But that small DOV ZAKHEIM: It will set off a chain of possibility is enough to make me very wary nuclear weapon states.of the idea of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. And what you will then have is essentially,

from Europe's borders with Russia, all the JUDY WOODRUFF: OK. So you're saying way to China, nuclear states cheek by jowl, you buy the idea it adds stability. You do and all it takes is one mistake.have the very serious caveat about the idea of conventional warfare getting out of JUDY WOODRUFF: John Mearsheimer, control. why wouldn't that happen, which would

clearly not be a more stable situation?But let's just focus on this idea that it would bring stability, Dov Zakheim. You heard JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, it's possible John Mearsheimer say that they are there will be some proliferation. It wouldn't inherently peaceful weapons. They are a bet against the fact that maybe Turkey or deterrent, as they were during the Cold Saudi Arabia would acquire nuclear War. What about that argument? weapons.

DOV ZAKHEIM, former Pentagon official: But people have been predicting Well, inherently peaceful is hard to imagine widespread proliferation for decades now, in terms of nuclear weapons. They ended and it's never happened. But I think there World War II, after all. are two reasons that it wouldn't happen.

One is that the Iranians wouldn't be able to But the problem is sort of magnified by blackmail anybody in the neighborhood what John Mearsheimer just said. If Iran with their nuclear weapons.acquires these weapons -- that's assuming that the Israelis don't attack ahead of time or We have created this myth in this country that someone else doesn't attack ahead of over the past few years in talking about Iran time -- if they get these weapons, that is that any country that acquires nuclear definitely going to cause at least three or weapons can blackmail other countries or four more countries in the region to acquire use those nuclear weapons for offensive those weapons as well, probably Saudi purposes. We have a lot of theory and a Arabia, probably the United Arab Emirates, huge amount of empirical evidence, 67 possibly Turkey, possibly Egypt. years now, which show that no country

with nuclear weapons can blackmail JUDY WOODRUFF: You mean because another country, as long as somebody is they would want to. . . protecting that country or it has its own

nuclear weapons.


And this leads to the second reason. The he wrote, that this longstanding -- the fact United States is going to extend its nuclear that Israel alone has had nuclear weapons umbrella over Saudi Arabia and over has created an imbalance, and that as long Turkey, the way it extended it over as that's the case, there will be an imbalance Germany and Japan during the Cold War. in the region.And we will make it perfectly clear to the Iranians that they cannot blackmail DOV ZAKHEIM: Yes. In fact, what he said anybody. is that it's caused instability, Israel has, for

the last 40 years.So there will be no great incentive for Turkey or for Saudi Arabia to acquire So, therefore, Israel's nuke already nuclear weapons. But even if they do weapons caused the Iran-Iraq war of the acquire nuclear weapons, what are they 1980s. It caused Saddam Hussein's invasion going to do with them? of Kuwait in 1990. It's caused the Arab

spring and all the instability that has taken JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, I will turn that place there. Of course it's the cause of the back with you, and then I want to follow up Syrian civil war as well. Look at all the with a question. things the Israeli nuclear weapons have

caused.DOV ZAKHEIM: Sure.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Quick response, Mr. The problem is, of course, it's not likely that Mearsheimer.anybody is going to use them. But if there's any chance at all, any chance that somebody JOHN MEARSHEIMER: But I don't think might, the more countries that have these that Israel has caused hardly any of those weapons, the likelier it becomes that problems. There's no debate with Dov on someone might use them. that particular point.

And, in a crisis -- most people think that But the fact is that if Iran had nuclear nuclear weapons may well ultimately be weapons, it's extremely unlikely that you used in an Indo-Pak war. And they did go to would have another Iran-Iraq war. And if war after they tested nuclear weapons. So Iran had nuclear weapons, Israel and the the whole idea -- one of the things Waltz United States wouldn't be threatening Iran argues, by the way, is that countries with today. This is Waltz's basic point, that nuclear weapons don't go to war with each because nuclear weapons are weapons of other. In fact, they do. mass destruction and they would lead to

possible annihilation of any two countries Even China and the Soviet Union went to that got into a nuclear war, it therefore war. makes war extremely unlikely, or is

therefore unlikely when nuclear weapons JUDY WOODRUFF: Let me ask about -- are present.Dov Zakheim, another fundamental point. . . DOV ZAKHEIM: And that's not the case.

India and Pakistan went to war after they DOV ZAKHEIM: Sure. both had nuclear weapons.

JUDY WOODRUFF: . . . just quickly, that JUDY WOODRUFF: We hear you both. Kenneth Waltz makes. Very, very. . .

And that is that it is not Iran that would be JOHN MEARSHEIMER: I didn't say it was creating instability, but it's the existing impossible.instability created by Israel. You read what (LAUGHTER)


JUDY WOODRUFF: Very, very tough argues that Israel has had a nuclear subject. We thank you both, John monopoly that “has long fueled instability Mearsheimer, Dov Zakheim. in the Middle East” and suggests that a

nuclear Iran would become a stabilizing DOV ZAKHEIM: Thanks. balance.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, online, we have The first assertion is simply wrong: would a an interview with Kenneth Waltz, that non-nuclear Israel be viewed as scholar we spoke of whose foreign policy significantly different by Arab states? The article argues that a nuclear Iran would second assertion at best, oversimplifies the offer more stability, not less. reality.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july- Far Cry from the Cold Wardec12/iran2_07-09.html

Differences in geography, history, and culture between the contemporary Middle East and the bipolar realities of the Cold war–not to mention an entire region engulfed in turmoil of historic proportions– raise questions about how much the

Robert A. Manning, The Diplomat, July 20, balance-of-terror logic would apply to the

2012 region. The risks of miscalculation in a volatile region are enough to raise doubts.

Iran getting the bomb won't set off an arms race in the region. But it might provoke One need look no further than the some states, writes Robert Manning. In an antagonism between the Saudi/GCC essay sparking debate amongst the backing of anti-Assad forces and Iran's full-chattering classes, Kenneth Waltz, one of blown support for Damascus for evidence the nation's most prominent International of volatile passions bumping up against Relations (IR) scholars and the doyen of the each other. A Sunni-Shia quasi-proxy war is “neo-realist” school tries to make the case playing out not just in Syria but in varying “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb” in the degrees, across the region from Lebanon to July/August issue of Foreign Affairs. With Yemen. little optimism surrounding the next round of “5+1” talks set for next week (July 24th) Waltz argues that since, “an atomic Israel the question seems particularly timely. did not trigger an arms race…there is no

reason a nuclear Iran should now.” He While in some respects, this provocation is claims that once Iran crosses the nuclear an understandable counter to the end-of- threshold, deterrence will apply: “No other the-world hysteria that often surrounds the country in the region will have an incentive Iran nuclear debate, Waltz's essay suggests to acquire its own nuclear capability.”that IR theory suffers from a serious deficit of regional knowledge. Waltz is best known Really?for his classic 1981 essay, “Nuclear Has he talked to the Saudis, Egyptians or Weapons: More is Better,” in which he Turks lately?makes a compelling argument that nuclear weapons were a major reason why major Iran's nuclear program is dangerous in the powers have not gone to war since 1945. region for those concerned with the Certainly, the “balance of terror” created by proliferation of nuclear technology and its the awesome destructive power of nuclear possible militarization in later flashpoints. weapons was an important factor in Several countries in the region, from the keeping the Cold War 'cold'. Today, Waltz UAE to Jordan, are developing their own

A Response to Waltz: Why Iran Shouldn't Get the Bomb


nuclear energy programs. As NPT Afghanistan to Yemen so extensively that it members, they have a right to pursue is difficult to imagine that a nuclear Iran peaceful nuclear energy, and in some cases would sow much additional mischief.have legitimate energy needs. Yet Iran's ambitions and the tension it causes in the In fact, it is this Iranian imperialism — with region have the potential to change the a Shia missionary overlay — that makes nature of regional programs from peaceful Iran's nuclear ambitions particularly to militarized. troubling. Iran's actions suggest that it is

still a revolutionary state, not a status quo Waltz goes still further and argues that “the power seeking acceptance in the global nuclear age is now almost 70 years old, and order. One metric for that sort of behavior is so far, fears of proliferation have proved to the fate of the “5+1” nuclear talks. A failure be unfounded.” I guess India, Pakistan and of Iran to reach a nuclear bargain–despite North Korea don't count. unprecedented global sanctions crippling

its economy, and looming threats of That fears of a world with 20-30 nuclear military action –would say a lot about the states that President Kennedy warned character of the regime.about half a century ago have not materialized is cold comfort. Whether or Is a nuclear bargain possible with such a not a nuclear Iran would trigger a chain of cantankerous actor?proliferation may be arguable. But I would not bet the mortgage that all of the likely A claimed inventor of chess, Iran has on suspects would refrain from nuclear occasion known when it has been competition. To be fair, Waltz has a point checkmated. Faced with a costly stalemate about the specter of “mad mullahs” and an in its protracted war with Iraq, Tehran “innately irrational” Iranian regime being reached a discomforting capitulation in exaggerated. Tehran's obscene rhetoric not 1988. Whether a deal that precludes Iran withstanding, its leaders give every building a nuclear weapon that both sides indication of seeking regime survival and can live with is achievable may boil down to power and do not appear suicidal. whether Tehran concludes that the pain of

sanctions overrides the regime's need for Waltz disputes the notion that a nuclear the U.S. as an enemy –at least for now. Iran would be an emboldened if not more reckless international actor, arguing that Robert A. Manning is a Senior Fellow at the states acquiring nuclear weapons have Atlantic Council. He has served as Senior been sobered and more cautious. S t r a t e g i s t , D N I N a t i o n a l

Counterproliferation Center until June 2012 He again may have a point–but not for the , on the National Intelligence Council, and reasons he thinks. on the State Department Policy Planning

staff (2005-08).In its quest for regional dominance, Iran's Revolutionary Guards and elite Qods force http : / / thedip lomat .com/2012/07/20/a-

response-to-waltz-why-iran-shouldnt-get-the-have allegedly been mucking around from bomb/


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