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Relevant • Independent • Objective
CERI Electricity Report Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, registered charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].
Also, the provincial government just announced phasing in targets for the sale of ZEVs, with the final target of 100% ZEVs (light-duty cars and trucks) sales by 2040 (Government of BC 2018). In Quebec, potential rebates with the implemented Drive Electric Purchase or Lease Rebate Program can result in up to $8,000 depending on the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) and the electric battery capacity. The Electric Vehicle Incentive Program in Ontario that allowed potential rebates for eligible new EVs up to $14,000 ended on September 10, 2018 (Electric Mobility Canada 2018). Over the last few years, Canada has shown significant growth in sales of light-duty EVs, including battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). As shown in Figure 1, total EV sales have increased roughly 35 times country-wide within six years (2011-2017), from 536 to 18,746 units, whereas EVs market share has improved from negligible 0.03% of new vehicles sales in 2011 to 0.92% in 2017. These results look even more promising for the current year, as EV sales climbed to 21,915 new units sold in the first six months of 2018, significantly exceeding numbers of new EVs sold for the entire last year, with a more than doubled EVs penetration ratio. Figure 1: Total Electric Vehicles Sales (units) and Market Share (percent) in Canada, 2011-2018
Data source: (Klippenstein 2018). Figure by CERI.
A Brief Overview of the Current State of the Electric Vehicle Market in Canada Anna Vypovska Currently, Canada’s transportation sector is the second largest contributor to the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2016, it accounted for 173.4 Mt CO2eq or 25% of total national emissions. Between 1990 and 2016, GHG emissions from Canada's transportation sector increased by 42% (ECCC 2018). Changing the transportation system to reduce GHG emissions through new technology adaptation is being proposed as one of the major mechanisms to achieve climate change mitigation goals. One frequent option of consideration is electrification of the transportation sector. Even with the current electricity grid in Canada, this option alone is estimated to reduce emissions approximately 45% to 98% in comparison with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) (Axsen, Goldberg, and Melton 2016). The federal government is working with provincial and territorial governments, industry and stakeholders to develop a national zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) strategy in 2018 (Transport Canada 2017). Canada has also endorsed an international goal of at least 30% new electric vehicle (EVs) sales by 2030 (IEA 2018). Interest in electric vehicles is growing across the country, and some provinces have implemented policies and have given incentives to both manufacturers and consumers to increase EV sales. In particular, three EV incentive programs currently exist in British Columbia, with potential rebates up to $6,000 for passenger cars and light trucks, and up to $50,000 for specialty-use vehicles (Electric Mobility Canada 2018).
November 2018
CERI Electricity Report
CERI Electricity Report
Page 2
Regarding different EV models existing on the Canadian market, there is a variety of options for consumers to choose from: out of 37 models of EVs sold in Q2 2018 (Schmidt 2018c), there were 13 BEV and 24 PHEV models. The niche of electric passenger cars (28 models) was represented much better than electric light trucks (up to 10,000 lb) which included only nine models (mostly PHEV trucks) sold in Q2 2018. Figure 2 provides detailed information on the number of vehicles sold in Canada in 2011-2018 (Q1+Q2) for the most popular EV models. Total sales (2011-2018) for each of the 15 models included in this chart exceeded 1,000 units per model, with the Chevrolet Volt in a commanding lead (15,926 units sold). Maintaining second overall position, the Nissan Leaf sold 7,927 units during this time range, followed closely by the Tesla Model S (7,285 units). The Tesla Model X (3,587 units sold) and the Chevrolet Bolt EV (3,558 units) hold a tie at the fourth and fifth position, which is especially impressive taking into consideration that the former was introduced to the Canadian market in 2016, and the latter only in 2017. The Tesla Model 3, which is at the seventh position for total sales, was the most sought-after EV in the first half of 2018 (2,785 units have been sold in two months, May-June 2018, since the Model 3 release in Canada). Figure 2: Electric Vehicles Sales (units) in Canada by Model, 2011-2018
Data source: (Klippenstein 2018). Figure by CERI. Notes: For 2018 sales, only data for the first six months are included.
The main characteristics of the most popular light-duty EVs (based on Canadian sales for the first six months of 2018) are summarized in Table 1. It is interesting to note that there was an almost even split between BEVs (nine models, with a total of 9,898 vehicles sold in Q1+Q2
2018) and PHEVs (seven models, totalling 9,559 units). Twelve passenger car models compose 75% of the most popular EVs (15,241 units, or approximately 78% in terms of sales), whereas four light-duty truck models account for 25% of the EV models in Table 1 (representing 4,216 units, or 22% of total sales). Table 1: Key Characteristics of the Most Popular (based on sales in 2018) Electric Vehicles in Canada
Data sources: (Klippenstein 2018; NRCan 2018a), websites of vehicle manufacturers. Table by CERI. Notes: 1. BEV – battery-powered electric vehicle, PHEV – plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; C – passenger car; LT – light-duty truck (up to 10,000 lb). 2. Range is the estimated driving distance (km) on a fully charged battery. For PHEVs, range is presented for operating in electric-only mode. 3. Fuel consumption for the combined rating (55% city driving and 45% highway driving). Electricity consumption (kW/100 km) was converted into gasoline litres equivalent (Le) per 100 km using a conversion factor. One litre of gasoline contains the energy equivalent to 8.9 kWh of electricity (NRCan 2018a). 4. Recharge time is the estimated time to fully recharge the battery at 240 volts (NRCan 2018a). 5. Annual fuel cost estimates are based on the combined rating, a driving distance of 20,000 km and forecast prices of $0.98/L for regular gasoline and $0.13/kWh for electricity. For PHEVs, annual fuel cost reflects a mix of electric-only and gasoline modes of operation (NRCan 2018a).
The upfront purchase price and limited range are often mentioned by consumers as barriers to their decision to switch to EVs. As it can be seen from Table 1, there have been some substantial improvements in driving distance on a fully charged battery, ranging from 179 km (Kia Soul EV) to an impressive 539 km (Tesla Model S 100D) for the nine BEV models. For the seven PHEV models, the average range for operating in electric-only mode (from 27 km for the Volvo XC90 to 85 km for the Chevrolet Volt) is still satisfactory for most daily commutes/trips.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 3
Time to fully recharge the battery at 240 volts varies between 2 to 5 hours for PHEVs, and between 4 to 12 hours for BEVs. Electricity consumption is significantly lower for electric cars (ranging from 15.5 to 21.5 kW/100 km) in comparison to light trucks (24 to 34.4 kW/100 km). However, when converted into gasoline litres equivalent (Le) per 100 km (see footnotes to Table 1), fuel consumption for all the analyzed EVs ranges between 1.7 and 3.9 Le/100 km. To compare, fuel consumption for the eighteen most popular ICEVs (as based on sales in Canada for the first six months of 2018) (Cain 2018; Tai 2018) is in the range of 7.0 and 13.1 L/100 km, according to (NRCan 2018a). It is worth noting that purchase prices for the EVs discussed are getting more reasonable, especially for some models that came to the Canadian market recently, such as the Hyundai Ioniq Electric Plus PHEV (MSRP $31,999) and the Chevrolet Bolt BEV (MSRP $44,400), that were both introduced in 2017. In general, for the majority of the most popular EV models, the MSRPs vary from $31,999 to $50,695, with an exclusion of the more expensive Volvo truck ($74,950) and the three models of Tesla ($64,100 to $136,200). In terms of the provincial breakdown of EV sales in 2016-2018, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec remain the indisputable leaders, with 95% of the overall national sales on this market in 2016 attributed to them (Stevens 2017). To a great extent, the rate of increase of EV adoption in these provinces can be credited to the existing EV incentive programs (see above). Even though the EV rebate program in Ontario expired in September 2018, data for the first six months of 2018 (presented on Figures 3 and 4) reflect the sales with the incentive still in place. However, some other provinces have also shown an impressive increase in EV market growth (percentage) over the last three years. For example, Alberta has maintained fourth place in terms of number of EV units sold in 2016-2018 (Stevens 2017; Schmidt 2018a, 2018b, 2018c), whereas Nova Scotia demonstrated the highest rate of increase in EV sales (333%) during one year (Q2 2018 compared to Q2 2017 data) (Schmidt 2018c). Figures 3 and 4 provide a comparison of electric cars and light trucks market share, as well as BEVs/PHEVs penetration ratio for Alberta as a representative of the Prairie provinces, Nova Scotia as a representative of Atlantic Canada, and Ontario as the leader in 2017-2018 national EV sales.
Figure 3: Electric Cars and Light Trucks Portion (percent) of New Passenger Car and Light Truck Sales (units) in Selected Provinces, 2016-2018
Data sources: (Statistics Canada 2018a, 2018b; Stevens 2016, 2017; Schmidt 2018a, 2018b, 2018c). Figure by CERI.
Figure 4. Electric Vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) Portion (percent) of New Vehicles Sales (units) in Selected Provinces, 2016-2018
Data sources: (Statistics Canada 2018a, 2018b; Stevens 2016, 2017; Schmidt 2018a, 2018b, 2018c). Figure by CERI.
As it is shown in Figure 3, both electric passenger car and electric light truck shares of new vehicle sales have rapidly increased in all three provinces since 2016. The most remarkable growth was observed for Ontario, especially in the segment of new electric cars, where the market share of passenger EVs rose from 0.86% in 2016 to 5.60% in the first six months of 2018. It is worthwhile noting that the ratio of electric cars vs. electric light trucks penetration was the highest for Nova Scotia in 2017 (0.10% vs. 0.01%, correspondingly), and Ontario in Q1+Q2 2018 (5.60% vs. 0.64%).
CERI Electricity Report
Page 4
Figure 4 illustrates the total EVs penetration ratio (percent of new light-duty vehicles sales), as well as a breakdown by EV types (BEVs/PHEVs). While the EV share is the highest in Ontario (2.12% for the first six months of 2018 which is almost equal to the national EVs adoption rate of 2.11% as shown in Figure 1), the split between BEV/PHEV shares is almost even for each province, excluding Nova Scotia in 2018 (0.09% for PHEVs vs. 0.04% for BEVs). Those data reflect a significant shift toward BEVs adoption for the last few years. While the EV market in Canada has grown substantially in the last few years, successful deployment of electric vehicles requires a consideration of several other elements, in addition to vehicles’ availability and affordability. Those factors include local electricity distribution systems and grid stability, implementing a smart grid, availability of public charging infrastructure, consumer awareness and government engagement and co-ordination (Bruce Power et al. 2016; Pollution Probe and The Delphi Group 2018). More details on these issues, as well as other implications of the transportation system transition toward implementation of zero-emission vehicles, will be provided in CERI’s forthcoming study on the economic and environmental impacts of future transportation scenarios for Canadian cities. References Axsen, Jonn, Suzanne Goldberg, and Noel Melton. 2016.
“Canada’s Electric Vehicle Policy Report Card.” Burnaby, BC: Simon Fraser University. https://sfustart.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/canadas-electric-vehicle-policy-report-card.pdf.
Brock, Daniel, and Robin Edger. 2017. “A New Canadian Zero-Emission Vehicle Strategy and the (Re)Emergence of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle.” Fasken Martineau DuMoulin LLP. http://www.fasken.com/en/knowledgehub/2017/11/automotive---20171128.
Bruce Power, Plug’n Drive, Pollution Probe, and the University of Waterloo. 2016. “Accelerating the Deployment of Plug-In Electric Vehicles in Canada and Ontario.” Toronto, ON. http://www.pollutionprobe.org/publications/accelerating-ev-deployment-report/.
Cain, Timothy. 2018. “Canada’s 10 Best-Selling Vehicles so Far in 2018.” Driving.Ca (blog). July 18, 2018. https://driving.ca/ford/f-150/auto-news/news/canadas-10-best-selling-vehicles-so-far-in-2018.
ECCC. 2018. “National Inventory Report 1990-2016: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Part 3.” Annual Report. Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Gatineau, QC: Environment and Climate Change Canada. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/can-2018-nir-13apr18.zip.
Electric Mobility Canada. 2018. “EV Incentives.” Electric Mobility Canada - Mobilité Electrique Canada. 2018. https://emc-mec.ca/ev-101/ev-incentives/.
Government of BC. 2018. “Provincial Government Puts B.C. on Path to 100% Zero-Emission Vehicle Sales by 2040.” Province of British Columbia | BC Gov News. November 20, 2018. https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2018PREM0082-002226.
IEA. 2018. “Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI).” International Energy Agency. 2018. https://www.iea.org/topics/transport/evi/.
Klippenstein, Matthew. 2018. “Canadian EV Sales.” GreenCarReports.com. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dLFJwZVdvNLRpmZqPznlzz6PB9eHMe5b-bai_ddRsNg/edit?usp=embed_facebook.
NRCan. 2018a. “2018 Fuel Consumption Guide.” Natural Resources Canada. http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/tools/fuelratings/2018%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Guide.pdf.
———. 2018b. “Electric Charging and Alternative Fuelling Stations Locator.” Government of Canada | Natural Resources Canada. September 4, 2018. https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/transportation/personal/20487#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC.
Pollution Probe, and The Delphi Group. 2018. “Accelerating the Deployment of Zero Emission Vehicles: Atlantic Canada and the Prairies.” Toronto, ON; Ottawa, ON: Pollution Probe. http://www.pollutionprobe.org/publications/accelerating-deployment-zevs-atlantic-canada-prairies/.
Schmidt, Eric. 2018a. “Electric Vehicle Sales In Canada. Year-End Update 2017.” FleetCarma (blog). February 8, 2018. https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-canada-2017/.
———. 2018b. “Electric Vehicles Sales Update Q1 2018, Canada.” FleetCarma (blog). June 8, 2018. https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicles-sales-update-q1-2018-canada/.
———. 2018c. “Electric Vehicles Sales Update Q2 2018, Canada.” FleetCarma (blog). August 10, 2018. https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicles-sales-update-q2-2018-canada/.
Statistics Canada. 2018a. “New Motor Vehicle Sales, by Type of Vehicle. Table 20-10-0002-01 (Formerly CANSIM 079-0004).” Government of Canada | Statistics Canada. April 16, 2018. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2010000201.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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———. 2018b. “New Motor Vehicle Sales. Table 20-10-0001-01 (Formerly CANSIM 079-0003).” Government of Canada
| Statistics Canada. November 15, 2018. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2010000101.
Stevens, Matthew. 2016. “Electric Vehicle Sales in Canada: 2015 Final Numbers.” FleetCarma (blog). February 9, 2016. https://www.fleetcarma.com/ev-sales-canada-2015/.
———. 2017. “Electric Vehicle Sales in Canada: 2016 Final Update.” FleetCarma (blog). February 8, 2017. https://www.fleetcarma.com/ev-sales-canada-2016-final/.
Tai, Andrew. 2018. “The Best Offers on Canada’s Most Popular Cars.” The Globe and Mail, July 12, 2018. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/news/article-the-best-offers-on-canadas-most-popular-cars/.
Transport Canada. 2017. “Government of Canada to Develop a National Zero-Emissions Vehicle Strategy by 2018.” News Releases. Government of Canada | Transport Canada. May 26, 2017. https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2017/05/government_of_canadatodevelopanationalzero-emissionsvehiclestrat.html.
CERI Electricity Report
Page 6
Major Generation Projects in Canada
Major Transmission Projects in Canada
NameProvince/
Territory
Capacity
(MW)
Expected
In-Service DateStatus
Site C
(Hydroelectric dam)British Columbia 1,100 2024
Construction started with site preparation activities in
summer 2015 and will be completed in 2024 (information
current as of October 2018).
Romaine Hydro Project
(Hydroelectric complex consisting of 4 individual
plants)
Quebec 1,550
The Romaine-2 generating station
was commissioned in 2014, the
Romaine-1 in 2015, and the
Romaine-3 in 2017. The Romaine-4
development will be operational in
2020.
Work on the Romaine-4 development is currently underway.
Lower Churchill Project
(Muskrat Falls and Gull Island hydroelectric) Newfoundland
Muskrat Falls: 824
Gull Island: 2,250
First power from the Muskrat Falls
generating plant is expected to be
delivered in 2019. The proposed
development of Gull Island would
follow no earlier than three years
after the sanction of Muskrat Falls.
Construction started on the Muskrat Falls Project in 2012,
and by the end of 2017, construction completion has
reached 89%.
Keeyask Project
(Hydroelectric power plant)Manitoba 695 August 2021
Construction started in July 2014 and is ongoing. The
schedule outlook for a first unit in-service was improved to
fall of 2020 which is ahead of the August 2021 control
schedule (information current as of July 2018).
Bruce, Darlington and Pickering
(Nuclear Power Refurbishment) Ontario
Bruce: 6,300
Darlington: 3,500
Pickering: 3,100
The Pickering station operation
was extended to 2024 (all six units
would operate until 2022; two
would then shut down, and four
would run to 2024).
The mid-life refurbishment of the
Darlington units will take 10 years
(information current as of
November 2016)
The mid-life refurbishment at the Darlington Nuclear Station
is underway since October 2016. Darlington’s Unit 2
refurbishment is progressing and remains on schedule to be
completed in early 2020. Unit 3 refurbishment is scheduled
to start by February 2020 (information current as of October
2018).
The first major component replacement project for the Bruce
Life Extension Program will commence in 2020.
In August 2018, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
renewed the operating licence for Pickering Nuclear.
Brazeau Hydro Expansion & adition of pumped
hydro storage Alberta 900
Brazeau Energy Storage project is
targeting 2025/2026 operating
date
Currently in the preliminary feasibility studies stage. TranAlta
is targeting 2021 to begin construction on the Brazeau
pumped storage project.
Milner Gas Expansion Project Alberta 520 Late 2019
The project is proceeding with the first stage of development
which will result in completion of a 208 MW simple cycle gas
turbine facility. The commercial operation date of the first
stage is anticipated to occur in late 2019.
NameProvince/
Territory
Capacity
(kV)
Expected
In-Service DateStatus
Bipole III Transmission Reliability Project
(HVDC line)Manitoba 500 2018
Bipole III Transmission Line project was completed in July
2018
Manitoba – Minnesota Transmission Project
(AC line)Manitoba 500 2020, pending regulatory approvals
The NEB hearing concluded on June 22, 2018. The NEB
hearing concluded on June 22, 2018. The National Energy
Board has completed and released their Reasons for Decision
recommending to the Governor in Council that a certificate
should be issued for the Project.
The Clean Environment Commission Hearing for the
provincial process concluded in June 2017 and Manitoba
Hydro is awaiting a licensing decision.
Labrador - Island Transmission Link
(HVDC line)Newfoundland and Labrador 450 2020
Construction of the 1,100km Labrador-Island Link was
completed in late 2017, and formally energized in June 2018.
The transmission site will supply full power to the island's
residents by 2020.
Maritime Link Transmission
(HVDC and HVAC line)
Newfoundland and Labrador,
Nova Scotia 200 to 250 January 2018
First power was sent through the Maritime Link in December
2017. It went into service on January 15th, 2018.
Fort McMurray West Transmission Project (AC line) Alberta 500 June 2019
Construction began in March 2017. Construction schedule
end has changed from December 2019 to July 2019.
Chamouchouane–Bout-de-l’Île Transmission Line Quebec 735 Late 2018
According to HydroQuebec, the project is on schedule. Land
clearing is finished, and construction of the line has begun. It
is anticipated to be completed by November 2018.
Romaine Complex Transmission Line Quebec
500 km lines- 315 and
735 kV
Overall Romaine Hydroelectric Complex
project completion is scheduled for 2020
Construction began in summer 2011 and is nearly complete
now. The transmission lines and Romaine-1, Romaine-2 and
Romaine-3 substations have been commissioned. Some work
remains to be completed at Romaine-4 substation, which will
be commissioned at the same time as the generating station
of the same name.
Relevant • Independent • Objective
Page 7
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kly
pe
ak
Alb
ert
a W
ee
kly
De
ma
nd
Oct
20
17
-S
ep
20
18
13
00
0
15
00
0
17
00
0
19
00
0
21
00
0
23
00
0
25
00
0 Oct
/17
No
v/1
7D
ec/
17
Jan
/18
Fe
b/1
8M
ar/
18
Ap
r/1
8M
ay
/18
Jun
/18
Jul/
18
Au
g/1
8S
ep
/18
Oct
/18
MW
We
ek
ly a
ve
rag
e W
ee
kly
pe
ak
On
tari
o W
ee
kly
De
ma
nd
Oct
20
17
-S
ep
20
18