November 2007 - VUB

School of Economics and Commercial Law GÖTEBORG UNIVERSITY Department of Economics Environmental Economics Unit

Environmental Policy Brief for the Lake Victoria Basin1 November 2007

“Regrettably, Lake Victoria is today seriously threatened due to receding water levels, soil and waste pollution, over-fishing, and a growing decline in the health of its ecosystems. As a result, the livelihoods and well-being of over 30 million people who live around its basin are at risk. It is imperative that we act urgently and decisively to halt further decline of the lake and the surrounding environment.”

Mwai Kibaki, President of Kenya at the inauguration of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission in Kisumu, June 11th, 2007

1 This Policy Brief was written at the request of Sida's Lake Victoria Initiative, Nariobi (att: David Nilsson) by Olof Drakenberg at the Environmental Economics Unit (EEU), Department of Economics, Göteborg University supported by Wilfred Nyangena of EfD Kippra (Kenya) and Razack Lokina, EfD Tanzania and Innocent Kabenga, EEU Kigali. Input has also been provided by Sida’s Helpdesk for Environmental Assessment and SwedBio. The brief has been prepared as part of Sida-EEU’s institutional collaboration on environmental economics and strategic environmental assessment. Further comments can be directed to [email protected]. The policy brief is mainly a desk study complemented by interviews in Nairobi and Kisumu in June 2007. Sida does not necessarily share the views expressed in this material. Responsibility for its contents rests entirely with the authors.

Environmental Policy Brief – Lake Victoria November 2007

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Summary The Environmental policy brief provides input to the Swedish regional cooperation strategy for Sub Saharan Africa and particularly the Lake Victoria basin. The densely populated basin is richly endowed with natural resources. National development plans in the five basin countries Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda all underline the importance of growth in natural resources based sectors like agriculture and tourism and to a varying degree mining and fisheries. Yet current trends indicate that ongoing resource degradation (land, water, fisheries) will impede poverty reduction, growth and consequently the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The environmental situation has changed since the former Swedish cooperation strategy 2004-2007 was adopted. The most important differences are; reduced catches of Nile perch, the reappearance of the water hyacinth, lower water levels in the lake and the increasing awareness on the need for climate change risk reduction. The energy crisis and the social and economic risks associated with overfishing of Nile perch provide strong political incentives for national governments to move regional collaboration higher up on the agenda. Other important changes include the enlargement of the East African Community with Rwanda and Burundi and the increased capacity of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission. Stronger regional cooperation provides an opportunity to reduce costs for natural resources governance, to improve knowledge transfer and the application of new policy instruments. Moreover, it creates a political momentum that could facilitate implementation of legislation at the national and local level. A Strategic Action Plan for the Lake Victoria Basin was adopted by the East African Community in April 2007. It is an important point of departure for improved natural resources management and development and includes elements such as investments in reforestation, implementation of policies for fisheries and reduction of point source pollution. However, many components in the action plan are more focused on addressing the symptoms (reforestation) than the underlying causes of unsustainable management of natural resources and degraded ecosystems (lack of alternative livelihoods and weak law enforcement). Therefore investments in health, education, infrastructure and broader institutional strengthening are necessary to complement the Strategic Action Plan in order to diversify the economy as well as to reduce poverty and the current pressure on ecosystems. Recommendations for regional Swedish development cooperation within the Lake Victoria Basin include;

- Strengthen the capacity of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission - High level conference to follow up on the Strategic Action Plan to improve accountability

and transparency - Seek synergies between the Strategic Action Plan and bilateral and regional Swedish

support - Promote use of Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) in EAC policy development to

improve the quality of policies and increase capacity


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Table of Contents Summary ........................................................................................................................2 Table of Contents ...........................................................................................................3 1. Introduction................................................................................................................4 2. Key transboundary environmental issues and causes ................................................4

2.1 Land, wetland and forest degradation and the poor .............................................4 2.2 Fisheries, habitats, biodiversity and the poor.......................................................6 2.3 Water quality, pollution and the poor ..................................................................8 2.4 Water quantity, water balance, climate change and the poor ..............................9

3. Poverty and the environment ...................................................................................11 3.1 Population overview ..........................................................................................11 3.2 Health and Environment ....................................................................................12 3.3 Vulnerability and climate change in Lake Victoria ...........................................13 3.4 Conflict and Environment in Lake Victoria.......................................................13

4. Economic growth, natural resources and environment............................................14 4.1 GDP growth and employment ...........................................................................14 4.2 Natural resources savings rate and investments.................................................14 4.3 Market and policy failures .................................................................................15

5. Regional natural resources governance ...................................................................16 5.1 The East African Community ............................................................................16 5.2 The EAC and management of natural resources in the Lake Victoria Basin ....17 5.3 Lake Victoria Basin Commission ......................................................................17

6 Swedish development cooperation in the region ......................................................18 7 Conclusions and issues for Sida to consider .............................................................19

7.1 General conclusions ...........................................................................................19 7.2 Proposals for regional development cooperation...............................................20 7.2.1 Seek synergies between the Strategic Action Plan and bilateral and regional Swedish support ...................................................................................................20 7.2.2 Strengthen the Lake Victoria Basin Commission.......................................21 7.2.3 Increase transparency, accountability and enhance information flow ........21 7.2.4 Promote the use of strategic environmental assessments in EAC policy development.........................................................................................................22 7.2.5 Build regional capacity on climate change and disaster risk reduction ......22 7.2.6 Support regional institutions and networks.................................................22

References....................................................................................................................26 Annex I Major development projects, institutions and donors in the region.......30 Annex II Brief information on Atmospheric deposition......................................33 Annex III Adjusted Net Savings ..........................................................................35


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1. Introduction The purpose of the Environmental policy brief is to provide input to the Swedish regional cooperation strategy for Sub Saharan Africa and particularly the Lake Victoria basin. Focus is on environment, climate change and natural resources and how the management of these resources impact on poverty and poverty reduction. The findings draw heavily on the recent reports made on behalf of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission; Strategic Action plan for the Lake Victoria Basin (which was adopted in April 2007) and the Regional Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Lake Victoria Basin (RTDA). Policy briefs for the five countries have also fed into the overall Environmental policy brief for the Basin. They are presented in a separate Annex.

2. Key transboundary environmental issues and causes The Lake Victoria Basin is richly endowed with natural resources including fertile lands, water, fisheries, minerals, wildlife and forests. The economy in the basin is largely based on natural resources including agriculture, fisheries, mining and ecosystem services. Lake Victoria is thus a source of livelihoods, food, energy, drinking and irrigation water and transport for the people in the basin. The Strategic Action Plan identified four key environmental issues plus governance policies and institutional weakness to be of greatest importance. The environmental issues are i) land, wetland and forest degradation, ii) fisheries, habitats and biodiversity, iii) pollution2, iv) water balance, water use management and climate change.

2.1 Land, wetland and forest degradation and the poor

Overview

Land use and land degradation is ranked as the most pressing transboundary environmental issue. Land degradation is a basin wide problem referring to decline in the overall quality of soil or vegetation condition commonly caused by human activities. The poor are impacted in a number of ways including reduced agricultural yields, higher energy prices, loss of future incomes and reduced access to lands. Soil erosion leads to land degradation. The economic costs of soil erosion in terms of reduced agricultural yields is significant and has been estimated to 1,9 % of GDP in Rwanda, 3,8 % of GDP in Kenya and between 4-12 % of GNI in Uganda.3 Although these figures are associated with some degree of uncertainty, they indicate the magnitude of the costs of land degradation. Conversion of forests and wetlands into agricultural or urban lands affects water flow in rivers4 and increase siltation5 thus affecting hydro power generation and creating power outages and push up

2 Pollution, eutrophication and atmospheric deposition on the lake from domestic and industrial activities (EAC Strategic Action Plan, 2007) 3 Republic of Rwanda, Economic Analysis of natural resources management in Rwanda, 2006, Kenya- Cohen et al, Estimating the environmental cost of soil erosion at multiple scales in Kenya using emergy synthesis, Uganda, Yaron et al, 2004. 4 Deforestation’s impacts on river flow vary considerably depending on the locality and how the land is subsequently used, increased use of irrigation etc. It often increases dry season flow but in some cases it could also reduce them. World Bank, 2007. 5 The problem with siltation is illustrated with soil particles washed away by rain or wind and that by gravity ends up at the bottom of an irrigation or hydro power dam thus decreasing storage capacity.


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energy prices. Conversion of wetlands typically reduces water flow in the dry season as the ecosystems capacity to retain water is degraded. Wetlands around the lake and its river systems are often a valuable source of food, fodder and other incomes to the poor, including the landless. These lost incomes are not always compensated for when wetlands are converted which increases vulnerability and can give rise to conflicts. Trends

Intensive land use has transformed most of the natural landscape in the Basin. Approximately 46% of the lake basin is severely eroded.6 In Tanzania the rate of expansion of agricultural land is about 2 %/year7 and in Rwanda agricultural land has expanded with 7% from 2000-2005. Wetlands such as the Yala swamp in Kenya, Kabale (Uganda) and Rugetzi (Rwanda) have increasingly been converted to agricultural land. Deforestation is particularly rampant in Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda where forest cover has decreased by 47, 27 and 26 % respectively during the last decades.8 In Kenya, with little remaining forests cover, deforested areas in recent years include parts of Mau forest and areas around Trans Nzoia district. Deforestation rates are also particularly high in the mining districts of northern Tanzania. The booming market for biofuels has recently added pressure on forests for conversion. In the Nyando river Basin (Kenya) soil erosion equals 40 tonnes per hectare and year and in Rwanda losses average 10 tonnes per hectare9. In some areas, degradation has reached a point where up to 30% of farm land is abandoned for agricultural use10. Programmes to halt land degradation and increase forest cover have been introduced to counter the challenges.

Impact on ecosystems

Deforestation typically contributes to increased soil erosion, reduced biodiversity and modified river flows. Soil erosion leads to losses of organic matter and nutrients and reduced agricultural productivity.11 Furthermore it fertilizes downstream water bodies and eventually Lake Victoria thereby contributing to algea blooms and the spread of the water hyacinth. Forests impacts on water retention, water flow and flood protection is complex and situation specific. In a study from the North West of Mount Kenya, conversion of natural forest to small scale agriculture lowered infiltration of the soils causing an increased runoff and flash floods.12 Certain deciduous tree species can mitigate dry season water shortage whereas plantation of fast growing trees typically exacerbates water shortages.13 When wetlands are converted to agricultural lands many of their water regulating and filtering services are lost as well as biodiversity and the capacity to reduce nutrient loading of the lake.

Causes

On average 90 % of the population in the riparian countries depend on agriculture. Farm size is often less than 1 hectare. Population pressure, weak governance and lack of alternative livelihoods push the poor men and women to cultivate marginal lands including river banks, wetlands, forests and steep slopes. Wetland conversion is partly caused by large private companies (for instance in the Yala swamp, Kenya). Biomass constitutes more than 90% of the energy needs in the Basin which adds to the problem of deforestation. Forest cover is also reduced due to illegal logging. Insecure property rights and poor access to credit constrain investments in soil and water conservation. To

6 UNEP, 2005 7 The figure refers to the situation in the whole country. United Republic of Tanzania, 2006. 8 Burundi and Uganda, FAO figures 1995-2005, Rwanda 1993-2003 (GoR and Donor Group, 2006 Joint Sector Review). It should be noted that in Rwanda there are promising indications of increased tree planting activities. In 2005/2006 the number of villages involved in reforestation was 60% compared with 40% five years earlier. (EDPRS July 2007) 9 Beachler, 1999 10 ICRAF, 2007 11 In Rwanda land productivity on much eroded farms is estimated to be about 20 % lower than on farms with little erosion. (Clay et al, 2001). 12 Mungai et al, 2004 13 ICRAF, 2007


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varying extent cultural or legal barriers prohibit women from land ownership thus reducing their willingness to invest and thus their ability to increase output. Use of unsustainable farming methods is also explained by weak or inaccessible knowledge. Lower female participation in education put women at disadvantage in acquiring knowledge. In some parts, notably in Tanzania increasing livestock population has contributed to over grazing and land degradation. Regional responses

The top three interventions in the Strategic Action Plan, adopted by the EAC in April 2007 are • Invest in re-forestation and afforestation programmes (Nat14) • Invest in rehabilitation and restoration of degraded wetlands and rangelands (Nat) • Mechanisms that promote efficient use and investment in farming methods and practices

that reduce pressure on forests and wetlands (Nat) Key regional interventions listed were; 1) enhancing community awareness and involvement in management of natural resources and 2) strengthen, harmonize and coordinate and implement land allocation systems. Policy coherence

In general, all countries acknowledge the challenges of land degradation, loss of forest cover and need for improved property rights in their key planning documents (PRS, Vision documents etc). At the same time substantial increases in agricultural productivity are envisioned without any clear and significant evidence of increased investments in natural capital (soil conservation, protection of wetlands, fish stock rehabilitation etc). Notably, Rwanda has a target to rapidly reduce the dependence on agriculture for employment partly to reduce pressure on the land. Population control measures and generating growth in non-agricultural sectors are important and feature in key planning documents.

2.2 Fisheries, habitats, biodiversity and the poor

Overview

Fisheries are a major source of employment, foreign currency and support livelihoods for 3 million people directly involved in the industry.15 Overfishing is a serious risk for the people in the basin. Consequences for the poor include reduced intake of animal protein, declining yields per effort and risk of lost employment opportunities. In Uganda fish protein consumption has diminished by 75% per capita during the last decade due to the rising cost of fish16.

Trends

Introduction of new fish species has dramatically reduced biodiversity in the lake while at the same time contributed to increased export earnings and employment. The annual fish catch in 2005 was 804 000 tonnes, an increase by 30 % since 2000 and 50% since 1980. Fishing effort has increased substantially during 2000-2005; number of fishermen is up 52 %, fishing crafts up 63% and motorization up 211%. Uganda has almost doubled its catch since 2000 while Kenya’s catch has been reduced by one third. The state of fish stocks is debated. According to the Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization fish stocks in inland water where non-motorized fishers operate has gone down but total fish stock is estimated

14 Proposed interventions were categorised as either national or regional. Nat = National, Reg= Regional. A longer list of prioritized interventions is included in the Stratgic Action Plan. See Annex III. 15 EAC, 2006b 16 Uganda Fisheries Resource Research Institute quoted in National Geographic March 13, 2007. FAO statistics show that fish protein share of total protein consumption in the five countries on average was reduced by 30% between 1992-2002.


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to be stable. Others foresee a decline in future fisheries.17 What is undebated is that the catch per effort has gone down and that the average size of Nile perch is declining. Furthermore the total catch of Nile perch has decreased somewhat and the species account for a dramatically lower share of fish catch (down from 42% in 2000 to 29% in 2005). During this period Dagaa has increased its share from 40 to 48 %.18 Post harvest losses are estimated to between 20-40% depending on the season.19 Lower lake levels led to increased post harvest losses. Unreported catch, partly illegal, has been estimated to amount to as much as 20% of total catch.20 Aquaculture remains a small but growing sector. Research on Lake Tangayika suggests that climate change could have larger impacts on fisheries than overfishing.21 Impact on ecosystems

The introduction of foreign species like the Nile Perch is estimated to have reduced the number of fish species by 200. Rapidly increasing fishing effort in recent years may have reduced biodiversity further. Reduced biodiversity increase the vulnerability of the ecosystem. There are also indications that overfishing of Nile perch has been beneficial for biodiversity in the lake.22 Causes

The main causes of increased fishing effort are the high demand for fish exports, large fish processing capacity and lack of alternative livelihoods in combination with unrestricted access to the lake (lack of fish quotas) and population growth. Overfishing is mainly due to increased fishing effort and to a smaller degree to improved equipment. According to Ugandan fishermen the major contributing factors are use of wrong fishing gears and methods and too many boats/too much fishing23. Poor governance and low compliance with regulations, weak enforcement, and corruption further aggravates the risks for overexploitation24. Fish habitats are also affected by water quality, contamination of chemicals and sedimentation, (see more under Pollution). Responses

The top three interventions in the Strategic Action Plan, adopted by the EAC in April 2007 are • Capacity building of communities on sustainable fisheries management (Nat) • Strengthen, harmonize and implement policies and legislation including quota for fishing

and fish processing (Reg) • Provide credits to support alternative livelihoods (Nat)

Other key regional interventions included; 1) stock restoration with fish from satellite lakes and 2) restrictions on expansion of fish processing plants. Policy coherence

Both EAC and national plans (PRS etc) raise issues about pollution, need for harmonization and inadequate resources to monitor fishing efforts as constraints to growth in the sector. Decentralized local management via Beach Management Units are seen as an important element to arrive at sustainable outtakes of fish. Notably Uganda projects significant growth of revenue generation in

17 See for instance Cowx et al, 2005, referenced in Kolding et al, 2005 18 Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization, 2006. The market outlook for Nile perch is considered bleak due to declining catch and stong competition. The FAO recommends strong control of fishing, fishing quotas and minimum sizes of Nile perch as well as diversification into other species, such as tilapia farming. (FAO Globfish Nile perch Market Report July 2007) 19 Uganda Ministry of Water and Environment, 2006 20 Cowx et al., 2003 21 O’Reilly et al, 2003, The study which is referenced in the IPCC 2007 finds that fish yields in Lake Tanganyika may be reduced by 30% due to rising temperatures and changed wind patterns. 22 The haplochromis species, which was once thought to be extinct, has also resurfaced in the Lake. This has been attributed to the decline in the population of Nile perch. (FAO Globfish Nile perch Market Report Aug 2006) 23 Ikwaput, 2005 quoted in Ugandan TDA, 2006 24 Odada et al, 2004


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the fisheries sector. It is unclear if planned efforts on increased monitoring and harmonized legislation will be sufficient to ensure sustainable management of the resource.

2.3 Water quality, pollution and the poor Overview

Pollution is a major problem in the Lake Victoria Basin involving a great number of different sources and actors. The lake is used for drinking water by both urban citizens and fishing communities around the lake. Water pollution impacts directly on human health and reduce the opportunity to engage in economic activities or education. Indirectly, polluted water also impacts on livelihoods by degrading soils for productive use, affecting livestock and breeding grounds for fish and by increasing the burden of the poor by having to collect firewood to boil water for drinking. Nutrient loading is also a cause of the invasion of the water hyacinth. Impacts of the water hyacinth on the poor include increased difficulty in collecting water, loss in fishing time, reduced functioning of urban water supply systems etc. The most important pollution issues are; microbiological (fertilizing and health impacts), eutrophication (fertilizing), chemical (contamination) and suspended solids (impacting on hydro power, irrigation dams, river flow etc).25 Pollution is strongly linked to land use and land degradation.

Trends

The flow of nutrients to the lake has accelerated. In Nyando river (Kenya) sedimentation load has increased by 3-4 times in 100 years.26 Since the 1960’s algae biomass concentration has increased 5 times and lack of oxygen has moved from a marginal problem to affect nearly half of the lake today.27 About 50-80 % of nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) enter the lake via atmospheric deposition28; either with rainfall (wet deposition) or winds (dry deposition). The second most important source of nutrient load is rivers whereas point sources (industry, municipalities) represent a small fraction of the total load. Areas infected by the water hyacinth had been reduced to non nuisance levels in 2005 but reappeared in late 2006. Chemical effluents to rivers and the lake are increasing.29


Excessive nutrient load leads to eutrophication, causing a massive growth in algaes, water hyacinth and similar species. This results in oxygen depletion that affects fish breeding and conditions for other aquatic species and contributes to reduced biodiversity in the lake. Chemical effluents degrade soils and water and the capacity of wetlands to provide water purification services. Causes

Land degradation and burning of biomass are the main contributing factors to nutrient pollution and sedimentation of the lake. Due to the burning of biomass, agricultural residues and firewood nutrients are emitted in the air and deposited on the lake. Soils are washed away and via rivers transported to the lake or blown away. As explained under Land degradation, population pressure and lack of alternative livelihoods are forcing people to cultivate marginal land and intense cultivation of lands. Erosion is significantly higher during wet years. Increased frequency of extreme weather, including heavy rains due to climate change will cause more erosion.

25 Odada et al, 2004 26 Ibid 27 Ibid. If the amount of oxygen in the water is reduced to zero the area cannot sustain biological activity (breeding grounds for fish etc). 28 Annex II gives a quick introduction on atmospheric deposition, causes and impacts. 29 Odada et al, 2004


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Poor sanitation is the main contributing factor to micro-biological pollution that strongly impact on human health. Municipal treatment plans are in very poor standards and access to sanitation is very low. Occurrence of flooding further exacerbates the problem with poor sanitation. Chemical pollution of the lake is primarily caused by lack of industrial wastewater treatment facilities, use of agro-chemicals and leakage from dumps and mining operations. The use of pesticides and fertilizers is growing among the region’s large scale farms30. Levels of pesticides and heavy metals in water systems are low but increasing (RTDA). Unclear property rights and weak institutions are impediments to investments in soil and water conservation and pollution control. Responses

The top three interventions in the Strategic Action Plan, adopted by the EAC in April 2007 are • Reduce point source pollution by strengthening industrial and municipal waste management

(Nat) • Develop and implement spatial/urban planning with establishment of waste disposal

infrastructure and clean technologies (Nat) • Strengthen measures and control of the aquatic weeds (Reg)

Other key regional interventions selected include; Harmonize and enforce regulation on invasive species. The measures proposed under Land use and Land degradation have a strong, complementary impact on pollution. Under LVEMP II a substantial amount of research is planned to study and quantify atmospheric deposition, the single most important contributor of nutrient load in Lake Victoria. Policy coherence

In line with the Millennium Development Goals all countries have plans to increase access to improved water and sanitation. Projected increase in agricultural output, often including increased sales of cash crops will raise the use of fertilizer and pesticides. It is unclear if sufficient measures are put in place to ensure good management of agro-chemicals and control of industrial effluents. Increased mining in the region, particularly in Tanzania could raise the contamination of heavy metals from low levels. Strengthened property rights are planned but implementation is uncertain.

2.4 Water quantity, water balance, climate change and the poor

Overview

Water is mainly used for agriculture, drinking water, hydro power and industry. The White Nile has its source at Jinja, Uganda and the basin is part of the bigger Nile Basin. Water quantity is therefore a critical issue impacting all Nile Basin states downstream. International agreements make significant increase in irrigation politically sensitive. Agriculture is mostly rainfed. Although there are reports of over abstraction of ground water in some places, freshwater shortage has not been a major issue in the Basin. Scarcity has primarily been caused by pollution and not lack of water.31 Rainfall on the lake accounts for 82% of the inflow to Lake Victoria. The remaining 18% is discharged through the rivers of which Kagera accounts for one third. The outflow is dominated by evaporation (76%) whereas the outlet to the White Nile at Jinja accounts for 24 %. Lake levels have followed a general downward trend since 1964 but with significant variations (See figure 5). Due to conversion of wetlands and forests and increased irrigation, reduced river flow in some basins could cause serious water shortages in the Mara River, Tanzania32. River discharge is also affected by

30 Odada et al, 2004 31 Ibid 32 Personal communication Chin Ong (ICRAF) and Mussolini Kithome (NELSAP-Mara)


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different kinds of crops/species grown in the catchment. Eucalyptus and cut flowers for instance are relatively water intense. Reduced water availability impacts negatively on agricultural yields and food security. The health of the poor often deteriorates with reduced access to clean water. Abstraction of water for irrigation purposes could create tension between downstream and upstream populations. Figure 1: Comparison of water level and outflow of Lake Victoria (from 1950-2005)

Source: LVEMP Water Quality Synthesis Report, 2005

Trends

Demand for water rise with a growing population. Climate change can have a large impact on precipitation and water levels in the Basin. Current trends in the Basin shows slightly increased rainfall over the past 100 years and somewhat increased rainfall intensity. Projections indicate that the water level of Lake Victoria would initially fall as increases in evaporation offset changes in precipitation, but subsequently rise as the effects of increased precipitation are overtaking the effects of higher evaporation.33 In such a scenario the potential for irrigation and hydro power improves. More extreme wheather events such as droughts and floods are expected. Impacts of more extreme weather are most severely felt by poor men and women and affect the vulnerability of both rural and urban poor. Short term effects may include loss of housing, crops and health and long term effects include lower agricultural yields caused by increased soil erosion due to heavier rains. Although it must be underlined that, there are a number of uncertainties in projections on future climate impacts (the models themselves, global CO2 emissions etc) climate change risks having significant impacts on the region. Along with the expected increase of population, irrigation and reliance on hydro power it is likely that present problems with low water levels will remain.34 There is growing awareness of the need for integrated water resources management and stronger water institutions on a national level. It can generally be said that both policy development and implementation are improving.

33 Tate et al, 2004, Water balance of Lake Victoria: update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100. According to IPCC, 2007, 18 out of 21 projections indicate higher precipitation in East Africa. However the IPCC also state that there is a higher degree of certainty regarding temperature rises than for projected changes in precipitation in Africa. In an analysis of vulnerability and climate change, (ILRI, 2006) parts of East African highlands where farmers depend on mixed rainfed and perennial systems are identified as being among the most vulnerable to climate change risking to loose more than 20% of the length of the growing period thus facing reduced food security. 34 Netherlands Commission for environmental assessment, 2007


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Reduced water levels affect the breeding grounds for fish and biodiversity. Heavier rainfalls increase the risk for flooding, landslides and land degradation thus leading to further nutrient loading both in terms of erosion of soils and inadequate capacity to take care of household sewage. Causes

The experienced lower water levels in the lake are primarily explained by reduced rainfall but are also impacted by a mix of land degradation, deforestation, irrigation, release of water for hydro power generation at Jinja and conversion of wetlands. Inadequate pricing mechanisms and weak institutional framework lead to non optimal allocation of water resources. As explained under land degradation, poverty, weak governance and insecure property rights contribute to illegal logging, deforestation and encroachment into wetlands. Responses

The top three interventions in the Strategic Action Plan, adopted by the EAC in April 2007 are35 • Undertake water and soil conservation measures (Nat) • Invest in education, training, public awareness and research programs for disaster

management (vulnerability to surface and ground water) (Reg) • Invest in funds for disaster management and prevention (Reg)

Other selected key regional interventions include; 1) develop and implement clear guidelines and rules for water abstraction (surface and groundwater) for main users of the lake and lake basin water and 2) institutionalize risk reduction measures and 3) develop an effective information and communication system for drought and flood preparedness. Policy coherence

Both hydro power and irrigation are projected to increase according to the EAC and the five country’s key planning documents. There could be a growing conflict of interests between different users (countries/individuals) and uses of water (sectors). Several countries have plans to protect remaining forests and wetlands.

3. Poverty and the environment

3.1 Population overview

About 35 million people live in the Lake Victoria basin. Poverty rates are highest in Western Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda (65-60% below 1 USD/day) and significantly lower in Uganda and Tanzania (32-36 %). The population is growing at about 3% per year and the population density in the Basin is higher than the national average. Since 1960 population growth within 100 km from the shore has grown from 60 to 246 inhabitants per km2 which is faster than the continental average for Africa that grew from 9 to 38 inhabitants per km2.36

35 A longer list of prioritized interventions is included in Annex III. 36 UNEP, 2006


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Figure 2 Population Density around Lake Victoria 1960 and 2005

Source: UNEP, Africas Lakes, Atlas of our changing environment, 2006 Land is increasingly scarce and holdings are small, 75% of the population subsist on one hectare or less. Ecological conditions impact on the poor’s ability to earn an income, meet material needs and maintain health and basic education.

3.2 Health and Environment

Polluted water and air constitute a major constraint on economic activity, employability, education and poverty reduction. In Uganda 35% of the burden of disease was attributable to malaria, diarrheal diseases and respiratory infections where the two latter are largely caused by polluted water or air37 and in the East African Community more than 120 000 die in diseases attributable to pollution (about 60 % due to water pollution/poor hygiene, 40 % due to indoor air pollution and 1 % outdoor air pollution).38. Urban water supply/sewage is in bad standards generally. In the lower parts of the basin they are considered to be in extremely poor condition. In the Kenyan part of the basin, infant mortality is significantly higher than the national average and the incidence of malaria is among the highest in the world (RTDA 2006). In certain highlands in Uganda, the frequency of malaria has increased between 30-135 % due to a warmer climate.39 Climate change is also projected to increase drought and flooding due to erratic rainfall. Flooding in combination with poor sanitation cause outbreaks of diarrheal diseases and expose drinking water to pollution from agricultural runoff. The majority of the poor use firewood/charcoal/dung for cooking. Indoor air pollution is the leading cause of respiratory infections mostly affecting women and children. Increased exports of fish have raised the market price. The share of fish protein of total protein intake fell by 30% between 1992-2002.40 HIV/Aids prevalence is high throughout the region. Fishing communities have been reported to contribute to the transmission of the disease. The fierce competition on fishery resources following reduced catch per fishing effort has aggravated the situation where sex often is a condition for access

37 Uganda National Health Policy, 2000-2001 38 WHO, Estimates for Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Kenya, 2002. Figures from Tanzania are not included. 39 Uganda National Adaptation Plan of Action (referred to in a news article in 06/04/07. The extent to which the warmer climate is responsible for increased incidence of malaria is debated. Yet, the IPCC (2007) is highly confident that human health could be negatively impacted by climate change and climate variability. Deforestation and wetland conversion in Western Kenya and a higher ambient temperature has created more favourable conditions for mosquitos (Munga et al, 2006) 40 FAO, For the five countries the share fell on average by 30% of protein intake during the period. In Burundi and Uganda the share fell by about 50%.


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to fish. High prevalence of HIV/Aids typically reduces farmers’ capacity to maintain agricultural productivity as well as to invest in soil and water conservation causing further land degradation.

3.3 Vulnerability and climate change in Lake Victoria

As shown in previous sections, climate change adds to existing stresses (land degradation, food security, diseases and natural disasters) in the region rather than introducing something new. Projections indicate higher temperatures and increased rainfall and frequency of natural disasters such as flood and drought.41 Climate change affects biodiversity and the possibility for an ecosystem to deliver services like food, climate regulation, flood protection etc. for human well-being. Well managed ecosystems reduce vulnerability and are useful for both mitigation (world wide deforestation account for 20% of emitted greenhouse gas emission) and adaptation to climate change. Land scarcity and population pressure is forcing the poor to cultivate and inhabit marginal lands, floodplains, slopes etc thus increasing their vulnerability to floods. Urban poor, living in slums like Nyalenda, Kisumu, in Western Kenya with inadequate and poorly managed drainage channels are particularly exposed to floods and diseases.42 The great dependence of rain fed agriculture makes the rural poor specifically vulnerable to drought. Of the five countries, Kenya has suffered the most but all countries have experienced increased frequency of natural disasters in recent decades.43 In Kenya, La Nina 1998-2000 affected 23 million Kenyans and caused losses equivalent to 16 % of GDP (mainly hydro power, crop and livestock loss and health). The floods in 1997-98 affected 900 000 and caused losses equivalent to about 11% of GDP. According to IPCC main adaptation strategies to climate change are diversification of livelihood activities, institutions rules and governance (early warning systems), adjustment in farming operations and migration.44 In Burundi the key prioritized interventions to adapt to climate change are; improved seasonal early warning climate forecast; avoid deforestation and reforest stripped areas; and popularize rainwater harvest techniques for agricultural and domestic use.45 Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda have also recently (2007) presented National Adaptation Plans of Action.

3.4 Conflict and Environment in Lake Victoria

Environmental scarcity is perceived to have contributed to the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.46 Recent examples of resource use conflicts in the region have been observed amongst Kenyan/Ugandan/ Tanzanian fishers on Lake Victoria; conflicts for grazing grounds among Ugandan and Tanzanian cattle keepers in the cattle corridor between Ankole/Rakai in Uganda and Minziro/Kagera area of Tanzania; conflict in wetland fish and forest resources of Minziro/Sango Bay area. Similar conflicts are common among communities in all the riparian countries. Land use conflicts are particularly severe in Rwanda, Burundi and along the Kenyan Basin of the Lake.47

41 IPCC, 2007 42 UN Habitat, 2005 43 Emergency events database http://www.em-dat.net 44 IPCC, 2007, 45Government of Burundi, 2007, National Adaptation Plan of Action 46 Homer-Dixon, 1996, Ohlsson, 2001 47 EAC, 2006


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4. Economic growth, natural resources and environment

4.1 GDP growth and employment

Ecosystem services include food, fuel and water, pollination, erosion control etc. The monetary and non-monetary value of these services and their importance for human well-being is significant. All economies in the region are based predominantly on agriculture and to a lesser extent other natural resources dependent sectors such as fisheries, wildlife tourism, forestry and mining. See table 1. Growth strategies in all countries aim at increasing agricultural output, to diversify the economy, to invest in improved transport and energy infrastructure and to invest in human capital. Strengthening institutional capacity and property rights also feature high in all development plans.

Table 1 Importance of environment and natural resources to GDP and employment

Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda

GDP per capita, PPP, current USD 726 1316 1278 751 1519

Agriculture, crops+livestock

50 22,7 34,7 45 37,7

Fisheries * 0,5 0,4 * 1,9

Forestry * 1,1 1,3 * 1,5

Mining 1 0,5 0,6 3 0,8

Tourism 4 11,6 5,8 9,4 9,9

Environment and natural resources, share of GDP

Total 55 36,4 42,8 57,4 51,8

Environment and natural resources, share of employment

Agriculture (including fisheries and forestry) Tourism**

94 3

75

9,4

90

4,6

80

4,6

82

7,9

*The figure on agriculture also includes fisheries and forestry. Sources: World Development Indicators (GDP per capita), Kenya Statistical Abstract 2006, Central Bureau of Statistics, Rwanda EDPRS share of GDP 2001-2006, Tanzania in Figures 2006, National Bureau of Statistics, Uganda key Economic Indicators 2006-2007, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Burundi NAPA 2007. Figures on tourism calculated according to World Travel and Tourism Council Kenya has the most diversified economy in which agriculture account for a relatively small share, about 25%, compared with 50% for Burundi. When other natural resources sectors are added, such as mining and tourism it is clear that responsible management of natural resources is of greatest importance to the economy in East Africa.

4.2 Natural resources savings rate and investments

To get a better view of the economic development in the country and resources available for future growth the World Bank has developed the Adjusted Net Savings indicator. It depicts a broader picture of savings in an economy by taking into account investments in human capital, depletion of natural resources and damage caused by pollution. Due to lack of data the measurement currently does not consider the economic impacts of degraded agricultural lands, water resources degradation, reduced fish stocks, biodiversity losses or reduced ecosystem services like water retention, flood regulation or nutrient recycling. Given that land degradation is a large problem in the region we have chosen to include data from economic valuations of the costs of soil erosion where such studies exist (Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya). These estimates should be treated with caution; they are calculated in different ways and should above all be seen as an indication of the costs associated with poor management of natural resources. As shown in previous chapters, degradation of natural


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resources and ecosystems in one country can have regional implications. Likewise ecosystems in one country may be impacted by policies in neighbouring countries. For instance deforestation rates can partly be driven by logging bans and improved forest governance across the border. Land degradation in upstream countries affects downstream water users and fishers etc. Table 2 show that Burundi and Uganda have negative Adjusted Net Savings which implies that total wealth is declining. Persistently negative savings indicate an unsustainable development. In the case of Burundi this is mainly explained by the high deforestation rate and in Uganda by land degradation causing lower agricultural yields. In both these cases the impacts can be felt downstream in Lake Victoria.48 This is particularly challenging for poor men and women whose main assets beside labour are natural capital like land and common property resources such as forests and grazing lands. Table 2 Adjusted Net Savings for the five Lake Victoria Basin Countries

Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda

Gross savings (%of GNI) 8,7 12,2 19,5 9,3 10,1

Consumption of fixed capital (%of GNI) -6,7 -8,8 -7,7 -8 -8,1

Education expenditure (%of GNI) 3,9 6,6 3,5 2,4 4

Reduction of natural capital* (% of GNI) -11,7 -5,4 -4,8 -0,80 -12,1

Adjusted net savings (%of GNI) -5,8 4,6** 10,5** 2,90 -6,1**

*Energy and mineral depletion, net forest depletion, CO2 and particulate emissions. **For Rwanda, Kenya and Uganda costs associated with land degradation have been added. Source: World Bank, 2007, Little Green Data book. For more information on Adjusted Net Savings, see Annex V.

4.3 Market and policy failures

Current unsustainable management of natural resources and degradation of ecosystem services can to a large extent be explained by market failures and poorly developed or implemented polices. Individual farmers are not paying for the damage caused by nutrient loading of the lake. Likewise commercial cash crop farmers are not compensating downstream water users for reduced access to water or degraded water quality due to agrochemical use. Regulations on treatment of industrial wastewater are lacking and fishermen that refrain from using illegal fishing gear suffer from unfair competition from those that violate regulations. The examples above illustrate that benefits of investing in better natural resources management often are greater on a societal level than on the individual level. The pay back period for investments in improved soil and water conservation may be too long for poor farmers. Improved access to credit or special programs may be needed to address the problem. Such schemes are easier to implement if societal benefits accrue to the investor (i.e. a country). In the case of Lake Victoria, benefits of investments in ecosystems and better incentive systems that promote sustainable development will be shared among the five countries and notably the shoreline nations of Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. Without regional cooperation, transparency and accountability it is unlikely that sufficient investments in natural resources and better management systems will take place. Policy instruments to improve environment and natural resources management can be divided into four categories: using markets, creating markets, environmental regulation and engaging the public. In the Basin environmental regulations is the most widely used policy instrument but there are also examples of environmental taxes such as forest concessions, fish levies and information campaigns

48 Typically deforestation and loss of soils lead add to the nutrient load of the lake. See previous also 2.2.1 Land, wetland and forest degradation and the poor


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targeting the public. Strong institutions that are able to monitor and enforce regulations on forestry, fishery and land use will be of great importance. Improved collection of natural resources rents (forest concessions, water tariffs, royalties on fisheries) can increase the efficiency of the economy and generate funds that can be redistributed with a view to generate pro-poor growth. The Ministries of Finance could clearly play a more important role in support of better management of natural resources.

5. Regional natural resources governance Lake Victoria is a shared resource with common public good characteristics which create specific governance challenges. Weak governance is considered a major cause of natural resources degradation.49 Governance must encompass all administrative levels to be efficient. Regional governance cannot replace national or local governance but it can help raise the political pressure thus improving governance on national levels. Since the start of the 90’s the five countries have developed policies for environmental and natural resources management on national level. Local authorities have been given greater responsibility through decentralization reforms in for instance Uganda and Rwanda. However, law enforcement is typically weak, institutions for monitoring are heavily dependent on donor funding and their capacity is low.50 Corruption is widespread51. Most of the agricultural and rural development institutions have been unstable which have resulted in low productivity as well as environment and natural resource degradation.52 Defined and enforced property rights (private or common) are generally seen as a condition for good management of natural resources. Therefore it is positive that the countries in the Basin seek to improve land titling and land Acts. Cultural or legal barriers still prohibit many women from ownership and equal control over resources thus constraining their participation in economic activities, access to credit and investments in soil and water conservation etc. For more information on national and local natural resources governance see the respective country policy briefs in the Annex. The East African Community is the main regional institution. But management of natural resources in Lake Victoria basin is also subject to international conventions ratified by the individual countries (desertification, climate change, biodiversity etc) and affected by other frameworks like NEPAD and the Nile Basin Initiative.

5.1 The East African Community

The entry of Rwanda and Burundi as new members in 2007 is a sign of the political interest in East African Community (EAC) and brings all five Lake Victoria basin countries into one community. Its mission is to widen and deepen economic, political, social and cultural integration in order to improve the quality of life of the people in the region through increased competitiveness, value added production, trade and investment. EAC’s development strategy 2006-2010 aims at consolidating a customs union, establishing a common market and prepare for a monetary union and political federation. The EAC priority sectors are agriculture, industry, tourism and wildlife.53 The poor state of infrastructure, particularly roads is considered a binding constraint to growth.54 Reliable and adequate energy supply is highlighted as a

49 EAC, 2006 50 Ibid 51 Corruption in fisheries industry is discussed in Odada et al, 2004, and in the forest sector in Shayo, 2006 52 EAC, 2006d 53 EAC, 2006c 54 Ibid


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key regional concern with important economies of scale55. Currently most foreign investments are directed to natural resources sectors. The EAC underscores the importance of attracting investments outside of natural resources. Institutions under the EAC include the EAC Secretariat, EALA (legislative assembly), EACJ (court of justice), EADB (development bank) LVFO (Lake Victoria Fisheries Organisation) and LVBC (Lake Victoria Basin Commission). The EAC and its institutions are dependent on donor financing. With the inclusion of Rwanda and Burundi, partner country contributions rise from 62 to 78 % of the EAC budget with development partners contributing the remaining 22 %.56 The EAC lacks an effective system for monitoring implementation of decisions made by its different institutions. According to the EAC the main part of the implementation problems is with the capacity, monitoring and evaluation and accountability systems at the national level. Also, an overemphasis of harmonising national interests instead of focusing on finding solutions to regional requirements is a problem within the EAC. 57 Increased political will and financial contributions from member countries are important to strengthen the EAC and its weak institutions.58 A series of measures are planned to strengthen the capacity of the EAC and its institutions.

5.2 The EAC and management of natural resources in the Lake Victoria Basin

EAC highlights Lake Victoria as an area of common economic interest, a protocol (ratified in 2004) defines specific areas of cooperation with a new institution, the Lake Victoria Basin Commission charged with overseeing the implementation of the protocol. Implementation of the protocol is referred to as a key focus of the EAC Strategy. In 2004 the EAC council of ministers adopted a shared vision and strategy framework. The shared EAC vision for Lake Victoria is: “A prosperous population living in a healthy and sustainable managed environment providing equitable opportunities and benefits”. In the EAC development strategy the shared vision and strategy framework is referred to as a planning tool.59 There is little mention of the strategy framework in the development strategy more than the overly ambitious goal of completing the implementation of the vision and strategy framework by December 2007.

5.3 Lake Victoria Basin Commission

The Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC) is the most important regional coordination body for environmental management and natural resources in the basin. The tasks of the commission include promoting and coordinating: harmonization of laws and regulations, promotion of stakeholder participation, monitoring, evaluation and compliance with agreed actions. The strength of the LVBC is linked to the status of the national focal points at ministerial level.60 The status of these national focal points should be strengthened.61 The LVBC secretariat resides in Kisumu, Kenya. Staff and core operations are funded by the EAC partner states and the budget is about 2 MUSD or 7 % of the

55 EAC, 2006e 56 EAC, Council of Ministers 18th of April 2007 57 EAC, 2006c 58 Lubaale et al, 2007 59 EAC, 2006c 60 Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Kenya), Ministry of Water and Livestock Development (Tanzania), Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment (Uganda), Ministry of Lands, Environment, Forestry, Water and Mines (Rwanda) and Ministry of Land Management, Tourism and Environment (Burundi). 61Laugerud, 2005


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EAC budget. The LVBC also receives financing from development partners through the Partnership fund for Lake Victoria. The mandate of LVBC is partially overlapping with the mandate of NELSAP within the Nile Basin Initiative. Whereas LVBC is a intergovernmental institution NELSAP is a time-limited project. There is need to revisit the mandates of these institutions to improve coordination.62 The Strategic Action Plan for the Lake Victoria Basin agreed upon by EAC Council of Ministers in March 2007 provides an important point of departure for future priorities. The priorities in the Strategic Action Plan as described in previous chapters should be seen in the light of the need to qualify for GEF funding (Global Environmental Facility). This could be a reason why issues like income generating activities and high population growth (causes) are given lower priority than land, forest and wetland degradation and unsustainable fish exploitation (symptoms). The LVBC is given the mandate to monitor implementation of the Strategic action plan which broadly can be described as an investment in the natural capital (soil productivity, water retention, water purification, fish stocks etc). Clearly success of the SAP depends on results achieved by other programmes such as investments in infrastructure (roads, credit markets, energy, and institutions) and investments in human capital through health and education. A new operational strategy for LVBC 2007-2010 has recently been adopted and will be of great importance to implement the Strategic Action Plan. Production and income generation programme is a strong component along with the programme on Environment and Water resources management.

6 Swedish development cooperation in the region The Swedish Lake Victoria Initiative is a regional program. Regional programmes should focus on areas where a regional approach is the only or the most efficient way to address specific problems. The current strategy consists of: Capacity development for sustainable development, Empowering communities and individuals, Sound environment and sustainable use of natural resources, Combating HIV/AIDS and Private sector development for economic growth. Support has been given to a wide range of regional institutions, networks and and multi donor programs including: LVBC, LVEMP, NELSAP-CU, ECOVIC, LVRLAC, EABC, UN Habitat, Network of environmental journalists. The environmental situation has changed since the strategy for 2004-2007 was adopted. The most important differences are; reduced catches of Nile perch, the reappearance of the water hyacinth, lower water levels in the lake and the increasing awareness on the need for climate change risk reduction. The energy crisis and the social and economic risks associated with overfishing of Nile perch provide strong political incentives for national governments to move regional collaboration higher up on the agenda. Other important changes include the enlargement of the East African Community with Rwanda and Burundi and the increased capacity of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission. Stronger regional cooperation provides an opportunity to reduce costs for natural resources governance, to improve knowledge transfer and the application of new policy instruments. Moreover, it creates a political momentum that could facilitate implementation of legislation on the national and local level. Development cooperation in the Lake Victoria Basin also relates to the Swedish strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa and to the strategy for the Great Lakes region. The strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa

62 CMI, 2006, Regional dimensions of Norwegian Country Programmes in East Africa


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gives priority to: strengthen regional organisations and regional integration, peace and security, shared natural resources, energy, transport and trade. Conflict prevention, security and confidence building measures are key features in the strategy for the Great Lakes region. Most of the interventions proposed in the Strategic Action Plan for Lake Victoria are best undertaken on a national level. Therefore it is important to increase awareness of the regional priorities in bilateral development cooperation to ensure a coherent approach.63 Table 3 provide an overview of bilateral cooperation in the five countries. Table 3 Bilateral cooperation Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda

Current strategy -top three –four sectors

Main sectors 2006: -Humanitarian assistance -Human rights and democratic governance -Conflict, peace and security

Main sectors 2006: -Human rights and democratic governance -Natural resources and the environment -Infrastructure Proposed sectors for 2007-2011* -Democratic governance -Natural resources and Environment -Urban development

Main sectors 2006: -General budget support -Education (Research) -Human rights and democratic governance -Humanitarian assistance

Main sectors 2006: -General budget support -Education -Human rights and democratic governance -Health

Main sectors 2006: -Humanitarian Assistance -Health -Human rights and democratic governance Proposed sectors for 2008-2011 -Democratic governance with Peace and Security -Private Sector Development and trade. -Health sector

Strategy period

Jan 2004- Dec 2008

Jan 2004- Dec 2007 Jan 2004- Dec 2008

Jul 2006- Dec 2010

Jan 2001-Dec 2007

Sida support 2006 (MSEK)

61 383 127 819 461

*Source Draft strategy April 2007 (Kenya) and May 2007 (Uganda) **Projected figure in the respective strategy documents In line with the Paris Declaration on Aid effectiveness Sweden is aiming for improved alignment with governments’ priorities and harmonization with other donors. See Annex II for more information about major development projects, institutions and donors in the region.

7 Conclusions and issues for Sida to consider

7.1 General conclusions

Poverty reduction and economic growth in the Lake Victoria Basin cannot be sustained without well functioning ecosystems. The rapidly growing population is largely dependent on natural resources based sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, tourism, forestry and mining. Although national development plans seek to increase economic diversification, natural resource based sectors are

63 According to a recent World Bank review of regional programs, the impacts can be enhanced by greater coordination with Country Assistance Strategies. World Bank, 2007c


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expected to continue to be critical for poverty reduction and growth. Current resource degradation hinders growth, reduce agricultural yields and impact negatively on people’s health and well-being. The main environmental problems are land, wetland and forest degradation, pollution, overfishing and declining water balance. Climate change is likely to add to these existing problems while at the same time increasing the vulnerability of poor men and women cultivating or inhabiting marginal lands prone to floods and drought. Climate change could also provide opportunities for private sector development and increased funds. Capacity is needed to understand the implications of climate change and to ensure cost efficient adaptation. Sustainable management of the Lake Victoria Basin calls for a wide mix of interventions that affect the actions of economic decision makers ranging from subsistence farmers to large corporations and authorities. Interventions needed include investments in education, health, infrastructure, natural resources sectors and institutions but also policy development and governance in general and natural resources governance in particular. Lake Victoria is a shared resource, a public good, which demands regional cooperation for its management. Joint action provides an opportunity to reduce costs for natural resources governance, to improve knowledge transfer and harmonize policies. Moreover, it creates a political momentum that could facilitate implementation of legislation on the national and local level. The enlargement of the East African Community with Rwanda and Burundi could help support the necessary collective action. The Strategic action plan adopted by the East African Community address the need for improved natural resources governance and investments in forests, fisheries, water and land etc. It is a promising plan for which the challenge lies in its implementation. The Lake Victoria Basin Commission has the mandate to harmonize laws and regulations and to monitor implementation of the Strategic action plan with support from national focal ministries. Weak governance and low policy implementation pose a serious threat to the realization of the plans.

7.2 Proposals for regional development cooperation

Sweden has strong and long bilateral ties with the most of the countries in the Basin and has played an important role to promote regional action on Lake Victoria. Based on this policy brief and our knowledge we have made a number of proposals that respond to underlying causes identified in the policy brief and are suitable to be addressed on a regional level. We recommend that these proposals are further discussed by Sida. It should be noted that we have not taken part of evaluations from all the ongoing support to regional programs and actors. Furthermore the proposals chosen mainly focus on issues more directly linked to environment and natural resources sectors and governance despite the great need for complementary investments in health, education, energy, roads etc. This delimitation is chosen as we believe that these important complementary issues are addressed on both EAC and national level. That said we strongly underline the importance that the Lake Victoria Secretariat discuss alternative livelihood options, economic diversification, improving market access etc in its dialogue with the LVBC.

7.2.1 Seek synergies between the Strategic Action Plan and bilateral and regional

Swedish support

The bilateral ties between Sweden and the five Basin countries provide an opportunity to support improved regional management of the Lake. It appears that Sweden is particularly well positioned to incorporate the Strategic Action Plan for Lake Victoria Basin in its dialogue with Kenya and Rwanda where there is on-going support to natural resources and environment sector/authorities. There is also a strong link between implementation of the EAC Strategic Action Plan and Human rights and democratic governance, a focus sector for Swedish bilateral cooperation in all five


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countries. Improved property rights for both men and women are important for sustainable management of natural resources and ecosystems. Opportunities to contribute to strengthened property rights should be explored within on-going programs and/or in dialogue with the government. In a regional perspective, the Swedish support to the AU Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme is clearly of great importance. It could be elaborated on how the support to the Green Blue Water Initiative could best fit into the framework of CAADP? 7.2.2 Strengthen the Lake Victoria Basin Commission

As described throughout the policy brief current unsustainable management of natural resources calls for regional cooperation. The key institutional body is the LVBC with its institutional ownership of development activities. LVBC is charged with the important task to harmonize and monitor implementation with the National Focal Ministries as principal partner. The capacity of LVBC and of the National Focal Ministries is insufficient and need strengthening. Although policies and regulations can be enhanced implementation of existing policies is the key governance problem. Monitoring and use of indicators for follow up on the Strategic Action Plan should be promoted. There is also a risk that LVBC gets overwhelmed with issues directly linked to environment and natural resources. It is important that LVBC has the capacity also to actively engage with sectors like tourism, energy and private sector development. The Lake Victoria Initiative should continue to support the LVBC financially and politically. 7.2.3 Increase transparency, accountability and enhance information flow

Improved access to information to broader groups in society is important for progress and is linked to accountability and sharing of know how. The vast flora of projects, programmes and research in the Basin generate significant amounts of data. Efforts of the LVBC to make its database accessible should be promoted. If properly disseminated, information and research findings can be used by various stakeholders including civil society, extension officers and parliamentarians. Civil society can play an important role as “watchdogs” to support implementation of agreed plans and policies by having access to information. Media play an important role and continued support to the Network of Environmental Journalists should be considered. The regional cooperation around the Baltic Sea has been a source of inspiration and knowledge for Lake Victoria. The recent launch of a plan for making an economic review of the Baltic Sea resembling the Stern review on climate change could be followed and the potential for making a “Stern-like study” should be considered.64 In order to improve accountability a yearly high profile conference, possibly organized jointly with an existing EAC event could be envisioned. The conference would focus on the state of Lake Victoria and follow up on the Strategic Action Plan to ensure that progress is made and governance and policy instruments are discussed. Politicians, scientists, regional organisations and civil society would be the key participants. The Lake Victoria Initiative could investigate the interest for and opportunities for funding such an event. The Lake Victoria Initiative could also investigate how best to support awareness raising and community sensitizing not least via extension officers in bilateral programs. This relates to research findings generated by various research institutions (see above). A case in point is the urgency of

64 Initiative launched jointly by the governments of Sweden and Finland on November 14th 2007. The EAC Strategic Action Plan include a similar idea, page 40 “It should be very relevant for the sustainable management of the LVB to have an assessment of the economic value of the environmental goods and services that are generated in the Basin, as well as an assessment of the value of the demand for these goods and services. “


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being able to provide location specific advice on what trees to plant for optimal yields without creating water stress.65 7.2.4 Promote the use of strategic environmental assessments in EAC policy

development

Despite existing and emerging legislation related to environment and natural resources, institutional capacity and implementation is weak. The use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is increasingly promoted in national legislation within most of the basin countries66. The purpose of SEAs is to make more informed decisions on policies, plans and programmes by integrating environmental and natural resources issues and evaluate their inter linkages with economic and social considerations. An SEA is typically carried out simultaneously when new policies etc are created for instance by having environmental expertise available in discussions. SEAs brings environmental considerations into key policy processes and is promoted in the Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness (§41). Using SEAs within EAC would have multiple benefits. Firstly it would contribute to more informed EAC policies, plans and programmes (tourism, energy, transportation etc) thus reducing negative environmental impacts on Lake Victoria. Secondly, it would build capacity both among decision makers from the five countries and regional SEA practitioners. This could make an important contribution to increase demand for national SEAs and improved decision making on national level. The Lake Victoria Initiative should therefore support the capacity to make strategic environmental assessments an integrated part of policy making within the regional body, EAC. 7.2.5 Build regional capacity on climate change and disaster risk reduction

The region will be affected by climate change both directly and indirectly. Directly expected changes in the climate includes increased frequency of natural disasters (floodings, droughts), impact on agricultural yields, food security, spread of malaria etc. Indirectly the region is likely to generate substantially increased interest from OECD countries looking for ways to offset CO2 emissions and/or invest in bio fuel production. Capacity building is necessary to deal with both the threats and opportunities. Economies of scale could be realized by regional collaboration. EAC is already working jointly on natural disaster management. EAC could expand the work to encompass the challenges and opportunities related to carbon offsetting (research, climate scenarios, guidelines, oversee design and marketing of carbon credits, awareness raising etc).67 The Lake Victoria Initiative should investigate the opportunities for regional collaboration around climate change. There is a risk that the rapidly growing attention to climate change and disaster risk reduction result in the formation of new institutions and separate tracks thus raising transaction costs. It is of key importance that existing frameworks and institutions should be used as much as possible. 7.2.6 Support regional institutions and networks

Continue to strengthen capacity development and experience sharing among local communities around the lake (Lake Victoria Regional Local Authorities Cooperation). Perhaps it could include a peer review mechanism and expansion of their contacts with Burundi and Rwanda to bring their

65 Increased forest cover is part of most plans and carbon offsetting schemes could be anticipated to expand. It is important that suitable species are used. For instance, there is now a ban in Rwanda to plant Eucalyptus in certain areas in order to save water. 66 SEAs are promoted in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. General challenges include to improve implementation of environmental assessments (EIA and SEA) by strengthening awareness and capacity and to improve public participation. Some countries also need more comprehensive legislation and guidelines have to be adopted when missing. 67 The Draft Operational Strategy for the Lake Victoria Basin Commission (draft June 2007) elaborates on the demand for increased capacity in this area.


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local governments into the organization. City planning and urban water and sanitation issues are likely to continue to be important areas of mutual interest.


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Table 3 Selected indicators for the five Basin countries Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Population 7,5 30 8,3 28,8 38,3 Population in the Lake Victoria Basin

3,85 11,6 5,8 5,6 8,1

Annual population growth

2,1 2,1 2,9 3,4 2,0

Human Development Index, (Ranking )

0,384 (169)

0,491 (152)

0,450 (158)

0,430 (162)

0,502 (145)

Mortality due to environmental risk factors/1000 inhabitants

2,3 1,1 2,4 n.a. 1,9

GDP per capita (PPP) current, USD

729 1316 1278 751 1519

Environment and natural resources share of GDP (incl. tourism)

55 36,4 42,8 57,4 51,8

Forest area (% of area)

5,9 6,2 19,5 39,9 18,4

Annual change in forest area (2000-2005)

-5,2 -0,3 6,9** -1,1 -2,2

Agricultural land (% of area)

91 47 78 54 63

Adjusted net savings See Annex

-2,9 10,5 9,1 2,0 -2,9

Access to improved water

79 61 74 62 60

Access to improved sanitation

36 43 42 47 43

Corruption index 2006

2,4 2,2 2,5 2,9 2,7

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment 2

2,5 3 3 3,5 4

Legal framework for environmental impact assessments (EIA) and strategic environmental assessments (SEA) 3

EIA (2000) EIA (1999) SEA (2002)

EIA (proposed in EPRS 2007) SEA (proposed in EPRS 2007)

EIA (2004) SEA (2004)

EIA (1995) SEA (work to develop guidelines was initiated in 2003 but has not been finalized)

World Bank, 2007, Little Green Data book 2007, Human Development Index, 2004, EAC, 2006, RTDA, Global Forest Resources Assessment, Transparency International Corruption Perception Index. For

2 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment. The environment criterion assesses the extent to which environmental policies foster the protection and sustainable use of natural resources and the management of pollution. Assessment of environmental sustainability requires multi-dimension criteria (i.e. for air, water, waste, conservation management, coastal zones management, natural resources management). To ensure balanced assessments, World Bank staff assesses country policies and institutions by filling


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out a specific questionnaire to arrive at a score from 1-6. The average score of 72 assessed developing countries was 3,15 in 2005. The highest score was 4.

As an example, the score three is briefly described as: Regulations and policies cover some issues but effectiveness is limited. Implementation is weak. Public information is limited. EIA system exists but capacity and quality is low. Limited data exist but priority setting is weak. Consideration of environmental issues in sector ministries is minimal.

3 Impact assessments are used to improve decision making. The Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness specifically promotes the use of EIA (projects) and SEA (policies, plans and programmes). Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda have considerably more experience of EIA than Rwanda and Burundi. Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda have well adopted legislations on EIA Burundi needs to improve their EIA-legislation and Rwanda has not yet developed an EIA-legislation. Tanzania and Kenya are the only countries in the region with well adopted SEA-legislation, but practice is still very low. The EIA practice in Tanzania and Kenya is relatively good in the region but do not fulfil the legislative requirements nor reaches international levels. Uganda is not far behind the two countries. In Burundi and Rwanda EIA practice is very low. The use of EIA and SEA are growing in the region. General challenges in the five countries include to improve implementation of environmental assessments (EIA and SEA) by strengthening awareness and capacity and to improve public participation. Some countries also need more comprehensive legislation and guidelines have to be adopted when missing. See also the policy briefs for the respective countries.


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References Beachler, G, 1999, Violence through environmental discrimination: Causes Rwanda Arena and Conflict Model Clay and Lewis, 2000, Land use, soil loss and sustainable agriculture in Rwanda MSU/MINAGRI papers Cohen et al, 2006, Estimating the environmental cost of soil erosion at multiple scales in Kenya using emergy synthesis CMI, 2006, Regional Dimensions of Norwegian Country Programmes in East Africa Cowx et al, 2003, Improving fishery catch statistics for Lake Victoria, Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management, 6(3) East African Community, 2004, Protocol for sustainable development of Lake Victoria Basin EAC Secretariat, Arusha, Tanzania East African Community Secretariat, 2006, Draft final Regional Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (RTDA) of the Lake Victoria Basin report for the Lake Victoria Basin, Prepared by Environment and Development Associates (EDA), Kampala, Uganda East African Community, 2006b, Special report on the declining water levels of Lake Victoria East African Community, 2006c, EAC Development Strategy 2006 – 2010 - Final Draft East African Community, 2006d, Agriculture and rural development policy for the East African Community (2005 - 2030) EAC, 2006e, Regional initiatives to increase energy access: the case of the EAC East African Community Secretariat, 2007, Strategic Action Plan for the Lake Victoria Basin East African Community, 2007, Notes Council of Ministers 18th of April EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium FAO, 2006, Globfish Nile perch Market Report Aug 2006 FAO, 2007, Globfish Nile perch Market Report July 2007 FAO STAT Homer-Dixon, 1996, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Rwanda, The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 5 GIWA. 2006, East African Rift Valley Lakes. GIWA Regional assessment 47. UNEP/GEF/Kalmar University ICRAF, 2007, Improved land management in the Lake Victoria Basin ICRAF, 2007b, Tree water use, synthesis 1 - The right tree for the right place


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IIDS. 2005. Connecting Poverty and Ecosystem Services. Focus on Rwanda. UNEP. IIDS. 2005. Connecting Poverty and Ecosystem Services. Focus on Uganda. UNEP. IIDS. 2005. Connecting Poverty and Ecosystem Services. Focus on Kenya. UNEP. IIDS. 2005. Connecting Poverty and Ecosystem Services. Focus on Tanzania. UNEP. ILRI, 2006, Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa Institute for Security Studies, 2005, From the Ground Up: Land Rights, Conflicts and Peace in Sub-Saharan Africa IPCC, 2007, Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Kenya Central Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Kenya Statistical Abstract 2006 Kolding et al, 2005, Regional Synthesis Report on Fisheries Research and Management- States, trends and processes, LVEMP Laugerud, 2005, Mid-term review of the EAC Partnership fund, SIWI, 2006 Lubaale et al, 2007, Empowerment of communities and individuals: an assessment of the relevance and operationalisation of the Sida/Lake Victoria Initiative strategy for empowerment LVEMP, 2005, Water Quality Synthesis Report Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization, 2006, Frame survey http://lvfo.org/index.php?option=displaypage&Itemid=150&op=page Mungai et al, 2004, Lessons from two long-term hydrological studies in Kenya and Sri Lanka, in Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 104 (2004) Munga, et al,. 2006. Association between land cover and habitat productivity of malaria vectors in Western kenyan highlands. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 74 National Geographic News, 2007, On Africa's Largest Lake, Fishers Suffer Falling Stocks Rising Demand, March 13 Netherlands Commission for Environmental Impact Assessment, 2007, Advice on Screening for SEA for Lake Levels in the Nile Equatorial Lake Region Odada E., Olago D., Kulindwa K., Ntiba M. and Wandiga S. 2004. Mitigation of environmental problems in Lake Victoria, East Africa: Causal Chain and policy options analysis, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Ambio Vol 33 Republic of Kenya. 2006. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for Lake Victoria Basin Republic of Burundi 2006. Lake Victoria Environment Management Projects, Uganda National Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for Lake Victoria Basin, Ministry of Land Management, Tourism and Environment, Final Report prepared by University of Lake Tanganyika Republic of Burundi, 2007, National Adaptation Plan of Action


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Republic of Uganda 2006. Lake Victoria Environment Management Projects, Uganda National Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for Lake Victoria Basin, Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment, Final Report prepared by Environment and Development Associates Republic of Rwanda, 2006, Economic Analysis of natural resources management in Rwanda Republic of Rwanda, July 2007, Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (Draft) Republic of Rwanda and Donor Group, 2006, Land use and Environment – joint sector review Rwanda Environment Management Authority 2006. National Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) for the Lake Victoria Basin. Draft Final Report Prepared by Centre for Resources Analysis limited (CRA), Kigali, Shayo, 2006, Forest Governance in limbo in Tanzania Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2004, Regional Strategy for the Great Lakes Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2004b, Strategy for Swedish support for poverty reduction and sustainable development in the Lake Victoria Basin 2004–2006 Tate et al, 2004, Water balance of Lake Victoria update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100 Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Tanzania in Figures 2006, UNEP, 2005, Africas Lakes, Atlas of our changing environment UN Habitat, 2005, Cities development strategies for improved urban environment and poverty reduction –in the Lake Victoria Region United Republic of Tanzania. 2006. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for Lake Victoria Basin Uganda Ministry of Water and Environment, 2006, Applied research Programme Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2007, Uganda key Economic Indicators 2006-2007 O’Reilly et al, 2003, Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of LakeTanganyika, Africa Nature 424, 2003 Tamatamah et al, 2005, The atmospheric deposition of phosphorus in Lake Victoria (East Africa) Biogeochemistry (2005) 73 Transparency International, “Transparency International´s Corruption Index 2006” http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2006 WHO: “Quantifying nvironmental health impacts” http://www.who.int/quantifying_ehimpacts/countryprofilesebd.xls World Bank, 2006, An Independent Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support of Regional Programs, Case Study of the Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project World Bank, 2007, At Loggerheads? Agricultural expansion, poverty reduction and environment in the tropical forests World Bank, 2007b, Little Green Data book


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World Bank, 2007c, The Development potential of Regional Programs World Travel and Tourism Council: www.wttc.travel/eng/Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Country_Reports/Rwandai/index.php Yaron et al, 2004, The role of environment in increasing growth and reducing poverty in Uganda Interviews:

Bernhard Obera, Rashid Mwakiwiwi, Lawrence Airo, Charles Angira, City of Kisumu and LVRLAC, June 12th 2007 Henning Baur, Lou Verchot, Chin Ong, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), June 13th 2007 Ladisy Chengula, Senior Natural Resources Management Specialist, World Bank, June 14th, 2007 Mussolini Kithome, Project manager NELSAP-Mara, June 15th 2007 Obiero Ong’ang’a, Executive Director of Osienala, June 12th 2007 Sam Gishere, National Focal Point Officer, Kenyan Ministry of Environment and Hezron Mogaka , National Coordinator, LVEMP II, Kenyan Ministry of Environment, June 14th 2007 Tom Okurut, Executive Secretary of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission, June 12th, 2007


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Annex I Major development projects, institutions and donors in the region

(Text copied from the EAC, 2006, Strategic Action Plan for the Lake Victoria Basin)

Regional Key Institutions

EAC and LVBC

The East African Community (EAC) is the regional intergovernmental organisation of the five Riparian States, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi with its headquarters in Arusha, Tanzania. Its mandates and roles as well as crucial milestones have been described in the previous chapter. LVBC rests within this organisation. It is the key stakeholder of the SAP and the Client of the project. LVEMP

The Lake Victoria Environmental Project is an initiative under EAC, with national secretariats situated in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Extension of Phase 1 will end in December 2006. Phase 2 has concurrently been initiated. The overall goal of LVEMP is to introduce environmentally and socially sustainable economic development to the region while at the same time maintaining the rich biodiversity and resource base for the use of future generations. Its multi-sectoral approach covers 11different components over the Lake Victoria Basin comprising aspects of fisheries research and management, environmental issues, water quality and pollution control, land use and management, as well as institutional issues and capacity building. LVFO

The Lake Victoria Fisheries Organisation (LVFO) is an institution under EAC based in Jinja, Uganda. The main objectives of the LVFO are to harmonise national measures for sustainable use of the lake’s fisheries resources and to develop and adopt conservation and management measures accordingly. The Convention delineates a set of functions to achieve the overall objective, inter alia to provide a forum for discussion of initiatives to deal with environmental conditions and water quality in the Lake Basin, to promote research with respect to the living resources of the lake, and to address problems of non-indigenous species. NBI, NELSAP and NTEAP

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was formally launched in February 1999 by the Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin States. The Initiative provides a forum for the countries of the Nile to move forward a cooperative process to realize tangible benefits in the Basin and build a solid foundation of trust and confidence. The NBI constitutes the Nile – COM (Nile Council of Ministers) which serves as the highest decision-making body of the NBI. The Nile - COM is supported by Nile – TAC (Nile Technical Advisory), which is composed of two senior officials from each member country. The NBI further maintains a secretariat, the Nile – SEC (The Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat), located in Entebbe, Uganda. Important subsidiary initiatives within the NBI pertaining issues of relevance for the SAP are:


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� The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) oversees implementation of the jointly identified Strategic Action Programme and promotes cooperative inter-country and in country investment projects related to the common use of the Nile Basin water resources

� The Nile Transboundary Environmental Action Programme (NTEAP) is the largest

project in the NBI - Shared Vision Program. It provides a strategic framework for environmentally sustainable development of the Nile River Basin and support Basin wide environmental action linked to transboundary issues in the context of the NBI Strategic Action Program.

Regional NGO’s and Knowledge Centers

The World Conservation Union (IUCN) regional office in East Africa is in Nairobi, supported by country offices in Uganda and Tanzania. Together with WWF it is the most influential regional environmental NGO in the Basin. It has various thematic areas of work (wetlands and water resources, drylands, forest and woodlands e.g) but it also undertakes social policy studies and supports local environmental NGO’s. The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has its regional office in Nairobi, Kenya. Through its Eastern Africa Regional Programme Office (EARPO) it oversees WWF work in the five Basin states. Focus is wildlife management and conservation including awareness, outreach and education. The World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF), which has its regional office in Nairobi, Kenya is promoting the use of trees and tree-based technologies on farms and agricultural landscapes, coupled with improved policies and institutional innovations, to make significant contribution towards alleviating poverty and improving food security and environmental conservation. African Center for Technology Studies (ACTS) is a Nairobi-based international intergovernmental science, technology and environmental policy think-tank that generates and disseminates new knowledge through policy analysis, capacity building and outreach. The Inter-University Council for East Africa (IUCEA) is a regional inter-governmental organisation whose mission is to encourage and develop mutually beneficial collaboration between universities in East Africa, and between them and governments and other organisations, both public and private. It is one of the autonomous institutions of EAC. The IUCEA through Lake Victoria Research (VicRes) Initiative is supporting staff of universities to undertake research on poverty reduction and environmental restoration. Network of Environmental Journalist for Lake Victoria - Has membership in the three EAC Partner States. Its mandate includes enabling media to promote accurate presentation of facts and exchange of information about the Lake and its environment. It is central in influencing policy by empowering and linking different players in natural resource management - local, national and regional levels. Both VicRes and the Network of Journalist can enhance awareness on environmental issues and impending environmental impacts.


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ECOVIC - NGO supporting initiatives geared towards the improvement of the environment including awareness creation and advocacy. LVRLAC - With its headquarters in Entebbe, has national coordinating Office and serves as an umbrella organization for Local Authorities around Lake Victoria, facilitates dialogue on sustainable development for local authorities around the Lake. Major Donor Organisations relevant for the SAP

The World Bank through GEF is the financing institution for the national and regional TDA and SAP processes and thus the key donor stakeholder for this project. Besides WB central and coordinating role in supporting development and investment programs and projects in the region, like those through EAC including the LVEMP. African Development Bank (ADB): ADB has had various activities and programs in the region. Relevant projects are infrastructure and agricultural projects, projects concerned with the upgrading of fish landings, fish markets and aquaculture facilities as well as Nile perch export requirements including provision to supply patrol boats. The Commonwealth Secretariat has supported LVFO and collaborating national authorities in conducting a fisheries-human resources development programme involving a long-term post associated with the LVFO. This has been a lake-wide exercise and the Commonwealth Secretariat is likely to continue to fund the implementation of proposed activities for awareness building and training at the fishing community level. Department For International Development (DFID) has amongst others been engaged in an integrated lake management projects in Uganda with the aim to involve local communities in the management of fishery resources as well as land reforms in Rwanda. SIDA has for a long time supported development activities of direct relevance to the Lake Victoria Basin. They include programs on health, sanitation, water management, education and outreach amongst others. The SIDA initiative to the Partnership Agreement (SIDA 1999), that feeds directly into the Vision and SAP processes, was prepared to meet a need for a more co-ordinated and comprehensive approach to development support in the region.

NORAD has a long history as a major donor in Tanzania supporting activities in a broad range of sectors as well as in specific regions. Bilateral assistance to Kenya was terminated in the 1980s and just recently resumed in Uganda. On the regional scale NORAD has been funding the Lake Victoria Vision Statement Facilitation Project, and now the TDA/SAP processes together with SIDA and the EC.

Authors comment: The European Union is not included in this list. Among other activities

the EU is providing significant funds for the Lake Victoria Fisheries Organisation and the

Implementation of a Fisheries Management Plan. In our opinion the EU should be

included on the list.


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Annex II Brief information on Atmospheric deposition68

Atmospheric deposition contributes heavily to nutrient loading of Lake Victoria. There is still uncertainty about more exact figures and LVEMP II will fund substantial research on the role of atmospheric deposition in Lake Victoria. The importance of atmospheric deposition as a nutrient source to aquatic ecosystems has been well documented (Schindler et al. 1976; Lewis 1981; Cole et al. 1990; Jassby et al. 1994). Nutrients, such as Nitrogen and Phosphorus can be deposited either via winds (dry deposition) or rain (wet deposition). Human activities such as burning of agricultural residues, deforestation and burning of fuel wood contribute to increased levels of nutrients in the air. The human contribution can be comparable to and even exceed natural levels. A global study69 of tropical biomass burned in the tropics revealed that savannah fires, shifting cultivation, deforestation, fuel wood use, and burning of agricultural residues contribute about 50, 24, 10, 11, and 5%, respectively of total biomass burned. Particulates may travel far distances before deposition. This means that atmospheric deposition is related both to human activities in the Lake Victoria Basin but also in the wider region. Studies of both wet and dry atmospheric deposition in Lake Victoria estimate that, on average, 13.5 ktons of P are deposited annually on the lake from the atmosphere, representing a loading rate of 1.9 kg P ha2 /year.70 Using data from previous studies on river discharge and point sources the input from atmospheric deposition represents about 55 % of total phosphorus input to the lake. This is a lower share than what is presented in the Regional Transboundary Diagnostics for Lake Victoria, 2006, see below. LVEMP II will fund substantial research on the role of atmospheric deposition in Lake Victoria. Excerpt from the Regional Transboundary Diagnostics for Lake Victoria (page 3.2.2) Most of the phosphorus (39,978 tons TP p.a.) and nitrogen (167,650 tons TN p.a.) enter the Lake by atmospheric deposition, representing 60 – 80 % of total deposition. The second most important load sources into the Lake are the rivers that contribute an estimated 9,250 of TP and 38,800 tons/y of TN (Table 3.2). Table 3.2: Relative Magnitude of Loading Sources to Lake Victoria Pollution Source TN (tons/year) %TN TP (tons/year) %TP Atmospheric Deposition 167,650 17 39,978 79 Rivers 38,800 4 9,250 18 Biological Nitrogen fixation 757,000 78 - - Point source 4,300 1 1,690 3 Total 967,750 100 50,915 100 Source: LVEMP, 2005 The total phosphorus loading is dominated by direct atmospheric deposition on the lake surface with atmospheric loading of P accounting for 60 to 80 % of total annual P loading depending on whether the low or high estimates of atmospheric P loading are used. Nitrogen loading is dominated by biological N fixation with atmospheric loading of N being the second most important source. Municipal and industrial loadings only account for a small portion of the total annual loading of N or P. Point sources are estimated to contribute about 4,300 tons/year of TN and 1,690 tons/year of TP (LVEMP, 2005). However, these localized point sources, in the immediate vicinity of coastal

68 This abstract builds mainly on the following article; R.L. Tamatamah, H.C. Duthie and R.E. Hecky. 2005. The importance of atmospheric

deposition to the phosphorus loading of Lake Victoria. (East Africa). Biogeochemistry 73

69 Hao, W. M., and M.-H. Liu (1994), Spatial and temporal distribution of tropical biomass burning, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8(4), 495–504. 70 R.L. Tamatamah, H.C. Duthie and R.E. Hecky. 2005


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urban areas and settlements and the associated biological pollution represented by faecal coliforms and potential pathogens, create unacceptable health risks and intense algal blooms when they are released into confined in the Lake Victoria bays such as Kisumu Bay, Mwanza and Inner Murchison Bay. Therefore, these point sources have first priority for reduction. Similarly, the loads from the catchment, entering at river mouths, can also have severe local impact in local gulfs, bays and some near-shore areas. For the expansive open lake, however, the atmosphere sources dominate the nutrient loading for both N and P. The high N loading rates are dependent on biological N fixation that is driven by the excess availability of P. To reduce the P loading in Lake Victoria back to natural rates, it will be necessary to reduce atmospheric P deposition and catchment P loading. Because point source loadings are a small fraction of loading at the lake-wide scale, efforts to improve land management will be necessary to reduce the non-point sources and thereby lake-wide loadings.


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Annex III Adjusted Net Savings71

Adjusted net saving, (also known as genuine saving), is a sustainability indicator building on the concepts of green national accounts. Adjusted net savings measure the true rate of savings in an economy after taking into account investments in human capital, depletion of natural resources and damage caused by pollution.

Adjusted net savings are derived from standard national accounting measures of gross national savings by making four types of adjustments. First, estimates of capital consumption of produced assets are deducted to obtain net national savings. Then current expenditures on education are added to net domestic savings as an appropriate value of investments in human capital (in standard national accounting these expenditures are treated as consumption). Next, estimates of the depletion of a variety of natural resources are deducted to reflect the decline in asset values associated with their extraction and harvest. Estimates of resource depletion are based on the calculation of resource rents. An economic rent represents the excess return to a given factor of production. Rents are derived by taking the difference between world prices and the average unit extraction or harvest costs (including a 'normal' return on capital). Finally, pollution damages are deducted. Many pollution damages are local in their effects, and therefore difficult to estimate without location-specific data. Here we estimate health damages due to urban air pollution. As for global pollution damages, the estimates include damages from carbon dioxide emissions. A note on negative adjusted net saving rates

Negative adjusted net saving rates imply that total wealth is in decline; policies leading to persistently negative adjusted net savings are policies for unsustainability. In addition to serving as an indicator of sustainability, adjusted net savings has several other advantages as a policy indicator. It presents resource and environmental issues within a framework that finance and development planning ministries can understand. It reinforces the need to boost domestic savings, and hence the need for sound macroeconomic policies. It highlights the fiscal aspects of environment and resource management, since collecting resource royalties and charging pollution taxes are basic ways to both raise development finance and ensure efficient use of the environment. And it makes the growth-

71 The text is copied from the World Bank webpage for Adjusted Net Savings: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTDATASTA/0,,contentMDK:20502368~pagePK:210058~piPK:210062~theSitePK:2875751,00.html


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environment trade-off quite explicit, since those countries planning to grow today and protect the environment tomorrow will be notable by their depressed rates of adjusted net saving. In table 4 World Bank Adjusted Net Savings have been complemented with figures on land degradation for Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Burundi Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Gross savings (%of GNI) 8,7 12,2 19,5 9,3 10,1 Consumption of fixed capital (%of GNI) 6,7 8,8 7,7 8 8,1 Education expenditure (%of GNI) 3,9 6,6 3,5 2,4 4 Energy depletion (%of GNI) 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral depletion (%of GNI) 0,1 0 0 0,4 0 Net forest depletion (%of GNI) 11,3 1,1 2,6 0 4,6 CO2 damage (%of GNI) 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2 Particulate emission damage (%of GNI) 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0 Land degradation 3,8 1,9 7,3 Adjusted net savings (%of GNI) -5,8 4,6 10,5 2,9 -6,1 Source: World Bank, 2007, Little Green Data book. Data on land degradation are taken from Republic of Rwanda, Economic Analysis of natural resources management in Rwanda, 2006, Kenya- Cohen et al, 2006, Estimating the environmental cost of soil erosion at multiple scales in Kenya using emergy synthesis, Uganda, Yaron et al, 2004, The role of environment in increasing growth and reducing poverty in Uganda.

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November 2007 - VUB