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  • Yashas Bhat

    [email protected]

    +91 22 6635 1220

    November 16, 2015

    Buy S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd Industry: Fragrance and Flavor Industry View: Overweight Initiating Coverage

    Proxy FMCG Play

    SHK is the largest domestic fragrance manufacturer with ~ 20.5% market

    share in the Indian fragrance industry and exports to over 52 countries. It is

    also an emerging flavor producer in India with ~ 2% market share and exports

    reaching 15 countries. SHK has over 4,100 customers which include leading

    national and MNC FMCG companies, blenders and producers of fragrances

    and flavors. Total manufacturing capacity is ~ 19,819 tons p.a. with 3 plants in

    India and 1 in The Netherlands. It has a research team of 18 scientists based in

    Mumbai and Barneveld. It also has 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists, evaluators and

    application executives at their 5 creation and development centers in India,

    The Netherlands and Indonesia. Its SHK, Cobra and Keva brands enjoy

    substantial brand equity.

    Strong reputation built on quality and continual R & D to help sustain

    market share.

    SHK is the 3rd

    largest fragrance player in India with a strong reputation built over 90

    years of its existence. With a solid business model, an 8,000 wide product range

    and effective sales & marketing capabilities as demonstrated by its 95 member

    robust sales team, we believe that SHK would be able to sustain its market share in

    the ~ 20 bn Indian fragrance industry which in itself has witnessed a CAGR of

    10.1% over the last 4 years.

    Low financial risk on account of reduced leverage and no significant

    capex plans.

    SHK plans to use ~ 2 bn raised in its IPO to pay off its working capital loans and

    other long term debt. Also, SHK has already completed its capex cycle for the next

    3-5 years with its Indian plants working at 35% - 45% capacity. Thus we expect that

    the repayment of significant debt post issue combined with an absence of material

    capex plans would ensure that financial risk is contained over the medium term.

    Favorable demand side dynamics continue to support the top-line.

    With a growing FMCG sector in Asia, North Africa and Middle East which constitutes

    ~ 83.7% of SHKs revenues, favorable demographics in place & customer diversity

    both in terms of low client concentration and ~ 43.5% of revenues coming from

    exports, we expect SHK to be an effective FMCG proxy.

    Potential upside offered by branded small packs and flavor

    businesses.

    SHK plans to deepen its distribution network, introduce new products and new

    application methods for its fragrance small packs business. With capacity available

    in its flavor manufacturing facility, established brand equity and a growing clientele

    currently over 400, we expect SHK to increase its market share in the flavor industry

    which has grown at a CAGR of 10.4% over the last 4 years.

    Outlook & Valuation

    We believe SHK to be a proxy FMCG play and should trade at premium valuations

    akin to FMCG companies. We initiate coverage on SHK with a BUY rating and a 15

    month price objective of 280 (40% upside)

    Stock Data

    Current Market Price () 201

    Target Price () 280

    Potential upside (%) 40

    Market Cap ( bn) 29.4

    Bloomberg SHKL IN

    Reuters NA

    Share Holding (Post-Issue)

    Fiscal YE

    YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Revenues 7,614 8,370 9,375 10,640 12,236

    Material Cost 3,991 4,656 5,109 5,852 6,840

    Others 2,252 2,521 2,834 3,181 3,579

    EBITDA 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817

    Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187

    Other Income 78 233 80 96 109

    EBIT 1,261 1,133 1,283 1,499 1,739

    Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5

    Tax 294 304 341 448 520

    PAT 791 644 796 1,045 1,214

    Key Ratios

    YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4

    EBITDA Margin 18.0% 14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 15.0%

    PAT Margin 10.3% 7.5% 8.4% 9.7% 9.8%

    P/E 36.7 45.2 36.5 27.8 23.9

    P/B 6.0 5.7 3.7 3.4 3.1

    EV/Sales 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.3

    EV/EBITDA 22.3 25.5 19.9 17.6 15.5

    ROCE 22.9% 20.6% 16.3% 17.4% 18.5%

    ROE 16.4% 12.6% 10.1% 12.2% 13.0%

    Promoter & promoter

    group 56.7%

    Non-institutional

    43.3%

    http://www.lkpsec.com/

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

    LKP Research 2

    Company Profile

    SHK is the largest domestic fragrance producer commanding ~ 20.5% market share

    in the Indian fragrance industry with over 9,700 fragrances, fragrance ingredients

    and flavors created, manufactured and supplied as on FY15. It has a long standing

    reputation developed over its 90 year history as a supplier of quality fragrances for

    use by FMCG companies in personal and home care products, food and beverage

    industries with exports to over 52 countries. It is also an emerging flavor producer in

    India with exports of its flavor products reaching 15 countries. SHK has a large and

    diverse mix of over 4,100 customers which include leading national and MNC FMCG

    companies, blenders as well as producers of fragrances and flavors. It has 4

    manufacturing facilities, 3 of which are located in India and 1 in The Netherlands, the

    total annual installed manufacturing capacity being ~ 19,819 tons. It has a dedicated

    research team of 18 scientists operating out of their facilities located in Mumbai and

    Barneveld. It also has a team of 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists, evaluators and

    application executives at their 5 creation and development centers in Mumbai,

    Bengaluru, The Netherlands and Indonesia. The SHK, Keva and Cobra brands

    through which it sells its products enjoy substantial brand equity in India.

    Brands of SHK

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

    LKP Research 3

    Proven track record, continual

    introduction of new fragrances, high

    product quality standards to help

    SHK sustain its market share

    Inelastic demand, high switching

    costs and a diversified customer

    base to support top-line

    Investment Argument

    Strong reputation built on high quality standards and continual R & D

    to help sustain market share.

    SHK is the 3rd

    largest fragrance company in India by revenue, with a market share of

    ~ 20.5%. Its competitors are mainly MNCs such as Givaudan SA, Firmenich,

    International Flavors and Fragrances Inc. and Symrise SA which collectively hold a

    57.0% market share of the global fragrance and flavor industry.

    Market Share of fragrance industry players in India.

    Source:Company, LKP Research

    SHK has always pushed its boundaries with new unique offerings to help enhance

    user experience of FMCG products containing these fragrances. In FY15 itself, SHK

    developed over 502 new fragrance and flavor compounds which have been sold

    commercially. Its research team developed 12 molecules over the last 3 years, out

    of which it has filed patent applications for 3. It combines its innovation efforts with a

    strong quality control system which enables traceability and repeatability for each

    batch of its products. This has led to a contribution of ~ 14.3% of revenues in FY15

    from product launches of the last 3 financial years.

    We believe that SHK has built a very strong reputation through delivery of quality

    products and customer satisfaction in the 90 years of its existence. With a solid

    business model, an 8,000 wide fragrance product range and strong sales &

    marketing capabilities as demonstrated by its robust sales team of 95 people from 9

    centers in India and overseas, we believe that SHK would be able to sustain its

    market share in the ~ 20 bn Indian fragrance industry which in itself has witnessed

    a CAGR of 10.1% over the last 4 years.

    Favorable demand side dynamics continue to support the top-line.

    The fragrance industry is primarily a niche market. Customers majorly include

    FMCG players who mainly use these fragrances in the manufacture of demand

    inelastic daily utilities like home and personal care products. This $ 47.3 bn Indian

    FMCG industry which has witnessed a CAGR of ~ 13.0% from FY07 to FY15 is

    expected to continue its stable growth phase on account of a large consumer base,

    shift of households to a more aspirational lifestyle and a clear uptrend in the share of

    non-food expenditure in India because of rising income levels. This coupled with

    demand inelasticity is expected to drive demand in the Indian fragrance industry.

    Givaudan 26%

    Firmenich 21%

    SHK 21%

    Symrise 10%

    IFF 7%

    Others 15%

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

    LKP Research 4

    Demand Drivers in Indian fragrance industry.

    Source:Company, LKP Research

    Fragrance manufacturers are involved from an early stage of product development

    and there is a requirement for consistency in its smell and quality. Most FMCG

    companies depend on the reliability & quality of service of fragrance producers and

    their knowledge & understanding of their products and needs. In addition to this,

    fragrance procurement has a relatively small share in overall production costs for

    FMCG goods. Thus, there is an element of customer stickiness on account of these

    factors which helps fragrance producers in long term client retention.

    Notable Clients of SHK for fragrance offerings

    SHKs fragrance business has a diversified customer base of over 3,700 customers

    consisting of leading national and MNC FMCG companies, blenders as well as

    producers of fragrances. A distinct advantage it enjoys is low customer

    concentration. Out of the net revenue from operations of ~ 8.4 bn and ~ 2.2 bn in

    FY15 and Q1FY16E, revenue from SHKs largest customer was ~ 240 Mn and ~

    88 Mn respectively. This amounts to only ~ 2.9% and ~ 3.9% of revenues from

    SHKs biggest customer in FY15 and Q1FY16E. Thus, with a low concentration risk,

    SHK has managed to effectively mitigate the adverse effect of client loss on its top-

    line and bottom-line.

    Revenues from exports form a significant part of SHKs top-line. Its revenues are

    majorly driven by FMCG and fragrance consumption in emerging markets

    comprising of Asia, Middle East and North Africa (A & MENA).

    Home Care 21%

    Personal Wash 15%

    Fabric Care 11% Beauty Care

    11%

    Hair Care 11%

    Others 31%

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

    LKP Research 5

    FY15 - Domestic and Exports Revenues FY15 - Share of A & MENA in Revenues

    Source: Company, LKP Research

    Q1FY16E -Domestic and Exports Revenues Q1FY16E- Share of A & MENA in Revenues

    Source: Company, LKP Research

    Low financial leverage and sufficient

    capacity for the medium term to keep

    financial risks subdued

    Thus, with a growing FMCG sector in India and other emerging markets, favorable

    demographics in place as well as customer diversity both in terms of low client

    concentration and significant exports, we expect SHK to be an effective FMCG

    proxy. We believe that the top-line of SHK will continue expanding at a considerable

    pace which in turn may augment profitability.

    Low financial risk on account of reduced leverage and no significant

    medium term capex plans.

    Out of the ~ 5 bn IPO issue in Oct 15, ~ 3 bn was towards a partial exit by

    Blackstone Capital and the remaining ~ 2 bn is to be used to retire working capital

    loan and other debt of SHK and its subsidiary KV Arochem. With negligible debt and

    consequent low interest burden, SHK would enjoy the benefits of reduced financial

    risks and low leverage. This would help the company sustain its high growth phase

    where its bottom-line has grown at a CAGR of 15.4% from FY11 to FY15.

    Details of manufacturing plants of SHK

    Location Annual Capacity (tons) Utilisation (%)

    Raigad, Maharashtra 10,342 44.2%

    Mumbai, Maharashtra 4,599 40.5%

    Vapi, Gujarat 2,064 35.8%

    Barnveld, The Netherlands 1,650 (metric) 77.2%

    Domestic ( 4.7 Bn )

    56.5%

    Overseas ( 3.7 Bn)

    43.5%

    A & MENA ( 7.0 Bn)

    83.7%

    Others ( 1.4 Bn)

    16.3%

    Domestic ( 1.4 Bn )

    64.1%

    Overseas ( 0.8 Bn )

    35.9%

    A & MENA ( 1.9 Bn)

    85.9%

    Others ( 0.3 Bn)

    14.1%

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

    LKP Research 6

    Branded small packs provides a

    steady stream of cash flows

    independent from FMCG industry,

    flavor business is largely untapped

    The company has 4 fragrance manufacturing facilities, 3 in India and 1 in The

    Netherlands. The manufacturing facilities in India are working at a 35-45% capacity

    as SHK has already completed its capex cycle for the next 3-5 years and is looking

    to achieve economies of scale with increased demand and production. Thus the

    repayment of significant long term debt post issue combined with an absence of

    material capex plans would ensure that financial risk is contained over the medium

    term, further cementing the case of SHK as an effective FMCG proxy.

    Potential upside offered by branded small packs and flavor

    businesses.

    SHK also has a small pack fragrance business which it operates through its Cobra

    brand. This business includes sales of its fragrance products in package sizes

    ranging from 25 gm to 25 kg to several hundred traders and resellers spread

    country-wide. The contribution of this business to the top-line is given below.

    Pack Size

    FY15 Q1FY16E

    mn % of Revenues mn % of Revenues

    25 gm - 500 gm 512 6.1 183 8.3

    500 gm- 25 kg 630 7.5 150 6.8

    Total 1,142 13.6 333 15.1

    Recognizing the potential of this revenue stream, SHK aims to deepen its

    distribution network and introduce a new sales strategy which would include a

    dedicated small pack sales team. With plans to introduce new products and new

    application methods for its fragrance products in the small packs business, we

    expect the Cobra brand to grow and support its top-line growth.

    Snapshot of Indian Flavor Industry.

    Demand Drivers in Indian flavor industry Share of market players in Indian flavor industry.

    Source:Company, LKP Research

    SHK is also an emerging player in the flavor industry with exports of this business

    reaching over 15 countries. With a diverse portfolio of 1,100 flavor products, this

    business has over 400 customers including manufacturers of beverages,

    confectionary, dairy products, bakery products, pharmaceuticals, oral hygiene, etc.

    It manufactures these products in its Raigad facility, details of which are stated

    below.

    Facility Installed Capacity Capacity Utilisation

    FY15 Q1FY16E

    Raigad, Maharashtra 1,164 34% 31%

    Beverages 41%

    Bakery 23%

    Oral Hygiene

    12%

    Others 24%

    IFF 21%

    Givaudan 19%

    Symrise 10%

    Firmenich 6%

    SHK 2%

    Others 42%

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

    LKP Research 7

    Notable Clients of SHK for flavor offerings

    SHK has a small 2% share in the Indian flavor industry which is dominated by global

    leaders. With capacity available with SHK to take advantage of an industry growing

    at a stable CAGR of 10.4% over the last 4 years, established brand equity with its

    fragrance and flavor products and a growing clientele of its flavor products currently

    over 400, we expect SHK to increase its market share in an expanding industry

    thereby further augmenting its growth.

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

    LKP Research 8

    FMCG growth, continual R & D,

    increased focus in flavor and small

    pack businesses to drive revenues.

    Financial Performance

    Revenues

    Revenues of SHK have grown at a healthy CAGR of ~ 13.0% from ~ 4.7 bn in

    FY11 to ~ 8.6 bn in FY15 driven by consistent demand for its fragrances from

    FMCG companies in India and overseas where it has a significant exposure in A &

    MENA.

    Revenues ( mn).

    Source:Company, LKP Research

    Efficient raw material sourcing

    essential to maintain and improve

    EBITDA margins

    The fortunes of SHK depend of the level of FMCG consumption in India and

    overseas. With average household incomes of SHKs target market expected to

    significantly expand with an increasing share of disposable income, a favorable

    population composition and expansion of modern retail formats, consumption of

    FMCG products is all set to follow a healthy growth trajectory.

    Also, in order to keep up with changing preferences of the ultimate consumer, SHK

    consistently invests in research and development. It spent ~ 264 mn and ~ 62mn

    in FY15 and Q1FY16E which comes to ~ 3.1% and ~ 2.8% of revenues respectively.

    We believe that a scenario of a thriving FMCG industry, continual innovation,

    introduction of new products, increased focus on developing its flavor and small

    pack fragrance businesses would benefit SHK and help its revenues grow at ~

    13.5% to ~ 10.7 bn in FY17E and ~ 15.0% to ~ 12.3 bn in FY18E respectively.

    EBITDA and EBITDA Margins

    SHK has been delivering decent EBITDA margins consistently from FY11 to FY15. It

    witnessed a fall in margins from ~ 18.0% in FY14 to ~ 14.3% in FY15 primarily

    because of increased material cost which went up from ~ 52.4% of operational

    revenues in FY14 to ~ 55.6% in FY15. It sources ~ 40%-45% of raw materials from

    countries like Indonesia, Germany, Brazil and US.

    EBITDA ( mn).and EBITDA Margins (%)

    Source:Company, LKP Research

    4,670

    5,740 6,677

    7,692 8,603

    9,455

    10,736

    12,345

    -

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    838 1,044 1,180 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817

    18.2% 18.3% 17.7% 18.0%

    14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 15.0%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1,800

    2,000

    FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd

    LKP Research 9

    Lower depreciation and negligible

    interest burden FY17E onwards to

    bolster PAT and PAT margins

    Given the nature of fragrance and flavor industry, quality and specifications of raw

    materials used in its products is of high importance. With long standing relationships

    with its suppliers, we believe that SHK can economically source its raw materials.

    Efficient material costs coupled with effective control of employee benefits and other

    expenses are essential for SHKs sustainability in its margins. We expect that SHK

    would earn absolute EBITDA and margins of ~ 1.6 bn and ~ 15.1% in FY16E and

    ~ 1.8 bn and ~ 15.0% in FY17E respectively.

    PAT and PAT Margins

    PAT and PAT margins for SHK stood at ~ 791 mn & ~ 10.3% in FY14 and ~ 644

    mn & ~ 7.5% in FY15 respectively. This is the direct effect of an increased burden of

    higher material costs and depreciation post significant investments in fixed assets up

    to FY14. With SHKs capex cycle completed for the medium term and negligible

    interest burden after repayment of debt post issue, we expect PAT and PAT margins

    to steadily improve to ~ 1.0 bn & ~ 9.7% in FY17E and ~ 1.2 bn & ~ 9.8% in

    FY18E respectively.

    PAT ( mn).and PAT Margins (%)

    Source:Company, LKP Research

    Peer Group Analysis

    SHK has no real domestic peer as the Indian fragrance and flavor industry is

    dominated by a few global players like Givaudan SA, Firmenich, Symrise SA, IFF

    etc. Comparative price ratios of SHK with its global peers are given below.

    Particulars SHK Givaudan Symrise

    Country India Switzerland Germany

    Bloomberg SHKL IN GIVN:VX SY1:GR

    P/E 36.1 31.6 35.7

    P/S 3.4 3.8 3.1

    P/B 3.7 4.9 5.2

    315 412 616 791 644 796 1,045 1,214

    6.7% 7.2%

    9.2%

    10.3%

    7.5%

    8.4%

    9.7% 9.8%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

    LKP Research 10

    Risks & Concerns

    Most fragrance and flavor companies are now placing greater focus on emerging markets of Asia- Pacific, South America, Middle East and Africa due

    to growing urbanization and changing lifestyles which is expected to directly

    benefit FMCG companies and their fragrance & flavor suppliers. A trend of

    increasing consolidation is also being witnessed in these emerging economies

    with local established players being viewed as attractive acquisition targets.

    This is leading to intense competition in these markets which can adversely

    affect companies like SHK, with global players equipped with financial strength

    and international expertise. This can be witnessed by the fact that Givaudan SA

    has planned to invest FF 55 mn ( 3.7 bn) in a new manufacturing facility in

    Pune, Maharashtra which is expected to be operational by FY18E.

    SHK earns its revenues primarily from the FMCG sector. Thus, the fortunes of SHK are tied to the prospects of this industry inspite of SHK enjoying a low

    customer concentration. With events like the Nestle Maggi controversy having

    the potential to shake up entire product categories across the FMCG industry,

    this dependency may play out against SHK, especially where it is looking at its

    flavor industry to give impetus to its growth prospects.

    SHK has 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists and 17 skilled equipment operators. The company depends on a few specialized employees, which may be poached by

    its global counterparts, with better remuneration and the MNC appeal. SHKs

    failure to acquire and retain right talent may adversely affect product

    consistency, quality and its ability to introduce new fragrances and flavors.

    ~ 43.5% of its revenues come from exports, and ~ 40.0%-45.0% of raw materials have been from suppliers outside India, exposing the company to

    significant forex risks.

    Outlook & Valuation

    We believe SHK to be a proxy FMCG play and should trade at premium valuations

    akin to FMCG companies. We initiate coverage on SHK with a BUY rating and a 15

    month price objective of 280 (40% upside)

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

    LKP Research 11

    Financials (consolidated)

    Income statement

    YE Mar ( Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Net Revenues 7,614 8,370 9,375 10,640 12,236

    Total Materials Cost 3,991 4,656 5,109 5,852 6,840

    Employee Benefits 1,029 1,150 1,288 1,436 1,597

    Others 1,222 1,371 1,547 1,745 1,982

    EBITDA 1,370 1,193 1,431 1,607 1,817

    EBITDA Margin (%) 18.0% 14.3% 15.3% 15.1% 14.9%

    Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187

    Other Income 78 233 80 96 109

    EBIT 1,261 1,133 1,283 1,499 1,739

    EBIT Margin (%) 16.4% 13.2% 13.6% 14.0% 14.1%

    Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5

    PBT 1,085 947 1,138 1,493 1,735

    PBT Margin (%) 14.1% 11.0% 12.0% 13.9% 14.1%

    Tax 294 304 341 448 520

    PAT 791 644 796 1,045 1,214

    PAT Margin (%) 10.3% 7.5% 8.4% 9.7% 9.8%

    Diluted EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4

    Cash Flow

    YE Mar ( Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    PBT 1,085 947 1,138 1,493 1,735

    Depreciation 188 293 228 204 187

    Finance Cost 175 186 146 6 5

    Other income (78) (233) (80) (96) (109)

    Change in Working Capital 105 6 (2,438) (671) (700)

    Less: Tax (294) (304) (341) (448) (520)

    CF from Operations (a) 1,181 896 (1,348) 488 597

    Capital Expenditure (548) (169) (107) (125) (125)

    Goodwill on Consolidation (121) 48 - - -

    Change in /Investments 412 2 (25) (25) -

    Other income 78 233 80 96 109

    CF from Investing (b) (179) 114 (52) (54) (17)

    Free Cash Flow (a+b) 1,002 1,009 (1,400) 434 580

    Issue of Equity Shares - - 2,100 - -

    Long Term Debt 214 (298) (361) (6) (6)

    Interest paid (175) (186) (146) (6) (5)

    Amalgamation adjustment (782) - - - -

    Payment of Dividend (150) (149) (187) (260) (361)

    DDT (25) (31) (37) (52) (72)

    CF from Financing (c) (919) (664) 1,369 (324) (444)

    Net Change (a+b+c) 83 345 (31) 110 136

    Closing Cash and CE 414 760 729 839 975

    Source: Company, LKP Research

    Balance sheet

    YE Mar ( Mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    SOURCES OF FUNDS

    Equity Share Capital 132 1,323 1,446 1,446 1,446

    Preference Share Capital 9 92 - - -

    Reserves and Surplus 4,669 3,688 6,402 7,135 7,917

    Total Net Worth 4,810 5,103 7,848 8,582 9,363

    Total Long Term Debt 689 391 29 23 17

    Total Liabilities 5,499 5,493 7,877 8,605 9,380

    APPLICATION OF FUNDS

    Fixed Asset 2,189 2,065 1,944 1,865 1,804

    Goodwill on consolidation 828 780 780 780 780

    Investments 2 0 25 50 50

    Others 213 286 329 353 373

    Current Assets

    Cash and Bank 414 760 729 839 975

    Inventories 2,788 3,175 3,552 4,050 4,705

    Sundry Debtors 1,794 1,947 2,183 2,478 2,850

    Loans & Advances 283 233 322 376 425

    Others 4 42 51 45 41

    Current Liabilities and Provisions

    Trade Payables 879 1,016 1,127 1,277 1,518

    Short Term Borrowings 1,149 1,745 61 13 -

    Other Current Liabilities 739 738 558 572 628

    Provisions 249 296 292 370 476

    Net Current Assets 2,267 2,362 4,799 5,556 6,373

    Total Assets 5,499 5,493 7,877 8,605 9,380

    Key Ratios

    YE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

    Per Share Data (Rs)

    EPS 5.5 4.5 5.5 7.2 8.4

    CEPS 6.8 6.5 7.1 8.6 9.7

    BVPS 33.3 35.3 54.3 59.3 64.7

    DPS 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.5

    Growth Ratios(%)

    Revenues from operations 14.3% 9.9% 12.0% 13.5% 15.0%

    EBITDA 16.1% -12.9% 19.9% 12.3% 13.1%

    PAT 28.5% -18.6% 23.7% 31.2% 16.2%

    Valuation Ratios (X)

    P/E 36.7 45.2 36.5 27.8 23.9

    P/CEPS 29.7 31.0 28.4 23.3 20.8

    P/B 6.0 5.7 3.7 3.4 3.1

    EV/Sales 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.3

    EV/EBITDA 22.3 25.5 19.9 17.6 15.5

    FCF/EBITDA 0.7 0.8 (1.0) 0.3 0.3

    Profitability Ratios (%)

    ROCE 22.9% 20.6% 16.3% 17.4% 18.5%

    ROE 16.4% 12.6% 10.1% 12.2% 13.0%

    Dividend payout 19.0% 23.2% 23.4% 24.8% 29.7%

    Dividend Yield 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2%

  • S.H.Kelkar &Co. Ltd.

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