NOT IN ANY BACK YARD ELIMINATING POWER PLANTS FROM THE SOUTH BRONX

ThomasStorckM.S.SustainableEnvironmentalSystems

ProgramsforSustainablePlanningandDevelopmentPrattInstitute

DemonstrationofProfessionalCompetence

May16th,2016

Advisor:AlecAppelbaumTechnicalAdvisor:CharlesKomanoff

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ABSTRACT

In2001,theNewYorkPowerAuthority(NYPA)installedfour47MWgas-firedturbinesinPort

Morris,TheBronx,aneighborhoodalreadysufferingfromsomeoftheworstasthmaandpovertyrates

inthecountry.Indoingso,NYPAcutregulatorycorners,exploitedloopholesandminimizedpublic

participation.Theseturbinescontinuetobere-permittedeveryfiveyears.TochallengeNYPA’sclaim

thatthesegasplantsareenvironmentallybeneficial,environmentaljusticecoalitionSouthBronxUnite

reachedouttoenergypolicy-analystandenvironmentalactivistCharlesKomanoffforadviceonhow

thesefourturbinescouldbereplacedwithcleanenergyorothercarbon-freesolutions.Thisreport

describeshowtheStatemanagedtoinstallpowerplantsinenvironmentaljusticecommunitiesby

underminingthelawsputinplacetoprotectpeoplefrompollutinginfrastructurebeforeevaluatingthe

capabilitiesofselectedalternativestoreplaceNYPA’sturbines,includingoffshorewind,solarPVand

demand-sidemanagement.

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INTRODUCTION

In2000,NewYorkStateofficialsagreedtoinstalltengas-firedturbinesacrossfourboroughsin

NewYorkCity(Parker,2003).TheBronxwasburdenedwithfourunits,morethanwereinstalledinany

otherborough,allconcentratedinPortMorris,acommunityalreadysufferingfromadisproportionate

share of environmental burdens andhome to someof the highest asthma rates in theUnited States

(Parker, 2003;Maantay, 2007). Leading theprojectwas TheNewYorkPowerAuthority (NYPA)1,who

met their self-imposeddeadline2byexploiting regulatory loopholes,avoidingadequateenvironmental

review and minimizing public participation, leaving communities feeling offended, undervalued and

discriminatedagainst (Sze,2007).Thepublicwas led tobelieve the turbineswould lastnomore than

three years, but local environment justice groups continue to fight for their removal (NewYork State

Assembly[NYSA],2001;Mark-Viverito,2015).

Inresponsetoconcernsfromresidentsabouttheirneighborhood’spoorairqualityexacerbated

bytheseplants,NYPAarguesthattheirgasturbinesarethecleanestandmostefficientintheCityand

that their removal would increase citywide pollution by forcing older, dirtier generators to meet

electricity demands instead (New York State Department of Environmental Conservation [NYSDEC],

2015).

My research for this report was gathered after South Bronx Unite, an environmental justice

coalitionofresidents,organizationsandalliesworkingtoprotectthefutureoftheSouthBronx,reached

out to energy policy-analyst and environmental activist Charles Komanoff3 for advice. Their question:

How could these plants be replaced with clean energy or other non-polluting strategies? (Johnson,

1TheNewYorkPowerAuthorityisastate-ownedutilityandthelargeststatepowerorganizationintheUnitedStates(NYPAwebsite).2June1st,20013CharlesKomanoffistheDirectorofbothKomanoffEnergyAssociates(www.komanoff.net)andtheCarbonTaxCenter(www.carbontax.org).Hehasservedasanexpertwitnessonissuesofenergypolicyandeconomics,includingConEdison’sEastRiverPowerPlantexpansionin2000.

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2016).Underadvisement fromMr.Komanoff, Ihaveprepared this report to serveSouthBronxUnite

andotherenergyandenvironmental justicegroupsinNewYorkCitybyidentifyinginterventionpoints

and exploring renewable energy and demand-side management strategies for replacing the four

turbinesinPortMorris,TheBronx.

PORTMORRIS,THEBRONX–SHOULDERINGTHEBURDENFORNEWYORKCITY

Withinthepoorestcongressionaldistrictinthecountryandthesouthernmostpeninsulaofthe

Bronx lies Port Morris, a minority neighborhood bordered by as many rivers as it is by highways

(Mueller,2016).Unfortunatelyforitsresidents,theareasalongthewaterfrontonceusedforrecreation

havesincebeenreplaced(andinsomecasesdestroyed)byindustry(Walshe,2015;Johnson,2016).The

warehouses,distributioncentersandwastetransferstationsthatnowlinetheneighborhood’sedgeare

extremely truck-intensive, accounting for over 15,000 diesel trucks trips a day through local streets

(Crean,2015; Johnson,2016).Nearlyone-thirdofNewYorkCity’ssolidwaste ishandled inTheSouth

Bronx (Institute, 2002). The City’s waste is no longer shipped away on barges – instead, it gets

transferred from large trucks to even larger trucks, burdening the community with pollutants from

diesel exhaust, the stench of garbage, and the danger and noise brought by their intrusion into

residentialareas(Crean,2015;Johnson,2016).

Consequently,SouthBronxresidentsbreathesomeoftheworstairincountry.Halfofthearea’s

pre-Kindergartento8thgradestudentsattendschoolslessthantwoblocksawayfromahighwayortruck

route (Institute, 2009). The asthmahospitalization rate for this same age group is three times higher

than the citywide average (King, 2015). Based on the findings from Institute (2009), New York

University’sSchoolofMedicineconcludedthatairpollutionreductionpoliciesshouldbeimplemented,

such as support for public transportation and creatingmore green space. Flying in the face of these

recommendations, City and State governments recently invested over $100 million to build a new

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operationscenterforFreshDirect,amajortruckingcompany,ononeofthelastremainingopenspaces

on PortMorris’swaterfront (NewYork State, 2012). The facility is expected to add a thousandmore

trucktripsaday(Johnson,2016).“EvenifallofFreshDirect’strucksranonwater,”notedJohnson(2016)

ofSouthBronxUnite,theaddedtrafficwillcauseothervehiclestoidlealongthehighwayssurrounding

theneighborhood,exacerbatingthepollutionfromexistingmobilesources.

Port Morris has very little green space, as demonstrated on this year’s annual Earth Day

Environmental Justice Waterfront Bike Tour lead by Mychal Johnson. Pulaski Park, their largest

recreationalspace,ismadeofconcrete,andthewaterfrontareassurroundedtheneighborhoodareno

longer accessible to thepublic. The toureventuallybroughtus towhatused tobe theEast132ndSt

pier,whereSouthBronxUnite’sDannyChervoni–alocalresidentfor60years–recalledhowvaluable

thedestinationwasforthecommunityandhowhewouldgotheretoswimasayoungkid.Thepierwas

destroyed in1989whena severedgas linecausedadeadlyexplosion,explained Johnson.Peoplecan

stillmanagetoreachthewater.Thatafternoonagroupofmenwereouttherefishing,butonlyafter

slipping throughabarbedwire fencenowblocking theoldpier’s remains.TheHellGatepowerplant,

whichincludestwoofNYPA’sturbines,isdirectlyadjacenttothepier.

ELECTRICITYSYSTEMS–NEWYORK

PeakDemand

Electricitydemandcanbecategorizedasbaseloadorpeakload.AsdescribedinFox-Penner

(2014),demandlevelsfluctuatethroughouttheday,butbaseloadistheamountthatisalwaysneeded

–thelowestpointonthedemandcurve.Peakloadincludesthepartthatfluctuatesbetweenthebase

loadandthehighestpointofthedemandcurve(seebelow).OverthecourseofayearinNewYork,

peakloadmayreachitshighestpointonaveryhotdayinthesummer,orafteraseriesofexceptionally

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hotandhumiddays(Fox-Penner,2014;Audin,2016).Thismomentiscalledpeakdemand,and

determineshowmuchgenerationcapacitywillberequiredforthatyear.

PeakingPlants

Fox-Penner(2014)describeshowpowerplantsthatservethebaseloadaredesignedtooperate

continuouslyathighoutputandhavelowincrementalcostsperunitofelectricity.Asdemandincreases,

intermediatepowerplantsmustbeturnedontoprovidepowerforconsumers,increasingthecostper

unitofelectricityforconsumers.Whendemandapproachespeaklevels,thelastpowerplantsthatmay

needtobeturnedonaretypicallythemostexpensiveandaredesignedtorunnomorethanafew

hundredhoursayear.Theseareknownaspeakingplants,or“peakers,”andtypicallyusenaturalgasto

runcombustionturbinessimilartojetengines(Fox-Penner,2014).

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CapacityRequirements

Thelevelofinstalledgenerationcapacityrequiredtomaintainreliability4isdeterminedbypeak

demand.NewYorkStatehasamarginoferrorsupplyrequirementof18%ofprojectedpeakdemand,a

cushionbetweentheState’speakdemandandtotalcapacity(Parker,2003;Gold,2015).Becauseofthe

limited capacity of transmission lines from outside its borders, New York City has a separate

requirement togenerateat least80%of itspeakelectricdemandwithin the fiveboroughs (NewYork

CityEnergyPolicyTaskForce [NYCEPTF],2004).Themaximumcapacitiesof transmission lines feeding

into the City are: 3,700 MW via Westchester; 1,000 MW via New Jersey; 300 MW via Long Island

(NYCEPTF,2004).Newlinesaredifficulttositebecauseofpopulationdensity,highpropertyvaluesand

theextendedtimetoreceivepermitapprovals(Sze,2007).Becauseitspeakdemandishigherthanwhat

theselinescancarry,NewYorkCityisconsideredaloadpocket(NYCEPTF,2004).

THEPORTMORRISTURBINES

The turbines in the SouthBronx are simple-cycle gas turbines, often characterized aspeaking

plants.EachisownedandoperatedbytheNewYorkPowerAuthorityanddesignedtoproduceupto47

MWofelectricityatambienttemperaturesbelow100°F,withanetoutputcapabilityof44MW(3MW

areneededforon-siteoperations)(Parker,2003).Siteswithdualgeneratorshaveatotalcapacityof94

MWwith a net output capability of 88MW. The four units are located on two sites, both along the

waterfront in PortMorris. The Hell Gate Plant houses two units and can be found at Locust Avenue

betweenEast132ndandEast134thStreets(Robbins,2016).Afewblocksawayontheoppositesideof

theRandall’s IslandConnectoroverpass, twounits form theHarlemRiverYardPlant (Robbins, 2016).

4NewYorkStateReliabilityCouncil(2016)definesreliabilityusingthefollowingtwoterms:1)Adequacy–“theabilityoftheelectricsystemstosupplytheaggregateelectricaldemandandenergyrequirementsoftheircustomersatalltimes,takingintoaccountscheduledandreasonablyexpectedunscheduledoutagesofsystemelements”and2)Security–“theabilityoftheelectricsystemstowithstandsuddendisturbancessuchaselectricshortcircuitsorunanticipatedlossofsystemelements.”

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TheywereinstalledinJune2001,alongwithsix

othergasturbinesspreadacrossfourboroughs

(see right): two units were installed in Sunset

Park, Brooklyn at 23rd Street and 3rd Avenue;

one inWilliamsburg, Brooklyn atNorth 1st and

RiverStreets;twoat42-30VernonBoulevardin

Long Island City, Queens; and one at 143

Edgewater Street in Staten Island.An eleventh

unitwasalsoinstalledoutsideofNewYorkCity

inBrentwood,LongIsland(UPROSE,2001).

THESITINGPROCESS

ThefollowingsectiondescribeshowNewYorkStateofficialsinstalledgasturbinesinNewYork

Citybyexploitingloopholesandunderminingthelawsputinplacetoprotectthoseaffected.Thestory

illustrateshowpowerfulgroupsareabletonotonlybendthelawstotheirconvenience,butalsoinvent

theirownrationalitybydeterminingwhatinformationispresentedasfact.

Attheendofsummer2000,theNewYorkStatePublicServiceCommission(PSC)5,theNewYork

PowerAuthority(NYPA)andtheNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO)6forecasteda315MW

supplyshortfallforsummer2001(Parker,2003).Withinamonth,NYPApurchased11simple-cyclegas

turbinesfromGeneralElectricfor$510milliondollars(NYCA,2001).ThetenturbinesforNewYorkCity

5TheNewYorkPSCoverseesandregulatesallutilitiesintheState,andisresponsibleforensuringanadequatesupplyofelectricity(NYCA,2001).6NYISOcontrolstheenergymarketsinNewYorkState.Theyacceptbidsfrompowerproducesonaday-aheadbasisanddecidewhichplantsturnonandinwhatorder(NYCEPTF,2004).

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totaled440MW,andNYPAwasintentoninstallingthembyJune1st,2001(Parker,2003).Thefirstwave

of the California Electricity Crisis had hit only a few months prior, and the State used the fear of

California-style blackouts to justify moving these generators through the siting process as fast as

possible(Johnson,2001).TheprojectwascalledPowerNow!,appropriateforthespeedatwhichitwas

completed(Parker,2003).

State Assembly members were skeptical about NYPA’s intentions. They suspected the

PowerNow! project was primarily motivated to lower electricity prices7, not to meet reliability

requirements (NYSA, 2001). At a public hearing in March 2001, NYPA President Eugene Zeltmann

responded to these accusation and assured Assembly members that the project is an emergency

measure toensure reliability and that the turbineswill only runduringon-peakperiods: “inOctober,

November,through…March,April,…theseunitssimplywillnotrun.Andthey’renotgoingtoruninthe

evening in the summer timeseitherbecause that isnotwhat thepeak load is” (NYSA,2001).But the

datashowsotherwise.During2015,only45%oftheannualloadgeneratedbythefourturbinesinthe

South Bronx was during peak periods8 (Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2016). At a public

hearing,PresidentZeltmannadmitted that thegeneratorswouldbebid into themarketeachday,no

matterwhatthecapacityneed(NYPA,2001).

One tactic by which the PowerNow! Project saved time was dodging environmental review.

According to New York State’s then primary law dealing with electric power plant siting, known as

ArticleXof thePublicServiceLaw,environmental review isalwaysrequiredwhensitinganewpower

plant(Parker,2003).Generatorsinexcessof80MWwerepursuanttoArticleXwhilethosewithlower

capacity,toSEQRA(Parker,2003).InthecaseofNYPA’sunits,siteswithasingleturbine(47MW)were

7NYSA(2001),p.203:“CHAIRMANBRODSKY:Thisisaboutprice,andthisisabouttheadministration’sattempttodealwiththepriceissuebyusingastatewidesubsidytodealwiththepricespikeinNewYorkCity”.BecausetheconstructionandoperatingcostsofNYPA’sgeneratorsarepickedupbytheState’sratepayers,theelectricityproducescanbebidatalowerprices,causingotherpowerproducerstolowertheircoststoremaincompetitive.8MaythroughSeptember,12:00pm–6:00pm

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tobereviewedunderSEQRAandsiteswithdualturbines(94MW),suchastheonesnowoccupyingPort

Morris, would have been subject to Article X, a more rigorous review process (Sze, 2007). NYPA

petitionedtheSitingBoard9,askingtoavoidArticleXbyagreeingtoa“legallybindingcommitment”not

to run the units above 79.9MW (NYSA, 2001). But Parker (2003) points out thatwhen stating their

decision,theSitingBoardchangedthestatutorylanguagefrom“generatingcapacity”to“netgenerating

capacity”. Since 3MWout of each turbine’s capacity is used for onsite operations, the commitment

agreedtobyNYPAactuallyallowseachsitetogenerateupto85.9MW,aviolationofthelawaccording

toArticleX.TheSitingBoardagreed,thustriggeringenvironmentalreviewunderSEQRAforallofNYPA’s

gasturbines(Parker,2003).

NYPAwasthe leadagencyfor itsenvironmentalreviewprocess,andfourdaysaftertheSiting

Board’sArticleXwaiver,theyissuedanegativedeclaration,thusremovingtheobligationtopreparean

environmental impact statement (EIS) (Sze, 2007). To determine whether the turbines would

disproportionally affect low-incomeorminority communities, theStateDepartmentof Environmental

Conservation (DEC), the agency responsible for issuing air emissions permits, requested that NYPA

prepare an “environmental justice” analysis along with its permit application (Sze, 2007). The

environmental consulting firmAKRF prepared an assessment, butNYPA only released it after several

Freedomof InformationActrequestsandone lawsuit ledbyNewYorkLawyersforthePublic Interest

(NYLPI)(Silvercup,2001;Sze,2007).Whenreleased,NYPA(2001)revealedthatalloftheareaschosen

byNYPAhadhigherpoverty ratesandproportionsofminorities than thecitywideaverage.NewYork

City averageswere18.9%below thepoverty line, 28.8%black and23.7% Latino. By comparison, The

Harlem River Yard site’s were 51% in poverty, 36.9% black and 64.7% Latino. At Hell Gate, the

populationwas44.1%inpoverty,48.5%blackand52.3%Latino(NYPA,2001).

9TheNewYorkStateBoardonElectricGenerationSitingandtheEnvironment,or“SitingBoard”,iswithintheDepartmentofPublicServicebutincludesmembersfrommultipleNewYorkStateagencies.TheBoardisresponsibleforauthorizingpowerplantsitings(NYSA,2001).

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Localcommunitiesandtheiralliesfeltangry,takenadvantageofanddiscriminatedagainst,but

the State’s secretive, top-down approach made it difficult for the public to participate in the siting

process.Sze(2007)describesthesequenceofeventsasfollows:TwodaysafterNYPAissuedanegative

declaration for the project, on the day before Thanksgiving, the NYS Department of Environmental

Conservation (DEC) issued draft air permits for public review. The DEC eliminated the possibility for

activists to support their allies atmeetings in other boroughs by scheduling the Bronx, Brooklyn and

Queenspublichearingsonthesameday,at thesametime.TheSitingBoard,at therequestofNYPA,

shortened thepublic commentperiod from twenty-one to tendays. Further compromising thepublic

reviewprocesswasthedecisiontosetthepubliccommentsdeadlineforDecember22nd,2000,three

daysbeforeChristmas.Withintwoweeks,NYPAhadslippedthroughtheenvironmentalreviewprocess

andwereissuedregulatoryairpermits(Sze,2007).

Thosecommunitiesthatdidspeakoutagainsttheproject’sfast-trackedapproachwereaccused

ofbeingselfishforputtingcitizensinharm’swayiftheplantswerenotinstalledbyNYPA’sself-imposed

deadline:“Everyday’sdelaywillpushNewYorkCityonedayclosertoCalifornia,”thePowerAuthority

saidinawrittenstatementafteracoalitionofneighborhoodandenvironmentalgroupsrepresentedby

New York Lawyers for the Public Interest (NYLPI) sued the Pataki administration for illegally plowing

through siting regulations (Johnson, 2001). When Judge Lawrence Knipel ruled in favor of NYPA,

McKinley(2001)reportedthattheAuthority’sspokesmanMichaelPetraliacalledthedecisionarelief,so

that“wecankeepthelightsonforthepeopleofNewYorkCity.”MayorRudolphGiulianirespondedto

therulingwithevenmoregravity:“Peopleactuallydie,”hewarnedopponentsoftheplantsduringhis

weeklyradioaddress.“Youhavearisktohumanlife.Soweshouldnotallowthat.”(McKinley,2001).

MayorGiuliani’sstatementsimplythattherewerenoalternativestoensuringreliabilitybesides

building these plants and that therewas no doubtNew York Citywas facing an otherwise inevitable

crisis. But because NYPA removed their obligation to complete an environmental impact statement,

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theywerenotrequiredtoprovetheestimated315MWsupplyshortfall(Sze,2007).Opponentsofthe

project,communitymembersandelectedofficialsalike,citedevidencethattheState’snumbersdidnot

addup (NYSA,2001).One reason: the State ignored the valueofpeakdemand reduction inensuring

reliability. By January 2001, the Public Service Commission had increased funding for the System

BenefitsCharge(SBC),aprogramoffermonetaryincentivesforenergyefficiency,from$78.1millionto

$150million(SBC,2014).TheNewYorkStateEnergyResearchandDevelopmentAuthority(NYSERDA)

projectedtheseincentiveswouldreducetheState’speakdemandby250–300MWbysummer2001

(NYSA,2001).Whenaskedatapublichearingwhythedemandreductionprojectionswerenotincluded

in their capacity assessment, PSC Director Howard Tarler explained that demand side management

projects are unreliable because they depend largely on consumer behavior. Unsatisfied, State

Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, then Chairman of the Committee on Environmental Conservation,

responded,“Icouldunderstandyoudon’twanttoputthefull250or300in.Icannotunderstandzero.”

(NYSA,2001).

TheState’sassessmentofavailablegenerationcapacitywasquestionedaswell.AshokGupta,

energyanalystfortheNaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil,conductedadetailedanalysischallengingthe

315MW shortfall and found 527MW10 of available capacity not included in PSC’s estimates (Parker,

2003). The PSC and NYPA produced no equivalent analysis (Parker, 2003). Although previous power

plant siting lawshadstricterneeds requirements,ArticleX requirednoanalysisofneed for increased

megawattsaslongasnewgeneratorscontributetocompetition(Sze,2007).

MayorGiuliani’sdismissal of the consequencesof air pollutionandgreenhousegasemissions

highlights a much deeper issue surrounding energy policy – that of the unequal attention given to

spectacularandunspectaculartime.Asfarasthepublicwastold,thisprojectwasnecessarytoavoidan

10Theadditionalcapacitycamefromthefollowingfacilities:Astoria(170MW),increasedcapacityofexistingsources(157MW),aKeySpansite(40MW),LindenCogeneration(70MW),ConEdUnit10(60MW)andanincreasedcapacityofConEdGowanus(30MW)(Parker,2003).

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otherwiseinevitablecatastrophiceventthatcouldcostNewYorkStatemillionsorbillionsordollarsand

possiblyhumanlives(Sze,2007).Butthedeathanddestructionrelatedtoclimatechangeisframedin

much longer terms, with much more complex causal relationships, that it typically goes unnoticed,

untreatedormisunderstood.Similarly,thoughonasmallerscale,victimsof localizedairpollutionalso

sufferfromthismisunderstandingoflong-termandcumulativedamage(Nixon,2011).

ENERGYPOLICYTODAY

Despiteattemptstominimizedebate,environmentaljusticegroupssuchasCommunitiesUnited

for Responsible Energy (CURE), Organization of Waterfront Neighborhoods (OWN) and UPROSE

managed to insert themselves into theprocess andwere able to spark apublic debate about energy

justice (Sze, 2007). In June 2001, the Brooklyn Appellate Court ruled in favor of community groups’

appealofJudgeKnipel’srulingandorderedNYPAtocompleteanenvironmentalimpactstudy,andone

thatincludedananalysisoftheplants’PM2.511output(UPROSE,2001).

Althoughtheplantsarestillinoperation,asSze(2007)pointsout,theeffortsbyenvironmental

groupshadsignificantinfluenceonenergypolicyandcontributedtopublicskepticismaboutnewpower

plantconstruction.Someofthegroups leadingthefightagainstNYPA’splants in2000and2001were

appointedin2003toMayorBloomberg’sEnergyTaskForce,includingCURE,GailSuchmanofNYLPIand

Ashok Gupta of NRDC (NYCEPTF, 2004). The task force was formed after another blackout – the

northeastinAugust2003–butthistimethoseinvolvedwereabletoinsertintothereportstrategiesof

energyconservationandgreenbuildingdesign (Sze,2007).According toCURE, itwas the first“public

recognitionthatthereisnohystericalenergycrisis”(Sze,2007).

11Fineparticulatematterwithadiametersmallerthan2.5microns.PM2.5issmallenoughtotravelintorespiratorytractsandreachthelungsandcanworsenmedicalconditionssuchasasthmaandheartdisease(NewYorkPowerAuthority[NYPA],2002).

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Energypolicy inNewYorklooksremarkablydifferent in2016thanitdidfifteenyearsprior.At

thestatelevel,GovernorAndrewCuomo’snewCleanEnergyStandardwillestablishamandateof50%

cleanelectricityinNewYorkby2030(NewYorkState[NYS],2016).Hiscurrentenergyplan,Reforming

theEnergyVision(REV),focusesprimarilyonincreasingrenewables,minimizingfossilfueldependency,

reducingpeakdemandandprotectingthehealthandwelfareofNewYorkers(NYS,2016).MayorBillde

Blasio’sgoals focuson lessdependencyonfossil fuelsaswell.His2015updatetoMayorBloomberg’s

greenhousegasemissionreductionplansetatargetof80%12by2050(Mayor’sOffice,2015).Thatsame

year,theMayorannouncedhisplantopowerallmunicipalbuildings,mostofwhicharenowservedby

NYPA,with100%renewableelectricity(OfficeoftheMayor,2016).

ALTERNATIVES

Thefollowingsectionisanassessmentofaselectfewrenewableenergyanddemandside

managementstrategiesandeach’sabilitytoreplacethemegawatts(MW)andmegawatt-hours(MWh)

nowprovidedbythefourturbinesintheBronx.NYPA’spowerplantsarevalueintwoways:1)the

electricitytheygenerateand2)theircontributiontoareliablesupplysystem.

Theamountofelectricityprovidedcanbeexpressedasmegawatt-hours(MWh),andequalsthe

grossloadminustheloadneededforon-siteoperations.Thecombinedannualelectricityproduction

fromthefourturbineshasbeenfairlyconsistentacrossthefourmostrecentyears13,averagingabout

100,000MWh,or100gigawatt-hours(GWh)peryear(EPA,2016).Theircontributiontoareliable

electricitysystemcanbeexpressedintermsoftheircapacity.Together,theyprovide160MW14thatis

availableifweneedit.Myassessmentofalternativeswillusethesevalues–160MWand100GWh–as

targetsfortheirreplacement.

12Reducedfrom2005levels.132012-201514Eachsiteiscappedat79.9MW(Parker,2003)

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Beforegoingintothesecalculations,it’simportanttounderstandtwoconcepts:capacityfactor

and capacity value. Capacity factor means what a resource is actually producing versus its potential

productionaccording to its capacity (Komanoff,2016a).Capacity value is importantwhenconsidering

variableresourceslikewindandsolar.Unlikeagasturbine,thewindandthesuncannotbeturnedon

when needed, so an equal amount of capacity of one of these variable resources does contribute

equallytotheState’sreliabilityrequirements(NewYorkIndependentSystemOperator[NYISO],2010).

Capacityvaluethencanbeusedasaconversionfactor.

OffshoreWind

On March 16, 2016 the Department of Interior (DOI) announced that the Bureau of Ocean

EnergyManagement(BOEM)hasdesignatedforoffshorewinddevelopmenta127squaremileareaoff

LongIsland,13milesfromtheCityofLongBeach(BureauofOceanEnergyManagement[BOEM],2016).

TheDOIbrokethenewsfollowinganannouncementthattheObamaadministrationhaddecidednotto

allowoilorgasdrillingoffthemid-andsouthAtlanticcoast(U.S.,2016).Thedesignatedareaisbased

onaproposal in2011fromtheNewYorkPowerAuthority tobuilda700MWwindfarm inthesame

area using 194 turbines, each with a potential to generate 3.6 MW (BOEM 2016). “New York has

tremendousoffshorewindpotential,”accordingtoSecretaryoftheInteriorSallyJewell(BOEM,2016).

By someestimates,anoffshorewind farm this size couldprovideelectricity forup to300,000homes

(Schlossberg,2016).

AccordingtoNYISO(2010),thecapacityvalueofanoffshorewindfarminNewYorkisbetween

0.2and0.3,meaning1MWofwindcapacityhasbeentreated inpower-systemplanningasproviding

the samepeak-reliability increment as only 0.2-0.3MWof existing fossil fuel capacity. However, it is

possiblethatadvancesinbothturbinetechnologyandpower-systemoptimizationwillallowtheNYISO

toincreaseitscapacityvaluetowindresources(Komanoff,2016b).Nevertheless,thevaluefromNYISO

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(2010) suggests that a 700 MW offshore wind farm would allow 140-210 MW to be removed.

ConsideringthatthefourturbinesinPortMorrisexceededacombinedgrossloadof140MWforalmost

300hoursover thecourseof2015, itmayappear that thiswindprojectalonemaynotbeenoughto

replaceallfourplants(EPA,2016).

According to Long Island (2016), a 350MWoffshorewind farmoperating at 40% its capacity

wouldgenerate1,226,000MWhperyear.Itfollows,then,thata700MWfarmwiththesamecapacity

factorwouldgenerateabout2,452,000MWhperyear–twenty-fivetimesmorethanthefourturbines

combined.

The lowcapacityofoffshorewindpowercanbepartiallyattributedtothedifficultytopredict

wind speeds. Also, NYPA’s turbines tend to operatemore frequently during peak hours (EPA, 2016).

Whileoffshorewindisbetterthanonshoreforpeakpowerreplacement,simulationsfromNYISO(2010)

suggestthatwindfarmsaremoreproductiveduringwinterandatnight.InNewYorkCity,winterpeaks

areprojectedtodecreaseoverthenexttenyears,andsummerpeaksprojectedtoincrease,soamore

peak-coincidentresourcemaybebettersuitedtoreplaceNYPA’sgasturbines(Gold,2015).

SolarPV

Solar power is also a variable resource, but more coincident with peak demand than wind.

AccordingtoPerez(2008),atthecurrentlevelofsolarintegrationinthedownstateNewYorkarea,solar

photovoltaics (PV) oriented southwest and tilted 30° can achieve a 70% capacity value. Using these

configurations,itwouldtakeabout230MWofinstalledsolarPVtomatchthecontributiontoreliability

fromthefourturbinesintheBronx.

Tocalculateouthowmanymegawattsofsolarphotovoltaics(PVs)wouldbeneededtomatch

theannualnetloadfromtheBronxpeakers15,Iusedhourlycapacityfactordatafromareportprepared

15100GWh

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fortheNewYorkCityEconomicDevelopmentCorporation(NYCEDC)byBrightPower(2009).Becauseof

variations in solar radiation throughout thedayandyear, installed solarPV’s capacity factorvariesas

well. Using month averages for each one-hour interval, I calculated that producing 100 GWh of

electricity would require approximately 70MW of installed solar capacity (Bright Power, 2009; EPA,

2016).That’sabouttwiceasmuchastheCity’scurrentinstalledcapacityasofOctober2015(NewYork

City[NYC],2015).Solaroutputpeaksaroundnoon,whilethehourintervalwiththehighestgeneration

fromtheturbinesisbetween5:00and6:00PM(Bright,2009;United,2016).

Using the same assumptions asNYC (2015), I calculated that approximately 8,750,000 square

feetofusable roofareawouldbeneeded to install70MWof solarPV inNewYorkCity (NYC,2015).

Such capacity couldbe achievebyutilizing all thepossible roof spaceeastofHalleck St and southof

RyawaAveinHuntsPoint,alongthewaterfrontfromStonyPointtoTiffanyStbutsoutheastofthetrain

tracks and LeggettAve, along the entire Bronx Killwaterfront southof 132nd St, andonRikers Island

(NYC,2015)(seebelow).

18

While70MWofsolarwouldbeenoughtoreplacethemegawatt-hoursfromthefourturbines,

itwould likely not be enough to replace their reliability. In fact, themorewind and solar power are

integrated into the grid, the more we may need to rely of gas-fired turbines to cope with their

intermittency (Wesoff, 2011). Unfortunately, storage on such a large scale may not be feasible for

decades (Fox-Penner,2014).Gas turbinescanbe firedupanddownquickly,making themvaluable to

pickuptheslackwhenthewindstopsblowingorthesunstopsshining(Wesoff,2011).Thiscouldcause

anetincreaseinoutputfromtheremainingsixturbines,mostofwhichareinlow-incomeandminority

communities(NYPA,2001).

Renewableenergycaneliminategreenhousegasemissionsbyforcingfossilfuelplantstorunat

lower capacity, thus making the plants less profitable their energy more expensive for consumers

(World,2016).Iffossilfuelplantshavetoremainonline,consumersstillhavetopaythatcapacitycost

(ClimateWire,2013).Whileit’simportantforcleanenergytobecheaperthanhigh-carbonenergy,there

shouldbemechanisms inplace toavoidhigherprices forourmostenergy-burdenconsumers. Lower-

incomecommunitiesmightnothavethemeanstochoosebetweenenergysources,butincentivescould

beputintoplacetomakerenewableenergyamoreviableoptionforthosewhootherwisecan’tafford

it.

Demand-SideManagement

Considering their size, the South Bronx turbines are much more valuable in terms of their

reliability than they are in the energy they provide. Over the last four years16 they have averaged a

capacityfactorof7%.ConsideringthechallengesofensuringreliabilitywithoffshorewindandsolarPV,

itmaybemoreeffectivetoutilizestrategiesthatfocusonreducingpeakdemand.ConEdisonandthe

New York State Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) have a program to do just that –

162012-2015

19

replacing power plantswith demand reduction (Audin, 2016). Inspired by the possible closing of the

Indian Point Energy Center, a 2,000MW nuclear power plant, Con Edison and NYSERDA started the

Demand Management Program (DMP) in July 2014, which enhances incentives for Con Edison

customers who install energy efficiency technologies (Demand, 2016). Eligible projects and their

increasedincentivesarelistedbelow:

The program’s target is to achieve a 125 MW reduction in peak demand by June 1st, 2016

(ConsolidatedEdison[ConEd],2016).Coned(2016)showsthatapprovedenergyefficiencyanddemand

reduction projects had already exceeded the 125 MW target by 10 MW. About 110 MW had been

committedfor$134millionin incentivesand17MWachievedfor$17million.About$13millionhave

beenapprovedforanexpected8.4MWreductionfromcombinedheatandpowerprojects.ConEdison

andNYSERDAanticipatethatthesenumberswilldropfromsomeprojectsdroppingoutoftheprogram,

but part of the reason projectsmay drop out is because theymay not have time to fully implement

thembeforeJune1st(ConEd,2016).Atthisrateofreturnoninvestment,it’squitepossiblethata2-year

extensionoftheDMPalonecouldbeenoughtoeliminatetheneedforallfourBronxturbines.According

toAudin(2016),memberoftheAssociationofEnergyEngineers’(AEE)HallofFame,1993International

Energy Manager of the Year and president of Energywiz, Inc., “the most powerful, immediate, and

20

probably cost-effectiveway to cutpeakdemandat this time is to extend the [DMP]…Extending that

deadlineforanother2years(ormore)wouldhelpgreatlytowardthedevelopmentoflargeprojectsfor

cuttingenduserdemand.”

Butreducingpeakdemandby160MWbyextendingtheseincentivesmaynotaccountforthe

megawatt-hoursprovidedbytheseturbines.Demand-responsecommitmentshaveahighcapacityvalue

potential, depending on the duration and number of calls17, but energy use reduction is limited to

periods of peak demand (New York Independent System Operator [NYISO], 2012). Thermal energy

storage,whichutilizescheaperbaseloadpoweratnighttomakeicetocoolbuildingsduringtheday,is

effective at reducing peak demandbutmay actually increase the total amount of electricity required

(Komanoff,2016b).Efficientlighting,however,iseffectiveatreducingbothMWandMWh.Infact,the

analysisbyHingeetal.(2012)foundthata160MWpeakelectricdemandreductioncouldbeachievedif

all the easily accommodating New York City office space18 were retrofitted with comprehensive,

advanceddaylightingcontrols.Theanalysisalsofoundthatthis levelofpeakdemandreductionwould

accountfor340GWhofelectricitysavings.

17AccordingtoNYISO(2012),1,800MWofdemand-responsepenetrationcanreachacapacityvalueofnearly100%ifthenumberofcallsreaches30daysayearatalengthof10hourseach.18114millionsquarefeet(Hingeetal.,2012).

21

CONCLUSION

This report evaluates only a few alternatives for ensuring electricity reliability, but those

selectedofferawiderangeofstrengths–fromoffshorewind,whichismuchmorepowerfulthanit is

reliable, to thermalenergy storage,whichcanprovide reliablepeak reductionpreciselywhenneeded

butmaynothelptoreduceenergyusage.Dependingonwhatmaybeneededmost(MWorMWh)or

whatprogramsarealready inplaceversuswhatcanbeexpandedor implemented, thisassessment is

meant to provide critical tools to be used towards recommending a plan for replacing the four gas

turbinesintheSouthBronx.ThemethodsIusedcanalsobeappliedtootherfossilfuelplants.

While synthesizing my findings, I was reminded of Bent Flyvbjerg’s essay Bringing Power to

Planning Research is which he writes, “Power has a clear tendency to dominate rationality in the

dynamicandoverlappingrelationshipbetweenthetwo.ParaphrasingPascal,onecouldsaythatpower

has a rationality that rationality doesnot know.” (Flyvbjerg, 2012). I havemadean attemptwith this

papertoexploretherelationshipbetweenpowerandrationality,andtoshowthatwhileeachcanlead

totheother,thosewhohavepowerhavetoabilitytoinventtheirownrationality.Ihopethesefindings

canhelpclosethatgap.

22

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