Northwestern Ptx Elections

8/14/2019 Northwestern Ptx Elections

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ELECTIONS DA..............................................................................................................................................11NC Shell (1/3).................................................................................................................................................21NC Shell (2/3).................................................................................................................................................31NC Shell (3/3).................................................................................................................................................4**UNIQUENESS**.........................................................................................................................................6

Obama Winning-Vote Count.............................................................................................................................7Obama Winning-Large Margin.........................................................................................................................8Obama Winning-McCain Slip..........................................................................................................................9Obama Winning-Independents.......................................................................................................................10Obama Winning-Polls.....................................................................................................................................11McCain Winning-Polls...................................................................................................................................13McCain Winning-Swing States.......................................................................................................................14McCain Winning-Momentoum.......................................................................................................................15AT: Polls..........................................................................................................................................................16**LINKS**.....................................................................................................................................................17Environment Link-Public Popularity..............................................................................................................18Alternative Energy Link-Public Popularity....................................................................................................19Ethanol Link-Public Popularity......................................................................................................................20Renewables Link-Public Popularity...............................................................................................................21

Biomass Link-Public Popularity.....................................................................................................................22Solar Link-Public Popularity..........................................................................................................................23Wind Energy Link-Public Popularity.............................................................................................................24 Nuclear Power Link-McCain Support............................................................................................................25Cap and Trade Link-McCain Support.............................................................................................................26Renewables Link-McCain Support.................................................................................................................27Clean Coal Link-McCain Support..................................................................................................................28Brazil Ethanol Link-McCain Support.............................................................................................................29Energy Key-Public Concern...........................................................................................................................30McCain Gets Credit-Green Policy..................................................................................................................31McCain Gets Credit-green Policy...................................................................................................................32McCain Gets Credit-GOP Focus....................................................................................................................33McCain Gets Credit-GOP Focus....................................................................................................................34

McCain Gets Credit-GOP Focus....................................................................................................................35McCain Gets Credit-Independent Outreach...................................................................................................36Independents Link-Environment....................................................................................................................37Independents Link-Environment....................................................................................................................38Independents Key...........................................................................................................................................39AT: Independents Key.....................................................................................................................................40Western States Key.........................................................................................................................................41AT: McCain gets Credit..................................................................................................................................42Energy Not Key-Other Issues.........................................................................................................................43**IMPACTS**...............................................................................................................................................442NC Turns Case..............................................................................................................................................45Obama Good-Iran...........................................................................................................................................46Engagement Good-War...................................................................................................................................47

Iran ConflictWar and Terrorism..................................................................................................................482NC Turns Case-Iran......................................................................................................................................492NC Soft Power Add-On (1/2)......................................................................................................................50

2NC Soft Power Add-On (2/2).......................................................................................................................51**AFFIRMATIVE ANSWERS**..................................................................................................................52AT: Iranian Engagement (1/2)........................................................................................................................53AT: Iranian Engagement (2/2)........................................................................................................................54AT: Soft Power................................................................................................................................................55

Northwestern University Debate Society

National Debate Tournament Champions

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A. Uniqueness-Political experts agree Obama will win

Sydney Morning Herald 7/28 2008, Australia, No Cliffhanger, more like an Obama landslide, p. 8, lexis

The US media stand accused of distorted election coverage, writes Anne Davies in Washington. Luckily forthe Republican nominee John McCain Europeans can't vote in the November US presidential election - just

100 days away. If they could it would be a landslide for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama.Nevertheless Senator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three leading politicalscientists declared the US media's presentation of the election as a toss-up as a "myth". Alan Abramowitz, aprofessor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution,and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a deadhorse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger. It was a particularly bold call for ProfessorSabato, who has previously cautioned about Senator Obama's claims that he can redraw the political map inAmerica. "While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next31/2 months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features ofthis election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - point to acomfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November," the three men wrote in Sabato's Crystal Ballnewsletter. "Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distortsthe evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe

conditions will change in McCain's favour, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by themedia. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up." The trio reviewed the nationaltracking polls and found that Senator Obama has led Senator McCain in every national poll in the past twomonths, except for twice early on when they tied. Senator Obama's margin has been in the 4-6 point range,in contrast to the polls in the election run-ups in 2000 and 2004 which showed much more variation overtime, they said. The state-by-state polls have also consistently given Senator Obama an advantage. "Obamais leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa,New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied," they wrote. Butthere are other worrying signs for Senator McCain. A Fox News Poll found that 51 per cent of Americansthink Senator Obama will win. Only 27 per cent pick Senator McCain (from 32 per cent last month).There's no doubt Senator Obama has run a campaign with few stumbles, apart from his serious mishandlingof the Reverend Jeremiah Wright issue. That's been achieved by keeping a safe distance from mediaquestioning, keeping the images tightly controlled and focusing on reassuring voters about his weaknesses,

for instance, his national security credentials. Meanwhile, Senator Obama is making headway with thedemographics that commentators warned would be difficult - and which conversely offered an opportunityfor Senator McCain. A Pew Hispanic Centre poll released last Thursday shows overwhelming support fromLatinos for Senator Obama - 66 per cent versus 23 per cent favouring Senator McCain. On Super Tuesday,Senator Obama received only 38 per cent of the Latino vote, while former rival Hillary Clinton received 58per cent, CNN exit polling showed. Senator McCain is facing a particularly hostile political environment.The war remains deeply unpopular in the US, although support for the surge has risen somewhat as itsimpact becomes clearer. The economic news just gets worse, and Senator McCain is struggling todistinguish his economic remedies from those of George Bush. He is also struggling to convinceRepublicans he is their man. Polling data continues to show that Democrats are more satisfied with theirparty's nominee than Republican voters and more highly motivated to vote. While Republicans normallybenefit from higher turnout among their supporters, that may not be the case this year. There was a ray ofhope for Senator McCain last week with a Quinnipiac/Washington Post poll showing him ahead inColorado by 1 per cent, reversing Senator Obama's lead in the last two polls. More implausibly, aRasmussen poll had Senator McCain ahead again, by 10 points. in Ohio, where Senator Obama has enjoyeda solid lead in the last two polls. The issue still remains for Senator Obama whether he can overcome whatsome fear is a deep-seated racist reserve about him in middle America.



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B. Links-

1. Public support for alternative energy sources

Teixeria, 07

(Ruy, Senior Fellow at both The Century Foundation and American Progress, as well as a Fellow of the New Politics Institute. He isalso a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he is co-directing a joint Brookings-American Enterprise Institute project on

political demography and geography, What the Public Really Wants on Energy and the Environment, 3/5/07,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/03/pdf/wtprw.pdf )

But attitudes are more positive toward proposals that would actively promote energy conservation and thedevelopment of alternative energy sources. In the February, 2006 Pew poll where 85 percent agreed thatAmerica was addicted to oil, the public strongly supported the following proposals to address Americasenergy supply: requiring better auto fuel efficiency (86 percent for/12 percent against); increasing federalfunding for research on wind, solar and hydrogen technology (82/14); tax cuts for companies to developthese alternative energy sources (78/18); spending more on subway, rail and bus systems (68/27); and increasing federalfunding for research on ethanol (67/22).

2. Wins on environment gives McCain enough momentoum to capture the presidency

Time, 08

(Eric Pooley, Staff Columnist for Time Magazine, McCain's Gift to the Green Movement, 5/14/08, )

McCain has a predicament. Though his candidacy has gotten a boost from the endless Obama v. Clinton grudge match, McCainknows that Democratic strife alone won't get him to the White House. To win, he must reel in independentvoters, and to do that he has to distance himself from one of the least popular Presidents in Americanhistory at a time when 80 percent of voters say the country is heading down the wrong track. So while theDemocrats are busy finishing up their fight, McCain has been looking for ways to prove that his first term wouldn'tbe tantamount to George W. Bush's third. The trouble is, there isn't a great deal of hard evidence for this proposition.McCain supports Bush's war in Iraq (though he criticized its execution) and Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy (though he previouslyopposed them). He has spoken passionately against Bush's policy on torture, and condemned the record-breaking growth ingovernment spending that has taken place on Bush's watch. But that fiscal restraint also limits McCain's policy options, which may be

why his approaches to health care and the economy don't differ a great deal from the President's. When you boil it all down,global warming is the issue that sets McCain furthest apart from Bush. The denial-and-delay wing of the RepublicanParty didn't like it, but as McCain hopscotched from New Jersey to Oregon to Washington to Ohio, the climatecrisis dominated each of his days. "We need to deal with the central facts of rising temperatures, risingwaters, and all the endless troubles that global warming will bring," he said on May 12, jabbing the air at a Portland,Oregon, wind-turbine facility. "Time is short and the dangers are great. The most relevant question now iswhether our own government is equal to the challenge." In case anyone missed the message, he added, "I will not shirkthe mantle of leadership the United States bears. I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action." Environmentalactivists have been complaining for a year that the climate crisis has gotten short shrift in this election. McCain's speech in Portland

put it back on the agenda. The sight of a Republican standard-bearer stepping up with a solid plan for mandatorygreenhouse gas reductions the kind of plan Bush and the G.O.P. congressional leaders vociferously oppose washeartening, even if McCain's policy is less than perfect. And when Obama and Clinton pounced on the plan (Obama called it"breathtaking" in its hypocrisy, since McCain has voted against alternative energy subsidies; Clinton dismissed it as a compendium of"halfway measures"), it signaled that global warming would be a serious debating issue in the general election. That's more good news

and if it happened because it's smart politics for McCain, so be it. Climate policy wonks who try to explain this complexstuff for a living admired the clarity and power with which McCain described the cap-and-trade system,which would set a declining limit on global warming pollution, then let companies sell their excesspollution permits for a profit. "For all of the last century," he said, "the profit motive basically led in one direction towardmachines, methods and industries that used oil and gas." He praised the good that came from that growth but pointed out that therewere "costs we weren t counting. And these terrible costs have added up." Now, he said, a cap-and-trade system would harness the

profit motive to reverse that trend and usher in a cleaner, more vibrant economy. "Instantly, automakers, coal companies, power plants,and every other enterprise in America would have an incentive to reduce carbon emissions, because when they go under those limitsthey can sell the balance of permitted emissions for cash. As never before, the market would reward any person or company that seeksto invent, improve, or acquire alternatives to carbon-based energy."



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http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/03/pdf/wtprw.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/03/pdf/wtprw.pdfhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1779350,00.htmlhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/03/pdf/wtprw.pdfhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1779350,00.html


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1NC SHELL (3/3)

C. Internal Link-Obama will engage in diplomacy with Iran McCain will maintain Bushs hardline

stance

Isaacs 8 July 1, John, Executive Director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, In aNutshell: McCain vs. Obama on National Security,http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/iraq/articles/070108_mccain_obama_national_security/

President Bush has displayed unremitting hostility toward the radical regime dominating Iran, a countrythat U.S. intelligence sources report had previously been pursuing a nuclear weapons program. He brandedIran part of the "axis of evil" and promoted regime change as the preferred U.S. policy. With a few limitedexceptions, the United States under Bush has refused to talk directly with Iran. McCain has been clearabout his position on Iran. In February 2008, he told an audience: "I intend to make unmistakably clear toIran we will not permit a government that espouses the destruction of the State of Israel as its fondest wishand pledges undying enmity to the United States to possess the weapons to advance their malevolentambitions." He also rejects "unconditional dialogues" with Iran. Obama has delivered messages on Iranthat were more mixed. He has said "The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be toeliminate this threat." In a June 2008 speech to the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, he refused totake the military option against Iran off the table: "I will always keep the threat of military action on thetable to defend our security and our ally Israel. Sometimes there are no alternatives to confrontation. But

that only makes diplomacy more important. If we must use military force, we are more likely to succeed,and will have far greater support at home and abroad, if we have exhausted our diplomatic efforts." In thesame speech, however, Obama promised: "aggressive, principled diplomacy without self-defeatingpreconditions, but with a clear-eyed understanding of our interests." He has said also that it "would be aprofound mistake for us to initiate a war with Iran" and condemned the administration's "saber-rattling" onIran. Obama missed a vote on a controversial amendment offered by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Liebermanthat proposed labeling Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Obama called theamendment a repeat of the mistakes that led to war in Iraq; however, he had cosponsored an earlier billdeclaring the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.

D. Impact-Failure to engage with Iran will cause nuclear conflict

Australian 8 July 2, Paul Kelly, Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia, All Must Lean onIran, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23954817-7583,00.html



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This highlights the reason for delay: Iran is still several years away from acquiring a nuclear capability. Theultimate decision point for military action will come but that point arrives under Bush's successor. At thatstage the US must either accept a nuclear armed Iran or move to thwart it. There can be no gainsaying theimperative to halt the Iranian program. Speaking in the corridors of the dialogue, Burns told The Australian:"I believe President Bush has been right to say it should be our policy to deny Iran a nuclear weaponscapability. A nuclear armed Iran would be a game-changer strategically in the Middle East, contrary to allour interests, the interests of Israel and the interests of the moderate Arab states. Given the present make-upof the Iranian Government, with President Ahmadinejad in power, that government could not be trustedwith nuclear weapons." Another dialogue participant, former ALP leader Kim Beazley, says: "There areonly two possible outcomes from a nuclear weapon coming into Iran's hands. One is a strike by either Israelor the US to prevent it happening. The other is an arms race in the Middle East that sees four or five nuclearpowers all operating on hair-trigger situations. We are talking here, with absolute certainty, of Turkey,Saudi Arabia and Egypt, with a high probability of some of the Gulf states as well." In this situation therewould be serious risks that proper command and control of nuclear systems would not exist. "You mustappreciate this problem arises not because of Israel's strategic strength but its weakness," Beazley says."Israel has the strategic depth of a beach suburb. It is not capable of fighting a nuclear war. It would get atbest 10 minutes warning of a strike from Iran." The costs would be crippling for Israel to develop aneffective second strike capability and it could not tolerate a nuclear Iran. Beazley and Burns say there is anurgent need to deepen the diplomatic effort with Iran. "The US has got to share this burden," Beazley says."The actual economic interest at stake here for China, Japan, Korea and the Europeans is greater than that

of the US. China wants to be regarded as a great power, well, it's time for China to behave like a greatpower and begin to pressure the Iranians. The rest of the world needs to grasp the seriousness of this and dosomething about it." Burns says the US "has been effectively estranged from the Iranians for threedecades". Now it is vital to "find a way to talk with them". America's aim must be a peaceful solution,despite the difficulty of dealing with Iran. He advocates broadening the range of nations involved in theprocess. If Iran refuses to negotiate then far stronger sanctions must be applied and that means that Chinamust accept its responsibilities. Burns says: "We need the leading states of the world to say to the Iranians,'No business' if you keep developing nuclear weapons. There is still room and time for diplomacy."



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**UNIQUENESS**



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OBAMA WINNING-VOTE COUNT

Obama is barely beating McCain he needs all the votes he can get

International Herald Tribune 7/29 2008, The Obama Paradox: Why No Breakaway?; He Draws Crowds, but McCain Keeps Close in Polls; Elections 2008, p.1, lexis

It is a question that has hovered over Senator Barack Obama even as he has passed milestone after

milestone in his race for the White House: Why is he not doing better? It shadowed him as he struggledagainst Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in many states through the primaries - results that sometimes stoodat odds with the huge, enthusiastic crowds that turned out to see him. It was there in the exit polls thatsuggested that many Democrats were uncomfortable with Obama, putting an asterisk next to some of hisbiggest primary victories. And it is back again as he returns from an overseas trip that even Republicanshave described as politically triumphant. In this case, the question is why, given how sour Americans feelabout President George W. Bush and the Republican Party, about the Iraq war and the ailing economy thatBush will leave to his successor and about the perception that Obama is running such a better campaignthan Senator John McCain, the senator from Illinois is not doing even better in national opinion polls Mostpolls show Obama with a lead of 6 or 7 points over McCain nationally, and he rarely breaks the 50 percentmark. Those are statistics that have given Republicans, who are not exactly feeling joyful these days, a lineto grab onto and has fed some underlying anxiety among some Democrats. ''They've known John McCainfor years,'' said Bill McInturff, a pollster for McCain. ''But people say in focus groups, 'Who the heck is

Barack Obama? Had you heard of him before six months ago?' ''And he's 46 years old. He's somebodynobody knows about.'' McCain is ''running ahead of where he should be based on the environment,''McInturff said. Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster, said the statistics should serve as a reminder of theparticular obstacles that Obama faces. ''Here's a 46-year-old African-American with a narrative that is veryunusual and that few other Americans can relate to,'' he said. ''Add to the fact that he has had four years inthe United States Senate and very little international experience. That's a large leap for the American publicto make.'' Beyond that, Obama faces an opponent in McCain with a history of appealing to independentvoters and defying his party on occasion. McCain's advocates argued during the primaries that he was thestrongest candidate the party had in a general election contest for just these reasons. ''I believe had MikeHuckabee or Mitt Romney been our nominee, they'd be 10 or 12 points behind right now, they'd be muchcloser to the generic vote,'' McInturff said. Yet for all that, is Obama really struggling? Are these summerpolls truly evidence of underperforming or fundamental weaknesses in his campaign? The truth of thematter is, given the history in open presidential elections over the past 50-years - not to mention the recent

polarization that has marked politics in the United States - a seven-point victory by Obama, or by McCain,in November would have to be considered substantial in a contest where there is no incumbent on theballot. ''If you look at this historically, presidential elections are close,'' said David Plouffe, Obama'scampaign manager. In the elections of 2000, 1968 and 1960, with no incumbent president on the ballot, thetwo candidates were separated by less than a percentage point. George H.W. Bush defeated MichaelDukakis in 1988 by seven points, and suffice it to say that Obama is no Dukakis. Bill Clinton defeatedBush four years later by six points, and that was in a three-way election with H. Ross Perot. Some analystssaid that Obama could be like Ronald Reagan in 1980. Reagan was up against an unpopular incumbent,President Jimmy Carter, who for all his weaknesses was a known quantity. Only after Reagan convincedvoters that he was credible as a president did the polls break in his direction. Even Obama's advisers saythey are uneasy at his difficulty at breaking the 50 percent barrier, a reminder - in poll after poll - that thereare a lot of Americans who are not ready to cast their lot with him and may never be. Yet in a multi-candidate race, as this one is - though Bob Barr and Ralph Nader so far are having minimal effect - victorycan be claimed with less than 50 percent of the vote. Other than Bush in 1988 and Dwight Eisenhower in1952, presidents have been routinely strolling into the Oval Office without a majority of the vote - orbarely: Reagan drew just under 51 percent in his three-way race with Carter. And finally, this is July. Thereare two conventions and three debates to go; many Americans will not even begin really paying attention tothis election until early September. Voters may be holding back because they have all kinds ofapprehensions about Obama. Or they might just not be ready to make a decision quite this early.



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OBAMA WINNING-LARGE MARGIN

Media hype of a close election is wrong Obama will win

The Age, 7/28 2008, Australia, US pundits pour cold water on talk of tight election race; Analysis, p. 10,lexis

LUCKILY for the Republicans' John McCain, Europeans can't vote in November's presidential election -

just 100 days away. If they could, it would be a landslide for Democratic candidate Barack Obama. ButSenator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three political scientists declared thatthe US media's presentation of the election as being close was a myth. Alan Abramowitz, a professor ofpolitical science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and LarrySabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse inportraying the White House race as a cliffhanger. It was a particularly bold call for Professor Sabato, whohad been sceptical about Senator Obama's claims that he could redraw the political map. "While noelection outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next 3 1/2 months,

virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this

election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - point to a

comfortable Obama-Democratic Party victory in November," the trio wrote last week in ProfessorSabato's Crystal Ball newsletter. "Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce anothernail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon

such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favour, and if they do, they should alsobe accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up." Thetrio reviewed national tracking polls and found that Senator Obama has led Senator McCain in everynational poll in the past two months, except for twice early on when they tied. The state-by-state polls havealso consistently given Senator Obama an advantage. "According to realclearpolitics.com, Senator Obamais leading in 26 states and the District of Columbia, with a total of 322 electoral votes; Senator McCain isleading in 24 states, with a total of 216 electoral votes," they said. "Obama is leading in every state carriedby John Kerry in 2004, along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana,Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied." There are other worrying signs for SenatorMcCain. A Fox News poll found that 51% of Americans think Senator Obama will win. Only 27% saySenator McCain will win (down from 32% last month). Senator Obama has run a campaign with fewstumbles, apart from his serious mishandling of the controversy over his former pastor, the ReverendJeremiah Wright. Meanwhile, he is making headway among the constituents that commentators warnedwould be difficult to woo. A Pew Hispanic Centre poll, released last Thursday, shows overwhelming

support for Senator Obama from Latinos, at 66% to 23% for Senator McCain. Senator McCain faces ahostile political environment. The Iraq war remains deeply unpopular in the US, although support for thetroop surge has risen somewhat as its impact becomes clearer. The economic news just worsens, and he isstruggling to distinguish his remedies from those of Mr Bush. He is also struggling to win over manyRepublicans. The question remains: can Senator Obama overcome what some fear is a deep-seated racistresistance to him in middle America?



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OBAMA WINNING-MCCAIN SLIP

Obama will win McCains ratings are slipping

Angus Reid Global Monitor 7/29 2008, Polls and Research, Obama Stable, McCain Drops in US Race,http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31384/obama_stable_mccain_drops_in_us_race

Democrat Barack Obama remains ahead in the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. 49 per cent of respondents would support theIllinois senator this year, while 43 per cent would vote for Republican Arizona senator John McCain.Support for Obama remained stable since June, while backing for McCain fell by two points. Five per centof respondents would vote for other candidates, and two per cent are undecided. Yesterday, McCaincriticized the current administrations handling of the economyafter it was revealed that the countrysdeficit would reach $482 billion U.S. in 2009saying, "There is no more striking reminder of the need toreverse the profligate spending that has characterized this administrations fiscal policy." In Americanelections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states.Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Obama will win McCains Iraq policy has lost him votes

Indianapolis Star 8/2 2008, McCains Iraq Positions Turn Off Voters,http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080802/OPINION01/808020395/1002/OPINION

Sen. John McCain is fond of saying that Sen. Barack Obama "would rather lose a war than lose anelection." Apparently, McCain would rather taunt Obama than debate the actual merits of Iraq and nationalsecurity. McCain refuses to commit to a timetable to withdraw American troops from Iraq. He refuses toacknowledge that the invasion was a mistake, based upon lies, and has made us only more vulnerable toanother Sept. 11 (for which Iraq had no responsibility). At times he asserts that Iraq is too insecure for U.S.troops to leave. At others, he says our troops will be welcome for 100 years. In neither case does herecognize the strength of Iraqi nationalism, which is feeding the insurgency. Nor does he see that only bysetting a deadline will we prod Iraq leaders to make political compromises to end sectarian violence.McCain scorns the tough, direct diplomacy that Obama favors, diplomacy in the tradition of all post-WorldWar II presidents except George W. Bush. Voters who do not want to be debating two disastrous warsduring the next election must hope that Obama wins this one.



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OBAMA WINNING-INDEPENDENTS

Obama will win the election independents

Washington Post 7/24, 2008, McCain Makes Significant Gains in Key Battleground States,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/07/24/ST2008072401398.html

The national political environment -- as reflected in these four statewide polls -- also seems to suggest

major hurdles for McCain in the fall. President George W. Bush remains a decidedly unpopular figure tothe general public with no more than 31 percent in any of the four states approving of the job he is doing.The numbers are even more daunting among self-identified independents who typically make up the swingvote in a presidential election. In Colorado, where independents have traditionally leaned toward Republicans, seven in tenunaffiliated voters expressed disapproval with the job Bush is doing. Those numbers are nearly identical in each of the other three

states. The polls also reveal widespread pessimism about the future of the country -- never a good sign forthe candidate running under the party banner of the incumbent. In Minnesota, just one in five voters called themselvesvery or somewhat satisfied with "the way things are going in the nation today" while a whopping 77 percent pronounced themselvesdissatisfied. The outlook was even worse in the other three states, with dissatisfied voters at 78 percent in Colorado, 81 percent inWisconsin, and 84 percent in Michigan.



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OBAMA WINNING-POLLS

Its Obamas election to win polls prove

MSNBC 7/24 2008, First Thoughts: Obamas Election to Win,http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/24/1218858.aspx

How important has this overseas trip been for Obama? Look no further than our latest NBC/WSJ poll,

which has Obama leading McCain by six points (47%-41%), unchanged from last month. While the surveyfinds that the political winds are at the Dem candidates back -- just 13% believe the countrys on the righttrack, an all-time low in the poll; this is the 25th-straight NBC/WSJ survey in which the GOP has a net-negative rating; and Bushs approval rating is only at 30% -- there are plenty of signs that Obama hasnt yetclosed the deal; if anything, he's simply grabbing on to the reverse Bush coattails at the moment. A majority(55%) think he would be the riskier choice for president, less than half of respondents say he doesnt sharetheir values and background, and McCain clobbers him on experience and commander-in-chief questions.This election, in fact, has become a referendum on Obama: 51% say they are focusing more on what kindof president Obama would be, versus just 27% who say they are focusing more on McCain. While acommon refrain is that this election is shaping up as Obamas election to lose, NBC/WSJ co-pollster PeterHart (D) puts it another way This remains Barack Obamas election to win, he says. In the end, theelection is about reassuring voters and removing doubts.

Obama remains ahead in polls

US News & World Report 7/29 2008, New Poll Shows McCain Leading Among Likely Voters,http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080729.htm

The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 48%-40%, down from a 49%-40% lead yesterday. The survey polled 2,674 registered voters from July 25-27.The Rasmussen Reportautomated daily presidential tracking poll for July 28 shows that while Obamaopened a wider lead over the weekend, it closed again in yesterday's survey of 3,000 registered voters.Obama now leads McCain 45%-42%, and 48%-45% if leaners are included. ADemocracy Corps (D) pollof 1,004 likely voters taken July 21-24 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-45% in a two-way race or 49%-43% if Bob Barr (L) and Ralph Nader are included.



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http://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspxhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspxhttp://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_pollhttp://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_pollhttp://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor072408fq7_pb.pdfhttp://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor072408fq7_pb.pdfhttp://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor072408fq7_pb.pdfhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspxhttp://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_pollhttp://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor072408fq7_pb.pdf


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McCain Winning-Obama Slip

Obama will lose the election fears of inexperience, polls, and party disillusionment

Huffington Post 5/29 2008, Obama is Working Hard and McCain is Hardly Working; Yet, PresidentialRace Remains Too Close to Call, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mario-almonte/obama-is-working-hard-and_b_115684.html

Behind all the glitter of the Obama campaign, the grim reality is that the number of undecided voters isgrowing. Six out of seven McCain supporters admit they do so without much enthusiasm; nevertheless,voters still consider Obama a riskier choice, concerned that he does not have enough experience to lead thecountry on the international stage and unconvinced by his solutions for the U.S. economy. The proof?Despite Obama's highly publicized trip overseas, it has barely made an impression among voters at home.Some polls actually show McCain gaining on him. It is also important to consider that many Hillarysupporters still harbor animosity toward Obama. They had once threatened to vote for McCain shouldHillary concede. Despite Hillary's best efforts to throw her support to Obama, it is still unclear whether hersupporters have fully embraced Obama as much as she has. A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. pollrevealed that, while the majority of Clinton supporters had originally agreed to vote for Obama, thatnumber has been steadily decreasing. And former supporters are having second thoughts. James Dobson,leader of Focus on the Family and a high profile member of the religious right, recently announced he

might switch support from Obama to McCain. It's not that he is enthusiastic about McCain, he explained,it's just that he is no longer certain about Obama, whom he now believes "contradicts and threatens ...theinstitution of the family." The glare of the media spotlight has also compelled Obama to make more definitestatements about his position on crucial issues, such as the war in the Middle East and the economy,making him a clearer target for attack. Obama has also been disillusioning many Democrats behind thescene, who feel he is already displaying an "exclusionary" attitude toward them. They fear that, like theBush administration, Obama will circle the wagon around his cabinet and disregard input from his fellowDemocrat once he gains the Oval Office. Many people also underestimate the experience and networkingskills of McCain, who has many political connections in Washington. While the spotlight has burnedbrightly on his rival, he has been working behind the scene to bolster support among fellow Republicans --themselves hardcore dealmakers on the Washington political scene -- who are ready to call in a few favorsand pull some strings to ensure their man wins.



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MCCAIN WINNING-POLLS

Polls of likely voters prove McCain will win

US News & World Report 7/29 2008, New Poll Shows McCain Leading Among Likely Voters,http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080729.htm

A new USA Today/Gallup national poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 47%-44%

among registered voters. However, when the sample is reduced to only those likely to vote, McCain jumpsto a 49%-45% lead. The survey, taken July 25-28, "showed a surge since last month in likely Republicanvoters and suggested Obama's trip may have helped energize voters who favor McCain." The poll surveyed900 registered voters and 791 likely voters.

Recent polls show McCain is ahead

Boston Globe 5/28 2008, McCain Ahead in New Poll, Political Intelligence,http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/07/mccain_ahead_in.html

While most national polls show Democrat Barack Obama with a single-digit edge over Republican JohnMcCain, a new survey out this afternoon shows McCain surging into the lead. TheUSA Today/Gallup pollhas McCain ahead 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters after picking up 10 percentage points over

the last month. Obama still leads among the broader group of registered voters, 47 percent to 44 percent,which the pollster says is the more important this far away from the election. (Gallup's separate dailytracking poll has Obama up 49 percent to 40 percent.) The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, asObama was wrapping up his high-profile foreign tour. Obama, himself, predicted he might dip a little in thepolls because he spent eight days off the campaign trail at home. The survey has a margin of error of plusor minus 4 percentage points.



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MCCAIN WINNING-SWING STATES

McCain is gaining votes in swing states

Boston Globe, 8/1 2008, McCain gaining in polls in swing states,http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/08/01/mccain_gaining_in_polls_in_swing_states/

New polls released yesterday by Quinnipiac University of likely voters in key swing states shows

Republican John McCain closing in on Democrat Barack Obama. A university survey in Florida showsObama leading 46 percent to 44 percent, compared with 47 percent to 43 percent last month. A poll in Ohioalso gives Obama a 46 percent to 44 percent edge, down from 48 percent to 42 percent last month. And asurvey by the university in Pennsylvania has Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent, compared with 52percent to 40 percent last month. The pollsters say Obama's overseas trip apparently didn't help becausevoters are more concerned with energy costs, an issue McCain emphasized while his rival was abroad"While Obama was on tour, trying to show voters he could handle world affairs, voters were home trying tofill their gas tanks," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac's polling institute.

Key states are moving towards McCain

Wall Street Journal 7/25/08 Gap is Narrowing in Battleground States,http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121689893266880737.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_left

box

The presidential race is tightening in four key battleground states, with Republican John McCain holdingan advantage among white male voters and Democrat Barack Obama keeping his lead among the youngestvoters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Results of the poll, which was conducted inpartnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com, show the gap narrowing between Sens.McCain and Obama. Sen. Obama leads slightly in Michigan and by double-digits in Wisconsin, but bysmaller margins than about one month ago. The two candidates are running statistically even in Coloradoand Minnesota, compared to the respective five-point and seven-point lead Sen. Obama had in June.

McCain is winning key states Colorado and Michigan

AFP 7/25 2008, Agence France Presse, lexis

Another poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed McCain had cutObama's lead in the key battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and overtaken Obamain voter support in Colorado. "It's been a good month for McCain. His movement in these key states, notlarge except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown,the institute's assistant director. "The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing inColorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy," Brown said.



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MCCAIN WINNING-MOMENTOUM

McCain has momentum

Washington Times 7/22 2008 lexis

During the last six weeks, Mr. Obama has erred in making unabashed flips-flops. Despite the increasedattention he is currently receiving on his overseas tour, American voters are beginning to see beyond the

glitter that the talented speaker dispensed throughout the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Mr. Obama'spoll ratings are the lowest since he clinched the nomination in early June, Rasmussen reported. Mr. Obamaand John McCain are now tied at 42 percent and 41 percent. While Mr. McCain's ratings have remainedconsistent, Mr. Obama's have dropped 6 percent since the end of the Democratic contest (48 percent ofthose polled on June 8-10 said they would vote for him). Thus, Mr. Obama did not receive the "bump" inthe polls that many commentators expected he would get once the battle with Hillary Clinton came to anend. Rather, his support has weakened.



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AT: POLLS

Polls are an inaccurate determinant of election winners

Rather 8/2 Dan, Syndicated Columnist, 2008, Summer polls in presidential campaign are pure folly,Seattle PI, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/373197_ratheronline03.html

A few words about these polls. First and foremost, no matter whom one wants to see in the White House,

paying close attention to summer polls is pure folly. Some say to this line of reasoning, "Sure, but look atMichael Dukakis, for example: He was up 17 points over George H.W. Bush in 1988." And Dukakis lost so what, precisely, is the point here? If you must search for historical antecedents, you could also look at1980, when unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter ran a close race against Ronald Reagan until very late inthe campaign, when voters evidently decided they were comfortable with the former actor and onetimegovernor of California. Reagan went on to win by nine points in an electoral landslide. But as they say inthe disclaimers that run at the end of ads for investment services, past performance does not necessarilyserve as a predictor of future results. And it's worth remembering that polls haven't exactly been the mostreliable indicators so far in this election season. Perhaps this is advantage McCain, as Obama polled betterthan he performed in the run-up to the New Hampshire and California primaries and perhaps this isadvantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, aremissing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.



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**LINKS**



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ENVIRONMENT LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Environmental Protection is popular with the public-

Washington Monthly, 06

(Christina Larson, managing editor of The Washington Monthly, The Emerging Environmental Majority,May 2006, < http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2006/0605.larson.html>)

But there are outdoor organizations whose members include voters who can draw conservatives' attention.After an Earthworks staffer tipped off a counterpart at Trout Unlimited, the sportsmen's group (whosemembership is two to one Republican) emailed its roughly 100,000 members and contacted regionaleditorial boards to spotlight the fight. News spread like wildfire--western sportsmen were outraged thatpublic lands where they hunt and fish might be put on the auction block. Once they knew the stakes, localhook-and-bullet organizations held phone-bank days, organized letter-writing campaigns, and scheduledvisits to regional Senate offices. A petition signed by 758 sportsmen's clubs affiliated with National WildlifeFederation, from the Great Falls Bowhunters Association to the Custer Rod and Gun Club, landed onelected officials' desks in Washington just weeks later. "These lands, so important to sportsmen and women,are open to every American, rich and poor alike," the letter read. "We believe it is wrong to put them up formining companies and other commercial interests to buy at cut-rate prices." The outcry from rural andexurban voters achieved what no amount of lobbying from environmentalists in Washington alone could

have. Within weeks, western Republican senators renounced the measure on the Senate floor and to theirhometown newspapers. As Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) told theBillings Gazette , "The local folks mostimpacted by a sale have to be on board." The measure was then effectively dead--within weeks thelanguage was withdrawn from the House bill. This victory marked a telling moment of cooperationbetween hunters and environmentalists, a working partnership once as unlikely as Madeleine Albright andJesse Helms. Environmental policies have become increasingly popular over the past few years. Seventy-five percent of Americans in a 2005 Harris poll agreed with the statement, "Protecting the environment isso important that requirements and standards cannot be too high, and continuing environmentalimprovements must be made regardless of cost." Yet a shrinking minority of voters are willing to associatethemselves with the loaded term "environmentalist." In the same poll, only 12 percent claimed that label.Americans like green, but they are less fond of greens. And that has been doubly true for outdoorsmen.Over the past five years, though, Bush administration policies in the west--accelerating drilling on publiclands and waiving protections on water quality and wildlife--have given this odd couple a common enemy.

"The White House's pillaging of public lands has driven hunters and ranchers into the trenches withenvironmentalists," says David Alberswerth of the Wilderness Society. "There's absolutely no questionabout what's brought us closer together," agrees Oregon hunter and prominent outdoor columnist Pat Wray."It's the Bush administration." This is particularly true in western states like Montana, where the WildernessSociety worked alongside local hunters and outfitters in 2004 to overturn plans to allow drilling in theRocky Mountain Front, a unique big-game habitat known as "America's Serengeti." Similar coalitions haveformed around New Mexico's Valle Vidal, Colorado's Roan Plateau, Wyoming's Powder River Basin, andelsewhere--uniting the environmentalists' policy, legal, and media expertise with sportsmen's deepknowledge of a particular place and ability to speak a language that resonates locally. These struggles maypale in comparison to the brewing battle over global warming. As more red-state farmers find their cropsaffected by rising temperatures, more ice fishermen notice lakes that no longer freeze in the winter, andmore hunters see wetlands where ducks breed begin to evaporate, concern about climate change is crossingold political boundaries. Although they may have diverse starting points and dramatically different

reactions to labels like "environmentalist," liberal and conservative outdoor activists are discovering that ona range of issues, their concerns about the earth overlap. In many ways, this brings them full-circle to thebeginning of America's environmental movement. If today's new alliances become a lasting united front,the union could not only recast American politics with a progressive tilt but have vast implications for thehealth of the planet.



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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Alternative Energies are popular with the public

China Daily, 08

(Alternative energy popular stop in presidential campaign, 7/23/08, Lexis)

A small green clearing on a hilltop beside the Ohio River doesn't seem like much of campaign stop, but John Baardson knows thescent of alternative energy and undecided voters will lure America's presidential contenders before long."McCain has already called and expressed interest, and we believe Obama will too," said the president and chiefexecutive of Baard Energy. Before Americans go to the polls in November to choose Republican John McCain or Democrat BarackObama to be the next US president, Baardson plans to break ground on a $6 billion plant in Wellsville that will turn Appalachian coalinto 53,000 barrels a day of diesel and jet fuel. The plant, designed to produce fuel that costs just $60 to $70 a barrel with 46 percentfewer emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases than conventional diesel fuels, is an irresistible draw for the 2008

presidential hopefuls. With oil at $130 a barrel and gasoline at $4 a gallon, energy and the economy has vaulted to the top of thepolitical agenda, and McCain and Obama have both sought to portray themselves as proponents of cheaper alternatives. That Baard'splant will be in Ohio, the politically critical state in President George W. Bush 2004 election victory that could once again helpdetermine the outcome of this election, is just a happy coincidence. "The politics are fascinating," Baardson said. "We want to drivehome the point that if you want the voters in this area, this is something you can give them ... the price of oil is the number one issueout there and we have a clean solution." The plant will bring at least 1,500 construction and 200 full-time jobs to impoverished easternOhio. In addition, some 18,000 tons of coal a day will be liquefied into fuel suitable for use in jets and trucks - adding an estimated750 mining jobs to the mix. In return for the jobs and home-grown fuel supply, Baard wants the government to offer loan guarantees

and Air Force fuel contracts. The state of Ohio helped lure the plant, which is mostly privately funded, with tax incentives. Whileconservative Republicans see more drilling as the best answer to America's oil needs and liberal Democrats want to focus on wind,

solar and biofuels, the politics of coal - which supplies about 50 percent of America's energy needs - is complex. Moderates onboth sides have found something to like about Baard's coal-to-liquid plant, which gasifies woodwaste andcoal and captures and sequesters about 85 percent of the resultant carbon dioxide emissions in the region'scoal beds. More importantly, analysts believe embracing coal-to-liquid technologies and others like it may offer Obama a way towin over white working class voters in the area, an economically depressed but culturally conservative region that supported rivalHillary Clinton in the Democratic nominating process. Obama has a track record of supporting coal, since coal mining is also a stapleof his home state, Illinois. But whether that will be enough to win over voters concerned about his race or reputation as a liberal eliteis not clear. "Right now Obama has the more difficult challenge in this region than McCain, but the economy is in lousy shape soDemocrats should be able to connect," said Herb Asher, a professor of political science at Ohio State University, "It's an importantarea - only 10 percent of (Ohio's) vote but it can move back and forth. I think at this stage it's a challenge for Obama but he doesn'thave to carry it - even if he loses, the votes he gets could make the difference." Polls show Obama with a small lead over McCain inOhio, but the state is considered too close to call.



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ETHANOL LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Public Support for Ethanol

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, 08

(Political Research Institution, Public Support for Ethanol, 7/10/08,

http://www.greenbergresearch.com/articles/2216/4489_RFA%20%20_public%20survey%20analysis_%20m3%200610.pdf )The on-going campaign to force the nation to revisit and reduce its commitment to ethanol has failed to move most American voters. A

recent bi-partisan survey of 1,200 registered voters shows that by a 2:1 margin, the public supports increased use of ethanolin our nations fuel supply. This majority crosses party lines, capturing conservatives and environmentalistsalike. Voters largely blame the rising cost of food on fuel prices; less than one in ten blame the expandeduse of ethanol. Between June 23 and July 1, the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and the Republican pollingfirm Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of 1,200 registered voters, including oversamples of environmentalists andopinion formers.1 The overall margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.83. This survey was commissioned by the Renewable Fuels

Association. The pro-ethanol majority is bigand broad. Asked if they favor or oppose continuing to increaseuse of ethanol, an impressive 59 percent come out in favor, while just 30 percent oppose. Support is evenhigher(63 percent) among environmentalists. Men and women, older voters and younger voters, high school educated andcollege graduates, and voters from all regions in the country support this alternative fuel. Most impressive, though, at a time whenDemocrats and Republicans cannot seem to agree on anything, they agree on the increased use of ethanol.



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RENEWABLES LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Renewables are popular

National Conference of State Legislatures, 02

(Troy Gagliano, Renewing the Energy Debate, State Legislatures Magazine: April 2002,http://www.ncsl.org/programs/pubs/402energy.htm)

Kansas Representative Sloan says the public doesn't need to be coaxed to use power generated from renewableresources, but more has to be made available. "Public opinion polls show that citizens overwhelminglysupport it," he says, "because it's cost-effective and can be used in concert with traditional fossil fuel plant operations." Statelawmakers need to consider incentives to stimulate electricity generation from renewable resources, he says, which is not only

popular with the public, but can be beneficial to rural landowners and increase energy self-sufficiency."Legislators and regulators can provide minimal or no-cost incentives to individual landowners, utility managers and other interested

parties to invest in renewable technologies that enhance a state's energy self-sufficiency," Sloan says. "It's something we all have tolook at."



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BIOMASS LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Biomass is popular

Wall Street Journal, 06

(John Deutch, Biomass Movement, 5/10/06,

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114722621580248526.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries )

President Bush has made the welcome point that the U.S. needs "to move beyond a petroleum-basedeconomy," and has lent his support to the need to develop energy from biomass, which refers to all bulkplant material. This is popular with the public and also enjoys significant support in Congress. Unfortunately,congressional subsidies for biomass are driven by farm-state politics rather than by a technology-development effort that might offer a

practical liquid fuel alternative to oil. Meanwhile, major oil and chemical companies are evaluating biomass and investors are chasingbiomass investment opportunities. But how much of this is practicable?



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SOLAR LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Solar Energy is popular

Forbes, 08

(Joshua Zumbrun and William Pentland, Columnists for Forbes, Solar Power, 7/8/08, http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/07/energy-solar-blm-biz-beltway-cx_jz_wp_0708solar.html )

The bureau (BLM) decided to stop accepting applications to build solar plants on federal land until a two-year environmental impactstudy was complete in 2010. Sanders, with a long history of backing environmental causes, was livid at the decision. But in the middleof the Energy and Natural Resources Committee meeting, Sanders unexpectedly got word that the BLM reversed its decision. "Icongratulate the bureau for making the change and for understanding the enormous potential of solar energy," Sanders said. The

turnaround was a welcome development for backers of the technology--and, more important, demonstratesthe alternative energy industry's coming of age in Washington after decades of behind-the-scenes lobbyingeffort. What happened? "After six weeks of public outcry and inquiries from Congress, BLM reversed theirposition," says Katherine Gensler, the manager of regulatory and legislative affairs for the Solar Energy Industries Association. Thischapter in the solar saga started in May, when the BLM announced it would no longer take applications. Since 2005, the bureau hasreceived 130 applications to develop solar plants across 1 million acres of federal land. Before accepting any more, the bureau wantedto complete a "programmatic environmental impact study" to assess the process of building solar plants. Such studies typically take 18to 24 months. For the solar industry, the delay was seen as a dangerous threat. The BLM controls 12 million acres in Arizona, 15million in California, 8 million in Colorado, 13 million in New Mexico, 48 million in Nevada and 23 million in Utah. A lot of that landis sun-drenched empty desert, some of the best land in the country for collecting solar energy. "It was a blow for the industry, and it

was a surprise," says Gensler. "It certainly caused fear in a lot of developers' hearts." Lengthy delays can jeopardize the funding ofsome projects, and the longer projects wait in the pipeline, the longer companies must wait to reap the revenue from their investments.

"Right away we started to hear from folks," says Heather Feeney, a spokeswoman for the BLM. " Solar energy is incrediblypopular, and the BLM recognizes that and is willing to encourage that."



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WIND ENERGY LINK-PUBLIC POPULARITY

Wind Energy the most popular form of alternative energy

Bradley, 98

(Robert, USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), Dirty secrets of renewable energy, May 1998,

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1272/is_n2636_v126/ai_n27529128 )

Wind power currently is the environmentalists' favorite source of renewable energy and is thought to be themost likely to replace fossil fuel in the generation of electricity in the 21st century. Hydropower has lostfavor with environmentalists because of the damage it has done to river habitats and freshwater fishpopulations. Solar power, at least when relied on for central-station or grid power generation, hasinfrastructure that is very energy-intensive (and thus fosters the air pollution situation it is intended to solve). Moreover, it ishighly uneconomical, land-intensive, and thus a fringe electric power source for the foreseeable future. Geothermal has turned out to

be depletable, with limited capacity, falling output, and modest new investment. Biomass is uneconomical and an air pollution-

intensive renewable. This leaves wind power, beloved as a renewable resource with no air pollutants andconsidered worthy of regulatory preference and open-ended taxpayer and ratepayer subsidies. Despite decadesof liberal subsidies, though, the cost of generating electricity from wind remains stubbornly uneconomical in an increasinglycompetitive electricity market.



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NUCLEAR POWER LINK-MCCAIN SUPPORT

McCain supports Nuclear power-would get credit

Environmental News, 08(7/2/08, McCain and Obama's Plans to Combat Climate Change,http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37541)

Nuclear power has got to be part of any real meaningful effort that we are going to make to reducegreenhouse gas emissions, said McCain. It has got to be part of the equation. McCain encouragesdevelopment of nuclear power. Despite his view that the market should correct itself, in May of 2005 and January of 2007,McCain and Lieberman introduced climate change bills that would give billions in subsidies to the nuclearindustry. McCain proposes the construction of 45 new nuclear reactors by 2030.

McCain gets credit for nuclear energy

Reuters, 08

(FACTBOX: U.S. presidential candidates on nuclear energy, 5/6/08,http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0643937020080506?sp=true)

Nuclear energy is part of each of the 2008 presidential candidates' energy platforms. Republican JohnMcCain supports it wholeheartedly, while Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton express reservations. Below areaspects of each candidate's position on nuclear power as outlined in their energy polices. MCCAIN, an Arizona senator -believesthe United States can use nuclear power more extensively to reduce its reliance on petroleum importedfrom unstable regions and unfriendly sources. - believes that fuel sources that are alternatives to oil shouldbe selected by competitive markets but thinks nuclear power has faced an uneven playing field because ofpolitical opposition. - supports the Yucca Mountain storage facility and believes opposition to it is harmfulto U.S. interests. - is open to advances in technology that permit greater safe reprocessing of spent fuel. He

believes improvements in reactor design have reduced concerns over safe operation, but that there must be vigilance in all aspects ofoperation, transportation of waste, and storage of waste.



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http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37541http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0643937020080506?sp=truehttp://www.enn.com/energy/article/37541http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0643937020080506?sp=true


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CAP AND TRADE LINK-MCCAIN SUPPORT

McCain gets credit for cap and trade

Environmental News, 08

(7/2/08, McCain and Obama's Plans to Combat Climate Change,http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37541)

Cap and trade is being implemented in Europe and they have stumbled and theyve had problems but it isstill the right thing to do, said John McCain. It is what we did in relation to acid rain. McCain iscalling for a 60% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050. One of the reasons McCain supports thisapproach is because it encourages the market to respond with the lowest cost approach. He believes themarket will correct itself with the use of cleaner technologies without the need for intervention, such as atax credit or major investment from the government. One challenge with this plan is that we dont operate in a truly freemarket, which is needed for the market to correct the problem. Large subsidies exist for all sources of energy, although renewableenergy has had less consistent ones. Many of the hidden costs of pollution are not accounted for, even under a cap and trade system.For example, who is paying for the hospital visits when a child has an asthma attack from air pollution?



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RENEWABLES LINK-MCCAIN SUPPORT

McCain gets credit for Renewables



Although McCain says that he supports renewable energy, he has not set specific targets. John McCains website (JohnMcCain.com)makes no mention of solar, wind, renewable energy, or even public transportation under the section on climate change and has nosection on energy. The Senate was one vote shy of passing an economic stimulus package earlier this year that contained an incentivefor solar energy. McCain didnt show up to vote. He also does support the subsidies for ethanol that are currently in place. Coal fired

power plants, said McCain are being proposed to be built all over this countryIf you can generate that power and set up a stationthat is powered by solar, by God I would love it, but you know we dont have that technology. Despite the advancement ofrenewable energy in recent years, McCain doesnt support incentives similar to what he has proposed for nuclear power and cleancoal.



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CLEAN COAL LINK-MCCAIN SUPPORT

McCain gets credit for Clean Coal



McCain has expressed support for clean coal and concern about the construction of additionalconventional coal powered plants. He recently told a Missouri State University audience that he will pledge$2 billion to make clean coal a reality. McCain had supported a moratorium on offshore oil drilling until recently. Henow is showing increasing support for opening up offshore areas to drilling. "I believe it is time for the federal government to lift these

restrictions and to put our own reserves to use," McCain said in June. "As a matter of fairness to the American peopleand a matter of duty for our government, we must deal with the here and now, and assure affordable fuel forAmerica by increasing domestic production."



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BRAZIL ETHANOL LINK-MCCAIN SUPPORT

McCain gets cred on Brazilian Ethanol-prior support

Biofuels Digest, 08

(McCain supports ending of ethanol subsidies, Brazilian ethanol tariff, 6/16/08,

http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/blog2/2008/06/16/mccain-supports-ending-of-ethanol-subsidies-brazilian-ethanol-tariff/ )

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain said that he supports the ending of ethanol subsidies,would back a repeal of the ethanol tariff, and would support the inclusion of Brazil and India into a largerG8 group. McCain was quoted in Estato de Sao Paulo saying that he favors the removal of Russia from the G8. Recently, McCain,who introduced the first proposed cap-and-trade bill in the Senate in 2003, said: The facts of global warming demand oururgent attention, especially in Washington. Good stewardship, prudence, and simple common sense demandthat we act to meet the challenge, and act quickly, he said. I will not shirk the mantle of leadership thatthe United States bears. I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action on seriouschallenges. Those who want clean coal technology, more wind and solar, nuclear power, biomass and bio-fuels will have their opportunity through a new market that rewards those and other innovations in cleanenergy. McCain was speaking at the Vestas Wind Technology plant in Portland, Oregon. Recently, Sen.McCain led a revolt of 24 Senate Republicans have asked the EPA to waive, or restructure, the Renewable Fuel Standard passed inDecember. In a statement, Sen. John McCain said that This subsidized (ethanol) program paid for by taxpayer dollars has

contributed to pain at the cash register, at the dining room table, and a devastating food crisis throughout the world. The Senators saidthat waiving the ethanol mandate would encourage farmers to grow other crops, as opposed to growing corn for food markets.



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ENERGY KEY-PUBLIC CONCERN

Energy is the top concern of the public going into this election year

Associated Press, 08

(Gas at $4 brings promises, pandering, 6/23/08, < http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25335622/>)

Oil and gas prices that have doubled in the past year have squeezed aside the war in Iraq as the No. 1 issuethis election year and both parties are blaming each other for the price spike and for apparentcongressional paralysis. Obama and McCain have made high gas prices a top issue in their campaigns andhave offered dueling remedies aimed at easing them. Their positions are being echoed daily by theirsurrogates on Capitol Hill. And both make it sound as if only their proposals would chart the path to lowerfuel prices and a final cure for what President Bush once labeled the nation's addiction to foreign oil. Thisdebate is certain to get louder as the November election approaches. In a USA Today-Gallup Poll releasedMonday, nine in 10 people said energy, including gas prices, would be very or extremely important indeciding their presidential vote in November, tying it with the economy as the top issue. People saidObama would do a better job than McCain on energy issues by 19 percentage points.



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MCCAIN GETS CREDIT-GREEN POLICY

McCain gets credit- Big on energy

Time, 08

(James Carney, Staff Columnist for Time Magazine, The Week in Politics, 1/28/08,

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1818880,00.html?xid=feed-cnn-topics )

There was some positive news for John McCain this week. As the price of oil keeps climbing, so too, it seems, does thepublic's support for new oil drilling. At the very least, McCain's combination of aggressively pushing fornew drilling and making bold proposals for ways to encourage development of alternative energy is helpinghim look strong and proactive on an issue that might otherwise benefit the Democrat. And, of course, theAdministration's surprising deal with North Korea over the disclosure of its nuclear activities has the potential to give a boost toPresident George W. Bush's dismal poll ratings, which weigh like an anchor on McCain's campaign.



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MCCAIN GETS CREDIT-GREEN POLICY

Obama treating Alternative energy at taboos-McCain gets credit

Denver Post, 08

(McCain defies energy taboos, 6/19/08, http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_9640917 )

John McCain deserves credit for expanding the nation's energy debate to include such potent but politicallycontroversial solutions as nuclear power and drilling for oil on the continental shelf. In a speech in Springfield,Mo., on Wednesday, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee also urged more research and investment in clean coal

technology and development of alternative energy such as wind and hydroelectric power. We particularly liked the emphasison nuclear energy because it is the only current large-scale source of around-the-clock electricity that doesnot release the greenhouse gases that are changing the world's climate. We don't expect nuclear power to play a bigrole in states like Colorado, blessed with abundant wind power, a developing solar technology and potential sources of geothermalenergy. But it could be key in regions such as the south with fewer renewable resources, as the Atlanta-based utility Southern Co. hassuggested. Likewise, clean coal technology, where carbon dioxide is sequestered and injected into old natural gas fields or otherwisekept from escaping into the atmosphere, is vital if that abundant source of U.S. fossil energy is to be responsibly tapped. As far asMcCain's rhetorical support of renewable energy, we note that he actually voted against existing tax credits for renewable energy. Butif deathbed conversions are accepted by the church, then Americans worried about responsible energy policies can't be too picky about

politicians who come late to the party. As The Post editorialized Aug. 5, 2001, "No matter how zealously the U.S. pursues energyconservation, it will still need some new production to avert energy shortages. But conservation is not only the most cost-effective and

environmentally friendly energy policy, it's also the only one that can produce immediate results." That's still true today, but it's alsotrue that we can't get to the emission-free "new energy economy" overnight. While Democrats, including Barack Obama,have generally been advocates of renewables and conservation, they've mostly treated nuclear power anddevelopment of oil reserves in the continental shelf or the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as taboosubjects. But America can't solve its energy problems with

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