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NorthwestIndependentSchool District

Quarterly Report4Q15

Economic Conditions – DFW Area

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UnemploymentRate

-0.2%

99,000 new jobsNational rate 1.8%

Job Growth

2.9%2,713 more than 2014

AnnualizedHome Starts

26,840

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 5.4%Texas 4.1%

DFW MSA 4.0%Fort Worth 0.2%

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q15

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*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff(Added McElvey Ranch 2,000 lots, Wellington 1,374 lots, Stardust Ranch 143 lots, Entrada (Westlake) 10 lots; Subtracted 1,533 lots from Tradition)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 2,934 2,818 3,977 8,4502 Denton ISD 1,894 1,675 3,033 16,1403 Prosper ISD 1,723 1,385 2,874 32,9444 Northwest ISD 1,223 1,153 1,933 26,757*5 Dallas ISD 1,235 1,015 2,234 5,9496 Lewisville ISD 1,320 1,007 2,151 2,9897 Keller ISD 953 959 960 2,2828 Eagle Mtn. ‐ Saginaw ISD 943 868 1,297 19,5189 Little Elm ISD 1,075 856 1,556 4,74610 Rockwall ISD 709 643 1,819 8,33011 Wylie ISD 664 539 884 4,61212 Mansfield ISD 635 526 1,028 5,50913 McKinney ISD 591 509 1,219 6,86814 Crowley ISD 559 495 1,220 8,03115 Allen ISD 488 467 644 2,06316 Plano ISD 481 445 945 2,87717 Forney ISD 425 439 654 12,26018 Midlothian ISD 461 432 1,255 20,90819 Burleson ISD 480 417 642 3,32420 HEB ISD 424 411 438 4,909

New Housing Activity 4Q15

• 4Q15 starts are the highest 4th Quarter starts since 2007• 4Q15 Closings increased 11% from 3Q15 and posted the highest closing rate of 2015• Inventory remains in a good position with 6.2 month’s supply

Northwest ISD

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Starts Closings Inventory

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151Q 297 230 251 288 357 230 1Q 229 224 220 225 269 2872Q 357 268 293 362 282 307 2Q 349 230 331 318 341 2633Q 264 285 286 347 350 375 3Q 348 263 332 299 347 2834Q 204 254 257 270 239 311 4Q 277 295 258 344 273 315

Total 1,122 1,037 1,087 1,267 1,228 1,223 Total 1,203 1,012 1,141 1,186 1,230 1,148

Annual Closing Distribution 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL

1 Dorado Ranch 122 39 102 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 88 23 183 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck)  85 22 614 Harmon Ranch 79 22 2555 Highlands Glen 61 23 66 Reata Meadows 60 16 17 Trails of Fossil Creek 57 17 1518 Villages Woodland Springs/Woodlands 57 14 69 Briarwyck (Roanoke) 53 13 1910 Fairway Ranch 46 6 106

TOTALS 708 195 633

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 24 343 6892 Harmon Ranch 79 255 1153 Trails of Fossil Creek 57 151 4394 Harvest Meadows (NWISD) 30 132 4405 Fairway Ranch 46 106 2906 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 12 81 5,0247 Ranches, The 2 79 298 Trophy Club/Canterbury Hills 28 78 09 Avery Ranch 15 68 010 Chadwick Farms 22 66 87

TOTALS 315 1,359 7,113

Future Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future1 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 81 5,0242 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 37 3,6403 Tradition 0 2,9844 McKelvey Ranch  0 2,0005 Wellington (Ft. Worth) 0 1,7006 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD) 0 1,1627 Champions Circle/Oak Creek Trails 0 8258 Berkshire 0 7919 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 343 68910 Shale Creek 4 600

TOTALS 465 19,337

Overall Housing DataBy Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category 8

Elementary ZoneAnnual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings Inventory

Vacant Dev. Lots Future Lots

BECK 164 40 153 50 87 86 102CLARA LOVE 1 0 1 0 0 0 321COX 148 43 143 25 81 243 815GRANGER 47 6 57 14 18 6 0HASLET 26 3 42 4 11 60 1,322HATFIELD 7 0 32 1 0 3 6,633HUGHES 23 23 3 0 23 82 137JUSTIN 150 51 88 38 88 307 1,092LAKEVIEW 48 18 40 8 41 127 315NANCE 49 7 64 17 16 157 1,747PETERSON 119 11 165 39 22 256 278PRAIRIE VIEW 4 4 3 1 4 24 786ROANOKE 127 39 77 37 75 384 699SCHLUTER 195 19 212 62 51 38 3,564SENDERA RANCH 2 0 12 0 4 81 5,024SEVEN HILLS 13 4 15 5 7 42 282THOMPSON 100 46 46 15 73 37 3,640Grand Totals 1,223 314 1,153 316 601 1,933 26,757

Active SubdivisionBerkshire– City of Fort Worth

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Berkshire

• 791 total lots• Ground work currently underway• First phase of 299 lots expected to

be delivered in March 2016• Estimated velocity rates:

• 2016 = 192 homes • 2017 = 192 homes• 2018= 192 homes• 2019 = 192 homes• 2020 = 71 homes

• First residents expected fall 2016• $275K-$350K • Appx. 15-20 lots fall in Eagle

Mountain-Saginaw ISD• Nance Elementary

Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD

Future SubdivisionHarvest by Hillwood

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Argyle ISD Harvest• 650 total lots• 440 future lots• 132 vacant developed lots• 30 occupied homes• 30 homes under construction• 30 4Q starts• 78 annual starts • Split between Argyle ISD

and Northwest ISD• AISD = 2,350 lots• NWISD = 650 lots

• 2 current students in NWISD• Justin Elementary

Future SubdivisionTradition – City of Ft. Worth

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Tradition• 2,984 total lots (estimate)• 300 apartment units (estimate)• 395 total acres • Stratford Land Development • Sale of land expected to complete in

April 2016• Developer anticipates first homes on

ground 18-24 months after sale closes• No current students• Hatfield Elementary

Future SubdivisionWellington- City of Ft. Worth

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Wellington• 2,900 total units • 1,700 single family lots• 1,200 multi-family units • First 500 lots currently under

development• Lot delivery expected spring 2017• 5 home builders• Anticipated absorption rate: 15-20

homes per month • First residents expected Fall 2017• Schluter Elementary

Future SubdivisionSendera Ranch – City of Ft. Worth

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Sendera Ranch• 11,429 total lots• 8,664 future lots• 2,570 homes occupied• 62 homes under construction• 118 vacant developed lots• 2,400 future lots in Sendera Ranch North• Developer anticipates first homes on the

ground in 4Q16• Developer estimates delivering 400-600

lots per year through 2022• Split between Sendera Ranch Elementary

and Thompson Elementary • 2,244 total students

• 1,105 elementary students • 549 middle school students• 590 high school students

• Current student yield= .87

Sendera Ranch North2,400 future lots

Future DevelopmentProject Blizzard

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Project Blizzard• Hillwood Mixed use development• 275 single family lots• Project will be completed in 5 phases• Zoning has been approved• Construction not anticipated to start

until 3Q16• Lakeview Elementary

Apartment Yield Analysis

Yield Comparison 2014-15 2015-16 Change

Students 676 803 + 127

Average Yield 0.30 0.32 + 0.02*Comparison between the same 18 apartments existing in 2014-15 study.

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Future Apartments

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Apartment and Single Family Analysis

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• Between 2014/15 and 2015/16 Northwest ISD added 127 students in multi-family units

• Almost 4% of Northwest ISD students reside in multi-family units• The district multi-family yield per unit is 0.27 students, while the yield for a

single family home is 0.64 students• Northwest ISD added 935 students in single family homes between 2014/15

and 2015/16

2014‐15 2015‐16 ChangeTotal Students 19,828 20,948 1,120Out of District 468 472 4Unmatched 153 207 54Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 19,207 20,269 1,062Multi‐Family 

Students in MF 676 803 127MF Units 3,445 3,445 0% Students in MF 3.5% 3.9% 0.4%MF Yield 0.20 0.27 0.07

Single FamilyStudents in SF 18,531 19,466 935SF Parcels 29,827 30,463 636% Students in SF 96.5% 96.1% ‐0.4%SF Yield  0.62 0.64 0.02

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Northwest ISD will enroll more than 22,000 students next fall• 5 year growth = 5,795 students• 2020/21 enrollment = 26,743 students• 10 year growth = 12,906 students• 2025/26 enrollment = 33,854 students

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Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2011/12 301 1,383 1,391 1,407 1,368 1,331 1,291 1,317 1,281 1,190 1,278 1,210 1,013 865 16,6262012/13 300 1,448 1,465 1,448 1,466 1,433 1,402 1,400 1,375 1,325 1,344 1,302 1,153 950 17,811 1,185 7.1%2013/14 301 1,485 1,545 1,512 1,514 1,529 1,517 1,479 1,489 1,457 1,489 1,334 1,232 1,067 18,950 1,139 6.4%2014/15 311 1,550 1,538 1,618 1,596 1,553 1,557 1,550 1,521 1,541 1,595 1,481 1,275 1,145 19,831 881 4.6%2015/16 319 1,527 1,650 1,661 1,658 1,653 1,668 1,639 1,599 1,575 1,745 1,643 1,414 1,197 20,948 1,117 5.6%2016/17 319 1,600 1,625 1,761 1,747 1,739 1,747 1,763 1,713 1,679 1,787 1,651 1,581 1,319 22,031 1,083 5.2%2017/18 319 1,688 1,708 1,728 1,862 1,836 1,843 1,837 1,849 1,813 1,900 1,678 1,596 1,488 23,146 1,114 5.1%2018/19 319 1,777 1,801 1,816 1,821 1,966 1,938 1,936 1,931 1,948 2,042 1,807 1,621 1,513 24,235 1,090 4.7%2019/20 319 1,861 1,889 1,918 1,922 1,923 2,074 2,035 2,032 2,040 2,191 1,956 1,747 1,532 25,439 1,204 5.0%2020/21 319 1,970 1,985 2,016 2,026 2,022 2,030 2,176 2,135 2,145 2,290 2,078 1,890 1,661 26,743 1,304 5.1%2021/22 319 2,087 2,101 2,112 2,131 2,142 2,126 2,127 2,285 2,255 2,405 2,200 2,008 1,796 28,093 1,350 5.0%2022/23 319 2,209 2,226 2,250 2,238 2,269 2,255 2,242 2,237 2,409 2,524 2,302 2,124 1,908 29,512 1,419 5.1%2023/24 319 2,328 2,372 2,353 2,366 2,339 2,396 2,364 2,339 2,355 2,692 2,403 2,223 2,037 30,886 1,374 4.7%2024/25 319 2,456 2,491 2,513 2,495 2,472 2,471 2,512 2,467 2,461 2,634 2,581 2,320 2,125 32,316 1,431 4.6%2025/26 319 2,591 2,639 2,642 2,649 2,607 2,619 2,592 2,621 2,593 2,749 2,519 2,490 2,225 33,854 1,538 4.8%

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

• Cox Elementary may enroll 535 by next fall, and more than 650 students by 2017• Peterson Elementary may enroll more than 1,000 students by 2018• By 2017, four campuses may be over stated capacity, and 2 additional campuses

may be within 5% of capacity19

*Green box = within 5% of capacity*Yellow box = over capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus   Capacity 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

Beck Elementary 850 789 823 849 867 859 862 866 867 866 869 871Clara Love Elementary 850 720 712 698 715 714 702 701 705 715 721 727Cox Elementary 850 442 535 656 796 974 1,157 1,381 1,646 1,828 2,005 2,231Granger Elementary 850 906 910 911 898 879 894 897 902 909 917 926Haslet Elementary 650 424 408 395 398 396 404 412 425 439 454 469Hatfield Elementary 450 444 469 491 518 551 586 666 779 925 1,085 1,269Hughes Elementary 650 555 566 564 572 567 571 592 617 642 669 698Justin Elementary 650 528 532 554 570 586 596 620 641 663 686 710Lakeview Elementary 650 563 596 630 637 666 668 676 681 688 695 711Nance Elementary 650 497 526 563 604 639 680 727 769 815 858 910Peterson Elementary 850 847 927 994 1,073 1,121 1,160 1,164 1,165 1,163 1,173 1,182Prairie View Elementary 650 421 439 447 455 479 495 516 537 559 581 603Roanoke Elementary 850 707 688 696 704 693 685 722 763 807 852 903Sendera Ranch Elementary 650 580 575 593 600 643 648 688 730 773 818 863Seven Hills Elementary 650 544 550 556 550 553 557 573 589 611 631 650Schluter Elementary  650 622 706 777 845 927 1,009 1,094 1,193 1,275 1,366 1,459Thompson Elementary  650 547 576 610 636 659 694 723 757 795 837 884ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 12,050 10,136 10,538 10,984 11,438 11,906 12,368 13,018 13,766 14,473 15,217 16,066Elementary Absolute Growth 413 402 446 454 467 462 650 748 707 744 849Elementary Percent Growth 4.25% 3.97% 4.23% 4.13% 4.09% 3.88% 5.26% 5.74% 5.13% 5.14% 5.58%

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

• Tidwell Middle School may have more than 1,300 students by 2017• Eaton High School opened this fall with nearly 1,000 students, and is

anticipated to reach 1,500 students next fall

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*Green box = within 5% of capacity*Yellow box = over capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus   Capacity 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

Chisholm Trail Middle School 1,100 994 1,057 1,139 1,195 1,283 1,362 1,394 1,458 1,523 1,630 1,738Gene Pike Middle School 1,100 766 767 843 886 909 957 983 988 975 1,032 1,108Medlin Middle School 1,100 1,106 1,200 1,245 1,326 1,366 1,462 1,470 1,447 1,386 1,391 1,407Tidwell Middle School 1,200 1,113 1,252 1,372 1,456 1,591 1,663 1,788 1,902 2,061 2,220 2,333Wilson Middle School 1,200 834 879 900 952 958 1,012 1,032 1,093 1,113 1,167 1,220MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 5,700 4,813 5,155 5,499 5,815 6,107 6,456 6,667 6,888 7,058 7,440 7,806Middle School Absolute Growth 201 342 344 316 292 349 211 221 170 382 366Middle School Percent Growth 4.36% 7.11% 6.67% 5.75% 5.02% 5.71% 3.27% 3.31% 2.47% 5.41% 4.92%Northwest High School 2,525 2,263 2,030 1,703 1,685 1,740 1,817 1,937 2,033 2,151 2,194 2,261Byron Nelson High School 2,400 2,571 2,630 2,732 2,871 3,112 3,367 3,584 3,822 4,037 4,181 4,310Eaton High School 2,500 984 1,505 2,054 2,253 2,401 2,562 2,714 2,830 2,994 3,112 3,239Steele Accelerated High School 450 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141Denton County JJAEP 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Denton Creek  38 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,875 5,999 6,338 6,662 6,982 7,426 7,919 8,408 8,858 9,355 9,660 9,983High School Absolute Growth 503 339 324 320 444 493 489 450 497 305 323High School Percent Growth 9.15% 5.65% 5.12% 4.80% 6.36% 6.64% 6.17% 5.36% 5.61% 3.26% 3.34%DISTRICT TOTALS 25,625 20,948 22,031 23,146 24,235 25,439 26,743 28,093 29,512 30,886 32,316 33,854District Absolute Growth 1,117 1,083 1,114 1,090 1,204 1,304 1,350 1,419 1,374 1,431 1,538District Percent Growth 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8%

County Appraisal ValuesPercent Change in Value 2014 – 2015

21Source: Texas Comptroller's Office

Net Taxable Value

5.0%$12.1 Billion

2015 County Appraisal ValuesAppraisal Values Map and Average Student Yield by Price Point

22Source: Denton, Tarrant and Wise County CAD & Templeton DemographicsBased on students geocoded to Single Family parcels with verified addresses and appraisal value > $10,000

Legend Appraisal Values Units Total 

StudentsTotal Yield

Elem. Students

Elem. Yield

MS Students

MS Yield

HS Students

HS Yield

< $150K 8,016 4,107 0.512 2,095 0.261 934 0.117 1,078 0.134$150K ‐ $250K 10,679 7,141 0.669 3,440 0.322 1,610 0.151 2,091 0.196$250K ‐ $350K 4,603 2,992 0.650 1,392 0.302 709 0.154 891 0.194$350K ‐ $500K 2,651 1,960 0.739 887 0.335 452 0.171 621 0.234

> $500K 1,038 630 0.607 278 0.268 172 0.166 180 0.173Grand Total 26,987 16,830 0.624 8,092 0.300 3,877 0.144 4,861 0.180Wise County Appraisal Values not available

30%

39%

17%

10% 4%

Percentageof Units perPrice Point

24%

42%

17.8%

11.6% 3.7%

Percentageof Students

per Price Point

Summary

• DFW continues to be a leader in job and population growth by creating 99,000 jobs in 2015.

• Northwest ISD had more than 300 new home starts and closings in the 4th quarter of 2015.

• Beck, Justin and Schluter have the highest amount of new home activity representing 41.6% of district starts in 2015.

• NISD can expect an increase of approximately 5,800 students during the next 5 years.

• 2020/21 enrollment projection: 26,743 students

• NISD is projected to have 33,854 students for the 2025/26 school year.

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