NorthSide Regeneration Project white paper - Crime, by Missouri Wonk

7/30/2019 NorthSide Regeneration Project white paper - Crime, by Missouri Wonk

1/26

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NORTHSIDE CRIME

NorthSide: Crime

Initsbeginnings,St.Louiswasaveryhappy

andpeacefulcity.Thiswasevidentbythefact

thattherewasnotasingleconvictionfor

murderduringthe>irsthalfcenturyofits

settlement,andhalfthehousesofthe

inhabitantshadnolocksinthemoron

them(Shepard,43).Thisfacthaschangedconsiderablysincethecityspeacefultimesin

thelateeighteenthandearlynineteenth

centuries.Thereisareportthatcomesout

eachyearthatrankscitiesaccordingtothe

prevalenceofcrime.St.Louisoftenappears

eitheratthetopornearthetopofthelist.1

MissouriWonkgathereddatafrom1970to

2010forthestateofMissouri,St.LouisCity,

andthetwopolicedistrictsthatprimarily

encompasstheNorthSidearea,2Districts4and

5,3,4foreachoftheindexcrimeslistedinthe

IndexCrimesboxonthenextpage.

MissouriWonkalsousedhistoriccensusdata5

toapproximatethecrimerateforeachofthe

typesofcrimesforthetimeperiod1970-2010.

Thepopulationestimatesandcrimeratesare

basedonthepopulation>igurescontainedin

Summary

TheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDistrictsthatencompasstheNorthSidearea,Districts4and5,

haveexperiencedsigni>icantlygreatercrimeratesoneverymajorcrimeindicatorthaneitherthe

CityofSt.LouisorthestateofMissourioverthepastfourdecades.Theareaespeciallysuffers

fromahighrateofpersoncrimes;between2001and2010,thetotalpersoncrimeratewas63%

higherthanthecitysrateand8XgreaterthanMissourisrate.Allofthiscrimetranslatesinto

higherstateprisonspendingattributabletotheNorthSideareaofthecity.Whilethearea

accountsforlessthan0.25%ofthestatespopulation,itisresponsibleformorethan1%ofthe

statescorrectionsspending.Theamountofprisonspendingattributabletotheareaisnearly

twiceasmuchonapercapitabasisasSt.LouisCityandnearly5XtheamountoftheSt.Louis

metropolitanarea.CrimeintheNorthSideareaalsoresultsinsigni>icantlymorepercapitastatejudicialspendingthantheotherareasofcomparison.
http://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Table1forDistricts4and5combinedandSt.LouisCityasawhole.

Toestimatethepopulationforeachyearin

betweeneachdecade,MissouriWonk

apportionedthedeclineinpopulationevenly

acrosseachyear.Foreachanalysis,Missouri

Wonkusedtherateoftheparticularcrime,whichisthenumberofcrimesperevery

100,000people.

Table1:DemographicIndicators

Year Districts4and5(combined) St.LouisCity

1970 108,625 622,236

1980 60,482 452,801

1990 50,985 396,685

2000 38,607 348,189

2010 35,175 319,294

IndexCrimes

MurdersandNon-NegligentManslaughter

ForcibleRape

Robbery

AggravatedAssault

TotalPersonCrime(Totalfrom>irst4categories)

BurglaryandBreakingandEntering

Larceny(Theftover$50)

AutoTheft

TotalPropertyCrimes4(Totalfromsecond3categories)

TotalIndexCrimes(TotalPersonCrime+TotalPropertyCrime)

Table1:PopulationEstimates

Sources: UnitedStatesBureauoftheCensus,Table46:593-595

NeighborhoodChangeDatabasebyGeolyticsInc.

AmericanCommunitySurvey2010
http://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Thegraphaboveshowsthatthemurderandnon-negligentmanslaughterrateofpolicedistricts4

and5,thetwodistrictsthatprimarilyencompasstheNorthSidearea,hasbeenhigherthanSt.

LouisCitysorMissourisrateandhassomewhattrackedthetrendofSt.LouisCity.However,

therehasbeenarecentspikeintheDistrict4and5ratebetween2005and2010,whichhas

departedfromthetrendofSt.LouisCity.Missourismurderandnon-negligentmanslaughterrate

hasheldrelativelysteadyoverthefortyyearperiod.Overthe1970-2010timeframe,Districts4

and5sratehasbeenabout71%higherthanthecitysrateand9XMissourisrate;between2001

and2010,thedistrictsratewas83%higherthanthecitysrateandmorethan11XMissouris

rate.

MurdersandNon-NegligentManslaughters

Sources:

St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-19896

CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment

1990-2010

U.SDecennialCensuses1970,1980,1990,&2000


InformationrelatingtoMissouricrimeswasgatheredfromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/

crime/mocrimn.htm
http://www.mowonk.com/http://livepage.apple.com/http://livepage.apple.com/http://livepage.apple.com/http://livepage.apple.com/http://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/


4/26

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NORTHSIDE CRIME

ForcibleRapes

Sources:


CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment1990-2010




crime/mocrimn.htm

TherateofforciblerapesinDistricts4and5hasmostlytrackedwithSt.LouisCityoverthepast

fourdecades,althoughgenerally,ithasbeenhigher.Fromthegraphabove,therewereonlyfour

timeswhentheforcibleraperateofSt.LouisCityexceededthatofDistricts4and5:1970,the

mid-1970s,1981,and2003.Mostrecently,therewasaspikeinthenumberofthesecrimesinthemid-2000s;however,thistrendhasstartedtodecreaseinbothareasin2008.Therateofforcible

rapesinMissourihascomparativelybeensteadyoverthattimeframe,andmuchlowerthaneither

areaforallbutoneyear,2003.From1970to2010,thedistrictsrateofforciblerape,onaverage,

wasabout36%higherthanthecitysrateand3.5XMissourisrate;between2001and2010,the

districtsratewas46%higherthanthecitysrateand3.5XMissourisrate.


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

TherateofrobberyinDistricts4and5hasbeenhigherthaninSt.LouisCityoverthepastfour

decades,sometimesdoublingthecitysrate.ThegraphaboveshowshowDistrict4and5strendhaslargelymimickedthecitys,buthasalwaybeenhigher.Incontrast,Missourisrobberyrate

hasbeensteadybutmuchlowerthanDistricts4and5orSt.LouisCity.From1970to2010,the

districtsratewas,onaverage,almost53%higherthanthecitysrateand9XMissourisrate;

between2001and2010,theirratewas59%higherthanthecitysandalmost11XMissourisrate.

Robberies

Sources:

St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment

1990-2010




crime/mocrimn.htm


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

WhilealwaysgreaterthanSt.LouisCity,therateofaggravatedassaultsinDistricts4and5grewat

afasterrateinthemid-1970sandhasbeenconsiderablyhighersince.From1970to2010,on

average,thedistrictsratewas48%greaterthanthecitysand5.6Xtheaggravatedassaultrateof

Missouri.Between2001and2010,theirratewas,onaverage,60%higherthanthecitysand6X

Missourisrate.

AggravatedAssaults

Sources:

St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentAnnualReports,1970-1989CrimestatisticsinformationrequestedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment

1990-2010




crime/mocrimn.htm


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Thetotalnumberofpersoncrimesisacombinationofmurdersandnon-negligent

manslaughters,forciblerapes,robberiesandaggravatedassaults;astherearefarmore

robberiesandaggravatedassaults,thosecrimesin>luencethisrateconsiderablymore.Therate

oftotalpersoncrimesinDistricts4and5has,onaverage,been51%higherthanthecitysrate

andnearly7XtherateofMissourioverthepastfourdecades.Between2001and2010,thetotal

personcrimerateinDistricts4and5was,onaverage,63%greaterthanthecitysandmore

than8XtherateofMissouri.

TotalPersonCrimes

Sources:






crime/mocrimn.htm


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

TherateofburglaryandbreakingandenteringinDistricts4and5spikedinthelate1970sand

early1980sandthenagainintheearly1990s,butotherwisehascloselytrackedSt.LouisCitys

rate.ThedistrictsratehasalwaysbeenhigherthanMissourisrateoverthefourdecadetimeframe.From1970to2010,therateofDistricts4and5was,onaverage,13.5%greaterthan

thecitysrateandmorethan3XMissourisrate;between2001-2010,theirratewas,onaverage,

98%ofthecitysratebutstillabout2.9XMissourisrate.

BurglaryandBreaking&Entering

Sources:



1990-2010




crime/mocrimn.htm


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Larceny

Thestatisticsintheearly1970sareskewedforDistricts4and5andSt.LouisCitybecausetheU.S

DepartmentofJusticestandardizedcrimereportingincitiesin1973,hencethesharpincreasein

1973forbothareas.TherateoflarcenyinDistricts4and5hasbeenconsistentlyhigherthan

boththecityandMissouriexceptforabrieftimeintheearly2000swhentheirratedippedbelow

thecitys.Between1973and2010,Districts4and5sratewas,onaverage,49%higherthanthe

citysand3.4XMissourisrate;from2001to2010,theirratewas,onaverage,63%higherthanthe

citysand4XMissourisrate.

Sources:






crime/mocrimn.htm


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

AutoTheft

Sources:



1990-2010




crime/mocrimn.htm

TherateofautotheftinDistricts4and5andcloselytrackedthecitysoverthepastfour

decades;ithasconsistentlybeenhigherthanMissourisrateoverthattimeframe.From1970to

2010,theautotheftrateinDistricts4and5,onaverage,was24%higherthanthecitysrateand

5.5XhigherthanMissourisrate.Between2001and2010,theirratewas,onaverage,41%higherthanthecitysand7.6XMissourisrate.


11/26


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

TotalCrime

Sources:






crime/mocrimn.htm

Totalcrimeconsistsofthetotalamountofpersoncrimesandpropertycrimes;forpurposesof

thisanalysis,arsonisexcludedfrompropertycrimesforthethreeareas;becausetherearemore

propertycrimesthanpersoncrimes,therateismoreheavilyin>luencedbypropertycrimes.TherateoftotalindexcrimeinDistricts4and5hasconsistentlybeenhigherthaneitherthecity

orMissouri.From1973to2010,therateoftotalcrimeinDistricts4and5was,onaverage40%

higherthanthecitysrateand4XMissourisrate.Between2001and2010,theirratewas,on

average,47%higherthanthecitysrateand4.6XMissourisrate.


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Thesecrimeshaveconsequences,especially

forthestatesbudget,asMissourihastopay

tohousethecriminalsconvictedoftheoffenseslistedaboveaswellasotheroffenses

andalsopayforsupervisionofthose

sentencedtoprobationorparole.The

availabilityofdataregardingtheamountof

prisonspendingattributabletocrimes

committedinaspeci>icareaisnotreadily

available.Tomakeprojectionsregardingthe

amountofprisonspendingattributabletothe

NorthSideareaofSt.Louis,MissouriWonk

hadtorelyonavarietyofsourcesof

informationincludingMissouriDepartment

ofCorrectionsAnnualReportsRelatingtothe

OffenderPopulation,andSt.LouisCitycrime

statisticsreportedbyneighborhood.

Generally,therearetwotypesofDepartment

ofCorrectionsexpenditures:incarceration

expenditures(thoseassociatedwithhousing

prisoninmates)andsupervisionexpenditures(thoseassociatedwith

probationandparolecosts).In>iscalyear

2010,theannualcostofincarceratinga

prisonerwas$16,308(Eddy).Additionally,

thecostsofsupervisingaprisoneramountto

$1,431(SB320FiscalNote2011).These

costswillbeusedtocalculatetheamountof

prisonspendingattributabletoanarea.2

FirstMissouriWonkgatheredthetotal

amountofprisonersfromSt.LouisCity,the

numberofoffendersthatareonprobation,

andthenumberofoffenderswhoareon

parole.Accordingtothe2010Departmentof

Correctionsdocument,APro>ileofthe

MissouriCorrectionsSpending

InstitutionalandSupervisedOffender

PopulationonJune302010,St.LouisCity

wasresponsibleforsentencing4,521prisonersinMissouriprisons,4,623offenders

onprobation,and1,978offenderson

probation(16,79,80).

MissouriWonkalsogatheredinformationon

thecrimesforwhichprisonerswere

sentencedinMissouri;thesecrimesare

containedinTable2.MissouriWonkassumes

thatcriminaloffensesoftheoffender

populationinSt.Louisissimilartothe

criminaloffensesoftheoffenderpopulation

inMissouri.

Next,MissouriWonkgatheredinformationon

crimescommittedintheneighborhoods

eitherpartiallyorwhollylocatedinthe

NorthSideareaofSt.Louis;MissouriWonk

assumesthatthenumberandtypesofcrimes

oftheNorthSideneighborhoodsrelativetotheCityofSt.Louisservesasareasonable

NeighborhoodsEitherPartiallyor

WhollywithintheNorthSideArea

DowntownWest

Jeff-Vander-Lou

St.LouisPlace

CarrSquareColumbusSquare

OldNorthSt.Louis

NearNorthRiverfront

HydePark


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

proxytodeterminethenumberofthecitys

prisonersandsupervisedoffendersthatare

attributabletotheNorthSideneighborhoods.

Aftertotalingthenumberandtypesofcrimes

intheNorthSideneighborhoodsaswellasin

St.LouisCity,MissouriWonkdeterminedthe

percentageofeachtypeofcrimeinSt.Louis

CitylistedinTable2thatisattributabletotheneighborhoods.Thesepercentagesare

containedinTable3.

Afterdeterminingthenumberofcrimesof

theoffenderpopulationaswellasthe

numberandtypesofcrimesoftheNorthSide

neighborhoodsandSt.LouisCity,Missouri

WonkappliedtheMissouricrimetype

percentagescontainedinTable2tothe

offenderpopulationofSt.LouisCity.Next,

MissouriWonkappliedtheSt.LouisCity

crimescommittedintheNorthSideareato

theoffenderpopulationaswelltogetan

estimateofthenumberofoffendersattributabletotheNorthSideareabythetype

ofcrime;theresultsfromtheseapplications

arecontainedinTable4.

TypeofCrime Prison Probation Parole

Person 53.6% 14.5% 24%

Property 20.7% 30.25% 31.9%Drugs 17.8% 34.25% 33.1%

DWI 4.2% 7.9% 4.3%

Other 3.7% 13.1% 6.7%

Source:MissouriDepartmentofCorrections,2010AnnualReport

Table2:2010Prison,Probation,andParoleCrimes

TypesofCrimes

AccordingtotheMissouriDepartmentofCorrections2010AnnualReport,thetypesofcrimes

belowincludethefollowingoffenses:Person

Murder,Rape,Robbery,Assault,SexualAssault,ChildMolestation,ElderAbuse,andArson1

Property

Burglary,Stealing,Forgery,Arson2

Drugs

Possession,Sales,Manufacture,Traf>icking

DWI

Other

Weapons,PublicOrderOffenses,Non-Support


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

UsingtheestimatesforthenumberofSt.Louis

Cityprisoners,offendersonprobation,and

offendersonparolethatareattributabletothe

NorthSideneighborhoodsthatarecontainedin

Table4,MissouriWonkcandeterminethe

amountofMissouricorrectionsspending

attributabletotheNorthSidearea.Earlier,MissouriWonkindicatedthatspendingoneach

TypeofCrime

PercentageofSt.

LouisCrimes

Attributabletothe

NorthSide

Neighborhoods

Person 12.9%

Property 10.0%

Drugs 15.0%

DWI 6.9%

Other 11.1%

Table3:PercentageofSt.Louis

CrimesCommittedintheNorthSide

AreabyTypeofCrime

Source:St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment,Crimes2006-2010

Typeof

Crime

Prison

St.LouisCity

Prison

NorthSide

Nbhds

Probation

St.LouisCity

Probation

NorthSide

Nbhds

Parole

St.LouisCity

Parole

NorthSide

Nbhds

Person 2,424 312 671 86 475 61

Property 936 94 1,398 140 631 63Drugs 807 121 1,583 238 655 98

DWI 188 13 364 25 84 6

Other 166 18 607 67 133 15

Total 4,521 558 4,623 556 1,978 243

Table4:EstimatedCriminalOffendersofSt.LouisCityandNorthSideby

TypeofCrime

Sources:DatafromTables2&3andMissouriDOC2010OffenderPopulationPro>ile

prisoneramountedto$16,308peryear

whilespendingoneachsupervisedoffender

amountedto$1,431peryear.However,

beforeMissouriWonkestimatestheamount

ofprisonspendingattributabletothe

NorthSidearea,onemoreadjustmentmust

bemade.Thepopulationoftheareaof

analysisis14,821whilethepopulationof

theneighborhoodslocatedwhollyor

partiallyintheNorthSideareais22,216,

accordingtothe2010census.Asaresult,

MissouriWonkestimatesthattheamountof

prisonspendingattributabletothe

NorthSideareais66.7%oftheamountof

prisonspendingattributabletotheneighborhoodswhollyorpartiallyinthe

NorthSidearea.

Usingthe>iguresprovidedinTable4,this

amountstoatotalof579prisonersand

$9,442,332intotalprisonspendinganda

supervisedpopulationof799and

$1,143,369inspendingonoffender

supervision;thiscomestoatotalof

$10,585,701thatisattributabletothe


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

NorthSideneighborhoodswhollyorpartially

intheNorthSideareaofSt.Louisin2010.

Afterapplyingthepopulationadjustment,

thiscomestoanestimated372prisonersand

$6,066,576inMissouriprisonspendingand

533supervisedoffendersand$762,723in

supervisionspendingattributabletothe

NorthSideareain2010,foratotalof$6,829,299.MissouriWonkcanalsousethe

datacontainedintheMissouriDepartmentof

CorrectionsOffenderPro>ileReportto

comparetheNorthSidesamountofprison

andoffendersupervisionspendingtothe

areasofSt.LouisCity,theSt.Louis

metropolitanarea7,andMissouri.These

>iguresarecontainedinTables5and6.The

informationinTable6isalsorepresentedin

avisualformatinChart1.

AreaPrison

Population

Prison

Spending

Supervised

Offender

Population

Supervised

Offender

Spending

Total

Spending

NorthSide 372 $6,066,576 533 $762,723 $6,829,299

STLCity 4,521 $73,728,468 6,601 $9,446,031 $83,174,499

STLMetro 9,751 $159,019,308 22,422 $32,085,882 $191,105,190

Missouri 30,327 $494,572,716 73,683 $105,440,373 $600,013,089

Table5:CorrectionsSpending

Notes:Assumes$16,308inspendingperprisonerand$1,431inspendingpersupervised

offender.InformationforFranklinCountyparole numberswereunavailable,soMissouri

WonkextrapolatedtheSTLMetroSupervisedOffenderPopulation>igurebasedon

informationavailablefortheotherfourcountiesandFranklinCountys2010population.

Source:MissouriDepartmentofCorrections,APro>ileoftheInstitutionalandSupervisedOffenderPopulationonJune302010,

Area CorrectionsSpending PopulationCorrectionsSpending

PerCapita

NorthSide $6,829,299 14,821 $461

STLCity $83,174,499 319,156 $261

STLMetro $191,105,190 2,000,231 $96

Missouri $600,013,089 5,996,231 $100

Table6:CorrectionsSpendingPerCapita

Sources:DatafromTable5andMissouriDOC2011OffenderPopulationPro>ilefor

populationestimates


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

$400.00

$450.00

$500.00

NorthSide STLCity STLMetro Missouri

Graph1:CorrectionsSpendingPerCapita

Theamountofstatecorrectionsspending

attributabletotheNorthSideareaisnearly

twiceasmuch,onapercapitabasis,asthe

correctionsspendingattributabletoSt.LouisCityandnearly5Xasmuchasthecorrections

spendingattributabletoeithertheSt.Louis

metropolitanareaorMissouri.

MissouriJudicialandLegalSpending

Beforecriminalsareeithersupervisedor

incarceratedtheymustventurethrough

Missourisjudicialandlegalsystem.Some

receiveassistancefrompublicdefendersand

allaresubjecttobothprosecutionandcourt

procedures.

TheUnitedStatesBureauofJusticeStatistics

collectsdataonjusticeexpendituresofstate

andlocalgovernments.The2009data,the

latestyeardataisavailable,reportsthat

Missouristategovernmentexpended

$245,460,000onthejudicialandlegal

processes;thisamountincludesalljudicial

andlegalexpenses.

Indeterminingtheamountofstatejudicial

andlegalexpensesattributabletoaspeci>icgeographicarea,MissouriWonkreferredto

otherstudiesthathaveattemptedtoanswer

thesamequestion.Themostnotablerecent

studyisa2010analysisentitled,TheCostof

CrimetoSociety:NewCrime-Speci>ic

EstimatesforPolicyandProgram


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Area NumberofArrests

NorthSide 2,407*

STLCity 30,306

STLMetro 157,354

Missouri 375,160

Table7:2010NumberofArrests

Source:CrimeinMissouri2010,Missouri

StateHighwayPatrol

*MissouriWonkEstimate

JudicialandLegalCostPerArrest

2009EstimateofMissouriJudicialand

LegalExpenses:

$245,460,000

2010NumberofArrestsinMissouri:

375,160

JudicialandLegalExpenseperArrest:

$654*

*Assumes2009Expense=2010Expense

Evaluation.Inthearticle,theauthors

assignedanaveragejudicialandlegalcostfor

thetypicalcaseacrossallcategoriesof

crimesaccordingtothenumberofarrests.

MissouriWonkgatheredinformationonthe

numberofarrestsforSt.LouisCity,theSt.

Louismetropolitanarea,andMissouri.

Speci>icarrestdatawasnotavailableforthe

NorthSidearea;asaresult,MissouriWonk

estimatedthenumberofarrestsintheNorthSideareaaccordingtothepercentage

ofcrimeinSt.LouisCityattributabletothe

NorthSideneighborhoods,asimilarestimate

procedurefordeterminingcorrectionscosts

attributabletotheNorthSideareaused

earlierinthisanalysis,exceptthescopeof

theestimatewaslimitedtojust2010.Again,

thepercentagewasadjustedtoaccountfor

thepopulationdifferencebetweenthe

NorthSideareaandthetotalpopulationof

NorthSideneighborhoods.Thisresultsinthe

numberofarrestscontainedinTable7for

eachgeographicarea.Table8providesthe

totalstatejudicialandlegalcostsforall

arrestsaswellasthepercapitajudicialandlegalcostspergeographicarea.Theper

capitajudicialandlegalcostsarepresented

inGraph2aswell.

Area

Numberof

Arrests

TotalState

JudicialandLegalCosts

Population

StateJudicialand

LegalCostsperCapita

NorthSide 2,407 $1,574,178 14,821 $106

STLCity 30,306 $19,820,124 319,156 $62

STLMetro 157,354 $102,909,516 2,000,231 $51

Missouri 375,160 $245,354,640 5,996,231 $41

Table8:TotalandPerCapitaJudicialandLegalCosts


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Graph2:JudicialandLegalSpendingPerCapita

Summary

TheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDistrictsthatencompasstheNorthSidearea,Districts4and5,

haveexperiencedsigni>icantlygreatercrimeratesoneverymajorcrimeindicatorthaneither

theCityofSt.LouisorthestateofMissourioverthepastfourdecades.Theareaespecially

suffersfromahighrateofpersoncrimes;between2001and2010,thetotalpersoncrimerate

was63%higherthanthecitysrateand8XgreaterthanMissourisrate.Allofthiscrime

translatesintohigherstateprisonspendingattributabletotheNorthSideareaofthecity.While

theareaaccountsforlessthan0.25%ofthestatespopulation,itisresponsibleformorethan

1%ofthestatesprisonspending.Theamountofprisonspendingattributabletotheareais

nearlytwiceasmuchonapercapitabasisasSt.LouisCityandnearly5XtheamountoftheSt.

Louismetropolitanarea.CrimeintheNorthSideareaalsoresultsinsigni>icantlymoreper

capitastatejudicialspendingthantheotherareasofcomparison.

$0#

$20#

$40#

$60#

$80#

$100#

$120#

NorthSide# STL#City# STL#Metro# Missouri#


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

AbouttheData

MissouriWonkreliedonseveraldocumentstocompilethecrimedata.Theninepolicedistricts

havemaintainedtheirborders,forthemostpart,since1961.Therewasasmallchangein2003

inwhichthesouthernboundaryofdistricts4and9andconsequentlythenorthernboundaryof

district3wasmovedfromChouteautoI-44andfollowingI-55tothePoplarStreetBridge8.

Togatherthehistoricaldata,MissouriWonkvisitedtheSt.LouisCountyLibraryHeadquarters

wheretheirspecialcollectionsdivisionmaintainsmicro>icheoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPolice

Reportsdatingbacktothemid-1800s.However,sincetheboundarieschangedsigni>icantlyin

1961,MissouriWonkonlyuseddataafterthatyear,speci>icallyafter1970,toprovideafair

comparison.Foreachreportavailable,MissouriWonkcopiedapageinthereport,whichlists

summarycrimeinformationfortheninepolicedistricts.Thisinformationwasavailableforyears1970to1988.Year1989informationwasobtainedviae-mailfromtheSt.Louis

MetropolitanPoliceDepartmentLibrary.Unfortunatelyonlypersoncrimeandpropertycrime

totalsbydistrictwereavailableforyears1985-1989;asaresult,thereisagapintimeinthe

individualcrimechartswhere1985-1989dataismissing.MissouriWonkinquiredtheSt.Louis

MetropolitanPoliceDepartmentaboutthisissueandthedepartmentexplainedthatmore

speci>icdatawasunavailable.

The1990-1993datawasalsoobtainedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment,but

wassummarizedandavailableinmoredetail;itwasbrokendownbyneighborhoodaswellas

bypolicedistrict.The1994-2010datawasavailabledowntotheindividualcrimeleveland

evenincludedwhatdistrict,neighborhood,andstreetlocationofwherethecrimewas

committed.However,summaryinformationwasnotavailablebydistrictforyears1994-2008;

asaresult,MissouriWonktabulatedthecrimesfordistricts4and5sothattheseyearscouldbe

incorporatedintothetrendgraphs.Summaryinformationwasavailableforthewholecitypera

PDFdocumentprovidedbytheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentforyears1994-2008.

SummaryinformationbydistrictandcitywasavailableviaaPDFdocumentforyears

2009-2010.

Toestimatethepopulationofdistricts4and5(combined)foreachdecade,MissouriWonkusedtheNeighborhoodChangeDatabasebyincorporatingthecensustractsthatencompassthearea.

Thecensustractsuseddonotexactlymatchtheboundariesofthepolicedistrictsbutrather

theyincorporateallofthecensustractsthatarecompletelywithinthedistrictsaswellasthe

districtswheremostofthelandareaiswithintheboundaries.Itisintendedtoprovidearough

approximationofthepopulationofthearea,notanexactcount.Thecensustractsinclude:

1097,1105,1104,1114,1115,1257,1267,1266,1201,1202,1203,1232,1234,1235,1221,


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

1222,1224,1212,and1213fromthe2000census9andcensustracts1097,1105,1104,1115,

1212,1202,1267,1266,1275,1257,1256,1255,1275,1274,and1232fromthe2010

AmericanCommunitySurvey.

BelowisamapoftheninepolicedistrictsoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.10

Figure1:St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDistricts


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Data,Sources,andArea

Theareaoffocusintheanalysisrelatingtocorrectionsandjudicialandlegalspendingisthe

geographicregionencompassedbycensustractscensustracts1115,1202,1212,1257,1266,

1271,and1275ofthe2010census.TheareaisshowninFigure2andincontextofSt.Louis

CityinFigure3.

Figure2:NorthSideArea2010CensusTracts

Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftware,ACS2006-2010Interface.

Note:NumbersabovedenotecensustractnumbersusedbyUnitedStatesBureauofthe

Census.

1202

1266

1257

1271

1275

1212

1115


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

Figure3:NorthSideAreainContextofSt.LouisCity

Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftware,ACS2006-2010Interface.

Note:TheareashownhighlightedinredstripesdesignatestheNorthSide

Area.


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

1AlthoughSt.Louisdoesappearatornearthetopofthelist,thismaybearesultofthehow

citiesreportcrimes.Larceniescanbereportedindifferentwayswiththenumberreportedbasedonthetheftofpropertyexceedingsometypeofthreshold($50,$1,000,etc.).Estimationmethodsusedbypolicetojudgeofthevalueofpropertystolencanalsobeafactorinhowcitiestrackandreportcrimes.2Formoreinformationonexactlyhowtheinformationwasgathered,pleaserefertotheAbouttheDatasectionofthisanalysis.3AcurrentmapoftheninepolicedistrictsoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentisincludedintheAbouttheDatasectionofthisanalysis.4WhilethesedistrictscertainlyencompassmuchmoreoftheSt.LouispopulationthantheNorthSidearea,itistheonlyavailableinformationforanalyzingaspeci>icareaoftheCityfordatapriorto1990.5

PleaserefertotheAbouttheDatasectiontolearnmoreabouthowMissouriWonkestimatedthepopulationofdistrictsfourand>iveforeachdecade.6AsnotedintheAbouttheDatasection,thereisagapoftime,1985-1989,whereinformationatthedistrictlevelisunavailable,hencethegapintheDistrict4and5lineonthegraph.7TheSt.LouismetropolitanareaincludesFranklinCounty,JeffersonCounty,St.CharlesCounty,St.LouisCounty,andSt.LouisCity.8Thisquotewaspulledfrome-mailbetweenMissouriWonkandarepresentativeoftheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.9Alsousedtoestimatepopulationfor1970,1980,and1990.10ObtainedfromtheSt.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartmentwebsite,http://www.slmpd.org/your_info.html.

Notes
http://www.mowonk.com/http://www.slmpd.org/your_info.htmlhttp://www.slmpd.org/your_info.htmlhttp://www.slmpd.org/your_info.htmlhttp://www.slmpd.org/your_info.htmlhttp://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/


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NORTHSIDE CRIME

References

Disastercenter.com.MissouriCrimeRates1960-2011.Retrievedfromtheworldwidewebon

November27,2012fromhttp://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm .

Eddy,Joseph(MissouriDepartmentofCorrectionsBudgetDirector).Testimonybeforethe

MissouriGeneralAssemblyJointCommitteeonSentencingandCorrections.Obtained

fromtheworldwidewebonNovember27,2012fromhttp://

www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/.

McCollister,KathrynE.,MichaelT.French,andHaiFang.TheCostofCrimetoSociety:New

Crime-Speci>icEstimatesforPolicyandProgramEstimation.DrugAlcoholDepend.

2010April1;108(1-2):98-109.

MissouriDepartmentofCorrections.2010AnnualReport.2010.

MissouriDepartmentofCorrections.APro>ileoftheInstitutionalandSupervisedOffender

PopulationonJune302010.2010.

MissouriDepartmentofCorrections.APro>ileoftheInstitutionalandSupervisedOffender

PopulationonJune302011.2011.

MissouriSenateBill320.FiscalNote,SenateSubstitute-TrulyAgreedToandFinallyPassed.

96thGeneralAssembly,FirstRegularSession.2011.

MissouriStateHighwayPatrol.CrimeinMissouri2010.

St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.AnnualReports1970-1989.

St.LouisMetropolitanPoliceDepartment.CrimeStatistics.1990-2010.

U.SBureauoftheCensus.1970,1980,1990,and2000Censusinformationgatheredusingthe NeighborhoodChangeDatabase.1970-2000informationgatheredfromGeolytics,Inc.

U.S.BureauoftheCensus.1990CensusofPopulationandHousing.U.SDepartmentof

Commerce:EconomicsandStatisticsAdministration.1993.
http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.missourinet.com/2011/01/16/the-cost-of-an-inmate-audio/http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htmhttp://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htmhttp://www.mowonk.com/http://www.mowonk.com/


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ABOUT MISSOURI WONK

Missouri Wonk is a firm founded by Brian Schmidt that performs policy analysis services for businesses,

trade associations non-profits, campaigns, and government entities.

ABOUT BRIAN SCHMIDT

Brian Schmidt served as the Executive Director of the Missouri General Assemblys Joint Committee

on Tax Policy from 2005 through 2011. He received a Bachelor of Political Science degree at Truman

State University and a Master of Public Affairs- Public Policy degree at the University of Missouri-Columbia.

NORTHSIDE CRIME

U. S.BureauoftheCensus.AmericanCommunitySurvey.Dataanalyzedthroughtheuseof

Geolytics,Inc.software:ACS2006-2010Interface.DecennialCensus2010.

U.S.BureauofJusticeStatistics.Table3.Percentdistributionofexpenditureforthejustice

systembytypeofgovernment,>iscalyear2009(preliminary).2012.

Documents

NorthSide Regeneration Project white paper - Crime, by Missouri Wonk