North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011 Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011

Estimates, Budget and Precepts2012/2013 to 2016/2017


Background

Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017

Potential variability limits certainty 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current

year Not nearly as risky as 2013/2014 and beyond

2012/2013 Assumptions

Pay Award of between 0% and 2.5% General Price Inflation of 0% Zero Contribution From District Collection

Funds Marginal Increase in Taxbase Freeze Grant of between Nil and £560,000 Council Tax increase between 0% and 3.2%



Downward Pressure

Staff Cost Savings £843,000 Non Staff Savings £691,000 Income Generation £272,000 Pensions Neutral


Upward Pressure

Committed Staff Costs £284,000 Uncommitted Staff Costs £65,000 Committed Growth Non Staff £969,000 Capital Financing £213,000 Income Reduction £103,000 Contractual Inflation £148,000


A Balanced Base Budget

Marginal Decrease in Base Service Requirement of 0.1% (£30,000)

0.6% increase in Council Tax Manage Reduction in Budget (£110,000)

to achieve Zero Increase in Council Tax

2013/14 – 2016/17

2% Pay p.a and 3% 2016/17 2% pa increase in Council Tax Grant profile -8.5%, -5% (CLG) then +2%,

+2% General Non Staff Costs Pressures 3%p.a Then Balanced 2012/13 Budget requires

Savings of £3.47m


Variations on a Theme – No.1

Assume Pay increase of 2.5% 2012/2013 Increase Council Tax by 3.2% Nil Freeze Grant If Pay is 5% Increase Council Tax by 5.5% A realistic Pay Assumption? (Summary) 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.38m

required


Variation No.2

Assume Nil Pay Award 2012/13 Budget for zero increase in Council Tax

and claim Freeze Grant 2013/2014 to 2016/17: Savings of £3.49m

required


Variation No.3

Assume Pay Award of 2.5% 2012/13 Budget for zero increase in Council Tax Claim Freeze Grant which covers 2.5%

Pay Increase (c £500,000) 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £4.0m

required


Variation No.4

As V3 but Use Reserves in lieu of Savings Current Forecast £5.8m Gone by 2015/2016 Council Tax increase of 19% in 2015/16


Variation No.5

As V3 but let Council Tax take the Strain 12/13 - 3.2% 13/14 - 10.3% 14/15 - 6.0% 15/16 - 4.3% 16/17 - 2.7% Practical? A lost referendum would add

5.2%


Variation No.6

V4 and V5 Clearly Imprudent so it could be all about timing and Realism of assumptions (CPI of 2%?) So..Council Tax Freeze 2012/013 Use Some Reserves (£0.5m) 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.2m

required (Show Summary)



Strategy/Options

Still Much to be Determined Manageable in 2012/2013 but cashflow of

future reductions needs to be considered No Apparent Incentive to Increase Council Tax

for 2012/2013 “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase

2013/2014? Plan for V3, Settle for V6

Strategy/Options

Compliance – Need to Do? Cost Control Rationalisation General Savings and Efficiency Drives Reserves and/or Council Tax


Documents

North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011 Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017