North Texas 2050

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North Texas 2050

2010 by Vision North Texas

381 Casa Linda Plaza #147, Dallas, TX 75218

All rights reserved. Reproduction or use of the whole or any partof the contents without written permission of the copyright holder is prohibited.

The information and analysis contained in this report i s the result of a collaboration

by many individuals and organizations. Any errors or omissions are solely the respon-

sibility

of Vision North Texas.

The paper used for printing this report is SFI Certified.

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North Texas 2050 Production Team

Analysis & Recommendations

Vision North exas Research eam Members (see listing inAppendix)

Diagrams & MappingNorth Central Texas Council of Governments

Scott Miller

Rob Seeds

J Idowu

John Mwangeka

Jack idwell

John Promise

Drafting, Editing & LayoutStrategic Community Solutions

Karen Walz FAICPAlexis Massaro AICPSallye West

Graphic DesignOn-Q Design, Inc.Susan Scott eachey

PrintingAlphagraphics


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iiNorth Texas 2050

Management Committee

Acknowledgments

Fernando Costa, FAICPChairCity o Fort Worth, Assistant City Manager

Lyle DresherOther Cities RepresentativeCity o Argyle, own Administrator

Mike EastlandNorth Central Texas Council o GovernmentsRepresentativeNorth Central exas Council oGovernments, Executive Director

Lois FinkelmanEnvironmental RepresentativeTe National Recreation and ParkAssociation, Chair

Robert FolzenlogenMajor Employers RepresentativeHillwood Properties, Director o Planningand Development

Don GatzkeUniversity o Texas at ArlingtonRepresentativeUniversity o exas at Arlington, School oArchitecture, Dean

Ann Kovich, AICPDesign/Consulting RepresentativeHal Associates, Director o BusinessDevelopment

Danny ScarthFort Worth RepresentativeCity o Fort Worth, Fort Worth CouncilMember

Ron NatinskyDallas RepresentativeCity o Dallas, Dallas Council Member

John WalshUrban Land Institute RepresentativeIG Real Estate Services, Inc., ULINorth exas, Immediate Past President

Vision North Texas Charter Sponsors

* Vision North exas is able to carry out this initiative because o the support o its sponsors. Te 2009 and 2010 sponsors are listed below.


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North Texas 2050iii

Contents

Executive Summary................................................. Page 1

Overview................................................................... Page 2

People o North exas............................................. Page 7

rends and Projections ...................................... Page 12

Conclusions ........................................................ Page 14

A Vision or North exas........................................ Page 15

Guiding Principles or North exas 2050......... Page 15

A Preerred Future or North exas ................. Page 16

Preerred Future - Physical Development

Pattern.................................................................. Page 18

Preerred Future - Investment Framework...... Page 26

Action Package........................................................ Page 46

Contents o the Action Package........................ Page 46

Priority Action ools.......................................... Page 47

Action ools Online .......................................... Page 52

Appendix 1: VN Contributors............................. Page 53

Vision North exas Advisors ............................ Page 53

Vision North exas Sponsors ........................... Page 54

Vision North exas Research eam ................. Page 58

Appendix 2: List o Potential Action ools .......... Page 61

Appendix 3: Glossary ............................................. Page 64


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List of Exhibits

iv

Exhibit 2.1: Business As Usual (Scenario 1) ............................................................... Page 4

Exhibit 2.2: Connected Centers (Scenario 2) ............................................................. Page 4

Exhibit 2.3: Return On Investment (Scenario 3) ....................................................... Page 5

Exhibit 2.4: Diverse, Distinct Communities (Scenario 4) ........................................ Page 5

Exhibit 2.5: Green Region (Scenario 5) ...................................................................... Page 6

Exhibit 3.1: North exas Population, 1900 to 2000 ................................................... Page 8

Exhibit 3.2: Population Density by County, 2000 and 2009 ..................................... Page 8

Exhibit 3.3: Share o Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2008 ........................................ Page 9

Exhibit 3.4: North exas Population by Age & Sex, 2006 ........................................ Page 10

Exhinit 3.5: Selected Household Characteristics, 2007 ............................................ Page 10

Exhibit 3.6: Household and Market Characteristics, 2007 ....................................... Page 10

Exhibit 3.7: North exas Growth Projections ............................................................ Page 12

Exhibit 3.8: North exas Population By Age and Sex, 2030 ..................................... Page 13

Exhibit 4.1: ransect ..................................................................................................... Page 18

Exhibit 4.2: Preerred Future Diagram ........................................................................ Page 20

Exhibit 4.3: Mixed Use Center Criteria ....................................................................... Page 23

Exhibit 4.4: Population Capacity o Preerred Future Diagram ................................ Page 25

North Texas 2050


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Executive Summary

North Texas 20501 Executive Summary

North exas the sixteen county region surrounding Dallas and FortWorth is the ourth largest region in the nation. Its population isexpected to reach almost 12 million by the year 2050. How can Northexas accommodate that growth? What quality o lie will residentsexperience ten, twenty or orty years rom now? Te decisions madetoday by investors, homeowners, businesses and other stakeholderswill determine the answers to these questions.

Vision North exas is a private, public and academic partnershipcreated to serve as a orum or dialogue and action on theseimportant issues. Beginning with a regional visioning workshop in

2005, the partnership has involved people rom all parts o the regionin the consideration o choices or the regions uture. Aer ve yearso workshops, presentations, research and debate, seven conclusionsare clear:

* Te North exas region will ace a signicant amount o growth inthe next several decades.

* Current inrastructure is not adequate to meets the needs o thisgrowth.

* A continuation o the development patterns o the past leads tosignicant impacts on the regions air, water, land and naturalresources.

* Te market o the uture is more likely to want a dierent type ocommunity one that is more compact, walkable and with naturalassets and urban amenities nearby.

* Te past patterns cannot be changed by the actions o one or a ewdecision-makers. Choices made by many stakeholders will aectthe result.

* A shared vision and more complete inormation or thesestakeholders oers the region a better chance to achieve adesirable uture.

* North exans want a uture that is better than the one orecast bya continuation o business as usual trends.

TisNorth Texas 2050document describes the preerred utureenvisioned by Vision North exas participants. It is the resulto collaboration o experts in many proessional elds, input ointerested residents and direction rom regional leaders. Tedocument contains two major sections that present a 2050 vision andthe actions to achieve it.

Te rst major section, A Vision or North Texas, proposes a VisionStatement and a set o twelve Guiding Principles or the regionsgrowth and development. It describes a preerred uture or North

exas by identiying ve policy areas (natural, rural, separatecommunity, outer tier and inner tier), each with its own challengesand opportunities, and two types o important centers (employmentcenters and mixed use centers) that are ocal points or the regionand its communities. Tis physical development pattern is served byan investment ramework that integrates eight areas o investment regional ecosystem, community character and orm, economy,housing, mobility, climate resilience, education and health. A seto policy recommendations addresses the role o this investmentramework throughout the region and in each policy area and type ocenter.

Te second major section, Action Package, identies the tools andtechniques needed or action to achieve this vision. Te actionpackage includes incentives, best practices, model ordinances andtemplates, technical assistance, benchmarks & indicators, newinstitutions/entities, regional coordination & collaboration, andcommunication. It concludes with a set o priority actions or 2010 a list o the top 20 items that should receive the greatest amounto attention and action, and a list o the next 10 items that addressindividual issues and innovative research. Tis proposed actionagenda should be the ocus o next steps to achieve the North Texas2050preerred uture.


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North Texas 2050 2

Overview

Business as Usual Not the Preferred Future

I current trends continue, the 16-county North exas region willhave over 75% more people in 2030 than in 2000, and the populationwill more than double by 2050. Tese trends create a business asusual uture or North exas that is very dierent rom the quality olie people nd in the region today.

New neighborhoods built by 2030 will be developed at substantiallylower densities than those in existing urban areas. Such low densityneighborhoods mean that almost all trips must be by car, adding totrac congestion and air pollution. Health research has documentedhigher levels o obesity and related problems or residents o theseneighborhoods, leading to increased pressures on the regions healthcare system.

Due to this development pattern, the region is expected to lose900,000 acres o agricultural land, as well as substantial areas onatural habitat. Te amount o impervious surace in the region(buildings and pavement) will double, increasing runo and aectingwater quality in streams, severity o foods and the temperaturesexperienced by people in the regions urban areas. More than hal

o the new households will live in the watersheds o the regionswater supply lakes, aecting the water quality o these lakes and thedrinking water they provide.

Over 1/3 o the regions households will live outside todays urbanareas. In addition to these eects noted above, this shi also makes itless likely that the existing neighborhoods and communities closer tothe regions core will remain vital and desirable because inrastructureinvestments and tax base will be ocused on the newer, outlying urbanareas.

Business as usual means additional inrastructure but, withcurrent resources, investments cannot keep pace with demand. Fortransportation acilities, the anticipated investment o almost $71billion rom 2007 to 2030 does not improve conditions. Instead,it results in 66% more hours lost to travel delay in 2030 and acongestion cost o $6.6 billion (compared to $4.2 billion in 2007).In 2050, existing water supplies are not sucient to meet the needso this urban area and North exans will need 21% more electricityproduction capacity than is currently available.

Finally, this development pattern may not even oer the housingchoices that the market o the uture will demand. Stakeholderpreerences, changing demographics and liestyle choices, newtechnologies or work and communication, and economic optionsor businesses and employees all suggest that the market o the uturewill not be met by the housing options o the past. Instead, marketdemand is expected to avor more compact neighborhoods wherewalking and biking are easible options or many trips and where aresident can enjoy both the advantages o an urban location as well asthe assets o a natural setting.

North exas has grown successully and dramatically over the past 40

years. But more o the same will not be successul or sustainable orthe next 40 years. Tis conclusion and the desire or a uture thatis better than this business as usual scenario has been supportedconsistently in discussions with North exans during the past veyears. Trough the work o Vision North exas, a new vision or theuture has emerged that accommodates anticipated growth and oersa higher quality o lie and a better uture. TisNorth Texas 2050document presents this preerred uture and proposes action to makeit a reality.

Overview


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North Texas 20503 Overview

Vision North Texas

The Partnership

Vision North exas is a partnership o private, public, and academicorganizations working to increase awareness about the growthexpected in North exas and to involve people and organizations ininitiatives that accommodate that growth successully and sustainably.Te partnerships three Charter Sponsors are the Urban LandInstitutes North exas District Council (ULIN), the North Centralexas Council o Governments (NCCOG) and the University oexas at Arlington (UA); many other organizations participate aspartners and sponsors. Vision North exas activities are directedby a 10-member Management Committee representing the CharterSponsors and other leaders in the private, public and academic

sectors, and are guided by more than 75 Advisors representing keyprivate and public sector entities.

Vision North exas brings together people rom diverse backgroundsand perspectives to discuss common interests, understand dierences,and nd solutions. It educates people about the change and growthour region is acing, and about the options we have to successullyaccommodate this growth. It is the regions orum to debate and agreeon a shared vision or our region and a practical action program tocreate that uture. It provides North exas decision-makers with thetools they need to make better choices that will make this vision areality.

Vision North Texas Activities and Accomplishments

Te Vision North exas partnership began its work by hosting aregional visioning workshop, held in April 2005 at the Universityo exas at Arlington. Tis workshop brought together a diversegroup o nearly 200 stakeholders rom across the region to discussalternatives to the pattern o urban growth currently projected orthe area. During the visioning workshop, participants dened 15alternative development scenarios that could provide increased

quality o lie, sustainability and economic vitality or the people whowill live and work here in the uture. Evaluation o these scenariosshowed they could provide North exas with signicant economic

and environmental benetsmore than $15 billion in transportationcost savings, in one case.

Following the 2005 workshop, leaders rom across the regionurged Vision North exas to continue this important work. VisionNorth exas has now completed more than 150 workshops andpresentations and conducted research on issues such as creation oa regional greenprint and support or development best practices.A Leadership Summit in 2006 engaged the elected and appointedleaders o the regions cities and counties. In 2007 and 2008, oursubregional workshops involved diverse stakeholders throughout theregion in a more detailed discussion o the best ways to accommodate

anticipated growth. Since 2005, Vision North exas has involvedand heard rom hundreds o stakeholders who share a vision or asustainable North exas and who overwhelmingly urged our regionto take action.

In September 2007, the Vision North exas leadership began anambitious eort to create North exas 2050. Te process to developthis gamebook has included three phases o work, extensiveresearch and participation by a wide range o stakeholders, leadersand decision-makers. Each phase has produced a major reportand has concluded with a stakeholder event. Tese results aresummarized below and are documented in reports available at www.

visionnorthtexas.org.

Regional Choices for North Texas

Tis report contains inormation and research on the range o issuesaecting the lives o the people who live and work in North exasnow and in the uture. It was developed through a collaborativeresearch eort including experts in elds rom housing to orestry tourban design. Te report establishes a baseline o inormation aboutthe current characteristics o the North exas region. It summarizes


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North Texas 2050 4Overview

the regions current plans or its uture and projections o growthtrends, both o which generally describe the expected uture underbusiness as usual. It also describes eorts that are already underway

that are changing those trends. Lastly, it suggests our possiblealternatives to the business as usual uture.

Tis report was presented and discussed at a Regional Summit heldin December 2008. Expert panelists and participants reviewedthe report and discussed its implications or specic issues such aswater and energy. Summit participants strongly supported the needor a uture that was better than business as usual. Tey providedeedback on the set o potential alternatives to that uture.

Scenarios

In early 2009, the Vision North exas Research eam used thisstakeholder input to nalize a set o ve alternative utures or theregion. In all cases, the region was expected to have about 9.5 millionresidents and 5.6 million jobs in 2030 and almost 12 million residentsand over 7 million jobs in 2050.

Scenario 1: Business as UsualTis scenario represents the region as it will exist in 2030 i privateand public decision-makers continue in the direction the regionis headed today. It is based on the North Central exas Councilo Governments 2030 Forecast and distribution o growth, withadditional assumptions regarding development patterns in the

regions outlying counties. Exhibit 2.1 shows the concept or thisscenario.

Scenario 2: Connected CentersTis scenario envisions a region where people have more choicesabout how they connect to the places where they live, work and play.Exhibit 2.2 indicates the general concept applied to the region.

With this scenario, many human-scale mixed use centers would belocated throughout North exas. Tese centers might be similarto the development projects created in recent years near DAR

Exhibit 2.1: Business As Usual (Scenario 1)

Exhibit 2.2: Connected Centers (Scenario 2)


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North Texas 20505 Overview

light rail stations. Te investment ramework associated with thisscenario emphasizes mobility choices within and between the centers,including trails/paths, public transportation (bus, streetcar, light

rail and commuter rail) and routes or travel by car. In Exhibit 2.2,important roadway connections are shown in brown and importantrail connections are shown in green.

Scenario 3: Return on InvestmentTis scenario envisions a region that maximizes the benet receivedrom the extensive investment taxpayers and property owners havemade in the regions existing inrastructure and development pattern.Exhibit 2.3 shows the scenario diagram or this alternative, withblue shading in the area that is currently included in transportationplanning. Te green shading shows areas that are generally urban(they have existing development or existing inrastructure). In this

scenario, the growth through 2030 would be mostly contained inthese green areas, where urban-scale inrastructure already exists.Development would emphasize inll, revitalization and maintenanceo existing communities.

Scenario 4: Diverse, Distinct CommunitiesTis scenario creates a region with dierent sorts o communities andcenters, built on the traditional character o regional communities butdesigned to meet the needs o the regions uture markets. Instead oocusing on quantities (o new population or o acility capacity), itocuses on qualities the eatures, places and experiences that makeone community stand out rom another and that encourage residents

to develop strong and lasting ties to their own community. Exhibit2.4 shows the scenario diagram or this alternative. It supportsreinvestment and development in downtown Dallas, downtownFort Worth and in the downtowns o other communities aroundthe region, providing regional support or the eorts many o thesecommunities have underway.

Exhibit 2.3: Return On Investment (Scenario 3)

Exhibit 2.4: Diverse, Distinct Communities (Scenario 4)


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North Texas 2050 6Overview

Scenario 5: Green RegionTis alternative emphasizes green development or natural assetsas the oundation or uture regional growth. Exhibit 2.5 shows

the scenario diagram o this concept. It is based on an initialidentication o natural assets and open spaces that create agreen inrastructure or the region and that should be protectedor enhanced. It also emphasizes support or green jobs, the useo alternative energy sources and LEED building standards, andsustainable community design.

Exhibit 2.5: Green Region (Scenario 5)

Alternatives Analysis

A research team o experts evaluated these alternative utures or theregion. Te results were striking. All our alternatives did a betterjob o addressing transportation concerns compared to the BusinessAs Usual scenario. Te Health Research eam concluded that theDiverse, Distinct Communities and Green Region scenarios weremost likely to support healthy people and communities. Housingindicators suggest that the Connected Centers scenario would dothe most to achieve objectives or housing intensity and aordability.Te Return on Investment and Green Region scenarios were mostsuccessul in addressing water and natural asset objectives.

A stakeholder session in September 2009 provided the opportunityor North exans to discuss these results and add their own

perspectives. Participants provided input on the advantages anddrawbacks o the our alternative scenarios. Tey strongly supporteda preerred uture that was better than business as usual.

North Texas 2050

TisNorth Texas 2050document is the culmination o the VisionNorth exas initiative. Based on stakeholder input, expert researchand the guidance o regional leaders, its Vision or North exas(Chapter 4) describes a uture that current residents would liketo achieve and its Action Package (Chapter 5) proposes tools andtechniques that can be used by many dierent private and public

decision-makers to help achieve this regional vision.Following the release oNorth Texas 2050at the Regional Summit inMarch 2010, the Vision North exas Charter Sponsors, partners andother public and private organizations will be asked to consider theserecommendations, endorse this vision and use their own investmentsand decisions to help achieve this preerred uture.


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North Texas 2050

The People of North Texas


People live in North exas or many reasons some were born hereand others moved here or school or a job opportunity. One o themain goals o Vision North exas is to gain a better understanding othe people who live and work here today and those who are expected

to be here in the uture. What kind o place do North exans wantor living and working? was asked continually throughout theprocess.

Current research shows that North exas is growing, aging andbecoming more ethnically diverse. Where people live and work todaywill not be the same in 2050 due to the changes in demographics,as well as changing technology, liestyle choices, job markets,transportation choices and other actors. For example, baby boomersare retiring and moving into a dierent phase o their lives. Teirhousing preerence is likely to change as a result.

In order or the North exas region to be as successul and sustainableas possible in the uture, the changing needs and preerences o thepeople who live and work here must be understood. Te area needsto be ready or this expanding and changing market demand. In thischapter o the report, the current and uture demographics o Northexas residents are examined.

Existing Conditions 1

Regional Population

Te sixteen county region that is the ocus o Vision North exashad slightly more than a hal million people when the 20th centurybegan (Exhibit 3.1). By the beginning o the 21st century, the regions

population had increased nearly ten-old, to 5.3 million. Most o thatgrowth occurred aer World War II, as this region saw the dramaticexpansion o jobs and growth o suburban neighborhoods thatcharacterized much o the Sunbelt.

oday, the sixteen-county North Central exas region is home toover 6.5 million people. It is more populous than many countriesincluding Jordan, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and New Zealand. Teregion is the 4th largest nationwide aer only New York, Los Angelesand Chicago. Nearly eighty-six percent o the regions populationis concentrated in our core counties: Collin, Dallas, Denton and

arrant.

Exhibit 3.2 reects the sixteen-county population totals or the latestCensus (2000) and the NCCOG population totals (2008). Tepopulation o each county has increased by an average o thirty-one

1 Much o the inormation in this chapter is drawn rom more detailedanalysis in earlier Vision North exas reports. Please review RegionalChoices or North exas and North exas Alternative Futures or moreinormation.

7 North Texas 2050 The People of North Texas


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North Texas 2050 8

percent over the last eight years. Rockwall County experienced thehighest growth rate at seventy-six percent and Dallas County wasamong the lowest at ten percent. Despite the low population increase,Dallas County still holds the largest share, thirty-seven percent, o the6.5 million people who reside in the North exas region.

Population Density

Te 6.5 million people living in North exas are not evenly distributedacross the 16-county region. Te most densely populated county isDallas with more than our people or each acre o land. Te leastpopulated county is Palo Pinto. Located on the western edge o theregion, Palo Pinto has twenty-one acres o land or every person livingin the county. Over the last eight years, all o the core counties andmany o the outer counties experienced an increase in populationdensity. Rockwall and Collin counties showed the greatest percentagechange in density. For some counties, the change was insignicant. No

county experienced a decline in density.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Residents(Thousands)

Rest of Region Dallas Fort Worth

Exhibit 3.2: Population Density by County, 2000 and 2009

Exhibit 3.1: North Texas Population, 1900 to 2000

County

Census 2000

Population

NCTCOG 2008

Population

Percent Change

2000-2008

Area (in

acres)

2000 Population

Density (persons

per acre)

2008 Population

Density (persons

per acre)

Percent

Change in

Density (2000-

2008)

Collin 491,675 748,050 52% 566,851 0.9 1.3 52%

Dallas 2,218,899 2,451,800 10% 581,279 3.8 4.2 10%

Denton 432,976 614,650 42% 610,108 0.7 1 42%

Ellis 111,360 147,850 33% 608,915 0.2 0.2 33%

Erath 33,001 38,550 17% 697,446 0 0.1 17%Hood 41,100 54,900 34% 279,519 0.1 0.2 34%

Hunt 76,596 91,600 20% 564,381 0.1 0.2 20%

Johnson 126,811 159,750 26% 469,982 0.3 0.3 26%

Kaufman 71,313 102,550 44% 516,425 0.1 0.2 44%

Navarro 45,124 49,500 10% 695,131 0.1 0.1 10%

Palo Pinto 27,026 29,600 10% 630,583 0 0 10%

Parker 88,495 120,300 36% 582,327 0.2 0.2 36%

Rockwall 43,080 76,000 76% 95,211 0.5 0.8 76%

Somervell 6,809 9,100 34% 122,805 0.1 0.1 34%

Tarrant 1,446,219 1,780,150 23% 577,162 2.5 3.1 23%

Wise 48,793 64,500 32% 590,386 0.1 0.1 32%

Region 5,309,277 6,538,850 Avg. Change = 31% 8,188,511 0.6 0.8 23%



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North Texas 20509

Ethnicity and Diversity of the Region

In 2008, approximately y-our percent o North Central exanswere white, twenty-seven percent were Hispanic, ourteen percentwere black, and the remaining ve percent were Asian or o anotherrace (Exhibit 3.3). Dallas County is by ar the largest and most raciallyand ethnically diverse county in the North Central exas region. Tedominant group in Dallas County is the Hispanic population, which is

larger both in terms o absolute number and percentages than in anyother North Central exas county. Collin County has a relatively largeshare o the regions Asian population. Tis is reected in their greaterthan ten percent showing in the other category. With the exceptiono Navarro, the rural counties tend to be much less diverse than theirurban neighbors.

Overall, the North exas Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)spopulation density was 1.01 persons per acre in 2005. Bycomparison, the New York and Los Angeles MSAs had population

densities over 4 persons per acre. When just the areas in urbandevelopment are considered population density o the developedparts o the 16-county North exas region was 4.3 persons per acre in2001.

Leading health issues or North exans today include obesity,cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Obesity, which stems primarilyrom poor nutrition and lack o physical activity, continues toincrease. According to the Centers o Disease Control and Preventionthe percentage o overweight and obese population increased rom61.8 percent in 2004 to 63.6 percent in 2008 in the Fort Worth-

Arlington MMSA. Te Dallas-Plano-Irving MMSA increased rom61.9 percent to 65.4 percent.

Exhibit 3.3: Share of Population by Race/Ethnicity,

2008

Te population pyramid displayed in Exhibit 3.4, is a breakdown othe North exas regions population by age and gender as o the year2006. Te median age or all people in the area is about 33.5 years.Sixty-one percent o the population is located within the workorcecategory (ages 20-64) and twenty-two percent o the population isschool aged children (ages 5-19), with the remaining nine percent o

the population located in the seniors category (ages 65-85+) and ninepercent in the under ve category (0-4).



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North Texas 2050 10

Exhibit 3.4: North Texas Population by Age & Sex,

2006

Household Characteristics

A household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit astheir usual place o residents. A amily is a group o two or morepeople who reside together and who are related by birth, marriage, oradoption.

en North Central exas counties have a population o at least 65,000.Exhibit 3.5 shows o these top ten counties, Kauman has the highestaverage number o persons per household (3.36); arrant has thelowest (2.77). Te average number o people in each household is 2.65.In most o the counties, orty to orty-ve percent o the householdshave children.

Fiy-six percent o all housing units in Dallas County are occupiedby the units owner. Tis gure is twelve percentage points lower thanany other county except or arrant,where there is a seven pointdierence. At nearly eighty-our percent, Rockwall has the highestpercentage o owner-occupied housing units.

Seventy percent o Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area residents live inamilies (Exhibit 3.6). wenty-ve percent live alone and ve percentlive in households with at least one other, non-related person.

Exhibit 3.5: Selected Household Characteristics, 2007

County

Number of

Households

Average

Household

Size

Households

with children

Households

with seniors

(60+)

ous ng

units

which are

owner

occupied

Collin 256,954 2.82 42.6% 20.0% 72.5%

Dallas 829,143 2.82 39.3% 24.2% 56.3%

Denton 201,202 2.98 41.9% 17.7% 67.8%

Ellis 45,924 3.08 45.2% 26.6% 75.6%

Hunt 28,925 2.79 34.5% 35.9% 69.3%

Johnson 47,546 3.10 40.5% 29.2% 74.7%

Kaufman 28,442 3.36 42.5% 27.5% 77.0%

Parker 35,895 2.95 42.7% 28.9% 81.5%

Rockwall 23,905 3.04 45.6% 23.6% 83.5%

Tarrant 610,185 2.77 40.3% 23.7% 63.4%

Exhibit 3.6: Household and Market Characteristics,

2007

Dallas - Fort

Worth - ArlingtonPercent US Percent

Family Households with

Children786,656 37% 34,999,584 31%

Other Family

Households 695,723 33% 40,119,676 36%Single Person

Households w/ Seniors122,890 6% 10,264,914 9%

Other Single Person

Households411,543 19% 20,380,226 18%

Other Non-Family

Households111,836 5% 6,613,577 6%

Totals 2,128,648 100% 112,377,977 100%



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North Texas 205011

Exhibit 3.6 shows that North exas has a larger proportion ohouseholds with children than does the U.S. as a whole. Some notablecharacteristics o these amilies are:

* O the regions amilies with children, sixty-ve percent haveschool-aged children, between the ages o six and seventeen.About seventeen percent have very young children (aged threeyears and under). For these amilies, the quality o schools is oenan important determinant in housing selection. Tese are thehouseholds that typiy the traditional composition o a householdin the region and the nation.

* More than eighty percent o North Central exas amilies live indetached, single-amily structures. O all amilies, three percentlive in a mobile home, trailer, RV or some other place.

* Only twelve percent o North Central exas amilies currently livein apartment buildings.

* Approximately twenty-ve percent o amilies with seven or moremembers live in apartments or other multi-unit buildings.

* Even though households with children are a larger share ohouseholds in North exas than in the U.S., they still account oronly thirty-seven percent o the regions households.

Fully a quarter o all households in North exas today include onlyone person. Some notable characteristics o these households are:

* More o these households live in apartments than in single-amily

homes. Approximately the same proportions o these householdslive in single amily detached homes as in large apartmentbuildings (those with 5 or more units in the structure). 7% livein apartments in buildings with 2 to 4 units and 4% live in singleamily units, such as townhomes.

* O the regions single householders, about 23 percent are young,between the ages o 15 and 34.

* Seniors between the ages o 65 and 74 account or 2.6% o these

households. Tese householdsmay t the image o emptynesters or retirees interested in

living close to cultural activitiesand less interested in maintaininga large house and yard.

* Seniors older than 74 account or3.2% o these households. Tesehouseholds may have specialconcerns about accessibility and proximity to medical care andother services. Tey may be particularly disadvantaged i theirneighborhoods lack public transportation and they can no longerdrive a car themselves.

Households with two or more non-related people comprise more than5% o North exas households. Tey may be interested in the spaceaorded by a single amily detached home, but may also be interestedin proximity to services and amenities; they are less likely to beconcerned about school quality when selecting a home.

Household Income

In 2007, hal o area households had an income o at least $54,730,which is higher than both the state median o $47,548, and thenational median o $50,740. Te estimated median income or theDFW area is just below the gure or the Austin MSA. However, theAustin metro area has less than one-third as many households as doesthe DFW metro. DFWs median income is higher than the medianincomes o the Houston and San Antonio MSAs.



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North Texas 2050 12

Trends and Projections

Overall Growth Projections

Te North Central exas Council o Governments prepares long-range demographic orecasts or the ten counties surrounding andincluding the Dallas-Fort-Worth area. Te orecasts are developed toprovide a uniorm base or regional planning and resource allocation.Te 2030 projections produced by NCCOG use the year 2000 asa base year and project population and employment in ve-yearincrements to 2030. Separate rom its 2030 orecasts, NCCOG alsodeveloped projections or the 16-county region through 2050. Teseprojections are solely or use in this Vision North exas project, notor other modeling purposes. As Exhibit 3.7 shows, this sixteen

county area is expected to have over 9.4 million total population andover 5.5 million non-construction jobs by the year 2030. In addition,by 2050, the region is expected to have almost 12 million people andover 7 million jobs. Tis represents an average annual populationgrowth rate o 2.4% or the time rame rom 2000. NCCOGorecasts reect only one set o growth assumptions. I circumstanceschange, real growth outcomes might be considerably dierent. Terecent economic downturn is not expected to signicantly changethese long term projections.

Demographic Trends

wo actors will dominate North Central exas demographic trends

over the next twenty years. Tese are increasing diversity and theaging o the regions population. Te growth in non-white groups willbe driven by migration and natural increase (births and deaths in theregion). Te regions strong job market and international connectivityattract workers o all skill levels rom all over the world. As long as theregions economy remains moderately strong, internal and externalmigration to the area is expected to continue. While ertility ratesor non-white groups have been declining, they are still considerablyhigher than rates or whites. Even with mortality rates actored in, therates o growth or most non-white groups, particularly Hispanics,outpace that o whites.

Age group numbers are becoming more evenly distributed; equalnumbers o children, parents, young proessionals and seniors.In 2006 the population distribution was shaped very much like apyramid hence the name population pyramid. By 2030 and 2050,the shape o the regions population will bear less resemblance to apyramid and more like a rectangle (Exhibit 3.8). Tis is primarilydue to the aging o the large baby boom generation. Te other actoraecting the shape o the distribution will be migration, since peoplemoving to this region tend to be those in the labor orce young andmiddle-aged adults.

As or the diversity o the region, there will be a higher percentageo Hispanic and Asian residents in the uture. By 2050 the Hispanicpopulation is projected to be 4.1 million and the Asian population isprojected to be 1.1 million, which combined is higher than the total

White population and considerably higher than the Black population.

Exhibit 3.7: North Texas Growth Projections

2000 2030 2050

Population

(millions)Total Population 5.31 9.49 11.66

Total Employment 3.22 5.58 7.17

Total Households 1.94 3.48 4.38



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North Texas 205013

Despite the impact o the aging baby boomers, natural increase andmigration will keep the median age relatively close to the currentgure. In 2030, the median age o the total population is projected tobe about 34.7 years.

Te share o some key age groups will be dierent than in the past,

however. In 2006, people in the age group that provides most othe labor orce (ages 20 through 64) comprised 61% o the regionspopulation. In 2030, this age group will comprise only 57% o thepopulation. On the other hand, seniors aged 65 to 84 were only 7% othe population in 2006 and will be 13% o the population in 2030. Inact, the age groups with the highest percentage increase rom 2006 to2030 are those rom 70 to 74 and 75 to 79.

Housing Demand

Demand or housing reects the character o the people who live in

North exas. Choices or housing -- and neighborhoods -- oen varywith a persons amily composition and stage o lie. Also, increasingcosts (in time and money) o commuting and a growing interest in agreen liestyle are making housing close to jobs more desirable. Temix o housing available in North exas in the uture should meet theneeds o North exas changing households.

By 2030, the region is expected to have over 3.5 million people livingin households in the 16-county Vision North exas region and4.4 million by 2050. Household sizes, which have been generallydeclining or decades, are expected to continue to decline. However,

the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as in the past. In act, theaverage household size or the orecast area in 2030 is likely to be veryclose to the current household size as populations increase or thoseracial/ethnic groups that have historically had larger households.

Tese demographic changes will result in changes to the housingdemand in the region. Te sheer number o older and non-whiteresidents will impact both the quantity and type o housing demandedin North Central exas as well as the location o that housing.

Aging homeowners looking to downsize and trade in home mainte-

nance or community living will certainly contribute to changes inhousing demand. Tere is also likely to be an increase in demand orhousing near transit. Also, expansion o the regions transit systemswill locate stations closer to more neighborhoods, businesses andother destinations, making this a more convenient choice or morepeople.

Funding or expansion o the regions transit system must be securedso the needs o this growing market can be met and the neighbor-

Exhibit 3.8: North Texas Population By Age and Sex,

2030



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North Texas 2050 14

hoods, businesses and majordestinations in the region canbe served with convenient

transit.

Te Center or ransit-Oriented Development hascalculated the market ortransit-oriented develop-ment, now and in the uture,or the 42 metropolitan areas that have xed rail transit systems thatexist now or are planned to be in place in 2030. Te Dallas region isexpected to see a very large increase in the demand or housing withinone-hal mile o transit stations. Tis market segment was estimatedat 46,429 households in 2007; the study projects that there will be270,676 households in this transit-oriented housing market in 2030.o accommodate this anticipated demand, development around tran-sit stations should include a variety o housing types and price levels.

Living alone has become an increasingly common choice. Singleperson households have increased over recent years and are orecastedto rise steadily. oday twenty-six percent o the households in thesixteen county area are single-person households. By 2013 singleperson households will make up an average o twenty-seven percent

o all total households. Economics and shiing social norms aresome o the reasons or the rise. Te single person housing choice isa lot smaller and closer to urban areas than the typical 3-bedroomhouse that amilies want. Single person households are also a majorcomponent o homeowners. In 2005, the Dallas Morning Newsreported that 47% o the mortgagees in the region were singles.

Conclusions

Troughout the ve-year Vision North exas process, the

demographics o the region were closely considered. In orderto plan or the uture o North exas, an understanding o thecharacteristics o the people who live here is necessary. Housingtypes and locational choice are changing as the populationbecomes more diverse. Te needs and choices o smalleramilies and amilies without children are redening how citiesand communities are planned and which housing types aredemanded in the marketplace.

Tere are opportunities as a result o the changing demographicsor cities and rst ring suburbs to attract baby boomers,

households without children and young proessionals.Toughtul planning or the uture based on these localdemographic changes and preerences is one o the principles oVision North exas. Te recommendations in thisNorth Texas2050document should help this region respond to these changesand better meet the needs o our communities, businesses andcurrent and uture residents.

Troughout the ve-year Vision North exas process, thedemographics, business climate, transportation network,sustainability and other actors aecting the Region were closely

considered. In order to plan or the uture o North exas, anunderstanding o the people who live, work and travel to andthrough here is necessary. Housing types and locational choiceare changing as the population becomes more diverse, the needso businesses evolve, transportation networks and options changeand the region, nation and world become more connected.Te needs and choices o smaller amilies and amilies withoutchildren, changing populations are redening how citiesand communities are planned and which housing types aredemanded in the marketplace.



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A Vision for North Texas

North Texas 2050

Te people o North exas do not view business as usual as adesirable uture. Tey want a uture that is better than that. Tismessage was expressed throughout the Vision North exas process.It was heard at stakeholder workshops throughout the region, atmeetings ranging rom regional realtor conerences and individualCity Council sessions to Rotary Clubs and sustainability events, as

well as in written and electronic comments. Tis chapter oNorthTexas 2050describes a uture that balances concerns about theeconomy, the environment and the people. It creates a uture that isdesired by a broad range o North exas stakeholders.

Tis chapter presents this vision in three increasingly specicsections. First, a broad Vision Statement is presented. Tis visionrefects the most important themes or North exans. Second, a seto twelve Guiding Principles add more detail to this vision. Tird, aPreerred Future or North exas recommends a pattern or physicaldevelopment and a ramework or investment that enable decision-

makers throughout the region to apply these principles to their ownproperties, businesses and communities.

Vision Statement

North exas is recognized worldwide as a region that sustains itseconomic success and vitality because it contains many distinctiveand highly desirable communities, supports innovative people andbusinesses and nurtures its varied natural assets.

* It contains diverse neighborhoods, mixed use centers andcommunities that appeal to people o all income levels and at allstages o their lives.

* It is a preerred location or the employees and businesses thatcomprise the broad-based and innovative local economy.

* It oers residents and businesses access to resources and

opportunities that lead to their long-term success.* It protects, manages and enhances critical natural areas and uses

energy and natural resources responsibly.* It supports resilient and eective responses to change through

collaboration and cooperation within the region.

Guiding Principles for North Texas 2050

Guiding Principles supplement the Vision Statement by providinga more precise description o the regions preerred uture. Tese

Guiding Principles update the Principles o Development Excellenceadopted or North exas in 2001. Tey are based on the input ostakeholders at Vision North exas workshops and events. Teprinciples listed below are all important; they are not listed in ordero priority.

15 A Vision for North Texas


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North Texas 2050 16

1. Development Diversity Meet the needs o changing marketsby providing a mix o development options and land use types incommunities throughout the region.

2. Efficient Growth Promote reinvestment and redevelopmentin areas with existing inrastructure, ensure that newinrastructure supports orderly and sustainable growth, andprovide coordinated regional systems o natural and builtinrastructure.

3. Pedestrian Design Create and connect pedestrian-(andbicyclist) oriented neighborhoods, centers and places throughoutthe region.

4. Housing Choice Sustain and acilitate a range o housingopportunities and choices that meet the needs o residents o alleconomic levels and at all stages o lie.

5. Activity Centers Create mixed use developments that arecenters o neighborhoods and community activities and serve ashubs o non-automobile transportation systems.

6. Environmental Stewardship Protect, retain or enhance theregions important natural assets (including its air, water, land andorests) and integrate these natural eatures and systems into thecharacter o the regions communities and the experiences o its

residents.

7. Quality Places Strengthen the identities o the regionsdiverse communities through preservation o signicant historicstructures and natural assets, creation o new landmarks andgathering spaces, use o compatible architectural and landscapedesign, and support or the activities and institutions that makeeach community unique.

8. Efficient Mobility Options Invest in transportation systems,acilities and operations that provide multi-modal choices orthe ecient and sustainable movement o people, goods, and

services.

9. Resource Efficiency Design buildings, sites, communitiesand regional systems to use water, energy, and renewableresources responsibly, eectively and eciently, and to retainnon-renewable resources or the use o uture generations.

10. Educational Opportunity Provide opportunities orall North exans to have access to the schools, people andtechnology they need or success in learning throughout theirlives.

11. Healthy Communities Identiy and support unctional,sustainable inrastructure and institutions that oer North exansaccess to aordable, nutritious oods, opportunities or physicalactivity, and access to wellness and primary care services.

12. Implementation Achieve the regions vision by adoption ocompatible comprehensive plans and ordinances or cities andconsistent investment plans or regional systems; involve citizensand stakeholders in all aspects o these planning processes.

A Preferred Future for North Texas

Achieving this North Texas 2050Vision requires change rombusiness as usual. More o the same will not create the region thatstakeholders have said they want. Te twelve Guiding Principlesgive decision-makers additional insight into the uture envisionedthrough this process, but they provide a very broad descriptiono this direction. Te clearer picture o this preerred uture is



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North Texas 205017

ound in the ollowing sections, which describe both apreerred pattern or the regions physical developmentand a preerred approach to the regions investment

ramework. Te policy recommendations ound inthese sections are directed at public, private, academicand civic decision-makers. Some recommendationsare also provided or action by individuals, households,businesses and local neighborhood and businessorganizations.

Te choices made by all these decision-makers willcombine to determine the North exas that will actually

exist in the year 2050. Tese decision-makers must consider theeconomics o their choices; or long-term success and sustainability,

they must also consider the implications o their choices or theregions environment and communities. By communicating,collaborating and making decisions that support a shared vision, themany individual choices and investments made by these regionaldecision-makers will be most likely to produce a region that is similarto the one described by the stakeholders who have participated inVision North exas.

Futures that are Better Than Business As Usual

During 2009, Vision North exas used stakeholder input to dene

our alternatives to the business as usual uture represented by theNorth Central exas Council o Governments 2030 Forecast. Toseour alternatives were:

Connected Centers. Tis scenario envisions a region wherepeople have more choices about how they connect to the places wherethey live, work and play.

Return on Investment. Tis scenario envisions a region thatmaximizes the benet received rom the extensive investment

* Begin with the identication o important natural assets and aninvestment ramework using alternative energy sources, LEEDbuilding standards and conversation to make more eective use o

natural resources, as suggested in the Green Region scenario.* Refect areas with existing urban services (such as those identied

in green on the Return on Investment scenario).* Recognize the investments in the regions many communities

and the role they play in oering residents the ability to chooseamong communities with many types o character (such as thoseshown in the Diverse, Distinct Communities scenario).

* Identiy centers o varying sizes throughout the region. Tese areboth mixed use centers and employment centers. Tey include

taxpayers and property owners have made in the regions existinginrastructure and development pattern.

Diverse, Distinct Communities. Tis scenario creates a regionwith dierent sorts o communities and centers, built on thetraditional character o regional communities but designed to meetthe needs o the regions uture markets.

Green Region. Tis scenario refects the concept o greenprinting using technology and stakeholder dialogue to decide what naturalassets are valuable or important in a particular region and thenidentiying those areas so they can be retained to provide greaterbenet as the region grows.

A large team o researchers rom diverse proessional backgroundsevaluated these scenarios. Teir results were presented at a regionalevent in September 2009. Te eedback rom stakeholders did notavor one alternative scenario over all others; instead, North exansidentied some desirable eatures in each o the our alternatives. TeNorth Texas 2050Preerred Future blends these best eatures into ahybrid concept that illustrates the uture these residents and leaderswant to see.



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North Texas 2050 18

Te preerred uture in 2050 is described by a physical developmentpattern and an investment ramework. Policy recommendations arepresented that relate to particular parts o this development patternand investment ramework, as well as to the region as a whole.ogether, the physical development pattern and the investmentramework illustrate a uture that is based on the North Texas 2050Guiding Principles and achieves the Vision Statement presentedabove.

the transit-oriented centers ound in the Connected Centersscenario.

Preferred Future Physical Development Pattern

Policy Areas

One part o the preerred uture plan is a general description o theway development and redevelopment would occur in the regionthrough the year 2050 i the region is to achieve its desired uture.Tis physical development pattern illustrates the orm and unctiono neighborhoods, business areas, communities and natural areas thattogether shape the place North exans will experience in the uture.

Five Policy Areas describe the desirable characteristics o varioustypes o development in the North exas region. Each policy areaincludes development that meets anticipated market demands in ways

that should be sustainable over time. Tese policy areas and centersare explained in this section, with photos and diagrams that illustratethem. Exhibit 4.2 is a preliminary depiction o these policy areas inNorth exas.

Te policy area descriptions also include inormation that allowsthem to be related to the ransect. Te ransect is an urban planningmodel created by the New Urbanism movement as a way to organizeand identiy dierent landscapes ound within the environment,ranging rom completely undeveloped natural areas to very densedowntown environments. Te ransect is divided into six zones. Tese

six zones vary by the level and intensity o their physical and socialcharacter. And orm the basis or the use o urban design approachesrecommended by New Urbanists. For example, the ransect includes aSuburban Zone (3) which primarily includes single-amily homesat the edge o a city.

In the sections that ollow, theNorth Texas 2050policy areas arerelated to the most comparable ransect Zones. Exhibit 4.1 displaysthe ransect diagram.

Exhibit 4.1: Transect



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North Texas 205019

Natural Areas

Te natural areas ound in North exas in 2050 are placeswhere the natural and environmental eatures should bethe ocus. Te purpose o this policy area is to preserve

and protect open spaces, public parks, greenways, lakeshores, signicant views, stands o trees, and foodplains.Te development that occurs near these natural eatures isplanned with these important environmental eatures inmind. Retaining and managing the natural assets that areat the heart o these areas is the goal. Tis policy area wouldocus eorts to provide nancial opportunities to ownersand managers o natural areas that properly refect the

economic benet these areas provide regionally and globally. Also,new growth and development that takes advantage o the amenities

(parks, trails, and lakes) provided by the natural areas will beencouraged in this policy area through best practices and incentives.

Te natural areas shown on the Exhibit 4.2 generally refectfoodplains, major public parks & open spaces, shores along majorlakes and potential connections between these natural assets. Tispolicy area corresponds to the ransect Zone, 1, or Natural Zone.

Rural Areas

Te regions preerred uture envisions these areasin 2050 as places where people can choose a ruralor country liestyle and where businesses based inagriculture can prosper. Tese areas have large lots,ranches, arms all with low population and density.

Te inrastructure (like roads, water supply andsewage treatment) in rural areas is sized to ser ve

small numbers o homes or businesses. Economic activity is largelyrelated to agricultural and arming activities. Most areas are not parto incorporated communities.

o make the most o the investments and assets ound in these areas,

policies ocus on support or continuing the economic lie o existingbusinesses and uses. Tis preerred scenario oers North exans othe uture the opportunity or a rural liestyle. Te creation o newbusinesses (such as alternative energy production) that are based on

the renewable resources that exist in these areas or that provide localgoods and produce to meet the needs o people in the other parts oNorth exas are highly encouraged.

Te rural areas shown on the Exhibit 4.2 generally refect the areasthat are not in urban scale service areas, incorporated cities or naturalareas. Tis policy area corresponds to the ransect Zone, 2 or RuralZone.

Separate Community Areas

Te regions preerred uture envisions these areas in 2050 as a

collection o diverse communities, each with its own center anddistinct character. Tey are generally separated rom the centralurban areas o the region by rural or natural areas. Teir traditionalcore areas (oen historic downtowns) oer unique eatures andsupport community pride. Although residents may need to commuteto jobs in the central urban part o the region, they mainly identiywith the character and the traditions o these separate communityareas.

o make the most o the investments and community assets oundin these areas, action ocuses on economic growth that makes

the traditional core areas sustainable over time and on steps todistinguish one community rom another through communitydesign practices, emphasis on heritage, action to pursue newopportunities that dierentiate individual communities, or retentiono the rural and natural areas around and between them.

Te separate community areas shown on the Exhibit 4.2 generallyrefect the incorporated communities beyond the outer tier. Tispolicy area corresponds to the ransect Zone, 3 or Suburban Zone.



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North Texas 2050 20North Texas 2050

Exhibit 4.2: Preferred Future Diagram

(Illustration of a Preferred Physical Development Pattern for the Year 2050)



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North Texas 205021

Outer Tier Areas

Te regions preerred uture imagines these areas in2050 as a major part o the regions more urban area.

Te outer tier areas rame the inner tier and providedierent options or living and working, though stillin an urban setting. Tere is stil l opportunity ornew greeneld development in the outer tier areas.While there may be places with older development,

most o the neighborhoods and business areas were developed aer1980. Rehabilitation and reinvestment are generally not concerns inthe outer tier today, though they will become more important overtime.

o make the most o the community assets ound in these areas,

the policies or the outer tier areas ocus on steps to ensurethat greeneld development ollows the principles o theNorth Texas 2050document, actions to maintain and supportexisting neighborhoods, and emphasis on the establishmento distinct identities when new neighborhoods andcommunities are created.

Te outer tier areas illustrated on the Exhibit 4.2 generallyrefect the areas within regional waste-water service areas and/orlocations where lakes and rivers create a logical edge to urban-scaledevelopment. Tis policy area corresponds to the ransect Zone, 3

and 4 or Suburban and General Urban.

Inner Tier Areas

Te regions preerred uture envisions these areasin 2050 as the core o the North exas region. Teseare areas that today are largely developed and havelittle land le or new (greeneld) development.Teir neighborhoods and business areas weremostly built beore 1980. Many o the major

regional institutions (museums, universities, etc.) are located here, as

are many places with regional historic signicance. Tey are acingchallenges o inrastructure repair. While some neighborhoods aredesirable and thriving, others are suering rom neglect. Te inner

tier areas include both major employment locations and majorshopping destinations, as well as a wide variety o neighborhoods.

o make the most o the investments and community assets oundin these areas, action ocuses on steps to keep these neighborhoodsprospering, reuse o older buildings, and selection o locations orinll development.

Te inner tier areas shown on the Exhibit 4.2 generally refect areaswhere 15% or less o the land area is still vacant. Tis policy areacorresponds to the ransect Zone, 5 and 6 or Urban Center and

Urban Core.Centers

North exas preerred uture includes many types o centers. Tesecenters are special places that draw residents o North exas to them,or many reasons, including shopping and entertainment. Tesecenters are intended to be places that people can easi ly park their carsonce, then shop, eat, mail a letter all without having to ever movetheir cars. Tey are active and inviting places, due to their thoughtuldesign, which tends to be centered on the pedestrian. Te streetsare designed not just or cars, but or pedestrians and bicycles. Teirappeal is wide so that many people visit them each day or workor shopping, and they are desirable places to call home or manyuture North exans. Te vision o the preerred uture or Northexas includes many centers with opportunities or connectionsbetween centers.

Te mixed use centers shown on the Exhibit 4.2 are those thathave been identied to date. Aer release o this North Texas 2050document, the VN partners encourage municipalities, land owners



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North Texas 2050 22

and interested parties to share inormation on other centers thatmeet these denitions. Tese will be added to later versions o thediagram. Te most signicant centers are shown in the Exhibit 4.2.

Other local-serving centers will be shown online but not in thisexhibit. Additionally, it is recognized that some o the centers shownas Community Centers now may play a larger role in the regionover time. Further discussion may change their designation romCommunity to Metropolitan. Te dierent centers are describedin detail below and are based on inormation collected rom VNresearch, NCCOG records and UA data.

Employment Centers

Te North exas region has a large,diverse business community and is home

to many corporate headquarters. Someregional locations oer higher employmentconcentrations than other areas. TeseEmployment Centers are important to theNorth exas region because they are thelocation o signicant numbers o jobs and

o the major corporate citizens o the region. Employment centersmay include single-use oce parks or campuses, large manuacturingor distribution centers and similar areas with a concentration ojobs. While downtowns and mixed-use, high density areas also havesignicant numbers o jobs, they include a mix o residential andnon-residential uses. For North Texas 2050, these areas are includedamong the Mixed Use Centers described below. By analyzing theseconcentrations o employment, the region may be better able toanticipate the amount o job growth expected, the types o jobs thatwill be in highest demand, and which industry sector is expectedto contribute the largest share o jobs. Te region can also usethis inormation to better provide the services and inrastructureneeded to support these businesses and the people who work in

these locations, including transit or people who work in these areas.Employment centers will be generalized rom previous Vision Northexas research and preliminary center locations will be presented in

the Regional Choices Diagram.

Mixed Use Centers

Te mixed use centers are: Regional, Metropolitan,Community and Neighborhood. Te our centers refectareas with a variety o uses (including both employmentand housing), at least a moderate intensity o developmentand, or some, their roles as distinct or traditional centerso communities. Te mixed use centers dier in termso size, scale, and specic unction. For the most part,Regional and Metropolitan centers are similar in that they

provide a strong employment base or the North exas region, havea mix o land uses, and are highly developed. In turn, Communityand Neighborhood centers are also similar. Tey are mixed use butdo not provide as many job opportunities as the larger Mixed UseCenters. Also these two centers may have a single amily residentialcomponent compared to the Regional and Metropolitan centers,where most residential uses are at higher densities. All o the centersare envisioned to be mixed use and pedestrian riendly, with moreintense development than their surroundings. Characteristicscommon to all our are the presence o transportation connectionsand rapid transit lines. ransit-Oriented Development (OD)is expected around transit stations in all our types o Mixed UseCenters.

Specic criteria have been established to distinguish the our centersand to identiy where they are located in the region. Te table inExhibit 4.3 summarizes key criteria dening Mixed Use Centers. Amore detailed description o each mixed use center ollows.



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North Texas 205023

Regional Centers

Regional Centers are the densest o the our mixed use centers, witha wide variety o uses. A Regional Center has a balance o oce,retail, entertainment, light industrial and multi-amily residentialuses. Regional Centers are envisioned as pedestrian-oriented, urbanareas, in a central location. All modes o transportation serve theRegional Centers. Te North exas region has two Regional Centers,Downtown Dallas and Downtown Fort Worth.

Exhibit 4.3: Mixed Use Center Criteria

Typologies/Dist ricts Mix of Uses

Employment

Intensity

Residential

Density Scale Height Transit System Function

Regional Center

Office, retail, MF

residential, light

industrial and

entertainment;

includes mixed-use.

Emphasis on

employment uses. 100 - 200 jobs/acre

50 - 100

units/acre

600 - 1,000

acres 5 to 50 stories

All modes of transportation; regional

public transit, parking restrictions,

and served by multiple major

highways.

Metropolitan Center

Office, retail, MF

residential and

entertainment;

includes mixed-use. 50 - 80 jobs/acre

15 - 50

units/acre

100 - 500

acres 2 to10 stories

Served by one or more corridor/

regional lines and local services.

Freeways with multiple access

points. In some cases served by

public transit.

Community Center

SF and MF

residential and

retail; includes

mixed-use. 30 - 50 jobs /acre 5 - 10 units/acre 20 - 100 acres 1 to 5 s tories

Served by at least several local

transit and located on an arterial

network. Served by a transit route

providing connections to at least

one Metropolitan Center.

Commuter parking is located in this

center. In some cases served by

public transit.

Neighborhood Center

Mix of uses at a

neighborhood scale. 20 - 30 jobs/acre

10 - 15

units/acre 20 - 100 acres 1 to 5 stor ies

Served by local roads and local

transit to nearest larger center.

Commuter parking in located in this

center. In some cases served by

public transit.

Note: Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) projects may occur within any of these centers.



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North Texas 2050 24

Metropolitan Centers

Metropolitan Centers oer the samevariety o uses, just on a somewhatsmaller scale. Teir development is lessintense than Regional Centers. Teytend to be populated urban areas that areprimarily mixed-use, accommodatingbusiness and multi-amily residentialland uses. Tey meet a wide variety o

business and employment needs and are large enough to serve severalsurrounding cities. Metropolitan Centers also include the largerhistoric downtowns o cities in the North exas area. Metropolitancenters are served by one or more corridor/regional transit lines and

local bus services. wenty Metropolitan Centers have been identiedso ar and examples o these centers are below:

* Addison (includes Addison Circle and Vitruvian Park)* Downtown Denton* Las Colinas* La Villita* Legacy own Center

Community Centers

Community Centers have a mix o uses and are distinguished by theirsmaller size and scale. Community Centers oer development thatprovides retail and residential within the same building or in close,walkable proximity to one another. Tey attract visitors and peoplerom across the region because o their uniqueness, historic natureand design character. Tey provide access to shops, restaurants andcommunity-oriented services. Community Centers are traditionallylocated on a major arterial network and served by a transit routeproviding direct transit to at least one Metropolitan Center. Tirty-

nine Community Centers have been identied so ar and a ewexamples o these centers are as ollows:

* Berry/University* Bishop Arts District* Brick Row* Downtown Arlington* Downtown Garland* Park Lane Place

Neighborhood Centers

Tis is the smallest o the our Mixed Use centertypes. Neighborhood Centers serve the shopping,

service or entertainment needs o one or moreexisting or planned residential neighborhoods.Tey contain a diverse mix o land uses, at aneighborhood scale, including those schools,shopping, personal services and restaurants. Tesecenters may oer quality amenities, like parks, thatattract people rom the adjacent neighborhoods. Good pedestrian,bicycle and bus transportation links are ound in NeighborhoodCenters; some may also include transit stations and adjacent ransit-Oriented Development. Neighborhood Centers are served by localroads and local transit to the nearest larger mixed use center. Over 25

Neighborhood Centers have already been identied to date. Exampleso Neighborhood Centers include:

* Rockwall Commons in Rockwall* Desoto own Center* Downtown Manseld* Bluebonnet Circle



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North Texas 205025

directed - cities or counties, developers, property owners, universitiesor non-prot organizations. Te leaders o Vision North exaspropose these actions because they change the business as usualtrend and shi the region toward its preerred uture.

Preferred Future Accommodates Growth

North exas is one o the astest-growing regions in the nation, andthis growth is expected to continue. By 2030, this sixteen county areais expected to have 9.5 million residents and by 2050, there could be11.7 million people living here. Can this preerred uture handle allthis growth? Exhibit 4.4 shows that this preerred uture illustrated inExhibit 4.2 can accommodate the growth expected through the year2050.

Exhibit 4.4 assumes that uture development in Separate Communitiesand the Outer ier areas would occur at approximately the averageintensity o the Green Region alternative scenario. Natural and ruralareas are expected to be less densely developed because o the character

o those areas. Te Inner ier Areas those that are largely developedbut that would see intensication as revitalization occurs and mixeduse centers are created would have an intensity o development thatrefects these more compact patterns and the concepts in the VNalternative scenarios. For this estimate, the average intensity in theInner ier Areas is assumed to be 30% higher than the average or thedeveloped parts o North exas in 2001.

Under these assumptions, the development pattern illustrated in Exhibit4.2 could accommodate over 12.5 million people. Te anticipated 2050population o the region would require about 93% o this capacity.

Exhibit 4.4: Population Capacity of Preferred Future Diagram


Area Size (Acres)

Density

(persons per

acre)

Population

Capacity AssumptionsExisting Developed Area 1,273,216 4.3 5,429,366 Amount of developed area in the region in 2001, based on NCTCOG land use analysis.

North Texas 2050 Policy Areas

Natural 1,653,000 1.29 2,132,370

Density is 30% of that of N TX urban area in 2001, balancing areas for no development with those for

resort/sustainable urbanism uses.

Rural 4,657,000 0.27 1,234,105 Density assumes 2.65 persons per household, average 1 household per 10 acres.

Separate Communities 366,000 4.70 1,720,200 Density is that from 'Green Region' scenario.

Outer Tier 1,140,000 4.70 5,358,000 Density is that from 'Green Region' scenario.

Inner Tier 373,000 5.60 2,088,800 Density is 30% higher than in existing developed area.

Total Capacity 8,189,000 12,533,475

Anticipated Population 11,660,000 Population estimate for 2050

% Capacity Needed 93.0% Share of capacity occupied by the estimated population in 2050Notes:

1. The density factors used here are the number of persons divided by the number of acres in all urban land uses (not just residential).

2. These densities (for Separate Communities, Outer Tier & Inner Tier) include the more intensely developed centers averaged with the less intense surrounding developments.


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Preferred Future Investment Framework

Te physical pattern o development in North exas is bothshaped by and served by the areas investments and inrastructure.For NorthTexas 2050, this ramework includes eight areas oinvestment. Each o these is introduced below, with an explanationo the role they play in the regions eort to achieve its PreerredFuture. Policy recommendations ollow this introduction. Many

Te areas discussed below are the ocus o importantinvestments by public, private and other decision-makers in North exas. Each o these areas plays animportant role in the regions uture, so action in eacharea is important to achieve this preerred uture.Tese investment areas also interact with one another.Coordination and integration o investments anddecisions across these areas is also essential thesechoices must be aligned to create synergy and support a

sustainable region.Investment AreasRegional Ecosystem

As the population o our region continues its rapid growth, businessas usual means new development that expands into the undevelopedrural or natural areas o our region. Tis expansion poses a threat tonatural assets such as watersheds, open space, wetlands, orests andwater resources that are important to our quality o lie. I this patterno growth continues, the damage to the environment will be wide-ranging, rom drought, foods, poor air quality and the disappearance

o the diverse habitat and wildlie in our region. o prevent theseimpacts, it is important to understand the value and importance othe regions undeveloped rural and natural areas and to consider thesewhen development and investment decisions are made. A RegionalEcosystem Framework is a central recommendation oNorth Texas 2050.It will provide communities with necessary inormation on the benetso the natural assets that may be aected by uture development. Itshould enable property owners, service providers and local governmentsto make more inormed decisions. Te result o this approach todevelopment is an investment ramework that protects the vitality o theenvironment and the

Clearly, this preerred uture does not constrain or limit the regionsability to house the people who are expected to live here in the next40 years. It provides enough capacity to meet needs and provideopportunities or development choice and market competition.

National research shows that the demand or large-lot residentialdevelopment through 2030 can be met by the supply o lots thatexisted in 2007. By providing more opportunities or other types oresidential development, Exhibit 4.2 should better meet the needso the expected market. It is also less likely to contribute to anoversupply o large lots compared to market demand.

Tis development pattern is adequate or growth over the next 40years, but it anticipates a signicant amount o development in areasthat are not currently urban. As a result, it is reasonable to considerthe most ecient ways to stage or phase growth into these newurban areas. I the region is to develop with the sustainable, compactand walkable communities people want, it will be important toensure that the development o these areas occurs at urban densities(retaining most o the land in rural uses in the short term), ratherthan developing large parts o this area at lower, more sprawlingdensities that will require costly extensions o services and willrepeat the business as usual pattern o the past. Property owners,developers, regional leaders and service providers will need to createnew approaches to inrastructure timing and phasing i investors areto receive a reasonable return on their investments as growth occurs

over the next 40 years and i the region is to achieve the stakeholderspreerred uture or North exas.

o the policy recommendations apply throughout the North exasregion; these recommendations are presented rst. Tey are ollowed byrecommendations that relate to a particular part o the regions preerredphysical development plan - the policy areas and centers - described above.

Each recommendation indicates the decision-makers(s) to whom it is



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North Texas 205027

health o the regions residents because the ecosystems are themselvesan essential part o the regions investments and inrastructure.

Community Character and Form

When an individual or a amily chooses a place to

live, they seldom ocus on statistics such as regionalgrowth rates. Instead, they are concerned with thequality o lie and the opportunities available ina particular neighborhood, city or metropolitanarea. From 2000 to 2008, almost 52% o the regionsgrowth was rom people moving into the area, and

over hal o the people moving to the region came rom anothercountry. In the uture, North exas is expected to continue addingresidents and jobs, but the regions success at attracting and retainingpeople depends on maintaining or enhancing its appeal to newcomers

and to long-term residents.

North Texas 2050envisions a uture with many neighborhoods andcommunities, all thriving but each dierent. In this way, the regionas a whole will oer choices that are attractive to all the diversehouseholds that are expected to live here. TeNorth Texas 2050physical development pattern describes the general character andlocation o development in the region. Te policies recommendedhere provide guidance or successul and sustainable action incommunities throughout the region.

EconomyTeNorth Texas 2050Vision is based on a sustainable, thrivingeconomy. Tis economic ocus or the region:

* Is based on the strengths o many distinctive and highly desirablecommunities, each o which may have a dierent economic ocusor emphasis.

* Relies on the talents o innovative people or its continuingsuccess.

* Nurtures the regions natural assets, and using them as a basis

or the uture economy, helps to make this a sustainableeconomy.

* Meets the needs o many dierent market segments, so thereis not a one size ts all pattern o development throughout

the region.* Investments public and private are made where they aremost ecient and eective in their use o resources.

* Te regions economy is globally competitive and attractiveas a place to visit, work and live.

* Public-private partnerships are used at the regional andlocal level, and resources like model ordinances andincentives acilitate economic vitality throughout the region.

Policy recommendations support increased collaboration atthe regional level, as well as support or action that retainsthe distinctive economic role o individual communities and

employment centers within the region.

Housing

With millions o additional residents expected in Northexas in the coming decades, there is littledoubt that housing will be important. Moreimportant than providing basic shelter,though, the housing choices we make as aregion today will impact almost every aspecto our uture. Having a mix o housing typesand styles rom single amily homes on

large lots to smaller units close to transit tohousing or seniors who want to age in place will better match the regions expected market demands.Every city should strive or a variety o housing types and sizes.Successully aligning these housing choices with job locationswill decrease commutes, increase productivity and reduce airpollution. Inll o todays employment-rich areas with housingchoices will create mixed use areas that also achieve theseobjectives. Support or strong, diverse neighborhoods will



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restore many communities to economic vibrancy while retaining theindividual character that makes them special.

North Texas 2050recognizes that housing is an essential parto a community and a region. One o the twelve GuidingPrinciples (ound on page #) addresses Housing Choice and otherguiding principles support the undamental role o housing andneighborhoods in the regions long term success. Tese policyrecommendations support investment in housing so housing optionsare available to meet the needs o uture North exans. Tey resultrom the work o the North exas Housing Coalition (NHC), whichhas led Vision North exas eorts related to housing.

Mobility

Every day, North exans travel around the region in the course otheir daily lives. Tey commute rom home to work or school. Tey

make trips to retail stores, business oces,libraries, public buildings or hospitals.Tey may visit a church, synagogue ormosque. Tey take part in events at arenasand stadiums or go to parks and openspaces to enjoy sports, recreation andtness activities.

Since travel is so important to North

exans daily lives, the ability to move rom place to place mobility is an essential part o a livable, sustainable and successul region.Many eorts to provide mobility over the past 50 years have ocusedon building more and larger roads or automobile travel and thismode o travel will continue to be an important part o the regionsmobility in the uture. But the region, and the nation as a whole,should not continue putting all its mobility eggs in this singlebasket. Instead, the regions preerred uture is based on a GuidingPrinciple that stresses a variety o ecient mobility options. Tese

options are intended to meet North exans travel needs, gainthe greatest benet rom investments in mobility and make theregion more sustainable. Tey build on and urther recent

transportation investment priorities.

Climate Resilience

International research has led some (but not all) scientists to concludethat increasing levels o carbon (and other greenhouse gases) in theatmosphere contribute to global climate change. Publications by theUrban Land Institute and others show that the transportation andbuilding sectors are key contributors to greenhouse gas emissionand must be a major ocus o strategies to reduce a regions carbonootprint and to make communities more resilient in their responsesto changes in the climate. Local action on climate change is already

underway in North exas cities. As o early 2008, over 60% o thepeople in the North exas region lived in cities whose mayors hadsigned the U.S. Conerence o Mayors Climate Protection Agreement,committing them to strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targetsin their own communities; urge state and ederal governments tomeet or beat these targets; and urge Congress to pass bipartisangreenhouse gas emission legislation.

In December 2009, the Administrator o the U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA) ound that greenhouse gas concentrationsthreaten the public health and welare o current and uture

generations (endangerment) and that emissions o these gases romnew motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to thegreenhouse gas pollution (cause or contribute). Tese ndings werebased on technical analysis and public comment, and will be the basisor regulations under the Clean Air Act.

TeNorth Texas 2050preerred uture should help reduce the carbonootprint that would have resulted rom business as

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North Texas 2050