North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto North American Barometer ( Short-Term Outlook: Q1 2016-Q2 2016)

North American Barometer

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

WardsAuto North American Barometer

(Short-Term Outlook: Q1 2016-Q2 2016)



WardsAuto 6-Month North American Outlook (Q1/Q2 2016 Industry Forecasts)

Sales-N.America (Yr/Yr % Change)



North American Industry Sales Outlook

• Sales finish entire 2015 at an estimated 20.7 million

• Volume continues upward trend through first-half 2016.

• First-half 2016 sales increase 5% from like-2015

• Import share remains a long-time high



North American Production OutlookProduction

Production Capacity Utilization

• Year-over-year gains slow in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 in part due to slowdowns for redesigns at some plants

• Flat Y/Y demand for cars also putting a damper on production gains

• Mostly due to trucks, capacity utilization continues to get tighter.



U.S. Sales Outlook• Initial model puts December

sales at a 17.6 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, or about 1.67 million units – could go higher

• After tracking at 17.8 million SAAR in second-half 2015, expect first-half 2016to run at 17.6 million, with volume up 5% from January-June 2015

Units in millions



• Economic growth in general: more jobs, including more youth entering workforce

• Pent-up demand from the recession• Low interest rates allowing longer finance

contracts, increased leasing• Fleet penetration up• Off-lease volumeIncreased incentives (though not out of hand right

now)Low fuel prices

What’s Driving U.S. Demand



Incentives Had a Bigger Role in the Recent BoomMarket Penetration of New/Redesigned Vehicles vs. Incentive Activity

Incentive data is average incentives as a percent of average transaction prices. Source. TrueCar



Brand Series ActionProduction

Source Manufacturer SegmentEstimated Sales Start

Honda Civic Redesign Canada/U.S. Honda Small Upper Nov 2015Mercedes GLC New Germany Daimler CUV Luxury Small Nov 2015Nissan Titan Redesign U.S. Nissan Pickup Large Dec 2015Chevrolet Malibu Redesign U.S. GM Middle Lower Jan 2016Toyota Prius Redesign Japan Toyota Middle Upper Feb 2016Buick Cascada New Poland GM Luxury Specialty Mar 2016Mercedes GLS New U.S. Daimler CUV Luxury Large Mar 2016Audi A4 Redesign Germany Volkswagen Luxury Lower Apr 2016Cadillac XT5 New U.S. GM CUV Luxury Middle Apr 2016Chevrolet Cruze Redesign U.S. GM Small Upper Apr 2016Infiniti Q30 New U.K. Nissan Middle Upper Apr 2016Jaguar XE New U.K. Tata Luxury Lower Apr 2016Kia Cadenza Redesign South Korea Kia Luxury Lower Apr 2016Mazda Mazda CX-9 Redesign Japan Mazda CUV Large Apr 2016Acura NSX New U.S. Honda Luxury Sport May 2016Lincoln Continental New U.S. Ford Luxury Middle Jun 2016Fiat 124 Spider New Japan Mazda Small Specialty Jun 2016

U.S. Sales Starts for New and Redesigned VehiclesSales penetration of fresh vehicles should increase in first-half 2016



Declining Fuels Prices Pumping Demand Further

Falling prices at the pump added an estimated 300,000 units to the annual rate since July (17.9 million)

Already rising anyway, lower fuel prices are pushing up truck penetration a little faster



U.S. Inventory• Total inventory is well balanced with

demand, and can meet another “18 million” month

• Small Car inventory appears to be lagging but a lot of the recent sales gains in the segment appear to be fleet and/or incentive induced

• CUVs continue to suck the life out of midsize cars

• Large Cars have fallen to less than 2% of the market

• A few vehicles are responsible for y/y increase in luxury cars, but share down and luxury CUVs and SUVs pulling away share

• CUVs inventory in line; especially the hottest part of that segment group – import luxury versions

• Pickup inventory levels fine – year-ago volumes were too high

• Small (minivans and cargo) vans and Large Vans forging ahead

Nov. 30 Inventory and YTD Sales vs. Year-Ago



Canada Sales Outlook

Units in thousands

• 2015 will be the third straight record year for Canada – sales forecast to end at 1.9 million units

• Anticipating a slowdown in growth by Q2 due to some headwinds – low oil prices among them - but still historically strong volumes



Mexico Sales Outlook

Units in thousands

• Estimated sales in 2015 of 1.34 million units soared 18.5% from last year’s record volume

• Economic growth in 2016 is expected to largely mimic this year, and volume will increase again

• Low oil prices, corruption, among other red flags, could dampen the outlook



North America SalesGeneral Motors Outlook

Market Share

Production

Capacity Utilization



North America SalesFord Outlook

Market Share



North America SalesToyota Outlook

Market Share

Production



North America SalesFiat-Chrysler Outlook

Market Share Capacity Utilization



North America SalesHonda Outlook

Market Share



North America SalesNissan Outlook

Market Share



North America SalesRest of Industry Outlook

Market Share



Thank You,

Haig StoddardSenior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



• Powerful database and reporting tools to customize your output

• Scenario-building tool to consider different assumptions and their effects

FORECASTING TOOLS

Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn [email protected] - 248-799-2642



• Global production covering 6 regions

• Eight-year planning window, updated monthly

• Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A.

VEHICLE FORECAST




• Realistic picture of powertrain volumes

• Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric

• Eight-year forecast, updated monthly

POWERTRAIN FORECAST




• All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly

• By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume

PRODUCT CYCLES




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Documents

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto North American Barometer ( Short-Term Outlook: Q1 2016-Q2 2016)