Participatory backcasting

“Dutch-KTH approach”

Olga Kordas,

Kateryna Pereverza,

Oleksii PasichnyiKTH

Research & Society

researchers society

Technology

push

Technology

pull

Tools for complexity studies

• Long term

• Great uncertainties

• Great numberof stakeholders

• Conflicting interests

• Multi dimensional

• Multi sectoral

We need tools to find options to deal with

challenges on our way to sustainability

How to deal with the future?

TIME

EFFICIENCY

2015 2050

System

innovation

Product & process

improvement

1

5

20

Product optimization

Adopted from Leo Jansen (2000)

"Telephone Tower“

in Stockholm

This was one of the main

telephone junctions in

Stockholm between 1887-

1913. About 5000 telephone

lines where connected here.

After that the tower

remained as landmark until

1953 when it was torn down

as a result of a fire.

What’s this?

Forecasting Explorative Backcasting

Predict most

likely future

Explore

alternative futuresAssess feasibility

of desirable future

What

will happen?

What

can happen?

How can a specific

target be reached?

BAU

Forecasting

Backcasting

Sustainable development

& future studies

• SD has a strong future orientation - we need to define

and clarify an attractive sustainable future

• Clear future visions have a strong guiding power

– Man on the Moon

– Millennium Development Goals (MDG)

– City of Curitiba

– etc.

John F. Kennedy "Landing a man on the Moon"

Address to Congress - May 25, 1961

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUXuV7XbZvU

Visions

from Sci-Fi

Neuromancer (1984),

by William Gibson

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968), by Arthur C. Clarke

Fahrenheit 451 (1953),

by Ray Bradbury

Foundation (1951),

by Isaac Asimov

Star Trek's Replicator

The Power of Science Fiction: exploring sci-fi’s

relationship to real-world innovation

Dennis Cheatham // Design Research Theory // fall 2011

Clothing Of The Future

Clothing in The Year 2000

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9eAiy0IGBI

Backcasting

Backcasting: step by step

TIME

EFFICIENCY

2015 2050

VISIONof the

future

Strategic

problem

orientation

1

2

3

Action plan4

5

Defining system boundaries

• What is appropriate time frame(2030, 2050)? Why?

• How many scenarios/visions(1 or several)? Why?

• What scale (local, regional, national)? Why?

• What are main parts of the system.What are system boundaries?

Stakeholders =

companies

expertsknowledge

institutes

societal

organizations

Individuals and organisations,

that can influence issue (topic,

decision) or that can be influenced

by issue (topic, decision)

governments

Not only But also

Why stakeholder participation

is important

• enhanced legitimacy

• context /group specific knowledge

• increased reflexivity /

quality of outcomes

• support for outcomes

(co-ownership)

• learning (mental frameworks)

• accountability

(increased co-responsibility)

Stakeholder grid

inte

rest

power

high

highlow

SubjectsPlayers

(“Movers and shakers”)

Actors / Context Setters

(“Unguided missiles”)

Bystanders / Crowd

(“Dead Wood”)

Source: Eden and Ackermann (1998: 122)

Exercise I

Stakeholder analysis for mobility in Barcelona

1. Identify stakeholders (people, groups, organizations, etc.)

2. Assess power (impact) and interestof stakeholders

3. Identify main conflictand union points fordifferent stakeholders

Stakeholder gridin

tere

st

power

high

highlow

Commuters

Public transport companies

Drivers

Neighbors

Business owners

Government

Road workers

Environmental NGOs

Researchers

Tourists

City development NGOs

Associations of neighbors

Bikers

Advertisement companies

Minority groups

Producers

of transport

Stakeholder grid (example)

inte

rest

power

high

highlow

population municipalitytransportation

companies

tourists

producers

of transport

equipment

employees

service

providers

researchers energy

companies

investors

employers

tourism

companies

police

NGOs

Intensity of stakeholders involvement

Source: P. Brandt et al. (2013)

InformTo provide the public with balanced and objective information to assist

them in understanding the problem, alternatives, opportunities and/or

solutions.

ConsultTo obtain public feedback for decision-makers on analysis, alternatives

and/or decisions.

InvolveTo work directly with the public throughout the process to ensure that

public concerns and aspirations are consistently understood and

considered in decision making processes.

CollaborateTo partner with the public in each aspect of the decision including the

development of alternatives and the identification of the preferred

solution.

Empower To place final decision-making in the hands of the public.

Identifying needs & setting goals

Exercise IIIdentify needs & propose alternative solutions

Problem

Temperature at Bjorn’s

house is too low in cold

season

Proposed solution

He wants to install extra

heater unit

Bjorn needs

• Hot tea

• A cat

• Thermal comfort

• Thermal clothes

• Money

• Take-off clothes

• Service-man

• Insulation

Visioning

Defining and clarifying an attractive sustainable future

• Clear future visions have a strong guiding power

• It forces to specify norms and values(or use some generally accepted)

• Functional criteria should be defined

– Providing full coverage

– ‘Tickable’ (and if possible quantifiable)

The Four System Conditions

Exercise III

Elaborate criteria for the future vision

1. What are good/ relevant criteria for your system in desirable future?

2. Assess elaborated criteriain points [0-5].

3. Select the most valuablecriteria.

4. Make sure theyare ‘tickable’ andquantify them(if possible)

Criteria set (example)

1. Low-environmental impact – kg of (CO2+NOX) per 100 km

2. Accessibility– average time to travel 100 km

3. Safety– total cost of accidents

reimbursement

4. Affordability– average price to travel

5. Energy efficiency – average distance

travelled for 1 kWt-hour

Inventory of drivers

A. Climate change

B. Prices for resources

Y. Demography dynamics

Z. Government policy

Driver analysis

u n ce r t a i n t y

Impact

High

Low

High

Low

To take into

account anywayTo make

sensitivity analysis

Neglect Neglect

trends key uncertainties

Exercise IV

Driver analysis

1. Identify which drivers will mark the future?

Demographics, Political, Economic, Technological, Social /

Cultural etc

2. Assess the level of impact

and uncertainty for each of

the driving force

3. Select key uncertainties

(driver with high impact and

high uncertainty)

Drivers

u n c e r t a i n t y

Impact

High

Low

High

Low

trends key uncertainties

availability of

fossil fuels

technology

development

economic growth

demographic

changes

territory

changes political support

EU

legislations

Generating solutionsUsing different creativity

techniques create several

alternative solutions

Examples of solutions

1. "Comfortable travelling"car rent/pooling, demand-based routing, relocating

2. "Collective

transportation"

3. "Massive collective

transportation"

What Will Clothes Look Like in the Future?

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taCNp-LeTMs

Solution testing

on robustness

Solution testing

against criteria

Developing pathways

1. What changes are necessary

(C, S, T)?

2. Who (which stakeholders)

are needed?

3. What is appropriate timeframe

for identified changes?

Adjusting future vision allowed!C – culture

S – structure

T – technology

When we can use Backcasting?

• Useful when current trends are not in line with some targets of high importance

• Typically combines quantitative illustrations with qualitative analysis

• Can be eye-opener when it comes to see the need and opportunity for change

• Challenges the trust in forecasts

• Challenges mental barriers forwhat is possible to change

• Challenges the idea of consistencyin scenarios

• Highlights goal-conflicts andconflicts of interests

Höjer, Svenfelt and Wangel, 2012 In: Alm et al, Att utforska framtiden

Backcasting

Backcasting:

from vision to action

TIME

EFFICIENCY

2015 2050

VISIONof the

future

CHARACTERISTICS

Explicitly normative

Participatory

System oriented

Desired futures & changes

(action-oriented)

Combines process, design, analysis

Transdisciplinary

Helpful if institutions / rule system lack

References

• Carlsson-Kanyama, A., Dreborg, K.H., Moll, H.C. & Padovan, D. (2007) Participatory backcasting: a tool for involving

stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures, 2008 40: p. 34-36

• Dreborg K.H., 1996. Essence of backcasting. Futures 28 (9), 813–828

• Grin, J. Rotmans, J and Schot, J.W. (2010) Transitions To Sustainable Development – Part 1. New Directions in the Study

of Long Term Transformative Change., New York: Routledge Taylor and Francis Group.

• Höjer M and L-G Mattsson, (2000) Determinism and backcasting in future studies, Futures 32: 613-634.

• Höjer M, A. Gullberg, R. Pettersson(2011a), Backcasting images of the future city-Time and space for sustainable

development in Stockholm." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(5): 819-834.

• Holmberg, J. and K. H. Robèrt (2000). "Backcasting: a framework for for strategic planning." International Journal of

Sustainable Development and World Ecology 7(4): 291-308.

• Jansen L (2003) The challenge of sustainable development, Journal of Cleaner Production 11: 231-245.

• Quist J, Vergragt P (2006) Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a

methodological framework, Futures 38(9): 1027-1045.

• Quist J. (2007) Backasting for a sustainable future: impact after 10 years, PhD thesis, TU Delft, Eburon Academic

Publishers

• Robinson J (1990) Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict, Futures 22: 820-843.

• Robinson J (2003) Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning, Futures 35: 839-856.

• Vergragt, P.J. , Quist J., (2011) Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue. Technological Forecasting

and Social Change. 78(5): p. 747–755.

Participatory Backcasting Framework

Problem definition,

system boundaries

Stakeholder analysis

Current situationanalysis,

needs analysis

Elaboration of vision

Driver analysisSolutions

development & testing

Backcasting analysis

Preparing presentation

III. Backcasting

I. Problem

orientation

II. Scenario

development

Problem definition

• Define the goal of the study

• Define system boundaries and time frame

Stakeholder analysis

• Identify stakeholders

• Map stakeholders on stakeholder grid

Current situation analysis

• Provide holistic overview of the system

• Identify key problems for sustainability

• Needs analysis

Elaboration of vision

• Elaborate set of criteria to describe vision

• Specify developed criteria (propose measurable indicators to make them ’tickable’)

Driver analysis

• Identify main drivers

• Map drivers on impact/uncertainty plane

• Select key uncertainties and identify trends

Solutions development

• Generate/create solutions

• Evaluate created solutions across developed criteria

• Test solutions against key uncertainties

• Decide on which solution to select (mix is possible)

Backcasting analysis

• Identify what changes (C, S, T) are needed

• Identify how these changes can be achieved

• Identify who (which stakeholders) are needed

• Map proposed changes along the timeline

• Identify drivers and barriers for developed pathway

1 hour

1 hour

1 hour

2 hours

1 hour

3 hours

5 hours

Preparing presentation 2,5 hours

TOTAL 16,5 hours

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Monday

Tuesday

+

Wednesday

Thank you for your attention.

Questions?