Nordic FB Stakeholder Forum · Where is the project right now A prototype tool for FB capacity calculation has been developed The work on obtaining an industrialized FB tool is starting

Nordic FB Stakeholder Forum

Dec 2015

Stockholm Arlanda airport

Agenda10:00 - 10:10 Welcome (Lennart Rosengren, Svenska Kraftnät)

10:10 - 11:10 The Nordic Flow-Based project

Status and plans (Trond Jensen, Statnett)

Results from the preliminary market simulations (Nils Ræder, Statnett)

11:10 - 11:30 The Regulatory Process

The CACM requirements on selection of Capacity Calculation Methodology (Toril Naustvoll Gange, NVE)

11:30 - 12:00 Feedback on issues discussed in the Dec 2014 FB Forum (Lasse Konttinen - Fingrid)

12:00 – 12:30 Experiences from the FB system in CWE

The Regulatory side (Alain Marien, CREG)

12:30 - 13:30 Lunch

13:30 - 15:00 Experiences from the FB system in CWE (continued)

The TSO side (Christophe Mestdag, ELIA)

The market participants side (Hélén Robaye, GDF suez)

The PXs side (Andrew Claxton and Joel Hoeksema, APX/EPEX)

15:00 - 15:30 Coffee break

15:30 - 16:30 Feedback from the Nordic market participants

Stakeholder Group feedback and open floor

Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up

A short reminder – What's it all about

Obtain more efficient utilization of the power system……. More correct power prices and flows

…. by providing a grid model to the market algorithm The market, not the operators, will prioritize limited exchange capacity

between (bidding zone) borders and critical grid components

Our "buzz-words": PTDFs and RAMs are the FB parameters providing transmission

capacity to the market algorithm and replacing the NTC value

Base case is the forecasted state of the power system at each hour. This is used for calculating the FB parameters• State of the grid including load and generation (on a nodal base)

GSKs are the weights used for aggregating nodes to bidding zones

CNEs are Critical Grid Components (to be monitored by the market algorithm)

FRMs are uncertainty margins on the CNEs

Where is the project right now

A prototype tool for FB capacity calculation has been developed

The work on obtaining an industrialized FB tool is starting

FB parameters have been calculated for Jan-Apr 2015 120 days in total

17 days of missing grid models

FB Market solutions have been calculated by the "PCR Simulation Facility" for those months Market simulations comprise The Nordics, CWE, UK, The Baltics, Poland (New

NTC-solutions where also calculated to form a relevant comparison)

FB market results have been obtained for 97 days

Not sufficient quality of current FB parameters Quality of grid models/non-converging grid models

Quality of CNE definition

FRM implementation

Forecasting

Choice of GSK strategy

Continuous simulations was started in week 43 Aim is to improve the quality of the calculation process, tools and FB parameters

Dec.2013

Oct.2014

Aug2015

Nov2015

May2016

March2017

FB Project Roadmap

PFS

• Welfare estimates

• Road map FB

FS-I

• FB Methodology

• Prel. Protot. tool

• Economic indicators

FS-II

• Final protot. tool

• Market assessment

• SH communication

• Req. for Ind. tool

2015 2016201420132012 2017 2018

Develop conceptMay 2013

DP1

Prepare for Implementation

Oct 2015

DP2

ProjectPhases

Timeline - CACM

Sept2017

Prepare for implementation

• Internal and external parallel runs

• Improving the prototype FB tool

• Prepare investment in an industrialized FB tool

• Stakeholder acceptance

InvestmentSign contractsMarch 2017

DP3

Initiation stageSept 2012

DP0

Implementation

• Internal and external parallel runs

• Develop an industrialized FB tool• NRA Approvals and TSO

agreements• Trained operational personnel• Final stakeholder acceptance

Decision process

FB parallel runs/Market simulations

TSOs to prop. CCM

Stable Proto-type

Oct 2015

Sept 2016

Jan 2018

March 2018

March 2017

Sept 2017

Prototype in operation in the //run

Industrial tool in operationIn the //run

Weekly internal parallel runs Weekly external

parallel runs

Check if quality requirementsare met

Check if quality requirementsare met

DailyExternal parallel runs

Publish daily results

Access to CGM-ED-2

NRAs approveCCM

Start publish results

Project organisation

Work Group 1

FB Methodology

Convener: Trond Jensen (SN)Support: Pieter Schavemaker (E-Bridge)

Work Group 3

Welfare Economics

Convener: Ulrik Møller (EdK)Support: Zongyu Liu (E-Bridge)

MSG(Steering committee)

Kristin Munthe (SN)Søren Dupont Kristensen (EdK)Juha Kekkonen (FG)Ulla Sandborgh (Svk)

Work Group 2

IT-Development

Convener: Mattias Ehn (Svk)Support: Oliver Obert (E-Bridge )

FBG / PMO

Convener: Pieter Schavemaker (E-Bridge)Project manager: Trond Jensen (SN)Ulrik Møller (EdK)Lasse Konttinen (FG)Mattias Ehn (Svk)Lennart Rosengren (Svk)

RGN

Øivind Rue (SN)Carsten Jensen (EdK)Reima Päivinen (FG)Erik Ek (Svk)

Operational Reference Group

Convener: Jan Hystad (SN)Support: Zongyu Liu (E-Bridge)

Detailed plan and timeline for the

industrialized tool

Oct 2015

Sept 2016

March2017

Jan2016

RFI

DP2

Specification

RFQ

DP2.1

Procurement

DP3

System construction

Trial Phase// Run










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up

Contents

o Revisiting the benefits of a flow based energy market

o Two cases from the market simulations

o Impact on price convergence

Transit flows and uncertainty

Flow Based

Line Max flow A B C

A -> B 1000 MW 33 % - 33 % 0

B -> C 1000 MW 33 % 67 % 0

A -> C 1000 MW 67 % 33 % 0

A

C

B

67 %

33 %

To day (NTC)

Line Max flow

A -> B 750 MW

B -> C 750 MW

A -> C 750 MW

Max flow on lines are 1000 MW

Transit flows and uncertainty

A

C

B

1500 MW

1500 MW

750 750

750

A

C

B

2000 MW

2000 MW

1000 1000

1000

500

1000500

A

C

B

750 MW

1500 MW

750 750

750MW

1000 1000

10001000

2000

750 750

667

667 1333

Internal grid constraints

NTC Method

Loop flow in Southern Norway5 January 2015

The market exchange between NO1 to NO2 creates significant transit flows through NO5o This adds additional flow on lines NO1-NO5 and NO5-NO2 compared to the planned

market exchange

The border NO5-NO2 has a thermal capacity of 900 MWo The capacity must cover both market exchange between NO5-NO2 and transit flow

o The market receives an NTC limited of 200 MW to avoid overloads on the line, with the line NO1-NO2 being restricted as well

A flow based market do not face the same uncertainty, and more of the capacity can be made available to the market

NO1NO5

NO2

Flow

0

Hour

Hour

Flow Prices Welfare

FB: No direct limit on the DK2-SE4 border, and larger trade is possible

NTC: The DK2-SE4 border was limited some hours of 8 February to avoid overloads on the "West Coast Cut" in Sweden

Better management of internal CNEs

DK2 – SE4

∆Hourly welfare

FB: The West Coast-cut has a limit, but is not actually overloading, or limiting the market on 8 February

44.6

44.6

37.1

44.9

27.2

30.4

42.1

29.9

30.2

28.928.8

28.8

More prices more capacityResult of market simulations for 12 February 2015 15:00

44.9

44.9

44.9

44.9

29.6

29.6

44.9

29.6

29.6

28.528.5

28.5

+250 MW

+140 MW

+300 MW

+200 MW

NTC marketoutcome

Flow based marketoutcome

Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Jan-Apr 2015)(ordered from high to low values)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000

5

10

15

20

25

hours

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n o

f N

ord

ic p

rice

s (

Eu

ro)

FB

NTC


0 10 20 30 40 50 608

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

hours

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n o

f N

ord

ic p

rice

s (

Eu

ro)

FB

NTC


1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 24000

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

hours

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n o

f N

ord

ic p

rice

s (

Eu

ro)

FB

NTC

Price volatility

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

DK1 DK2 FI NO1 NO2 NO3 NO4 NO5 SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

€/M

Wh

FB impact on standard deviation of pricesJanuary to April 2015










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up

Overview current Nordic FB Stakeholder involvement

Stakeholder Forum

Annual, organized together with NordREG

Objective: Forum, open for all stakeholders, where information on the Nordic FB project is shared

Stakeholder Group meetings

3-monthly

Objective: meeting organized with a nominated and small representation of the stakeholders, in order to establish a more intense interaction and information exchange

Newsletter

Frequency of publication is not fixed yet (event-driven at the moment)

Objective: provide a means to update all stakeholders in an easy way

Nordic FB Forum Dec 2014

During the Nordic FB Forum in Dec 2014, we organized breakout sessions, where the project members in multiple small round-table sessions with the stakeholders dived into FB discussions

During the break-out sessions, concerns were touched upon and questions were raised

The project has taken those questions on board and will answer them as soon as possible; a part of the answers is currently available

Nordic FB Newsletter

As not all stakeholders attend the Forum, the project

proposes to address the questions raised, and

corresponding answers, in the newsletter

Indeed, this guarantees that the information is shared

with all stakeholders

The Nordic FB newsletter will also be used to share

The slides of the Stakeholder Fora

The slides of the Stakeholder Group meetings

The draft minutes of the Stakeholder Group meetings










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up










12:30 - 13:30 Lunch








Wrap up

Documents

Nordic FB Stakeholder Forum · Where is the project right now A prototype tool for FB capacity calculation has been developed The work on obtaining an industrialized FB tool is starting