NOAAs Strategic Planning Stakeholder Engagement: National
Federation of Regional Associations (NFRA) Michelle Schmidt NOAA
Western Regional Collaboration Team Co-Lead
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U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N
I S T R A T I O N NOAAs Next Generation Strategic Plan National
Federation of Regional Associations for Coastal and Ocean Observing
Seattle, WA Paul Doremus NOAA Director of Strategic Planning
www.ppi.noaa.gov August 27, 2009
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N The NOAA Strategic Plan Sets the Course for
the Agency The Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP) will: Inform
and respond to priorities of the new administration, based on
long-term trends, challenges, and opportunities facing NOAA and the
nation Engage and respond to stakeholders and staff Frame NOAAs
policy, programmatic, and investment decisions Establish the basis
for monitoring and evaluating NOAAs performance The Strategic Plan
will be updated every four years
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4 What are the trends that will shape our future? How will NOAA
develop strategy for the long- and short-term? How will regional
input aid the development of NOAA strategy?
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 5 Trends in Polar Ice
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Northwest U.S. Cities at Risk to Sea Level
Rise 6 Source: USGCRP, Climate Change Impacts in the United States
(2009), http://www.globalchange.gov
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 7 Potential Emissions Reductions Wedge by
Wedge Source: NRDC
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 8 Dow Jones Industrial Average
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N The Total Deficit or Surplus as a Share of
GDP, 1970 to 2019 9
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Issues Most Important to the Public NBC-WSJ,
December 2007CNN, November 2008 Iraq34Economy / Jobs64
Healthcare15Iraq and Afghanistan11 Immigration12Federal Deficit7
Terrorism12Energy6 Economy / Jobs8Healthcare5 Energy
costs6Something else3 Environment6 Note: Environment disappeared
from the CNN list in September. Budget deficit4 Other / Unsure3
Education-- 10
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Who will be NOAAs partners and customers? 11
One Laptop per Child
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Over the Long-Term, We See Multiple Trends
that are High Impact and Highly Uncertain Global Climate and
Ecology Sea Level Rise Ocean Acidification Species Migration and
Extinction Glacier and Ice Changes Atmospheric Methane High-Impact
Events Competition for Natural Resources Energy Supply and Demand
Fresh Water Availability Water Quality Food Supply and Security
Marine and Coastal Resources Scientific and Technological
Innovation Environmental Measurement and Monitoring Modeling and
High Performance Computing Data Management and Information Sharing
Collaborative, Integrative R&D Risk Management, Decision
Support Systems Political and Economic Power Public Concern,
Engagement in Environmental Issues Growth of Green Industry Federal
Budget and National Debt International Agreements New Forms of
Governance Statutory Mandates, Legislative Authorities Social
Identities and Demographics The Rise of China and India Urban and
Coastal Demographics Arctic Industrial Activity S&T Education
and Workforce
Slide 13
13 What are the trends that will shape our future? How will
NOAA develop strategy for the long- and short-term? How will
regional input aid the development of NOAA strategy?
Slide 14
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Using Scenarios to Address Strategic
Questions 14
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15 What are the trends that will shape our future? How will
NOAA develop strategy for the long- and short-term? How will
stakeholder input aid the development of NOAA strategy?
Slide 16
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Stakeholder Input is Central to NGSP
Development 16 Nov08 Jan09Jan09 Sep09Aug09 Nov09Jul09 Feb10Nov09
Feb10
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 17 Stakeholder Input will be Collected and
Assessed on a Regional Basis
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 3 Fundamental Questions for Stakeholders and
Staff 18 1.What trends will shape our long-term future? What
long-term trends (scientific, technological, socio- economic, etc.)
will be relevant to you, your community, or your organization over
the next 25 years? 2.What challenges or opportunities will we face?
In light of the trends that you have identified, what challenges or
opportunities will you, your community, or your organization face
over the next 25 years? 3.What should NOAA strive to accomplish?
Given the long-term trends, challenges, and opportunities that you
identified, what should the agency seek to accomplish in the next
25 years?
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N How to Be Involved www.noaa.gov/ngsp Answer 3
long-term strategy questions: What trends will shape our long-term
future? What challenges or opportunities will we face? What should
NOAA strive to accomplish? NOAAs Scenarios for 2035 is designed to
stimulate thinking on the above questions. Comments are welcome on
the key trends and dynamics in the Scenarios document itself.
Comment on draft NGSP during formal review phase.
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TODAYS AGENDA 1:00-1:35Welcome and Overview 1:35-2:15Breakout
Groups: Question 1: What will trends will shape our long-term
future? Question 2: What challenges or opportunities will we face?
Question 3: What should NOAA strive to accomplish? 2:15-2:30Wrap Up
& Next Steps
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NEXT STEPS Estimated Timeline: Regional input submitted to NOAA
HQ by Aug. 2009 Draft report (for public review) by Dec. 2009 Final
report by May 2010 Additional comments can be submitted to:
http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/ngsp.html
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REFERENCE SLIDES
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Key External Forces in Scenarios for 2035
Nature and Mix of Economic ActivityEnvironment and Society
InteractionGovernance and Decision-making Global demographicsWater
supply variability and changeInternational laws and agreements
Coastal population growthGHG emissions (carbon and methane)US ocean
policy Water supplyClimate changeCap and trade legislation Maritime
tradeRapid changes in glaciers and ice sheetsCarbon taxes
Industrial activities in the ArcticOcean circulation; AMOCClimate
science research Level and composition of US economic growthArctic
sea iceGovernment budgets and debt Level and composition of global
economic growthOcean acidificationCollaborative modes of governance
U.S. urbanizationCatastrophic eventsPrivatization Megacity
developmentAquatic resourcesStructure of Federal environmental
agencies Food supply and demandMarine species Demand for emergency
management services Computer technologyCoastal and ocean water
qualityInternational information sharing Private sector water and
climate information services Coastal zones Global environmental
information integration Energy pricesCoastal erosion,
inundationU.S. energy policy; energy independence Energy demand
growthPublic opinion Electrification of transportObserving system
gaps (esp satellites) Alternative energy suppliesGIS tools and data
Evolution of models 23
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Types of Uncertainty that Affect NOAA and
Three Possible Futures 24 Nature and mix of economy Governance and
Decision-Making Environment and Society Interaction Smart Growth vs
Business As Usual Smart Growth vs Business As Usual Smart Growth vs
Business As Usual Collaboration vs Fragmentation Collaboration vs
Fragmentation Collaboration vs Fragmentation Harmonious vs
Dysfunctional Harmonious vs Dysfunctional Harmonious vs
Dysfunctional Too Little, Too Late? Green Chaos Carbon Junkies
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 25 2009-20202021-2035 Nature and Mix of
Economy: SMART GROWTH Strong economic growth is fueled by
alternative energy investments and global trade. New energy
technology facilitates rapid economic development in developing
countries. Sustainability as a way of life leads to comprehensive
new fisheries management practices, sensible crop rotation, and
more efficient water use. Significant benefits of smart growth are
achieved worldwide in less than 20 years, but its still unknown
whether they are forestalling an abrupt climate change. Some
scientists are beginning to believe the policies were too late and
were always too little to halt abrupt climate change. Governance
and Decision-Making: COLLABORATION A new collaborative ethic takes
hold at all levels of government (international, federal, state,
and local). Substantial investments are made to build capabilities
and reach effective multiparty agreements on the major environment,
economic, and social issues. The US forms a new Department of the
Environment. Economic impacts are greatest outside the United
States. Tensions between governments in the East and West begin to
fray as it is becoming clear that an entirely new level of
commitment will probably be needed to address the relationship
between people and the planet. Environment and Society Interaction:
DYSFUNCTIONAL An explosion in maritime trade has significant impact
on the natural environment. Coastal populations grow, exposing more
people to severe weather and climate effects. Severe geomagnetic
storms wreak havoc. Water shortages around the world are
exacerbated in many places by biofuels production. Climate change
effects are everywhere. Antarctic ice sheets continue to lose mass.
Arctic sea ice disappears in the summertime. Drought conditions are
more frequent and severe. Ocean acidification is increasing.
Ecosystem disruptions lead to territorial conflicts in Africa, the
Middle East, and Central Asia.
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 26 2009-20202021-2035 Nature and Mix of
Economy: SMART GROWTH Green markets flourish. Major multinationals,
venture capital firms, and state-owned enterprises in Asia invest
aggressively in sustainable development solutions. Carbon taxes in
the US spur innovation, and the consequences from externality
pricing and heavily regulating resource usage do not materialize.
By 2035, global consumers are sophisticated and green, as are many
new industries. Asian players control the biggest market share.
Green goods and services in developed economies are slowly
replacing energy- intensive solutions, while green goods and
services growth in developing countries occurs as a result of their
rapid economic change. Governance and Decision-Making:
FRAGMENTATION Policy makers are overwhelmed by the environmental
and economic uncertainties, but a patchwork of regional and local
policies succeeds. In-fighting among US agencies abounds and the
private sector assumes more government functions. No nation shows
leader-ship as politicians focus on domestic problems. No
international standards for environmental data evolve. The Arctic
nations never reach an agreement on sovereignty claims, development
of the Arctic, and how to best protect the environment. Russia is
constantly using its Navy to try to resolve disputes over the
seabed, navigation, and fishing, but lacks the investment funds to
pursue much industrial development. The US, Canada, and Norway
generally coordinate, but still largely go their separate ways.
Environment and Society Interaction: HARMONIOUS Carbon tax revenue
is returned to individuals by contributing to their retirement
accounts and health care insurance costs. There is a trend of
counter urbanization, with cities losing population to rural areas
because of better living conditions. Economic incentives are also
used by states and federal agencies to change agricultural and
fishing practices. Scientists cant agree on whether abrupt climate
change is taking place. While the changes are muted theyre still
visible in a number of places. Water scarcity is getting worse
around the world, while at the same time demand for food is rising
faster than anyone expected. Fish stocks improve because of new
regulations and commercial innovation.
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N 27 2009-20202021-2035 Nature and Mix of
Economy: BUSINESS AS USUAL In both developed and developing
countries, old economic systems continue to exploit energy for
economic growth. Consumer products like cars and appliances are
cheap due to global demand, global trade agreements, and massive
energy- and water- development investments. GDP growth is the
highest priority, but the US economy falters and deficits rise.
Energy demand rises dramatically, while supply is still mainly oil
and coal. Marine transport activity is increasingly significant
because of economic growth in developing countries and open trade
policies around the world. Arctic waters open, and substantial
industrial activity is already occurring above the Arctic Circle.
Governance and Decision-Making: COLLABORATION Institutions around
the world cooperate on environmental and disaster-relief issues,
but budgets are tight, environmental programs are cut, and
governments struggle to respond to continued catastrophic-events. A
resource race to stake claims on the Arctic seabed spawns new
international agree- ments. The effects of climate change drive new
inter- national GHG agreements with binding commitments. While
progress was initially slow in implementing the GEOSS vision, the
US, EU, and China ultimately agreed to support the effort. A global
environment information utility becomes available. Scientists agree
that large-scale change in the climate system is taking place and
the change cannot be reversed for decades, even with major
mitigation efforts worldwide. Environment and Society Interaction:
DYSFUNCTIONAL Worldwide energy resource exploitation increases
significantly. Hydrocarbon energy resources are further developed
in the US and nuclear generating plants also see major increases.
Water shortages in the developing world are a problem, as are major
catastrophes from floods, earthquakes, and typhoons. Fish stocks
around the world begin to disappear. Sea levels rise, oceans
acidify, droughts persist, Arctic ice disappears in the summer,
cropland dis- appears in many countries, migration patterns in Asia
and Africa change rapidly. Adaptation becomes the most important
issue. A cap and trade system, supported by new climate
observations and models, provides incentive for utilities to
sequester CO2.
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N U.S. Temperature Projections 28 Lower
Emissions Scenario Projected Temperature Change (F) from 1961-1979
Baseline Mid-Century End-of-Century (2040-2059 average) (2080-2099
average) Source: USGCRP, Climate Change Impacts in the United
States (2009), http://www.globalchange.gov
Slide 29
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N U.S. Precipitation: Change in Observed
Average, 1958 - 2008 29 Precipitation has increased an average of
about 5 percent over the past 50 years. Projections of future
precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become
wetter, and southern areas, particularly in the West, will become
drier. Source: USGCRP, Climate Change Impacts in the United States
(2009), http://www.globalchange.gov
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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M
I N I S T R A T I O N Scenario Planning No one can predict the
futurebut we can identify key forces and imagine how they might
combine to form plausible alternative futures Scenarios allow
people and organizations to grasp complex interactions among
economic, political, social, and environmental forces Organizations
use scenarios to choose goals and objectives that respond to
long-term trends and uncertainties about the future 30