NOAA’s Contributions to the Aviation Community Regarding Volcanic Ash

James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & AtmosphereDirector, U.S. Climate Change Science Program

June 21, 2004

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NOAA’s Role in Volcanic Ash Hazards Mitigation

Birth of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)

VAAC Information Sources (Satellite & Non-Satellite)

Volcanic Ash Information Dissemination

Reventador Eruption: Imagery & Sample Ash Products

Example: Washington VAAC Activity in 2003

Future Challenges

“Classic” example of volcanic ash detection from AVHRR, evidence of a hazardous ash cloud thousands of kilometers downwind from the volcano. The cloud was “intact” several days after the main

eruption

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WellingtonDarwin

45 30 15 0 15 30 45 6060759010512013515016518016515013512010575

60

60

45

45

30

30

15

15

75

90

Tokyo

Washington

MontrealLondon

Anchorage

Buenos

Aires

Toulouse

International VAAC Boundaries

0

4

VAACs

Pacific NW WFOs

Other U.S. government agencies including

AWC, DoD (AFWA), FEMA

ACCs FAA

Other VAACs

Airlines, Aviation community

MWOs

Washington & Anchorage VAAC Customers

VAAC = Volcanic Ash Advisory CenterMWO = Meteorological Watch OfficeWFO = Weather Forecast OfficeAWC = Aviation Weather CenterFAA = Federal Aviation Administration

DoD = Department of DefenseAFWA = Air Force Weather AgencyFEMA = Federal Emergency Management

AgencyACC = Area Control Center

Abbreviations:

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GOES, POES & Meteosat thermal IR

GOES & POES PCI (Principle Component

Imagery)

GOES, POESMeteosat &

MODIS Visible

GOES, POES Multi-spectral

Products

TOMS SO2 (NASA)

Satellite-Derived Sources of Information

GOES, POES, Meteosat & MODIS

shortwave IR

OverlaysBoundaries – Countries, Airspaces

Winds – Cloud motion, models, & soundings

Volcano locations

GOES=Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

POES=Polar Operational Environmental Satellite

TOMS=Total Ozone Mapping SpectrometerCIRA=Cooperative Institute for Research in the

AtmosphereMODIS=Moderate Resolution Imaging

Spectroradiometer

VAACs

Abbreviations:

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Abbreviations:

FAA AFTN

AirlinesCable TV

Phone calls,Faxes

News reports

Other VAACs

SIGMETs, MWOs

GTS, FOS,Phone calls

PIREPs

WeatherObservations GTS,

FOS

Volcanologists(Observatories, USGS,

Smithsonian)E-mail, Phone calls

GTS,Phone calls

to GTS, FOS

Internet

Non-Satellite Sources of Information

AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network

ATC=Air Traffic ControlFOS=Family of Services

GTS=Global Telecommunication SystemPIREPS=Pilot ReportsSIGMETs= Significant Meteorological Statements

VAACs

ForecastModels

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WAFs

Internet sitehttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html

FOS

AFTN(FAA circuits)

AWIPS & N-AWIPS(NWS systems)

GTS

Listserv

VAACs

Dissemination of Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs)

AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network

FAA=Federal Aviation AdministrationFOS=Family of Services

GTS=Global Telecommunication SystemWAFs=World Area Forecast Satellite

Broadcast SystemNWS=National Weather ServiceAWIPS=Advanced Weather Interactive

Processing System

Abbreviations:

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Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) for Reventador Eruption

FVXX21 KWBC 031700VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORYISSUED: 2002NOV03/1700Z VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: REVENTADOR 1502-01LOCATION: S0008W07762 AREA: ECUADOR

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 12139FT (3700M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2002/003

INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES-8 IMAGERY. GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE

ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 03/1245Z.

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 03/1615Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL450 N0007W07742 N0002W07700 S0021W07658S0024W07733 N0007W07742 MOVING E 5-10 KNOTS. SFC/FL300 N0007W07742S0024W07733 S0041W07814 S0021W07833 N0007W07742 MOVING SW 20-30KNOTS.

FCST ASH CLOUD+6H: SEE SIGMETS AND VAFTAD

REMARKS: A LARGER ERUPTION OF THE VOLCANO CONTINUES. NOW THATASH IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST WE ESTIMATE THE ASH UP TO FL450. ASH UP TO FL300 IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SW. VISIBLE IMAGERYCONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE DARK CLOUD OVERSPREADING THE TOP OFTHE VOLCANO.

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 2002NOV03/2300Z.

FVXX21 KWBC 031700VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORYISSUED: 2002NOV03/1700Z VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: REVENTADOR 1502-01LOCATION: S0008W07762 AREA: ECUADOR

SUMMIT ELEVATION: 12139FT (3700M)

ADVISORY NUMBER: 2002/003

INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES-8 IMAGERY. GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE

ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 03/1245Z.

OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 03/1615Z

OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL450 N0007W07742 N0002W07700 S0021W07658S0024W07733 N0007W07742 MOVING E 5-10 KNOTS. SFC/FL300 N0007W07742S0024W07733 S0041W07814 S0021W07833 N0007W07742 MOVING SW 20-30KNOTS.

FCST ASH CLOUD+6H: SEE SIGMETS AND VAFTAD

REMARKS: A LARGER ERUPTION OF THE VOLCANO CONTINUES. NOW THATASH IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST WE ESTIMATE THE ASH UP TO FL450. ASH UP TO FL300 IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SW. VISIBLE IMAGERYCONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE DARK CLOUD OVERSPREADING THE TOP OFTHE VOLCANO.

NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 2002NOV03/2300Z.

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Sample VAFTAD

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Case Study: Eruption in Equador

ReventadorReventador

Ecuador

Pacific

Ocean

Dormant since 1976, El Reventador in northeast Ecuador erupted violently on November 3, 2002 sending ash as high as 60,000 feet above sea level. Ash was observed spreading in two directions due to sheering at different levels, threatening aviation routes for thousands of square miles around the volcano.

QuitoQuito

In the above GOES-8 visible imagery loop, ash can be distinguished from weather clouds due to the dark color of the ash.

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Visible & Multi-spectral Signatures for Reventador Eruption

Satellite imagery showing ash from the Reventador eruption.

Figure A shows ash (appearing as a smoky whitish area) in visible imagery at 1615Z.

Figure B is a multi-spectral infrared satellite image taken half an hour later (1645Z). The northeast edge of the ash (which appears in this multi-spectral algorithm as a dark gray/black area) has now extended into Colombia.

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1863 Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) & 814 graphical ash analyses were issued in the Year of 2003.

In 2003, the number of VAA almost doubled (195%) & the number of graphics almost tripled (292%) compared to last year (2002).

This year, VAA were issued for 11 volcanoes: Anatahan in the Mariana Islands, Soufriere Hills in the Caribbean, Tungurahua & Guagua Pichincha in Ecuador, Popocatepetl & Colima in Mexico, Masaya in Nicaragua, Chikurachki in the Russian Kurile Islands as well as, Fuego, Pacaya & Santa Maria in Guatemala.

183

362

162

5525

12 123

673

623

289

111

8647 24 10

Tungurahua

Soufriere Hills

Anatahan

Popocatepetl

Colima

Fuego

Santa Maria

Others

2003 VAAs

2003 Graphics

Washington VAAC Volcanic Ash Support

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Future Challenges

Meet the increasing requirements of aviation community through continued research & interagency collaboration in satellite-based volcanic ash detection including:

Accurate ash height assignments Detection & tracking of SO2 emissions Enhanced ash cloud forecasts Improved timeliness of eruption notification Graphical products for realtime cockpit use

Leverage off future satellite data streams with improved capabilities for enhanced volcanic ash detection & monitoring (e.g. NPOESS)

BACKUP SLIDES

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Infrared (channel 4)

“Three channel product” or “Ellrod product” (channels 2, 4 & 5)

Channel Differencing (channels 4 & 5)

“Reflectivity product” or “CIRA product” (channels 2 & 4)

A B

C D

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Satellite imagery of volcanic ash cloud at all heights.

Satellite technique showing only high level thick ash.

Eruption

Volcanic ash in the Caribbean impacted holiday air traffic from Trinidad to Puerto Rico.

Washington VAAC www.ssd.noaa.gov

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Visible Image of Guagua Pichincha Eruption