NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD

Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov

1

Program Name or Ancillary Text eere.energy.gov

NOAA Technology SummitSilver Spring, MD

Stan CalvertTeam Lead Wind Technology ApplicationWind and Water Power ProgramEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy OfficeDepartment of EnergyNovember 4, 2010

Weather-Dependent Renewable Energy Technologies – Status and Outlook

Wind and Water Power Program eere.energy.gov2

Wind Solar Water Biopower

Large Onshore

Distributed Onshore

Offshore

Concentrating Solar Power

(CSP)

Photovoltaic (PV) Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK)

Ocean Thermal

Conventional

Technology Suite


Presidential Priorities

Economic• Create green jobs through

Recovery Act energy projects

• Double renewable energy generation by 2012

• Weatherize one million homes annually

Environmental• Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050

• Make the US a leader on climate change

Energy Security• Deploy the cheapest, cleanest,

fastest energy source – energy efficiency

• One million plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2015

• Develop the next generation of sustainable biofuels and infrastructure

• Increase fuel economy for vehicles

Energy efficiency and renewable energy research, development, and deployment activities help the Nation meet its economic, energy security, and environmental

challenges concurrently.

Presidential Priorities


Energy Mix Analysis

RenewablesTechnologiesRenewablesTechnologies


DOE Strategy: Wind

Large Scale use of

Wind Energy


DOE Strategy: Solar

Photovoltaics (PV)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

Market TransformationSystem Integration

Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use -

Centralized Generation - large users or utilities -


Cost-Effective & Sustainable

Domestic MHK

Industry

System Development,

Testing, &Verification Technology

Characterization & Evaluation

Resource Assessments

Environmental &Siting

Economic Analysis &

Market Development

Test Centers & Facilities

Research Tools & Models

DOE Strategy: MHK


Variable Renewable Energy – Electric Power System Challenges

•Transmission capacity- Resources often distant from

demand

• Variability

• Uncertainty- Forecasting

• Dispatchability

• Complexity

•Transmission capacity- Resources often distant from

demand

• Variability

• Uncertainty- Forecasting

• Dispatchability

• Complexity


Regulation Ramping Peak shaving, load leveling

Seconds to Minutes Minutes - one Hour Several Hours - one Day

Different Time Regimes Require

Different Integration SolutionsExtreme Case

Integrating Renewables


Improved Pricing

Demand Response

Gas Generation

Coal Cycling

Existing Hydro

Pumped Hydro

Gas Storage

Increasing RE Penetration

LowCost

HighCost

Relative order conceptual

IceHeat

Heating

Transportation

Demand Side Flexibility

Supply Side Flexibility

CSP

Markets

Thermal

Storage

New

Loads

Electricity

Storage

Electricity

Storage

Existing

Storage

RE

Curtailment

Thermal

Storage

Flexible

Generation

Flexibility Supply Curve


Short-Term Vision for Power Grid Planning and Operations

~ minutes~ seconds~ seconds ~ minutes~ seconds~ seconds

~ hours < 1 hour < 1 hour

SCADA Parallel State

Estimation

Parallel Contingency

Analysis

Operator

Real-TimeMarket

Operation

Violations

Constrained solutions

~ seconds Time to ImplementationNow 5 yrs 10 yrs

Off-line Transient/VoltageStability Analysis

Ratings & Limitsseasonal

Normal operations• Improved asset utilization

• Enabled market opportunities • Anticipate emergencies

Emergency operations• Prevent/mitigate failures

faststatic

Expanded Resource and

Policy Planning


Wind ResourceCharacterization

• Resource assessment• Mesoscale modeling• Forecasting - DOE/NOAA Project

Grid System Operations

• Analysis methods and tools• Mitigation strategies

–Forecasting application–Increasing system flexibility–Stochastic models–Grid stability

Grid System Planning

• Interconnection studies • System expansion studies• Planning assistance• Generator modeling

Technical Outreach•Operators•Planners•ISOs, RTOs•IEEE

•Regulators•Legislators•Universities•IEA

DOE Wind Integration R&D


DOE National Laboratories

IN


Solar Energy Grid Integration - PV


• Inter-Agency Working Group to address weather-dependent and oceanic renewable energy resource characterization needs

• Inform national observations network development to meet renewable needs

• Addressing micrositing and array challenges to maximize energy production and reliability

• Investigate mesoscale atmospheric processes to support advanced forecasting methods

• Climate change assessment for impacts on future renewable energy resources

Resource Characterization Needs

DOE and NOAA expanding partnership to address these needs for weather-dependent and oceanic resources

DOE and NOAA expanding partnership to address these needs for weather-dependent and oceanic resources

Wind and Water Power Program eere.energy.gov16 16

Objectives

Motivation

Enhancing Short Term Wind Energy Forecasting For Improved Utility Operations

1. Increased accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind forecasts

2. Determine resultant economic benefits to electric power system operations.

3. Inform efforts to define national-scale mesonet weather data systems needed to support wind energy forecasting.

Substantial savings in annual electric power system production costs can be achieved with improved accuracy of wind forecasts in the range of 0 to 6 hours ahead

DOE/NOAA Short Term (0-6hr ahead)Forecasting Project

800 km800 km

800

km80

0 km

Gov’tSupplied

Data

AdditionalData

Gov’t DataAssimilation

And Modeling

Gov’tOutput

Metric/BenefitAnalysis

RecipientOutput

Metric/BenefitAnalysis

Operational Application of

Improved Forecast

= Areas of Recipient Participation


Short Term Forecasting Project

AWS

WindLogics• AWS Truepower Team – MESO, Inc.,

ERCOT (BA), Texas Tech U., Oklahoma U., NC State U., ICF Incorporated, NREL

• WindLogics Team – NextEra, South Dakota State U., MISO (BA), Itaska Technology, Campbell Scientific, NREL

• Schedule –– Target Observing – Now through 1/11– Field Survey – 1/11 – 3/11– Deployment – 3/11 – 3/12– Economic and Data Analysis – 3/11 – 8/12


• Other Resource Characterization Projects– Resource Assessment– Complex Terrain Characterization– Inflow and Wake Observations– Advanced Forecasting Techniques (incorporation

into Ops)– Data Acquisition, Assimilation, Networks,

Archiving– Climatic Impacts of Very Large Wind Farms

• Performers– Government (DOE, NSF, NOAA)– Government Laboratories– Universities– Industry Consortiums (both public/private

funded)

Wind Resource Characterization Projects


Integration Modeling and Analysis

Operational Strategies

Balancing Area Analysis

Storage Analysis

• Wind Plant System Design and Protection• Midwest/Great Plains RE Integration Support• Upgrade NWTC Research Turbines • WECC Variable Generation Subcommittee

Example projects for FY11

Grid Integration Activities

Grid System OperationsGrid System Operations


• WWSIS and EWITS Phase 2 Studies• Concurrent Cooling Models• Generator Modeling and Validation • Renewable Energy Zone Support

Example projects for FY11

Integration Studies

Renewable Energy Zones

System Planning Support

Increasing Existing Transmission

System Capacity

Renewable Scenario Modeling

Grid Integration Activities

Grid System PlanningGrid System Planning


Solar Resource Assessment/Forecasting

• Resource assessment for historical and forecast periods– Bankable solar data sets– Quantifiable risk factors– Data uncertainty characteristics

• Forecasting– Sub-hourly – Ground based observations

(radiometers/Total Sky Imagers)– 1-6 hours – Cloud motion vectors from

satellites can be derived from NWP, NAM or WRF models

– 1-3 days – Model outputs from NDFD, RUC, etc.


Wave Energy Converters• Wide variety of conversion

technologies• Floating or submerged• Near-shore or far out to sea

Current Energy Converters• Includes tidal, ocean current and in-

stream hydrokinetics• Typically employs turbine variants

MHK Technology Types


MHK Resource Assessments

Existing Resource Assessments: • Very basic and incomplete; show moderate resource size

Program Supported Detailed Resource Assessments:•Tidal: Georgia Tech – Spring 2011 •Wave: EPRI and Virginia Tech – Spring 2011•Ocean Current: Georgia Tech – Fall 2012•Ocean Thermal: Lockheed Martin – Fall 2012•River Hydrokinetic: EPRI and U Alaska Fairbanks – Fall 2012

Limitations: • Technologies are at an early stage but advancing rapidly…determining under what conditions power generation is technically feasible can be difficult• Lack of data for extreme conditions, survivability


Summary

• Administration energy, economic, and environmental goals driving expanded renewable energy use

• Variability in weather-dependent renewables require changes in planning and operating electric power systems

• Planning, design, and operations for high use of renewable energy requires expanded atmospheric and oceanic information to ensure reliability and minimize cost

• DOE partnering with NOAA and beginning broader weather enterprise collaboration to address renewable needs

Documents

NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD