AMS 23 July 2013

1. Global Observing System2. Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2)3. Data Assimilation & Modeling

Three Major Components of the Numerical

Prediction Enterprise….

Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is

based on numerical prediction

1

NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling

NOAA Science Serving Society….

AMS 23 July 2013

NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission

– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARequired for agency to meet service-based metrics

– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics

(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height

– Operational numerical guidance:Foundational tools used by Government, public and private

industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth

2

Lead Time and

Accuracy!

AMS 23 July 2013

Regional Hurricane

GFDLWRF-NMM

Air Quality

WRF: ARW, NMMNMMB

Dispersion

HYSPLIT

Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

North American Ensemble Forecast System

GEFS, Canadian Global Model CMAQ

Regional NAMWRF NMMB 3D

-VAR

DA

Regional Bays• Great Lakes• N. Gulf of Mexico• Columbia R. Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL3

Global and North American Land Surface Data

Assimilation SystemsNOAH Land Surface Model

Global Spectral3D-E

n-Va

rDA

Global Forecast System (GFS)

3D-V

ARDA

3D-V

ARDA

WRF ARW Rapid Refresh

3D-V

ARDA

WavesWaveWatch III

Ocean HYCOM

Ecosystem Sea Nettles

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Num

ber o

f Nod

es

High Water Mark 2010

24-h Snapshot 20 August 2012

Time of Day (UTC)

00 06 12 18 00

Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer

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CFS NAM GFSGEFS SREF

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AMSU-A & HIRS-3 data

T170L42 (70km) to T254L64 (55km)

T254L64 (55km) to T382 (38km) OSU 2-L LSM to 4-L NOHA LSM

Percentage of Good Forecasts GFS 5-Day 500mb AC > 0.9 v.s. Model Upgrades

T382L64 (38km) to T574L64 (27km)New shallow convection; updated SAS and PBL; positive-definite tracer transport

Flow-dependent error covariance; Variational QC

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Process to Transition Research intoNOAA Operational Model Suite

EMC Change Control Board• Scientific Integrity• Product Quality• EMC Mgmt Approval• ACCOUNTABILITY

Implementation Phase•SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s

•30-day NCO parallelTest code stabilityTest dataflowProducts to NCEP Centers

and EMC code developers•NCEP Centers

Evaluate impactAssessments to NCEP OD

R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase

• 30-day NCO parallel stable• NCEP centers approve• ACCOUNTABILITY•Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval

•ACCOUNTABILITY

Implementation• Generate RFC’s• Submit RFC’s to NCO

SystematicTesting

2013 HWRF pre-implementation Test Plan

Not shown here: HSHAL (HBSE+Shallow Convection) – All 2010 ATL (Jet, 446), HBSE2 (Modified initialization): All 2011 ATL (Jet, 401), HPRD (Oper. HWRF w/new GFS): All 2011 ATL+EP (CCS, 664), H3GP: Stream 1.5, All 2011 ATL+EP (Jet, 800)

Unprecedented T&E of about 10 different configurations, more than 8000 simulations from 64 storms on Jet & CCS Support from HFIP PO for Jet usage, Support from NCO for “devmax” usage on CCS

EXP Description Comments Platform/# of casesPre-Baseline Experiments

TDRP FY12 HWRF + One-Way Hybrid GSI

Run in real-time during 2012 hurricane season (Stream 2.0 Demo). Also included real-time TDR data for 19 cases.

CCS, All 2012 ATL and EP821 cases

HDFL FY12 HWRF + Flux truncation into POM

DTC performed these tests to evaluate the impact of 25% reduction of heat, momentum and radiative fluxes in the operational coupled HWRF-POM

Jet, All 2012 ATL and EP821 cases

P160 FY12 HWRF + Initialization Changes

Improved size correction, modifications to filter domain and use GFS vortex when initial storm intensity less than 16 m/s

Jet, All 2012 ATL and EP821 cases

HNPI FY12 HWRF + New nest-parent interpolations

Revised nest-parent interpolations and improved treatment of variables at nest boundaries

Jet, All 2012 ATL and EP and 6 others from 2010 -11; 988 cases

HNTT HNPI+ New nest movement algorithm

Improved nest tracking based on membrane MSLP and Tim’s tracker. Choice of 8 storms that had difficulty tracking the nest properly

Jet, 8 Selected storms168 cases

HHPC FY12 HWRF + High Frequency Physics Calls

Increased Physics calling frequency from 180 sec. to 30 sec. Third nest size increased by about 20% from 5.5x5 to 7x6.5

Jet, A few selected storms from 2012; 100 cases

Baseline ExperimentH130 All modifications from

pre-baseline experiments 2013 HWRF baseline is based on positive outcome from the pre-baseline experiments described above. Run on three different platforms.

Jet/Zeus/WCOSS, All 2010-2011-2012 ATL and EP 1870 cases each

Physics UpgradesH131 (Final)

H130 + PBL changes HWRF PBL (GFS based scheme) is upgraded to include variable critical Richardson number for improved treatment of PBL height in all weather conditions.

Jet/Zeus/WCOSS, All 2011-2012 and August - October 2010 ATL and EP 1870 cases

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