NGO roundtable meeting 25 th July 2007 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making Agro/Biofuels - more than a red herring - a climate disaster in

NGO roundtable meeting25th July 2007

Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making

Agro/Biofuels- more than a red herring

- a climate disaster in the making

Biofuelwatch

introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Councl



Summary• Climate Change background -

urgency to avoid catastropic climate change

• The “Green Fuel” hype and drivers• Agrofuels are accelerating climate

change• Descending the transport emissions

curve - Demand reduction is key



Emission sources• Deforestation, agriculture and peat• Anthropogenic energy

From Stern

Report



How much warming / ghgs is safe?

• None! Present ‘Radiative forcings’ already over safe levels

• Total Greenhouse Gases – 460 ppm CO2e (CO2 - 384 ppm)

• Total positive radiative forcing from humans – 560ppm CO2e

• 2˚C warming is maximum to avoid runaway climate change – most scientists think 450-550 ppm C02e equivalents is limit

• Jim Hansen (NASA) says 1.8˚C max.- Siberian Tundra close to melting

- C02 already emitted but not forced=0.6˚C• We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago



1950 2000 20501900 2100

Rest of World

India

ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)

OECD minus USA

USA

Contraction and Convergence

Business as Usual (BAU) = Expansion and Divergence

Emissions are contracting

Converging to per capita level

Continue to contract to post carbon era

2000



Runaway Climate Change• Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt• Siberian Tundra melt (Methane)• Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates• Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet• Melting / break up of West Antartica

Ice Sheet• Switching off of Gulf Stream• Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon

sinks



Rest of World

India

ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)

OECD minus USA

USA

The issue is not can we stop climate

change BUT can we stop

catastopic runaway climate change?


Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39

Deep cuts needed – EU, US, China etc

UK emissions

---- Government target____ Friends of the Earth Big Ask 3% annually ____ George Monbiot near linear >4% (90% by

2030) ____ George Monbiot 7% front-loaded (90% by 2030)____ George Monbiot 10% front-loaded (90% by 2030)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

1990 2000 2010 2020

2050 Govt. target : 60% reduction

2010 Govt. target : 20% reduction

The GAP which must be closed



The Green fuel hype

Can agrofuels in road transport AND now rail and aviation make a significant impact to GHG levels?

Exponential Growth



US / EU Policy – going off the graph

EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)

2010 2020

US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)



Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and

promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms

– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics

• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US “Oil independence”

• New global mega-industry and infrastructure– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn)



Do Agrofuels save emissions?• Agrofuel infrastructure is built on

Fossil Fuel infrastructure– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based –

fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions

– Feedstock transport, shipping, ports– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;

process chemicals



Incomplete agrofuel life-cycle studies • Ignores

– Land-use change– Soil erosion– N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer

impact greater in tropics

• Micro studies – don’t scale up– Fuel stock transport miles– Economic/market effects – rape seed oil

in EU is blended with Palm Oil



Poor savings even in isolation• Corn Ethanol – 13% savings –

Berkeley 2006 study– Patzek – actually 50%-100% more CO2

for ethanol than for fossil fuels

•The Red herring or the vegetarian car?! – Consumers conned about making

significant carbon ‘savings’



Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic

Massive emission exports from industralised nations to global South



Emission trickery

Exporting emissions from Northern

transport to Southern agriculture and

landuse

NB: Soil + Peat not included

Agrofuels are accelerating climate change

Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia

Fires to clear land for palm oil, KalimantanPhoto by Nordin, Save our Borneo



Peat drainage and destructionDrainage • Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits

all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands.

Fires • Many set by plantation companies, greatly

accelerate the loss of carbon.

• Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained.



Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction

Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand.

$17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year.

According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices.



Peat Destruction 2

•





Deforestation• “with partial deforestation the entire

landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”.

Conclusion of recent scientific conference

• Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide



Amazon Deforestation and Drought

Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP

Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei





Bio-agrofuels are nonsense at the system level

• THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today– Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre– Total saving = 0.1% saving globally

• Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings

• Same savings can be made by:– Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver)– OR Each driver goes 2 mph slower– OR Tyres inflated properly

• 20% - 50% DEMAND REDUCTION transport sector savings could be achieved in 10-20 years– Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning - work-home

relocation etc



Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key

160

140

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20

1990 2000 2010 2020

Reduce vehicle emissions by 50%

- smaller, more efficient vehicles

Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport

from economy

Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids

Change Supply - Concentrating Solar

Power ?

Current EU energy policy

90% carbon emission reduction needed

URGENTLY!



The Climate Context• 1st generation biofuels

– Very little climate benefit – Often a climate disaster

• Eg Indonesian peat lands• Deforestation tropics• Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment

ready for• 2nd generation biofuels

– 15-20 years to develop– BUT emissions must be cut now– Biohazards (even now in R&D)– Deforestation boreal and temporate

Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION



Networking• What factsheets, lobbying support would be useful for your

organisation?

• Show solidarity with communities in the global South, please sign the call for an immediate moratorium on EU incentives for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU agroenergy monocultures. http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html

• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to [email protected]

• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk ALERTS and RESOURCES eg:– Supporting Paraguayan communities– write to Tesco – Uganda’s Mabira rainforest - sugar cane plantations

• Email us at [email protected] if you would like to get more involved in the campaign.

Documents

NGO roundtable meeting 25 th July 2007 Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making Agro/Biofuels - more than a red herring - a climate disaster in