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NextGen Modeling Requirements. The ATO Perspective. Introduction. FAA Office of NextGen Systems Analysis (AJP-D) Objective: Estimating the monetary benefits of FAA's NextGen investments over next 10 years Platform: Modernized NASPAC Includes demand generation process Question: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Presented to: Nextor NAS-Wide Modeling Workshop
By: Joseph Post, NextGen Systems Analysis
Date: January 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministrationNextGen
ModelingRequirements
The ATO Perspective
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Introduction
• FAA Office of NextGen Systems Analysis (AJP-D) Objective:Estimating the monetary benefits of FAA's NextGen investments over next 10 years
• Platform:Modernized NASPAC– Includes demand generation process
• Question:What modeling improvements are needed to fully realize this objective?
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
What Is NextGen?
Security and DefenseEngines and AirframesBio FuelsAirport InfrastructureATM and Weather
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
FAA NextGen Portfolio
Transformational ProgramsADS-BSWIMNextGen Data CommunicationsNextGen Network Enabled WeatherNAS Voice SwitchRNAV/RNP
41 Mid-Term Capabilities
Airfield Improvements
New Runways
Runway Extensions
Airfield Reconfigurations
7Solution Sets
TBOHigh Density AirportsFlexible Terminal & AirportsCATMReduced Weather ImpactSafety, Security, & Environ.Transform Facilities
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Trajectory-Based Ops
Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.
OI # OI NameNear or
Mid TermBenefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues
102118Delegated Responsibility for Horizontal Separation
Mid Reduces en route controller workloadIncrease sector capacity. Equipment-sensitive capacity possible.
102108 Oceanic In-trail Climb and Descent MidReduces fuel burn, increases cargo capability
Oceanic procedure modeling.
102137 Automation Support for Mixed Environments MidReduces en route and oceanic controller workload
"Big Airspace"
102114 Initial Conflict Resolution Advisories MidReduces en route controller workload, increases efficiency
Increase sector capacity. Efficiency? Efficiency over-estimated.
104102 Flexible Entry Times for Oceanic Tracks MidReduces fuel burn, increases cargo capability
Oceanic procedure modeling.
104120 Point-in-Space Metering MidSmoother traffic spacing yields increased capacity, efficiency.
Time-based metering.
108206 Flexible Airspace Management MidReduced staffing, improved off-nominal operations
Off-nominal operations, dynamic sectorization..
108209Increase Capacity and Efficiency Using RNAV and RNP
MidIncreased en route/terminal capacity and efficiency.
Q routes, additional arrival/departure fixes, increased airport throughput.
Fix balancing, rerouting.
102123 ADS-B Separation Near Increased capacity in GoMex Increase ZHU GoMex sector capacity.Oceanic procedure modeling, helo operations.
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
High-Density Airports
Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.
OI # OI NameNear or
Mid TermBenefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues
102141 Improved Parallel Runway Operations Mid Increased airport capacity Increase airport capacity Changing fleet mix difficult to accommodate.
104209 Initial Surface Traffic Management MidReduced taxi times, redistribution of delay to gate, improved runway balancing
Surface modeling.
104123Time Based Metering Using RNAV/RNP Route Assigments
MidImproved metering yields beter runway utilization
Increase airport capacity
104117Improved Management of Arrivals/Surface/Departure Flow Operations
MidIncreased terminal capacity and runway utilization
Can represent with arrival/departure fixes and airport capacities.
104122Integrated Arrival/Departure Airspace Management
MidIncreased capacity in extended terminal area, imrpoved arrival/departure flows
Can represent with different sectorization and arrival/departure fixes.
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Flexible TerminalOI # OI Name
Near or Mid Term
Benefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues
102140Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD): Wind-Based Wake Procedures
MidIncrease departure rate under specific wind conditions
Increase departure capacity at specified times.
107107Ground Based Augmentation System (GBAS) Precision Approaches
MidIncreased arrival rate for equiped a/c under IMC
Cannot accommodate equipage.
102144Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Arricals: CSPRs
Mid Increased arrival rate. Changing fleet mix difficult to accommodate.
104124 Use Optimized Profile Descent Mid Decreased descent fuel consumption. SIDs/STARs currently being implemented.
107202 Low Visibility Surface Operations Mid Decreased taxi times. Surface modeling.
107117 Low Visibility/Ceiling Approach Operations MidDecreased cancellations and diversions under severe IMC.
Modeling of severe IMC, cancellations, diversions. Cannot accommodate equipage.
107118 Low Visibility/Ceiling Landing Operations MidDecreased cancellations and diversions under severe IMC.
Modeling of severe IMC, cancellations, diversions. Cannot accommodate equipage.
107115 Low Visibility/Ceiling Takeoff Operations MidIncreased departure rate for equiped a/c under severe IMC.
Modeling of severe IMC. Cannot accommodate equipage.
107116 Low Visibility/Ceiling Departure Operations MidIncreased departure rate for equiped a/c under severe IMC.
Modeling of severe IMC. Cannot accommodate equipage.
107119Expanded Low Visibility Operations using Lower RVR Minima
Mid Increased arrival rate under severe IMC. Can be accommodated.
102406 Provide Full Surface Situation Information Mid Increased surface safety. Safety modeling.
104207 Enhanced Surface Traffic Operations Mid Decreased taxi times. Surface modeling.
103207Improved Runway Safety Situational Awareness for Controllers
Mid Increased surface safety. Safety modeling.
103208Improved Runway Safety Situational Awareness for Pilots
Mid Increased surface safety. Safety modeling.
Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Collaborative ATM
OI # OI NameNear or
Mid TermBenefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues
105302 Continuouse Flight Day Evaluation MidIncreased capacity, efficiency, and flexibility.
TFM modeling.
105208Traffic Management Initiatives with Flight Specific Trajectories
Mid Increased capacity and efficiency. TFM modeling.
108212Improved Management of Airspace for Special Use
Mid Increased efficiency. Rerouting.
101102Provide Full Flight Plan Constraint Evaluation with Feedback
Mid Increased flexibility. User preferences and decisionmaking.
103305 On-Demand NAS Information Mid Increased flexibility and safety.User preferences and decisionmaking, safety modeling.
Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Reduce Weather Impact
OI # OI NameNear or
Mid TermBenefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues
103119Initial Integration of Weather Information into NAS Automation and Decision Making
Mid Increased capacity, efficiency, and safety. TFM, weather, and safety modeling.
103116Initial Improved Weather Information from Non-Ground Based Sensors
Mid Increased capacity, efficiency, and safety. TFM, weather, and safety modeling.
Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Transform Facilities
OI # OI NameNear or
Mid TermBenefit Mechanism NASPAC Representation Issues
109402 Remotely Staffed Tower Services Mid Increased capacity during severe IMC. Modeling of severe IMC.
Substantially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Partially addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.Not addressed with current NASPAC NextGen modeling.
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Shortfall SummaryEn Route
– Conflict resolution (inefficiency)– Dynamic sectorization– Off-nominal operations– Re-routing - Tactical
• Fix Balancing• Convective weather
– Storm tops
– Route vs. sector capacity
Terminal– Routes– Inter-arrival time variance– Convective weather– CDTI-Assisted Visual Separation (CAVS)– Severe IMC
• Cat II/III operations• Airport closure• Diversions• Equipage-specific effects
En Route/Terminal– SIDs/STARs
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Shortfall Summary (cont.)Surface
– Gates– Taxiways– Runway usage– De-icing– Tail numbers and delay propagation– Passenger delay
Oceanic– In-trail climb– Separations– Track assignment
Traffic Flow Management– GDPs/Ground Stops
• Probabalistic demand/capacity
– Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs)– Re-routing - Strategic– Miles-In-Trail– Time-based metering
Airline Operations Center– Cancellations– Substitutions– User preferences and decision-making
• Value of flexibility
Federal AviationAdministration
NextGen Modeling RequirementsJanuary 27 2010
Additional Requirements• Improved ease of use
– GUI?• Future fleet representation
– International fleet– Avionics
• Monte Carlo capability– Demand– Capacities– Weather– Routings– etc.
• Visualization• Validation
Any Questions?