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Next Generation Missile DefenseTargets and Threats
Mark A. ClarkDirector
Missile and Space Intelligence Center
August 8th: On This Date in History…
Montenegro declares war on Germany
Great Britain and Russia sign trade agreement
President Truman signs the United Nations Charter
USSR establishes a communist government in North Korea
The U.S. and South Korea initiate a mutual security pact
U.N. Secretary-General announces a cease-fire between Iran and Iraq
The “Good ‘ole Days” ???
21st Century Ballistic Missiles
• Can reach targets inaccessible to aircraft
• Fastest launch-to-target stand-off weapons
• Prestige, profit, coercion, deterrence, and warfighting roles
• Traditional role of long-range missiles is nuclear deterrence• Remains a major role; expanding to more countries
• Improved guidance allows effective use in conventional roles• Counter adversary airpower and deny regional access
• Ballistic missiles increasingly “non-ballistic”• Hypersonic glide vehicles
• Maneuvering reentry vehicles
• The term “ballistic” may go away
Hierarchy of Needsfrom the Perspective of a Ballistic Missile Designer
Survivability(Countermeasures)
Range
Accuracy
Effectiveness(Warhead Effects)
Proliferation of SCUD Missiles and Technology
IraqSCUD B
Al Hussein
SyriaSCUD BSCUD C
EgyptSCUD B
PakistanGhauri
LibyaSCUD B
IranSCUD B
Shahab 1/2/3Qiam-1
UAESCUD B
YemenBurkan
ArmeniaBelarus
KazakhstanUkraine
SCUD B
VietnamSCUD B
AfghanistanSCUD B
USSRSCUD B1950s
North KoreaNo DongSCUD CSCUD B
Recent Ballistic Missile Proliferation
Irrefutable evidence that Iran provided ballistic missiles and other weapons to Yemen
Iranian Materiel Display at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling
Russia
• Maintains a large land and sea based missile force
• Large ballistic missile modernization investment
• New START constrained force–1,550 warheads
• Several new longer-range missiles in development
Russia
• Kinzhal “Dagger” air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) launched from MiG-31
• ICBM force growing• Mobility, survivability, BMD
countermeasures• New, highly accurate missiles with
conventional warfighting roles
China
• Improving capabilities
• Accuracy, payloads, range
• Placed satellites in orbit
• Experience applicable to ICBM development
Iran
North Korea
•Deterrence, warfighting, prestige, profit
•Multiple recent IRBM and ICBM launches
•Developing more solid propellant ballistic missiles
•No missile tests since Nov ‘17
Cruise/Hypersonic Cruise Missiles
Cruise missiles
• Tech proliferation despite international control efforts
• Anti-ship Cruise Missile (ASCM)
– Naval concern, influence shipping lanes, threaten carriers
– Pre-launch: targeting from aircraft/OTH sensor data
– Post-launch: onboard seeker acquires & guides to target
– Faster, stealthier, & more accurate than predecessors
• Land-attack Cruise Missile (LACM) –Pre-programmed & autonomous
– INS paired w/ SATNAV, contour-matching radar, or optical-scene-matching systems
–Low altitudes, treated with RCS/IR signature reducing materials
–New propulsion, navigation, & seeker technologies improve long-range accuracy & lethality
Hypersonic cruise missiles
• India and Russia developing
Brahmos-II
• 165 NM range
• Mach 7 speed
• Scramjet engine propulsion
Russian Kh-101
Brahmos-II
Chinese Cruise Missile
Higher Technology Means More Effective: Or Does It???
Effectiveness
Level of Technology
While designing against modern, technically sophisticated threats, we must also be prepared to engage older,
unsophisticated threats.
Dinosaurs Have Not Stopped Roaming the Earth
The Challenge for the Missile Defense Community
• Be prepared to engage and defeat the technologically advanced threats being developed by our adversaries in the 21st century
Numerous
Fast-paced
Technically Challenging
• Continue to ensure U.S. and Allied defenses are effective against 50+ year old systems, sometimes with modern upgrades
Intelligence support is more important than ever!
2017 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat
Unclassified report available at:
www.nasic.af.mil
Produced by the:Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee
(DIBMAC)