Nexant Complete Report template · Low Special Reports: Brochure -Carbon Mobility: Emerging Automobile Powering Options 1 A50801.010.01 Section 1 Introduction 1.1 THE THREATENING

NexantThinkingTM

Low-Carbon Mobility: Emerging Automobile Powering Options

Brochure April 2014

Special Reports

NexantThinkingTM

Special Reports

Low-Carbon Mobility: Emerging Automobile Powering Options

Brochure April 2014

A50801.010.01 Special Reports

This Report was prepared by Nexant, Inc. (―Nexant‖) and is part of the NexantThinking™ suite. Except where specifically stated otherwise in this

Report, the information contained herein is prepared on the basis of information that is publicly available, and contains no confidential third party

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Copyright © by Nexant Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.

www.nexantthinking.com

Special Reports: Brochure Low-Carbon Mobility: Emerging Automobile Powering Options

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Contents

Section Page

1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1

1.1 THE THREATENING PROBLEM – CLIMATE CHANGE ......................................... 1

1.2 THE SALIENT CHALLENGE – GLOBAL AUTOMOBILE FLEET GROWTH ........... 2

1.3 OVERALL CARBON REDUCTION STRATEGIES ................................................... 3

1.4 LOW CARBON FUEL SOLUTIONS .......................................................................... 4

1.5 LOW CARBON MOBILITY SOLUTIONS FOR STUDY FOCUS .............................. 5

1.6 LIFE CYCLE .............................................................................................................. 6

1.7 HOW IS NEXANT QUALIFIED TO DO THIS STUDY? ............................................ 7

1.8 WHO SHOULD SUBSCRIBE? .................................................................................. 7

2 Report Scope and Coverage .................................................................................................. 8

2.1 OBJECTIVE .............................................................................................................. 8

2.2 SCOPE ...................................................................................................................... 8

2.3 GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS ........................................................................................ 9

2.4 REPORT PRICE ....................................................................................................... 9

3 Proposed Table of Contents................................................................................................... 10

4 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 13

5 Nexant Experience ................................................................................................................. 14

5.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................. 14

5.2 SPECIFIC EXPERIENCE.......................................................................................... 15

6 Contact Details ....................................................................................................................... 18

6.1 CONTACT DETAILS ................................................................................................. 18


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Section 1 Introduction

1.1 THE THREATENING PROBLEM – CLIMATE CHANGE

It is generally accepted that the world is facing an unprecedented crisis in Climate Change as a result of

man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Most of these are carbon dioxide (CO2, or simply

―carbon‖) from burning fossil fuels. After many years of debate, even the leading skeptics are conceding

that climate change may have an impact on them. The public sentiment is generally that this is a

potentially large problem that deserves attention.

In 2007, the United States Supreme Court ruled that GHGs are ―air pollutants‖ as that term is used in the

federal Clean Air Act (CAA). In addition to the main manmade GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and

nitrous oxide), other manmade GHGs include ―black carbon‖ particulates, sulfur hexafluoride,

hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons — though these have much higher global warming potentials,

they are only present in smaller quantities. Other non-manmade effects are from atmospheric water and

clouds. Curbing carbon dioxide emissions is seen as a good focus, as large volumes are man-made.

Table 1.1 shows some GHGs and their global warming potential (GWP).

Table 1.1 GHGs - Their Atmospheric Lifetime and GWPs(1)

Lifetime Global Warming Potential

(years) 20-year 100-year 500-year

Carbon dioxide 30-95 1 1 1

Methane 12 72 25 7.6

Nitrous oxide 114 289 298 153

CFC-12 100 11,000 10,900 5 200

HCFC-22 12 5,160 1,810 549

Tetrafluoromethane 50,000 5,210 7,390 11,200

Hexafluoroethane 10,000 8,630 12,200 18,200

Sulfur hexafluoride 3,200 16,300 22,800 32,600

Nitrogen trifluoride 740 12,300 17,200 20,700

After promulgating several other regulations, the U.S. EPA promulgated the ―Greenhouse Gas Tailoring

Rule‖ to regulate emissions of GHGs through preconstruction and operating permits. In June 2012, the

United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld EPA’s rules relating to GHG

emissions from stationary sources. The court’s decision to uphold EPA’s various GHG rules may

ultimately impact oil, gas, and chemical operations nationwide.

In Europe, the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) is the European Union's regulatory policy to

combat climate change. This is the first and largest international system for trading greenhouse gas

emission allowances, the EU ETS covers more than 11,000 power stations and industrial plants in 31

countries, as well as airlines.

In the absence of global GHG control agreements, many other nations, regions, trade groups, industries,

and individual private companies, public agencies, and NGOs have policy commitments, investment

(1)

U.S. EPA


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initiatives, and projects underway to reduce carbon footprints (emissions of carbon dioxide and other

GHGs).

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, light duty automobiles (e.g., cars, SUVs, and light trucks)

represent the largest share of U.S. transportation emissions, by far as shown in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1 U.S. Transportation Emissions by Source(2)

1.2 THE SALIENT CHALLENGE – GLOBAL AUTOMOBILE FLEET GROWTH

The current global fleet of automobiles in operation, including light trucks, is estimated to have exceeded

a billion in 2010. This means that the fleet was roughly in a ratio of 1:6.75 vehicles to people for a world

population of 6.9 billion, but the distribution was not equal, even among the biggest markets. In the

United States, with a population approaching 310 million, the ratio was 1:1.3, which is the highest in the

world. Italy, France, Japan, and the UK followed, all in the 1:1.7 range. In China, the ratio was 1:17.2

among more than 1.3 billion people, while India, the world’s second most-populous nation with 1.17 billion

people, had a ratio of 1:56.3.(3)

Figure 1.2 presents an estimate of fleet growth rates made in a detailed

model with very well-documented assumptions and based on data from the UN and World Bank. This

shows the highest growth in China, India, and Latin America. It would not be unreasonable to expect an

additional 200 million cars in the fleet by 2020. This is not unprecedented, since prior to the fleet

reaching 500 million in 1986; it doubled roughly every 10 years from 1950 to 1970, when it first exceeded

250 million. This expected growth poses a Carbon Emissions challenge that is not paralleled in other

transport modes or in the other carbon-generating sectors, electric power, and home heating.

(2)

Union of Concerned Scientists, http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/why-clean-cars/global-warming/ (3)

World Vehicle Population Tops 1 Billion Units; Aug 15, 2011 John Sousanis, WardsAuto

Light-Duty

Vehicles

61%

Misc.

3%Military

2%

Freight Trucks

and Buses

18%

Rail

2%

Aircraft

10%

Ships

4%


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Figure 1.2 Expected increase in Car Fleet (2010-20)(4) (% yearly growth)

1.3 OVERALL CARBON REDUCTION STRATEGIES

Vattenfall, a Swedish utility company, performed an analysis that has been referenced by the U.S. EPA

and others, which estimates the costs of achieving carbon reductions by various means going forward,

and was updated in 2010 to assess the effect of the financial crisis. This is shown in Figure 1.3(5)

.

That energy efficiency measures in most sectors define the ―low hanging fruit‖ (negative cost) of carbon

reductions contrasted with expensive ―technology solutions‖ such as carbon capture and sequestration

(CCS), and have the advantage of being immediately implementable with minimum investment.

However, once these measures are exhausted, like light-weighting cars and aircraft and otherwise

increasing efficiency, new low-carbon motive energy solutions for cars need to be considered.

(4)

The Future of World Car Fleet: The Road Ahead, BBVA Research, November, 2012 (5)

―Impact of the financial crisis on carbon economics: Version 2.1 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve‖, McKinsey & Co., 2010.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

China

India

Peru

Colombia Panama

Turkey

Bolivia Paraguay

Chile

Uruguay

Brazil Argentina

Venezuela Mexico

Russia

UAE

Australia United

States Korea

United Kingdom

France Belgium

Spain Switzerland

Italy

Japan

Portugal Germany


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Figure 1.3 Global Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Abatement X-Axis - Measures beyond “business as usual”; GHGs in GtCO2e

1.4 LOW CARBON FUEL SOLUTIONS

For an example of aggressive transportation carbon reduction initiatives, the international aviation

community, both civilian and military, recognizing that hybrid, electric, CNG, or hydrogen energy systems

are not low carbon solutions relevant to aircraft, have committed to reduce the civilian sector’s carbon

emissions to below projected 2020 levels. This is being done by a combination of more fuel-efficient

aircraft designs and flight pattern controls in the short term, and conversion completely to bio-renewable

jet fuel in the long term. With this commitment, bio-jet fuel can be thought of as the non-optional bio-fuel.

Jet fuel also has very demanding specifications. Nexant has recently performed a multi-client study, ―Bio-

Jet Fuel PERP S4, 2013‖ that covers these developments.

This report will address the following technology options as petroleum gasoline substitutes, at various

levels of detail. These options mostly provide renewable energy as fuels to spark-ignited ICE engines

with liquid drop-in gasoline or blendable fractions, CNG/LNG, hydrogen fuel cells, or EV drives:

Conventional petro-gasoline (as a benchmark)

Bioethanol (conventional and cellulosic) – blend options, from E10 to E100

Biobutanol – blend options, from E10 to E100

Renewable drop-in gasoline (bio-reformate or iso-octane) options:

Cool Planet biomass pyrolysis bio-reformate with biochar byproduct

Anellotech biomass pyrolysis BTX

Virent sugar-based bio-reformate

Sundrop Fuels bio-reformate via bio-methanol (MTG)

Primus Energy bio-reformate bio-methanol (methanol to DME to gasoline)


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Siluria methane activation to ethylene to gasoline

Byogy bio-ethanol dehydration to ethylene to gasoline

Sapphire ―Green Crude‖ algae oil sent to conventional refining

Global Bioenergies / Gevo iso-octane

Biomass anaerobic digestion (AD) CNG/LNG fueling

EVs and hybrids using average grid power

EVs using renewable power (e.g., solar PV with battery storage)

Fuel cells using renewable hydrogen

ETOGAS - anaerobic waste digestion with surplus renewable electricity used to make hydrogen,

which is in turn used to reform CO2, producing methane. The methane may be used in NGVs

1.5 LOW CARBON MOBILITY SOLUTIONS FOR STUDY FOCUS

Two of the options considered, Cool Planet and ETOGAS, introduce new ideas with multiple benefits.

Cool Planet – This technology makes biogasoline (fungible bio-reformate) from waste biomass in

dispersed, modular units. It also produces bio-char (also known as Terra Preta), which is being

demonstrated around the world to benefit agriculture by making all types of soils more productive, but

especially poor ones, and reducing required inputs of tillage, irrigation, fertilizers, and pest controls. This

can be very important as water resources dwindle in many agricultural regions largely due to Climate

Change. The Cool Planet approach is carbon-negative through this byproduct of bio-char (that is, it

removes carbon from the atmosphere far more attractively than with CCS), hence the firm’s name of Cool

Planet. The firm is building three commercial facilities in Louisiana.

ETOGAS - This fully tested and commercialized concept is also relatively new and unique among the

competitive solutions considered herein to simultaneously address Energy Storage and/or Low Carbon

Fuel policy initiatives such as the mandates in California, and for these and similar drivers elsewhere.

The ETOGAS idea and the other anaerobic digestion application considered also address the need to

manage agricultural wastes, food processing wastes, and the putrescible organic fraction of MSW in way

that avoids, or at worst minimizes, net GHG emissions.

Audi has invested much downstream in dual fuel cars for it. ETOGAS utilizes only commercialized

technologies besides their own unique reverse reforming module. CO2 is always about half of the biogas

generated in the anaerobic digester (AD), also a highly commercialized technology. Biogas is commonly

either burned as is, or with some cleanup to remove biogenic sulfur, etc., used in a CHP. Alternatively,

the CH4 and CO2 are cleaned and separated, and the CH4 is put into a pipeline as green SNG, or used in

a local NGV fleet. In the ETOGAS-Audi approach, for fungible SNG sent to the pipeline, green credits are

generated through metering and record-keeping.

Fuel cells for cars are not yet fully commercialized, whereas NGVs are being implemented globally. In

contrast to PEMFCs, stationary fuel cells (SOFCs and MCFCs) are being rapidly commercialized because

they can use hydrocarbon fuels, alcohols, even ammonia, etc., and do not need hydrogen in itself.


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1.6 LIFE CYCLE

For each of the priority options selected among those listed, costs and issues will be analyzed and an

appropriate assessment of existing Life Cycle Analyses (LCAs) will be performed on a consistent basis

with a focus on carbon intensity, but also considering other key factors and issues. Table 1.2 shows a

recent estimate made for California of the carbon intensity of various low carbon mobility options(6)

.

Table 1.2 Carbon Intensity of Leading Fuel Options

Fuel/Feedstock Carbon Intensity (g/CO2e/MJ)

Ethanol, Conventional 95.66

Ethanol, CA com 80.70; decreasing by 70.70 in 2016

Ethanol, Low Cl Corn 73.21

Ethanol, Sugarcane 73.40; decreasing to 67.38 by 2020

Ethanol, Cellulosic 21.30¹

Renewable Gasoline 25.00²

Compressed Natural Gas 68.00

Biogas, Landfill 11.56

Electricity, Marginal³ 30.80; decreasing to 26.32 by 2020

Hydrogen4 39.42

¹ The average of CARB pathways for ethanol from farmed trees and forest ways

² Estimated carbon intensity based on stakeholder consultation.

³ Includes the energy economy ratio (EER) of 3.4 for electric vehicles 4 Includes the EER of 2.5 fuel cell vehicles

Carbon intensity per se is mostly related to the CO2 tail pipe emissions generated by fossil fuel burning for

the internal combustion engine-based options, and from greenhouse gas emissions all along the supply

chains for each option, or to GHG emissions for electricity generation.

In addition, there are other important environmental issues associated with each option to consider, such

as:

Gasoline production, logistics, refueling, and use involves also emissions of VOCs and NOx

(ozone smog precursors), CO, a criteria air pollutant, and N2O also as a GHG, as well as many

liquid spills in a year from crude oil to petroleum products

For CNG, natural gas, or methane, is a GHG 23 times more potent in the near term than CO2,

and either conventional as or shale gas involve leaks all their supply chains

Renewable methane sources in general avoid fugitive emissions of the gas, such as in collecting

for use landfill gas (LFG)

(6)

California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Compliance Outlook for 2020, CalETC, June 2013, by IFC International


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1.7 HOW IS NEXANT QUALIFIED TO DO THIS STUDY?

Nexant is highly and uniquely qualified to perform this study by virtue of:

Over fifty years of experience advising the managements of the energy and chemical industries

and related sectors in providing technology development, economic, market, and business

strategy analysis

Expertise in all fossil, synthetic, and renewable fuels, renewable electricity, LCAs, engine

systems, fuel cells, bio-renewable chemicals, electric grid management, batteries, bio-char, public

policy, carbon emissions controls and credit trading, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other

relevant subjects

Offices in all the major industrial and population in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, India,

Southeast Asia, and China

A large library of relevant recent single client and multi-client work, with databases to support this

1.8 WHO SHOULD SUBSCRIBE?

This study will be essential to diverse organizations that are stakeholders in the effects of Climate

Change and technical or policy solutions that can help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, including:

Government agencies with responsibilities to develop or implement relevant policies to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions, or to fund development of lower carbon transportation systems, or to

implement storage technologies, such as state energy agencies and PUCs

Private sector organizations with a stake in, or who are at risk over, low carbon mobility, such as:

Energy companies, petroleum refiners, conventional fuel producers or marketers

Electric utilities

Developers of or investors in renewable electricity (wind, solar, etc.)

Vehicle makers – conventional gasoline, EVs, or CNG vehicles and systems

Fuel cell developers, grid-scale and vehicle battery developers

Developers of and investors in advanced bio-renewable fuel technologies, ethanol and

biodiesel producers, etc.

Developers of biofuels projects, including those aimed at anaerobic digestion and landfill gas

utilization

Academics and NGOs doing research in relevant areas

Any companies trying to decide what kinds of low-carbon vehicle fleets to adopt to meet

corporate carbon reduction goals

Any entity developing, promoting, or attempting to implement hydrogen-based vehicle systems


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Section 2 Report Scope and Coverage

2.1 OBJECTIVE

The study objective is to analyze options for low carbon mobility, in particular, for passenger automobiles,

which as much as possible also address other Megatrend/sustainability needs, such as water shortages

due to Climate Change, aquifer depletions, etc., loss of arable land, accommodating non-dispatchable

renewable electricity generation on the grid, etc., and to understand and compare these both on the basis

of economics and Life Cycle advantages.

2.2 SCOPE

2.2.1 Options for Detailed Analysis

Because Nexant deems them best-in-class, most readily implemented with existing technologies and/or

economic systems, most highly progressed, and/or otherwise salient to achieve the target objectives, the

options that will be analyzed in full economic detail are:

Conventional petro-gasoline (as a benchmark)

Bioethanol (conventional and cellulosic) – blend options, from E10 to E100

Biobutanol – blend options, from E10 to E100

Virent sugar-based bio-reformate

Cool Planet biomass-based bio-reformate

Biomass anaerobic digestion (AD) CNG/LNG fueling

EVs and hybrids using average grid power

EVs using renewable power (e.g., solar PV with battery storage)

ETOGAS - anaerobic waste digestion with surplus renewable electricity used to make hydrogen,

which is in turn used to reform CO2, producing methane. The methane may be used in NGVs

2.2.2 Scope of Analysis

These options represent very diverse ways of achieving the goal of moving people and goods from one

place to another with minimum GHG emissions and other pollution, while providing additional

sustainability, economic, and/or benefits.

For these, Nexant will provide information and analysis for elucidation, including as relevant:

Chemistry, as applicable and relevant

Process descriptions with process flow diagrams

Cost of Production model or other relevant paradigm for economic analysis

Descriptions of mechanical and/or electrical systems

Refueling requirements and costs (both for service stations and end consumers)

Costs of vehicle platform versus conventional

Infrastructure requirements and costs

Commercial history / status of development / technology sources

Market feasibility analysis (review of impediments to market acceptance, and likely path forward)

Review of policies, regionally

Suggested roadmaps for development


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Section 2 Report Scope and Coverage

Any other unique pro or con consideration

2.3 GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUS

The study will be global, with focus on the following countries/regions:

United States (focus on California)

Western Europe (focus on EU)

South America (focus on Brazil)

Asia (focus on SEA and China)

2.4 REPORT PRICE

This prospectus describes Nexant’s multi-client study on Low Carbon Mobility, the scope of the proposed

report, the methodology to be used, and Nexant’s qualifications to perform such a study.

The study is expected to be completed by the end of Q3 2014.


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Section 3 Proposed Table of Contents

Section

1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................

1.1 OVERVIEW ...............................................................................................................

1.2.1 Climate Change/GHG Issues .......................................................................

1.2.2 Renewable Electricity Storage Mandates ....................................................

1.2.3 Other Sustainability Issues / Megatrends.....................................................

1.2.4 Conventional Low-Carbon Mobility Solutions .............................................

1.2 DESCRIPTION OF OPTIONS CONSIDERED .........................................................

1.2.1 Ethanol .........................................................................................................

1.2.2 Renewable Drop-In Gasoline ......................................................................

1.2.3 Biomass Anaerobic Digestion CNG/LNG Fueling .......................................

1.2.4 EVS and Hybrids Using Average Grid Power ..............................................

1.2.5 EVS Using Renewable Power ......................................................................

1.2.6 Fuel Cells Using Renewable Hydrogen .......................................................

1.2.7 ETOGAS - AD plus Surplus Renewable Power to CNG .............................

1.3 ECONOMICS OF ALL OPTIONS CONSIDERED ....................................................

1.3.1 Conventional Gasoline .................................................................................

1.3.2 Conventional Ethanol ...................................................................................

1.3.3 Cellulosic Ethanol .........................................................................................

1.3.4 Biobutanol ....................................................................................................

1.3.5 Virent's Sugar-Based Renewable Drop-In Gasoline ...................................

1.3.6 Cool Planet's Biomass-Based Renewable Drop-In Gasoline .....................

1.3.7 Biomass Anaerobic Digestion CNG/LNG Fueling ........................................

1.3.8 EVs and Hybrids Using Average Grid Power ...............................................

1.3.9 Excess Renewables-Powered EVs ..............................................................

1.3.10 Fuel Cells Using Renewable Hydrogen .......................................................

1.3.11 ETOGAS - AD / Unusable Renewable Power/CNG ...................................

1.4 LIFE CYCLE CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................................

1.4.1 Conventional Gasoline .................................................................................

1.4.2 Conventional Ethanol ...................................................................................

1.4.3 Cellulosic Ethanol .........................................................................................

1.4.4 Biobutanol ....................................................................................................

1.4.5 Virent's Sugar-Based Renewable Drop-In Gasoline ...................................


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1.4.6 Cool Planet's Biomass-Based Renewable Drop-In Gasoline .....................

1.4.7 Biomass Anaerobic Digestion CNG/LNG Fueling ........................................

1.4.8 EVs and Hybrids Using Average Grid Power ...............................................

1.4.9 EVs using Renewable Power .......................................................................

1.4.10 Fuel Cells using Renewable Hydrogen ........................................................

1.4.11 ETOGAS - AD plus Surplus Renewable Power to CNG ..............................

1.5 SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS ..........................................................

2 Introduction...........................................................................................................................

2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE/GHG ISSUES ...........................................................................

2.3 OTHER SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES/MEGATRENDS ...............................................

2.4 CONVENTIONAL LOW-CARBON MOBILITY SOLUTIONS ....................................

2.4 ADVANCED LOW-CARBON MOBILITY SOLUTIONS .............................................

3 Description of Options Considered ...................................................................................

3.1 CONVENTIONAL ETHANOL ....................................................................................

3.2 CELLULOSIC ETHANOL ..........................................................................................

3.3 BIOBUTANOL ...........................................................................................................

3.4 VIRENT'S SUGAR-BASED RENEWABLE DROP-IN GASOLINE ..........................

3.5 COOL PLANET'S BIOMASS-BASED RENEWABLE DROP-IN GASOLINE ...........

3.6 BIOMASS ANAEROBIC DIGESTION CNG/LNG FUELING .....................................

3.7 EVS AND HYBRIDS USING AVERAGE GRID POWER ..........................................

3.8 EVS USING RENEWABLE POWER ........................................................................

3.9 FUEL CELLS USING RENEWABLE HYDROGEN ...................................................

3.10 ETOGAS - AD PLUS SURPLUS RENEWABLE POWER TO CNG ........................

4 Economics of All Options Considered ...............................................................................

4.1 CONVENTIONAL GASOLINE ..................................................................................

4.2 CONVENTIONAL ETHANOL .....................................................................................


4.4 BIOBUTANOL ...........................................................................................................


4.6 COOL PLANET'S SUGAR-BASED RENEWABLE DROP-IN GASOLINE ..............







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5 Life Cycle Considerations ...................................................................................................

5.1 CONVENTIONAL GASOLINE ..................................................................................

5.2 CONVENTIONAL ETHANOL .....................................................................................


5.4 BIOBUTANOL ...........................................................................................................


5.6 COOL PLANET'S BIOMASS-BASED RENEWABLE DROP-IN GASOLINE ...........






5 Policy Considerations ..........................................................................................................

5.1 NORTH AMERICA ....................................................................................................

5.2 SOUTH AMERICA ....................................................................................................

5.3 WESTERN EUROPE ................................................................................................

5.4 ASIA ......................................................................................................................

6 Suggested Development Pathways ....................................................................................

6.1 SWOT ANALYSES ....................................................................................................

5.9 PATHWAYS ..............................................................................................................


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Section 4 Methodology

The evaluations of this study will be based on Nexant’s in-house information and contacts with the

technology developers, vendors, and other experts and stakeholders in the industry, government, NGOs,

trade associations, and other sectors.

Commercial information will be developed from Nexant’s extensive in-house databases, particularly in

conventional gasoline, bioethanol (corn, sugar cane, and cellulosic), CNG/LNG, anaerobic digestion,

biogas and LFG, augmented with selected fieldwork and literature research.

In addition, there is a vast body of information and analysis in the public domain on vehicle and fuel

LCAs, with which Nexant is familiar and will exploit for evaluative analysis.


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Section 5 Nexant Experience

5.1 GENERAL

Nexant uses multidisciplinary project teams drawn from the ranks of our international staff of engineers,

chemists, economists and financial professionals, and from other Nexant groups to respond to the

requirements of each assignment. Most of the consulting staff possesses credentials in both scientific

and commercial disciplines plus substantial industrial experience. The collective talents of our staff are

strategically located and closely linked throughout the world, resulting in valuable insights gained through

a variety of perspectives.

Nexant is an international consultancy and is dedicated to assisting businesses within the global energy,

chemical, plastics, and process industries by providing incisive, objective, results-oriented management

consulting. Over four decades of significant activity translates into an effective base of knowledge and

resources for addressing the complex dynamics of specialized marketplaces. By assisting companies in

developing and reviewing their business strategies, in planning and implementing new projects and

products, diversification and divestiture endeavors and other management initiatives, Nexant helps clients

increase the value of their businesses. Additionally, we advise financial firms, vendors, utilities,

government agencies and others interested in issues and trends affecting industry segments and

individual companies.

The Nexant Group was formed as an independent global consulting company in 2000, combining a

number of companies that had a long history of providing consultancy services to the chemical and

refining-related industries. Nexant’s experience covers all aspects of project development relating to

major refinery, petrochemical, and polymer investments, ranging from grassroots plants to revamps of

existing process units. Nexant’s key offices serving the petrochemical and downstream oil sectors are

located in New York, Houston, London, Bangkok, and Bahrain, and locations for other offices are shown

in Figure 5.1.

Figure 5.1 Nexant Office Locations

HoustonWhite Plains, NY

San Francisco

Washington

Buenos Aires

London

Bahrain

Bangkok

Singapore

Shanghai

Beijing

Seoul

Tokyo

Main Offices

Representative Offices


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From major multinationals to locally based firms and governmental entities, our clients look to us for

expert judgment in solving compelling business and technical problems and in making critical decisions.

Nexant’s clients include most of the world’s leading oil and chemical companies, financial institutions, and

many national and regional governments. Nexant, Inc. is active in most of the industrialized countries of

the world, as well as in most of the developing areas including the Middle East, Africa, and East and

Southeast Asia.

Major annual subscription programs are:

Process Evaluation/Research Planning (PERP)

Biorenewable Insights

Petroleum & Petrochemical Economics (PPE) – United States, Western Europe, and Asia

Polyolefin Planning Service (POPS)

The PERP program covers technology, commercial trends, and economics applicable to the chemical

industry. The program has more than 40 subscribers, including most of the major international chemical

companies. Many of the processes to be analyzed in this multi-client study have been assessed in the

PERP program.

The Biorenewable Insights program covers technology, capacity trends, and economics applicable to the

biorenewable industry. Many of the processes to be analyzed in this multi-client study have been

assessed in the Biorenewable Insights program.

The PPE program provides historic and forecast analysis of the profitability, competitive position, and

supply/demand trends of the global petroleum and petrochemical industry. The program includes

capacity listings and analysis, global supply, demand and trade balances, profitability, competitiveness,

and price analysis and projections for all the major petrochemical value chains. The PPE program is

supported by an internet-based planning and forecasting tool that provides online access to the database

behind the reports of the PPE program.

The POPS program provides reports on the global polyethylene and polypropylene industry. It is

recognized globally as the benchmark source for detailed information and analysis on current

commercial, technical, and economic developments in the polyolefins industry. Coverage includes:

capacity listing and analysis, detailed consumption, supply/demand, trade, operating rates, price

forecasts, technological developments, new products, inter-material substitution, and regional

competitiveness.

5.2 SPECIFIC EXPERIENCE

Chemicals / Biofuels from Corn – Nexant studied for the National Corn Growers Association, under US

DOE sponsorship, potentials for production of chemicals from corn in the near term, including ethanol,

lactic acid, n-butanol, and di-acids.

Hydrocarbon Fuels and Chemicals via Sugar Fermentation: Process Development Assistance/IPO

Technical and Market Due Diligence – For a biotech developer of sugar fermentation routes to C5

hydrocarbon-based vehicle fuels and specialty chemicals, Nexant performed a series of three projects to

provide assistance, including process flowsheet and capex review, troubleshooting, and cost reduction

strategies, product recovery studies, and process safety analyses. This work was followed by an

assignment to estimate total available market volume for the key new product and potential derivatives to

support an IPO offering (successful).

Thermochemical Ethanol via MSW Gasification: Finance Technical Due Diligence - For a syndicate

of international banks arranging financing for a developer of a first-of-a-kind MSW gasification project for


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mixed alcohols synthesis managed to produce all ethanol, Nexant performed technical due diligence of a

unique ―virtual demonstration‖ of process components at separate venues; also assisted previously in

feedstock and market logistics studies and in gasification technology selection.

Ethanologen R&D Stage Gate Evaluation - For the U.S. DOE (EERE), Nexant participated in a peer

stage gate R&D review team intended to guide additional R&D and recommend changes to program

direction or funding to achieve the goal of improved ethanologens

Mixed Waste Plastics to Value-Added Hydrocarbons Process and Project Financial Due Diligence

– A Nexant team evaluated this emerging technology and its first modular implementation in a demo plant

for a Private Equity client. Utilizing microwaves, the process thermally converts mixed plastics wastes,

typically used polyolefin agricultural film and mixed polymer waste containers, to lube base oils, waxes,

and fuels

U.S. AID – Methane-to-Market (M2M) Opportunities for Emerging Economies - Driven by goals of

greenhouse gas emissions reductions and economic improvement, screened and evaluated strategies

and technologies for commercial use of fugitive methane (flare and leaks) from landfills, and anaerobic

decomposition of agricultural and other biomass, gas production, processing and pipelines, coal seams

and mining; Nexant analyzed LFG and other fugitive methane sources and considered the role of the UN

CDM program in its abatement

New York Power Authority (NYPA) - For NYPA, Nexant audited and critiqued the economic, technical,

and practical viability in mass transit bus applications of a developing battery technology (zinc-air)

LNG Competition with Clean Diesel Developments for Heavy Duty Vehicles Fueling – For a

multinational industrial gas giant with a developing small scale LNG for vehicle fuel, examined the

environmental, technological, cost, logistics, and practical issues in the threat to LNG from emerging

clean diesel developments at the time, to meet the emissions reduction goals of the regulations

AFV/NGV Implementation Assessment -- For a South American national energy company, in a multi-

phase program driven by urban air pollution concerns, Nexant assessed the technical and economic

feasibility and issues in major implementation of AFVs among buses and taxis in the largest municipality

in the nation. LPG, CNG and LNG-based vehicle and refueling alternatives were screened. Among the

many aspects analyzed in this complex study program were: environmental performance, the quality, and

costs of vehicles, engine, tank and refueling technologies; qualifications of suppliers; comparative

economics; and financing options.

U.S. TDA/PTT Natural Gas Vehicle Development Project – Nexant performed a project sponsored by

the U.S. TDA, to assist PTT in Bangkok, Thailand to define the feasibility of likely bus, truck, and taxi fleet

conversions from diesel, gasoline, and LPG to CNG or LNG and to assess conversion and OEM

technologies for NGV engines, refueling systems, and infrastructure elements. Nexant evaluated

environmental benefits of NGV conversions, and developed a model of health costs of the air pollution in

metropolitan Bangkok; as a follow-up Nexant led a tour of the United States of a group of 12 Thai

dignitaries to visit CNG-based bus agencies/companies and truck and waste collection companies,

vendors of CNG/LNG refueling and engine systems, DOE facilities, and other experts

Ultra Clean Fuels Market Assessment – Confidential Client - For a private U.S. energy company,

sponsored by the U.S. DOE, Nexant mounted a large-scale study of various aspects of using natural gas-

derived liquid fuels - Fischer-Tropsch liquids (diesel and naphtha) and methanol - primarily in

transportation applications, including diesel, spark-ignited ICE, ICE-electric hybrids and fuel cell

technologies, compared with petroleum ultra-clean fuels, CNG/LNG, biodiesel and ethanol. Issues

include fuel manufacturing and vehicle efficiencies, emerging fuel standards, air emissions and other

environmental performance measures, logistics, infrastructure development, testing and demonstration


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history, manufacturing economics, and the R&D and commercialization status of fuel cells, engine

technologies, and tailpipe controls.

LCAs/LCIs – Nexant performed a series of LCAs for diverse organic chemicals (e.g., PO/SM) and

inorganic chemicals (e.g., TiO2), and construction and packaging materials including vinyl, PE, nylon, and

various polyesters; participated in setting up an LCI effort for the CMA plastics producers that took and

managed LCI data from every plastics manufacturing facility in North America

Relevant Multi-Client Studies – Liquid Biofuels: The Next Generation; Biobutanol: The Next Big Biofuel;

Algae: Emerging Options for Sustainable Biofuels; PERP (Process Evaluation/Research Planning)

Program Reports: Bio-Jet Fuel, Biobased Commodity Feedstocks, Ethanol, Biodiesel, Biogasoline,

Biomass Gasification, Stationary Fuel Cells, Mobile Fuel Cells, Chemical Energy Storage (batteries);

Municipal Solid Waste: Using Our Refuse –A broad-based study of the global waste stream, composition,

trends, and resource recovery potentials; focus on process descriptions and technical and economic

feasibility of MRFs and of utilizing the organic fraction of MSW for renewable fuels and chemicals

production via fermentation or thermochemical routes


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Section 6 Contact Details

6.1 CONTACT DETAILS

AMERICAS

Nexant, Inc.

44 South Broadway, 4th Floor

White Plains, NY 10601-4425

U.S.A.

Attn: Ron Cascone

Principal

[email protected]

EUROPE

Nexant Ltd.

1 King's Arms Yard, 1st Floor

London EC2R 7AF

United Kingdom

Attn: Noreen Howat

Consultant

[email protected]

or

Attn: Heidi Junker Coleman

Multiclient Programs Administrator

Tel: + 1-914-609-0381

Fax: + 1-914-609-0399

Email: [email protected]

ASIA

Nexant (Asia) Ltd

22nd Floor, Rasa Tower 1

555 Phahonyothin Road

Kwaeng Chatuchak, Khet Chatuchak

Bangkok 10900

Thailand

Attn: Clive Gibson

Vice President

[email protected]

MIDDLE EAST

Nexant

Level 22, West Tower Building

Bahrain Financial Harbour

King Faisal Highway

Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain

Attn: Graham Hoar

Vice President, Middle East

Tel: + 97-3-1750-2962

Fax: + 97-3-1750-3030

Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]






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Section 6 Contact Details

Nexant, Inc.

San Francisco

New York

Houston

Washington

London

Frankfurt

Bahrain

Singapore

Bangkok

Shanghai

Kuala Lumpur

www.nexant.com

www.nexantthinking.com

Documents

Nexant Complete Report template · Low Special Reports: Brochure -Carbon Mobility: Emerging Automobile Powering Options 1 A50801.010.01 Section 1 Introduction 1.1 THE THREATENING