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NEW PARADIGM OF STATE POLICY IN THE FIELD OF ECOLOGY

AND ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE PROTECTION

Morozov V.E.

Public Council of the Federal Forestry Agency, Moscow, Russia

Aleinikov A.A., Smirnova O.V.

Center for Ecology and Forest Productivity RAS, Moscow, Russia

Anapolsky A.B.

“Nauka” Publishing House, Moscow, Russia,

Vasilov R.G.

Yu.A. Ovchinnikov Society of Biotechnologists of Russia, Moscow, Russia,

Gavrilov V.M.

Zvenigorod Biological Station, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia,

Korotkov V.N.

Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow, Russia,

Makarieva A.M., Nefiodov A.V.

Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, Russia,

Chikunov A.V.

Institute of World Ideas, Moscow, Russia

Translated from https://doi.org/10.7868/S0233361919080020

Global context: An extension of climate agenda

Carbon. In the second half of the twentieth century, scientists discovered that

the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere grows due to fossil fuel

combustion. Carbon dioxide absorbs thermal radiation of the Earth and

partially re-directs it back towards the planetary surface thus warming it. To

study a possible СО2-related global warming the world community allocated

considerable resources. For the first time in history, the humanity expressed a

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concern about its common home – planet Earth.

Water. More than half a century of intense research efforts resulted in

the construction of global satellite and ground surface observation systems,

which began to produce an unprecedented in its extensiveness and detail flow

of data about the state of the Earth’s environment. Comprehensive analysis of

these new data revealed the complexity and incomplete understanding of the

interrelated biogeophysical processes that determine the climate of Earth. It

turned out that the largest uncertainty is associated with atmospheric moisture.

On the one hand, water vapor and cloudiness (solid and liquid atmospheric

moisture) are the main greenhouse substances. Similar to carbon dioxide, they

re-direct thermal radiation back to the Earth’s surface heating it. On the other

hand, clouds reflect a certain part of solar radiation back to space thus cooling

the planet. Without a reliable estimate of the role of atmospheric moisture the

climatic impact of the excessive carbon dioxide cannot be quantified either.

For this reason the phase transitions of water, evaporation and condensation,

have been a major research focus in the meteorological community1.

Forest. When water evaporates at the expense of solar energy, the solar

energy does not convert to heat but goes to overcome the intermolecular

attraction forces in the liquid water. In the result, evaporating surfaces are

cooler than dry ones under otherwise similar conditions. Numerous

observations indicated that evaporation on land is predominantly provided by

the vegetation cover, mostly by forests2. Initially, deforestation was

considered in the climate change agenda from two perspectives only: as an

1Schiermeier Q. (2010) The real holes in climate science. Nature 463: 284-287. URL:

https://doi.org/10.1038/463284a 2Jasechko S., Sharp Z.D., Gibson J.J., Birks S.J., Yi Y., Fawcett P.J. (2013) Terrestrial

water fluxes dominated by transpiration. Nature 496: 347-350. URL:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11983

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additional carbon source (or sink, in the case of forest regeneration) and as a

possible driver of changes in the planetary albedo (how much solar radiation

is reflected back to space). However, the accumulated evidence about the key

role of forests in regulating atmospheric moisture indicates that deforestation

and the replacement of natural forests by secondary forests might have been

profoundly underestimated as possible factors of climate destabilization.

Accordingly, the research at the forest-water interface recently intensified.

Forest as a climate agent

Degradation of natural forests. Indeed, human impact on the global

environment has not been restricted to emissions of carbon dioxide and other

greenhouse substances. The development of our civilization has always gone

hand in hand with the destruction of the natural vegetation cover, mostly

forests. Prior to the fossil fuel era, forest wood served as the energy source for

heating as well as for the internal combustion engines. Another major cause

of deforestation has been the transformation of forest areas into agricultural

lands as driven by the exponential global population growth. Even where land

remained forested, forest cutting caused the uneven-aged tree populations of

the mature natural forests to be replaced by young even-aged stands (Fig. 1).

The highest rates of degradation of natural ecosystems were recorded in the

twentieth century, with concentrated clear-cutting of forests as one of the

major reasons. It was then that the first signs of the modern climate change

became pronounced: the temperature regime getting unbalanced, droughts,

floods and extreme winds.

As of today the so-called Intact Forest Landscapes, which comprise

natural forests fragments of area not less than 50 thousand hectars with

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minimal anthropogenic disturbance3, constitute about one third of the state

forest fund in Russia and have a tendency to diminish.

Fig. 1. Natural intact uneven-aged dark coniferous forests with a stable flow

of tree generations (left) and a post-fire even-aged pine forest (right).

Forest and climate. How can forests influence climate? Forests absorb

and store carbon (taking it away from the atmosphere and thus cooling the

Earth)4, forests absorb solar radiation (thus heating the Earth) and forests

evaporate water. It follows from modern climate models that the first two

factors compensate each other near precisely. The contemporary climatic

impact of forests turns out to be minimal, while global deforestation and

turning the Earth to a desert – without accounting for carbon dioxide

emissions from fossil fuel burning – would have caused a global cooling due

to the increased albedo of the Earth’s surface.

Temperature changes dictated by forests. On the other hand, in

contrast to computer models, analysis of multiyear satellite data has shown

3Zhuravleva I.V., Komarova A.V., Potapov P.V., Turubanova S.A., Yaroshenko A.Yu.

(2016) Mildly-damaged forest areas in boreal forests of the world. The origin,

development, importance and probable future of the concept of mildly-damaged forest

areas with regard to boreal forests. Russian Journal of Ecosystem Ecology Vol. 1 (1).

URL: https://doi.org/10.21685/2500-0578-2016-1-5 4Zamolodchikov D.G., Kobyakov K.N., Kokorin A.O., Aleinikov A.A., Shmatkov N.M.

(2015) Forest and climate. Moscow, WWF. (in Russian)

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that the vegetation cover fully controls the local temperature regime on land.

In 2016 the Science magazine published a study5 with an unprecedented data

volume analyzed. It consistently demonstrated that deforestation leads to

surface warming caused by a reduction in the flux of evaporation. Conversely,

forest recovery cools the land. The average magnitude of these regional

changes – about one degree Celsius over the studied decade 2003-2012 –

exceeds the global mean rate of temperature change by many times.

The water and wind regimes on land are also determined by forests.

Besides, as recent studies have shown, the aggravating deficit of fresh water

in various regions of the world is also related to deforestation. Land loses

water with the river runoff. The moisture flows back from the ocean via the

atmosphere as water vapor. An extensive continuous forest cover, by ensuring

high rates of evaporation and condensation of water vapor, works as a pump

of atmospheric moisture drawing it inland and thus sustaining a stable and

rigorous terrestrial water cycle. In particular, the biotic pump of the Russian

boreal forest belt is responsible for the Great Siberian Rivers running

and determines the water regime over much of Eurasia including

Northern China6. Forest degradation disrupts the regular flow of moist air

inland. This leads to droughts and ultimate desertification in the continental

interior, floods in the coastal regions, hurricanes and tornadoes.

Natural ecosystems as environmental stabilizer

Balance between the biosphere and the technosphere. In 2015 V.V. Putin

speaking at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly noted that imposing

5Alkama R., Cescatti A. (2016) Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global

forest cover. Science 351: 600-604. URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083 6Makarieva A.M., Gorshkov V.G. (2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver

of the hydrological cycle on land. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11: 1013-1033.

URL: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1013-2007

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CO2 emissions quotas is a temporary tactic measure, while the strategic

solution of the climate change problem lies in “restoring the balance between

the biosphere and the technosphere that was disrupted by man”7. These words

anticipated the appearance of empirical data that demonstrated the decisive

importance of forest cover for temperature stability (see footnote 5). In the

same speech, V.V. Putin called to unite efforts of those states that “possess a

strong research base and advanced fundamental science” to solve the climate

problem.

Stability of natural ecosystems. Nowadays natural ecosystems

disappear more rapidly than scientists can study them. Meanwhile the

question of how the natural undisturbed ecosystems – forests, bogs, oceans –

sustain themselves is a major white spot in modern science. Indeed, science

has always been pursuing the goal of how to transform the natural

environment in a most efficient way, rather than to understand the principles

of its persistence. However, stability and sustainability are what make natural

ecosystems distinct from all, without exception, anthropogenic biosystems

including our global civilization.

Russian science. The modern climate change narrative reflects the

vision of those countries that have championed the scientific and

technological progress. Historically, in these countries, the ideas of

anthropogenic transformation of the environment have been most influential;

therefore, the intact ecosystems have been lost. In many countries where intact

forests still exist, there is neither scientific base nor stimuli to study them, as

long as high numbers and, consequently, low living standards of the

population drive a rapid extermination, and selling abroad, of the remaining

7Speech of V.V. Putin at the 70-th session of the UN General Assembly 28.09.2015 URL:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385

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native forests. The situation in Russia is more favorable: there is still much

space occupied by relatively intact forests (Fig. 2) and there are original

theoretical frameworks for their investigation8.

Fig. 2. Intact forest landscapes (IFL) of the world. In Russia IFL occupy over

two million square kilometers or about one fifth of the IFL global area9,10

The multidisciplinary concept of the biotic regulation of the

environment11 was formulated in Russia and is currently developed by an

international group of scientists. This concept provides a quantitative proof to

the statement that the environment on Earth remains suitable for life as long

8Smirnova O.V., Aleinikov A.A. (2012) Successional systems of the boreal forests in

European Russia. Herald of Samara National Center of Russian Academy of Sciences 4:

1367-1370 (in Russian). 9Heino M., Kummu M., Makkonen M., Mulligan M., Verburg P.H., Jalava M., Räsänen

T.A. (2015) Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global

Analysis. PLOS One 10(10): e0138918. URL:

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138918 10Potapov, P., A. Yaroshenko, S. Turubanova, M. Dubinin, L. Laestadius, C. Thies, D.

Aksenov, A. Egorov, Y. Yesipova, I. Glushkov, M. Karpachevskiy, A. Kostikova, A.

Manisha, E. Tsybikova, and I. Zhuravleva (2008) Mapping the world’s intact forest

landscapes by remote sensing. Ecology and Society 13(2): 51. URL:

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art51/ 11Gorshkov V.G. (1995) Physical and biological bases of life stability. Man, biota,

environment. Berlin: Springer. URL: https://bioticregulation.ru/pubs/pubs5.php

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as it remains under the impact of natural ecosystems, i.e. owing to life itself.

The stabilizing power of natural ecosystems is proportional to the area they

occupy. If degradation of natural ecosystems goes beyond the stability

threshold, the environment will degrade to a state unfavorable for human

existence irrespective of the presence or absence of a direct anthropogenic

disturbance like carbon dioxide emissions. Global degradation of natural

ecosystems thus emerges as the primary cause of the regional and global

climates losing stability and climatic cataclysms becoming more frequent.

Recent data on the dominant role of deforestation in the changes of the

regimes of temperature and precipitation (Fig. 3) confirm the predictions of

the biotic regulation concept.

Fig. 3. Biotic regulation of the water cycle on land. Only natural ecosystems

undisturbed by human activities are able to perform fully the regulatory

functions12.

12Makarieva A.M., Gorshkov V.G. (2012) Preservation of the Eurasian forest belt as

Russia’s strategic goal. Energy: Economics, Technology, Ecology, 9(2012), 18-25 (in

Russian). URL: https://www.bioticregulation.ru/ab.php?id=eete12

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Contours of the new paradigm

Complex solution of climate problems. In recent decades, it has become

clear that there are objective technological reasons prohibiting the scenario

when our civilization would give up using fossil fuels13. Not only does the

amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continue to increase, but so does

the rate of fossil fuel burning, too. In such a situation, a complex approach to

climate problems is necessary – the one not confined to attempts of curbing

the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions like a transition to renewable

energy sources, removal of the already accumulated carbon dioxide from the

atmosphere by technological means etc. The complex approach must include

restoration and protection of natural systems as a major measure, since their

degradation can lead to a climatic collapse irrespective of whether fossil fuel

burning continues or not. Any considerable strategic solutions will demand

huge resources from the humanity. So such solutions should be mutually

consistent otherwise the climate situation will just aggravate (for example,

increasing the biofuel production can lead to an intensification of

deforestation).

The neglected ecosystem degradation. The degradation of vegetation

cover as a possible global change driver has until recently remained somewhat

in the shade of carbon dioxide emissions. Modern descriptions of climate

change derive from the mathematical models of atmospheric circulation

developed by technical specialists (mathematicians, programmers and to a

lesser degree physicists). These models contain unknown links between

observable variables; these links are postulated by fitting the models to

13Newell R.G., Raimi D., Aldana G. (2019) Global Energy Outlook 2019: The next

generation of energy. Resources for the Future, 38 pp. URL:

https://media.rff.org/documents/GEO_Report_Web.pdf

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experimental data. (Soviet scientists proposed a distinct approach to climate

change studies based on the analysis of empirically established climatic

analogies but the international community did not accept this approach as the

major one.14). Living systems are many orders of magnitude more complex

than physical systems. The principles along which the living systems work

are not well known. Thus, modern climate models do not allow for a reliable

estimate of the climatic impact of natural forests.

The danger of one-sided approaches. Underestimating the stabilizing

impact of forests threatens climate stability both of the planet as a whole as

well as, in the first place, of the world’s largest forest regions including

Russia. Latest publications of model-derived scenarios “predict” global

cooling for a completely deserted Earth and already begin to warn against

considering forest recovery as a way out of the climatic crisis15. World

mainstream media started spreading the idea that, even though the least

disturbed natural forests are efficient carbon dioxide absorbers as well as huge

carbon pools16,17, carbon absorption could be possibly organized by different

means, especially taking into account that the world is increasingly short of

agricultural land18. Opinions have been circulating that time has possibly come

14Oldfield J.D. (2018) Imagining climates past, present and future: Soviet contributions to

the science of anthropogenic climate change, 1953–1991. Journal of Historical

Geography 60: 41-51. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2017.12.004 15Winckler J., Lejeune Q., Reick C.H., Pongratz J. ( 2019) Nonlocal effects dominate the

global mean surface temperature response to the biogeophysical effects of deforestation.

Geophysical Research Letters 46: 745-755. URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080211 16Griscom B.W. et al. (2017) Natural climate solutions. Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences 114: 11645-11650. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114 17Lewis S.L., Wheeler C.E., Mitchard E.T.A., Koch A. (2019) Restoring natural forests is

the best way to remove atmospheric carbon. Nature 568: 25-28. URL:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01026-8 18The new plan to remove a trillion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere: Bury it.

URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/06/12/new-plan-remove-trillion-

tons-carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-bury-it/ Washington Post 12.06.2019

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for the international programs aimed at forest conservation in poor countries

to close19. Soon, it appears, one can expect even more specific model-based

recommendations as to where forests should be done away with to ease the

consequences of global warming elsewhere.

Regional cataclysms. Those regions where the approval or

indifference of the international community will allow for an extensive

extermination of forests are to be hit first and hardest by climatic cataclysms.

When it becomes clear that, contrary to model predictions, the loss of the

regulatory function of natural ecosystems has also increased the vulnerability

of the global climate as a whole, it can be too late to remedy the situation. It

is necessary to make use of the existing priority in the understanding of the

global situation and to use the precautionary principle. To provide for state

security in the current situation of environmental and climate change it is

necessary to take the following urgent measures on identifying, preserving

and studying the intact (mildly-perturbed) forest landscapes in Russia.

These measures will serve to prevent a rapid deterioration of climate on

the territory of Russian Federation as well as to slow down the global

environmental degradation:

− To define a new legal category of climate-protecting forests

(the least disturbed forest territories performing the climate-protecting

function). To define the strategy for the development of forest industry

accounting for the principle difference between the climate-protecting

forests, on the one hand, and production forests on the other. Climate-

protecting forests are completely exempted from exploitation; they are

19Is REDD ready for its closeup? Reports vary. URL:

https://news.mongabay.com/2019/06/is-redd-ready-for-its-closeup-reports-vary/

Mongabay.com 12.06.2019

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subject exclusively to monitoring and preservation. Production forests

(with an option of creating forest plantations) include tree stands with artificial

and combined regeneration exploited to maximize economic gains with use

of intensive forestry based on modern scientific approaches. It is necessary to

reconsider the existing practices of leasing production forests. Only domestic

companies with a deep wood processing (excluding sawmills) and/or using

advanced (e.g. waste-free) technologies contributing to the intensification of

forestry should have access to forest leasing. To implement these measures it

is necessary to restore in full the federal forestry system able to ensure real

control and protection of forests (on a due scale and with allocated resources

adequate for the tasks).

− National projects “Ecology” and “Science”: to formulate a

new national priority for scientific research “Physical and biological bases of

the stability of environment and life” based on an interdisciplinary approach

to foster collaboration between professionals from different sciences who

currently work each in his own field without a common perspective. It is

necessary to create an international multidisciplinary Center for Life

Stability Research. In education, a course in the bases of life stability should

be compulsory in all universities. New scientific knowledge should become

an essential part of the skills of the decision-makers. In Federal Forest Agency

a permanent unit should be organized for a continuous monitoring of the state

of the climate-protecting forests. Possibly, a similar unit will have to be

established in the All-Russian Research Institute of Forestry and Forest

Industry Mechanization or in some other leading research institute to provide

scientific support for the monitoring process in close contact with scientists

studying functioning of the global and regional ecosystems as well as the

problems of climate and environmental stability.

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− Social Policy: preservation of unique Russian nature can become

a positive agenda uniting Russian citizens; people can participate in

conservation, monitoring and control efforts, exchange experience between

different regions of the country; struggle with pollution remains an essential

part of ecological policy.

− High technologies: developing technologies replacing wood

products (for example, paper from non-woody stuff). Using blockchain to

trace wood transport to exclude illegal forest use. Making meteorological and

ecological databases freely accessible for all.

− State security: preventing climate extremism (global

geoengineering or international commitments that can lead to an ecological

catastrophe in Russia).

− Foreign policy: Russia as an ecological donor to guarantee

climate stability in Eurasia and the world. Russia is a scientific leader in in

environmental stability research (the origin of the concepts of the biotic

regulation and biotic pump). Russian oil and gas industries are significant

contributors to forest conservation (if fossil fuel consumption discontinues

before a breakthrough in new energy technologies, forests will be destroyed

as they almost had been in the beginning of the twentieth century when fossil

fuel industry was still in its infancy). It is important to strengthen collaboration

with China in the field of nature conservation to prevent degradation of natural

ecosystems (the boreal forest pump of atmospheric moisture does not

recognize state borders and works in China’s interests to the same degree as

it does for Russia).

− Uniting countries preserving large areas with intact forests is

another avenue towards a multi-polar world (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Papua

New Guinea, Congo basin countries, Canada).

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Conclusion

Life is the main mystery of the Universe. The unique property of life is

its ability, by taking the form of ultra-complex natural ecosystems, to create

and maintain an environment suitable for its own existence. Nowadays

degradation of natural ecosystems results in a loss of stability and unfavorable

changes of the regional and global environment and climate suitable for

human existence; to these a direct anthropogenic disturbance is added in the

form of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

The mechanism of the biotic regulation of the environment is by many

orders of magnitude more complex than modern civilization20. Biotic

regulation cannot be substituted by technology. The conceptual framework of

the modern strategy of fighting global change is that of sewage disposal: the

focus is on direct pollution with measures including transition to “pollution-

free” renewables while furthering degradation of natural ecosystems to

produce “green” biofuel etc. This strategy does not take into account the

climate-protecting function of natural ecosystem, is incomplete and therefore

dangerous.

Using nature-friendly technologies (see footnote 7) to solve climate

change problems implies estimating the stabilizing potential of natural

ecosystems and preserving them on sufficiently large areas such that their

biotic power is enough to maintain the environment in a state favorable for

life in general and human life in particular. In this green corridor, our

civilization can develop indefinitely using any energy sources and reaching to

the highest technological and intellectual frontiers.

20Gorshkov V.V., Gorshkov V.G., Danilov-Danil'yan V.I., Losev K.S., Makar'eva A.M.

(2002) Information in the animate and inanimate worlds. Russian Journal of Ecology, 33,

149-155. URL: https://www.bioticregulation.ru/common/pdf/info02-en.pdf