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New G rocery F ormat s: Walmart & Be y ond September 3, 2009

New Grocery Formats Pres 0909

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New Grocery Format s :Walm a rt & Beyond

September 3, 2009

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3

Today’s Panel and Webinar Log ist ic s

To ask a question:

 – Click on the cartoon dialogue icon inthe lower right hand corner of your

screen – Type your question in the box

 – Send your question to the host

Al Meyers

[email protected]

Senior Vice President

Sandy [email protected]

Senior Vice President and Manager of the

Food/Drug/Mass, Wal-Mart World™ and

Target programs of the Retail Forward

Intelligence System™

Jennifer Halterman, Senior Consultant with

Retail Forward specializing in the food, drugand mass segments

Audio information Toll-free from within the U.S. or

Canada: (866) 775-2265

Toll call from anywhere: 1 (281) 913-0854

Passcode: 6143554009

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No More One Size Fi t s Al l

From 2006 Retail Perspectives

“Supermarkets: One Size Does Not Fit All”

 — Retail Forward

“Expect the supermarket landscape to look vastly different in 2010 than it does today. The cookie-cutter approach—to store format, layout,

product mix, merchandising, etc.— is out of date. Supermarkets are actively engaged in broadening their store portfolios to meet different shopper needs and shopping 

occasions.” 

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Bui ld ing a Por t fo l io o f Form at s

Convenience

Extreme-value/price-

impact

Upscale/fresh/healthy

Ethnic specialty

Food/generalmerchandise combos

Online

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Supermark et Indust ry Is Look ing for Grow t h

Supermarket Industry Sales Growth and Forecast(in $ Billions)

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce and Retail Forward

Nominal SalesReal (2005)

Sales2003–2008 3.9% 0.6%2008–2014F 2.3% -0.3%

Compound Annual Growth Rate

Real sales growth remains flat 

Nominal Sales

Real (2005) SalesForecast 

$406$418

$435$448

$469

$492 $494$506

$521$536

$550$565

$428 $427$435 $439 $443 $440 $433 $433 $433 $432 $432 $431

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F

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Espec ia l ly as Cent er St ore Is Pressured

Supermarket Category Sales Compound Annual Growth, 2002–2007

Sources: Progressive Grocer and Retail Forward

1Includes: grocery food, grocery non-food and health and beauty care.

Deli

+1.4%

Frozen &Ice Cream

+1.1%

Dairy

+2.6%

Produce

+3.8%

HMR

+3.5%

Center Store1 0.4%

In-storeBakery

+1.2%

Pharmacy

+5.2%

Meat Poultry& Seafood

+0.9%

GeneralMerchandise

+6.4%

40% of store sales

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High Frequenc y Merc handise Is Sold Everyw here

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Shopper s Shi f t Food Shopping Pat t erns

Weekly Shoppers—Supermarket/Food Retailers(Percentage of U.S. primary household shoppers who shop weekly at format)

2007–08Difference

2005–08Difference

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008

5%

5%

8%

9%

28%

41%

6%

5%

8%

28%

45%

4%

4%

6%

24%

31%

4%

3%

7%

7%

25%

37%

9%6%

Health/natural supermarkets

SuperTarget

Specialty food stores/ neighborhood specialty markets

Extreme-value/ 

warehouse supermarkets

Walmart Supercenter

Conventional supermarkets

2005200620072008

-3.6 +4.1

-0.2 +3.4

+0.9 +2.2

-1.0 +1.3

-0.5 +1.9

-1.2 +1.2

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Shopper s Are Eat ing Out Less

Tactics Shoppers Are Using to Save Money on Food/Grocery

25%

40%

Buying more products to

cook from scratch more

often

Eating out at restaurants

less frequently or eating

out at less expensive

restaurants

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2009

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So They Want I t A l l When Groc ery Shopping

Fast

Fresh

Affordable

Grocery Shopping Factors(Percentage of U.S. primary household shoppers who strongly agree/agree with statement)

Prefer buying prepared or conveniencefoods rather than cooking from scratch

Like trying out or shopping in newfood stores

Often try new food products seen inthe grocery store

Want to get in-and-out fast whenfood shopping

24%

26%

28%

37%

51%

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2009

Don’t buy fresh/healthy foodsbecause too expensive

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Shoppers Are Ready t o Try New Food St ores

Shoppers Are Ready to Shop the New Breed of Small Food Stores*

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008

64% 30% 6%Unnamedsmall-format food store

Definitely/probably

will shop

Might or might not shop Definitely/probably

will not shop

*Concept defined to include the following features:

- Specializes in fresh, prepared foods, e.g., "ready-to-eat" or "ready-to-heat and eat" meals- Carries a basic assortment of grocery staples at competitive prices- Carries gourmet, ethnic and organic specialty products- Neighborhood location- Is easy to shop, e.g., plenty of parking, not too big, smaller than the typical supermarket- Has a quick checkout

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And They’re Wi l l ing t o Give Walm art a Try

Shoppers Are Ready to Shop the New Breed of Small Food Stores*

Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008

55%

64%

29%

30%

16%

6%

Walmartsmall-format food store

Unnamedsmall-format food store

Definitely/probably

will shop

Might or might not shop Definitely/probably

will not shop

*Concept defined to include the following features:

- Specializes in fresh, prepared foods, e.g., "ready-to-eat" or "ready-to-heat and eat" meals- Carries a basic assortment of grocery staples at competitive prices- Carries gourmet, ethnic and organic specialty products- Neighborhood location- Is easy to shop, e.g., plenty of parking, not too big, smaller than the typical supermarket- Has a quick checkout

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I t ’s About T im e, and T iming

From 2004 report“Wal-Mart 2010”

 — Retail Forward

“By 2010, Wal-Mart will have a broader portfolio of formats to satisfy more consumer needs and shopping occasions.

“Retail Forward believes several venues ... hold potential for Wal-Mart going forward.” 

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Walm ar t Supercent er Is H it t ing t he Wal l

Walmart Supercenter vs. Conventional Discount StoreUnit Growth and Projection

Sources: Company reports Retail Forward projections

344441

564721

888

1,0661,258

1,471

1,713

1,980

2,256

2,612

2,840 2,9202,980 3,030

1,960 1,921 1,8691,801

1,7361,647

1,568 1,4781,353

1,2091,075

971891

827 777 737 707 682

2,447

2,740

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F

Walmart SupercentersConventional Walmart discount stores

Forecast 

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Uni t Ex pansion Is Slow ing Dow n

+ 157 – 177+ 222+ 305 – 330+ 332 – 340+ 335 – 365Total U.S. Expansion 

+ 15 – 20+ 21+ 20 – 30+ 31 – 33+ 30 – 40Sam's Club

+ 17+ 23+ 15 – 20+ 11 – 12+ 25 – 30Neighborhood Market/Grocery formats

0+ 2+ 5 – 10+ 13 – 15+ 40 – 45Walmart conventional stores

+ 125 – 140+ 166+ 190 – 200+ 277 – 280+ 240 – 250Walmart Supercenters

20092008200720062005Unit Growth Plans

Planned Number of New U.S. Wal-Mart Stores

Sources: Company reports

2005 2009Planned new Walmart Supercenters +250 +125

Planned total new U.S. units +335–365 +157–177

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Sm al l Form at s Wi l l Change t he Food Landsc ape

Source: TNS Retail Forward

Trader Joe’s

Fresh & Easy (Tesco)

The Fresh Market

Sprouts Farmers Market

Sunflower Farmers Markets

Famima!! (FamilyMart)

Giant Eagle Express

Marketside (Walmart)

The Market by Von’s (Safeway)

Urban Fresh by Jewel (Supervalu)

Heartland Pantry (Hy-Vee)

FRESH (Brookshire Grocery)

Schnucks Culinaria

Giant To Go (Giant Food/Ahold)

Small-Format Grocers(illustrative list, not all-inclusive)

Source: yelp.com

Retail Forward 

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Walm ar t In t roduces Market s ide

Four Marketside stores

Open October 2008

Phoenix area

 – Chandler – Gilbert

 – Mesa

 – Tempe

Retail Forward 

Source: www.marketside.com

At Marketside, we provide fresh,innovative answers to the daily 

question, “What’s for dinner tonight?” 

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Prepared Foods Selec t ion Serves as Test Lab

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Serv ic e Sel ls Fresh Com ponent

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Basket Pr ice Bragging Rights

Source: Marketside April 29, 2009 Weekly Flyer

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April 29, 2009 ad (Cinco de Mayo) May 20, 2009 ad (Memorial Day)

Market s ide St ar t s t o Leverage Walmar t Brand

Source: Marketside April 29, 2009 Ad Source: Marketside May 20, 2009 Ad

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A Miss : Edi t ed Assor tm ent , but St i l l Too Much

All photos by Retail Forward 

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A Miss : Pot ent ia l t o Siphon Of f Superc ent er Tr ips

Marketside

Walmart Supercenter 

All photos by Retail Forward 

Walmart Supercenter

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Walm ar t Do ing More t o Cat er t o Loca l Mark et s

2008: Opens Hispanicsupercenter in Garland, Texas

 – Expanded produceselection

 – More ethnic grocery brands

 – Fresh prepared specialtyfood items

Recent introductions

 – Supermercado de Walmart

• Houston, April 2009

• Phoenix, June 2009

 – Mas Club• Houston, August 2009

Retail Forward 

Source: Más Club

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Storefront and Exterior, Includes Outdoor Eating Area

All photos by Retail Forward 

Superm erc ado Ins ide Ent ranc e Suggest s Fresh

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Storefront and Exterior, Includes Outdoor Eating Area

All photos by Retail Forward 

In-St ore Bak ery and Tor t i l la-Mak ing

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Ful l -Serv ic e Meat /But c her Shop

All photos by Retail Forward 

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But Sam e Walm art Case-Ready Meat s Too

Retail Forward 

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In -St ore Prepared Foods “La Coc ina” Is Busy

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Hispanic Grocery Brands Merchandised Side-by-Side with U.S. BrandsFresh Over Frozen: Only One Frozen Ais le

Retail Forward 

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St ore Is Fi l led w i t h H ispan ic Spec ia l t ies

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Hispanic Grocery Brands Merchandised Side-by-Side with U.S. BrandsLarge Baby Area for Young Grow ing Fam i l ies

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Bi l ingual Sign ing and Fam i l iar Pr ic e Message

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Good Idea , But St i l l Feels Very “ Walm art -y”

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Upsca le Produc t s Appeal to H igher Inc om es

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Displays Tai lored t o Af f luent Surroundings Too

Retail Forward 

C

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In t roduc ing Warm er Color Palet t e in Food

All photos by Retail Forward 

T t i C M h di i Ef f t

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Test ing Cross-Merc handis i ng Ef for t s

All photos by Retail Forward 

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P id Sh i t h M l S l t i

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Prov ides Shoppers w i t h Meal Solut ions

All photos by Retail Forward 

Anot her New Conc ept : One ais le $1 or less

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Anot her New Conc ept : One a is le . $1 or less .

All photos by Retail Forward 

Out of St oc k s Suggest Dem and for $1 I t em s

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Out -of -St oc k s Suggest Dem and for $1 I t em s

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Fresh Bak ery and Peet ’s Cof fee

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Fresh Bak ery and Peet s Cof fee

All photos by Retail Forward 

And Many Convenienc e St aples Too

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And Many Convenienc e St aples Too

All photos by Retail Forward 

Giant Eagle Int roduc es Ex press Conc ept

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Giant Eagle In t roduc es Ex press Conc ept

2007: 1st opened inPittsburgh

Now plan 3–5 more

14,000 sq. ft.

Combines elements of:

 – Supermarket

 – Drug store – Convenience store

Retail Forward 

Som e Trad it iona l Depar tm ent s

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p

All photos by Retail Forward 

Lot s of Easy-Prep and Ready-t o-Eat Opt ions

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y p y p

All photos by Retail Forward 

Tem pt ing Ready-t o-Go Meals

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p g y

Retail Forward  Source: Giant Eagle, Inc.

Fi l l s a Convenient Good-for-You Fresh Nic he

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All photos by Retail Forward 

User-Fr iendly Del i Feat ures K iosk

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Giant Eag le Launc hes Upsc a le Market Dis t r ic t

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2007 opening

2 Pittsburgh locations – 3rd unit planned in

Columbus, Ohio

Differentiates on freshand gourmet – Prepared foods

 – Grab-and-go – Gourmet/specialty

All photos by Retail Forward 

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Mark et -l ik e Feel in Produc e Depar t m ent

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Foc us on Fresh Prepared and Gourm et

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Lo t s of Made-t o-Orde r and Grab-and-Go Opt ions

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Nat ural /Organ ic Offer Rivals Whole Foods

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All photos by Retail Forward 

K roger Opens Mor e Fresh Fare St ores

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Opening more units asFresh Fare

Focus:

 – Gourmet/specialty

 – Fresh, prepared

 – Convenience andstock-up

Targets upscale and busy,time-pressed shoppers

All photos by Retail Forward 

Inv i t ing , Upsca le Am bience and At m osphere

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All photos by Retail Forward 

At t rac t ive Disp lays , Convenienc e Of fer  

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Prepared Foods a Plent y

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Target In t roduc es PFresh Prot ot ype

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Convenienc e Selec t ion of Produc e

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Meat Case, L im i t ed Prepared or Tak e-out

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All photos by Retail Forward 

Big Lo ts Int roduc es “ Nex t Genera t ion” Layou t

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Food/Consum ables Is t he Foc al Point

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Bold Signing and Wider Ais les Greet Shoppers

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Toys “ R” Us Debut s “ R” Mark e t

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Retail Forward 

Feat ures an Ex panded Groc ery Assort m ent

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Ot her Househo ld Essent ia ls Are Of fered Too

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Baby Basi c s Moved Up Front for One-St op Shop

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Ex pec t More Food, Food Everyw here

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Sprouts Farmers Market

Sunflower Farmers Markets

Add photo of:Giant To Go

Other?

Shoppers Want I t Al l . .. When They Want I t

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More

Service

For Less

Risk

EffortTime

Price

ConvenienceConsistency

Quality Selection

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2009 St ra t eg ic Out look Conferenc e

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Explore the short-term and long-termimplications of key macroeconomic issuesfor the retail sector.

Discover crucial challenges that lie ahead

in the post-recession retail landscape. Findout how retailers' and manufacturers'growth strategies will need to align.

Leverage the proliferation of socialnetworking and the evolution of in-store

technologies to create more meaningfuland actionable dialog with target shoppers.

Take a tour of new retail business modelsand innovations.

Maximize your digital marketing strategytoday to win online tomorrow.

Membership includes 10 seats!

WHEN AND WHERE:

Sept. 10, 2009—Rosemont, ILSept. 30, 2009—NYC

Oct 15, 2009—TorontoOct. 27, 2009—Bentonville, AR