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New fashion retail channels: how consumers will be buying clothes – forecasts to 2016

2010 edition

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© 2010 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.

New fashion retail channels: how

consumers will be buying clothes –

forecasts to 2016

By Malcolm Newbery

September 2010

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Page iv Table of contents


Table of contents

Single-user licence edition .......................................................................................................... ii

Copyright statement ............................................................................................................... ii Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences ............................................. ii just-style.com membership .................................................................................................... iii

Table of contents ........................................................................................................................ iv

List of figures .............................................................................................................................. vi

List of tables .............................................................................................................................. vii

Chapter 1 Executive summary .................................................................................................... 1

Report theme and contention ................................................................................................. 1 Traditional channels of fashion retail distribution .................................................................... 1

Online retailing ....................................................................................................................... 2 Social networking (sometimes referred to as Web 2.0)........................................................... 2

Estimates of channel share, 2010 .......................................................................................... 3 Why emerging channels threaten the existing retail order ...................................................... 5

Chapter 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6

Chapter 3 Traditional retail channels and their historical evolution ........................................ 7

Retail channels of distribution: a definition ............................................................................. 7 Pre-industrial revolution person to person trade ..................................................................... 7 Early clothing markets ............................................................................................................ 8

Fashion retail shops, pre-organised distribution ..................................................................... 8 Fashion retail shops, post-organised distribution .................................................................... 8 Mail order catalogues ............................................................................................................. 9

General traders (Woolworths to Walmart) .............................................................................. 9 More detail on traditional bricks-and-mortar channels .......................................................... 10

Chapter 4 Channel evolution: The internet since 2000 ............................................................ 11

How it started ....................................................................................................................... 11

The dotcom bubble .............................................................................................................. 11 The second phase ............................................................................................................... 12 Social networking (Web 2.0) ................................................................................................ 13

The success of business on the internet .............................................................................. 14

Channel 5 New retail approaches and new channels to market ............................................. 15

Social networking as a medium for attracting traffic .............................................................. 17 Young-adult fashion and apparel sites ................................................................................. 18 New social networking retail approaches ............................................................................. 19

Chapter 6 Evaluation of channel evolution, 2000-2010 ........................................................... 20

Retail channels in 2000 ........................................................................................................ 21

Page v Table of contents


Retail channels in 2007 ........................................................................................................ 21 Retail channels in the current downturn, 2010 over 2007 ..................................................... 22 Estimating channel shares by region .................................................................................... 23

Channels of distribution: Likely future scenarios ................................................................... 25

Chapter 7 The USPs and characteristics of emerging channels ............................................ 26

The USPs of traditional fashion retailing channels ................................................................ 26 Emerging channels and the internet ..................................................................................... 28 The USPs of emerging fashion retailing channels using the internet .................................... 29

Personalisation ............................................................................................................ 30 Swapping and swishing ................................................................................................ 30

Q&A with Rani Ghosh-Curling of London Frock Exchange ................................... 31

Q&A with Karin Sjosten of iSwish ......................................................................... 33

Chapter 8 Retailers’ current obsession with multi-channel .................................................... 35

Multi-channel has grown up ................................................................................................. 35 Multi-channel: Four key questions for retailers ..................................................................... 35 Multi-channel: Nirvana for brands and retailers? .................................................................. 36

An evaluation of multi-channel in 2010 (Martec) ................................................................... 37

Chapter 9 Cross-channel ........................................................................................................... 39

Multi-channel and cross-channel, what’s the difference? ...................................................... 39 How do shoppers find product in the age of cross-channel?................................................. 40

Chapter 10 Selling through social networking sites ................................................................ 42

The latest multi-channel format is social networking ............................................................. 42 What makes a social company? ........................................................................................... 44

Chapter 11 Evaluation of future channels ................................................................................ 46

Retail channels in 2007 ........................................................................................................ 46 Retail channels in the current downturn, 2010 over 2007 ..................................................... 47 Retail channels in the future 2016 over 2010 ....................................................................... 47

Chapter 12 Why emerging channels threaten the existing retail order .................................. 51

Page vi List of figures


List of figures

Figure 1: Nasdaq share index, 1995-2010 ................................................................................... 12

Figure 2: Most popular websites in all categories, ranked by visits, 2010 (% of total hits) ............. 13

Figure 3: Sources of traffic to Retail 500 (the top 500 US retail sites) ........................................... 17

Page vii List of tables


List of tables

Table 1: Channel evolution trends at retail prices, 2010 over 2007 and 2000 ............................... 20

Table 2: Market value by region at retail prices, 2010 (US$bn and %) ......................................... 24

Table 3: USPs (unique selling propositions) of traditional fashion retail channels ......................... 28

Table 4: Channel evolution trends at retail prices, 2016 over 2010 and 2007 ............................... 48

Table 5: Market value by region at retail prices 2016 (US$bn and %) .......................................... 49 Note: data in tables may not sum due to rounding.

Page 1 Chapter 1 Executive summary


Chapter 1 Executive summary

Report theme and contention

The theme of this report is that the manner in which retailers sell fashion

products to consumers is changing. It is changing at a faster pace than ever in

its history. There has been as much change, as a result of the internet since

2000, as took place in organised retail distribution in the century that preceded

it. Within the next ten years, the entire balance of the conventional structure of

retail shops could be changed significantly. At just-style, we believe that this

could be a seismic shift in the retailing of fashion products, not just a short-

term blip.

Traditional channels of fashion retail distribution

To comprehend what could be happening consumers’ approach to shopping, it

is important to understand how retail distribution has evolved. There have

been seven stages, each characterised by a dominant, or at least important,

way to getting the clothing to the consumer. These are:

1. Pre-industrial revolution person to person trade. If you wanted to

procure clothes in the 18th century, you went to a skilled artisan and

negotiated a price for him or her to make it for you. The garments were

unique to you, a bespoke trade.

2. Early clothing markets, such as Petticoat Lane in London. Clothing

markets were a magnet for groups of people, often immigrants to

create what in today’s jargon would be termed a cluster of skills and

experience.

3. Fashion retail shops, pre-organised distribution. Around the same

period as the Huguenot immigrants were turning Petticoat Lane and

Spitalfields into an apparel manufacturing and trading centre,

individual shops selling made-to-measure clothing started to appear.

4. Fashion retail shops, post-organised distribution. The 19th century saw

the rise of apparel mass production, and with it the start of what is

called ‘organised distribution’, modern retailing as we know it.

Prestigious retailers stared to sell ‘off-the-peg’ standard-sized

garments in numbers as well as made to measure.

5. Mail order catalogues. The same period saw the beginning of ‘new’

organised retail distribution approaches. One that soon became big

Page 6 Chapter 2 Introduction


Chapter 2 Introduction

The theme of this report is that the manner in which retailers sell fashion

products to consumers is changing. It is changing at a faster pace than ever in

its history. Within the next ten years, the entire conventional structure of retail

shops will be changed significantly.

In order to address, analyse and forecast these cataclysmic changes, this just

style report reviews the traditional channels of distribution over the last 300

years in Chapter 3, and then considers the internet selling revolution of the last

decade in Chapter 4.

The nature of these new retail approaches is considered in Chapter 5, and an

estimate made of their various scales for 2010 in Chapter 6. Inevitably, this is a

subjective estimate but one that is based on a wide expanse of anecdotal

evidence.

In Chapters 7-10, the main emerging channels of fashion distribution are

discussed in depth, considering particularly the unique selling propositions of

multi-channel, cross-channel and social networking methods of reaching the

elusive and fickle consumer of 2010. This is followed by an evaluation of the

future scale of traditional and emerging channels by 2016 in Chapter 11, and a

considered opinion in Chapter 12 on whether this is a seismic shift in the

retailing of fashion products, or just a short-term blip.

Page 7 Chapter 3 Traditional retail channels and their historical evolution


Chapter 3 Traditional retail channels

and their historical evolution

Retail channels of distribution: a definition

We think we all know what retail channels of distribution are. However the last

decade has witnessed an enormous change to the old and traditional methods

of reaching the market, in the case of this report taking clothes from the

manufacturer to the consumer. Retail has a B2C (business-to-consumer)

basis, but there have been many ways historically by which that approach has

been executed.

It would be possible to produce a list of retail channels in a multitude of

different formats. Each would be ‘correct’. The list chosen for this report casts

light on why the channels have developed the way they have. This is vital to

understand in order to see the dynamics that are changing the way that retail

channels operate now, and how they may well develop in the future.

The list chosen is:

1. pre-industrial revolution person-to-person trade;

2. early clothing markets;

3. fashion retail shops, pre-organised distribution;

4. fashion retail shops, post-organised distribution;

5. mail order catalogues;

6. general traders (Woolworths to Wal-Mart);

7. minor traditional channels.

The chosen list effectively covers three centuries of the fashion retail industry,

from 1700 to 2000.

Pre-industrial revolution person to person trade

If you wanted to procure clothes for yourself or as a gift in the 18th century,

you went to a skilled artisan and negotiated a price for him or her to make it for

you. The deal was person-to-person. The garments were unique to you, a

bespoke trade. The richer you were, the more flamboyant you could be in the

styling of your clothing, which was immediately recognised as a mark of your

Page 11 Chapter 4 Channel evolution: The internet since 2000


Chapter 4 Channel evolution: The

internet since 2000

How it started

Online shopping pre-dates the PC, Microsoft and Apple, and started without

the benefit of the internet. The first systems were probably as fast as 2010

internet shopping systems but were restricted to dial-up and leased telephone

lines. There was no broadband.

In 1990 Tim Berners-Lee created the first World Wide Web server and

browser. It opened for commercial use in 1991. In 1995 Amazon expanded its

online shopping service, and in 1996 eBay appeared.

The dotcom bubble

Online mushroomed and clothing companies such as boo.com expanded

exponentially, were valued by the stock market at amazing share prices, but

never made a profit. Front-ends and advertising were glitzy and very

expensive. Back-end fulfilment (delivery to the consumer) was sadly wanting.

The dotcom bubble car hit the wall in 2000, as the data given in Figure 1 show.

Page 15 Chapter 5 New retail approaches and new channels to market


Channel 5 New retail approaches

and new channels to market

The biggest issue concerning new retail approaches is whether social

networking offers a new retail opportunity for retailers. Moira Benigson,

managing partner of The MBS Group, a retail executive search firm writing in

The Times on 20 April 2009 clearly thought it did.

She wrote: “There are some bright people who are changing the way that we

in retail do business. Most are young and virtually all use Facebook, YouTube

or LinkedIn. Many also use Twitter, which has more than 6m users. Starbucks

and Nike are two of a growing number of brands that „tweet‟.”

The author is aware that many of us are also ‘making friends’ with brands on

our social networks. When he last looked, Marmite, a beef-based UK spread

topping designed to eat with bread or toast had 231,093 ‘friends’ on Facebook.

According to Rachel Bristow, marketing, communications and buying director

at Unilever, when interviewed in Internet Retailing, Spring 2010 “Consumers

are actively showing their loyalty to the brand. It‟s like wearing a virtual badge

and belonging to a very large loyalty group. For Unilever, it means that they all

chat together, share comments about their Marmite experiences and compare

sandwich filling combinations. It also gives Unilever the chance to entertain a

captive audience.”

There is no definitive answer as to whether these groups have a direct impact

on sales, but Bristow feels confident that it is adding something. Proving it,

however, is a challenge. “Social networking will never take the place of

advertising,” she says.

‘Push’ marketing is easy – the costs of an advertising campaign are finite and

methods of establishing return on investment are proven – but ‘pull’ marketing

is more difficult, because generating ideas and keeping websites refreshed

takes huge effort.

Blake Chandlee, commercial director for Facebook, agrees: “Progressive

brands are seeing social networking as an opportunity to connect with

Page 20 Chapter 6 Evolution of channel evolution, 2000-2010


Chapter 6 Evaluation of channel

evolution, 2000-2010

The year 2000 marks a watershed in the evolution of retail channels. Before

2000, the internet as a sales vehicle was restricted to a few trail-blazing

companies such as eBay and boo.com. They were small, mostly loss-making

and ludicrously overvalued. After most of them collapsed, the second phase of

the internet started properly from around 2001.

The historic trend figures explained and discussed in this chapter are given

below as Table 1.

Table 1: Channel evolution trends at retail prices, 2010 over 2007 and 2000

Date

of

esti

mate

s

Tra

dit

ion

al

reta

il s

ho

ps

Ma

rkets

Cata

log

ue

m

ail o

rde

r

Cata

log

ue

on

th

e

inte

rnet

So

cia

l

ne

two

rkin

g

an

d o

the

r

ch

an

nels

All

dis

trib

uti

on

ch

an

nels

tota

l

Distribution US$bn values at retail prices

W as 2000 xxx xxx xx xxx xxx xxx

W as 2007 xxx xxx xx xx xx xxx

Is 2010 xxx xxx xx xx x xxx

Growth in US$ 2010 - 2007

xxx x xx x x xxx

Growth in % 2010/2007

xxxx xxx xxx xxxx xxx xxx

Growth in % 2010/2000

xxx xxx xxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxx

Distribution % share at retail prices

W as 2000 xxx xxxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

W as 2007 xxxx xxxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

Is 2010 xxxx xxxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

Change in % 2010-2010

xxxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

Source: just-style

Page 26 Chapter 7 The USPs and characteristics of emerging channels


Chapter 7 The USPs and

characteristics of emerging

channels

The USPs of traditional fashion retailing channels

Towards the end of Chapter 5, some of the more well known emerging

channels were listed. They included:

o charity e-tail sites (donate and buy);

o retro and vintage e-tail sites (buy but also share the experiences);

o reusable sites;

o swishing sites (swapping with a social and moral conscience).

However, before looking at these in more depth, it is valuable to restate the

USPs of traditional fashion retailing. This is so because emerging channels

need to provide the consumer with a reason for switching from the traditional

offer.

Bricks-and-mortar retailers with shops come in a variety of guises, including

the main ones which are:

o independent retailers ‘indies’ selling brands;

o chains selling own label;

o department stores doing both;

o supermarkets selling clothing;

o discounters offering low prices and/or ends of ranges.

Each has their own set of USPs for consumers that relate to those values:

o A consumer shopping at an independent boutique will be offered:

o a limited range of brands, but brands which attract and then keep

the loyalty of the customer;

o a specific look and feel to the shop itself;

o attentive, specific and strongly personal customer service;

o deep knowledge of the benefits of the specific brand to the

consumer.

o In contradistinction, a consumer shopping at a multiple chain will be

offered:

Page 35 Chapter 8 Retailers’ current obsession with multi-channel


Chapter 8 Retailers’ current

obsession with multi-channel

Multi-channel has grown up

Ten years ago, in the very early days of the second phase of e-commerce after

the collapse of the dotcom bubble, multi-channel retailing was almost unheard

of. But it has grown and developed within every retail product category,

including fashion apparel. “Today, in the developed world, xx% of organised

retail (this excludes independent retailers and market stalls) have transactional

websites,” wrote Jason Shorrock, BT Expedite’s business development

director, in the 30 April 2010 edition of Retail Week. “For most,” he continued,

“their online store is their largest shop, acco unting for about x% of total sales .”

But in those early days, and in the case of some retailers, even today, the

customers’ shopping experience can be very different. It’s not just the look of

the website offering as against the High Street store; it can be elements as

basic as:

o pricing;

o stock availability;

o ease of payment;

o returns policy.

These are areas that all retailers are now grappling with, because the

consumer expects the same experience from a fashion retailer, whatever the

channel that is being used.

BT Expedite’s Shorrock also states that, from BT research, it has found that

onl y xx% of retailers already have a cross -channel order m anagem ent s ystem ,

in spite of the fact that it is central to managing stock, and providing any form

of click-and-collect service.

Multi-channel: Four key questions for retailers

Most online retailers believe expansion of their sales and marketing efforts

across multiple online channels is critical to their future growth. The wide array

of channels used includes:

Page 39 Chapter 9 Cross-channel


Chapter 9 Cross-channel

Multi-channel and cross-channel, what’s the difference?

pod1 in a white paper of early 2010, stated that “basically cross-channel is

multi-channel joined up. It is where today‟s shopper does not have to register

three times for the same company across its channels, and be counted as a

„different‟ shopper at each”.

According to pod1, a multi-retail consultancy and software provider, some

fashion retailers have started down that joined-up road. UK retail giants such

as Marks & Spencer and John Lewis are investing heavily to create a

seamless cross-channel customer experience. Both are encouraging the

consumer to buy, collect and return goods through any one of the different

channels they offer.

They believe that “such policies not only offer greater convenience to

customers but also educate them to experience the brand seamlessly in their

preferred way. Not every customer interacts in the same way. Indeed, whilst

some consumers will only ever search and buy in stores, others will research

online before heading to the store to buy, or they‟ll buy online or over the

phone and collect in store. Some customers will only ever buy on the phone, or

online, or in the shop but they are using those three areas to interact with the

brand”.

To support this, a brand’s stock system must be central, as just-style argued in

the last chapter and this should also lead to a change in accounting

procedures. At present for most retailers, the marketing and store managers

for the website, for the catalogue, and for the stores are separate and are

unlikely to want to work together.

pod1 add that “John Lewis has recognised that an online sale should be based

on where a person – a customer – is. The company records online sales to the

nearest store to where the item is being delivered. That means that in-store

personnel are beginning to understand and advocate the importance of the

online channel. They know that if it‟s not in stock in store but is online then that

sale will be allocated to them. Just that one piece of accounting policy means

that John Lewis is immediately thinking in multi-channel terms.”

Page 42 Chapter 10 Selling through social networking sites


Chapter 10 Selling through social

networking sites

The latest multi-channel format is social networking

In Chapter 5, a reference was made to an article by Moira Benigson, chief

executive of MBS, who stated: “There are some bright people who are

changing the way that we in retail do business. Most are young and virtually all

use Facebook, YouTube or LinkedIn. Many also use Twitter, which has more

than xm users. Starbucks and Nike are two of a growing number of brands that

tweet. Many of us are also making friends with brands on our social networks.

In Chapter 4, just-style commented that today, eBay and Amazon remain the

most visited retail websites in the UK, even although they now face much

stiffer competition from both online and multi-channel retailers than they did

ten years ago. Social media has definitely been the big winner over the past

ten years but whether that is just as media or whether it includes business also

remains a moot point.

There are a number of arguments that say that retailers that ignore social

networking marketing are seriously missing today’s hottest trend. Gone are the

early days of social media, when employees at the office were busy adding

friends to their Facebook page rather than doing any work. A recent (early

2010) surve y b y dotCommerce of 100 UK retailers found that xx% had som e

kind of social media presence, but that only one-third with a Twitter or

Facebook account actually promoted it on their website. Paul Dunay, global

managing director of services and social marketing at Avaya, finds this

astonishing: In an article published in a spring 2010 edition of Internet Retailing

he stated that: “Facebook has xxxm users, half of whom show up every day.

It‟s a very engaged audience. If I could offer you a billboard in Times Square,

New York or Piccadilly Circus, London for free, you would jump at the

opportunity, so why not take advantage of this?”

Retailers cannot afford to shy away from this medium, according to Hedley

Aylott, managing director of retail and digital marketing agency Summit Media.

In Internet Retailing in Spring 2010, he stated that: “Social media is happening

whether they (retailers) like it or not, but most retailers are not even aware of

Page 46 Chapter 11 Evaluation of future channels


Chapter 11 Evaluation of future

channels

Retail channels in 2007

It is worth repeating the point that by 2007, there had been a sea change in

channel shares. The world total apparel market at retail prices for 2007 had

grown to US$xxxbn (growth of xx%). The channels of distribution of wearing

apparel (clothing) had been revolutionised by the internet. Within the apparel

market in 2007:

o Traditional retail shops (bricks-and-mortar on the High Street)

accounted for US$xxxbn. This was dollar growth of US$xxbn but a

loss of alm ost x% of m ark et share (down from xxxx% to xxxx%).

o Mark ets accounted for US$xxxbn. This represented dollar growth of

US$xbn, but a fall in m arket share from xxxx% to xxxx%. Mark ets are ,

of course, far more important in the developing world. Nevertheless,

their share should not be overlooked in developed countries. In the

UK, m ark ets are believed to account for x% b y value, m aybe xxxx% b y

volume of apparel sales. In Italy, it is rumoured that markets account

for xx% by value.

o Catalogue m ail order accounted for US$xxbn (xxx% as against xxx%

in 2000). Paper catalogues had been in decline since 2000, when the

second wave of internet offers arrived.

o Catalogues on the internet accounted for US$xxbn (xxx% share). This

is a cautious estimate. The hype surrounding internet sales is

deafening, and the reality may be lower, but, there is no doubt that this

has been the channel to market of growth. The percentage growth

figure (xxxxx%) look s im possible, but what it actuall y represents in a

little less than a doubling of size each year; companies such as eBay,

Amazon and ASOS have exceeded that growth rate.

o Social network ing and other channels accounted for US$xxbn (xxx%).

Although this was a small percentage, as a growth percentage since

2000, it is a m ind-bogglingl y enorm ous xxxxxx%. This effectively

means growing by comfortably over two times each year.

Page 51 Chapter 12 Why emerging channels threaten the existing retail order


Chapter 12 Why emerging channels

threaten the existing retail order

The theme of this report has been that there are dramatic, seismic, even

cataclysmic changes about to happen in the retail industry. They will affect its

channels of distribution models. These are models which, until 2000, only

changed slowly and under controlled conditions.

Today we are nearer a state of anarchy, in which entire business models

collapse swiftly and spectacularly, much like the unpredicted collapse of Soviet

communism in Eastern Europe around 1990. The author has personally

experienced two much smaller, but equally dramatic business collapses, in a

company in which he was responsible for product, supply and distribution:

o The company manufactured pen nibs, the pens you used to dip into

ink to write with. Most of the pen nibs were sold to the developing

world, although many went to banks in the UK, which at that time, had

pen nibs and ink on the counters to encourage customers to write

cheques and paying in slips. A Hungarian, named Biro, invented... the

Biro. Within two years, the company’s pen nib business in both the UK

and for export was finished.

o The company held a licence for the Faber-Castell (German) slide rule.

This was a clever device that allowed complex mathematical

calculations to be done physically using a logarithmic scale on a ruler.

Casio came out with the first pocket calculator. Slide rules were in the

dustbin of history within a year.

People tend to always believe that nothing dramatic will change their world.

The author is sure that retailers would like to believe in the permanence of

bricks-and-mortar shops. However, he is equally sure that a generation that is

too young to even understand that there was life before the mobile phone, are

ready to embrace alternative ways of shopping.

So:

o The author’s head goes with the careful forecasts for 2016.

o His heart is concerned about dramatic change.

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New fashion retail channels: how consumers will be New fashion retail channels: how consumers will be buying clothes ... Fashion retail shops, ... modern retailing as we know it. ·