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New Dimension for Offshore Investment1 September 2015
Dr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn
Chief Executive OfficerAsia Plus Group Holdings PCL
Why Invest Globally ?
2
• Diversification
• Products (Equities / Fixed Incomes / Mutual Funds / Property Assets)
• Markets
• Currencies
PROS
• FX Risk
• Political Risk
CONS
• Capital Gains Tax
OBSTACLES
Market Cap Comparison
3As of 24 August 2015
Rank Country Market Cap (Billion USD) % of World % of GDP
World 60,861 100.0 85
1 USA 22,390 36.8 146
2 China 5,462 10.3 52
3 Japan 4,731 7.4 90
4 Hong Kong 3,817 6.6 1,505
5 UK 3,391 5.5 137
6 France 1,931 3.1 69
7 Germany 1,771 2.8 49
8 Canada 1,664 2.7 114
9 Switzerland 1,610 2.5 236
10 India 1,407 2.4 84
11 South Korea 1,077 1.8 91
12 Australia 931 1.6 78
13 Taiwan 745 1.3 183
14 Spain 703 1.1 52
15 Italy 596 1.0 26
16 Brazil 536 0.9 34
17 Saudi Arabia 452 0.7 65
18 Singapore 450 0.7 189
22 Russia 365 0.6 17
25 Malaysia 337 0.6 145
27 Thailand 336 0.5 107
28 Indonesia 303 0.5 46
29 Philippines 227 0.4 94
Macro View - USA
4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Mar
-14
Mar
-15
GDP Growth YoY
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Unemployment Rate
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
ISM Manufacturing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Mill
ion
s
Housing Starts
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Dollar Index
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Export Growth YoY
As of July 2015
Stock Market - US
5
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200Fe
b-9
5
Feb
-96
Feb
-97
Feb
-98
Feb
-99
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 P/E (RHS)
As of 24 August 2015
Stock Market - US
6
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
46
50
400
900
1,400
1,900
2,400
2,900
3,400
3,900
4,400
4,900
5,400Fe
b-9
5
Feb
-96
Feb
-97
Feb
-98
Feb
-99
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Nasdaq Index
Nasdaq P/E (RHS)
As of 24 August 2015
Macro View - Europe
7As of July 2015
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Mar
-14
Mar
-15
GDP Growth YoY
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Unemployment Rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Consumer Price Index YoY
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Au
g-1
2
Dec
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Dec
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Dec
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Manufacturing PMI
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
EUR/USD
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Mar
-14
Mar
-15
Export Growth YoY
Stock Market - Europe
8
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Feb
-95
Feb
-96
Feb
-97
Feb
-98
Feb
-99
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Euro Stoxx 600 Index
Euro Stoxx 600 P/E (RHS)
As of 24 August 2015
Macro View - Japan
9As of July 2015
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Mar
-14
Mar
-15
GDP Growth YoY
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Unemployment Rate
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Consumer Price Index YoY
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Dec
-03
Dec
-04
Dec
-05
Dec
-06
Dec
-07
Dec
-08
Dec
-09
Dec
-10
Dec
-11
Dec
-12
Dec
-13
Dec
-14
Debt as Percent of GDP
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
USD/JPY
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Export Growth YoY
Stock Market - Japan
10
As of 24 August 2015
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000Fe
b-9
5
Feb
-96
Feb
-97
Feb
-98
Feb
-99
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Nikkei 225 Index
Nikkei 225 P/E (RHS)
Macro View - China
11As of July 2015
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
Mar
-10
Mar
-11
Mar
-12
Mar
-13
Mar
-14
Mar
-15
GDP Growth YoY
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Manufacturing PMI
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
House Price Growth Tier 1 YoY
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
USD/CNY
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Export Growth YoY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Outstanding Balance of Margin Purchase and Debt Payment
Trill
ion
Stock Market - China
12
As of 24 August 2015
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
200
1,200
2,200
3,200
4,200
5,200
6,200
7,200
Feb
-95
Feb
-96
Feb
-97
Feb
-98
Feb
-99
Feb
-00
Feb
-01
Feb
-02
Feb
-03
Feb
-04
Feb
-05
Feb
-06
Feb
-07
Feb
-08
Feb
-09
Feb
-10
Feb
-11
Feb
-12
Feb
-13
Feb
-14
Feb
-15
Shanghai Composite Index
Shanghai Composite P/E (RHS)
1615
18
1311
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
USA - S&P500 Europe - Stoxx 600 Japan China Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Thailand
Forward PER
Current PER 12M Forward PER
11 11 1113
914
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
USA - S&P500 Europe - Stoxx 600 Japan China Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Thailand
Forward EPS Growth
EPS Growth 2015F EPS Growth 2016F
Market Valuations
13
Source: BloombergThailand data from ASPS ResearchDate as of 13 Aug 15
Source: Bloomberg Data as of 24 Aug 15
Sectoral P/E Valuations
14
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
Price / Earning S&P 500Stoxx
Europe 600Nikkei
Shanghai
CompositeSET
Financials 16 12 15 8 11
Technology 18 17 16 37 19
Consumer Discretionary 22 17 13 22 21
Telecom 12 20 16 28 19
Consumer Staples 19 19 23 25 22
Healthcare 17 18 36 26 34
Energy 30 13 16 16 8
Utilities 16 13 14 17 14
Industrials 15 16 14 26 22
Materials 15 16 13 34 12
15
Investment Ideas
Example of Asset Allocation
16
Sector Focus USA Financials
Technology
Europe Financials
Consumer Discretionary
Japan Financials & Insurance
Automobiles
China Financials & Insurance
Technology
Europe
USA
Japan
China
Selected Industries / Major Industries
17
Banking Insurance Technology
Automobile Retail Consumer Discretionary
Financials and Banking
18
Attractive Valuations
• Low P/E, P/BV
Strong Balance Sheet
Recovery Indicators
Higher Interest Rates, Higher NIMs upon Recovery
Banking Valuations
19
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
WELLS FARGO US 263 11 1.4 3
JPMORGAN US 223 9.3 0.9 3.1
ING NETHERLANDS 44 11 1.0 6.6
SOCIETE GENERALE FRANCE 30 8.3 0.6 5.5
CREDIT SUISSE SWISS 40 9.3 0.9 3.9
UNICREDIT ITALY 30 9.6 0.6 3.5
MITSUBISHI UFJ JAPAN 89 10 0.7 2.5
SUMITOMO JAPAN 54 8.2 0.7 3.2
ICBC CHINA 226 4.8 0.7 6.8
KASIKORN BANK THAI 11 8.1 1.2 2.8
SIAM COMM BANK THAI 13 8.3 1.3 4.7
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
20
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
WELLS FARGO US 263 11 1.4 3
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
21
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
ICBC CHINA 226 5 0.7 6.8
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
Insurance
22
Attractive Valuations
High Dividend Yield
Higher Market Returns, Higher Profit
Resilience of Investment, Low Volatility
Value of New Policy Growth
Insurance Valuations
23
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
AIG US 74 10 0.6 1.8
SWISS RE SWISS 29 9.6 0.8 6.0
ZURICH SWISS 38 10 1.2 6.4
ALLIANZ GERMAN 56 9.2 0.9 5.5
AXA FRANCE 47 8.9 0.8 5.4
AVIVA UK 29 8.9 1.2 5.5
TOKIO MARINE JAPAN 28 13 0.9 2.3
AIA HK 67 16 1.9 1.5
PING AN CHINA 81 9.5 1.4 1.8
CHINA LIFE CHINA 99 12 1.6 2.9
BANGKOK LIFE THAI 2 14 2.4 2.1
P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)COMPANY MARKET P/E
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
24
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
AIG US 74 10 0.6 1.8
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
25
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
TOKIO MARINE JAPAN 28 13 0.9 2.3
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
Technology
26
Major Investment Theme
High Growth Potential (Online vs. Offline)
Product Innovation
Mega Trend
Social Media, e-Commerce, Wearable Devices
Technology Valuations
27
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
APPLE US 588 11 3.7 2.1
FACEBOOK US 231 30 4.7 0
ALIBABA US 165 25 5.1 0
GOOGLE US 413 18 2.9 0
AMAZON US 217 53 13 0
NETFLIX US 41 206 19 0
SOFTBANK JAPAN 69 16 2.5 0.6
TENCENT HK 160 25 7.0 0.4
SAMSUNG S.KOREA 139 7 0.9 1.9
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
28
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
APPLE US 588 11 3.7 2.1
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
29
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
FACEBOOK US 231 30 4.7 0
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
30
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
GOOGLE US 413 18 2.9 0
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
Automobile
31
Attractive Valuations
Economic Recovery Plan
Model, Technology Innovations
Auto Sales Reaching Record High
Automobile Valuations
32
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
GENERAL MOTORS US 44 5.5 1.0 5.2
FORD US 52 6.8 1.5 4.8
TESLA US 29 96 25 0
DAIMLER GERMAN 66 7.6 1.3 5.1
BMW GERMAN 46 7.9 1.1 4.4
VOLKSWAGEN GERMAN 70 6.3 0.8 4.0
PORSCHE GERMAN 17 4.8 0.5 4.1
TOYOTA JAPAN 195 9.0 1.2 3.3
HONDA JAPAN 55 11.2 0.9 2.6
NISSAN JAPAN 40 8.6 0.9 3.9
P/ECOMPANY MARKET P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
33
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
DAIMLER GERMAN 66 8 1.3 5.1
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
34
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
VOLKSWAGEN GERMAN 70 6 0.8 4
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
35
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
TOYOTA JAPAN 195 9 1.2 3.3
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
Retail
36
Attractive Valuations
Steady Growth Continues in the US
Bottoming Out in the UK and Europe
Worldwide Expansion
Retail Valuations
37
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
WALMART US 206 14 2.4 3.1
COSTCO US 58 24 4.5 1.2
MACY US 19 12 3.8 2.4
HOME DEPOT US 146 21 19 2.0
CARREFOUR FRANCE 18 14 1.7 3.2
SEVEN & I JAPAN 37 23 1.9 1.5
CPALL THAI 12 26 9.4 2.3
CENTRAL THAI 5 19 3.5 2.0
COMPANY MARKET P/E DIV. YIELD (%)P/BV
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
38
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
WALMART US 206 14 2.4 3.1
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
39
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
SEVEN & I JAPAN 37 23 1.9 1.5
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
Consumer Discretionary
40
Economic Recovery
High Profit Margin Business
Beneficiary of EUR Depreciation
Consumer Discretionary Valuations
41
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
STARBUCKS US 75 27 10 1.5
DISNEY US 161 17 3.2 1.3
NIKE US 89 25 6.0 1.1
LVMH FRANCE 65 16 2.5 2.9
HERMES FRANCE 30 28 7.1 1.3
INDITEX SPAIN 80 29 7.4 2.2
ADIDAS GERMAN 12 16 2.1 2.7
FAST RETAILING JAPAN 43 36 6.1 0.8
P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)COMPANY MARKET P/E
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
42
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
LVMH FRANCE 65 16 2.5 2.9
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
43
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
STARBUCKS US 75 27 10.2 1.5
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
44
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stockMARKET ($, Billion)
INDITEX SPAIN 80 29 7.4 2.2
COMPANY MARKET P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%)Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
45
Diversification
Lower Fees
Trades Like a Stock
ETF Valuations
46
Source: BloombergData as of 24 August 15
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
S&P 500 US SPY US 158
NASDAQ US QQQ US 35
EUROPE EUROPE HEDJ US 19
NIKKEI JAPAN 1321 JP 23
CHINA A50 CHINA 2823 HK 4
CHINA H-SHARE HK 2828 HK 6
TICKERETF MARKET
Mutual Funds - EuropeAXA World Funds – Flamlington
Europe Real Estate Securities
^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of July 2015
35%
33%
17%
6%
4%
5%
Sector Allocation
Office Retail Residential Industrial Storage Others90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Au
gust
-13
Oct
ob
er-
13
Dec
em
ber
-13
Feb
ruar
y-1
4
Ap
ril-
14
Jun
e-1
4
Au
gust
-14
Oct
ob
er-
14
Dec
em
ber
-14
Feb
ruar
y-1
5
Ap
ril-
15
Jun
e-1
5
Fund Performance
AXA World Funds - Framlington Europe Real Estate Securities
FTSE EPRA NAREIT Deleloped Europe Capped
Source: Bloomberg / AXA
AXA World Funds – Flamlington Europe Real Estate Securitiesis a master fund of ASP-EUPROP fund by Asset Plus
Performance (%) YTD 1Y3Y
Annualized5Y
Annualized
Fund^ 20 30 83 125
Benchmark 19 29 74 111
Mutual Funds – US High Yield Bonds
48
AXA World Funds – US High Yield Bonds USD Fund
Performance (%) YTD 1Y3Y
Annualized5Y
Annualized
Fund^ 3.07 -0.24 22.7 51.7
Benchmark 2.49 -0.55 21.9 49.7
^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of August 2015
Source: AXA
14%
10%
9%
8%
8%8%7%
36%
Sector Allocation
Energy Basic Industry Healthcare Services
Media Telecom Capital Goods Others
Property Assets
49Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mar
-00
Mar
-02
Mar
-04
Mar
-06
Mar
-08
Mar
-10
Mar
-12
Mar
-14
US and UK House Price Index
UK Nationalwide House Price Index
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index
Source: BloombergData as of March 2015
50